갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-07-25",
+"asOf": "2026-07-26",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": "recovery",
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-24T23:08:51.002524+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-25T22:59:38.801296+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -84,12 +84,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-24T23:08:51.113704+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-25T22:59:38.913175+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
+"target": "KR:market",
+"stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-07-24",
+"asOf": "2026-07-26",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-24",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -113,11 +116,15 @@
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "date": "2026-07-23",
 "value": 2.77,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-22",
+"previousValue": 2.68,
+"change": 0.08999999999999986,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -139,13 +146,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-07-22",
+"date": "2026-07-23",
 "value": 2.75,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-22",
+"previousValue": 2.75,
+"change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "flat"
 },
 {
 "id": "CPI",
@@ -169,11 +180,15 @@
 "sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
 "date": "2026-06-01",
 "value": 119.99,
+"previousDate": "2026-05-01",
+"previousValue": 119.92,
+"change": 0.06999999999999318,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
@@ -197,11 +212,15 @@
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "date": "2026-07-20",
 "value": 84.38,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-17",
+"previousValue": 83.43,
+"change": 0.9499999999999886,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -225,11 +244,15 @@
 "sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
 "date": "2026-05-01",
 "value": 94342.2,
+"previousDate": "2026-04-01",
+"previousValue": 90586.8,
+"change": 3755.399999999994,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
@@ -253,11 +276,15 @@
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
 "date": "2026-07-24",
 "value": 1466.6,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-23",
+"previousValue": 1466.8,
+"change": -0.20000000000004547,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
-}
+},
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -296,7 +323,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:sectorPrior:fx-export"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "twoSided",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "export-demand-revenue",
@@ -334,7 +367,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:observed:export-demand"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "rate-debt-interest",
@@ -369,7 +408,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:template:rate-debt"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-debt-interest"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-debt-interest",
+"driverSignal": "flat",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "rate-bank-margin",
@@ -404,7 +449,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:sectorPrior:bank-rate"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-bank-margin"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-bank-margin",
+"driverSignal": "flat",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "hy-risk-premium",
@@ -439,7 +490,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:observed:credit-spread"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "oil-margin-cost",
@@ -479,7 +536,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:sectorPrior:oil-margin"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "twoSided",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 },
 {
 "id": "cpi-utility-tariff",
@@ -514,7 +577,13 @@
 "macro.transmission:template:cpi-margin"
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
-"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:cpi-utility-tariff"
+"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:cpi-utility-tariff",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "twoSided",
+"resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
+"companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
+"matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
+"companyEvidence": []
 }
 ],
 "regimeEvidence": [
@@ -531,7 +600,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-22",
+"date": "2026-07-23",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -585,6 +654,262 @@
 "macro/{ecos,fred}/observations.parquet"
 ],
 "missing": [],
+"contextGaps": [],
+"product": {
+"schemaVersion": 1,
+"identity": {
+"target": "KR:market",
+"market": "KR",
+"engine": "macro",
+"axis": "전파",
+"version": "1"
+},
+"time": {
+"asOf": "2026-07-26",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-24",
+"period": null,
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-26"
+},
+"status": "partial",
+"conclusion": {
+"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
+"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+},
+"confidence": {
+"level": "medium",
+"score": 60.0,
+"method": "macroObservationAndCompanyEvidenceCoverage"
+},
+"drivers": [
+{
+"id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
+"label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
+"value": 2.77,
+"unit": "%p",
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.08999999999999986,
+"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
+},
+{
+"id": "BASE_RATE",
+"label": "한국 기준금리",
+"value": 2.75,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "flat",
+"change": 0.0,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
+},
+{
+"id": "CPI",
+"label": "소비자물가 YoY",
+"value": 119.99,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.06999999999999318,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
+},
+{
+"id": "DCOILWTICO",
+"label": "WTI",
+"value": 84.38,
+"unit": "$",
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.9499999999999886,
+"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
+},
+{
+"id": "EXPORT",
+"label": "수출 YoY",
+"value": 94342.2,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 3755.399999999994,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
+},
+{
+"id": "USDKRW",
+"label": "원/달러",
+"value": 1466.6,
+"unit": "원",
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.20000000000004547,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
+}
+],
+"claims": [],
+"evidence": [
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.BAMLH0A0HYM2",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-23",
+"detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.BASE_RATE",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-23",
+"detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.CPI",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-06-01",
+"detail": "소비자물가 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.DCOILWTICO",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-20",
+"detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.EXPORT",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-05-01",
+"detail": "수출 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.USDKRW",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-24",
+"detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+}
+],
+"assumptions": [
+{
+"id": "edgeSign",
+"value": "registryPrior",
+"reason": "경로 부호와 시차는 기업별 회귀계수가 아니라 registry prior입니다."
+}
+],
+"gaps": [
+{
+"id": "macro.companyBinding",
+"status": "partial",
+"reason": "시장 또는 섹터 경로이며 개별 회사 재무 근거에 바인딩되지 않았습니다.",
+"sourceRef": "dartlab://company/macro/transmission"
+}
+],
+"scenarios": [
+{
+"id": "fx-export-revenue",
+"driverId": "USDKRW",
+"condition": "USDKRW 방향이 반전될 때 매출 성장률 / 환산손익 경로 재평가",
+"lagMonths": [
+0,
+3
+]
+},
+{
+"id": "export-demand-revenue",
+"driverId": "EXPORT",
+"condition": "EXPORT 방향이 반전될 때 매출 성장률 / 가동률 경로 재평가",
+"lagMonths": [
+1,
+6
+]
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-debt-interest",
+"driverId": "BASE_RATE",
+"condition": "BASE_RATE 방향이 반전될 때 이자비용 / 차입 재조달 경로 재평가",
+"lagMonths": [
+3,
+12
+]
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-bank-margin",
+"driverId": "BASE_RATE",
+"condition": "BASE_RATE 방향이 반전될 때 순이자마진 / 조달비용 경로 재평가",
+"lagMonths": [
+1,
+6
+]
+},
+{
+"id": "hy-risk-premium",
+"driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
+"condition": "BAMLH0A0HYM2 방향이 반전될 때 신용스프레드 / 위험프리미엄 경로 재평가",
+"lagMonths": [
+0,
+3
+]
+}
+],
+"falsifiers": [
+{
+"id": "fx-export-revenue.0",
+"condition": "달러 원가 비중이 해외 매출 효과를 상쇄"
+},
+{
+"id": "fx-export-revenue.1",
+"condition": "헤지 정책으로 환산 민감도 약화"
+},
+{
+"id": "export-demand-revenue.0",
+"condition": "내수 매출 중심"
+},
+{
+"id": "export-demand-revenue.1",
+"condition": "재고 과잉으로 출하 증가가 매출로 이어지지 않음"
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-debt-interest.0",
+"condition": "순현금 기업"
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-debt-interest.1",
+"condition": "고정금리 장기차입 중심"
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-debt-interest.2",
+"condition": "이자수익이 비용을 상쇄"
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-bank-margin.0",
+"condition": "조달비용이 대출금리보다 빠르게 상승"
+},
+{
+"id": "rate-bank-margin.1",
+"condition": "대손비용 증가가 NIM 개선을 상쇄"
+},
+{
+"id": "hy-risk-premium.0",
+"condition": "무차입 또는 충분한 현금"
+},
+{
+"id": "hy-risk-premium.1",
+"condition": "방어적 현금흐름"
+},
+{
+"id": "hy-risk-premium.2",
+"condition": "정부/모회사 지원 가능성"
+}
+],
+"payload": {
+"blockRefs": [
+"drivers",
+"edges",
+"regimeEvidence"
+],
+"companyBound": false,
+"companyEdgeCount": 0,
+"edgeCount": 7
+}
+},
 "version": "v1"
 },
 "sectorTailwind": {
@@ -652,7 +977,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-24T23:08:56.969221+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-25T22:59:42.877155+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -694,7 +1019,7 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-24T23:08:57.028727+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-25T22:59:42.936531+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
@@ -722,7 +1047,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6231485.34,
+"level": 6231490.14,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",