{
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "timestamp": "2026-04-02T21:10:43.624Z",
  "index": {
    "uncertainty": 22,
    "geopolitical": 62,
    "momentum": 0.06
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "price": 655.13,
      "changePct": 0.81
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "price": 33.54,
      "changePct": -1.84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "price": 86.45,
      "changePct": -0.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "price": 436.88,
      "changePct": 1.82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "price": 123.39,
      "changePct": -2.7
    }
  ],
  "topics": [
    {
      "name": "Geopolitical",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
          "ticker": "0xd9fb1184af0064e5e3",
          "price": 10,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 359444.58327400027,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
          "ticker": "0x6bd56627aa21311850",
          "price": 11,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 55123.256466,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
          "ticker": "0x5db999fad322cea291",
          "price": 55,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 203694.41991799997,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026",
          "ticker": "0xb23587fc1e319cdf9a",
          "price": 50,
          "delta": -6,
          "volume": 13731,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 35
    },
    {
      "name": "Economy",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease",
          "ticker": "0xd72622d154dfe65b9c",
          "price": 0,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 1022313.8407500003,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Fed decision in April?: No change",
          "ticker": "0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5",
          "price": 98,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 676012.0539590003,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase",
          "ticker": "0xd4d00e5bf8b960cc37",
          "price": 1,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 613864.49299,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%",
          "ticker": "0xa7abe7ea40a00434c7",
          "price": 22,
          "delta": 8,
          "volume": 4223,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 56
    },
    {
      "name": "Energy",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford",
          "ticker": "0x11801110e49798883d",
          "price": 1,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 0,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Oil",
          "ticker": "USO",
          "price": 123.39,
          "delta": -342,
          "volume": 0,
          "venue": "traditional",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
          "ticker": "KXAAAGASD-26APR02-4.080",
          "price": 55,
          "delta": 14,
          "volume": 4216,
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "isAnchor": false
        },
        {
          "title": "Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm",
          "ticker": "KXNATGASD-26APR0217-T2.725",
          "price": 59,
          "delta": 59,
          "volume": 0,
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 31
    },
    {
      "name": "Elections",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence",
          "ticker": "0x41c6341dd79903aca4",
          "price": 1,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 758676.4133980002,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock",
          "ticker": "0xdce84960dce38aa4a5",
          "price": 1,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 713703.504902,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff",
          "ticker": "0x74dba1ce1ae9dd5354",
          "price": 5,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 660826.0323,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi",
          "ticker": "0x79e008f552c7459175",
          "price": 100,
          "delta": 46,
          "volume": 186587,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 298
    },
    {
      "name": "Crypto",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m",
          "ticker": "0xbb57ccf5853a85487b",
          "price": 49,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 20232.630437,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
          "ticker": "0x4bd2d6744cfb40bd33",
          "price": 5,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 5974.227549,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus",
          "ticker": "0x0b4987432902340aec",
          "price": 100,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 4340.12,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t",
          "ticker": "0xd8eb7920b5dabee320",
          "price": 96,
          "delta": 56,
          "volume": 42,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 32
    },
    {
      "name": "Tech",
      "movers": [
        {
          "title": "Largest Company end of June?: Apple",
          "ticker": "0xc2db6688c6df422104",
          "price": 9,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 39251.967257,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026",
          "ticker": "0x349be0f6283a219826",
          "price": 97,
          "delta": -5,
          "volume": 11285.145936000003,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M",
          "ticker": "0x6c5974b64df0ec88ca",
          "price": 2,
          "delta": 0,
          "volume": 11003.224719000002,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": true
        },
        {
          "title": "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30",
          "ticker": "0x8cc19466564cb36bae",
          "price": 47,
          "delta": -8,
          "volume": 598,
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "isAnchor": false
        }
      ],
      "totalChanges": 38
    }
  ],
  "topEdges": [
    {
      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
      "edge": 85,
      "direction": "no",
      "price": 100
    },
    {
      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
      "edge": 82,
      "direction": "no",
      "price": 97
    },
    {
      "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor",
      "edge": 80,
      "direction": "yes",
      "price": 15
    },
    {
      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
      "edge": 78,
      "direction": "yes",
      "price": 2
    },
    {
      "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor",
      "edge": 75,
      "direction": "yes",
      "price": 15
    }
  ],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling"
    },
    {
      "description": "Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid"
    },
    {
      "description": "Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%"
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World State \u2014 2026-04-02T21:06 UTC\n\nSF Index: Uncertainty 22/100 | Geopolitical Risk 62/100 | Momentum +0.06\n\nMarkets: SPY $655.13 (+0.81%) | VIXY $33.54 (-1.84%) | TLT $86.45 (-0.18%) | GLD $436.88 (+1.82%) | USO $123.39 (-2.7%)\n\n## Geopolitical\n- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: 10c [polymarket]\n- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: 11c [polymarket]\n- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 55c [polymarket]\n- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026: 50c (-6c) [polymarket]\n\n## Economy\n- Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease: 0c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: No change: 98c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase: 1c [polymarket]\n- How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%: 22c (+8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Energy\n- EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford: 1c [polymarket]\n- Oil: 123.39c (-342c) [traditional]\n- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?: 55c (+14c) [kalshi]\n- Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm: 59c (+59c) [kalshi]\n\n## Elections\n- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff: 5c [polymarket]\n- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi: 100c (+46c) [polymarket]\n\n## Crypto\n- What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m: 49c [polymarket]\n- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: 5c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus: 100c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t: 96c (+56c) [polymarket]\n\n## Tech\n- Largest Company end of June?: Apple: 9c [polymarket]\n- Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026: 97c (-5c) [polymarket]\n- USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M: 2c [polymarket]\n- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30: 47c (-8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Mispriced (top edges)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 100c, model says no (85c edge)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 97c, model says no (82c edge)\n- Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor: 15c, model says yes (80c edge)\n\n## Divergence Alerts\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n- Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid\n- Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions World Model \u2014 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nDrill down: GET /api/public/query?q=TOPIC | /api/public/market/TICKER | /api/public/contagion",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 667
}