promote main to v0.9.0 (approved): climate + seismic promoted
Browse files- README.md +114 -229
- SHA256SUMS +6 -6
- benchmark.json +252 -342
- config.json +521 -517
- model.safetensors +2 -2
- release.json +7 -8
- report.json +0 -0
README.md
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an observable departure happens next, calibrated, with an explicit option to
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abstain.**
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[](https://zenodivergent.dev)
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</div>
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| revision | model | corpus | promoted domains | loader |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| **`v0.
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| `v0.
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| `v0.
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**Read this before picking a revision.** v0.7.0 promotes **fewer** domains than
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v0.6.0 — two instead of three — because the gate got harder, not because the
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model got worse. From v0.7.0 onward a domain cannot be promoted unless it
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**beats a plain logistic regression fitted on the same features**, with a
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bootstrap CI excluding zero, and unless **no head sits within 0.005 AUROC of
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chance**. Under v0.6.0's rules none of its promoted domains passed that bar.
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Under v0.7.0's rules, hydrology and climate do — that is the headline.
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Markets promoted in v0.6.0 and does not in v0.7.0: it never beat the logistic
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baseline, and now that is disqualifying. Seismic and space weather still have
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collapsed rare-event heads; if you need those domains, pin `v0.5.0`.
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`main` now serves the **v0.7.0** multi-domain weights, so the repository
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metadata reflects the real model (1,874,220 params) rather than the 30,859-param
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v0.3.1 seismic checkpoint it used to carry. The `transformers`-native custom
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pipeline stays available at revision `v0.3.1`. Revisions are immutable: nothing
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published is ever overwritten in place.
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**v0.7.0 closed the gap it was built for.** It adds per-target loss
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normalisation, bounded heteroscedastic attenuation, raised rare-event class
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weighting, a collapse guard, exclusion of targets with fewer than 25 test
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positives, and a hard gate requiring a win over the logistic baseline. Two
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domains now clear that bar. Six do not, and each one is published with its
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blocking reason attached.
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---
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> uncertainty or rule baselines alone — and that representation is **shared
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> across domains**.
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The harness is built to *reject* that claim.
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real and the lifts hold.
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---
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1. **Declare a schema.** Categories, numeric channels, targets, horizon. The
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schema is a contract, not a guess — it is hashed into the config.
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2. **Build past-only features.** Row `i` is a
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3. **Adapt, then share.** A small per-domain adapter maps each schema into one
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**shared** dilated causal trunk. 1,
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are shared across all
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4. **Encode the surprise state `z^S`.** A representation of *how* expectation is
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failing, common to every head.
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5. **Predict observable departures.** One head per target:
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6. **Calibrate, then gate.** Probabilities are fitted on a held-out
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split; low-evidence rows are marked `abstained` rather than scored.
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### What comes back
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## Results
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Held-out chronological test split with a horizon buffer, entity-level bootstrap
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CIs,
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### v0.
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**Promoted
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| domain | corpus | entities | rows |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| **Climate** | NOAA GHCN-Daily |
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never trained on:
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| corpus | entities | rows | best target | AUROC |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| `Salesforce/lotsa_data` | 240 | 337,140 | regime transition | ~0.92 |
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| `Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain` | 240 | 338,832 | `regime_transition` | 0.786 |
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Several proxy targets on both external corpora sit at 0.5 — the shared
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representation transfers for transition detection and not, so far, for the
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magnitude-shift proxies.
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### v0.6.0 — previous revision
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**Promoted (cleared the pre-declared gate)**
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| domain | corpus | entities | rows | best target | AUROC (95% CI) | ECE | abstention gain |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| **Climate** | NOAA GHCN-Daily | 182 | 739,220 | `heat_extreme_ahead` | **0.883** [0.860, 0.903] | 0.011 | +0.045 @ 0.77 coverage |
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| **Hydrology** | USGS daily water services | 320 | 419,840 | `flow_regime_transition` | **0.770** [0.757, 0.782] | 0.015 | +0.021 @ 0.79 coverage |
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| **Markets** | Coinbase public market data | 357 | 258,570 | `dislocation_ahead` | **0.691** [0.672, 0.712] | 0.092 | +0.034 @ 0.89 coverage |
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**Not promoted — published with the blocking reason, not hidden**
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| domain | entities | best AUROC | why it did not promote |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- |
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**
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| **Seismic** | USGS FDSN events | 224 | 44,470 | `significant_event_ahead` | **0.911** [0.878, 0.933] | 0.071 | +0.092 @ 0.69 coverage |
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| **Space weather** | GFZ Potsdam Kp/ap/F10.7 | 293 | 63,224 | `activity_transition` | **0.823** [0.804, 0.839] | 0.044 | +0.091 @ 0.51 coverage |
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| **Hydrology** | USGS daily water services | 320 | 419,840 | `flow_regime_transition` | **0.781** [0.771, 0.791] | 0.017 | +0.021 @ 0.83 coverage |
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| **Markets** | Coinbase public market data | 357 | 258,570 | `dislocation_ahead` | **0.709** [0.691, 0.731] | 0.084 | +0.037 @ 0.81 coverage |
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### Cross-domain transfer (leave-one-domain-out)
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The trunk and `z^S` are trained on the *other* domains, then frozen; only the
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held-out domain's adapter and heads are fitted. If the shared representation
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were domain-specific bookkeeping, transfer would collapse. It does not — five
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domains (seismic, hydrology, markets, space weather, climate) clear the gate
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under leave-one-domain-out transfer in v0.6.0. That result is **reported, not
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required**: the gate rule is discrimination and calibration on each domain's own
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corpus.
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### The promotion gate
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Declared before the run, applied without discretion:
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```
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real corpus required
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paired lift vs
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leakage tests must pass
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```
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v0.
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**Verdict for v0.7.0: `promoted`** — two real-corpus domains cleared the gate,
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and for the first time both of them beat a logistic regression on the same
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features. Six domains did not clear it and ship as candidates with their
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blocking reasons attached. v0.4.0 is a
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documented gate failure and was never published as a model. Full run report in
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`report.json`, digests in `SHA256SUMS`. If those digests do not match your
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rebuild, you are not looking at the same artifact.
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---
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## Quick start
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**The
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no `trust_remote_code`:
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```bash
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pip install "zeno-divergent>=0.7.0" transformers torch
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```
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```python
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from transformers import AutoModel
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import zeno_divergent # registers config + model with the Auto classes
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model = AutoModel.from_pretrained("mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1")
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model.describe()
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# {'model_version': '0.7.0', 'parameters': 1874220,
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# 'promoted_domains': ['climate', 'hydrology'], 'steps': 12, ...}
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events = [
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{"timestamp": 1717171717.0,
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"category": "elevated_flow",
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"values": {"discharge_cfs": 812.0,
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"abs_daily_change_cfs": 41.0,
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"rise_ratio": 1.2}},
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# ... chronological, one entity
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]
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rows = model.score_events(events, domain="hydrology", entity_id="usgs-01646500")
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last = rows[-1]
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last.probabilities # calibrated, one per declared target
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last.uncertainty, last.risk, last.abstained
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last.promoted # False => this domain did not clear the release gate
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```
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Discover a domain's contract instead of hardcoding it:
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```python
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info["schema"]["categories"], info["schema"]["channels"], info["targets"]
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info["promoted"], info["blocking_reasons"], info["abstention_threshold"]
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model.
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#
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```
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Python score and an in-browser score of the same window agree to ~1e-7.
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Six of the eight domains did not clear the v0.7.0 gate. They still carry weights
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and still return numbers, but every row comes back `promoted=False`. Do not
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present those as validated results; for seismic or space weather, pin
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`revision="v0.5.0"`.
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Older APIs stay pinned and unchanged: `revision="v0.3.1"` for the single-domain
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`transformers` pipeline, `revision="v0.2.3"` for the frozen synthetic prototype.
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No GPU, no network calls at inference time.
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---
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| --- | --- |
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| architecture | per-domain input adapters → shared dilated causal trunk → shared surprise latent `z^S` → per-domain calibrated heads |
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| parameters | **1,
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| precision | float32, safetensors |
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| runtime | CPU, sub-millisecond per row |
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<details>
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<summary><b>Why did the parameter count move around across versions?</b></summary>
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Capacity is set by what the corpus supports, not by what looks impressive.
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v0.2.x was a wide multi-reference encoder over a *synthetic* ten-mechanism
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generator (large, but fitted to a simulator). v0.3 replaced it with a
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domain-neutral schema contract over one real corpus, and capacity dropped to
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~31k accordingly. v0.5.0 trains one shared trunk across eight real schemas at
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once, so capacity is back up to 1.68M, and v0.6.0 to 1.87M with the multi-scale
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feature set — this time earned by real data breadth, not by a generator. Nothing
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was ever pruned or quantised; every version stays loadable at its own revision.
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</details>
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---
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## Training data
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| domain | source |
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| --- | --- |
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| seismic | USGS FDSN event web service |
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| hydrology | USGS Water Services daily values |
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| markets | Coinbase Exchange public market data API |
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| spaceweather |
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| climate | NOAA GHCN-Daily station access files |
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| macro | FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
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| wildfire | NASA FIRMS active fire detections (VIIRS) |
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| chaos | in-repo Lorenz-96 / Kuramoto integrator (deterministic control) |
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Splits are chronological with a horizon buffer
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---
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## Limits
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- **Two domains are promoted in v0.
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- Seismic
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into "not at risk" — that is a misuse.
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- The model predicts *observable* transitions in a public descriptive stream. It
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makes no claim about identity, intent, ownership or causation.
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- `main` serves v0.7.0. Pin `revision="v0.5.0"` for seismic and space weather,
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or `revision="v0.3.1"` for the `transformers`-native single-domain pipeline.
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---
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## Citation
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```bibtex
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@software{
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title = {Zeno Divergent: a shared representation of model-relative surprise},
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author = {Barbosa, M.},
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year = {2026},
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url = {https://huggingface.co/mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1},
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version = {v0.
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}
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```
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an observable departure happens next, calibrated, with an explicit option to
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abstain.**
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+
[](https://huggingface.co/mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1/tree/v0.9.0)
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+
[](https://huggingface.co/mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1/tree/v0.9.0)
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[](#architecture)
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[](#results)
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[](#the-promotion-gate)
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[](https://zenodivergent.dev)
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</div>
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| revision | model | corpus | promoted domains | loader |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| **`main` / `v0.9.0`** | multi-domain, 1,877,849 params — **latest and recommended** | 8 real corpora + synthetic control | **climate, seismic** | explicit revision (safetensors + config) |
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| `v0.7.0` | multi-domain, 1,874,220 params | 8 real corpora | hydrology, climate | explicit revision (safetensors + config) |
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| `v0.6.0` | multi-domain, 1,874,220 params | 8 real corpora | hydrology, markets, climate — with named seismic/spaceweather regressions | explicit revision |
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| `v0.5.0` | multi-domain, 1,677,870 params | 8 real corpora | seismic, hydrology, markets, spaceweather | explicit revision |
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| `v0.3.1` | single-domain, 30,859 params | seismic only | seismic | `transformers`-native, `trust_remote_code=False` |
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**v0.9.0 is the first release where promoted domains beat a frozen logistic
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regression on the same features.** It adds focal rare-event training, per-entity
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resampling, held-out affine/PAVA calibration, a declared abstention operating
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point, availability-aware (`available_at`) leakage-safe splits, and a paired
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promotion gate that refuses any domain that does not beat the reference
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baseline with a bootstrap interval excluding zero.
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+
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Six of eight real domains did **not** clear that gate and ship as labelled
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candidates. That is the gate working, not the release failing: the numbers are
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published so they can be checked.
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+
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Revisions are immutable: nothing published is ever overwritten in place.
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---
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> uncertainty or rule baselines alone — and that representation is **shared
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> across domains**.
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The harness is built to *reject* that claim. v0.9.0 is the first release where
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any domain survives the full test — climate and seismic. Everywhere else the
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| 84 |
+
harness still says no, and the site says so.
|
|
|
|
| 85 |
|
| 86 |
---
|
| 87 |
|
|
|
|
| 103 |
|
| 104 |
1. **Declare a schema.** Categories, numeric channels, targets, horizon. The
|
| 105 |
schema is a contract, not a guess — it is hashed into the config.
|
| 106 |
+
2. **Build past-only features with availability timestamps.** Row `i` is a
|
| 107 |
+
function of observations `0..i` *as they were available at the time* —
|
| 108 |
+
leakage is re-derived from the raw stream, not asserted.
|
| 109 |
3. **Adapt, then share.** A small per-domain adapter maps each schema into one
|
| 110 |
+
**shared** dilated causal trunk. 1,351,209 of the 1,877,849 parameters (72%)
|
| 111 |
+
are shared across all domains — that sharing is the claim under test.
|
| 112 |
4. **Encode the surprise state `z^S`.** A representation of *how* expectation is
|
| 113 |
failing, common to every head.
|
| 114 |
+
5. **Predict observable departures.** One head per target: regime transitions,
|
| 115 |
+
cadence shifts, extreme events, compound stress.
|
| 116 |
+
6. **Calibrate, then gate.** Probabilities are fitted on a held-out calibration
|
| 117 |
split; low-evidence rows are marked `abstained` rather than scored.
|
| 118 |
|
| 119 |
### What comes back
|
|
|
|
| 131 |
## Results
|
| 132 |
|
| 133 |
Held-out chronological test split with a horizon buffer, entity-level bootstrap
|
| 134 |
+
CIs, availability-aware leakage tests.
|
| 135 |
|
| 136 |
+
### v0.9.0 — latest and recommended
|
| 137 |
|
| 138 |
+
**Promoted (cleared the pre-declared gate: beat the frozen logistic baseline,
|
| 139 |
+
calibrated, selective-accuracy gain under abstention)**
|
| 140 |
|
| 141 |
+
| domain | corpus | entities | rows | target | AUROC (95% CI) | ECE | lift vs baseline |
|
| 142 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
| 143 |
+
| **Climate** | NOAA GHCN-Daily | 182 | 731,497 | `cold_extreme_ahead` | **0.890** [0.868, 0.909] | 0.002 | **+0.088** |
|
| 144 |
+
| | | | | `heat_extreme_ahead` | 0.855 | 0.022 | −0.008 |
|
| 145 |
+
| | | | | `compound_climate_stress` | 0.829 | 0.008 | +0.003 |
|
| 146 |
+
| | | | | `weather_regime_transition` | 0.824 | 0.008 | +0.007 |
|
| 147 |
+
| | | | | `anomaly_regime_shift` | 0.783 | 0.013 | −0.004 |
|
| 148 |
+
| **Seismic** | USGS FDSN + QuakePulse Earth | 397 | 116,768 | `significant_event_ahead` | **0.948** | 0.028 | +0.005 |
|
| 149 |
+
| | | | | `compound_seismic_stress` | 0.911 | 0.028 | +0.017 |
|
| 150 |
+
| | | | | `event_regime_transition` | 0.901 | 0.013 | +0.009 |
|
| 151 |
+
| | | | | `cadence_shift` | 0.710 | 0.088 | −0.015 |
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
**The honest headline:** only `cold_extreme_ahead` (+0.088) is a decisive win
|
| 154 |
+
over the frozen uncertainty baseline. The seismic heads post the strongest raw
|
| 155 |
+
AUROCs (0.90–0.95) and recovered the head that collapsed in v0.8.0, but their
|
| 156 |
+
lift over the baseline is small. Climate coverage is 79% with a selective-accuracy
|
| 157 |
+
gain under abstention; seismic coverage is 60% — the model abstains on two of
|
| 158 |
+
five situations rather than guess.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| 159 |
|
| 160 |
**Not promoted — published with the blocking reason, not hidden**
|
| 161 |
|
| 162 |
| domain | entities | best AUROC | why it did not promote |
|
| 163 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
| 164 |
+
| Hydrology (USGS Water) | 320 | 0.802 | good discrimination, **negative lift** vs the logistic baseline (−0.025) |
|
| 165 |
+
| Markets (Coinbase) | 357 | 0.682 | best head lifts +0.078 but AUROC stays under the floor |
|
| 166 |
+
| Space weather (NOAA SWPC) | 300 | 0.732 | negative lift across heads (−0.053 best) |
|
| 167 |
+
| Macro (FRED, 198 series) | 198 | 0.829 | no lift over the baseline (−0.002) |
|
| 168 |
+
| On-chain (Celo) | 240 | 0.829 | small positive lift, thin test set |
|
| 169 |
+
| Wildfire (NASA FIRMS + AntiFogo) | 528 | 0.754 | marginal lift (+0.005); AntiFogo history is still accumulating |
|
| 170 |
+
| Chaos (synthetic control) | 240 | ~1.0 | **synthetic corpus.** Proves the pipeline runs. Never evidence about real data. |
|
| 171 |
+
|
| 172 |
+
### Cross-domain and external transfer
|
| 173 |
+
|
| 174 |
+
Leave-one-domain-out: seismic clears the gate trained on the other seven
|
| 175 |
+
domains — the shared representation is not domain-specific bookkeeping. External
|
| 176 |
+
frozen-trunk transfer is reported on LOTSA, GiftEval and the four partner
|
| 177 |
+
corpora (air quality, agriculture, marine, urban) — **reported, never
|
| 178 |
+
required**: an external corpus cannot qualify a release.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 179 |
|
| 180 |
### The promotion gate
|
| 181 |
|
| 182 |
Declared before the run, applied without discretion:
|
| 183 |
|
| 184 |
```
|
| 185 |
+
real corpus required · ≥ 2 targets significant vs phase-0 rules
|
| 186 |
+
paired lift vs logistic baseline > 0 · bootstrap CI on the lift excludes zero
|
| 187 |
+
worst-target ECE ≤ 0.10 · declared abstention operating point
|
| 188 |
+
≥ 100 entities · leakage tests must pass
|
| 189 |
+
≥ 2 real-corpus domains must clear, or nothing ships as promoted
|
| 190 |
```
|
| 191 |
|
| 192 |
+
**Verdict for v0.9.0: `promoted`** — two of eight real domains cleared, six are
|
| 193 |
+
published as refused candidates. Full run report in `report.json`, digests in
|
| 194 |
+
`SHA256SUMS`. If those digests do not match your rebuild, you are not looking at
|
| 195 |
+
the same artifact.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 196 |
|
| 197 |
---
|
| 198 |
|
| 199 |
## Quick start
|
| 200 |
|
| 201 |
+
**The multi-domain model** — `main` serves v0.9.0:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 202 |
|
| 203 |
```python
|
| 204 |
+
from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 205 |
|
| 206 |
+
path = snapshot_download("mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1", revision="v0.9.0")
|
| 207 |
+
# path/model.safetensors + path/config.json — per-domain adapters, shared trunk,
|
| 208 |
+
# per-target calibrated heads. Promoted domains: climate, seismic.
|
| 209 |
+
# Other domains remain loadable at the last revision that promoted them.
|
| 210 |
```
|
| 211 |
|
| 212 |
+
Score your own stream in the browser — no install, no upload leaves your machine:
|
| 213 |
+
[zenodivergent.dev/app](https://zenodivergent.dev/app) runs the promoted v0.9.0
|
| 214 |
+
ONNX graphs for climate and seismic (v0.7.0 heads elsewhere, because the export
|
| 215 |
+
is gated by the same run report).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 216 |
|
| 217 |
---
|
| 218 |
|
|
|
|
| 221 |
| | |
|
| 222 |
| --- | --- |
|
| 223 |
| architecture | per-domain input adapters → shared dilated causal trunk → shared surprise latent `z^S` → per-domain calibrated heads |
|
| 224 |
+
| parameters | **1,877,849** total, **1,351,209 shared** (72%) across domains |
|
| 225 |
+
| features | multi-scale windows + calendar/context features, robust median/IQR normalisation, availability-aware (`available_at`) splits |
|
| 226 |
+
| training | 12 epochs, single NVIDIA L4; focal loss + per-entity resampling on rare targets; held-out affine/PAVA calibration |
|
| 227 |
+
| auxiliary objectives | counter-expectation head, domain-adversarial head, contrastive surprise objective, residual-vs-baseline objective |
|
| 228 |
+
| precision | float32, safetensors; promoted domains also exported to ONNX |
|
|
|
|
| 229 |
| runtime | CPU, sub-millisecond per row |
|
| 230 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 231 |
---
|
| 232 |
|
| 233 |
## Training data
|
|
|
|
| 237 |
|
| 238 |
| domain | source |
|
| 239 |
| --- | --- |
|
| 240 |
+
| seismic | USGS FDSN event web service + QuakePulse Earth corpus |
|
| 241 |
| hydrology | USGS Water Services daily values |
|
| 242 |
| markets | Coinbase Exchange public market data API |
|
| 243 |
+
| spaceweather | NOAA SWPC indices |
|
| 244 |
| climate | NOAA GHCN-Daily station access files |
|
| 245 |
+
| macro | FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), 198 series |
|
| 246 |
+
| wildfire | NASA FIRMS active fire detections (VIIRS) + AntiFogo (antifogo.pt) mainland-Portugal corpus |
|
| 247 |
+
| on-chain | Celo public chain activity |
|
| 248 |
| chaos | in-repo Lorenz-96 / Kuramoto integrator (deterministic control) |
|
| 249 |
|
| 250 |
+
Splits are chronological with a horizon buffer, keyed on `available_at`
|
| 251 |
+
(publication time), not event time.
|
| 252 |
|
| 253 |
---
|
| 254 |
|
|
|
|
| 273 |
|
| 274 |
## Limits
|
| 275 |
|
| 276 |
+
- **Two domains are promoted in v0.9.0, not eight.** The other six are published
|
| 277 |
+
as candidates with their blocking reasons.
|
| 278 |
+
- **Most promoted heads beat chance, not the baseline.** Only
|
| 279 |
+
`cold_extreme_ahead` is a decisive lift win (+0.088). Treat the rest as
|
| 280 |
+
calibrated monitors, not oracles.
|
| 281 |
+
- Seismic coverage is 60%: the model abstains on a large share of situations.
|
| 282 |
+
That refusal is the product — hiding it turns "not observed" into "not at
|
| 283 |
+
risk".
|
| 284 |
+
- Probabilities are calibrated on the held-out calibration split; recalibrate
|
| 285 |
+
before using them as decision thresholds in a new deployment.
|
| 286 |
+
- The wildfire corpus depends on AntiFogo history that is still accumulating;
|
| 287 |
+
the wildfire gate cannot move until it does.
|
|
|
|
| 288 |
- The model predicts *observable* transitions in a public descriptive stream. It
|
| 289 |
makes no claim about identity, intent, ownership or causation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 290 |
|
| 291 |
---
|
| 292 |
|
| 293 |
## Citation
|
| 294 |
|
| 295 |
```bibtex
|
| 296 |
+
@software{zeno_divergent_0_9_0,
|
| 297 |
title = {Zeno Divergent: a shared representation of model-relative surprise},
|
| 298 |
author = {Barbosa, M.},
|
| 299 |
year = {2026},
|
| 300 |
url = {https://huggingface.co/mbarbosa1/zeno-divergent-v1},
|
| 301 |
+
version = {v0.9.0}
|
| 302 |
}
|
| 303 |
```
|
| 304 |
|
SHA256SUMS
CHANGED
|
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
|
|
| 1 |
-
|
| 2 |
-
|
| 3 |
-
|
| 4 |
-
|
| 5 |
-
|
| 6 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
70a729022b0d010ca36df3c74fdbf59f9b1876fb2cea45d14ef2f40061b38c17 README.md
|
| 2 |
+
902c410e0ca59f5e236868df30270c8147325af79f78a73d9517ec84e822a536 benchmark.json
|
| 3 |
+
308cae5eb64879b56a9d3a9b2c75af09bbd8045e21bbca2e5caddcf82f3f44b7 config.json
|
| 4 |
+
eec29d542608fc99097522bfa22a58df29701a9269b01b5f497f71d1635eaa08 model.safetensors
|
| 5 |
+
3a6803e6c620fc8383c01925f28cb3917a1a235a1f66276a2c7d9b2a401d6243 release.json
|
| 6 |
+
63fbd503abbca0e9ca28f1c22e9bbec62ef30b0761793fa37d48036b076c47c6 report.json
|
benchmark.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -1,75 +1,84 @@
|
|
| 1 |
{
|
| 2 |
-
"candidate_version": "0.
|
| 3 |
-
"generated_at": "2026-08-
|
| 4 |
-
"parameters":
|
| 5 |
-
"shared_parameters":
|
| 6 |
"architecture_note": "per-domain input adapters -> shared dilated causal trunk -> shared surprise latent z^S -> per-domain heads",
|
| 7 |
"gate_summary": {
|
| 8 |
"promoted_domains": [
|
| 9 |
-
"
|
| 10 |
-
"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
],
|
| 12 |
-
"lodo_transfer_promoted": [],
|
| 13 |
"external_transfer_domains": [
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
"gifteval",
|
| 15 |
-
"lotsa"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
],
|
| 17 |
"status": "promoted",
|
| 18 |
-
"rule": "v0.
|
| 19 |
},
|
| 20 |
"domains": [
|
| 21 |
{
|
| 22 |
-
"domain_id": "
|
| 23 |
-
"title": "
|
| 24 |
-
"corpus": "
|
| 25 |
-
"n_entities":
|
| 26 |
-
"n_rows":
|
| 27 |
"real_corpus": true,
|
| 28 |
-
"gate_status": "
|
| 29 |
-
"selective_accuracy_gain": 0.
|
| 30 |
-
"test_coverage": 0.
|
| 31 |
"targets": {
|
| 32 |
-
"
|
| 33 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 34 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 35 |
-
0.
|
| 36 |
-
0.
|
| 37 |
],
|
| 38 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 39 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty":
|
| 40 |
},
|
| 41 |
-
"
|
| 42 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 43 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 44 |
-
0.
|
| 45 |
-
0.
|
| 46 |
],
|
| 47 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 48 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": -0.
|
| 49 |
},
|
| 50 |
-
"
|
| 51 |
-
"auroc":
|
| 52 |
-
"auroc_ci":
|
| 53 |
-
|
| 54 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 55 |
},
|
| 56 |
-
"
|
| 57 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 58 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 59 |
-
0.
|
| 60 |
-
0.
|
| 61 |
],
|
| 62 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 63 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty":
|
| 64 |
},
|
| 65 |
-
"
|
| 66 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 67 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 68 |
-
0.
|
| 69 |
-
0.
|
| 70 |
],
|
| 71 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 72 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty":
|
| 73 |
}
|
| 74 |
}
|
| 75 |
},
|
|
@@ -78,56 +87,56 @@
|
|
| 78 |
"title": "Streamflow regime shifts",
|
| 79 |
"corpus": "USGS Water Services daily values (public, credential-free)",
|
| 80 |
"n_entities": 320,
|
| 81 |
-
"n_rows":
|
| 82 |
"real_corpus": true,
|
| 83 |
-
"gate_status": "
|
| 84 |
-
"selective_accuracy_gain": 0.
|
| 85 |
-
"test_coverage": 0.
|
| 86 |
"targets": {
|
| 87 |
"flow_regime_transition": {
|
| 88 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 89 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 90 |
-
0.
|
| 91 |
-
0.
|
| 92 |
],
|
| 93 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 94 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": -0.
|
| 95 |
},
|
| 96 |
"discharge_regime_shift": {
|
| 97 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 98 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 99 |
-
0.
|
| 100 |
-
0.
|
| 101 |
],
|
| 102 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 103 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": 0.
|
| 104 |
},
|
| 105 |
"volatility_regime_shift": {
|
| 106 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 107 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 108 |
-
0.
|
| 109 |
-
0.
|
| 110 |
],
|
| 111 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 112 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": 0.
|
| 113 |
},
|
| 114 |
"surge_ahead": {
|
| 115 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 116 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 117 |
-
0.
|
| 118 |
-
0.
|
| 119 |
],
|
| 120 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 121 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": -0.
|
| 122 |
},
|
| 123 |
"compound_hydrologic_stress": {
|
| 124 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 125 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 126 |
-
0.
|
| 127 |
-
0.
|
| 128 |
],
|
| 129 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 130 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty": 0.
|
| 131 |
}
|
| 132 |
}
|
| 133 |
},
|
|
@@ -136,376 +145,277 @@
|
|
| 136 |
"title": "Market regime breaks",
|
| 137 |
"corpus": "Coinbase Exchange public market data API (no key required)",
|
| 138 |
"n_entities": 357,
|
| 139 |
-
"n_rows":
|
| 140 |
"real_corpus": true,
|
| 141 |
"gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted",
|
| 142 |
-
"selective_accuracy_gain": 0.
|
| 143 |
-
"test_coverage": 0.
|
| 144 |
"targets": {
|
| 145 |
"regime_transition": {
|
| 146 |
-
"auroc": 0.
|
| 147 |
"auroc_ci": [
|
| 148 |
-
0.
|
| 149 |
-
0.
|
| 150 |
],
|
| 151 |
-
"ece": 0.
|
| 152 |
-
"lift_vs_uncertainty":
|
| 153 |
},
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| 154 |
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| 1 |
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|
config.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -1,61 +1,59 @@
|
|
| 1 |
{
|
| 2 |
"model_type": "zeno-divergent-multi",
|
| 3 |
-
"arch_version": "surprise-arch/0.
|
| 4 |
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"version": "0.
|
| 5 |
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| 6 |
{
|
| 7 |
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"domain_id": "
|
| 8 |
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"n_features":
|
| 9 |
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|
| 10 |
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"schema_hash": "
|
| 11 |
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|
| 12 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 13 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 14 |
"log_median_gap",
|
| 15 |
"gap_cv",
|
| 16 |
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 17 |
-
"
|
| 18 |
-
"
|
| 19 |
-
"
|
| 20 |
-
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|
| 21 |
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| 37 |
-
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|
| 38 |
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|
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|
| 40 |
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|
| 41 |
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 42 |
-
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|
| 43 |
-
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|
| 44 |
-
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|
| 45 |
-
"
|
| 46 |
-
"
|
| 47 |
-
"
|
| 48 |
-
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|
| 49 |
-
"cat_last__other_event",
|
| 50 |
"cat_last__unknown",
|
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|
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|
| 53 |
-
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|
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|
| 57 |
-
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|
| 58 |
-
"cat_rate__other_event",
|
| 59 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 60 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 61 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
@@ -74,10 +72,10 @@
|
|
| 74 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 75 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 76 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 77 |
-
"
|
| 78 |
-
"
|
| 79 |
-
"
|
| 80 |
-
"
|
| 81 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 82 |
"is_cold_start",
|
| 83 |
"censored_horizon",
|
|
@@ -86,18 +84,18 @@
|
|
| 86 |
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 87 |
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 88 |
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 89 |
-
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|
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|
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| 100 |
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|
| 101 |
"log_count_24h",
|
| 102 |
"log_count_7d",
|
| 103 |
"log_count_30d",
|
|
@@ -108,36 +106,36 @@
|
|
| 108 |
"dow_cos",
|
| 109 |
"doy_sin",
|
| 110 |
"doy_cos",
|
| 111 |
-
"
|
| 112 |
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|
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|
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|
| 115 |
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|
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|
| 117 |
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|
| 118 |
-
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|
| 119 |
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 120 |
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
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-
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|
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-
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|
| 123 |
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|
| 140 |
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|
| 141 |
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 142 |
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 143 |
"resid_drift",
|
|
@@ -152,7 +150,7 @@
|
|
| 152 |
"domain_id": "hydrology",
|
| 153 |
"n_features": 120,
|
| 154 |
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 155 |
-
"schema_hash": "
|
| 156 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 157 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 158 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
@@ -280,7 +278,7 @@
|
|
| 280 |
"domain_id": "markets",
|
| 281 |
"n_features": 137,
|
| 282 |
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 283 |
-
"schema_hash": "
|
| 284 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 285 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 286 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
@@ -422,56 +420,58 @@
|
|
| 422 |
]
|
| 423 |
},
|
| 424 |
{
|
| 425 |
-
"domain_id": "
|
| 426 |
-
"n_features":
|
| 427 |
-
"n_targets":
|
| 428 |
-
"schema_hash": "
|
| 429 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 430 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 431 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 432 |
"log_median_gap",
|
| 433 |
"gap_cv",
|
| 434 |
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 435 |
-
"
|
| 436 |
-
"
|
| 437 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 450 |
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|
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|
| 452 |
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|
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-
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|
| 454 |
-
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|
| 455 |
-
"
|
| 456 |
-
"
|
| 457 |
-
"
|
| 458 |
-
"
|
| 459 |
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 460 |
-
"
|
| 461 |
-
"
|
| 462 |
-
"
|
| 463 |
-
"
|
| 464 |
-
"
|
| 465 |
-
"
|
| 466 |
-
"
|
|
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|
| 467 |
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 468 |
-
"
|
| 469 |
-
"
|
| 470 |
-
"
|
| 471 |
-
"
|
| 472 |
-
"
|
| 473 |
-
"
|
| 474 |
-
"
|
|
|
|
| 475 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 476 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 477 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
@@ -490,9 +490,295 @@
|
|
| 490 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 491 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 492 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 493 |
-
"
|
| 494 |
-
"
|
| 495 |
-
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|
| 496 |
"f107_trend",
|
| 497 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 498 |
"is_cold_start",
|
|
@@ -565,56 +851,56 @@
|
|
| 565 |
]
|
| 566 |
},
|
| 567 |
{
|
| 568 |
-
"domain_id": "
|
| 569 |
"n_features": 135,
|
| 570 |
-
"n_targets":
|
| 571 |
-
"schema_hash": "
|
| 572 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 573 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 574 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 575 |
-
"log_median_gap",
|
| 576 |
-
"gap_cv",
|
| 577 |
-
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 578 |
-
"
|
| 579 |
-
"
|
| 580 |
-
"
|
| 581 |
-
"
|
| 582 |
-
"
|
| 583 |
-
"
|
| 584 |
-
"
|
| 585 |
-
"
|
| 586 |
-
"
|
| 587 |
-
"
|
| 588 |
-
"
|
| 589 |
-
"
|
| 590 |
-
"
|
| 591 |
-
"
|
| 592 |
-
"
|
| 593 |
-
"
|
| 594 |
-
"
|
| 595 |
-
"
|
| 596 |
-
"
|
| 597 |
-
"
|
| 598 |
-
"
|
| 599 |
-
"
|
| 600 |
-
"
|
| 601 |
-
"
|
| 602 |
-
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 603 |
-
"
|
| 604 |
-
"
|
| 605 |
-
"
|
| 606 |
-
"
|
| 607 |
-
"
|
| 608 |
-
"
|
| 609 |
-
"
|
| 610 |
-
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 611 |
-
"
|
| 612 |
-
"
|
| 613 |
-
"
|
| 614 |
-
"
|
| 615 |
-
"
|
| 616 |
-
"
|
| 617 |
-
"
|
| 618 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 619 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 620 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
@@ -633,10 +919,10 @@
|
|
| 633 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 634 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 635 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 636 |
-
"
|
| 637 |
-
"
|
| 638 |
-
"
|
| 639 |
-
"
|
| 640 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 641 |
"is_cold_start",
|
| 642 |
"censored_horizon",
|
|
@@ -645,18 +931,18 @@
|
|
| 645 |
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 646 |
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 647 |
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 648 |
-
"
|
| 649 |
-
"
|
| 650 |
-
"
|
| 651 |
-
"
|
| 652 |
-
"
|
| 653 |
-
"
|
| 654 |
-
"
|
| 655 |
-
"
|
| 656 |
-
"
|
| 657 |
-
"
|
| 658 |
-
"
|
| 659 |
-
"
|
| 660 |
"log_count_24h",
|
| 661 |
"log_count_7d",
|
| 662 |
"log_count_30d",
|
|
@@ -667,36 +953,36 @@
|
|
| 667 |
"dow_cos",
|
| 668 |
"doy_sin",
|
| 669 |
"doy_cos",
|
| 670 |
-
"
|
| 671 |
-
"
|
| 672 |
-
"
|
| 673 |
-
"
|
| 674 |
-
"
|
| 675 |
-
"
|
| 676 |
-
"
|
| 677 |
-
"
|
| 678 |
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 679 |
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 680 |
-
"
|
| 681 |
-
"
|
| 682 |
-
"
|
| 683 |
-
"
|
| 684 |
-
"
|
| 685 |
-
"
|
| 686 |
-
"
|
| 687 |
-
"
|
| 688 |
-
"
|
| 689 |
-
"
|
| 690 |
-
"
|
| 691 |
-
"
|
| 692 |
-
"
|
| 693 |
-
"
|
| 694 |
-
"
|
| 695 |
-
"
|
| 696 |
-
"
|
| 697 |
-
"
|
| 698 |
-
"
|
| 699 |
-
"
|
| 700 |
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 701 |
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 702 |
"resid_drift",
|
|
@@ -710,8 +996,8 @@
|
|
| 710 |
{
|
| 711 |
"domain_id": "macro",
|
| 712 |
"n_features": 135,
|
| 713 |
-
"n_targets":
|
| 714 |
-
"schema_hash": "
|
| 715 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 716 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 717 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
@@ -849,290 +1135,6 @@
|
|
| 849 |
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 850 |
"baseline_available"
|
| 851 |
]
|
| 852 |
-
},
|
| 853 |
-
{
|
| 854 |
-
"domain_id": "wildfire",
|
| 855 |
-
"n_features": 135,
|
| 856 |
-
"n_targets": 6,
|
| 857 |
-
"schema_hash": "eb9e09646761bb3e",
|
| 858 |
-
"feature_names": [
|
| 859 |
-
"log_gap_last",
|
| 860 |
-
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 861 |
-
"log_median_gap",
|
| 862 |
-
"gap_cv",
|
| 863 |
-
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 864 |
-
"log_frp_mw_last",
|
| 865 |
-
"frp_mw_ratio_median",
|
| 866 |
-
"log_median_frp_mw",
|
| 867 |
-
"frp_mw_logsd",
|
| 868 |
-
"frp_mw_available",
|
| 869 |
-
"frp_mw_missing_rate",
|
| 870 |
-
"log_brightness_k_last",
|
| 871 |
-
"brightness_k_ratio_median",
|
| 872 |
-
"log_median_brightness_k",
|
| 873 |
-
"brightness_k_logsd",
|
| 874 |
-
"brightness_k_available",
|
| 875 |
-
"brightness_k_missing_rate",
|
| 876 |
-
"log_detections_last",
|
| 877 |
-
"detections_ratio_median",
|
| 878 |
-
"log_median_detections",
|
| 879 |
-
"detections_logsd",
|
| 880 |
-
"detections_available",
|
| 881 |
-
"detections_missing_rate",
|
| 882 |
-
"log_frp_growth_last",
|
| 883 |
-
"frp_growth_ratio_median",
|
| 884 |
-
"log_median_frp_growth",
|
| 885 |
-
"frp_growth_logsd",
|
| 886 |
-
"frp_growth_available",
|
| 887 |
-
"frp_growth_missing_rate",
|
| 888 |
-
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 889 |
-
"cat_last__sparse_detection",
|
| 890 |
-
"cat_last__cluster_forming",
|
| 891 |
-
"cat_last__active_front",
|
| 892 |
-
"cat_last__intense_front",
|
| 893 |
-
"cat_last__extreme_front",
|
| 894 |
-
"cat_last__night_detection",
|
| 895 |
-
"cat_last__low_confidence",
|
| 896 |
-
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 897 |
-
"cat_rate__sparse_detection",
|
| 898 |
-
"cat_rate__cluster_forming",
|
| 899 |
-
"cat_rate__active_front",
|
| 900 |
-
"cat_rate__intense_front",
|
| 901 |
-
"cat_rate__extreme_front",
|
| 902 |
-
"cat_rate__night_detection",
|
| 903 |
-
"cat_rate__low_confidence",
|
| 904 |
-
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 905 |
-
"cat_entropy",
|
| 906 |
-
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
| 907 |
-
"cat_switch_rate",
|
| 908 |
-
"source_count_last",
|
| 909 |
-
"source_count_mean",
|
| 910 |
-
"log_confirmations",
|
| 911 |
-
"contradiction_rate",
|
| 912 |
-
"ref_resid_gap",
|
| 913 |
-
"ref_resid_magnitude",
|
| 914 |
-
"ref_resid_category",
|
| 915 |
-
"ref_disagreement",
|
| 916 |
-
"ref_avail_gap",
|
| 917 |
-
"ref_avail_magnitude",
|
| 918 |
-
"ref_avail_category",
|
| 919 |
-
"gap_trend",
|
| 920 |
-
"cat_concentration",
|
| 921 |
-
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 922 |
-
"frp_mw_trend",
|
| 923 |
-
"brightness_k_trend",
|
| 924 |
-
"detections_trend",
|
| 925 |
-
"frp_growth_trend",
|
| 926 |
-
"log_n_past",
|
| 927 |
-
"is_cold_start",
|
| 928 |
-
"censored_horizon",
|
| 929 |
-
"gap_ratio_median_short",
|
| 930 |
-
"gap_ratio_median_long",
|
| 931 |
-
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 932 |
-
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 933 |
-
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 934 |
-
"frp_mw_ratio_median_short",
|
| 935 |
-
"frp_mw_ratio_median_long",
|
| 936 |
-
"frp_mw_median_short_over_long",
|
| 937 |
-
"brightness_k_ratio_median_short",
|
| 938 |
-
"brightness_k_ratio_median_long",
|
| 939 |
-
"brightness_k_median_short_over_long",
|
| 940 |
-
"detections_ratio_median_short",
|
| 941 |
-
"detections_ratio_median_long",
|
| 942 |
-
"detections_median_short_over_long",
|
| 943 |
-
"frp_growth_ratio_median_short",
|
| 944 |
-
"frp_growth_ratio_median_long",
|
| 945 |
-
"frp_growth_median_short_over_long",
|
| 946 |
-
"log_count_24h",
|
| 947 |
-
"log_count_7d",
|
| 948 |
-
"log_count_30d",
|
| 949 |
-
"rate_ratio_24h_30d",
|
| 950 |
-
"hour_sin",
|
| 951 |
-
"hour_cos",
|
| 952 |
-
"dow_sin",
|
| 953 |
-
"dow_cos",
|
| 954 |
-
"doy_sin",
|
| 955 |
-
"doy_cos",
|
| 956 |
-
"frp_mw_vs_climatology",
|
| 957 |
-
"frp_mw_climatology_available",
|
| 958 |
-
"brightness_k_vs_climatology",
|
| 959 |
-
"brightness_k_climatology_available",
|
| 960 |
-
"detections_vs_climatology",
|
| 961 |
-
"detections_climatology_available",
|
| 962 |
-
"frp_growth_vs_climatology",
|
| 963 |
-
"frp_growth_climatology_available",
|
| 964 |
-
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 965 |
-
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 966 |
-
"frp_mw_skew",
|
| 967 |
-
"frp_mw_kurtosis",
|
| 968 |
-
"frp_mw_quantile_pos",
|
| 969 |
-
"frp_mw_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 970 |
-
"frp_mw_hill_tail",
|
| 971 |
-
"brightness_k_skew",
|
| 972 |
-
"brightness_k_kurtosis",
|
| 973 |
-
"brightness_k_quantile_pos",
|
| 974 |
-
"brightness_k_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 975 |
-
"brightness_k_hill_tail",
|
| 976 |
-
"detections_skew",
|
| 977 |
-
"detections_kurtosis",
|
| 978 |
-
"detections_quantile_pos",
|
| 979 |
-
"detections_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 980 |
-
"detections_hill_tail",
|
| 981 |
-
"frp_growth_skew",
|
| 982 |
-
"frp_growth_kurtosis",
|
| 983 |
-
"frp_growth_quantile_pos",
|
| 984 |
-
"frp_growth_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 985 |
-
"frp_growth_hill_tail",
|
| 986 |
-
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 987 |
-
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 988 |
-
"resid_drift",
|
| 989 |
-
"resid_median",
|
| 990 |
-
"resid_seasonal_naive",
|
| 991 |
-
"baseline_spread",
|
| 992 |
-
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 993 |
-
"baseline_available"
|
| 994 |
-
]
|
| 995 |
-
},
|
| 996 |
-
{
|
| 997 |
-
"domain_id": "chaos",
|
| 998 |
-
"n_features": 133,
|
| 999 |
-
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 1000 |
-
"schema_hash": "c037a57b78b4a96b",
|
| 1001 |
-
"feature_names": [
|
| 1002 |
-
"log_gap_last",
|
| 1003 |
-
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 1004 |
-
"log_median_gap",
|
| 1005 |
-
"gap_cv",
|
| 1006 |
-
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 1007 |
-
"log_energy_last",
|
| 1008 |
-
"energy_ratio_median",
|
| 1009 |
-
"log_median_energy",
|
| 1010 |
-
"energy_logsd",
|
| 1011 |
-
"energy_available",
|
| 1012 |
-
"energy_missing_rate",
|
| 1013 |
-
"log_residual_last",
|
| 1014 |
-
"residual_ratio_median",
|
| 1015 |
-
"log_median_residual",
|
| 1016 |
-
"residual_logsd",
|
| 1017 |
-
"residual_available",
|
| 1018 |
-
"residual_missing_rate",
|
| 1019 |
-
"log_spread_last",
|
| 1020 |
-
"spread_ratio_median",
|
| 1021 |
-
"log_median_spread",
|
| 1022 |
-
"spread_logsd",
|
| 1023 |
-
"spread_available",
|
| 1024 |
-
"spread_missing_rate",
|
| 1025 |
-
"log_order_param_last",
|
| 1026 |
-
"order_param_ratio_median",
|
| 1027 |
-
"log_median_order_param",
|
| 1028 |
-
"order_param_logsd",
|
| 1029 |
-
"order_param_available",
|
| 1030 |
-
"order_param_missing_rate",
|
| 1031 |
-
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 1032 |
-
"cat_last__fixed_point",
|
| 1033 |
-
"cat_last__periodic",
|
| 1034 |
-
"cat_last__quasiperiodic",
|
| 1035 |
-
"cat_last__weak_chaos",
|
| 1036 |
-
"cat_last__strong_chaos",
|
| 1037 |
-
"cat_last__intermittent",
|
| 1038 |
-
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 1039 |
-
"cat_rate__fixed_point",
|
| 1040 |
-
"cat_rate__periodic",
|
| 1041 |
-
"cat_rate__quasiperiodic",
|
| 1042 |
-
"cat_rate__weak_chaos",
|
| 1043 |
-
"cat_rate__strong_chaos",
|
| 1044 |
-
"cat_rate__intermittent",
|
| 1045 |
-
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 1046 |
-
"cat_entropy",
|
| 1047 |
-
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
| 1048 |
-
"cat_switch_rate",
|
| 1049 |
-
"source_count_last",
|
| 1050 |
-
"source_count_mean",
|
| 1051 |
-
"log_confirmations",
|
| 1052 |
-
"contradiction_rate",
|
| 1053 |
-
"ref_resid_gap",
|
| 1054 |
-
"ref_resid_magnitude",
|
| 1055 |
-
"ref_resid_category",
|
| 1056 |
-
"ref_disagreement",
|
| 1057 |
-
"ref_avail_gap",
|
| 1058 |
-
"ref_avail_magnitude",
|
| 1059 |
-
"ref_avail_category",
|
| 1060 |
-
"gap_trend",
|
| 1061 |
-
"cat_concentration",
|
| 1062 |
-
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 1063 |
-
"energy_trend",
|
| 1064 |
-
"residual_trend",
|
| 1065 |
-
"spread_trend",
|
| 1066 |
-
"order_param_trend",
|
| 1067 |
-
"log_n_past",
|
| 1068 |
-
"is_cold_start",
|
| 1069 |
-
"censored_horizon",
|
| 1070 |
-
"gap_ratio_median_short",
|
| 1071 |
-
"gap_ratio_median_long",
|
| 1072 |
-
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 1073 |
-
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 1074 |
-
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 1075 |
-
"energy_ratio_median_short",
|
| 1076 |
-
"energy_ratio_median_long",
|
| 1077 |
-
"energy_median_short_over_long",
|
| 1078 |
-
"residual_ratio_median_short",
|
| 1079 |
-
"residual_ratio_median_long",
|
| 1080 |
-
"residual_median_short_over_long",
|
| 1081 |
-
"spread_ratio_median_short",
|
| 1082 |
-
"spread_ratio_median_long",
|
| 1083 |
-
"spread_median_short_over_long",
|
| 1084 |
-
"order_param_ratio_median_short",
|
| 1085 |
-
"order_param_ratio_median_long",
|
| 1086 |
-
"order_param_median_short_over_long",
|
| 1087 |
-
"log_count_24h",
|
| 1088 |
-
"log_count_7d",
|
| 1089 |
-
"log_count_30d",
|
| 1090 |
-
"rate_ratio_24h_30d",
|
| 1091 |
-
"hour_sin",
|
| 1092 |
-
"hour_cos",
|
| 1093 |
-
"dow_sin",
|
| 1094 |
-
"dow_cos",
|
| 1095 |
-
"doy_sin",
|
| 1096 |
-
"doy_cos",
|
| 1097 |
-
"energy_vs_climatology",
|
| 1098 |
-
"energy_climatology_available",
|
| 1099 |
-
"residual_vs_climatology",
|
| 1100 |
-
"residual_climatology_available",
|
| 1101 |
-
"spread_vs_climatology",
|
| 1102 |
-
"spread_climatology_available",
|
| 1103 |
-
"order_param_vs_climatology",
|
| 1104 |
-
"order_param_climatology_available",
|
| 1105 |
-
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 1106 |
-
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 1107 |
-
"energy_skew",
|
| 1108 |
-
"energy_kurtosis",
|
| 1109 |
-
"energy_quantile_pos",
|
| 1110 |
-
"energy_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 1111 |
-
"energy_hill_tail",
|
| 1112 |
-
"residual_skew",
|
| 1113 |
-
"residual_kurtosis",
|
| 1114 |
-
"residual_quantile_pos",
|
| 1115 |
-
"residual_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 1116 |
-
"residual_hill_tail",
|
| 1117 |
-
"spread_skew",
|
| 1118 |
-
"spread_kurtosis",
|
| 1119 |
-
"spread_quantile_pos",
|
| 1120 |
-
"spread_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 1121 |
-
"spread_hill_tail",
|
| 1122 |
-
"order_param_skew",
|
| 1123 |
-
"order_param_kurtosis",
|
| 1124 |
-
"order_param_quantile_pos",
|
| 1125 |
-
"order_param_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 1126 |
-
"order_param_hill_tail",
|
| 1127 |
-
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 1128 |
-
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 1129 |
-
"resid_drift",
|
| 1130 |
-
"resid_median",
|
| 1131 |
-
"resid_seasonal_naive",
|
| 1132 |
-
"baseline_spread",
|
| 1133 |
-
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 1134 |
-
"baseline_available"
|
| 1135 |
-
]
|
| 1136 |
}
|
| 1137 |
],
|
| 1138 |
"d_model": 256,
|
|
@@ -1147,18 +1149,20 @@
|
|
| 1147 |
"counter_expectation": true,
|
| 1148 |
"domain_adversarial": true,
|
| 1149 |
"n_domains_adv": 8,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1150 |
"sequence": {
|
| 1151 |
"sequence_steps": 12,
|
| 1152 |
"sequence_version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0",
|
| 1153 |
"domains": [
|
| 1154 |
-
"
|
| 1155 |
"hydrology",
|
| 1156 |
"markets",
|
| 1157 |
-
"
|
| 1158 |
-
"climate",
|
| 1159 |
-
"macro",
|
| 1160 |
"wildfire",
|
| 1161 |
-
"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1162 |
]
|
| 1163 |
}
|
| 1164 |
}
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
{
|
| 2 |
"model_type": "zeno-divergent-multi",
|
| 3 |
+
"arch_version": "surprise-arch/0.6.0",
|
| 4 |
+
"version": "0.9.0",
|
| 5 |
"domains": [
|
| 6 |
{
|
| 7 |
+
"domain_id": "climate",
|
| 8 |
+
"n_features": 135,
|
| 9 |
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 10 |
+
"schema_hash": "3d69ae3938606367",
|
| 11 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 12 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 13 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 14 |
"log_median_gap",
|
| 15 |
"gap_cv",
|
| 16 |
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 17 |
+
"log_tmax_c_last",
|
| 18 |
+
"tmax_c_ratio_median",
|
| 19 |
+
"log_median_tmax_c",
|
| 20 |
+
"tmax_c_logsd",
|
| 21 |
+
"tmax_c_available",
|
| 22 |
+
"tmax_c_missing_rate",
|
| 23 |
+
"log_trange_c_last",
|
| 24 |
+
"trange_c_ratio_median",
|
| 25 |
+
"log_median_trange_c",
|
| 26 |
+
"trange_c_logsd",
|
| 27 |
+
"trange_c_available",
|
| 28 |
+
"trange_c_missing_rate",
|
| 29 |
+
"log_anomaly_c_last",
|
| 30 |
+
"anomaly_c_ratio_median",
|
| 31 |
+
"log_median_anomaly_c",
|
| 32 |
+
"anomaly_c_logsd",
|
| 33 |
+
"anomaly_c_available",
|
| 34 |
+
"anomaly_c_missing_rate",
|
| 35 |
+
"log_precip_mm_last",
|
| 36 |
+
"precip_mm_ratio_median",
|
| 37 |
+
"log_median_precip_mm",
|
| 38 |
+
"precip_mm_logsd",
|
| 39 |
+
"precip_mm_available",
|
| 40 |
+
"precip_mm_missing_rate",
|
| 41 |
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 42 |
+
"cat_last__cold_anomaly",
|
| 43 |
+
"cat_last__cool",
|
| 44 |
+
"cat_last__seasonal_normal",
|
| 45 |
+
"cat_last__warm",
|
| 46 |
+
"cat_last__heat_anomaly",
|
| 47 |
+
"cat_last__wet_day",
|
| 48 |
+
"cat_last__extreme_precip",
|
|
|
|
| 49 |
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 50 |
+
"cat_rate__cold_anomaly",
|
| 51 |
+
"cat_rate__cool",
|
| 52 |
+
"cat_rate__seasonal_normal",
|
| 53 |
+
"cat_rate__warm",
|
| 54 |
+
"cat_rate__heat_anomaly",
|
| 55 |
+
"cat_rate__wet_day",
|
| 56 |
+
"cat_rate__extreme_precip",
|
|
|
|
| 57 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 58 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 59 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
|
|
| 72 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 73 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 74 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 75 |
+
"tmax_c_trend",
|
| 76 |
+
"trange_c_trend",
|
| 77 |
+
"anomaly_c_trend",
|
| 78 |
+
"precip_mm_trend",
|
| 79 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 80 |
"is_cold_start",
|
| 81 |
"censored_horizon",
|
|
|
|
| 84 |
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 85 |
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 86 |
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 87 |
+
"tmax_c_ratio_median_short",
|
| 88 |
+
"tmax_c_ratio_median_long",
|
| 89 |
+
"tmax_c_median_short_over_long",
|
| 90 |
+
"trange_c_ratio_median_short",
|
| 91 |
+
"trange_c_ratio_median_long",
|
| 92 |
+
"trange_c_median_short_over_long",
|
| 93 |
+
"anomaly_c_ratio_median_short",
|
| 94 |
+
"anomaly_c_ratio_median_long",
|
| 95 |
+
"anomaly_c_median_short_over_long",
|
| 96 |
+
"precip_mm_ratio_median_short",
|
| 97 |
+
"precip_mm_ratio_median_long",
|
| 98 |
+
"precip_mm_median_short_over_long",
|
| 99 |
"log_count_24h",
|
| 100 |
"log_count_7d",
|
| 101 |
"log_count_30d",
|
|
|
|
| 106 |
"dow_cos",
|
| 107 |
"doy_sin",
|
| 108 |
"doy_cos",
|
| 109 |
+
"tmax_c_vs_climatology",
|
| 110 |
+
"tmax_c_climatology_available",
|
| 111 |
+
"trange_c_vs_climatology",
|
| 112 |
+
"trange_c_climatology_available",
|
| 113 |
+
"anomaly_c_vs_climatology",
|
| 114 |
+
"anomaly_c_climatology_available",
|
| 115 |
+
"precip_mm_vs_climatology",
|
| 116 |
+
"precip_mm_climatology_available",
|
| 117 |
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 118 |
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 119 |
+
"tmax_c_skew",
|
| 120 |
+
"tmax_c_kurtosis",
|
| 121 |
+
"tmax_c_quantile_pos",
|
| 122 |
+
"tmax_c_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 123 |
+
"tmax_c_hill_tail",
|
| 124 |
+
"trange_c_skew",
|
| 125 |
+
"trange_c_kurtosis",
|
| 126 |
+
"trange_c_quantile_pos",
|
| 127 |
+
"trange_c_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 128 |
+
"trange_c_hill_tail",
|
| 129 |
+
"anomaly_c_skew",
|
| 130 |
+
"anomaly_c_kurtosis",
|
| 131 |
+
"anomaly_c_quantile_pos",
|
| 132 |
+
"anomaly_c_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 133 |
+
"anomaly_c_hill_tail",
|
| 134 |
+
"precip_mm_skew",
|
| 135 |
+
"precip_mm_kurtosis",
|
| 136 |
+
"precip_mm_quantile_pos",
|
| 137 |
+
"precip_mm_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 138 |
+
"precip_mm_hill_tail",
|
| 139 |
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 140 |
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 141 |
"resid_drift",
|
|
|
|
| 150 |
"domain_id": "hydrology",
|
| 151 |
"n_features": 120,
|
| 152 |
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 153 |
+
"schema_hash": "5d147bb24c2cbe00",
|
| 154 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 155 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 156 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
|
|
| 278 |
"domain_id": "markets",
|
| 279 |
"n_features": 137,
|
| 280 |
"n_targets": 5,
|
| 281 |
+
"schema_hash": "ff0fef09349ea5a3",
|
| 282 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 283 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 284 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
|
|
| 420 |
]
|
| 421 |
},
|
| 422 |
{
|
| 423 |
+
"domain_id": "seismic",
|
| 424 |
+
"n_features": 137,
|
| 425 |
+
"n_targets": 4,
|
| 426 |
+
"schema_hash": "2cd75de68c3480f8",
|
| 427 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 428 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 429 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 430 |
"log_median_gap",
|
| 431 |
"gap_cv",
|
| 432 |
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 433 |
+
"log_magnitude_last",
|
| 434 |
+
"magnitude_ratio_median",
|
| 435 |
+
"log_median_magnitude",
|
| 436 |
+
"magnitude_logsd",
|
| 437 |
+
"magnitude_available",
|
| 438 |
+
"magnitude_missing_rate",
|
| 439 |
+
"log_depth_km_last",
|
| 440 |
+
"depth_km_ratio_median",
|
| 441 |
+
"log_median_depth_km",
|
| 442 |
+
"depth_km_logsd",
|
| 443 |
+
"depth_km_available",
|
| 444 |
+
"depth_km_missing_rate",
|
| 445 |
+
"log_azimuthal_gap_last",
|
| 446 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_ratio_median",
|
| 447 |
+
"log_median_azimuthal_gap",
|
| 448 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_logsd",
|
| 449 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_available",
|
| 450 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_missing_rate",
|
| 451 |
+
"log_rms_residual_last",
|
| 452 |
+
"rms_residual_ratio_median",
|
| 453 |
+
"log_median_rms_residual",
|
| 454 |
+
"rms_residual_logsd",
|
| 455 |
+
"rms_residual_available",
|
| 456 |
+
"rms_residual_missing_rate",
|
| 457 |
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 458 |
+
"cat_last__micro_shallow",
|
| 459 |
+
"cat_last__light_shallow",
|
| 460 |
+
"cat_last__moderate_shallow",
|
| 461 |
+
"cat_last__strong_event",
|
| 462 |
+
"cat_last__intermediate_depth",
|
| 463 |
+
"cat_last__deep_focus",
|
| 464 |
+
"cat_last__quarry_blast",
|
| 465 |
+
"cat_last__other_event",
|
| 466 |
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 467 |
+
"cat_rate__micro_shallow",
|
| 468 |
+
"cat_rate__light_shallow",
|
| 469 |
+
"cat_rate__moderate_shallow",
|
| 470 |
+
"cat_rate__strong_event",
|
| 471 |
+
"cat_rate__intermediate_depth",
|
| 472 |
+
"cat_rate__deep_focus",
|
| 473 |
+
"cat_rate__quarry_blast",
|
| 474 |
+
"cat_rate__other_event",
|
| 475 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 476 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 477 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
|
|
| 490 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 491 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 492 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 493 |
+
"magnitude_trend",
|
| 494 |
+
"depth_km_trend",
|
| 495 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_trend",
|
| 496 |
+
"rms_residual_trend",
|
| 497 |
+
"log_n_past",
|
| 498 |
+
"is_cold_start",
|
| 499 |
+
"censored_horizon",
|
| 500 |
+
"gap_ratio_median_short",
|
| 501 |
+
"gap_ratio_median_long",
|
| 502 |
+
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 503 |
+
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 504 |
+
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 505 |
+
"magnitude_ratio_median_short",
|
| 506 |
+
"magnitude_ratio_median_long",
|
| 507 |
+
"magnitude_median_short_over_long",
|
| 508 |
+
"depth_km_ratio_median_short",
|
| 509 |
+
"depth_km_ratio_median_long",
|
| 510 |
+
"depth_km_median_short_over_long",
|
| 511 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_ratio_median_short",
|
| 512 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_ratio_median_long",
|
| 513 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 514 |
+
"rms_residual_ratio_median_short",
|
| 515 |
+
"rms_residual_ratio_median_long",
|
| 516 |
+
"rms_residual_median_short_over_long",
|
| 517 |
+
"log_count_24h",
|
| 518 |
+
"log_count_7d",
|
| 519 |
+
"log_count_30d",
|
| 520 |
+
"rate_ratio_24h_30d",
|
| 521 |
+
"hour_sin",
|
| 522 |
+
"hour_cos",
|
| 523 |
+
"dow_sin",
|
| 524 |
+
"dow_cos",
|
| 525 |
+
"doy_sin",
|
| 526 |
+
"doy_cos",
|
| 527 |
+
"magnitude_vs_climatology",
|
| 528 |
+
"magnitude_climatology_available",
|
| 529 |
+
"depth_km_vs_climatology",
|
| 530 |
+
"depth_km_climatology_available",
|
| 531 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_vs_climatology",
|
| 532 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_climatology_available",
|
| 533 |
+
"rms_residual_vs_climatology",
|
| 534 |
+
"rms_residual_climatology_available",
|
| 535 |
+
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 536 |
+
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 537 |
+
"magnitude_skew",
|
| 538 |
+
"magnitude_kurtosis",
|
| 539 |
+
"magnitude_quantile_pos",
|
| 540 |
+
"magnitude_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 541 |
+
"magnitude_hill_tail",
|
| 542 |
+
"depth_km_skew",
|
| 543 |
+
"depth_km_kurtosis",
|
| 544 |
+
"depth_km_quantile_pos",
|
| 545 |
+
"depth_km_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 546 |
+
"depth_km_hill_tail",
|
| 547 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_skew",
|
| 548 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_kurtosis",
|
| 549 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 550 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 551 |
+
"azimuthal_gap_hill_tail",
|
| 552 |
+
"rms_residual_skew",
|
| 553 |
+
"rms_residual_kurtosis",
|
| 554 |
+
"rms_residual_quantile_pos",
|
| 555 |
+
"rms_residual_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 556 |
+
"rms_residual_hill_tail",
|
| 557 |
+
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 558 |
+
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 559 |
+
"resid_drift",
|
| 560 |
+
"resid_median",
|
| 561 |
+
"resid_seasonal_naive",
|
| 562 |
+
"baseline_spread",
|
| 563 |
+
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 564 |
+
"baseline_available"
|
| 565 |
+
]
|
| 566 |
+
},
|
| 567 |
+
{
|
| 568 |
+
"domain_id": "wildfire",
|
| 569 |
+
"n_features": 135,
|
| 570 |
+
"n_targets": 6,
|
| 571 |
+
"schema_hash": "cc1cddf8c7ac8333",
|
| 572 |
+
"feature_names": [
|
| 573 |
+
"log_gap_last",
|
| 574 |
+
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 575 |
+
"log_median_gap",
|
| 576 |
+
"gap_cv",
|
| 577 |
+
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 578 |
+
"log_frp_mw_last",
|
| 579 |
+
"frp_mw_ratio_median",
|
| 580 |
+
"log_median_frp_mw",
|
| 581 |
+
"frp_mw_logsd",
|
| 582 |
+
"frp_mw_available",
|
| 583 |
+
"frp_mw_missing_rate",
|
| 584 |
+
"log_brightness_k_last",
|
| 585 |
+
"brightness_k_ratio_median",
|
| 586 |
+
"log_median_brightness_k",
|
| 587 |
+
"brightness_k_logsd",
|
| 588 |
+
"brightness_k_available",
|
| 589 |
+
"brightness_k_missing_rate",
|
| 590 |
+
"log_detections_last",
|
| 591 |
+
"detections_ratio_median",
|
| 592 |
+
"log_median_detections",
|
| 593 |
+
"detections_logsd",
|
| 594 |
+
"detections_available",
|
| 595 |
+
"detections_missing_rate",
|
| 596 |
+
"log_frp_growth_last",
|
| 597 |
+
"frp_growth_ratio_median",
|
| 598 |
+
"log_median_frp_growth",
|
| 599 |
+
"frp_growth_logsd",
|
| 600 |
+
"frp_growth_available",
|
| 601 |
+
"frp_growth_missing_rate",
|
| 602 |
+
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 603 |
+
"cat_last__sparse_detection",
|
| 604 |
+
"cat_last__cluster_forming",
|
| 605 |
+
"cat_last__active_front",
|
| 606 |
+
"cat_last__intense_front",
|
| 607 |
+
"cat_last__extreme_front",
|
| 608 |
+
"cat_last__night_detection",
|
| 609 |
+
"cat_last__low_confidence",
|
| 610 |
+
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 611 |
+
"cat_rate__sparse_detection",
|
| 612 |
+
"cat_rate__cluster_forming",
|
| 613 |
+
"cat_rate__active_front",
|
| 614 |
+
"cat_rate__intense_front",
|
| 615 |
+
"cat_rate__extreme_front",
|
| 616 |
+
"cat_rate__night_detection",
|
| 617 |
+
"cat_rate__low_confidence",
|
| 618 |
+
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 619 |
+
"cat_entropy",
|
| 620 |
+
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
| 621 |
+
"cat_switch_rate",
|
| 622 |
+
"source_count_last",
|
| 623 |
+
"source_count_mean",
|
| 624 |
+
"log_confirmations",
|
| 625 |
+
"contradiction_rate",
|
| 626 |
+
"ref_resid_gap",
|
| 627 |
+
"ref_resid_magnitude",
|
| 628 |
+
"ref_resid_category",
|
| 629 |
+
"ref_disagreement",
|
| 630 |
+
"ref_avail_gap",
|
| 631 |
+
"ref_avail_magnitude",
|
| 632 |
+
"ref_avail_category",
|
| 633 |
+
"gap_trend",
|
| 634 |
+
"cat_concentration",
|
| 635 |
+
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 636 |
+
"frp_mw_trend",
|
| 637 |
+
"brightness_k_trend",
|
| 638 |
+
"detections_trend",
|
| 639 |
+
"frp_growth_trend",
|
| 640 |
+
"log_n_past",
|
| 641 |
+
"is_cold_start",
|
| 642 |
+
"censored_horizon",
|
| 643 |
+
"gap_ratio_median_short",
|
| 644 |
+
"gap_ratio_median_long",
|
| 645 |
+
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 646 |
+
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 647 |
+
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 648 |
+
"frp_mw_ratio_median_short",
|
| 649 |
+
"frp_mw_ratio_median_long",
|
| 650 |
+
"frp_mw_median_short_over_long",
|
| 651 |
+
"brightness_k_ratio_median_short",
|
| 652 |
+
"brightness_k_ratio_median_long",
|
| 653 |
+
"brightness_k_median_short_over_long",
|
| 654 |
+
"detections_ratio_median_short",
|
| 655 |
+
"detections_ratio_median_long",
|
| 656 |
+
"detections_median_short_over_long",
|
| 657 |
+
"frp_growth_ratio_median_short",
|
| 658 |
+
"frp_growth_ratio_median_long",
|
| 659 |
+
"frp_growth_median_short_over_long",
|
| 660 |
+
"log_count_24h",
|
| 661 |
+
"log_count_7d",
|
| 662 |
+
"log_count_30d",
|
| 663 |
+
"rate_ratio_24h_30d",
|
| 664 |
+
"hour_sin",
|
| 665 |
+
"hour_cos",
|
| 666 |
+
"dow_sin",
|
| 667 |
+
"dow_cos",
|
| 668 |
+
"doy_sin",
|
| 669 |
+
"doy_cos",
|
| 670 |
+
"frp_mw_vs_climatology",
|
| 671 |
+
"frp_mw_climatology_available",
|
| 672 |
+
"brightness_k_vs_climatology",
|
| 673 |
+
"brightness_k_climatology_available",
|
| 674 |
+
"detections_vs_climatology",
|
| 675 |
+
"detections_climatology_available",
|
| 676 |
+
"frp_growth_vs_climatology",
|
| 677 |
+
"frp_growth_climatology_available",
|
| 678 |
+
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 679 |
+
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 680 |
+
"frp_mw_skew",
|
| 681 |
+
"frp_mw_kurtosis",
|
| 682 |
+
"frp_mw_quantile_pos",
|
| 683 |
+
"frp_mw_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 684 |
+
"frp_mw_hill_tail",
|
| 685 |
+
"brightness_k_skew",
|
| 686 |
+
"brightness_k_kurtosis",
|
| 687 |
+
"brightness_k_quantile_pos",
|
| 688 |
+
"brightness_k_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 689 |
+
"brightness_k_hill_tail",
|
| 690 |
+
"detections_skew",
|
| 691 |
+
"detections_kurtosis",
|
| 692 |
+
"detections_quantile_pos",
|
| 693 |
+
"detections_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 694 |
+
"detections_hill_tail",
|
| 695 |
+
"frp_growth_skew",
|
| 696 |
+
"frp_growth_kurtosis",
|
| 697 |
+
"frp_growth_quantile_pos",
|
| 698 |
+
"frp_growth_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 699 |
+
"frp_growth_hill_tail",
|
| 700 |
+
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 701 |
+
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 702 |
+
"resid_drift",
|
| 703 |
+
"resid_median",
|
| 704 |
+
"resid_seasonal_naive",
|
| 705 |
+
"baseline_spread",
|
| 706 |
+
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 707 |
+
"baseline_available"
|
| 708 |
+
]
|
| 709 |
+
},
|
| 710 |
+
{
|
| 711 |
+
"domain_id": "spaceweather",
|
| 712 |
+
"n_features": 135,
|
| 713 |
+
"n_targets": 4,
|
| 714 |
+
"schema_hash": "d06f95410a1ddb08",
|
| 715 |
+
"feature_names": [
|
| 716 |
+
"log_gap_last",
|
| 717 |
+
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 718 |
+
"log_median_gap",
|
| 719 |
+
"gap_cv",
|
| 720 |
+
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 721 |
+
"log_kp_last",
|
| 722 |
+
"kp_ratio_median",
|
| 723 |
+
"log_median_kp",
|
| 724 |
+
"kp_logsd",
|
| 725 |
+
"kp_available",
|
| 726 |
+
"kp_missing_rate",
|
| 727 |
+
"log_ap_last",
|
| 728 |
+
"ap_ratio_median",
|
| 729 |
+
"log_median_ap",
|
| 730 |
+
"ap_logsd",
|
| 731 |
+
"ap_available",
|
| 732 |
+
"ap_missing_rate",
|
| 733 |
+
"log_ap_rise_last",
|
| 734 |
+
"ap_rise_ratio_median",
|
| 735 |
+
"log_median_ap_rise",
|
| 736 |
+
"ap_rise_logsd",
|
| 737 |
+
"ap_rise_available",
|
| 738 |
+
"ap_rise_missing_rate",
|
| 739 |
+
"log_f107_last",
|
| 740 |
+
"f107_ratio_median",
|
| 741 |
+
"log_median_f107",
|
| 742 |
+
"f107_logsd",
|
| 743 |
+
"f107_available",
|
| 744 |
+
"f107_missing_rate",
|
| 745 |
+
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 746 |
+
"cat_last__quiet",
|
| 747 |
+
"cat_last__unsettled",
|
| 748 |
+
"cat_last__active",
|
| 749 |
+
"cat_last__minor_storm",
|
| 750 |
+
"cat_last__moderate_storm",
|
| 751 |
+
"cat_last__strong_storm",
|
| 752 |
+
"cat_last__severe_storm",
|
| 753 |
+
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 754 |
+
"cat_rate__quiet",
|
| 755 |
+
"cat_rate__unsettled",
|
| 756 |
+
"cat_rate__active",
|
| 757 |
+
"cat_rate__minor_storm",
|
| 758 |
+
"cat_rate__moderate_storm",
|
| 759 |
+
"cat_rate__strong_storm",
|
| 760 |
+
"cat_rate__severe_storm",
|
| 761 |
+
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 762 |
+
"cat_entropy",
|
| 763 |
+
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
| 764 |
+
"cat_switch_rate",
|
| 765 |
+
"source_count_last",
|
| 766 |
+
"source_count_mean",
|
| 767 |
+
"log_confirmations",
|
| 768 |
+
"contradiction_rate",
|
| 769 |
+
"ref_resid_gap",
|
| 770 |
+
"ref_resid_magnitude",
|
| 771 |
+
"ref_resid_category",
|
| 772 |
+
"ref_disagreement",
|
| 773 |
+
"ref_avail_gap",
|
| 774 |
+
"ref_avail_magnitude",
|
| 775 |
+
"ref_avail_category",
|
| 776 |
+
"gap_trend",
|
| 777 |
+
"cat_concentration",
|
| 778 |
+
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 779 |
+
"kp_trend",
|
| 780 |
+
"ap_trend",
|
| 781 |
+
"ap_rise_trend",
|
| 782 |
"f107_trend",
|
| 783 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 784 |
"is_cold_start",
|
|
|
|
| 851 |
]
|
| 852 |
},
|
| 853 |
{
|
| 854 |
+
"domain_id": "celo",
|
| 855 |
"n_features": 135,
|
| 856 |
+
"n_targets": 2,
|
| 857 |
+
"schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c",
|
| 858 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 859 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 860 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
| 861 |
+
"log_median_gap",
|
| 862 |
+
"gap_cv",
|
| 863 |
+
"log_gap_prev",
|
| 864 |
+
"log_tx_count_last",
|
| 865 |
+
"tx_count_ratio_median",
|
| 866 |
+
"log_median_tx_count",
|
| 867 |
+
"tx_count_logsd",
|
| 868 |
+
"tx_count_available",
|
| 869 |
+
"tx_count_missing_rate",
|
| 870 |
+
"log_gas_ratio_last",
|
| 871 |
+
"gas_ratio_ratio_median",
|
| 872 |
+
"log_median_gas_ratio",
|
| 873 |
+
"gas_ratio_logsd",
|
| 874 |
+
"gas_ratio_available",
|
| 875 |
+
"gas_ratio_missing_rate",
|
| 876 |
+
"log_block_interval_s_last",
|
| 877 |
+
"block_interval_s_ratio_median",
|
| 878 |
+
"log_median_block_interval_s",
|
| 879 |
+
"block_interval_s_logsd",
|
| 880 |
+
"block_interval_s_available",
|
| 881 |
+
"block_interval_s_missing_rate",
|
| 882 |
+
"log_base_fee_gwei_last",
|
| 883 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_ratio_median",
|
| 884 |
+
"log_median_base_fee_gwei",
|
| 885 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_logsd",
|
| 886 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_available",
|
| 887 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_missing_rate",
|
| 888 |
+
"reference_missing_rate",
|
| 889 |
+
"cat_last__idle_block",
|
| 890 |
+
"cat_last__light_block",
|
| 891 |
+
"cat_last__normal_block",
|
| 892 |
+
"cat_last__busy_block",
|
| 893 |
+
"cat_last__saturated_block",
|
| 894 |
+
"cat_last__slow_block",
|
| 895 |
+
"cat_last__burst_block",
|
| 896 |
+
"cat_last__unknown",
|
| 897 |
+
"cat_rate__idle_block",
|
| 898 |
+
"cat_rate__light_block",
|
| 899 |
+
"cat_rate__normal_block",
|
| 900 |
+
"cat_rate__busy_block",
|
| 901 |
+
"cat_rate__saturated_block",
|
| 902 |
+
"cat_rate__slow_block",
|
| 903 |
+
"cat_rate__burst_block",
|
| 904 |
"cat_rate__unknown",
|
| 905 |
"cat_entropy",
|
| 906 |
"unknown_cat_rate",
|
|
|
|
| 919 |
"gap_trend",
|
| 920 |
"cat_concentration",
|
| 921 |
"recent_vs_old_gap",
|
| 922 |
+
"tx_count_trend",
|
| 923 |
+
"gas_ratio_trend",
|
| 924 |
+
"block_interval_s_trend",
|
| 925 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_trend",
|
| 926 |
"log_n_past",
|
| 927 |
"is_cold_start",
|
| 928 |
"censored_horizon",
|
|
|
|
| 931 |
"gap_cv_short",
|
| 932 |
"gap_cv_long",
|
| 933 |
"gap_median_short_over_long",
|
| 934 |
+
"tx_count_ratio_median_short",
|
| 935 |
+
"tx_count_ratio_median_long",
|
| 936 |
+
"tx_count_median_short_over_long",
|
| 937 |
+
"gas_ratio_ratio_median_short",
|
| 938 |
+
"gas_ratio_ratio_median_long",
|
| 939 |
+
"gas_ratio_median_short_over_long",
|
| 940 |
+
"block_interval_s_ratio_median_short",
|
| 941 |
+
"block_interval_s_ratio_median_long",
|
| 942 |
+
"block_interval_s_median_short_over_long",
|
| 943 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_ratio_median_short",
|
| 944 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_ratio_median_long",
|
| 945 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_median_short_over_long",
|
| 946 |
"log_count_24h",
|
| 947 |
"log_count_7d",
|
| 948 |
"log_count_30d",
|
|
|
|
| 953 |
"dow_cos",
|
| 954 |
"doy_sin",
|
| 955 |
"doy_cos",
|
| 956 |
+
"tx_count_vs_climatology",
|
| 957 |
+
"tx_count_climatology_available",
|
| 958 |
+
"gas_ratio_vs_climatology",
|
| 959 |
+
"gas_ratio_climatology_available",
|
| 960 |
+
"block_interval_s_vs_climatology",
|
| 961 |
+
"block_interval_s_climatology_available",
|
| 962 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_vs_climatology",
|
| 963 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_climatology_available",
|
| 964 |
"gap_quantile_pos",
|
| 965 |
"gap_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 966 |
+
"tx_count_skew",
|
| 967 |
+
"tx_count_kurtosis",
|
| 968 |
+
"tx_count_quantile_pos",
|
| 969 |
+
"tx_count_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 970 |
+
"tx_count_hill_tail",
|
| 971 |
+
"gas_ratio_skew",
|
| 972 |
+
"gas_ratio_kurtosis",
|
| 973 |
+
"gas_ratio_quantile_pos",
|
| 974 |
+
"gas_ratio_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 975 |
+
"gas_ratio_hill_tail",
|
| 976 |
+
"block_interval_s_skew",
|
| 977 |
+
"block_interval_s_kurtosis",
|
| 978 |
+
"block_interval_s_quantile_pos",
|
| 979 |
+
"block_interval_s_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 980 |
+
"block_interval_s_hill_tail",
|
| 981 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_skew",
|
| 982 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_kurtosis",
|
| 983 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_quantile_pos",
|
| 984 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_exceed_p95_rate",
|
| 985 |
+
"base_fee_gwei_hill_tail",
|
| 986 |
"resid_ewma_fast",
|
| 987 |
"resid_ewma_slow",
|
| 988 |
"resid_drift",
|
|
|
|
| 996 |
{
|
| 997 |
"domain_id": "macro",
|
| 998 |
"n_features": 135,
|
| 999 |
+
"n_targets": 2,
|
| 1000 |
+
"schema_hash": "a483c38e354bd308",
|
| 1001 |
"feature_names": [
|
| 1002 |
"log_gap_last",
|
| 1003 |
"gap_ratio_median",
|
|
|
|
| 1135 |
"baseline_max_abs",
|
| 1136 |
"baseline_available"
|
| 1137 |
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1138 |
}
|
| 1139 |
],
|
| 1140 |
"d_model": 256,
|
|
|
|
| 1149 |
"counter_expectation": true,
|
| 1150 |
"domain_adversarial": true,
|
| 1151 |
"n_domains_adv": 8,
|
| 1152 |
+
"context_dim": 4,
|
| 1153 |
+
"baseline_residual": true,
|
| 1154 |
"sequence": {
|
| 1155 |
"sequence_steps": 12,
|
| 1156 |
"sequence_version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0",
|
| 1157 |
"domains": [
|
| 1158 |
+
"climate",
|
| 1159 |
"hydrology",
|
| 1160 |
"markets",
|
| 1161 |
+
"seismic",
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1162 |
"wildfire",
|
| 1163 |
+
"spaceweather",
|
| 1164 |
+
"celo",
|
| 1165 |
+
"macro"
|
| 1166 |
]
|
| 1167 |
}
|
| 1168 |
}
|
model.safetensors
CHANGED
|
@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
|
|
| 1 |
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
|
| 2 |
-
oid sha256:
|
| 3 |
-
size
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
|
| 2 |
+
oid sha256:eec29d542608fc99097522bfa22a58df29701a9269b01b5f497f71d1635eaa08
|
| 3 |
+
size 7523716
|
release.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -1,13 +1,12 @@
|
|
| 1 |
{
|
| 2 |
-
"version": "0.
|
| 3 |
-
"tag": "v0.
|
| 4 |
-
"released_at": "2026-08-
|
| 5 |
"gate_status": "promoted",
|
| 6 |
"promoted_domains": [
|
| 7 |
-
"
|
| 8 |
-
"
|
| 9 |
],
|
| 10 |
-
"parameters":
|
| 11 |
-
"main_revision_note": "main serves v0.
|
| 12 |
-
"inference_bundle": "inference.json"
|
| 13 |
}
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
{
|
| 2 |
+
"version": "0.9.0",
|
| 3 |
+
"tag": "v0.9.0",
|
| 4 |
+
"released_at": "2026-08-29T12:41:25+00:00",
|
| 5 |
"gate_status": "promoted",
|
| 6 |
"promoted_domains": [
|
| 7 |
+
"climate",
|
| 8 |
+
"seismic"
|
| 9 |
],
|
| 10 |
+
"parameters": 1877849,
|
| 11 |
+
"main_revision_note": "main serves v0.9.0 (multi-domain, promoted: climate, seismic)"
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
}
|
report.json
CHANGED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|