Colombia 2026 electoral divergence — polls (29 first-round/10 candidates) + Polymarket odds + divergence + docs

.gitignore

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+node_modules/
+*.html
+.DS_Store

CITATION.cff

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+cff-version: 1.2.0
+message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
+title: "AFOS — Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
+abstract: >-
+  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Colombia's
+  2026 general election (first round May 2026; runoff June 2026, Keiko Fujimori
+  vs Roberto Sánchez), with explicit poll-versus-market divergence rather than a
+  blended average. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster
+  releases (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket.
+type: dataset
+authors:
+  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
+    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
+keywords:
+  - elections
+  - Colombia
+  - opinion polls
+  - prediction markets
+  - divergence
+  - Latin America
+  - open data
+license: CC-BY-4.0
+repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/colombia-2026-electoral-divergence"
+url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
+version: "2026.06"
+date-released: "2026-06-10"

DATA_DICTIONARY.md

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+# Data Dictionary — AFOS Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence
+
+All figures trace to a named pollster's published release (compiled from the Wikipedia aggregation, rowspan/colspan-aware parser) or to a public Polymarket market. Missing values are left **blank**, never imputed.
+
+## `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` (long format)
+
+One row per candidate per poll. 29 polls × up to 10 candidates = 170 rows, 2025→May 2026.
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `poll_date` | date | End of fieldwork (`YYYY-MM-DD`). For tables whose dates omit the year, the year is inferred from the table's predominant year. |
+| `fieldwork` | string | Fieldwork window as published. |
+| `pollster` | string | Polling firm / publishing client (e.g. "Invamer", "AtlasIntel/SEMANA"). |
+| `sample` | integer | Sample size. |
+| `candidate` | string | Candidate full name. |
+| `party` | string | Party / movement. |
+| `percent` | number | First-round voting intention, %. |
+
+**Candidates tracked:** Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico), Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensores de la Patria), Sergio Fajardo, Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Vicky Dávila, Daniel Quintero, Germán Vargas Lleras (Cambio Radical), Juan Manuel Galán (Nuevo Liberalismo), María José Pizarro, Juan Carlos Pinzón, Roy Barreras.
+
+## `polls/colombia-polls.json`
+
+Structured object: `{ description, source, election, counts, first_round[], runoff[] }`. Each poll carries `poll_date`, `fieldwork`, `pollster`, `sample`, `results[]` (candidate/party/percent). `runoff[]` is empty (see runoff note in the README).
+
+## `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv`
+
+Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate, from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market (covers the campaign through the 21 Jun runoff). Includes **all** market candidates, not only those polled.
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD`. |
+| `candidate` | string | Candidate name (party suffix stripped). |
+| `polymarket_pct` | number | Implied win probability, % (daily close). |
+| `volume_usd` | number | Cumulative market volume, USD. |
+
+## `data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv`
+
+Each first-round poll result joined to the candidate's market odds on the poll date.
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `poll_date` | date | Poll fieldwork end. |
+| `pollster` | string | Polling firm. |
+| `candidate` | string | Candidate (canonical name). |
+| `poll_pct` | number | First-round vote intention, %. |
+| `polymarket_pct` | number | Win probability on `polymarket_date`, %. |
+| `polymarket_date` | date | Market date used: nearest available **on or before** `poll_date`. |
+| `divergence_pp` | number | `polymarket_pct − poll_pct`, percentage points. |
+
+> **Interpretation caveat:** a poll reports first-round *vote share*; the Polymarket contract prices *probability of winning the election*. These are different quantities — `divergence_pp` is the gap AFOS tracks editorially (the spread is the signal, see README "Notable divergences"), **not** a like-for-like polling-error metric.

LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
+=========================================================
+
+The DATA in this dataset (CSV files, JSON snapshots, polls, and news-link
+metadata) is licensed by AFOS Analytics under the Creative Commons
+Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
+
+The complete and legally binding text of this license is available at:
+
+    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
+
+and is incorporated here by reference. A human-readable summary is at:
+
+    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------
+You are free to:
+
+  • Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
+  • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose,
+    even commercially.
+
+The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the
+license terms.
+
+Under the following terms:
+
+  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit to AFOS Analytics,
+    provide a link to this license, and indicate if changes were made.
+    You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that
+    suggests AFOS Analytics endorses you or your use.
+
+  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or
+    technological measures that legally restrict others from doing
+    anything the license permits.
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------
+Recommended attribution:
+
+  "AFOS Analytics — Brazil 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
+   (https://afos-analytics.com), CC BY 4.0."
+
+NOTE ON SCOPE: This file governs the DATA. Any code or scripts distributed
+in this repository are licensed separately under the Apache License 2.0
+(see LICENSE-APACHE-2.0).

README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+---
+license: cc-by-4.0
+language:
+- es
+- en
+- pt
+pretty_name: "AFOS — Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence"
+tags:
+- elections
+- colombia
+- prediction-markets
+- polls
+- political-risk
+- divergence
+- open-data
+- latin-america
+---
+
+# AFOS — Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
+
+🌐 **[English](#english) · [Español](#español) · [Português](#português)**
+
+Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Colombia's **2026 presidential election** (first round 31 May 2026; runoff 21 June 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda), built like the AFOS Brazil & Peru datasets: sources are reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into a single average.
+
+Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. Part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method across Latin America. *No personal data — only public electoral information.*
+
+---
+
+## English
+
+| Path | Rows | Content |
+|------|------|---------|
+| `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` | 170 | First-round voting intention, **long format** (one row per candidate × poll), **10 candidates**, 29 polls, 2025→May 2026. |
+| `polls/colombia-polls.json` | — | Full structured polls with methodology. |
+| `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | 4,620 | Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (19 candidates, Jul 2025→Jun 2026) from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market. |
+| `data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 121 | **Market × poll divergence** per candidate — each first-round poll joined to the candidate's market odds on its date. |
+| `data/colombia-poly-raw.json` | — | Raw Polymarket payload (provenance). |
+
+> **Runoff note:** the runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda, 21 Jun) is in the market series, but Wikipedia's runoff polling is published as hypothetical-matchup matrices that don't parse cleanly, so the *poll* side here is **first round only**.
+
+### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)
+
+The point of this dataset is the **gap** between what the market prices (probability of *winning*) and what polls measure (first-round *vote share*). Averaging the two would erase exactly the signal below. From the latest pre-election poll (Invamer, 20 May 2026):
+
+- **Abelardo de la Espriella — poll 31.6% × market 43.5% (+11.9pp).** The market priced his *win probability* ~12 points above his first-round vote-share polling — and he **won the first round with 43.7%**. The market's signal matched the result; vote-share polls understated him.
+- **Iván Cepeda — poll 44.6% × market 43.5% (−1.1pp).** Near-zero divergence: market and polls agreed he led on vote share, but priced him roughly even with Espriella to *win* — foreshadowing a tight runoff.
+- **Paloma Valencia — poll 14% × market 14.5% (+0.5pp):** market and polls in lockstep.
+- Earlier in the cycle the market ran *below* some candidates' vote share (e.g. **Daniel Quintero**, Nov 2025, poll 5.2% × market 0.6%, −4.6pp) — it never believed they could win.
+
+**The reading:** a single blended "market + polls" average would have shown Cepeda comfortably ahead and hidden that the market gave the *eventual first-round winner* (Espriella) a far higher chance than his vote-share suggested. The divergence **was** the signal.
+
+---
+
+## Español
+
+Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección presidencial de Colombia 2026** (primera vuelta 31 may; segunda vuelta 21 jun, de la Espriella vs Cepeda), con **divergencia explícita** en lugar de un promedio único.
+
+- `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` — intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, **10 candidatos**, 29 encuestas (2025→may 2026).
+- `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv` — probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta.
+
+**Divergencia destacada:** Invamer 20/may dio **Cepeda 44.6% × de la Espriella 31.6%** (encuesta), pero el mercado precificaba a **de la Espriella con 43.5% de ganar** (+11.9pp), y **ganó la primera vuelta con 43.7%**. El promedio habría ocultado esa señal. **Encuestadoras:** Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG. **Fuente:** Wikipedia + AS/COA. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.
+
+---
+
+## Português
+
+Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição presidencial da Colômbia 2026** (1º turno 31/mai; 2º turno 21/jun, de la Espriella × Cepeda), com **divergência explícita** entre fontes. Pesquisas (10 candidatos, 29 do 1º turno) compiladas da Wikipedia + AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. **Divergência em destaque:** o mercado precificou a vitória de **de la Espriella em 43,5%** enquanto a pesquisa dava 31,6% de voto — e ele venceu o 1º turno com 43,7%. A média teria escondido isso. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.
+
+---
+
+**Sources / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG, …) · [Wikipedia — 2026 Colombian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_election) · [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-colombias-2026-presidential-election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).

build-colombia-market-divergence.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+/**
+ * Série de odds Polymarket + divergência mercado × pesquisa da Colômbia 2026, a partir do RAW
+ * já buscado (data/colombia-poly-raw.json) via função Vercel standalone (EUA resolve gamma-api/clob).
+ * market-odds inclui TODOS os candidatos do mercado; a divergência casa com as pesquisas (canon).
+ *
+ * Saída:
+ *   data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv  (date, candidate, polymarket_pct, volume_usd)
+ *   data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv    (poll_date, pollster, candidate, poll_pct, polymarket_pct, polymarket_date, divergence_pp)
+ */
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
+import { join } from 'path'
+
+const ROOT = process.cwd()
+const OUT = join(ROOT, 'data'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
+const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
+const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
+const isoOf = (t) => new Date(t * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10)
+const cleanName = (s) => String(s || '').replace(/\s*\([^)]*\)\s*$/, '').trim() // tira sufixo " (IND)"
+
+// canon p/ casar mercado × pesquisa (nome completo da pesquisa)
+const CANON = [['cepeda', 'Iván Cepeda'], ['espriella', 'Abelardo de la Espriella'], ['fajardo', 'Sergio Fajardo'], ['valencia', 'Paloma Valencia'], ['dávila', 'Vicky Dávila'], ['davila', 'Vicky Dávila'], ['quintero', 'Daniel Quintero'], ['vargas lleras', 'Germán Vargas Lleras'], ['galán', 'Juan Manuel Galán'], ['galan', 'Juan Manuel Galán'], ['pizarro', 'María José Pizarro'], ['pinzón', 'Juan Carlos Pinzón'], ['pinzon', 'Juan Carlos Pinzón'], ['barreras', 'Roy Barreras']]
+const canon = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').toLowerCase(); for (const [k, v] of CANON) if (t.includes(k)) return v; return null }
+
+// 1) odds diárias — TODOS os candidatos do mercado
+const raw = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-poly-raw.json'), 'utf-8'))
+const odds = []
+for (const m of raw.odds || []) {
+  const name = cleanName(m.candidate); if (!name || !Array.isArray(m.history) || !m.history.length) continue
+  const byDay = new Map()
+  for (const pt of m.history) byDay.set(isoOf(pt.t), pt.p)
+  for (const [date, p] of byDay) odds.push({ date, candidate: name, pct: Math.round(p * 1000) / 10, volume: Math.round(m.volume || 0) })
+}
+odds.sort((a, b) => a.date === b.date ? b.pct - a.pct : a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv'), csv([['date', 'candidate', 'polymarket_pct', 'volume_usd'], ...odds.map((o) => [o.date, o.candidate, o.pct, o.volume])]))
+console.log(`📈 market-odds: ${odds.length} linhas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.date)).size} datas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.candidate)).size} candidatos (${raw.startDate?.slice(0, 10)}→${raw.endDate?.slice(0, 10)})`)
+
+// 2) divergência: pesquisa de 1º turno × odd do candidato na data (canon, nearest on-or-before)
+const idx = {}
+for (const o of odds) { const k = canon(o.candidate); if (k) (idx[k] ||= []).push({ date: o.date, pct: o.pct }) }
+for (const k in idx) idx[k].sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
+const mAt = (k, d) => { const a = idx[k]; if (!a) return null; let best = null; for (const e of a) { if (e.date <= d) best = e; else break } return best }
+
+const lines = readFileSync(join(ROOT, 'polls', 'colombia-first-round-polls.csv'), 'utf-8').trim().split('\n').slice(1)
+const dv = [['poll_date', 'pollster', 'candidate', 'poll_pct', 'polymarket_pct', 'polymarket_date', 'divergence_pp']]
+let matched = 0
+for (const ln of lines) {
+  const c = ln.split(','); const poll_date = c[0], pollster = c[2], candidate = c[4], poll = num(c[6])
+  const k = canon(candidate); if (!k || poll == null) continue
+  const m = mAt(k, poll_date); if (!m) continue
+  dv.push([poll_date, pollster, k, poll, m.pct, m.date, Math.round((m.pct - poll) * 100) / 100]); matched++
+}
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv'), csv(dv))
+console.log(`📊 divergence: ${matched} linhas (pesquisa 1T × mercado)`)

data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
+poll_date,pollster,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,divergence_pp
+2025-10-16,CNC,Iván Cepeda,8,16.5,2025-10-16,8.5
+2025-10-16,CNC,Daniel Quintero,2.5,3.1,2025-10-16,0.6
+2025-10-16,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,13.7,34.5,2025-10-16,20.8
+2025-10-16,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,8.9,12.5,2025-10-16,3.6
+2025-10-16,CNC,Vicky Dávila,6.4,13.5,2025-10-16,7.1
+2025-10-16,CNC,Juan Manuel Galán,2.6,0.4,2025-10-16,-2.2
+2025-11-14,CNC,Iván Cepeda,20.9,26.5,2025-11-14,5.6
+2025-11-14,CNC,Daniel Quintero,1.8,0.7,2025-11-14,-1.1
+2025-11-14,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,14.4,35.5,2025-11-14,21.1
+2025-11-14,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,7.8,16.5,2025-11-14,8.7
+2025-11-14,CNC,Vicky Dávila,3.2,4,2025-11-14,0.8
+2025-11-14,CNC,Juan Manuel Galán,3.3,0.9,2025-11-14,-2.4
+2025-11-14,CNC,Juan Carlos Pinzón,0.6,2.9,2025-11-14,2.3
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Iván Cepeda,19.6,21.5,2025-11-15,1.9
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Daniel Quintero,5.2,0.6,2025-11-15,-4.6
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.6,35.5,2025-11-15,19.9
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Sergio Fajardo,10.6,15.5,2025-11-15,4.9
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Vicky Dávila,4.2,2.5,2025-11-15,-1.7
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Juan Manuel Galán,5.2,7,2025-11-15,1.8
+2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Juan Carlos Pinzón,2.2,3.1,2025-11-15,0.9
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,31.9,16.5,2025-11-27,-15.4
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.2,41.5,2025-11-27,23.3
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,8.5,12,2025-11-27,3.5
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Vicky Dávila,3.7,5.1,2025-11-27,1.4
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Juan Manuel Galán,1.6,1.1,2025-11-27,-0.5
+2025-11-27,Invamer,Juan Carlos Pinzón,2.9,3.4,2025-11-27,0.5
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Iván Cepeda,30.7,32.5,2025-12-17,1.8
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Abelardo de la Espriella,16.2,39,2025-12-17,22.8
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Sergio Fajardo,6.7,12.5,2025-12-17,5.8
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Vicky Dávila,3.6,0.7,2025-12-17,-2.9
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Juan Manuel Galán,1.6,1.7,2025-12-17,0.1
+2025-12-17,W.A.A,Juan Carlos Pinzón,0.7,0.4,2025-12-17,-0.3
+2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,26.5,35.5,2026-01-08,9
+2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,28,34.5,2026-01-08,6.5
+2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,5.1,9.8,2026-01-08,4.7
+2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,9.4,11.5,2026-01-08,2.1
+2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.2,4.6,2026-01-08,4.4
+2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Iván Cepeda,30,37.5,2026-01-15,7.5
+2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Abelardo de la Espriella,22,39.5,2026-01-15,17.5
+2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Paloma Valencia,3,13.4,2026-01-15,10.4
+2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Sergio Fajardo,1,5,2026-01-15,4
+2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Roy Barreras,1,0.5,2026-01-15,-0.5
+2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Iván Cepeda,28.2,39.5,2026-01-21,11.3
+2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.5,35.5,2026-01-21,20
+2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Sergio Fajardo,9.8,4.2,2026-01-21,-5.6
+2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Roy Barreras,0.3,1,2026-01-21,0.7
+2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Iván Cepeda,33.6,38,2026-01-22,4.4
+2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.2,35,2026-01-22,16.8
+2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Paloma Valencia,6.9,6.7,2026-01-22,-0.2
+2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Sergio Fajardo,3.9,3.5,2026-01-22,-0.4
+2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Roy Barreras,0,0.4,2026-01-22,0.4
+2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,31.4,39.5,2026-02-04,8.1
+2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,32.1,36.5,2026-02-04,4.4
+2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,3.8,8,2026-02-04,4.2
+2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,7.6,3.4,2026-02-04,-4.2
+2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.3,2.2,2026-02-04,1.9
+2026-02-20,CELAG,Iván Cepeda,38.2,40,2026-02-20,1.8
+2026-02-20,CELAG,Abelardo de la Espriella,25.2,39,2026-02-20,13.8
+2026-02-20,CELAG,Paloma Valencia,4.6,7.5,2026-02-20,2.9
+2026-02-20,CELAG,Sergio Fajardo,4.4,2.7,2026-02-20,-1.7
+2026-02-20,CELAG,Roy Barreras,1,5.5,2026-02-20,4.5
+2026-02-22,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,37.1,37.5,2026-02-22,0.4
+2026-02-22,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.9,38.5,2026-02-22,19.6
+2026-02-22,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,10,7.9,2026-02-22,-2.1
+2026-02-22,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,6.6,1.4,2026-02-22,-5.2
+2026-02-22,Invamer,Roy Barreras,1.8,3.5,2026-02-22,1.7
+2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,36.4,45.5,2026-03-12,9.1
+2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,27.9,15.5,2026-03-12,-12.4
+2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,17.5,31.4,2026-03-12,13.9
+2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,7.8,1.4,2026-03-12,-6.4
+2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.9,0.7,2026-03-12,-0.2
+2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Iván Cepeda,35,41.5,2026-03-18,6.5
+2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Abelardo de la Espriella,21,12.5,2026-03-18,-8.5
+2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Paloma Valencia,16,43.8,2026-03-18,27.8
+2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Sergio Fajardo,3,0.8,2026-03-18,-2.2
+2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.4,2026-03-18,0.3
+2026-03-20,CELAG,Iván Cepeda,40.9,41,2026-03-20,0.1
+2026-03-20,CELAG,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.4,16.5,2026-03-20,1.1
+2026-03-20,CELAG,Paloma Valencia,21.1,38.9,2026-03-20,17.8
+2026-03-20,CELAG,Sergio Fajardo,3.6,0.8,2026-03-20,-2.8
+2026-03-20,CELAG,Roy Barreras,0.3,0.4,2026-03-20,0.1
+2026-03-21,CNC,Iván Cepeda,34.5,42,2026-03-21,7.5
+2026-03-21,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.4,17.5,2026-03-21,2.1
+2026-03-21,CNC,Paloma Valencia,22.2,38.8,2026-03-21,16.6
+2026-03-21,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,3.6,0.7,2026-03-21,-2.9
+2026-03-21,CNC,Roy Barreras,0.5,0.4,2026-03-21,-0.1
+2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Iván Cepeda,37.5,41.5,2026-03-25,4
+2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Abelardo de la Espriella,20.2,14.5,2026-03-25,-5.7
+2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Paloma Valencia,19.9,41.8,2026-03-25,21.9
+2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Sergio Fajardo,3.9,0.7,2026-03-25,-3.2
+2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Roy Barreras,0.6,0.3,2026-03-25,-0.3
+2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,40.82,39.5,2026-04-09,-1.32
+2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,29.43,12.5,2026-04-09,-16.93
+2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,24.79,45.1,2026-04-09,20.31
+2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,5.38,0.4,2026-04-09,-4.98
+2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.32,0.2,2026-04-09,-0.12
+2026-04-22,GAD3,Iván Cepeda,36,34.5,2026-04-22,-1.5
+2026-04-22,GAD3,Abelardo de la Espriella,21,22,2026-04-22,1
+2026-04-22,GAD3,Paloma Valencia,13,41.3,2026-04-22,28.3
+2026-04-22,GAD3,Sergio Fajardo,2.5,0.4,2026-04-22,-2.1
+2026-04-22,GAD3,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-04-22,0.1
+2026-04-24,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,44.3,36.5,2026-04-24,-7.8
+2026-04-24,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,21.5,25.5,2026-04-24,4
+2026-04-24,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,19.8,33.8,2026-04-24,14
+2026-04-24,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,2,0.4,2026-04-24,-1.6
+2026-04-24,Invamer,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-04-24,0.1
+2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Iván Cepeda,35.1,38.5,2026-05-11,3.4
+2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Abelardo de la Espriella,21.6,43.5,2026-05-11,21.9
+2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Paloma Valencia,25.4,18.7,2026-05-11,-6.7
+2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Sergio Fajardo,2.9,0.2,2026-05-11,-2.7
+2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Roy Barreras,0.7,0.2,2026-05-11,-0.5
+2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,36,38.5,2026-05-14,2.5
+2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,31.5,45.5,2026-05-14,14
+2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,16,17.5,2026-05-14,1.5
+2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,4.7,0.2,2026-05-14,-4.5
+2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-05-14,0.1
+2026-05-20,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,44.6,43.5,2026-05-20,-1.1
+2026-05-20,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,31.6,43.5,2026-05-20,11.9
+2026-05-20,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,14,14.5,2026-05-20,0.5
+2026-05-20,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,2.2,0.2,2026-05-20,-2
+2026-05-20,Invamer,Roy Barreras,0.3,0.1,2026-05-20,-0.2

parse-colombia-wiki.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+/**
+ * Parser determinístico das tabelas de pesquisas do artigo Wikipedia "2026 Colombian
+ * presidential election" (HTML renderizado). Mesma engine do Peru (grid rowspan/colspan-aware).
+ * 1º turno (todos os candidatos) + 2º turno (de la Espriella × Cepeda). Verifica contra conhecidos.
+ *
+ * Entrada: ../../AFOS-Analitica-2026/.cache/col-wiki.html
+ * Saída: polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv, polls/colombia-runoff-polls.csv, polls/colombia-polls.json
+ */
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
+import { join } from 'path'
+
+const HTML = readFileSync(join(process.cwd(), '..', '..', 'AFOS-Analitica-2026', '.cache', 'col-wiki.html'), 'utf-8')
+const OUT = join(process.cwd(), 'polls'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
+const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
+
+// surname-chave -> {name, party}. 'Espriella' antes de qualquer 'de la' genérico; só 1 Cepeda relevante (Iván).
+const CAND = {
+  'de la Espriella': { name: 'Abelardo de la Espriella', party: 'Defensores de la Patria' },
+  'Espriella': { name: 'Abelardo de la Espriella', party: 'Defensores de la Patria' },
+  'Cepeda': { name: 'Iván Cepeda', party: 'Pacto Histórico' },
+  'Fajardo': { name: 'Sergio Fajardo', party: 'Dignidad y Compromiso' },
+  'Valencia': { name: 'Paloma Valencia', party: 'Centro Democrático' },
+  'Dávila': { name: 'Vicky Dávila', party: 'Independiente' },
+  'Quintero': { name: 'Daniel Quintero', party: 'Independiente' },
+  'Vargas Lleras': { name: 'Germán Vargas Lleras', party: 'Cambio Radical' },
+  'Galán': { name: 'Juan Manuel Galán', party: 'Nuevo Liberalismo' },
+  'Pizarro': { name: 'María José Pizarro', party: 'Pacto Histórico' },
+  'Pinzón': { name: 'Juan Carlos Pinzón', party: 'Independiente' },
+  'Barreras': { name: 'Roy Barreras', party: 'La Fuerza de la Paz' },
+  'Robledo': { name: 'Jorge Robledo', party: 'Dignidad' },
+  'Lara': { name: 'Rodrigo Lara', party: 'Nuevo Liberalismo' },
+}
+const SURNAMES = Object.keys(CAND)
+
+const decode = (s) => s
+  .replace(/<sup[^>]*class="[^"]*reference[^"]*"[^>]*>[\s\S]*?<\/sup>/gi, '')
+  .replace(/<style[\s\S]*?<\/style>/gi, '')
+  .replace(/<[^>]+>/g, '')
+  .replace(/&#(\d+);/g, (_, n) => String.fromCharCode(+n))
+  .replace(/&nbsp;/g, ' ').replace(/&ndash;/g, '–').replace(/&amp;/g, '&').replace(/&[a-z]+;/gi, ' ')
+  .replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim()
+
+function tables(html) { const out = []; const re = /<table[^>]*class="[^"]*wikitable[^"]*"[\s\S]*?<\/table>/gi; let m; while ((m = re.exec(html))) out.push(m[0]); return out }
+
+function grid(tableHtml) {
+  const trs = tableHtml.split(/<tr[^>]*>/i).slice(1).map((x) => x.split(/<\/tr>/i)[0])
+  const g = []; const pending = []
+  for (const tr of trs) {
+    const cells = []; const cre = /<(t[hd])([^>]*)>([\s\S]*?)<\/\1>/gi; let cm
+    while ((cm = cre.exec(tr))) { const a = cm[2]; const rs = parseInt((a.match(/rowspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10); const cs = parseInt((a.match(/colspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10); cells.push({ text: decode(cm[3]), rs, cs }) }
+    const row = []; let col = 0; let ci = 0
+    const place = (t) => { row[col] = t; col++ }
+    while (ci < cells.length || pending.some((p) => p.rows > 0)) {
+      const p = pending.find((x) => x.col === col && x.rows > 0)
+      if (p) { for (let k = 0; k < p.span; k++) place(p.text); p.rows--; continue }
+      if (ci >= cells.length) break
+      const c = cells[ci++]
+      for (let k = 0; k < c.cs; k++) { const cc = col; place(c.text); if (c.rs > 1) pending.push({ col: cc, span: 1, rows: c.rs - 1, text: c.text }) }
+    }
+    g.push(row)
+  }
+  return g
+}
+
+function labelColumns(g) {
+  const headerRows = g.slice(0, 6); const ncol = Math.max(...g.map((r) => r.length)); const labels = []
+  for (let c = 0; c < ncol; c++) {
+    const texts = headerRows.map((r) => r[c] || ''); let label = null
+    for (const sn of SURNAMES) if (texts.some((t) => t === sn || t.includes(sn))) { label = `cand:${sn}`; break }
+    if (!label) {
+      const j = texts.join(' ').toLowerCase()
+      if (/pollster|firm|polling/.test(j)) label = 'pollster'
+      else if (/sample/.test(j)) label = 'sample'
+      else if (/margin/.test(j)) label = 'margin'
+      else if (/date|fieldwork/.test(j)) label = 'date'
+      else if (/other/.test(j)) label = 'other'
+      else if (/blank|none|undecided|absten/.test(j)) label = 'blank'
+      else if (/lead/.test(j)) label = 'lead'
+    }
+    labels.push(label)
+  }
+  return labels
+}
+
+const MONTHS = { jan: '01', feb: '02', mar: '03', apr: '04', may: '05', jun: '06', jul: '07', aug: '08', sep: '09', oct: '10', nov: '11', dec: '12' }
+function endDate(s, fy) {
+  if (!s) return ''
+  const last = s.split(/[–-]/).pop().trim(); const ym = s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/); let day, mon, year
+  const mm = last.match(/(\d{1,2})\s+([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/)
+  if (mm) { day = mm[1]; mon = MONTHS[mm[2].toLowerCase()]; year = mm[3] }
+  else {
+    const d = last.match(/(\d{1,2})/); const monM = last.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/) || s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/)
+    day = d ? d[1] : null; mon = monM ? MONTHS[monM[1].toLowerCase()] : null; year = ym ? ym[2] : fy
+  }
+  if (!day || !mon || !year) return ''
+  return `${year}-${mon}-${String(day).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
+const isData = (t) => t && !/^pollster|^date|^sample|^margin|^other|^blank|^lead|results?$/i.test(t) && t.length > 1
+
+const frPolls = []; const ruPolls = []
+tables(HTML).forEach((t, ti) => {
+  const g = grid(t); const labels = labelColumns(g)
+  const candCols = labels.map((l, i) => ({ l, i })).filter((x) => x.l && x.l.startsWith('cand:'))
+  const pc0 = labels.indexOf('pollster'), dc0 = labels.indexOf('date'), sc = labels.indexOf('sample')
+  if (process.env.DBG) console.error(`  [#${ti}] cands=${candCols.length} (${candCols.map((x) => x.l.slice(5)).join('|')}) pollster=${pc0 >= 0} date=${dc0 >= 0} rows=${g.length}`)
+  if (candCols.length < 2) return
+  const pc = pc0, dc = dc0
+  if (pc < 0) return
+  const isRunoff = candCols.length === 2 && candCols.some((x) => x.l === 'cand:Cepeda') && candCols.some((x) => x.l.includes('Espriella'))
+  // ano predominante da tabela (p/ datas sem ano, ex. "13–17 Dec" em seção 2025)
+  const yc = {}; for (const row of g) { const m = String(row[dc] || '').match(/\b(20\d\d)\b/); if (m) yc[m[1]] = (yc[m[1]] || 0) + 1 }
+  const tableYear = Object.keys(yc).sort((a, b) => yc[b] - yc[a])[0] || null
+  let kept = 0
+  for (const row of g) {
+    const pollster = row[pc]
+    const date = dc >= 0 ? row[dc] : ''; const iso = endDate(date, tableYear)
+    if (process.env.TBL == ti) console.error(`    p="${String(pollster).slice(0, 16)}" date="${date}" iso=${iso || 'X'} isData=${isData(pollster)}`)
+    if (!isData(pollster)) continue
+    if (!iso || iso < '2025-01-01' || iso > '2026-07-01') continue
+    if (pollster.length > 35) continue // pollster real é curto; eventos/contagens têm texto longo
+    if (/death|deadline|withdraw|election|result|tribunal|count|finali|decision of vote|preliminary|rapid|candidate/i.test(pollster)) continue
+    if (/\b(19|20)\d\d\b/.test(pollster)) continue
+    const sample = sc >= 0 ? num(row[sc]) : null
+    if (sample && sample > 50000) continue // contagem oficial de votos, não pesquisa
+    const seen = new Set(); const results = []
+    for (const { l, i } of candCols) {
+      const sn = l.slice(5); const nm = CAND[sn].name; if (seen.has(nm)) continue
+      const v = num(row[i]); if (v != null && v <= 100) { results.push({ candidate: nm, party: CAND[sn].party, percent: v }); seen.add(nm) }
+    }
+    if (results.length < (isRunoff ? 2 : 4)) continue
+    if (results.every((r) => r.percent === results[0].percent)) continue // linhas-artefato com todos iguais (ex. 88.8/88.8)
+    const rec = { poll_date: iso, fieldwork: date, pollster: pollster.replace(/\s*\(.*/, '').trim(), sample, results }
+    if (isRunoff) ruPolls.push(rec); else frPolls.push(rec); kept++
+  }
+  if (kept) console.error(`  tabela #${ti}: ${candCols.length} cands, ${isRunoff ? 'RUNOFF' : '1ºturno'}, ${kept} linhas`)
+})
+
+const dedup = (arr) => { const m = new Map(); for (const p of arr) { const k = `${p.pollster}|${p.poll_date}`; const prev = m.get(k); if (!prev || p.results.length > prev.results.length) m.set(k, p) } return [...m.values()].sort((a, b) => a.poll_date.localeCompare(b.poll_date)) }
+const FR = dedup(frPolls); const RU = dedup(ruPolls)
+
+const frRows = [['poll_date', 'fieldwork', 'pollster', 'sample', 'candidate', 'party', 'percent']]
+for (const p of FR) for (const r of p.results) frRows.push([p.poll_date, p.fieldwork, p.pollster, p.sample ?? '', r.candidate, r.party, r.percent])
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-first-round-polls.csv'), csv(frRows))
+const ruRows = [['poll_date', 'fieldwork', 'pollster', 'sample', 'espriella_pct', 'cepeda_pct', 'lead_pp']]
+for (const p of RU) { const e = p.results.find((r) => r.candidate.includes('Espriella'))?.percent; const c = p.results.find((r) => r.candidate.includes('Cepeda'))?.percent; if (e != null && c != null) ruRows.push([p.poll_date, p.fieldwork, p.pollster, p.sample ?? '', e, c, Math.round((e - c) * 100) / 100]) }
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-runoff-polls.csv'), csv(ruRows))
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-polls.json'), JSON.stringify({
+  description: 'National opinion polls for the 2026 Colombian presidential election — first round (all candidates) + runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda). Parsed deterministically from Wikipedia.',
+  source: 'Wikipedia "2026 Colombian presidential election" (rendered table HTML) + AS/COA poll tracker',
+  election: { first_round: '2026-05-31', runoff: '2026-06-21', runoff_matchup: 'Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda' },
+  counts: { first_round_polls: FR.length, first_round_rows: frRows.length - 1, runoff_polls: RU.length },
+  first_round: FR, runoff: RU,
+}, null, 2))
+
+console.log(`1º turno: ${FR.length} pesquisas (${frRows.length - 1} linhas), 2º turno: ${RU.length}`)
+const cands = new Set(); for (const p of FR) for (const r of p.results) cands.add(r.candidate)
+console.log(`candidatos 1T: ${cands.size} (${[...cands].join(', ')})`)
+console.log(`range 1T: ${FR[0]?.poll_date} → ${FR[FR.length - 1]?.poll_date}`)
+if (RU.length) console.log(`runoff amostra: ${JSON.stringify(RU.slice(-2).map((p) => [p.poll_date, p.pollster, p.results.map((r) => [r.candidate.split(' ').pop(), r.percent])]))}`)

polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+poll_date,fieldwork,pollster,sample,candidate,party,percent
+2025-01-29,27–29 Jan,CNC,1513,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,4.3
+2025-01-29,27–29 Jan,CNC,1513,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,4.7
+2025-01-29,27–29 Jan,CNC,1513,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,11.8
+2025-01-29,27–29 Jan,CNC,1513,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,12.7
+2025-01-29,27–29 Jan,CNC,1513,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,7.8
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,2.1
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,4.1
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,3.1
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,1.2
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,11.5
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,15.1
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,4
+2025-02-13,10–13 Feb,Guarumo,2140,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,0.4
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,3.6
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,7.4
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,6.2
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,1.1
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,13.4
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,13.6
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,7.6
+2025-03-20,18–20 Mar,CNC,1594,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,0.4
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,4.1
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,3.7
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,4.7
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,0.8
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,1.7
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,9.5
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,8.3
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,7.8
+2025-03-25,21–25 Mar,Invamer,1200,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,0.6
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,3.5
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,2.6
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,3.8
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,1
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,11.4
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,11.6
+2025-04-26,21–26 Apr,Guarumo,2159,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,4
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,2.1
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,María José Pizarro,Pacto Histórico,3.2
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,8.1
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,0.7
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,1.1
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,8.7
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,11.5
+2025-07-05,1–5 Jul,Guarumo,2122,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,3
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,8
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,2.5
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,0.4
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,13.7
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,8.9
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,6.4
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,2.6
+2025-10-16,11–16 Oct,CNC,1803,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,1.5
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,20.9
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,1.8
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,14.4
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,7.8
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,3.2
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,3.3
+2025-11-14,6–14 Nov,CNC,2140,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,0.6
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,19.6
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Daniel Quintero,Independiente,5.2
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,15.6
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,10.6
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,4.2
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,5.2
+2025-11-15,10–15 Nov,Yamil Cure S.A.S,2250,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,2.2
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,31.9
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,1.1
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,18.2
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,8.5
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,3.7
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,1.6
+2025-11-27,15–27 Nov,Invamer,2080,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,2.9
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,30.7
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,0.7
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,16.2
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,6.7
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Vicky Dávila,Independiente,3.6
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Juan Manuel Galán,Nuevo Liberalismo,1.6
+2025-12-17,13–17 Dec,W.A.A,11509,Juan Carlos Pinzón,Independiente,0.7
+2026-01-08,5–8 January 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4550,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,26.5
+2026-01-08,5–8 January 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4550,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,28
+2026-01-08,5–8 January 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4550,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,5.1
+2026-01-08,5–8 January 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4550,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,9.4
+2026-01-08,5–8 January 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4550,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.2
+2026-01-15,13–15 January 2026,Noticias RCN/Gad3,1207,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,30
+2026-01-15,13–15 January 2026,Noticias RCN/Gad3,1207,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,22
+2026-01-15,13–15 January 2026,Noticias RCN/Gad3,1207,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,3
+2026-01-15,13–15 January 2026,Noticias RCN/Gad3,1207,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,1
+2026-01-15,13–15 January 2026,Noticias RCN/Gad3,1207,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,1
+2026-01-21,15–21 January 2026,CNC/Cambio,2202,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,28.2
+2026-01-21,15–21 January 2026,CNC/Cambio,2202,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,15.5
+2026-01-21,15–21 January 2026,CNC/Cambio,2202,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,9.8
+2026-01-21,15–21 January 2026,CNC/Cambio,2202,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.3
+2026-01-22,14–22 January 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,4245,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,33.6
+2026-01-22,14–22 January 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,4245,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,18.2
+2026-01-22,14–22 January 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,4245,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,6.9
+2026-01-22,14–22 January 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,4245,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,3.9
+2026-01-22,14–22 January 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,4245,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0
+2026-02-04,27 January – 4 February 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,7298,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,31.4
+2026-02-04,27 January – 4 February 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,7298,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,32.1
+2026-02-04,27 January – 4 February 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,7298,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,3.8
+2026-02-04,27 January – 4 February 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,7298,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,7.6
+2026-02-04,27 January – 4 February 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,7298,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.3
+2026-02-20,February 2026,CELAG,,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,38.2
+2026-02-20,February 2026,CELAG,,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,25.2
+2026-02-20,February 2026,CELAG,,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,4.6
+2026-02-20,February 2026,CELAG,,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,4.4
+2026-02-20,February 2026,CELAG,,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,1
+2026-02-22,11–22 February 2026,Invamer,3800,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,37.1
+2026-02-22,11–22 February 2026,Invamer,3800,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,18.9
+2026-02-22,11–22 February 2026,Invamer,3800,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,10
+2026-02-22,11–22 February 2026,Invamer,3800,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,6.6
+2026-02-22,11–22 February 2026,Invamer,3800,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,1.8
+2026-03-12,10–12 March 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4291,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,36.4
+2026-03-12,10–12 March 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4291,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,27.9
+2026-03-12,10–12 March 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4291,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,17.5
+2026-03-12,10–12 March 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4291,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,7.8
+2026-03-12,10–12 March 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,4291,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.9
+2026-03-18,16–18 March 2026,Noticias RCN /Gad3,1200,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,35
+2026-03-18,16–18 March 2026,Noticias RCN /Gad3,1200,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,21
+2026-03-18,16–18 March 2026,Noticias RCN /Gad3,1200,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,16
+2026-03-18,16–18 March 2026,Noticias RCN /Gad3,1200,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,3
+2026-03-18,16–18 March 2026,Noticias RCN /Gad3,1200,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.1
+2026-03-20,March 2026,CELAG,,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,40.9
+2026-03-20,March 2026,CELAG,,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,15.4
+2026-03-20,March 2026,CELAG,,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,21.1
+2026-03-20,March 2026,CELAG,,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,3.6
+2026-03-20,March 2026,CELAG,,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.3
+2026-03-21,17–21 March 2026,CNC,2157,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,34.5
+2026-03-21,17–21 March 2026,CNC,2157,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,15.4
+2026-03-21,17–21 March 2026,CNC,2157,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,22.2
+2026-03-21,17–21 March 2026,CNC,2157,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,3.6
+2026-03-21,17–21 March 2026,CNC,2157,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.5
+2026-03-25,19–25 March 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,3736,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,37.5
+2026-03-25,19–25 March 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,3736,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,20.2
+2026-03-25,19–25 March 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,3736,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,19.9
+2026-03-25,19–25 March 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,3736,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,3.9
+2026-03-25,19–25 March 2026,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,3736,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.6
+2026-04-09,6–9 April 2026,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,3617,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,40.82
+2026-04-09,6–9 April 2026,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,3617,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,29.43
+2026-04-09,6–9 April 2026,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,3617,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,24.79
+2026-04-09,6–9 April 2026,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,3617,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,5.38
+2026-04-09,6–9 April 2026,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,3617,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.32
+2026-04-22,20–22 April 2026,GAD3,1500,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,36
+2026-04-22,20–22 April 2026,GAD3,1500,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,21
+2026-04-22,20–22 April 2026,GAD3,1500,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,13
+2026-04-22,20–22 April 2026,GAD3,1500,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,2.5
+2026-04-22,20–22 April 2026,GAD3,1500,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.1
+2026-04-24,15–24 April 2026,Invamer,3800,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,44.3
+2026-04-24,15–24 April 2026,Invamer,3800,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,21.5
+2026-04-24,15–24 April 2026,Invamer,3800,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,19.8
+2026-04-24,15–24 April 2026,Invamer,3800,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,2
+2026-04-24,15–24 April 2026,Invamer,3800,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.1
+2026-05-11,4–11 May 2026,Fundación Génesis Crea,4352,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,35.1
+2026-05-11,4–11 May 2026,Fundación Génesis Crea,4352,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,21.6
+2026-05-11,4–11 May 2026,Fundación Génesis Crea,4352,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,25.4
+2026-05-11,4–11 May 2026,Fundación Génesis Crea,4352,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,2.9
+2026-05-11,4–11 May 2026,Fundación Génesis Crea,4352,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.7
+2026-05-14,9–14 May 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,5039,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,36
+2026-05-14,9–14 May 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,5039,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,31.5
+2026-05-14,9–14 May 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,5039,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,16
+2026-05-14,9–14 May 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,5039,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,4.7
+2026-05-14,9–14 May 2026,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,5039,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.1
+2026-05-20,13–20 May 2026,Invamer,2224,Iván Cepeda,Pacto Histórico,44.6
+2026-05-20,13–20 May 2026,Invamer,2224,Abelardo de la Espriella,Defensores de la Patria,31.6
+2026-05-20,13–20 May 2026,Invamer,2224,Paloma Valencia,Centro Democrático,14
+2026-05-20,13–20 May 2026,Invamer,2224,Sergio Fajardo,Dignidad y Compromiso,2.2
+2026-05-20,13–20 May 2026,Invamer,2224,Roy Barreras,La Fuerza de la Paz,0.3

polls/colombia-polls.json

@@ -0,0 +1,1099 @@
+{
+  "description": "National opinion polls for the 2026 Colombian presidential election — first round (all candidates) + runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda). Parsed deterministically from Wikipedia.",
+  "source": "Wikipedia \"2026 Colombian presidential election\" (rendered table HTML) + AS/COA poll tracker",
+  "election": {
+    "first_round": "2026-05-31",
+    "runoff": "2026-06-21",
+    "runoff_matchup": "Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda"
+  },
+  "counts": {
+    "first_round_polls": 29,
+    "first_round_rows": 170,
+    "runoff_polls": 0
+  },
+  "first_round": [
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-01-29",
+      "fieldwork": "27–29 Jan",
+      "pollster": "CNC",
+      "sample": 1513,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 4.3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 4.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 11.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 12.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 7.8
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-02-13",
+      "fieldwork": "10–13 Feb",
+      "pollster": "Guarumo",
+      "sample": 2140,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 2.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 4.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 3.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 1.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 11.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 15.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 0.4
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-03-20",
+      "fieldwork": "18–20 Mar",
+      "pollster": "CNC",
+      "sample": 1594,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 3.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 7.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 6.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 1.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 13.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 13.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 7.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 0.4
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-03-25",
+      "fieldwork": "21–25 Mar",
+      "pollster": "Invamer",
+      "sample": 1200,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 4.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 3.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 4.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 0.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 1.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 9.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 8.3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 7.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 0.6
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-04-26",
+      "fieldwork": "21–26 Apr",
+      "pollster": "Guarumo",
+      "sample": 2159,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 3.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 2.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 3.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 11.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 11.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 4
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-07-05",
+      "fieldwork": "1–5 Jul",
+      "pollster": "Guarumo",
+      "sample": 2122,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 2.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "María José Pizarro",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 3.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 8.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 0.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 1.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 8.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 11.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 3
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-10-16",
+      "fieldwork": "11–16 Oct",
+      "pollster": "CNC",
+      "sample": 1803,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 2.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 0.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 13.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 8.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 6.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 2.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 1.5
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-11-14",
+      "fieldwork": "6–14 Nov",
+      "pollster": "CNC",
+      "sample": 2140,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 20.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 1.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 14.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 7.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 3.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 3.3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 0.6
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-11-15",
+      "fieldwork": "10–15 Nov",
+      "pollster": "Yamil Cure S.A.S",
+      "sample": 2250,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 19.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Daniel Quintero",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 5.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 15.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 10.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 4.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 5.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 2.2
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-11-27",
+      "fieldwork": "15–27 Nov",
+      "pollster": "Invamer",
+      "sample": 2080,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 31.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 1.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 18.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 8.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 3.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 1.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 2.9
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2025-12-17",
+      "fieldwork": "13–17 Dec",
+      "pollster": "W.A.A",
+      "sample": 11509,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 30.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 0.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 16.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 6.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Vicky Dávila",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 3.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán",
+          "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo",
+          "percent": 1.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón",
+          "party": "Independiente",
+          "percent": 0.7
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-01-08",
+      "fieldwork": "5–8 January 2026",
+      "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
+      "sample": 4550,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 26.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 28
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 5.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 9.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.2
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-01-15",
+      "fieldwork": "13–15 January 2026",
+      "pollster": "Noticias RCN/Gad3",
+      "sample": 1207,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 30
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 22
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-01-21",
+      "fieldwork": "15–21 January 2026",
+      "pollster": "CNC/Cambio",
+      "sample": 2202,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 28.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 15.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 9.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.3
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-01-22",
+      "fieldwork": "14–22 January 2026",
+      "pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica",
+      "sample": 4245,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 33.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 18.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 6.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 3.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-02-04",
+      "fieldwork": "27 January – 4 February 2026",
+      "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
+      "sample": 7298,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 31.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 32.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 3.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 7.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.3
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-02-20",
+      "fieldwork": "February 2026",
+      "pollster": "CELAG",
+      "sample": null,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 38.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 25.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 4.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 4.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-02-22",
+      "fieldwork": "11–22 February 2026",
+      "pollster": "Invamer",
+      "sample": 3800,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 37.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 18.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 10
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 6.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 1.8
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-03-12",
+      "fieldwork": "10–12 March 2026",
+      "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
+      "sample": 4291,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 36.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 27.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 17.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 7.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.9
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-03-18",
+      "fieldwork": "16–18 March 2026",
+      "pollster": "Noticias RCN /Gad3",
+      "sample": 1200,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 35
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 21
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 16
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-03-20",
+      "fieldwork": "March 2026",
+      "pollster": "CELAG",
+      "sample": null,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 40.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 15.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 21.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 3.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.3
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-03-21",
+      "fieldwork": "17–21 March 2026",
+      "pollster": "CNC",
+      "sample": 2157,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 34.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 15.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 22.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 3.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.5
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-03-25",
+      "fieldwork": "19–25 March 2026",
+      "pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica",
+      "sample": 3736,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 37.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 20.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 19.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 3.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.6
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-04-09",
+      "fieldwork": "6–9 April 2026",
+      "pollster": "Atlas Intel/SEMANA",
+      "sample": 3617,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 40.82
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 29.43
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 24.79
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 5.38
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.32
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "fieldwork": "20–22 April 2026",
+      "pollster": "GAD3",
+      "sample": 1500,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 36
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 21
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 13
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 2.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-04-24",
+      "fieldwork": "15–24 April 2026",
+      "pollster": "Invamer",
+      "sample": 3800,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 44.3
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 21.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 19.8
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-05-11",
+      "fieldwork": "4–11 May 2026",
+      "pollster": "Fundación Génesis Crea",
+      "sample": 4352,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 35.1
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 21.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 25.4
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 2.9
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.7
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-05-14",
+      "fieldwork": "9–14 May 2026",
+      "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA",
+      "sample": 5039,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 36
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 31.5
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 16
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 4.7
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.1
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "poll_date": "2026-05-20",
+      "fieldwork": "13–20 May 2026",
+      "pollster": "Invamer",
+      "sample": 2224,
+      "results": [
+        {
+          "candidate": "Iván Cepeda",
+          "party": "Pacto Histórico",
+          "percent": 44.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella",
+          "party": "Defensores de la Patria",
+          "percent": 31.6
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Paloma Valencia",
+          "party": "Centro Democrático",
+          "percent": 14
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo",
+          "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso",
+          "percent": 2.2
+        },
+        {
+          "candidate": "Roy Barreras",
+          "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz",
+          "percent": 0.3
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "runoff": []
+}

polls/colombia-runoff-polls.csv

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+poll_date,fieldwork,pollster,sample,espriella_pct,cepeda_pct,lead_pp