{ "description": "National opinion polls for the 2026 Colombian presidential election — first round (all candidates) + runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda). Parsed deterministically from Wikipedia.", "source": "Wikipedia \"2026 Colombian presidential election\" (rendered table HTML) + AS/COA poll tracker", "election": { "first_round": "2026-05-31", "runoff": "2026-06-21", "runoff_matchup": "Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda" }, "counts": { "first_round_polls": 29, "first_round_rows": 170, "runoff_polls": 0 }, "first_round": [ { "poll_date": "2025-01-29", "fieldwork": "27–29 Jan", "pollster": "CNC", "sample": 1513, "results": [ { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 4.3 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 4.7 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 11.8 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 12.7 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 7.8 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-02-13", "fieldwork": "10–13 Feb", "pollster": "Guarumo", "sample": 2140, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 2.1 }, { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 4.1 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 3.1 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 1.2 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 11.5 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 15.1 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 4 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 0.4 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-03-20", "fieldwork": "18–20 Mar", "pollster": "CNC", "sample": 1594, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 3.6 }, { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 7.4 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 6.2 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 1.1 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 13.4 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 13.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 7.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 0.4 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-03-25", "fieldwork": "21–25 Mar", "pollster": "Invamer", "sample": 1200, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 4.1 }, { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 3.7 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 4.7 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 0.8 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 1.7 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 9.5 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 8.3 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 7.8 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 0.6 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-04-26", "fieldwork": "21–26 Apr", "pollster": "Guarumo", "sample": 2159, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 3.5 }, { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 2.6 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 3.8 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 1 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 11.4 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 11.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 4 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-07-05", "fieldwork": "1–5 Jul", "pollster": "Guarumo", "sample": 2122, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 2.1 }, { "candidate": "María José Pizarro", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 3.2 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 8.1 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 0.7 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 1.1 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 8.7 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 11.5 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 3 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-10-16", "fieldwork": "11–16 Oct", "pollster": "CNC", "sample": 1803, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 8 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 2.5 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 0.4 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 13.7 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 8.9 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 6.4 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 2.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 1.5 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-11-14", "fieldwork": "6–14 Nov", "pollster": "CNC", "sample": 2140, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 20.9 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 1.8 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 14.4 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 7.8 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 3.2 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 3.3 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 0.6 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-11-15", "fieldwork": "10–15 Nov", "pollster": "Yamil Cure S.A.S", "sample": 2250, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 19.6 }, { "candidate": "Daniel Quintero", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 5.2 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 15.6 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 10.6 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 4.2 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 5.2 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 2.2 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-11-27", "fieldwork": "15–27 Nov", "pollster": "Invamer", "sample": 2080, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 31.9 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 1.1 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 18.2 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 8.5 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 3.7 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 1.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 2.9 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2025-12-17", "fieldwork": "13–17 Dec", "pollster": "W.A.A", "sample": 11509, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 30.7 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 0.7 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 16.2 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 6.7 }, { "candidate": "Vicky Dávila", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 3.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Manuel Galán", "party": "Nuevo Liberalismo", "percent": 1.6 }, { "candidate": "Juan Carlos Pinzón", "party": "Independiente", "percent": 0.7 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-01-08", "fieldwork": "5–8 January 2026", "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA", "sample": 4550, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 26.5 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 28 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 5.1 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 9.4 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.2 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-01-15", "fieldwork": "13–15 January 2026", "pollster": "Noticias RCN/Gad3", "sample": 1207, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 30 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 22 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 3 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 1 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-01-21", "fieldwork": "15–21 January 2026", "pollster": "CNC/Cambio", "sample": 2202, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 28.2 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 15.5 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 9.8 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.3 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-01-22", "fieldwork": "14–22 January 2026", "pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica", "sample": 4245, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 33.6 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 18.2 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 6.9 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 3.9 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-02-04", "fieldwork": "27 January – 4 February 2026", "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA", "sample": 7298, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 31.4 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 32.1 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 3.8 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 7.6 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.3 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-02-20", "fieldwork": "February 2026", "pollster": "CELAG", "sample": null, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 38.2 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 25.2 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 4.6 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 4.4 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-02-22", "fieldwork": "11–22 February 2026", "pollster": "Invamer", "sample": 3800, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 37.1 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 18.9 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 10 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 6.6 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 1.8 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-03-12", "fieldwork": "10–12 March 2026", "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA", "sample": 4291, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 36.4 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 27.9 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 17.5 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 7.8 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.9 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-03-18", "fieldwork": "16–18 March 2026", "pollster": "Noticias RCN/Gad3", "sample": 1200, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 35 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 21 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 16 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 3 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-03-20", "fieldwork": "March 2026", "pollster": "CELAG", "sample": null, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 40.9 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 15.4 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 21.1 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 3.6 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.3 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-03-21", "fieldwork": "17–21 March 2026", "pollster": "CNC", "sample": 2157, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 34.5 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 15.4 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 22.2 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 3.6 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.5 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-03-25", "fieldwork": "19–25 March 2026", "pollster": "Guarumo/EcoAnalítica", "sample": 3736, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 37.5 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 20.2 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 19.9 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 3.9 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.6 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-04-09", "fieldwork": "6–9 April 2026", "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA", "sample": 3617, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 40.82 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 29.43 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 24.79 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 5.38 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.32 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-04-22", "fieldwork": "20–22 April 2026", "pollster": "GAD3", "sample": 1500, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 36 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 21 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 13 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 2.5 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-04-24", "fieldwork": "15–24 April 2026", "pollster": "Invamer", "sample": 3800, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 44.3 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 21.5 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 19.8 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 2 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-05-11", "fieldwork": "4–11 May 2026", "pollster": "Fundación Génesis Crea", "sample": 4352, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 35.1 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 21.6 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 25.4 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 2.9 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.7 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-05-14", "fieldwork": "9–14 May 2026", "pollster": "AtlasIntel/SEMANA", "sample": 5039, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 36 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 31.5 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 16 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 4.7 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.1 } ] }, { "poll_date": "2026-05-20", "fieldwork": "13–20 May 2026", "pollster": "Invamer", "sample": 2224, "results": [ { "candidate": "Iván Cepeda", "party": "Pacto Histórico", "percent": 44.6 }, { "candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "party": "Defensores de la Patria", "percent": 31.6 }, { "candidate": "Paloma Valencia", "party": "Centro Democrático", "percent": 14 }, { "candidate": "Sergio Fajardo", "party": "Dignidad y Compromiso", "percent": 2.2 }, { "candidate": "Roy Barreras", "party": "La Fuerza de la Paz", "percent": 0.3 } ] } ], "runoff": [] }