File size: 1,511 Bytes
95047f7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
{
  "target": "demand",
  "country_code": "NL",
  "zone_key": "NL",
  "model_name": "lightgbm-quantile",
  "model_version": "20260820180933",
  "feature_names": [
    "hour",
    "quarter",
    "day_of_week",
    "day_of_year",
    "month",
    "is_weekend",
    "is_holiday",
    "is_morning_peak",
    "is_evening_peak",
    "sin_hour",
    "cos_hour",
    "sin_day_of_week",
    "cos_day_of_week",
    "sin_day_of_year",
    "cos_day_of_year",
    "lag_1h",
    "lag_2h",
    "lag_3h",
    "lag_4h",
    "lag_24h",
    "lag_48h",
    "lag_7d",
    "lag_14d",
    "diff_1h",
    "diff_2h",
    "diff_24h",
    "diff_7d",
    "acceleration_1h",
    "ema_4step",
    "ema_12step",
    "rolling_std_4step",
    "rolling_mean_24h",
    "rolling_std_24h",
    "rolling_min_24h",
    "rolling_max_24h",
    "rolling_mean_7d",
    "rolling_std_7d"
  ],
  "n_estimators": 180,
  "learning_rate": 0.04,
  "num_leaves": 31,
  "training_rows": 99380,
  "start_year": 2023,
  "end_year": 2026,
  "metrics": {
    "mae": 228.8369113435931,
    "rmse": 760.6798309337345,
    "wape": 0.016802358270333835,
    "pinball_p10": 147.6788275273391,
    "pinball_p90": 54.65633858613622,
    "interval_coverage": 0.7244405087747545,
    "winkler_score": 2023.3516611347532,
    "mape": 3.8506640888814605
  },
  "baseline_mae": 1655.3946271936886,
  "calibrator": {
    "is_fitted": true,
    "q_correction": -3.0787313982800697,
    "target_coverage": 0.8
  }
}