Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-21

2026-04-21.json

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-21",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-21T23:50:32.367Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 55,
+    "geoRisk": 21,
+    "breadth": 0.36,
+    "activity": 83
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 709.5,
+      "changePct": -0.11
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 647.48,
+      "changePct": -0.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 277.34,
+      "changePct": 0.63
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.22,
+      "changePct": 0.86
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.61,
+      "changePct": -0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.85,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 87.02,
+      "changePct": -0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.6,
+      "changePct": -0.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 442.58,
+      "changePct": -0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 119.67,
+      "changePct": 2.73
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.84,
+      "changePct": 0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.02,
+      "changePct": -0.75
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.32,
+      "changePct": -0.11
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.82,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 55.09,
+      "changePct": 0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.18,
+      "changePct": -0.68
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.28,
+      "changePct": -1.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.95,
+      "changePct": -3.95
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "there be more than 30 transit calls t… lagging Iran agrees to end enrichment of uran… — 14¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-21 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 52 | GeoRisk 20 | Breadth +0.37 | Activity 83\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 37.8σ volume @ 52¢ — federal funds rate be above 2.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T2.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 2.00%\n- price: 52\n- residualVr: 37.827\n- vr: 38.694\n- volume24h: 855\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3ax3`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T2.00`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T2.00`\n\n## [residual] 21.1σ volume @ 62¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.8\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 2.8%\n- price: 62\n- residualVr: 21.064\n- vr: 21.432\n- volume24h: 904\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3mcq`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.8`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.8`\n\n## [residual] 8.5σ volume @ 60¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.4\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.4%\n- price: 60\n- residualVr: 8.462\n- vr: 8.83\n- volume24h: 850\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2ve2t`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.4`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.4`\n\n## [divergence] How many senators will vote for Trump… lagging Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — 17¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"-13c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: ≤49\",\"Δ\":\"21c\"}\n- gap: 17\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x77f4da92e95343c2debdc8cc0ea577d0065f63f566974bc41152548b7af068fc\n- laggingTicker: 0x1bbea465e3e0468b7ddd123ea8eaf09ffcad34f3e65c9333e7f78fc7e96554c2\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-tz08my`\n  → Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] European Central Bank Maintain current rate …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXCBDECISIONEU\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXCBDECISIONEU-26APR30-C25P\",\"title\":\"Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?: Cut more than 2...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3gp09b`\n\n## [consensus_break] NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 79162\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x885af440160b32c882027f0ed610b6a9b311262a6a0518fa9529a050f078fad2\",\"title\":\"NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner: Hakeem Jeffries\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x545ce460563d3...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6w9ws4`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 232722\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee\",\"title\":\"PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Janelle Stelson\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0xead98c2f05aa5...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xr8vi5`\n\n## [divergence] What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … lagging Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June? — 16¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $75\",\"Δ\":\"14c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↓ $80\",\"Δ\":\"38c\"}\n- gap: 16\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: 0x40f8bd1249712c000fe454859eead3984281ccba71e98e4c30a971d15290a706\n- laggingTicker: 0x4ea2cd49c462b6eab31d586d5840f974b51909cfde202d6534949fab85342db5\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-a4l6bv`\n  → Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $75 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Iran military action against ___? overshooting there be more than 30 transit calls t… — 15¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 2\",\"Δ\":\"-19c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Iran military action against ___ by April 30?: Syria\",\"Δ\":\"10c\"}\n- gap: -15\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26APR26-T30\n- laggingTicker: 0xd65e2c5b33efac4dd37747f1bcf42be3b926ad8b90a7b2583ad8d6735ab9546d\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f63zcw`\n  → Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 2 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 6h — UK inflation rate YoY for March be above 3.7…\n- ticker: KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.7\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.7%?: Above 3.7%\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.7`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.7`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 275 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 500 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1258 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 696 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2793 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1494 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 275 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 409 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1841
+}