갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-07-30",
+"asOf": "2026-07-31",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": "recovery",
@@ -34,36 +34,36 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:43.922999+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-30T23:18:00.259560+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"phase": "expansion",
-"phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "low",
+"phase": "slowdown",
+"phaseLabel": "둔화",
+"confidence": "medium",
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (284bp)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (287bp)",
 "수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.45%)",
+"VIX 상승 (20.7)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
-"high": "overweight",
-"moderate": "overweight",
-"defensive": "neutral",
+"defensive": "overweight",
+"moderate": "neutral",
+"high": "underweight",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
 "transition": {
-"from": "expansion",
-"to": "slowdown",
-"progress": 25,
+"from": "slowdown",
+"to": "contraction",
+"progress": 33,
 "triggered": [
-"term_spread_flattening"
+"gold_surging"
 ],
 "pending": [
-"hy_spread_widening",
-"bei_overheating",
-"vix_rising"
+"vix_spiking",
+"term_spread_inverted"
 ]
 },
 "quadrant": {
@@ -84,15 +84,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:44.033962+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-30T23:18:00.362395+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-07-30",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-29",
+"asOf": "2026-07-31",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-30",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -114,11 +114,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-07-28",
-"value": 2.84,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-27",
-"previousValue": 2.81,
-"change": 0.029999999999999805,
+"date": "2026-07-29",
+"value": 2.87,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-28",
+"previousValue": 2.84,
+"change": 0.03000000000000025,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -146,9 +146,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
+"date": "2026-07-28",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-26",
+"previousDate": "2026-07-27",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -274,11 +274,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-07-29",
-"value": 1446.7,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-28",
-"previousValue": 1462.5,
-"change": -15.799999999999955,
+"date": "2026-07-30",
+"value": 1437.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-29",
+"previousValue": 1446.7,
+"change": -9.299999999999955,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -591,8 +591,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-28",
-"value": 2.84,
+"date": "2026-07-29",
+"value": 2.87,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -600,7 +600,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
+"date": "2026-07-28",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -636,8 +636,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-29",
-"value": 1446.7,
+"date": "2026-07-30",
+"value": 1437.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -665,10 +665,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-07-30",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-29",
+"asOf": "2026-07-31",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-30",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-30"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-31"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -684,10 +684,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.84,
+"value": 2.87,
 "unit": "%p",
 "signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.029999999999999805,
+"change": 0.03000000000000025,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -729,10 +729,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1446.7,
+"value": 1437.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -15.799999999999955,
+"change": -9.299999999999955,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -743,7 +743,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-28",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-29",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -751,7 +751,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-28",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -783,7 +783,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-29",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-30",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -915,69 +915,69 @@
 "sectorTailwind": {
 "automotive": {
 "kr": 0.4,
-"us": 0.5,
-"blended": 0.44
+"us": -0.3,
+"blended": 0.12
 },
 "biotech": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.1,
-"blended": 0.04
+"us": 0.2,
+"blended": 0.08
 },
 "chemicals": {
 "kr": 0.3,
-"us": 0.2,
-"blended": 0.26
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": 0.1
 },
 "construction": {
 "kr": 0.5,
-"us": 0.3,
-"blended": 0.42
+"us": -0.4,
+"blended": 0.14
 },
 "display": {
 "kr": 0.3,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.34
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": 0.1
 },
 "energy": {
 "kr": 0.3,
-"us": 0.0,
-"blended": 0.18
+"us": 0.1,
+"blended": 0.22
 },
 "finance": {
 "kr": 0.4,
-"us": 0.3,
-"blended": 0.36
+"us": -0.1,
+"blended": 0.2
 },
 "it_software": {
 "kr": 0.4,
-"us": 0.5,
-"blended": 0.44
+"us": 0.1,
+"blended": 0.28
 },
 "retail": {
 "kr": 0.3,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.34
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": 0.1
 },
 "semiconductor": {
 "kr": 0.5,
-"us": 0.6,
-"blended": 0.54
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": 0.22
 },
 "shipbuilding": {
 "kr": 0.3,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.34
+"us": -0.1,
+"blended": 0.14
 },
 "steel": {
 "kr": 0.4,
-"us": 0.2,
-"blended": 0.32
+"us": -0.3,
+"blended": 0.12
 }
 },
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:49.915761+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-30T23:18:06.334644+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1019,19 +1019,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:50.174058+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-30T23:18:06.603324+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1434,
+"probability": 0.1406,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "low",
 "zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.84,
+"spread": 0.86,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-07-29",
+"asOf": "2026-07-30",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1047,7 +1047,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6231498.53,
+"level": 6231444.51,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1064,10 +1064,10 @@
 "horizon": "동행",
 "staleAfterDays": 120,
 "revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상",
-"asOf": "2026-01-01",
+"asOf": "2026-04-01",
 "seriesId": "A191RL1Q225SBEA",
 "seriesSource": "FRED",
-"separation": 0.085,
+"separation": 0.087,
 "contractionProb": null,
 "converged": true,
 "status": "레짐 분리 약함"
@@ -1076,12 +1076,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.84,
+"spread10y3m": 0.86,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-07-29",
+"asOf": "2026-07-30",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
@@ -1107,7 +1107,7 @@
 "regimeBand": {
 "status": "레짐 분리 약함",
 "converged": true,
-"separation": 0.085
+"separation": 0.087
 }
 }
 }