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"kp_exceed_p95_rate", "kp_hill_tail", "ap_skew", "ap_kurtosis", "ap_quantile_pos", "ap_exceed_p95_rate", "ap_hill_tail", "ap_rise_skew", "ap_rise_kurtosis", "ap_rise_quantile_pos", "ap_rise_exceed_p95_rate", "ap_rise_hill_tail", "f107_skew", "f107_kurtosis", "f107_quantile_pos", "f107_exceed_p95_rate", "f107_hill_tail", "resid_ewma_fast", "resid_ewma_slow", "resid_drift", "resid_median", "resid_seasonal_naive", "baseline_spread", "baseline_max_abs", "baseline_available" ] }, { "domain_id": "celo", "n_features": 135, "n_targets": 2, "schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c", "feature_names": [ "log_gap_last", "gap_ratio_median", "log_median_gap", "gap_cv", "log_gap_prev", "log_tx_count_last", "tx_count_ratio_median", "log_median_tx_count", "tx_count_logsd", "tx_count_available", "tx_count_missing_rate", "log_gas_ratio_last", "gas_ratio_ratio_median", "log_median_gas_ratio", "gas_ratio_logsd", "gas_ratio_available", "gas_ratio_missing_rate", "log_block_interval_s_last", "block_interval_s_ratio_median", "log_median_block_interval_s", "block_interval_s_logsd", "block_interval_s_available", "block_interval_s_missing_rate", "log_base_fee_gwei_last", "base_fee_gwei_ratio_median", "log_median_base_fee_gwei", "base_fee_gwei_logsd", "base_fee_gwei_available", "base_fee_gwei_missing_rate", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__idle_block", "cat_last__light_block", "cat_last__normal_block", "cat_last__busy_block", "cat_last__saturated_block", "cat_last__slow_block", "cat_last__burst_block", "cat_last__unknown", "cat_rate__idle_block", "cat_rate__light_block", "cat_rate__normal_block", "cat_rate__busy_block", "cat_rate__saturated_block", "cat_rate__slow_block", "cat_rate__burst_block", "cat_rate__unknown", "cat_entropy", "unknown_cat_rate", "cat_switch_rate", "source_count_last", "source_count_mean", "log_confirmations", "contradiction_rate", "ref_resid_gap", "ref_resid_magnitude", "ref_resid_category", "ref_disagreement", "ref_avail_gap", "ref_avail_magnitude", "ref_avail_category", "gap_trend", "cat_concentration", "recent_vs_old_gap", "tx_count_trend", "gas_ratio_trend", "block_interval_s_trend", "base_fee_gwei_trend", "log_n_past", "is_cold_start", "censored_horizon", "gap_ratio_median_short", "gap_ratio_median_long", "gap_cv_short", "gap_cv_long", "gap_median_short_over_long", "tx_count_ratio_median_short", "tx_count_ratio_median_long", "tx_count_median_short_over_long", "gas_ratio_ratio_median_short", "gas_ratio_ratio_median_long", "gas_ratio_median_short_over_long", "block_interval_s_ratio_median_short", "block_interval_s_ratio_median_long", "block_interval_s_median_short_over_long", "base_fee_gwei_ratio_median_short", "base_fee_gwei_ratio_median_long", "base_fee_gwei_median_short_over_long", "log_count_24h", "log_count_7d", "log_count_30d", "rate_ratio_24h_30d", "hour_sin", "hour_cos", "dow_sin", "dow_cos", "doy_sin", "doy_cos", "tx_count_vs_climatology", "tx_count_climatology_available", "gas_ratio_vs_climatology", "gas_ratio_climatology_available", "block_interval_s_vs_climatology", "block_interval_s_climatology_available", "base_fee_gwei_vs_climatology", "base_fee_gwei_climatology_available", "gap_quantile_pos", "gap_exceed_p95_rate", "tx_count_skew", "tx_count_kurtosis", "tx_count_quantile_pos", "tx_count_exceed_p95_rate", "tx_count_hill_tail", "gas_ratio_skew", "gas_ratio_kurtosis", "gas_ratio_quantile_pos", "gas_ratio_exceed_p95_rate", "gas_ratio_hill_tail", "block_interval_s_skew", "block_interval_s_kurtosis", "block_interval_s_quantile_pos", "block_interval_s_exceed_p95_rate", "block_interval_s_hill_tail", "base_fee_gwei_skew", "base_fee_gwei_kurtosis", "base_fee_gwei_quantile_pos", "base_fee_gwei_exceed_p95_rate", "base_fee_gwei_hill_tail", "resid_ewma_fast", "resid_ewma_slow", "resid_drift", "resid_median", "resid_seasonal_naive", "baseline_spread", "baseline_max_abs", "baseline_available" ] }, { "domain_id": "macro", "n_features": 135, "n_targets": 2, "schema_hash": "a483c38e354bd308", "feature_names": [ "log_gap_last", "gap_ratio_median", "log_median_gap", "gap_cv", "log_gap_prev", "log_level_last", "level_ratio_median", "log_median_level", "level_logsd", "level_available", "level_missing_rate", "log_abs_change_last", "abs_change_ratio_median", "log_median_abs_change", "abs_change_logsd", "abs_change_available", "abs_change_missing_rate", "log_z_change_last", "z_change_ratio_median", "log_median_z_change", "z_change_logsd", "z_change_available", "z_change_missing_rate", "log_days_since_prev_last", "days_since_prev_ratio_median", "log_median_days_since_prev", "days_since_prev_logsd", "days_since_prev_available", "days_since_prev_missing_rate", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__stable_print", "cat_last__mild_move", "cat_last__notable_move", "cat_last__large_move", "cat_last__shock_print", "cat_last__revision", "cat_last__stale_print", "cat_last__unknown", "cat_rate__stable_print", "cat_rate__mild_move", "cat_rate__notable_move", "cat_rate__large_move", "cat_rate__shock_print", "cat_rate__revision", "cat_rate__stale_print", "cat_rate__unknown", "cat_entropy", "unknown_cat_rate", "cat_switch_rate", "source_count_last", "source_count_mean", "log_confirmations", "contradiction_rate", "ref_resid_gap", "ref_resid_magnitude", "ref_resid_category", "ref_disagreement", "ref_avail_gap", "ref_avail_magnitude", "ref_avail_category", "gap_trend", "cat_concentration", "recent_vs_old_gap", "level_trend", "abs_change_trend", "z_change_trend", "days_since_prev_trend", "log_n_past", "is_cold_start", "censored_horizon", "gap_ratio_median_short", "gap_ratio_median_long", "gap_cv_short", "gap_cv_long", "gap_median_short_over_long", "level_ratio_median_short", "level_ratio_median_long", "level_median_short_over_long", "abs_change_ratio_median_short", "abs_change_ratio_median_long", "abs_change_median_short_over_long", "z_change_ratio_median_short", "z_change_ratio_median_long", "z_change_median_short_over_long", "days_since_prev_ratio_median_short", "days_since_prev_ratio_median_long", "days_since_prev_median_short_over_long", "log_count_24h", "log_count_7d", "log_count_30d", "rate_ratio_24h_30d", "hour_sin", "hour_cos", "dow_sin", "dow_cos", "doy_sin", "doy_cos", "level_vs_climatology", "level_climatology_available", "abs_change_vs_climatology", "abs_change_climatology_available", "z_change_vs_climatology", "z_change_climatology_available", "days_since_prev_vs_climatology", "days_since_prev_climatology_available", "gap_quantile_pos", "gap_exceed_p95_rate", "level_skew", "level_kurtosis", "level_quantile_pos", "level_exceed_p95_rate", "level_hill_tail", "abs_change_skew", "abs_change_kurtosis", "abs_change_quantile_pos", "abs_change_exceed_p95_rate", "abs_change_hill_tail", "z_change_skew", "z_change_kurtosis", "z_change_quantile_pos", "z_change_exceed_p95_rate", "z_change_hill_tail", "days_since_prev_skew", "days_since_prev_kurtosis", "days_since_prev_quantile_pos", "days_since_prev_exceed_p95_rate", "days_since_prev_hill_tail", "resid_ewma_fast", "resid_ewma_slow", "resid_drift", "resid_median", "resid_seasonal_naive", "baseline_spread", "baseline_max_abs", "baseline_available" ] } ], "d_model": 256, "latent": 96, "steps": 12, "dilations": [ 1, 2, 4 ], "dropout": 0.1, "arch_version": "surprise-arch/0.6.0", "counter_expectation": true, "domain_adversarial": true, "n_domains_adv": 8, "context_dim": 4, "baseline_residual": true, "parameters": 1877849, "shared_parameters": 1351209, "note": "per-domain input adapters -> shared dilated causal trunk -> shared surprise latent z^S -> per-domain heads", "auxiliary_objectives": { "counter_expectation_weight": 0.1, "domain_adversarial_weight": 0.05, "cross_domain_contrastive_weight": 0.05 } }, "training": { "epochs": 12, "seed": 7, "batch": 512, "lr": 0.0015, "history": [ { "epoch": 10, "climate": 3.0333584286272526, "hydrology": 2.885964386165142, "markets": 2.9912049658596516, "seismic": 2.9789480343461037, "wildfire": 2.65676186978817, "spaceweather": 2.793377712368965, "celo": 1.8148384001106024, "macro": 3.1028735898435116, "aux_counter": 0.26105918499524705, "aux_adv": 2.023430732777342, "aux_contrast": 4.8709485633298755 }, { "epoch": 11, "climate": 2.912375371903181, "hydrology": 2.94203232601285, "markets": 2.981886588037014, "seismic": 2.8721090257167816, "wildfire": 2.480111137032509, "spaceweather": 2.9283214919269085, "celo": 1.8248276431113482, "macro": 2.9767385199666023, "aux_counter": 0.25888890787609853, "aux_adv": 2.020496650133282, "aux_contrast": 4.87280969787389 }, { "epoch": 12, "climate": 2.870338473469019, "hydrology": 2.9355753399431705, "markets": 3.0098772570490837, "seismic": 3.010597974061966, "wildfire": 2.442360982298851, "spaceweather": 2.7827212512493134, "celo": 1.6596646010875702, "macro": 3.0142333060503006, "aux_counter": 0.25758694746764377, "aux_adv": 2.0108079810161144, "aux_contrast": 4.8706458592787385 } ] }, "domains": { "climate": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "climate", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "3d69ae3938606367", "entity_kind": "opaque_station", "categories": [ "cold_anomaly", "cool", "seasonal_normal", "warm", "heat_anomaly", "wet_day", "extreme_precip", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "tmax_c", "trange_c", "anomaly_c", "precip_mm" ], "context_dims": [ "latitude_band", "season", "anomaly_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "weather_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 6 }, { "name": "anomaly_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 32, "channel": "anomaly_c", "shift": 0.7, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "heat_extreme_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "anomaly_c", "level": 3.2027049723756944, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of anomaly_c" }, { "name": "cold_extreme_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "anomaly_c", "level": 3.2027049723756944, "direction": "below", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of anomaly_c" }, { "name": "compound_climate_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 32, "over": [ "anomaly_regime_shift", "heat_extreme_ahead" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "weather_regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.13111616671085358, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.13111616671085358 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.09911315143108368 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.08821145445108414 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.08146371692419052 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.07454152405261993 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.0735340267419815 } ] }, "anomaly_regime_shift": { "declared_horizon": 8, "selected_horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.1621631532907486, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.1974734514951706 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.17791998386383057 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.16859586536884308 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.1621631532907486 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.15580962598323822 }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": 0.1522553265094757 } ] }, "heat_extreme_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 8, "selected_horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.3106883764266968, "in_band": false, "level": 3.2027049723756944, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.3106883764266968 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.41690510511398315 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.4723520576953888 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.5078918933868408 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.5511394739151001 }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": 0.5787959694862366 } ] }, "cold_extreme_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 8, "selected_horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.9941445589065552, "in_band": false, "level": 3.2027049723756944, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.9941445589065552 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.9982100129127502 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.998694121837616 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.998921275138855 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.999210774898529 }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": 0.9992283582687378 } ] } }, "excluded": [ { "target": "diurnal_collapse", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (8, 16, 24, 32, 48, 64)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.027562057599425316 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.016296105459332466 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.013485251925885677 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.012803168967366219 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.013120424933731556 }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": 0.014857789501547813 } ] } ], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. 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They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.47379907965660095, "auroc": 0.6928088537448479, "auprc": 0.6355240140617973, "brier": 0.22171233595840348, "ece": 0.04781920014772668, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2256.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.47379907965660095, "auroc": 0.5466396588827463, "auprc": 0.528644807713139, "brier": 0.3539903940537579, "ece": 0.29691138452785487, "lead_at_far10_hours": 72.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.47379907965660095, "auroc": 0.577570575316679, "auprc": 0.534685350277172, "brier": 0.32567441688695425, "ece": 0.27330744199288465, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2256.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.47379907965660095, "auroc": 0.6838339604198029, "auprc": 0.6177961356088972, "brier": 0.22178398085331005, "ece": 0.02128131779940609, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2160.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6730133564313522, 0.7118077823081791 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.5290120936307272, 0.5638293679922446 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.5606589378890289, 0.5935439934779712 ], "logistic": [ 0.6601686538881952, 0.7024979222032559 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.1468597156912616, "ci95": [ 0.12264437594610914, 0.1734837753346677 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.11578152276743253, "ci95": [ 0.09259776336525063, 0.13837726298032632 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": 0.009143955808206356, "ci95": [ 0.0010350134657298477, 0.01724392946003217 ], "significant": true } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 320, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 82486, "prevalence": 0.49271392822265625, "auroc": 0.6442699273496252, "auprc": 0.6075493937885915, "brier": 0.2347384486047421, "ece": 0.028603232480384877, "lead_at_far10_hours": -1728.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 82486, "prevalence": 0.49271392822265625, "auroc": 0.639844043572415, "auprc": 0.6157489734615125, "brier": 0.3074865403193038, "ece": 0.24735240672954895, "lead_at_far10_hours": 840.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 82486, "prevalence": 0.49271392822265625, "auroc": 0.6250236763115179, "auprc": 0.5816113231087536, "brier": 0.3092710287130273, "ece": 0.25000503935634283, "lead_at_far10_hours": 3024.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 82486, "prevalence": 0.49271392822265625, "auroc": 0.6717793575243336, "auprc": 0.6383075821243966, "brier": 0.22883368066650125, "ece": 0.02710731398243705, "lead_at_far10_hours": -1728.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6282259898827817, 0.660772599351511 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.6218298778839814, 0.6566557923274261 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6087599803410088, 0.6408748955737115 ], "logistic": [ 0.6552438725135571, 0.6879547131995096 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.0042602888883939444, "ci95": [ -0.00661736122656372, 0.01441369552895706 ], "significant": false }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.01947138073743799, "ci95": [ 0.010726631153195337, 0.027726833617725193 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.02734940758401919, "ci95": [ -0.03460313865087806, -0.020080660012396886 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 320, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.37844783067703247, "auroc": 0.7099049565471537, "auprc": 0.6080028938531867, "brier": 0.20405420053841317, "ece": 0.022674112388387103, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2256.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.37844783067703247, "auroc": 0.6025130759110512, "auprc": 0.4840788105970597, "brier": 0.37680930564428045, "ece": 0.35802137765951225, "lead_at_far10_hours": 216.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.37844783067703247, "auroc": 0.6422975967177126, "auprc": 0.4920283533305436, "brier": 0.2673452744033812, "ece": 0.19690840616285435, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2400.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 77440, "prevalence": 0.37844783067703247, "auroc": 0.7060559282729977, "auprc": 0.5941615346779276, "brier": 0.20660969236953122, "ece": 0.029092429163741957, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1512.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6960557576066375, 0.7245601751192029 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.5857633584924495, 0.6159283545576365 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6279362260701187, 0.6541556719960784 ], "logistic": [ 0.6924196326206246, 0.7189137701548752 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.10770792134128424, "ci95": [ 0.08957214481209017, 0.12325740666075181 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.067879818986269, "ci95": [ 0.05398077157074441, 0.07946067240687972 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": 0.004143223856210647, "ci95": [ -0.0035964959572896884, 0.011796423470708379 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 320, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "state": { "ga": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 40300, "auroc": 0.7977551082708715, "prevalence": 0.13985112309455872 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 39990, "auroc": 0.760610297206064, "prevalence": 0.24978744983673096 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 37510, "auroc": 0.6510221565159215, "prevalence": 0.4937083423137665 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 39955, "auroc": 0.658801098547648, "prevalence": 0.5049931406974792 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 37510, "auroc": 0.6850463405223294, "prevalence": 0.3822980523109436 } }, "ny": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 20020, "auroc": 0.8008224034419339, "prevalence": 0.09895104914903641 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 19866, "auroc": 0.7614955894734037, "prevalence": 0.34722641110420227 }, 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"auroc": 0.8100706576597562, "prevalence": 0.16927899420261383 } }, "zero": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 192, "auroc": 0.6033380681818182, "prevalence": 0.0833333358168602 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 189, "auroc": 0.9174436674436675, "prevalence": 0.1746031790971756 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 171, "auroc": 0.7058823529411765, "prevalence": 0.10526315867900848 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 115, "auroc": 0.6582365003417635, "prevalence": 0.6695652008056641 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 171, "auroc": 0.8947841726618705, "prevalence": 0.1871345043182373 } } }, "season": { "autumn": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 960, "auroc": 0.7895996187811134, "prevalence": 0.12187500298023224 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 960, "auroc": 0.6835527403212993, "prevalence": 0.28437501192092896 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 960, "auroc": 0.72999510860704, "prevalence": 0.39791667461395264 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 960, "auroc": 0.7272699594634562, "prevalence": 0.5229166746139526 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 960, "auroc": 0.70187805726098, "prevalence": 0.35104167461395264 } }, "spring": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 29440, "auroc": 0.7732985886629256, "prevalence": 0.11596467345952988 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 29440, "auroc": 0.7699035394759387, "prevalence": 0.308865487575531 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 29440, "auroc": 0.7277219471573948, "prevalence": 0.49493885040283203 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 29408, "auroc": 0.6111116958206548, "prevalence": 0.48701032996177673 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 29440, "auroc": 0.7600412527789753, "prevalence": 0.40312498807907104 } }, "summer": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 24000, "auroc": 0.792489396313234, "prevalence": 0.18000000715255737 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 23360, "auroc": 0.7879315573682497, "prevalence": 0.28116437792778015 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 18240, "auroc": 0.6801414453479683, "prevalence": 0.4345943033695221 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 23341, "auroc": 0.6777169370202367, "prevalence": 0.5950902104377747 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 18240, "auroc": 0.7189481165234965, "prevalence": 0.41003289818763733 } }, "winter": { "flow_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 28800, "auroc": 0.7707992021685477, "prevalence": 0.04642361029982567 }, "discharge_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 28800, "auroc": 0.7346714382050695, "prevalence": 0.23760417103767395 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 28800, "auroc": 0.6706425660187393, "prevalence": 0.4795486032962799 }, "surge_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 28777, "auroc": 0.6572900267850401, "prevalence": 0.4144977033138275 }, "compound_hydrologic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 28800, "auroc": 0.646823231878748, "prevalence": 0.33413195610046387 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "flow_regime_transition", "discharge_regime_shift", "volatility_regime_shift", "compound_hydrologic_stress" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [ "discharge_regime_shift", "volatility_regime_shift" ], "beats_logistic_baseline": true, "collapsed_targets": [], "no_collapsed_heads": true, "calibration_within_bound": true, "worst_ece": 0.04781920014772668, "abstention_helps": false, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "abstention does not improve selective accuracy enough to be useful" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "markets": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "markets", "schema_version": "0.4.0", "schema_hash": "ff0fef09349ea5a3", "entity_kind": "public_market_product", "categories": [ "quiet_drift", "mild_up", "mild_down", "strong_up", "strong_down", "shock_up", "shock_down", "illiquid_session", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "abs_return_bps", "range_bps", "volume_base", "notional_usd" ], "context_dims": [ "quote_currency", "liquidity_tier", "session_direction" ], "targets": [ { "name": "regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 40 }, { "name": "volatility_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 28, "channel": "range_bps", "shift": 0.4 }, { "name": "volume_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 14, "channel": "notional_usd", "shift": 0.6 }, { "name": "dislocation_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 7, "channel": "abs_return_bps", "level": 874.7509583969907, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of abs_return_bps" }, { "name": "compound_market_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 28, "over": [ "volatility_regime_shift", "volume_regime_shift", "dislocation_ahead" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 5, "selected_horizon": 40, "prevalence": 0.4742833077907562, "in_band": false, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 5, "prevalence": 0.5885528922080994 }, { "horizon": 10, "prevalence": 0.5400406718254089 }, { "horizon": 15, "prevalence": 0.5156838893890381 }, { "horizon": 20, "prevalence": 0.4977133870124817 }, { "horizon": 30, "prevalence": 0.4844571650028229 }, { "horizon": 40, "prevalence": 0.4742833077907562 } ] }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "declared_horizon": 7, "selected_horizon": 28, "prevalence": 0.20286549627780914, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 7, "prevalence": 0.2844112515449524 }, { "horizon": 14, "prevalence": 0.22786802053451538 }, { "horizon": 21, "prevalence": 0.2114821970462799 }, { "horizon": 28, "prevalence": 0.20286549627780914 }, { "horizon": 42, "prevalence": 0.2054283171892166 }, { "horizon": 56, "prevalence": 0.20782968401908875 } ] }, "volume_regime_shift": { "declared_horizon": 7, "selected_horizon": 14, "prevalence": 0.3137523829936981, "in_band": false, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 7, "prevalence": 0.3320956528186798 }, { "horizon": 14, "prevalence": 0.3137523829936981 }, { "horizon": 21, "prevalence": 0.31728383898735046 }, { "horizon": 28, "prevalence": 0.32384219765663147 }, { "horizon": 42, "prevalence": 0.3473312556743622 }, { "horizon": 56, "prevalence": 0.36843910813331604 } ] }, "dislocation_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 7, "selected_horizon": 7, "prevalence": 0.3765513002872467, "in_band": false, "level": 874.7509583969907, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 7, "prevalence": 0.3765513002872467 }, { "horizon": 14, "prevalence": 0.5390374064445496 }, { "horizon": 21, "prevalence": 0.6414085626602173 }, { "horizon": 28, "prevalence": 0.7120774984359741 }, { "horizon": 42, "prevalence": 0.8070628643035889 }, { "horizon": 56, "prevalence": 0.8659469485282898 } ] } }, "excluded": [], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "Coinbase Exchange public market data API (no key required)", "source_url": "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com", "licence": "public market data; no attribution required", "windows": [ [ "2024-01-01", "2024-10-01" ], [ "2024-10-01", "2025-07-01" ], [ "2025-07-01", "2026-04-01" ], [ "2026-04-01", "2026-08-20" ] ], "granularity_seconds": 86400, "min_days_per_entity": 200, "products_requested": 406, "n_entities": 357, "n_events": 263312, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T05:30:06Z", "note": "Descriptive public aggregate bars only. Product identifiers are opaque grouping keys and are never used as features." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 145449, "n_val": 38227, "n_test": 52822, "boundary_train_val": 1761350400.0, "boundary_val_test": 1774483200.0, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 26814 }, "features": { "n": 137, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "abs_return_bps_available", "range_bps_available", "volume_base_available", "notional_usd_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__unknown", "source_count_last", "log_confirmations", "censored_horizon", "hour_sin", "hour_cos" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "regime_transition": 0.4721952974796295, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.19814321398735046, "volume_regime_shift": 0.33299216628074646, "dislocation_ahead": 0.37798064947128296, "compound_market_stress": 0.238977313041687 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { 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"statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "seismic": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "seismic", "schema_version": "0.3.0", "schema_hash": "2cd75de68c3480f8", "entity_kind": "opaque_spatial_cell", "categories": [ "micro_shallow", "light_shallow", "moderate_shallow", "strong_event", "intermediate_depth", "deep_focus", "quarry_blast", "other_event", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "magnitude", "depth_km", "azimuthal_gap", "rms_residual" ], "context_dims": [ "network", "magnitude_type", "depth_class" ], "targets": [ { "name": "event_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 4 }, { "name": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "horizon": 32, "factor": 2.0 }, { "name": "significant_event_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 6, "channel": "magnitude", "level": 4.6, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of magnitude" }, { "name": "compound_seismic_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 32, "over": [ "cadence_shift", "significant_event_ahead" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "event_regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 4, "selected_horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.07634221762418747, "in_band": false, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.07634221762418747 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.06724417209625244 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.06361907720565796 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.061134327203035355 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.05923910811543465 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.061163995414972305 } ] }, "cadence_shift": { "declared_horizon": 4, "selected_horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.28494489192962646, "in_band": false, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.40345537662506104 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.3469008207321167 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.31892725825309753 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.30543282628059387 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.2934751808643341 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.28494489192962646 } ] }, "significant_event_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.3442642390727997, "in_band": false, "level": 4.6, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.3442642390727997 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.41409099102020264 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.4442712664604187 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.46078550815582275 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.4779368042945862 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.4901275038719177 } ] } }, "excluded": [ { "target": "magnitude_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.0003955696302000433 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.00039625930367037654 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.0002797426423057914 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.00012184720253571868 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 4.234776133671403e-05 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.0 } ] } ], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "USGS FDSN event web service (public, credential-free)", "quakepulse_earth": { "status": "ok", "entities": 60, "event_days": 19908, "blocked_channels": [], "since": "2023-07-01" }, "source_url": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query", "licence": "USGS public domain; cite USGS Earthquake Hazards Program", "windows": [ [ "2023-01-01", "2023-07-01" ], [ "2023-07-01", "2024-01-01" ], [ "2024-01-01", "2024-07-01" ], [ "2024-07-01", "2025-01-01" ], [ "2025-01-01", "2025-07-01" ], [ "2025-07-01", "2026-01-01" ], [ "2026-01-01", "2026-07-01" ] ], "min_magnitude": 2.0, "cell_size_degrees": 2.0, "min_events_per_entity": 60, "n_entities": 397, "n_events": 138186, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:04:26Z", "note": "Descriptive public event records only. Spatial cells are opaque grouping keys and are never used as features." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 70576, "n_val": 18554, "n_test": 27638, "boundary_train_val": 1739816752.484, "boundary_val_test": 1759825114.424, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 21418 }, "features": { "n": 137, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "magnitude_available", "depth_km_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__unknown", "censored_horizon" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "event_regime_transition": 0.07857025414705276, "cadence_shift": 0.30940645933151245, "significant_event_ahead": 0.30187204480171204, "compound_seismic_stress": 0.08087273687124252 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half", "parameters": [ [ 1.396455405415959, -2.045682796677837 ], [ 1.2918566255276365, -0.9333442083726134 ], [ 1.6785398435630348, -1.0169311924443734 ], [ 1.0363382371606584, -1.9489918256703784 ] ], "per_target": [ { "kind": "affine", "slope": 1.396455405415959, "bias": -2.045682796677837, "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "rejected_piecewise_ece": 0.01653129070401529, "held_out_ece": 0.00845579076912581 }, { "kind": "piecewise", "bias": -9.21024036697585, "knots": [ -4.646589, -0.940842, -0.316374, -0.108991, 0.06298, 0.245516, 0.513188 ], "weights": [ 1.8556257770736522, -0.31200594940256354, 0.27463546001781713, -1.631826080222692, 1.4266451598498444, 0.25184106267607653, 2.7252498008007664 ], "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "held_out_ece": 0.015454309746913584, "affine_held_out_ece": 0.01646552442829081 }, { "kind": "piecewise", "bias": -9.21024036697585, "knots": [ -6.173925, -3.385043, -2.384519, -1.578326, -0.568664, 1.081531, 1.570943 ], "weights": [ 1.6683605992738693, 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They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.3059152066707611, "auroc": 0.7103205775968734, "auprc": 0.4671041532802709, "brier": 0.21016118269630518, "ece": 0.08769406512981825, "lead_at_far10_hours": -1350.7584702777863 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.3059152066707611, "auroc": 0.44654000842242225, "auprc": 0.27011033167118775, "brier": 0.4453038942692935, "ece": 0.42336911516171516, "lead_at_far10_hours": 531.8932130555312 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.3059152066707611, "auroc": 0.4873016718445613, "auprc": 0.31829486783492045, "brier": 0.3603969032732483, "ece": 0.32395628795632314, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1814.0623944444126 }, "logistic": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.3059152066707611, "auroc": 0.725515398924639, "auprc": 0.48978588625651903, "brier": 0.1875524130620826, "ece": 0.04646789596526045, "lead_at_far10_hours": -1347.551666388909 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6661461641984404, 0.761901014814853 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.40257120061057566, 0.4920333168483756 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.4521622724027664, 0.5192459337037895 ], "logistic": [ 0.675475378037873, 0.7798976502769996 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.26190530782532745, "ci95": [ 0.18470065626795107, 0.3449189894685239 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.22132956487220531, "ci95": [ 0.15749096957078101, 0.2943865186733035 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.014548656131137079, "ci95": [ -0.03071148934652411, 0.0008797761170553026 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 172, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 25341, "prevalence": 0.3085513710975647, "auroc": 0.9475336244020799, "auprc": 0.8710869588677181, "brier": 0.07700689963190835, "ece": 0.027875159695801757, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1708.0933988889058 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 25341, "prevalence": 0.3085513710975647, "auroc": 0.5981528397479563, "auprc": 0.4021898367402491, "brier": 0.39300679597061733, "ece": 0.3932568699115833, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2584.4241047222085 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 25341, "prevalence": 0.3085513710975647, "auroc": 0.541291755064603, "auprc": 0.3225622366921008, "brier": 0.3327915323684739, "ece": 0.2709317802058916, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2293.7475865277975 }, "logistic": { "n": 25341, "prevalence": 0.3085513710975647, "auroc": 0.9428782122353074, "auprc": 0.8633519828429658, "brier": 0.07433313698407071, "ece": 0.025963951729182644, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1708.0933988889058 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.933020773969823, 0.9584652889601911 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.5425698473011286, 0.656524875790092 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.48967186519352845, 0.5937075816696571 ], "logistic": [ 0.9295330960261462, 0.9530547514741228 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.34714556511486633, "ci95": [ 0.2971924581707681, 0.4022359042916663 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.4052643507013871, "ci95": [ 0.35849806445221816, 0.4554498278269055 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": 0.004962785845156882, "ci95": [ 0.0013671024169398, 0.008630058119033892 ], "significant": true } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 366, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.07177779078483582, "auroc": 0.9114206904822063, "auprc": 0.477739428092621, "brier": 0.04857102757214863, "ece": 0.027997089171180295, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2146.16290958335 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.07177779078483582, "auroc": 0.45217324943791876, "auprc": 0.06327618323813482, "brier": 0.5268511033929898, "ece": 0.6257984291492433, "lead_at_far10_hours": 82.50349847220713 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.07177779078483582, "auroc": 0.47768025331521363, "auprc": 0.07984403949530083, "brier": 0.3517028182521437, "ece": 0.42309188775495205, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1363.7832847221691 }, "logistic": { "n": 18613, "prevalence": 0.07177779078483582, "auroc": 0.8941922978145116, "auprc": 0.5212323838873753, "brier": 0.044377044301419394, "ece": 0.03808984856755833, "lead_at_far10_hours": 2146.16290958335 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.872417478081465, 0.9361766721932485 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.37820564469466383, 0.5404686061733804 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.4029798120958385, 0.576877135787276 ], "logistic": [ 0.8386089151366998, 0.9255003019283811 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.4525559396624601, "ci95": [ 0.34446910488485494, 0.5418974650665664 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.4261825013314255, "ci95": [ 0.305611967607698, 0.5209261433887958 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": 0.01888016753006301, "ci95": [ 0.0022470207639200134, 0.03825931752410422 ], "significant": true } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 172, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "network": { "ak": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6908, "auroc": 0.8938357962165298, "prevalence": 0.10987260937690735 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 5927, "auroc": 0.5430832554387865, "prevalence": 0.2665766775608063 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 6828, "auroc": 0.6320698589386815, "prevalence": 0.012448740191757679 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 5927, "auroc": 0.6522313064213933, "prevalence": 0.009448287077248096 } }, "av": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 28 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 18 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 28 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 18 } }, "ci": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 723, "auroc": NaN, 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"statement": "Promoted: pre-declared criteria met on a real corpus." } }, "wildfire": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "wildfire", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "cc1cddf8c7ac8333", "entity_kind": "opaque_spatial_cell", "categories": [ "sparse_detection", "cluster_forming", "active_front", "intense_front", "extreme_front", "night_detection", "low_confidence", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "frp_mw", "brightness_k", "detections", "frp_growth" ], "context_dims": [ "region", "daynight", "intensity_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "fire_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 24 }, { "name": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "horizon": 4, "factor": 2.0 }, { "name": "frp_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 48, "channel": "frp_mw", "shift": 0.8, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "cluster_expansion", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 6, "channel": "detections", "shift": 0.7, "min_observations": 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causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "fire_regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 4, "selected_horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.38629797101020813, "in_band": false, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.44592711329460144 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.4029077887535095 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.40239283442497253 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.39242789149284363 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.38629797101020813 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.38991862535476685 } ] }, "cadence_shift": { "declared_horizon": 4, "selected_horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.15694084763526917, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.15694084763526917 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.14598685503005981 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.15433698892593384 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.1536458283662796 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.14960792660713196 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.1555153727531433 } ] }, "frp_regime_shift": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.24459929764270782, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.29774945974349976 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.281754732131958 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.28309857845306396 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.27754849195480347 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.2583170235157013 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.24459929764270782 } ] }, "cluster_expansion": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.16052579879760742, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.16052579879760742 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.1553339958190918 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.15794768929481506 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.15600495040416718 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.13820938766002655 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.14006969332695007 } ] }, "escalation_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.5088627934455872, "in_band": false, "level": 9.498387096774197, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.5088627934455872 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.7324028015136719 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.8205231428146362 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.8642179369926453 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.8916340470314026 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.907665491104126 } ] } }, "excluded": [], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. 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"auroc": 0.5773751874567631, "prevalence": 0.48892101645469666 }, "compound_fire_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "fire_regime_transition", "cadence_shift", "cluster_expansion", "escalation_ahead" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [], "no_collapsed_heads": true, "calibration_within_bound": false, "worst_ece": 0.13678368329116114, "abstention_helps": false, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "worst-target ECE 0.137 exceeds bound", "abstention does not improve selective accuracy enough to be useful" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "spaceweather": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "spaceweather", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "d06f95410a1ddb08", "entity_kind": "opaque_solar_rotation", "categories": [ "quiet", "unsettled", "active", "minor_storm", "moderate_storm", "strong_storm", "severe_storm", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "kp", "ap", "ap_rise", "f107" ], "context_dims": [ "solar_phase", "season", "activity_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "ap_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 48, "channel": "ap", "shift": 0.8, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "storm_onset", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 6, "channel": "kp", "level": 3.333, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of kp" }, { "name": "severe_storm_onset", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "kp", "level": 3.333, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of kp" }, { "name": "compound_geomagnetic_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 48, "over": [ "ap_regime_shift", "storm_onset" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "ap_regime_shift": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.1642405092716217, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.20475594699382782 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.19053763151168823 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.18375499546527863 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.1881759911775589 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.17039215564727783 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.1642405092716217 } ] }, "storm_onset": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.15736337006092072, "in_band": true, "level": 3.333, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.15736337006092072 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.24223655462265015 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.3136262893676758 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.37855178117752075 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.48990195989608765 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.577531635761261 } ] }, "severe_storm_onset": { "declared_horizon": 8, "selected_horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.18927203118801117, "in_band": true, "level": 3.333, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.18927203118801117 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.29152241349220276 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.3787766396999359 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.4547393023967743 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.576602578163147 }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": 0.6694047451019287 } ] } }, "excluded": [ { "target": "activity_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.01815950870513916 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.011597830802202225 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.0051085567101836205 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.003129074349999428 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.0028105168603360653 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.0016101534711197019 } ] }, { "target": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.0 } ] } ], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "GFZ Potsdam Kp/ap/F10.7 (definitive, CC BY 4.0, credential-free)", "source_url": "https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_Ap_SN_F107_since_1932.txt", "licence": "GFZ Kp index, CC BY 4.0 \u2014 cite Matzka et al. (2021)", "cadence": "3-hourly Kp/ap, daily F10.7 broadcast across the day", "since_year": 1932, "n_entities": 300, "n_events": 64768, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:35:39Z", "note": "Externally forced, punctuated activity. Bartels rotation numbers are opaque grouping keys and never enter the feature space." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 38813, "n_val": 12905, "n_test": 12954, "boundary_train_val": 1508157360.0, "boundary_val_test": 1648054080.0, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 96 }, "features": { "n": 135, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "kp_available", "ap_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__unknown", "source_count_last", "log_confirmations", "censored_horizon" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "ap_regime_shift": 0.2074185162782669, "storm_onset": 0.23068970441818237, "severe_storm_onset": 0.2688708007335663, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": 0.06399674713611603 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half", 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They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11988, "prevalence": 0.3254087567329407, "auroc": 0.7319841101261414, "auprc": 0.6290644705167241, "brier": 0.18546162521305418, "ece": 0.06325471762836832, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22896.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11988, "prevalence": 0.3254087567329407, "auroc": 0.49785620913706735, "auprc": 0.3375189745570625, "brier": 0.5231972616713894, "ece": 0.5308981240161494, "lead_at_far10_hours": 23022.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11988, "prevalence": 0.3254087567329407, "auroc": 0.6265155019019484, "auprc": 0.4556890767898047, "brier": 0.25679563881303824, "ece": 0.18713698283170982, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22950.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11988, "prevalence": 0.3254087567329407, "auroc": 0.784736371351453, "auprc": 0.6859370018204178, "brier": 0.16460599111883295, "ece": 0.01784320305394574, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22896.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.7074301161269316, 0.7551851649950804 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.4622224064781555, 0.5283861217634452 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6035402429488526, 0.6448036498325778 ], "logistic": [ 0.766327677817083, 0.8027231107845366 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.2360404208575914, "ci95": [ 0.20131101952183855, 0.27156394116840166 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.10481974551141861, "ci95": [ 0.07999892746093938, 0.13224877429592446 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.05286283170807199, "ci95": [ -0.06863490249548213, -0.037835151216749026 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 61, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11746, "prevalence": 0.3733185827732086, "auroc": 0.6905382414670557, "auprc": 0.6239868101999995, "brier": 0.20739928310993577, "ece": 0.06121511745012915, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22662.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11746, "prevalence": 0.3733185827732086, "auroc": 0.49666585445157124, "auprc": 0.3863857666492877, "brier": 0.4903277609826565, "ece": 0.4831995336258269, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22785.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11746, "prevalence": 0.3733185827732086, "auroc": 0.6110459497394276, "auprc": 0.4923227610840128, "brier": 0.267144949074911, "ece": 0.18635224584439586, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22710.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11746, "prevalence": 0.3733185827732086, "auroc": 0.7612099702010519, "auprc": 0.6966335294044524, "brier": 0.1831641413307924, "ece": 0.025239037802897393, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22662.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6628603038113553, 0.7155731262510046 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.4626789051033659, 0.5278328377380881 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.5901393379885405, 0.628255793060903 ], "logistic": [ 0.7389046660790738, 0.7815032595021895 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.1959352127103046, "ci95": [ 0.16226085511865893, 0.23390934945448158 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.07886474056283696, "ci95": [ 0.05277854103989128, 0.10727916286519543 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.07073713652468323, "ci95": [ -0.08923805574800825, -0.05183305212306641 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 61, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 9328, "prevalence": 0.0820111483335495, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.07045527564467169, "brier": 0.082011149228115, "ece": 0.08201114847963652, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24210.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 9328, "prevalence": 0.0820111483335495, "auroc": 0.5621974462251715, "auprc": 0.15251622738829504, "brier": 0.7060887640620237, "ece": 0.7788383400496284, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24210.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 9328, "prevalence": 0.0820111483335495, "auroc": 0.6111473668061175, "auprc": 0.11909126393672231, "brier": 0.25905590705909953, "ece": 0.3465985728819839, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24210.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 9328, "prevalence": 0.0820111483335495, "auroc": 0.7737650737822476, "auprc": 0.3142030545561256, "brier": 0.06641575061017126, "ece": 0.01864978458794504, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24210.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.5013043479053909, 0.6235972332018338 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.5779600930253628, 0.6473202633226324 ], "logistic": [ 0.7313304212933378, 0.8129081322385838 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": -0.06361333750784656, "ci95": [ -0.1235972332018338, -0.0013043479053909265 ], "significant": false }, "ewma_z": { "mean": -0.11017035942069858, "ci95": [ -0.14732026332263237, -0.07796009302536283 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.27360574770266427, "ci95": [ -0.3129081322385838, -0.2313304212933378 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 60, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "solar_phase": { "active": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 5018, "auroc": 0.6865240431110978, "prevalence": 0.1988840103149414 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6408, "auroc": 0.7169660744636914, "prevalence": 0.31913232803344727 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6284, "auroc": 0.6704607518371511, "prevalence": 0.3671228587627411 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 4956, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.08171913027763367 } }, "maximum": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3790, "auroc": 0.7129422381693615, "prevalence": 0.19050131738185883 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4800, "auroc": 0.7498701070639219, "prevalence": 0.3310416638851166 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4700, "auroc": 0.7158779806948509, "prevalence": 0.37978723645210266 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3740, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.08449197560548782 } }, "rising": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 616, "auroc": 0.9263545740184, "prevalence": 0.13474026322364807 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 756, "auroc": 0.7506739277363019, "prevalence": 0.34259259700775146 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 738, "auroc": 0.7008636381240075, "prevalence": 0.3861788511276245 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 608, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.05921052768826485 } }, "unknown": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 } } }, "season": { "autumn": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2140, "auroc": 0.6510772977757537, "prevalence": 0.2668224275112152 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2688, "auroc": 0.7563241133550281, "prevalence": 0.3753720223903656 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2632, "auroc": 0.7208665633282847, "prevalence": 0.4224924147129059 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2112, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.10700757801532745 } }, "spring": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2554, "auroc": 0.7614482844921733, "prevalence": 0.16053250432014465 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3244, "auroc": 0.7194402264013295, "prevalence": 0.3652897775173187 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3182, "auroc": 0.6774564158265619, "prevalence": 0.418290376663208 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2524, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06814579665660858 } }, "summer": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2670, "auroc": 0.7590733478576616, "prevalence": 0.1404494345188141 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3392, "auroc": 0.7088204460584466, "prevalence": 0.2556014060974121 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3324, "auroc": 0.6635047284511868, "prevalence": 0.29933813214302063 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2636, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.07549317181110382 } }, "winter": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2084, "auroc": 0.6281197465407992, "prevalence": 0.21880997717380524 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2664, "auroc": 0.7439294851712615, "prevalence": 0.315315306186676 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2608, "auroc": 0.7059429727387796, "prevalence": 0.36311349272727966 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2056, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.08171205967664719 } } }, "activity_band": { "extreme": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 127, "auroc": 0.7058990357345434, "prevalence": 0.32283464074134827 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 155, "auroc": 0.7922077922077922, "prevalence": 0.9935483932495117 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 151, "auroc": 0.8333333333333334, "prevalence": 0.9933775067329407 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 125, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.328000009059906 } }, "high": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 523, "auroc": 0.6943212613944322, "prevalence": 0.29445508122444153 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 697, "auroc": 0.5911871961102106, "prevalence": 0.8852223753929138 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 674, "auroc": 0.5814588573481854, "prevalence": 0.8976261019706726 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 516, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.2538759708404541 } }, "low": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 5539, "auroc": 0.688270272991761, "prevalence": 0.1491243839263916 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6974, "auroc": 0.570613764584555, "prevalence": 0.16575853526592255 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6853, "auroc": 0.531529400241847, "prevalence": 0.2164015769958496 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 5472, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.03417397662997246 } }, "medium": { "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3259, "auroc": 0.7084425270516979, "prevalence": 0.24271248281002045 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4162, "auroc": 0.6028996238115613, "prevalence": 0.47429120540618896 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4068, "auroc": 0.5768171124581665, "prevalence": 0.5277777910232544 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3215, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.12628304958343506 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "ap_regime_shift", "storm_onset", "severe_storm_onset" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [ "compound_geomagnetic_stress" ], "no_collapsed_heads": false, "calibration_within_bound": true, "worst_ece": 0.08460442632775922, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "1 head(s) sit within 0.005 AUROC of chance (compound_geomagnetic_stress) \u2014 a collapsed head is a defect and blocks promotion" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "celo": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "celo", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c", "entity_kind": "opaque_block_range", "categories": [ "idle_block", "light_block", "normal_block", "busy_block", "saturated_block", "slow_block", "burst_block", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "tx_count", "gas_ratio", "block_interval_s", "base_fee_gwei" ], "context_dims": [ "chain", "utilisation_band", "hour_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "block_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 10 }, { "name": "congestion_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "gas_ratio", "level": 0.17303338666666668, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of gas_ratio" } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "block_regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 5, "selected_horizon": 10, "prevalence": 0.17083333432674408, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 5, "prevalence": 0.20357142388820648 }, { "horizon": 10, "prevalence": 0.17083333432674408 }, { "horizon": 15, "prevalence": 0.19583334028720856 }, { "horizon": 20, "prevalence": 0.17604166269302368 }, { "horizon": 30, "prevalence": 0.20416666567325592 }, { "horizon": 40, "prevalence": NaN } ] }, "congestion_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 8, "selected_horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.40486112236976624, "in_band": false, "level": 0.17303338666666668, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.40486112236976624 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.5445075631141663 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.5922619104385376 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.6354166865348816 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": NaN }, { "horizon": 64, "prevalence": NaN } ] } }, "excluded": [ { "target": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 5, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 10, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 15, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 20, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 30, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 40, "prevalence": NaN } ] }, { "target": "demand_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.0234375 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.013621794991195202 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.008333333767950535 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.0059523810632526875 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": NaN } ] }, { "target": "fee_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.0 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": NaN } ] }, { "target": "compound_chain_stress", "kind": "compound", "reason": "only 1 of its 2 required component targets survived selection", "prevalence_curve": [] } ], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "Celo public JSON-RPC block sampling (credential-free)", "source_url": "https://forno.celo.org", "licence": "public chain state; no third-party terms", "sampling": "30000 blocks at stride 120 back from head", "median_seconds_per_block": 1.0, "n_entities": 240, "n_events": 12000, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:49:29Z", "note": "Chain-level operational behaviour only. No price target, no address identity: block ranges are opaque grouping keys. Protocol-level state is a follow-up on the general onchain pack." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 7200, "n_val": 2400, "n_test": 2400, "boundary_train_val": 1787409889.0, "boundary_val_test": 1787697865.0, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 0 }, "features": { "n": 135, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "tx_count_available", "gas_ratio_available", "base_fee_gwei_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__idle_block", "cat_last__saturated_block", "cat_last__slow_block", "cat_last__burst_block", "cat_last__unknown", "source_count_last", "log_confirmations", "censored_horizon", "resid_seasonal_naive" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "block_regime_transition": 0.20319443941116333, "congestion_ahead": 0.44013887643814087 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half", "parameters": [ [ 455.6066930670885, -471636.11245517165 ], [ 818.9083427677529, -482946.4556867477 ] ], "per_target": [ { "kind": "piecewise", "bias": -9.21024036697585, "knots": [ -9.060244, -5.149886, -4.598976, -4.084554, -2.810535, -0.692872, 1.499516 ], "weights": [ 1.2067434609097425, -1.2067434609097425, 2.5858044730361134, -1.308495145541304, -0.97259079608433, -0.07029572344846055, 2.3646832171564385 ], "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "held_out_ece": 0.0647178290861371, "affine_held_out_ece": 0.1680555555555119 }, { "kind": "piecewise", "bias": -2.8526314299133175, "knots": [ -6.641004, -4.946359, -4.214787, -2.470159, -0.420007, 1.43704, 3.566145 ], "weights": [ 0.19817213419292168, 0.9538998149689959, -0.17882240928398474, -0.9732495398779328, 0.0050372745445351865, 0.270056151161868, 0.29416296998564573 ], "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "held_out_ece": 0.07995994155890956, "affine_held_out_ece": 0.5999999999999066 } ], "piecewise_targets": [ "block_regime_transition", "congestion_ahead" ] }, "excluded_targets": [], "abstention": { "threshold": 0.9149428226570102, "coverage": 0.8, "selective_accuracy": 0.6026041666666667, "base_accuracy": 0.4820833333333333, "curve": [ { "coverage": 0.5, "threshold": 0.301981018985204, "selective_accuracy": 0.755 }, { "coverage": 0.6, "threshold": 0.679643527252549, "selective_accuracy": 0.7534722222222222 }, { "coverage": 0.7, "threshold": 0.8980755135559254, "selective_accuracy": 0.6886904761904762 }, { "coverage": 0.8, "threshold": 0.9149428226570102, "selective_accuracy": 0.6026041666666667 }, { "coverage": 0.9, "threshold": 0.9315249028632365, "selective_accuracy": 0.5356481481481481 }, { "coverage": 1.0, "threshold": 0.9562596619034561, "selective_accuracy": 0.4820833333333333 } ], "fit_split": "validation", "evaluation_split": "test", "test_coverage": 0.7941666666666667, "test_base_accuracy": 0.48541666666666666, "test_selective_accuracy": 0.6112277019937041, "test_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.12581103532703747 }, "evaluation": { "version": "surprise-eval/0.3.0", "domain_id": "celo", "schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c", "targets": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.20694445073604584, "auroc": 0.8287738454847847, "auprc": 0.5093687486058867, "brier": 0.1359725336360697, "ece": 0.06456675400619105, "lead_at_far10_hours": 28.816666666666666 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.20694445073604584, "auroc": 0.749925069641157, "auprc": 0.3731517890309364, "brier": 0.4392406333164226, "ece": 0.5403015710207664, "lead_at_far10_hours": 30.45 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.20694445073604584, "auroc": 0.7463122509667486, "auprc": 0.3208948137001457, "brier": 0.16405010247006652, "ece": 0.0997262974506625, "lead_at_far10_hours": 34.583333333333336 }, "logistic": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.20694445073604584, "auroc": 0.8120335217856345, "auprc": 0.40179513358402447, "brier": 0.13398752803869765, "ece": 0.07968158322385738, "lead_at_far10_hours": 28.8 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.7657732025508002, 0.8836641460961243 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.6764611619078913, 0.8242839447364957 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6812364638899271, 0.8082570340681906 ], "logistic": [ 0.7281527598913989, 0.8881794877068144 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.07665228882212914, "ci95": [ 0.010642411099388155, 0.13782237165585115 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.08203585414830397, "ci95": [ 0.02980412069269538, 0.13939621195667246 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": 0.015139572970917732, "ci95": [ -0.042249982588154066, 0.0845319993352127 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 48, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.4159722328186035, "auroc": 0.8115974106666084, "auprc": 0.7434835586542539, "brier": 0.1762551579153642, "ece": 0.0607021870047358, "lead_at_far10_hours": 36.46666666666667 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.4159722328186035, "auroc": 0.7111872939242773, "auprc": 0.5722291711756697, "brier": 0.32238985310837037, "ece": 0.3329834100606967, "lead_at_far10_hours": 32.31666666666666 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.4159722328186035, "auroc": 0.7240386772246252, "auprc": 0.5558250785272174, "brier": 0.2628168802828783, "ece": 0.2262332647222245, "lead_at_far10_hours": 36.266666666666666 }, "logistic": { "n": 1440, "prevalence": 0.4159722328186035, "auroc": 0.8420554272975768, "auprc": 0.7930793146487176, "brier": 0.16513804460816478, "ece": 0.07222152819365675, "lead_at_far10_hours": 31.733333333333334 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.7452846489962998, 0.8744928338127343 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.636441769933102, 0.7923515247926093 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6549589599800534, 0.7999541632315191 ], "logistic": [ 0.7686509297621821, 0.9029495929705261 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.0998746356765293, "ci95": [ 0.0418023925043983, 0.1559200386768609 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.08729749002275443, "ci95": [ 0.03686644589478889, 0.13702654982945417 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.02681687829286723, "ci95": [ -0.06228034112133337, 0.007451386487183005 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 48, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "chain": { "celo": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 1440, "auroc": 0.8287738454847847, "prevalence": 0.20694445073604584 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 1440, "auroc": 0.8115974106666084, "prevalence": 0.4159722328186035 } } }, "utilisation_band": { "high": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 12 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 10 } }, "low": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 1018, "auroc": 0.8627170317895468, "prevalence": 0.13850687444210052 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 1025, "auroc": 0.8132460363756672, "prevalence": 0.3229268193244934 } }, "medium": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 410, "auroc": 0.6874952795750359, "prevalence": 0.3829268217086792 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 405, "auroc": 0.703355795148248, "prevalence": 0.654321014881134 } } }, "hour_band": { "utc_afternoon": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 320, "auroc": 0.6791224877354012, "prevalence": 0.4437499940395355 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 320, "auroc": 0.6842589331141639, "prevalence": 0.4781250059604645 } }, "utc_evening": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 350, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 350, "auroc": 0.702034303948943, "prevalence": 0.0657142847776413 } }, "utc_morning": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 343, "auroc": 0.6085875210299173, "prevalence": 0.36734694242477417 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 345, "auroc": 0.598879804629433, "prevalence": 0.8028985261917114 } }, "utc_night": { "block_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 427, "auroc": 0.8811083123425693, "prevalence": 0.07025761157274246 }, "congestion_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 425, "auroc": 0.583971620759071, "prevalence": 0.3435294032096863 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "block_regime_transition", "congestion_ahead" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [], "no_collapsed_heads": true, "calibration_within_bound": true, "worst_ece": 0.06456675400619105, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "macro": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "macro", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "a483c38e354bd308", "entity_kind": "opaque_series", "categories": [ "stable_print", "mild_move", "notable_move", "large_move", "shock_print", "revision", "stale_print", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "level", "abs_change", "z_change", "days_since_prev" ], "context_dims": [ "family", "cadence", "move_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "print_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 4 }, { "name": "shock_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 6, "channel": "z_change", "level": 1.4704358187934363, "direction": "above", "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of z_change" } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "horizon_selection": { "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0", "band": [ 0.08, 0.25 ], "min_prevalence": 0.05, "level_quantile": 0.9, "selected": { "print_regime_transition": { "declared_horizon": 4, "selected_horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.12220495939254761, "in_band": true, "level": null, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.12220495939254761 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.09200801700353622 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.07721874862909317 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.06795667111873627 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.058708369731903076 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.053314823657274246 } ] }, "shock_ahead": { "declared_horizon": 6, "selected_horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.4313455820083618, "in_band": false, "level": 1.4704358187934363, "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.4313455820083618 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.5995871424674988 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.6955165266990662 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.758023738861084 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.8357165455818176 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.877090334892273 } ] } }, "excluded": [ { "target": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 4, "prevalence": 0.0024317624047398567 }, { "horizon": 8, "prevalence": 0.0007236319361254573 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.00043894510599784553 }, { "horizon": 16, "prevalence": 0.000332190451445058 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.0002728966064751148 }, { "horizon": 32, "prevalence": 0.0001898591435747221 } ] }, { "target": "volatility_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.027699023485183716 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.023584401234984398 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.021426791325211525 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.021404586732387543 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.021372035145759583 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.021481893956661224 } ] }, { "target": "level_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)", "prevalence_curve": [ { "horizon": 6, "prevalence": 0.017022740095853806 }, { "horizon": 12, "prevalence": 0.019052591174840927 }, { "horizon": 18, "prevalence": 0.022221695631742477 }, { "horizon": 24, "prevalence": 0.024952244013547897 }, { "horizon": 36, "prevalence": 0.02974996715784073 }, { "horizon": 48, "prevalence": 0.03552227094769478 } ] }, { "target": "compound_macro_stress", "kind": "compound", "reason": "only 1 of its 2 required component targets survived selection", "prevalence_curve": [] } ], "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) observations API", "source_url": "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations", "licence": "FRED terms of use; series carry their originating agency's terms", "series": [ "DGS10", "DGS2", "DGS3MO", "T10Y2Y", "BAMLH0A0HYM2", "BAMLC0A0CM", "ICSA", "CCSA", "UNRATE", "PAYEMS", "CPIAUCSL", "PCEPI", "FEDFUNDS", "SOFR", "M2SL", "INDPRO", "HOUST", "UMCSENT", "VIXCLS", "DTWEXBGS", "DCOILWTICO", "TEDRATE", "NFCI", "STLFSI4", "DGS1", "DGS5", "DGS30", "DGS1MO", "DGS20", "DFII10", "T10YIE", "T5YIE", "DAAA", "DBAA", "MORTGAGE30US", "DPRIME", "BAMLH0A3HYC", "BAMLC0A4CBBB", "BAMLEMCBPIOAS", "T10Y3M", "TB3MS", "CIVPART", "EMRATIO", "U6RATE", "JTSJOL", "AHETPI", "AWHAETP", "CPILFESL", "PPIACO", "PCEPILFE", "MICH", "WM2NS", "WALCL", "TOTRESNS", "BUSLOANS", "TOTALSL", "REALLN", "IPMAN", "TCU", "RSAFS", "DGORDER", "PERMIT", "HSN1F", "CSUSHPINSA", "DEXUSEU", "DEXJPUS", "DEXCHUS", "DTWEXAFEGS", "DCOILBRENTEU", "DHHNGSP", "NASDAQCOM", "DJIA", "SP500", "VXVCLS", "OVXCLS", "GVZCLS", "DFF", "RRPONTSYD", "WRESBAL", "EXPINF1YR", "DGS7", "DFII5", "DFII30", "DLTIIT", "T5YIFR", "DTB3", "DTB6", "DTB1YR", "DCPN3M", "DCPF3M", "WGS10YR", "WGS1YR", "WGS3MO", "AAA", "BAA", "AAA10Y", "BAA10Y", "BAMLH0A1HYBB", "BAMLH0A2HYB", "BAMLC0A1CAAA", "BAMLC0A2CAA", "BAMLC0A3CA", "BAMLEM1BRRAAA2ACRPIOAS", "MORTGAGE15US", "OBMMIC30YF", "TOTCI", "CONSUMER", "H8B1058NCBCMG", "NONREVSL", "REVOLSL", "IPMANSICS", "IPUTIL", "IPMINE", "IPDCONGD", "IPNCONGD", "IPBUSEQ", "MCUMFN", "AMTMNO", "AMTMUO", "AMTMTI", "BUSINV", "ISRATIO", "RETAILIRSA", "RSXFS", "MRTSSM44000USS", "TOTALSA", "ALTSALES", "HOUST1F", "COMPUTSA", "MSACSR", "CES0500000003", "AWHMAN", "CES9091000001", "USCONS", "MANEMP", "USTRADE", "SRVPRD", "LNS12032194", "UEMPMEAN", "UEMP15OV", "LNS13023621", "JTSHIR", "JTSTSR", "JTSQUR", "JTSLDR", "CPIENGSL", "CPIMEDSL", "CPIUFDSL", "CUSR0000SEHA", "CUSR0000SAS", "PPIFIS", "WPU0911", "PPICMM", "DEXCAUS", "DEXMXUS", "DEXKOUS", "DEXBZUS", "DEXINUS", "DEXSFUS", "DEXUSUK", "DEXUSAL", "DEXNOUS", "DEXSDUS", "DEXSZUS", "DEXTHUS", "DTWEXEMEGS", "IQ12260", "DPROPANEMBTX", "DHOILNYH", "GASREGW", "WTISPLC", "NIKKEI225", "VXNCLS", "VXDCLS", "RVXCLS", "EVZCLS", "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS", "BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS", "ANFCI", "KCFSI", "CFNAI", "SAHMREALTIME", "RECPROUSM156N", "T3MFF", "T1YFF", "T5YFF", "AAAFF", "BAAFF", "TREAST", "SWPT", "RESPPANWW", "PSAVERT", "DSPIC96", "PCEC96", "PCEDG", "PCEND", "PCES", "DGDSRC1" ], "start": "2005-01-01", "n_entities": 198, "n_events": 428889, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:53:05Z", "note": "Mixed-cadence, policy-driven series. Observation spacing is an explicit channel because irregular release timing is signal here." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 256159, "n_val": 84673, "n_test": 85843, "boundary_train_val": 1533513600.0, "boundary_val_test": 1667174400.0, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 2214 }, "features": { "n": 135, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "level_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__revision", "source_count_last", "log_confirmations", "censored_horizon", "hour_sin", "hour_cos" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "print_regime_transition": 0.100306436419487, "shock_ahead": 0.4205077886581421 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half", "parameters": [ [ 1.9740880955539448, -2.0529808039680155 ], [ 2.0339780421049554, -0.8156153936861372 ] ], "per_target": [ { "kind": "affine", "slope": 1.9740880955539448, "bias": -2.0529808039680155, "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "rejected_piecewise_ece": 0.03727350716123905, "held_out_ece": 0.008507900585224437 }, { "kind": "affine", "slope": 2.0339780421049554, "bias": -0.8156153936861372, "selected_on": "held-out half of validation", "rejected_piecewise_ece": 0.01685574187310224, "held_out_ece": 0.009733608905422715 } ], "piecewise_targets": [] }, "excluded_targets": [], "abstention": { "threshold": 0.3025248305740764, "coverage": 0.7999952759439255, "selective_accuracy": 0.818868286633795, "base_accuracy": 0.7932162554769525, "curve": [ { "coverage": 0.5000059050700932, "threshold": 0.21689635795987755, "selective_accuracy": 0.8724165623449938 }, { "coverage": 0.6000023620280373, "threshold": 0.24980901426233104, "selective_accuracy": 0.8516553814660263 }, { "coverage": 0.6999988189859814, "threshold": 0.27940200839969814, "selective_accuracy": 0.8336792023080427 }, { "coverage": 0.7999952759439255, "threshold": 0.3025248305740764, "selective_accuracy": 0.818868286633795 }, { "coverage": 0.8999917329018695, "threshold": 0.3241569929061583, "selective_accuracy": 0.8061413293091004 }, { "coverage": 1.0, "threshold": 0.850404292950724, "selective_accuracy": 0.7932162554769525 } ], "fit_split": "validation", "evaluation_split": "test", "test_coverage": 0.7712684785014503, "test_base_accuracy": 0.7766503966543574, "test_selective_accuracy": 0.8053634001933301, "test_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02871300353897266 }, "evaluation": { "version": "surprise-eval/0.3.0", "domain_id": "macro", "schema_hash": "a483c38e354bd308", "targets": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 84951, "prevalence": 0.113889180123806, "auroc": 0.8289485363972553, "auprc": 0.41263261269148527, "brier": 0.08202253998358924, "ece": 0.014604037106580897, "lead_at_far10_hours": 13320.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 84951, "prevalence": 0.113889180123806, "auroc": 0.6399013861547644, "auprc": 0.17896174022288136, "brier": 0.5559567613476718, "ece": 0.645110028148534, "lead_at_far10_hours": -2736.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 84951, "prevalence": 0.113889180123806, "auroc": 0.6854407401777822, "auprc": 0.2034201848438989, "brier": 0.2705135938477796, "ece": 0.32712615100403963, "lead_at_far10_hours": 13320.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 84951, "prevalence": 0.113889180123806, "auroc": 0.8311126434565759, "auprc": 0.4230041123033228, "brier": 0.0813141045269671, "ece": 0.021392427067989744, "lead_at_far10_hours": 13320.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.8076011883553355, 0.8470248378109344 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.6184994333839423, 0.6617179266541874 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6652464749947433, 0.7058483192183794 ], "logistic": [ 0.8107566791109517, 0.8497743294617534 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.1883283092688536, "ci95": [ 0.17115498391292297, 0.20756559328484636 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.14265010573729484, "ci95": [ 0.12509981202339607, 0.16078856552223095 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.0021733942434618582, "ci95": [ -0.005770627937924244, 0.00098030063786917 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 197, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 84531, "prevalence": 0.45744165778160095, "auroc": 0.7361533515288328, "auprc": 0.6992755223455545, "brier": 0.20675381722787103, "ece": 0.02013764593156305, "lead_at_far10_hours": 15336.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 84531, "prevalence": 0.45744165778160095, "auroc": 0.6122186458930859, "auprc": 0.5545416857423872, "brier": 0.3523427570412595, "ece": 0.3181787597831851, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1440.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 84531, "prevalence": 0.45744165778160095, "auroc": 0.6310213761386996, "auprc": 0.5603746434577102, "brier": 0.28310427456263126, "ece": 0.1978420732198249, "lead_at_far10_hours": 15312.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 84531, "prevalence": 0.45744165778160095, "auroc": 0.7383922498312034, "auprc": 0.7036082027191621, "brier": 0.20560712838115963, "ece": 0.012840046480465033, "lead_at_far10_hours": 14592.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.7103234235719253, 0.7612938400832607 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.5872165047880575, 0.6393937717924926 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6089215810898715, 0.6585190474533164 ], "logistic": [ 0.7134217947905168, 0.763046734462432 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.12362882614780311, "ci95": [ 0.10498876088369093, 0.14315633016157117 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.10481310251846948, "ci95": [ 0.08721446503590873, 0.12021427027810966 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.0021949322878217687, "ci95": [ -0.005482239536715605, 0.0017624781612428232 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 197, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "family": { "activity": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 409, "auroc": 0.6536382068033341, "prevalence": 0.05623471736907959 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 389, "auroc": 0.4707637550845643, "prevalence": 0.5552698969841003 } }, "credit": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6286, "auroc": 0.8034606077000118, "prevalence": 0.05138402804732323 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 6252, "auroc": 0.6611304011552555, "prevalence": 0.3387715816497803 } }, "labour": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 712, "auroc": 0.907132768361582, "prevalence": 0.00561797758564353 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 692, "auroc": 0.6005564387917329, "prevalence": 0.21387283504009247 } }, "money": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6363, "auroc": 0.8113912068286154, "prevalence": 0.14945779740810394 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 6341, "auroc": 0.7377482213891337, "prevalence": 0.5150607228279114 } }, "other": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 45349, "auroc": 0.81339411547867, "prevalence": 0.11283600330352783 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 45097, "auroc": 0.724953397177538, "prevalence": 0.45546266436576843 } }, "prices": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 5048, "auroc": 0.866975774612299, "prevalence": 0.10400158166885376 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 5024, "auroc": 0.7036238127966343, "prevalence": 0.4321258068084717 } }, "rates": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 14068, "auroc": 0.844308203192141, "prevalence": 0.10754904896020889 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 14034, "auroc": 0.7753242586114952, "prevalence": 0.44677212834358215 } }, "volatility": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6716, "auroc": 0.8238479098823834, "prevalence": 0.18150684237480164 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 6702, "auroc": 0.7479504444222088, "prevalence": 0.5877349972724915 } } }, "cadence": { "daily": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 60601, "auroc": 0.8294647664739362, "prevalence": 0.11245688796043396 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 60447, "auroc": 0.7394119280262549, "prevalence": 0.4604198634624481 } }, "monthly": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 3846, "auroc": 0.7646895291360837, "prevalence": 0.10088403522968292 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 3658, "auroc": 0.667717708258334, "prevalence": 0.4702022969722748 } }, "sparse": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 18 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 18 } }, "unknown": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 } }, "weekly": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 20486, "auroc": 0.8367304461686218, "prevalence": 0.12066777050495148 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 20408, "auroc": 0.7418635655010974, "prevalence": 0.44624656438827515 } } }, "move_band": { "large": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 13472, "auroc": 0.7606798592625773, "prevalence": 0.1903206706047058 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 13411, "auroc": 0.6717403900560253, "prevalence": 0.602043092250824 } }, "normal": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 34753, "auroc": 0.7923992511742995, "prevalence": 0.09075475484132767 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 34544, "auroc": 0.7057978932803942, "prevalence": 0.4454898238182068 } }, "quiet": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 30943, "auroc": 0.8358260137287571, "prevalence": 0.05781598389148712 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 30810, "auroc": 0.7222106051293284, "prevalence": 0.35300227999687195 } }, "shock": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 5783, "auroc": 0.6982765154415029, "prevalence": 0.3748919367790222 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 5766, "auroc": 0.7114648774356499, "prevalence": 0.750780463218689 } }, "unknown": { "print_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "shock_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "print_regime_transition", "shock_ahead" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [], "no_collapsed_heads": true, "calibration_within_bound": true, "worst_ece": 0.02013764593156305, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } } }, "real_corpus_domains": [ "climate", "hydrology", "markets", "seismic", "wildfire", "spaceweather", "celo", "macro" ], "shared_vs_single_domain": {}, "leave_one_domain_out": { "climate": { "transfer_auroc": { "weather_regime_transition": 0.8168443957770669, "anomaly_regime_shift": 0.7810185884393855, "heat_extreme_ahead": 0.8578980559029216, "cold_extreme_ahead": 0.879080462145214, "compound_climate_stress": 0.8242645660461557 }, "joint_auroc": { "weather_regime_transition": 0.8244089820520246, "anomaly_regime_shift": 0.7827657857490328, "heat_extreme_ahead": 0.8553627526874936, "cold_extreme_ahead": 0.8904805475537743, "compound_climate_stress": 0.8286285842970172 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "hydrology": { "transfer_auroc": { "flow_regime_transition": 0.820565599252975, "discharge_regime_shift": 0.7492856129091741, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.6747854403054595, "surge_ahead": 0.6431649216764365, "compound_hydrologic_stress": 0.7070801122024132 }, "joint_auroc": { "flow_regime_transition": 0.8021500549240848, "discharge_regime_shift": 0.7636129599217235, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.6928088537448479, "surge_ahead": 0.6442699273496252, "compound_hydrologic_stress": 0.7099049565471537 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "markets": { "transfer_auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.5752049205450327, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.5752204967141528, "volume_regime_shift": 0.6406347042217173, "dislocation_ahead": 0.6935384177406069, "compound_market_stress": 0.6405333554085666 }, "joint_auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.6460028634015175, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.6218132721782326, "volume_regime_shift": 0.6388356983561869, "dislocation_ahead": 0.6823474461307636, "compound_market_stress": 0.6608734857218778 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "seismic": { "transfer_auroc": { "event_regime_transition": 0.8946314799249386, "cadence_shift": 0.7153783335050281, "significant_event_ahead": 0.9468611830742691, "compound_seismic_stress": 0.9147440489744595 }, "joint_auroc": { "event_regime_transition": 0.9006133800349387, "cadence_shift": 0.7103205775968734, "significant_event_ahead": 0.9475336244020799, "compound_seismic_stress": 0.9114206904822063 }, "gate": "promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "wildfire": { "transfer_auroc": { "fire_regime_transition": 0.7475212477818249, "cadence_shift": 0.7675049226217615, "frp_regime_shift": null, "cluster_expansion": 0.776759225110014, "escalation_ahead": 0.6611600202915536, "compound_fire_stress": null }, "joint_auroc": { "fire_regime_transition": 0.753785374054357, "cadence_shift": 0.6263267187366233, "frp_regime_shift": null, "cluster_expansion": 0.7026418370384853, "escalation_ahead": 0.6112157626452699, "compound_fire_stress": null }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "spaceweather": { "transfer_auroc": { "ap_regime_shift": 0.7102250421206855, "storm_onset": 0.7520402402899485, "severe_storm_onset": 0.7371317013747916, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": 0.7396635013536732 }, "joint_auroc": { "ap_regime_shift": 0.7060699608107062, "storm_onset": 0.7319841101261414, "severe_storm_onset": 0.6905382414670557, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": 0.5 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "celo": { "transfer_auroc": { "block_regime_transition": 0.8089452156231267, "congestion_ahead": 0.814706039991345 }, "joint_auroc": { "block_regime_transition": 0.8287738454847847, "congestion_ahead": 0.8115974106666084 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" }, "macro": { "transfer_auroc": { "print_regime_transition": 0.8278717005313642, "shock_ahead": 0.7269032590397267 }, "joint_auroc": { "print_regime_transition": 0.8289485363972553, "shock_ahead": 0.7361533515288328 }, "gate": "candidate_not_promoted", "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" } }, "external_transfer": { "gifteval": { "status": "ok", "external": true, "gates_release": false, "entities": 240, "rows": 338832, "auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.8485763586187108, "value_regime_shift": 0.8379383660942458, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.8780953327258311, "compound_regime_break": 0.8625072356274331 }, "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted", "targets": { "prevalence": { "regime_transition": 0.2651952803134918, "value_regime_shift": 0.19231393933296204, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.16776002943515778, "compound_regime_break": 0.08943432569503784 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "external": true, "pretraining_only": true, "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain", "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain", "subsets_used": [ "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN", "LOS_LOOP", "PEMS07", "alibaba_cluster_trace_2018", "cdc_fluview_who_nrevss", "cmip6_1885" ], "subsets_failed": {}, "n_entities": 240, "n_events": 338832, "max_len": 1500, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T09:14:22Z", "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating." }, "missing_trunk_keys": 10, "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release." }, "lotsa": { "status": "ok", "external": true, "gates_release": false, "entities": 240, "rows": 337140, "auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.8371730378441059, "value_regime_shift": 0.835293820438645, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.8427907661146429, "compound_regime_break": 0.8798353209609161 }, "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted", "targets": { "prevalence": { "regime_transition": 0.28311699628829956, "value_regime_shift": 0.18364425003528595, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.15454745292663574, "compound_regime_break": 0.08751334995031357 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "external": true, "pretraining_only": true, "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/lotsa_data", "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/lotsa_data", "subsets_used": [ "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN", "LOOP_SEATTLE", "PEMS04", "SHMETRO", "cdc_fluview_ilinet", "cmip6_1890" ], "subsets_failed": {}, "n_entities": 240, "n_events": 337140, "max_len": 1500, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T09:51:09Z", "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating." }, "missing_trunk_keys": 10, "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release." }, "airquality": { "status": "skipped", "reason": "corpus has only 38 usable rows" }, "agriculture": { "status": "ok", "external": true, "gates_release": false, "entities": 31, "rows": 3618, "auroc": { "crop_regime_transition": null, "stress_ahead": 0.6375289031868905 }, "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted", "targets": { "prevalence": { "crop_regime_transition": NaN, "stress_ahead": 0.2257072627544403 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "QuakePulse corpus API \u2014 agriculture domain (publication-time availability)", "source_url": "https://quakepulse.live/corpus/v1/agriculture", "licences": [ "CC-BY-4.0", "Copernicus-Data-Space-Legal-Notice", "QuakePulse derived output", "QuakePulse model output" ], "blocked_channels": [], "since": "2026-05-01", "resampled_daily": false, "n_entities": 31, "n_events": 3618, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T10:47:09Z", "note": "Rows are publication-time available; model.* channels are carried as reference predictions, never as observations. Hourly sources are daily-resampled with the hourly count in source_count.", "dropped_model_only_rows": 0 }, "missing_trunk_keys": 10, "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release." }, "marine": { "status": "skipped", "reason": "corpus has only 942 usable rows" }, "urban": { "status": "skipped", "reason": "corpus has only 57 usable rows" } }, "gate_summary": { "promoted_domains": [ "climate", "seismic" ], "lodo_transfer_promoted": [ "seismic" ], "external_transfer_domains": [ "agriculture", "airquality", "gifteval", "lotsa", "marine", "urban" ], "status": "promoted", "rule": "v0.9.0 ships only if at least two real-corpus domains clear the gate; leave-one-domain-out and external-corpus transfer results are reported, never required \u2014 an external corpus cannot qualify a release" } }