"""Bootstrap metrics for absolute and chain-conditional GRIP scoring.""" from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass import numpy as np import pandas as pd @dataclass(frozen=True) class MetricSummary: """Accuracy, baseline-normalized score, and bootstrap intervals.""" rows: int items: int accuracy: float baseline: float above_baseline: float | None accuracy_ci_low: float accuracy_ci_high: float above_baseline_ci_low: float | None above_baseline_ci_high: float | None no_signal: bool def above_baseline_score(accuracy: float, baseline: float) -> float | None: """Return (accuracy - baseline) / (1 - baseline), or None at baseline 1.""" if baseline >= 1.0: return None return (accuracy - baseline) / (1.0 - baseline) def _observed(frame: pd.DataFrame, correct_column: str) -> tuple[float, float]: accuracy = float(frame[correct_column].astype(bool).mean()) baseline = float(frame["ground_truth"].astype(str).value_counts(normalize=True).max()) return accuracy, baseline def bootstrap_metric( frame: pd.DataFrame, correct_column: str, *, resamples: int = 10_000, seed: int = 20260915, ) -> MetricSummary: """Bootstrap over unique domain/stem items, retaining repeated levels together.""" if frame.empty: raise ValueError("Cannot summarize an empty frame") working = frame.copy() working["_item"] = working["domain"].astype(str) + "/" + working["stem"].astype(str) accuracy, baseline = _observed(working, correct_column) score = above_baseline_score(accuracy, baseline) labels = sorted(working["ground_truth"].astype(str).unique()) label_index = {label: index for index, label in enumerate(labels)} grouped = list(working.groupby("_item", sort=False)) correct_sums = np.array( [group[correct_column].astype(bool).sum() for _, group in grouped], dtype=float ) totals = np.array([len(group) for _, group in grouped], dtype=float) label_counts = np.zeros((len(grouped), len(labels)), dtype=float) for group_index, (_, group) in enumerate(grouped): for label, count in group["ground_truth"].astype(str).value_counts().items(): label_counts[group_index, label_index[label]] = count generator = np.random.default_rng(seed) accuracies: list[np.ndarray] = [] scores: list[np.ndarray] = [] batch_size = 256 for start in range(0, resamples, batch_size): batch = min(batch_size, resamples - start) picks = generator.integers(0, len(grouped), size=(batch, len(grouped))) # Convert sampled group indexes to multiplicities before aggregating. # Indexing label_counts directly with ``picks`` creates a potentially # enormous batch x items x labels tensor for mixed-format suites. weights = np.zeros((batch, len(grouped)), dtype=np.int32) batch_indexes = np.repeat(np.arange(batch), len(grouped)) np.add.at(weights, (batch_indexes, picks.ravel()), 1) sampled_correct = weights @ correct_sums sampled_total = weights @ totals sampled_accuracy = sampled_correct / sampled_total sampled_labels = weights @ label_counts sampled_baseline = sampled_labels.max(axis=1) / sampled_total accuracies.append(sampled_accuracy) valid = sampled_baseline < 1.0 sampled_score = np.full(batch, np.nan) sampled_score[valid] = ( sampled_accuracy[valid] - sampled_baseline[valid] ) / (1.0 - sampled_baseline[valid]) scores.append(sampled_score) accuracy_samples = np.concatenate(accuracies) score_samples = np.concatenate(scores) accuracy_ci = np.quantile(accuracy_samples, [0.025, 0.975]) finite_scores = score_samples[np.isfinite(score_samples)] score_ci = ( np.quantile(finite_scores, [0.025, 0.975]) if finite_scores.size else np.array([np.nan, np.nan]) ) return MetricSummary( rows=len(working), items=len(grouped), accuracy=accuracy, baseline=baseline, above_baseline=score, accuracy_ci_low=float(accuracy_ci[0]), accuracy_ci_high=float(accuracy_ci[1]), above_baseline_ci_low=float(score_ci[0]) if score is not None else None, above_baseline_ci_high=float(score_ci[1]) if score is not None else None, no_signal=baseline >= 1.0, ) def metric_dict(prefix: str, metric: MetricSummary) -> dict[str, object]: """Flatten one metric summary under a stable column prefix.""" return { f"{prefix}_rows": metric.rows, f"{prefix}_items": metric.items, f"{prefix}_accuracy": metric.accuracy, f"{prefix}_baseline": metric.baseline, f"{prefix}_above_baseline": metric.above_baseline, f"{prefix}_accuracy_ci_low": metric.accuracy_ci_low, f"{prefix}_accuracy_ci_high": metric.accuracy_ci_high, f"{prefix}_above_baseline_ci_low": metric.above_baseline_ci_low, f"{prefix}_above_baseline_ci_high": metric.above_baseline_ci_high, f"{prefix}_no_signal": metric.no_signal, }