| "markdown": "# World (2026-04-22 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 49 | GeoRisk 22 | Breadth +0.37 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...? lagging Russia enter Havrylivka by...? — 32¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"-38c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"8c\"}\n- gap: 32\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0xb63e712c51b4bc1f1845759d36bf12cbfbae34a27687fb79d5e562a73f67aa8e\n- laggingTicker: 0x5ed7e4e4f257e33b0b00cd7042b210efbe44e8b207446281f13bc90cf5a6bc90\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-pcfl4q`\n → Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 38 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 13 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T504.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price on Apr 24, 2026?: $505 or above\",\"price\":91},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price on Apr 24, 2026?:...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.020\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?: Above 4.020\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.020`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.020`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.055\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.055?: Above 4.055\n- price: 8\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.08\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.055`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR23-4.055`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 13h — How many initial jobless claims will there b…\n- ticker: KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-195000\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Apr 18, 2026?: At least 195000\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 13\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-195000`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-195000`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: Activity 71→100 (+29), Disagreement 41→51 (+10)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-22T11:45:00.169Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":71,\"to\":100,\"Δ\":29,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Disagreement\",\"from\":41,\"to\":51,\"Δ\":10,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":41,\"geoRisk\":20,\"breadth\":0.33,\"activity\":71}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":22,\"breadth\":0.38,\"activity\":100}\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY -0.4% vs Oil +5.1% — supply shock, equity drag\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"-0.4%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"+5.1%\"}\n- hypothesis: supply shock, equity drag\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 9h @ 1¢ — margin of victory for Yes in the Virginia redistr…\n- ticker: KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-YES-P1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?: Yes, 0-3%\n- listedAgoHours: 9\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 705166\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-YES-P1`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 278 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 492 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1242 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 683 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2803 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1477 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 319 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 449 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4771ms", |
