--- pretty_name: African Public Debt Management license: cc-by-4.0 task_categories: - tabular-classification - tabular-regression tags: - governance - public-debt - fiscal-policy - sub-saharan-africa - synthetic - lmic - debt-sustainability - macroeconomics - development-economics - debt-management - africa - imf - world-bank size_categories: - 10K ⚠️ **Synthetic dataset** — Parameterized from published SSA literature, not real observations. Not suitable for empirical analysis or policy inference. # African Public Debt Management Dataset ## Overview This dataset provides synthetic public debt management indicators for **12 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries** across **3 policy scenarios** (baseline, debt consolidation, debt distress), totaling **29,988 records** with **19 variables** per record. The data is parameterized from published indicators and stylized facts reported by the **IMF**, **World Bank**, **AfDB**, and **UNCTAD**, capturing realistic distributions of debt-to-GDP ratios, debt composition, debt service burdens, concessional financing shares, and macroeconomic fundamentals. ## Countries | Country | Region | Debt Profile | |---------|--------|-------------| | Nigeria | West Africa | Moderate debt/GDP (~40-55%), high service-to-revenue, Eurobond-dependent | | Kenya | East Africa | Elevated debt/GDP (~67%), refinancing pressure, infrastructure-driven | | Ghana | West Africa | Post-restructuring (~44%), IMF program, was in debt distress (>80%) | | South Africa | Southern Africa | High debt/GDP (~78%), predominantly domestic, SOE risks | | DRC | Central Africa | Low debt/GDP (~24%), heavily concessional, IDA-eligible | | Ethiopia | East Africa | Low-moderate (~28%), restructuring under G20 Common Framework | | Tanzania | East Africa | Moderate (~46%), concessional-heavy, fiscal discipline | | Rwanda | East Africa | Rising rapidly (~85%), concessional-heavy, ambitious spending | | Mozambique | Southern Africa | Very high (~97%), debt distress, hidden debt legacy | | Zambia | Southern Africa | Post-restructuring (~70%), was in debt distress | | Senegal | West Africa | Rising (~65%), oil/gas transition, infrastructure investment | | Côte d'Ivoire | West Africa | Moderate (~56%), infrastructure-driven, first IDA Eurobond issuer | ## Scenarios ### Baseline Current trajectory reflecting prevailing fiscal policies, debt composition, and macroeconomic conditions. Debt-to-GDP ratios average ~58%, with debt service consuming ~25-30% of revenue. Years: 2018–2025. ### Debt Consolidation Favorable policy path: fiscal tightening, extended maturities, increased concessional borrowing, lower interest rates, stronger growth. Debt-to-GDP falls ~15%, debt service ratio drops ~25%. Years: 2022–2030. ### Debt Distress Adverse scenario: rising debt stocks, refinancing difficulties, loss of concessional access, higher interest rates, weaker growth, rising inflation. Debt-to-GDP rises ~25%, debt service ratio increases ~50%. Years: 2020–2028. ## Variable Descriptions ### Core Debt Indicators - **debt_to_gdp_pct**: Total government debt as percentage of GDP. World Bank/IMF threshold of 55% used for low-income countries; many SSA countries exceed this. - **external_debt_pct**: Share of total public debt owed to external creditors (multilateral, bilateral, private). SSA average ~42% of total debt stock. - **domestic_debt_pct**: Share held by domestic creditors (banks, pension funds, central bank). Complement of external_debt_pct. - **debt_service_ratio_pct**: Total debt service (principal + interest) as percentage of government revenue. SSA median ~18.7% for external debt service alone (UNCTAD 2024); many countries exceed 30%. ### Debt Composition & Terms - **concessional_debt_pct**: Share of external debt on concessional terms (below-market interest, long grace periods). IDA-eligible countries typically >50%; market-accessing countries <30%. - **average_maturity_years**: Weighted average remaining maturity. Shorter maturity = higher rollover risk. Concessional loans: 15-30 years; Eurobonds: 5-10 years. - **average_interest_rate_pct**: Weighted average effective rate. Concessional: 0.5-2%; commercial: 5-10%; Eurobonds: 6-12%. ### Risk & Sustainability - **debt_sustainability_rating**: Composite rating 1-5 based on debt-to-GDP, debt service ratio, concessionality, and interest rates. 1=low risk, 3=moderate risk, 5=debt distress. Based on IMF-World Bank DSF methodology. - **refinancing_risk_score**: Score 0-100 capturing rollover risk from maturity structure, debt level, and concessionality. - **fiscal_space_score**: Score 0-100 capturing room for counter-cyclical spending based on primary balance, debt level, revenue mobilization, and debt service burden. ### Fiscal & Macro - **primary_balance_pct**: Fiscal balance excluding interest payments (% of GDP). Negative = deficit. - **gdp_growth_pct**: Real GDP growth. SSA average ~3.5-4% pre-COVID, recovering post-2020. - **inflation_pct**: Consumer price inflation. Varies widely: 3-5% (WAEMU) to 20%+ (Ethiopia, Ghana). - **reserves_months_imports**: Foreign exchange reserves in months of import cover. <3 months = vulnerability threshold. - **revenue_to_gdp_pct**: Government revenue/GDP. SSA average ~16%, well below OECD ~34%. Critical constraint. - **expenditure_to_gdp_pct**: Government expenditure/GDP. ## Data Sources & Parameterization Parameters derived from: 1. **IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa** (April 2025) — median debt-to-GDP <60%, debt stabilization trends 2. **World Bank International Debt Report 2025** — LMIC external debt stocks, service ratios, creditor composition 3. **AfDB "State of Play of Debt Burden in Africa 2024"** — debt sustainability assessments, liquidity indicators 4. **UNCTAD external debt sustainability data** — SSA debt service at 18.7% of revenue (3× 2014 levels) 5. **ONE Data "African Debt"** (Feb 2025) — 21 low-income African countries in/at risk of debt distress 6. **Debt Service Watch 2024** — SSA spending 55% of revenue on debt service Key stylized facts embedded in parameters: - SSA aggregate debt-to-GDP ~61% (2024), with wide country dispersion (24% DRC to 97% Mozambique) - Debt service consuming 15-55% of government revenue across the region - Commercial debt share rising from 20% to 43% of total since 2000 (AfDB) - 25+ African countries carrying excess debt or high risk (AfDB) - Concessional financing declining as countries access capital markets ## Intended Use - **Debt sustainability analysis** — Train models to predict debt distress risk - **Fiscal policy simulation** — Evaluate consolidation vs. expansionary scenarios - **Macroeconomic forecasting** — Model debt trajectory under different growth/inflation assumptions - **Development finance research** — Study concessional vs. commercial borrowing tradeoffs - **ML benchmarking** — Classification (sustainability rating), regression (debt ratios), scenario analysis ## Limitations - **Synthetic data**: Not a substitute for official national accounts or IMF Article IV data - **Cross-sectional stylization**: Each row is an independent draw, not a time series per country - **No bilateral/multilateral creditor-level detail**: Concessional share is aggregate - **No currency composition**: Exchange rate effects modeled implicitly through scenario shifts - **No domestic debt detail**: Treasury bills, bonds, and central bank financing not disaggregated ## Citation If you use this dataset, please cite: ``` @dataset{african_public_debt_management_2026, title={African Public Debt Management Synthetic Dataset}, author={Electric Sheep Africa}, year={2026}, url={https://huggingface.co/datasets/electricsheepafrica/african-public-debt-management}, license={CC-BY-4.0} } ``` ## License CC BY 4.0 — You may share and adapt with attribution.