{
  "date": "2026-05-24",
  "timestamp": "2026-05-24T23:50:28.346Z",
  "index": {
    "disagreement": 51,
    "geoRisk": 54,
    "breadth": 0.36,
    "activity": 100
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "price": 745.04,
      "changePct": 0.27
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QQQ",
      "price": 716.77,
      "changePct": 0.11
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "price": 285.27,
      "changePct": 0.95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "price": 25.45,
      "changePct": 0.69
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHY",
      "price": 82.11,
      "changePct": -0.02
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IEF",
      "price": 93.88,
      "changePct": 0.07
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "price": 84.67,
      "changePct": 0.49
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HYG",
      "price": 79.92,
      "changePct": -0.01
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "price": 413.65,
      "changePct": -0.78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "price": 141.93,
      "changePct": -1.09
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UNG",
      "price": 10.98,
      "changePct": -3.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CPER",
      "price": 38.9,
      "changePct": 0.83
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UUP",
      "price": 27.77,
      "changePct": 0.09
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FXE",
      "price": 107.11,
      "changePct": -0.12
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "price": 59.45,
      "changePct": 0.52
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EEM",
      "price": 65.93,
      "changePct": -0.15
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "price": 43.06,
      "changePct": -2.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ETHE",
      "price": 16.72,
      "changePct": -3.63
    }
  ],
  "topics": [],
  "topEdges": [],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "Republican win the House race for KY-… lagging Republican party win the Attorney Gen… — 78¢ gap [US Elections]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-24 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 54 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Republican win the House race for KY-… lagging Republican party win the Attorney Gen… — 78¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Republican party win the Attorney General race in South Carolina?: Repu\",\"Δ\":\"89c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Republican win the House race for KY-06?: Republican party\",\"Δ\":\"18c\"}\n- gap: 78\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXATTYGENSC-26-R\n- laggingTicker: KXHOUSERACE-KY06-26-R\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9z95le`\n  → Will the Republican party win the Attorney General race in South Carolina?: Repu spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.7σ volume @ 23¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in November?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 23\n- residualVr: 3.655\n- vr: 4.306\n- volume24h: 544.46\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kyzug2`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`\n\n## [consensus_break] Lily Tang Williams be the Republican nominee…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: KXNHPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-MBAI\",\"title\":\"Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Melissa Bailey\",\"price\":5},{\"ticker\":\"KXNHPRIMARY-02D26-MGOO\",\"title\":\"Wil...\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-1ps04`\n\n## [consensus_break] How many corporate bankruptcies will there b…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBANKRUPTCY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-550\",\"title\":\"How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 550\",\"price\":93},{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-600\",\"title\":\"How many corp...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-mowfkt`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-NGRO\",\"title\":\"Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?: Nikki Gronli\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [residual] 3.1σ volume @ 14¢ — CPI rise more than 0.6% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%\n- price: 14\n- residualVr: 3.097\n- vr: 3.748\n- volume24h: 659.49\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afdf`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`\n\n## [regime_shift] geopolitical tension rising: GeoRisk 25→54 (+29)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-24T11:45:00.149Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":25,\"to\":54,\"Δ\":29,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":25,\"breadth\":0.27,\"activity\":86}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":54,\"breadth\":0.36,\"activity\":100}\n  → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [residual] 2.6σ volume @ 20¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in September?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 20\n- residualVr: 2.578\n- vr: 3.229\n- volume24h: 638.11\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fgvn5l`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.500?: Above 4.500\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASW-26MAY25-4.500`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump say \"Drill Baby Drill\"?\n- ticker: KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-DRIL\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump say \"Drill Baby Drill\" before May 25, 2026?: Drill Baby Drill\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-DRIL`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25-DRIL`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 229 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 391 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1070 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 607 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2978 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1014 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 296 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 238 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4032ms",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1676
}