parse-colombia-wiki.mjs

/**
 * Parser determinístico das tabelas de pesquisas do artigo Wikipedia "2026 Colombian
 * presidential election" (HTML renderizado). Mesma engine do Peru (grid rowspan/colspan-aware).
 * 1º turno (todos os candidatos) + 2º turno (de la Espriella × Cepeda). Verifica contra conhecidos.
 *
 * Entrada: ../../AFOS-Analitica-2026/.cache/col-wiki.html
 * Saída: polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv, polls/colombia-runoff-polls.csv, polls/colombia-polls.json
 */
import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
import { join } from 'path'

const HTML = readFileSync(join(process.cwd(), '..', '..', 'AFOS-Analitica-2026', '.cache', 'col-wiki.html'), 'utf-8')
const OUT = join(process.cwd(), 'polls'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'

// surname-chave -> {name, party}. 'Espriella' antes de qualquer 'de la' genérico; só 1 Cepeda relevante (Iván).
const CAND = {
  'de la Espriella': { name: 'Abelardo de la Espriella', party: 'Defensores de la Patria' },
  'Espriella': { name: 'Abelardo de la Espriella', party: 'Defensores de la Patria' },
  'Cepeda': { name: 'Iván Cepeda', party: 'Pacto Histórico' },
  'Fajardo': { name: 'Sergio Fajardo', party: 'Dignidad y Compromiso' },
  'Valencia': { name: 'Paloma Valencia', party: 'Centro Democrático' },
  'Dávila': { name: 'Vicky Dávila', party: 'Independiente' },
  'Quintero': { name: 'Daniel Quintero', party: 'Independiente' },
  'Vargas Lleras': { name: 'Germán Vargas Lleras', party: 'Cambio Radical' },
  'Galán': { name: 'Juan Manuel Galán', party: 'Nuevo Liberalismo' },
  'Pizarro': { name: 'María José Pizarro', party: 'Pacto Histórico' },
  'Pinzón': { name: 'Juan Carlos Pinzón', party: 'Independiente' },
  'Barreras': { name: 'Roy Barreras', party: 'La Fuerza de la Paz' },
  'Robledo': { name: 'Jorge Robledo', party: 'Dignidad' },
  'Lara': { name: 'Rodrigo Lara', party: 'Nuevo Liberalismo' },
}
const SURNAMES = Object.keys(CAND)

const decode = (s) => s
  .replace(/<sup[^>]*class="[^"]*reference[^"]*"[^>]*>[\s\S]*?<\/sup>/gi, '')
  .replace(/<style[\s\S]*?<\/style>/gi, '')
  .replace(/<[^>]+>/g, '')
  .replace(/&#(\d+);/g, (_, n) => String.fromCharCode(+n))
  .replace(/&nbsp;/g, ' ').replace(/&ndash;/g, '–').replace(/&amp;/g, '&').replace(/&[a-z]+;/gi, ' ')
  .replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim()

function tables(html) { const out = []; const re = /<table[^>]*class="[^"]*wikitable[^"]*"[\s\S]*?<\/table>/gi; let m; while ((m = re.exec(html))) out.push(m[0]); return out }

function grid(tableHtml) {
  const trs = tableHtml.split(/<tr[^>]*>/i).slice(1).map((x) => x.split(/<\/tr>/i)[0])
  const g = []; const pending = []
  for (const tr of trs) {
    const cells = []; const cre = /<(t[hd])([^>]*)>([\s\S]*?)<\/\1>/gi; let cm
    while ((cm = cre.exec(tr))) { const a = cm[2]; const rs = parseInt((a.match(/rowspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10); const cs = parseInt((a.match(/colspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10); cells.push({ text: decode(cm[3]), rs, cs }) }
    const row = []; let col = 0; let ci = 0
    const place = (t) => { row[col] = t; col++ }
    while (ci < cells.length || pending.some((p) => p.rows > 0)) {
      const p = pending.find((x) => x.col === col && x.rows > 0)
      if (p) { for (let k = 0; k < p.span; k++) place(p.text); p.rows--; continue }
      if (ci >= cells.length) break
      const c = cells[ci++]
      for (let k = 0; k < c.cs; k++) { const cc = col; place(c.text); if (c.rs > 1) pending.push({ col: cc, span: 1, rows: c.rs - 1, text: c.text }) }
    }
    g.push(row)
  }
  return g
}

function labelColumns(g) {
  const headerRows = g.slice(0, 6); const ncol = Math.max(...g.map((r) => r.length)); const labels = []
  for (let c = 0; c < ncol; c++) {
    const texts = headerRows.map((r) => r[c] || ''); let label = null
    for (const sn of SURNAMES) if (texts.some((t) => t === sn || t.includes(sn))) { label = `cand:${sn}`; break }
    if (!label) {
      const j = texts.join(' ').toLowerCase()
      if (/pollster|firm|polling/.test(j)) label = 'pollster'
      else if (/sample/.test(j)) label = 'sample'
      else if (/margin/.test(j)) label = 'margin'
      else if (/date|fieldwork/.test(j)) label = 'date'
      else if (/other/.test(j)) label = 'other'
      else if (/blank|none|undecided|absten/.test(j)) label = 'blank'
      else if (/lead/.test(j)) label = 'lead'
    }
    labels.push(label)
  }
  return labels
}

const MONTHS = { jan: '01', feb: '02', mar: '03', apr: '04', may: '05', jun: '06', jul: '07', aug: '08', sep: '09', oct: '10', nov: '11', dec: '12' }
function endDate(s, fy) {
  if (!s) return ''
  const last = s.split(/[–-]/).pop().trim(); const ym = s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/); let day, mon, year
  const mm = last.match(/(\d{1,2})\s+([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/)
  if (mm) { day = mm[1]; mon = MONTHS[mm[2].toLowerCase()]; year = mm[3] }
  else {
    const d = last.match(/(\d{1,2})/); const monM = last.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/) || s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/)
    day = d ? d[1] : null; mon = monM ? MONTHS[monM[1].toLowerCase()] : null; year = ym ? ym[2] : fy
  }
  if (!day || !mon || !year) return ''
  return `${year}-${mon}-${String(day).padStart(2, '0')}`
}
const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
const isData = (t) => t && !/^pollster|^date|^sample|^margin|^other|^blank|^lead|results?$/i.test(t) && t.length > 1
// canonicaliza grafias de instituto (mesmo pollster fragmentado por espaço/grafia)
const normPollster = (p) => p.replace('Atlas Intel/SEMANA', 'AtlasIntel/SEMANA').replace('Noticias RCN /Gad3', 'Noticias RCN/Gad3')

const frPolls = []; const ruPolls = []
tables(HTML).forEach((t, ti) => {
  const g = grid(t); const labels = labelColumns(g)
  const candCols = labels.map((l, i) => ({ l, i })).filter((x) => x.l && x.l.startsWith('cand:'))
  const pc0 = labels.indexOf('pollster'), dc0 = labels.indexOf('date'), sc = labels.indexOf('sample')
  if (process.env.DBG) console.error(`  [#${ti}] cands=${candCols.length} (${candCols.map((x) => x.l.slice(5)).join('|')}) pollster=${pc0 >= 0} date=${dc0 >= 0} rows=${g.length}`)
  if (candCols.length < 2) return
  const pc = pc0, dc = dc0
  if (pc < 0) return
  const isRunoff = candCols.length === 2 && candCols.some((x) => x.l === 'cand:Cepeda') && candCols.some((x) => x.l.includes('Espriella'))
  // ano predominante da tabela (p/ datas sem ano, ex. "13–17 Dec" em seção 2025)
  const yc = {}; for (const row of g) { const m = String(row[dc] || '').match(/\b(20\d\d)\b/); if (m) yc[m[1]] = (yc[m[1]] || 0) + 1 }
  const tableYear = Object.keys(yc).sort((a, b) => yc[b] - yc[a])[0] || null
  let kept = 0
  for (const row of g) {
    const pollster = row[pc]
    const date = dc >= 0 ? row[dc] : ''; const iso = endDate(date, tableYear)
    if (process.env.TBL == ti) console.error(`    p="${String(pollster).slice(0, 16)}" date="${date}" iso=${iso || 'X'} isData=${isData(pollster)}`)
    if (!isData(pollster)) continue
    if (!iso || iso < '2025-01-01' || iso > '2026-07-01') continue
    if (pollster.length > 35) continue // pollster real é curto; eventos/contagens têm texto longo
    if (/death|deadline|withdraw|election|result|tribunal|count|finali|decision of vote|preliminary|rapid|candidate/i.test(pollster)) continue
    if (/\b(19|20)\d\d\b/.test(pollster)) continue
    const sample = sc >= 0 ? num(row[sc]) : null
    if (sample && sample > 50000) continue // contagem oficial de votos, não pesquisa
    const seen = new Set(); const results = []
    for (const { l, i } of candCols) {
      const sn = l.slice(5); const nm = CAND[sn].name; if (seen.has(nm)) continue
      const v = num(row[i]); if (v != null && v <= 100) { results.push({ candidate: nm, party: CAND[sn].party, percent: v }); seen.add(nm) }
    }
    if (results.length < (isRunoff ? 2 : 4)) continue
    if (!isRunoff && results.every((r) => r.percent === results[0].percent)) continue // 1º turno: todos iguais = artefato (runoff PODE empatar legitimamente)
    const rec = { poll_date: iso, fieldwork: date, pollster: normPollster(pollster.replace(/\s*\(.*/, '').trim()), sample, results }
    if (isRunoff) ruPolls.push(rec); else frPolls.push(rec); kept++
  }
  if (kept) console.error(`  tabela #${ti}: ${candCols.length} cands, ${isRunoff ? 'RUNOFF' : '1ºturno'}, ${kept} linhas`)
})

const dedup = (arr) => { const m = new Map(); for (const p of arr) { const k = `${p.pollster}|${p.poll_date}`; const prev = m.get(k); if (!prev || p.results.length > prev.results.length) m.set(k, p) } return [...m.values()].sort((a, b) => a.poll_date.localeCompare(b.poll_date)) }
const FR = dedup(frPolls); const RU = dedup(ruPolls)

const frRows = [['poll_date', 'fieldwork', 'pollster', 'sample', 'candidate', 'party', 'percent']]
for (const p of FR) for (const r of p.results) frRows.push([p.poll_date, p.fieldwork, p.pollster, p.sample ?? '', r.candidate, r.party, r.percent])
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-first-round-polls.csv'), csv(frRows))
const ruRows = [['poll_date', 'fieldwork', 'pollster', 'sample', 'espriella_pct', 'cepeda_pct', 'lead_pp']]
for (const p of RU) { const e = p.results.find((r) => r.candidate.includes('Espriella'))?.percent; const c = p.results.find((r) => r.candidate.includes('Cepeda'))?.percent; if (e != null && c != null) ruRows.push([p.poll_date, p.fieldwork, p.pollster, p.sample ?? '', e, c, Math.round((e - c) * 100) / 100]) }
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-runoff-polls.csv'), csv(ruRows))
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-polls.json'), JSON.stringify({
  description: 'National opinion polls for the 2026 Colombian presidential election — first round (all candidates) + runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda). Parsed deterministically from Wikipedia.',
  source: 'Wikipedia "2026 Colombian presidential election" (rendered table HTML) + AS/COA poll tracker',
  election: { first_round: '2026-05-31', runoff: '2026-06-21', runoff_matchup: 'Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda' },
  counts: { first_round_polls: FR.length, first_round_rows: frRows.length - 1, runoff_polls: RU.length },
  first_round: FR, runoff: RU,
}, null, 2))

console.log(`1º turno: ${FR.length} pesquisas (${frRows.length - 1} linhas), 2º turno: ${RU.length}`)
const cands = new Set(); for (const p of FR) for (const r of p.results) cands.add(r.candidate)
console.log(`candidatos 1T: ${cands.size} (${[...cands].join(', ')})`)
console.log(`range 1T: ${FR[0]?.poll_date} → ${FR[FR.length - 1]?.poll_date}`)
if (RU.length) console.log(`runoff amostra: ${JSON.stringify(RU.slice(-2).map((p) => [p.poll_date, p.pollster, p.results.map((r) => [r.candidate.split(' ').pop(), r.percent])]))}`)