# Data Dictionary — AFOS Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence

> 🌐 **EN** — Data dictionary for the AFOS Colombia 2026 electoral-divergence dataset (polls × prediction market). · **PT** — Dicionário de dados do dataset AFOS Colômbia 2026 (pesquisas × mercado de previsão). · **ES** — Diccionario de datos del dataset AFOS Colombia 2026 (encuestas × mercado de predicción).
> Column names and definitions below are kept in **English** (CSV/academic standard). · Os nomes e definições de coluna seguem em **inglês** (padrão dos CSVs). · Los nombres y definiciones de columna se mantienen en **inglés** (estándar de los CSV).

All figures trace to a named pollster's published release (compiled from the Wikipedia aggregation, rowspan/colspan-aware parser) or to a public Polymarket market. Missing values are left **blank**, never imputed.

## `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` (long format)

One row per candidate per poll. 29 polls × up to 10 candidates = 170 rows, 2025→May 2026.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `poll_date` | date | End of fieldwork (`YYYY-MM-DD`). For tables whose dates omit the year, the year is inferred from the table's predominant year. |
| `fieldwork` | string | Fieldwork window as published. |
| `pollster` | string | Polling firm / publishing client (e.g. "Invamer", "AtlasIntel/SEMANA"). |
| `sample` | integer | Sample size. |
| `candidate` | string | Candidate full name. |
| `party` | string | Party / movement. |
| `percent` | number | First-round voting intention, %. |

**Candidates tracked (10, present in the first-round CSV):** Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico), Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensores de la Patria), Sergio Fajardo, Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Vicky Dávila, Daniel Quintero, Juan Manuel Galán (Nuevo Liberalismo), María José Pizarro, Juan Carlos Pinzón, Roy Barreras. *(Germán Vargas Lleras appears in the market-odds series only, not in these polls.)*

## `polls/colombia-polls.json`

Structured object: `{ description, source, election, counts, first_round[], runoff[] }`. Each poll carries `poll_date`, `fieldwork`, `pollster`, `sample`, `results[]` (candidate/party/percent). `runoff[]` is empty (see runoff note in the README).

## `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv`

Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate, from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market (covers the campaign through the 21 Jun runoff). Includes **all** market candidates, not only those polled.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD`. |
| `candidate` | string | Candidate name (party suffix stripped). |
| `polymarket_pct` | number | Implied win probability, % (daily close). |
| `volume_usd` | number | Cumulative market volume, USD. |

## `data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv`

Each first-round poll result joined to the candidate's market odds on the poll date.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `poll_date` | date | Poll fieldwork end. |
| `pollster` | string | Polling firm. |
| `candidate` | string | Candidate (canonical name). |
| `poll_pct` | number | First-round vote intention, %. |
| `polymarket_pct` | number | Win probability on `polymarket_date`, %. |
| `polymarket_date` | date | Market date used: nearest available **on or before** `poll_date`. |
| `divergence_pp` | number | `polymarket_pct − poll_pct`, percentage points. |

> **Interpretation caveat:** a poll reports first-round *vote share*; the Polymarket contract prices *probability of winning the election*. These are different quantities — `divergence_pp` is the gap AFOS tracks editorially (the spread is the signal, see README "Notable divergences"), **not** a like-for-like polling-error metric.