date,candidate,polymarket_pct,poll_pct,divergence_pp 2026-06-09,Lula,40.5,42.1,-1.6 2026-06-09,Flávio Bolsonaro,29.35,33.6,-4.25 2026-06-09,Renan Santos,17.15,6,11.15 2026-06-09,Ronaldo Caiado,1.65,6.9,-5.25 2026-06-09,Tarcísio,0.15,0,0.15 2026-06-09,Romeu Zema,1.95,4,-2.05 2026-06-09,Fernando Haddad,2.85,0,2.85