andrefelipe-afos
EVAL fixes: CITATION matchup (was Peru's), drop phantom candidate from dict, normalize pollster names, market-name guard
510c322
raw
history blame
27.5 kB
{
"description": "National opinion polls for the 2026 Colombian presidential election — first round (all candidates) + runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda). Parsed deterministically from Wikipedia.",
"source": "Wikipedia \"2026 Colombian presidential election\" (rendered table HTML) + AS/COA poll tracker",
"election": {
"first_round": "2026-05-31",
"runoff": "2026-06-21",
"runoff_matchup": "Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda"
},
"counts": {
"first_round_polls": 29,
"first_round_rows": 170,
"runoff_polls": 0
},
"first_round": [
{
"poll_date": "2025-01-29",
"fieldwork": "27–29 Jan",
"pollster": "CNC",
"sample": 1513,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 4.3
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 4.7
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 11.8
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 12.7
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 7.8
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-02-13",
"fieldwork": "10–13 Feb",
"pollster": "Guarumo",
"sample": 2140,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 2.1
},
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 4.1
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 3.1
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 1.2
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 11.5
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 15.1
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 4
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 0.4
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-03-20",
"fieldwork": "18–20 Mar",
"pollster": "CNC",
"sample": 1594,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 3.6
},
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 7.4
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 6.2
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 1.1
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 13.4
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 13.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 7.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 0.4
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-03-25",
"fieldwork": "21–25 Mar",
"pollster": "Invamer",
"sample": 1200,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 4.1
},
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 3.7
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 4.7
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 0.8
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 1.7
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 9.5
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 8.3
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 7.8
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 0.6
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-04-26",
"fieldwork": "21–26 Apr",
"pollster": "Guarumo",
"sample": 2159,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 3.5
},
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 2.6
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 3.8
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 1
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 11.4
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 11.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 4
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-07-05",
"fieldwork": "1–5 Jul",
"pollster": "Guarumo",
"sample": 2122,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 2.1
},
{
"candidate": "María José Pizarro",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 3.2
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 8.1
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 0.7
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 1.1
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 8.7
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 11.5
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 3
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-10-16",
"fieldwork": "11–16 Oct",
"pollster": "CNC",
"sample": 1803,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 8
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 2.5
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 0.4
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 13.7
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 8.9
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 6.4
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 2.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 1.5
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-11-14",
"fieldwork": "6–14 Nov",
"pollster": "CNC",
"sample": 2140,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 20.9
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 1.8
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 14.4
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 7.8
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 3.2
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 3.3
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 0.6
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-11-15",
"fieldwork": "10–15 Nov",
"pollster": "Yamil Cure S.A.S",
"sample": 2250,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 19.6
},
{
"candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 5.2
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 15.6
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 10.6
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 4.2
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 5.2
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 2.2
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-11-27",
"fieldwork": "15–27 Nov",
"pollster": "Invamer",
"sample": 2080,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 31.9
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 1.1
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 18.2
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 8.5
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 3.7
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 1.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 2.9
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2025-12-17",
"fieldwork": "13–17 Dec",
"pollster": "W.A.A",
"sample": 11509,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 30.7
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 0.7
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 16.2
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 6.7
},
{
"candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 3.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
"party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
"percent": 1.6
},
{
"candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
"party": "Independiente",
"percent": 0.7
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-01-08",
"fieldwork": "5–8 January 2026",
"pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
"sample": 4550,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 26.5
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 28
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 5.1
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 9.4
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.2
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-01-15",
"fieldwork": "13–15 January 2026",
"pollster": "Noticias RCN/Gad3",
"sample": 1207,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 30
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 22
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 3
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 1
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-01-21",
"fieldwork": "15–21 January 2026",
"pollster": "CNC/Cambio",
"sample": 2202,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 28.2
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 15.5
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 9.8
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.3
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-01-22",
"fieldwork": "14–22 January 2026",
"pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica",
"sample": 4245,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 33.6
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 18.2
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 6.9
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 3.9
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-02-04",
"fieldwork": "27 January – 4 February 2026",
"pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
"sample": 7298,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 31.4
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 32.1
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 3.8
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 7.6
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.3
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-02-20",
"fieldwork": "February 2026",
"pollster": "CELAG",
"sample": null,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 38.2
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 25.2
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 4.6
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 4.4
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-02-22",
"fieldwork": "11–22 February 2026",
"pollster": "Invamer",
"sample": 3800,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 37.1
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 18.9
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 10
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 6.6
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 1.8
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-03-12",
"fieldwork": "10–12 March 2026",
"pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
"sample": 4291,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 36.4
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 27.9
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 17.5
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 7.8
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.9
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-03-18",
"fieldwork": "16–18 March 2026",
"pollster": "Noticias RCN/Gad3",
"sample": 1200,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 35
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 21
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 16
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 3
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-03-20",
"fieldwork": "March 2026",
"pollster": "CELAG",
"sample": null,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 40.9
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 15.4
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 21.1
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 3.6
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.3
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-03-21",
"fieldwork": "17–21 March 2026",
"pollster": "CNC",
"sample": 2157,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 34.5
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 15.4
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 22.2
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 3.6
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.5
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-03-25",
"fieldwork": "19–25 March 2026",
"pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica",
"sample": 3736,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 37.5
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 20.2
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 19.9
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 3.9
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.6
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-04-09",
"fieldwork": "6–9 April 2026",
"pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
"sample": 3617,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 40.82
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 29.43
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 24.79
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 5.38
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.32
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-04-22",
"fieldwork": "20–22 April 2026",
"pollster": "GAD3",
"sample": 1500,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 36
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 21
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 13
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 2.5
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-04-24",
"fieldwork": "15–24 April 2026",
"pollster": "Invamer",
"sample": 3800,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 44.3
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 21.5
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 19.8
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 2
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-05-11",
"fieldwork": "4–11 May 2026",
"pollster": "Fundación Génesis Crea",
"sample": 4352,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 35.1
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 21.6
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 25.4
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 2.9
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.7
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-05-14",
"fieldwork": "9–14 May 2026",
"pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
"sample": 5039,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 36
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 31.5
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 16
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 4.7
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.1
}
]
},
{
"poll_date": "2026-05-20",
"fieldwork": "13–20 May 2026",
"pollster": "Invamer",
"sample": 2224,
"results": [
{
"candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
"party": "Pacto Histórico",
"percent": 44.6
},
{
"candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
"party": "Defensores de la Patria",
"percent": 31.6
},
{
"candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
"party": "Centro Democrático",
"percent": 14
},
{
"candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
"party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
"percent": 2.2
},
{
"candidate": "Roy Barreras",
"party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
"percent": 0.3
}
]
}
],
"runoff": []
}