Add world state snapshot for 2026-06-02

2026-06-02.json

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-06-02",
+  "timestamp": "2026-06-02T23:50:28.326Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 45,
+    "geoRisk": 14,
+    "breadth": 0.35,
+    "activity": 17
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 758.43,
+      "changePct": 0.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 739.65,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 288.46,
+      "changePct": -0.74
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 23.86,
+      "changePct": 2.62
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.02,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.25,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.49,
+      "changePct": -0.42
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.84,
+      "changePct": -0.61
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 411.45,
+      "changePct": -1.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 135.36,
+      "changePct": 5.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.54,
+      "changePct": -3.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 39.96,
+      "changePct": 2.76
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.77,
+      "changePct": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.32,
+      "changePct": -0.34
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 57.29,
+      "changePct": 1.69
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 70.13,
+      "changePct": 2.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 40.5,
+      "changePct": -2.88
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 16.21,
+      "changePct": -0.67
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Thomas Massie receive between 45% and… lagging Democratic win the House race for IL-… — 110¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY +0.3% vs Oil +5.1% — supply shock, equity drag",
+      "implication": "supply shock, equity drag",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-06-02 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 47 | GeoRisk 14 | Breadth +0.35 | Activity 17\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Thomas Massie receive between 45% and… lagging Democratic win the House race for IL-… — 110¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for IL-04?: Patty Garcia\",\"Δ\":\"84c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Thomas Massie receive between 45% and 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 K\",\"Δ\":\"10c\"}\n- gap: 110\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-D\n- laggingTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26TMASTMAS-46\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-lppeq5`\n  → Will Democratic win the House race for IL-04?: Patty Garcia spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 7.8σ volume @ 5¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.2%\n- price: 5\n- residualVr: 7.751\n- vr: 10.107\n- volume24h: 2651.42\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3nty`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2`\n\n## [consensus_break] CA-13 Primary Winners: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 403707\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x13bf01871ebf937568d1189a22f1e5f437de8a54ffe0533abe3f5c5629aa1e33\",\"title\":\"CA-13 Primary Winners: Daniel Garibay Rodriguez\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0x897bd0d602de77e...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ynpdge`\n\n## [consensus_break] How long will The Odyssey directed by Christ…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXMOVIELENGTH\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXMOVIELENGTH-26JUL30-ODY-155\",\"title\":\"How long will The Odyssey directed by Christopher Nolan be?: At least 2h 35m\",\"price\":92},{\"ticker\":\"KXMOVIELENGTH-26JUL30-OD...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-glf6du`\n\n## [consensus_break] Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=42¢, range 89¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-26-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":92},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-26-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 42\n- range: 89\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 57→17 (-40)\n- baselineAt: 2026-06-02T11:30:00.092Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":57,\"to\":17,\"Δ\":-40,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":19,\"breadth\":0.44,\"activity\":57}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":47,\"geoRisk\":14,\"breadth\":0.35,\"activity\":17}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.230\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.230?: Above 4.230\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.230`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.230`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.265\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.265?: Above 4.265\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.265`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.265`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.270\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.270?: Above 4.270\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.270`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26JUN03-4.270`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +0.3% vs Oil +5.1% — supply shock, equity drag\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+0.3%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"+5.1%\"}\n- hypothesis: supply shock, equity drag\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 237 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 485 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1092 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 658 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3227 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1104 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 305 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 273 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1655
+}