cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
title: "AFOS · United Kingdom 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
abstract: >-
  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for the United
  Kingdom's 2024 general election (House of Commons, 4 July 2024), with explicit
  poll-versus-market divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote
  share; the market prices the probability of winning the most seats (first-past-the-post
  plurality). On the eve of the vote the market gave Labour about 99% to win the most seats
  while polls measured around 39% vote share; Labour won 411 of 650 seats on 33.7% of the
  vote. Reform UK was third in votes (14.3%) but took only 5 seats, a gap the market priced
  throughout. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster releases (via the
  Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket.
type: dataset
authors:
  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
keywords:
  - elections
  - United Kingdom
  - opinion polls
  - prediction markets
  - divergence
  - open data
license: CC-BY-4.0
repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/uk-2024-electoral-divergence"
url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
version: "2026.06"
date-released: "2026-06-13"