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"cat_last__stable_print", "cat_last__mild_move", "cat_last__notable_move", "cat_last__large_move", "cat_last__shock_print", "cat_last__revision", "cat_last__stale_print", "cat_last__unknown", "cat_rate__stable_print", "cat_rate__mild_move", "cat_rate__notable_move", "cat_rate__large_move", "cat_rate__shock_print", "cat_rate__revision", "cat_rate__stale_print", "cat_rate__unknown", "cat_entropy", "unknown_cat_rate", "cat_switch_rate", "source_count_last", "source_count_mean", "log_confirmations", "contradiction_rate", "ref_resid_gap", "ref_resid_magnitude", "ref_resid_category", "ref_disagreement", "ref_avail_gap", "ref_avail_magnitude", "ref_avail_category", "gap_trend", "cat_concentration", "recent_vs_old_gap", "level_trend", "abs_change_trend", "z_change_trend", "days_since_prev_trend", "log_n_past", "is_cold_start", "censored_horizon", "gap_ratio_median_short", "gap_ratio_median_long", "gap_cv_short", "gap_cv_long", "gap_median_short_over_long", "level_ratio_median_short", 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They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "too_few_positives", "n": 8094, "positives": 2, "prevalence": 0.00024709661374799907, "note": "fewer than 25 positives on the test split; no discrimination metric here would be meaningful, so the target is excluded from the gate." }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.4068445861339569, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.3498558382894602, "brier": 0.40684457622922954, "ece": 0.406844572742333, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1532.1980652777354 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.4068445861339569, "auroc": 0.28487074353689223, "auprc": 0.2930693609017432, "brier": 0.46750398193056814, "ece": 0.4619414105416321, "lead_at_far10_hours": -714.5837266667022 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.4068445861339569, "auroc": 0.29682733244725246, "auprc": 0.3062516871182967, "brier": 0.46294059042468605, "ece": 0.4559123088247721, "lead_at_far10_hours": 125.55108833332856 }, "logistic": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.4068445861339569, "auroc": 0.9146781661098669, "auprc": 0.8552781075884159, "brier": 0.09760537837030452, "ece": 0.03467127929195603, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1532.1980652777354 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.23550613976232543, 0.3362399537826481 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.24863976973708862, 0.3460020909906056 ], "logistic": [ 0.8846710764559451, 0.938171653015979 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.21194363194883487, "ci95": [ 0.1637600462173519, 0.26449386023767457 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.20058033743427428, "ci95": [ 0.15399790900939436, 0.2513602302629114 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.4135824514848025, "ci95": [ -0.43817165301597905, -0.3846710764559451 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 209, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.20743760466575623, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.17113484525625242, "brier": 0.7925623918950832, "ece": 0.792562390506093, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1387.1779344444142 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.20743760466575623, "auroc": 0.3225272345516135, "auprc": 0.1458781779861211, "brier": 0.4754607862386478, "ece": 0.4952608780694529, "lead_at_far10_hours": 1060.232304027809 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.20743760466575623, "auroc": 0.34631542640578195, "auprc": 0.15935182067932424, "brier": 0.38826126279671536, "ece": 0.4097793043315235, "lead_at_far10_hours": -17.92908027778069 }, "logistic": { "n": 8094, "prevalence": 0.20743760466575623, "auroc": 0.8337433158307402, "auprc": 0.5240151116389206, "brier": 0.12293043470780553, "ece": 0.02516770638728981, "lead_at_far10_hours": -9.415901111099455 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.28597171462802295, 0.3673150349355963 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.3048209097192168, 0.39224532549250946 ], "logistic": [ 0.794530176549247, 0.8612742487121301 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.173486923133034, "ci95": [ 0.13268496506440366, 0.214028285371977 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.14919470767094306, "ci95": [ 0.10775467450749052, 0.19517909028078315 ], "significant": true }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.3314194872832029, "ci95": [ -0.3612742487121301, -0.29453017654924696 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 209, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "network": { "ak": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 512, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.1484375 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 512, "auroc": 0.5735691823899371, "prevalence": 0.4140625 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 479, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 479, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.031315241008996964 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 479, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.010438413359224796 } }, "ci": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 171, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 171, "auroc": 0.6941638608305275, "prevalence": 0.5789473652839661 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 160, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 160, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.04374999925494194 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 160, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.01875000074505806 } }, "hv": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 132, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 132, "auroc": 0.7201923076923077, "prevalence": 0.39393940567970276 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 128, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 128, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 128, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 } }, "nc": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 333, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 333, "auroc": 0.6594385914273344, "prevalence": 0.5075075030326843 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 323, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 323, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.021671826019883156 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 323, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.015479875728487968 } }, "nn": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 79, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 79, "auroc": 0.6897233201581028, "prevalence": 0.5822784900665283 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 72, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 72, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.013888888992369175 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 72, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.013888888992369175 } }, "ok": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 } }, "pr": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 827, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.10278113931417465 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 827, "auroc": 0.650346913360612, "prevalence": 0.5586457252502441 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 817, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 817, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.03059975430369377 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 817, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.020807834342122078 } }, "tx": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 257, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 257, "auroc": 0.5189134298045189, "prevalence": 0.6070038676261902 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 249, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 249, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09638553857803345 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 249, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06827308982610703 } }, "us": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6218, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.10196204483509064 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 6218, "auroc": 0.6570184500165273, "prevalence": 0.4990350604057312 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 5866, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0003409478231333196 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 5866, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5479031801223755 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 5866, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.2780429720878601 } }, "uu": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 0 } } }, "magnitude_type": { "mb": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 3900, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09256410598754883 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3900, "auroc": 0.6661239292992954, "prevalence": 0.49282050132751465 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3637, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 3637, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.7643662095069885 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3637, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.3739345669746399 } }, "mb_lg": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 4 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 4 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 } }, "md": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 1083, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.07663896679878235 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 1083, "auroc": 0.6503672810901726, "prevalence": 0.5401661992073059 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 1063, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 1063, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.028222013264894485 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 1063, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.018814675509929657 } }, "ml": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 3073, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09990237653255463 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3073, "auroc": 0.6399843624852206, "prevalence": 0.48909860849380493 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2957, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0006763612036593258 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 2957, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.062225230038166046 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2957, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.03753804415464401 } }, "mw": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 41, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.024390242993831635 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 41, "auroc": 0.6785714285714286, "prevalence": 0.4878048896789551 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 39, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 39, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.025641025975346565 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 39, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.025641025975346565 } }, "mwb": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 1 } }, "mwr": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 111, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.07207207381725311 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 111, "auroc": 0.5840740740740741, "prevalence": 0.6756756901741028 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 106, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 106, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5377358198165894 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 106, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.3679245412349701 } }, "mww": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 316, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.11075949668884277 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 316, "auroc": 0.6422947131608548, "prevalence": 0.5981012582778931 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 290, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 290, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.8275862336158752 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 290, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5068965554237366 } } }, "depth_class": { "deep": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 401, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.027431420981884003 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 401, "auroc": 0.5574301607677731, "prevalence": 0.28428927063941956 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 377, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 377, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.6259946823120117 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 377, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.16445623338222504 } }, "intermediate": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 1704, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.15551643073558807 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 1704, "auroc": 0.5872827849860982, "prevalence": 0.38967135548591614 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 1592, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 1592, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5006281137466431 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 1592, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.18781407177448273 } }, "mid_crust": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 2332, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.13336192071437836 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2332, "auroc": 0.6361469586288729, "prevalence": 0.48627787828445435 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2209, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0009053870453499258 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 2209, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.3110004663467407 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2209, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.1557265669107437 } }, "upper_crust": { "event_regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 4092, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.050830889493227005 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 4092, "auroc": 0.6410380273401747, "prevalence": 0.5833333134651184 }, "magnitude_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3916, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "significant_event_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 3916, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.4016853868961334 }, "compound_seismic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3916, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.24872319400310516 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "cadence_shift", "significant_event_ahead", "compound_seismic_stress" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [ "event_regime_transition", "significant_event_ahead", "compound_seismic_stress" ], "no_collapsed_heads": false, "calibration_within_bound": false, "worst_ece": 0.792562390506093, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "3 head(s) sit within 0.005 AUROC of chance (event_regime_transition, significant_event_ahead, compound_seismic_stress) \u2014 a collapsed head is a defect and blocks promotion", "worst-target ECE 0.793 exceeds bound" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "hydrology": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "hydrology", "schema_version": "0.4.0", "schema_hash": "ff76f6afd69fbb8f", "entity_kind": "opaque_gauge_site", "categories": [ "very_low_flow", "low_flow", "normal_flow", "elevated_flow", "high_flow", "flood_flow", "no_flow", "estimated_record", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "discharge_cfs", "abs_daily_change_cfs", "rise_ratio" ], "context_dims": [ "state", "flow_scale", "season" ], "targets": [ { "name": "flow_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 6 }, { "name": "discharge_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "discharge_cfs", "shift": 0.5 }, { "name": "volatility_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "abs_daily_change_cfs", "shift": 0.6 }, { "name": "surge_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "rise_ratio", "level": 1.75, "direction": "above" }, { "name": "compound_hydrologic_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 8, "over": [ "discharge_regime_shift", "volatility_regime_shift", "surge_ahead" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "USGS Water Services daily values (public, credential-free)", "source_url": "https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/", "licence": "USGS public domain; cite USGS National Water Information System", "states": [ "co", "or", "pa", "ga", "mn", "az", "wa", "mo", "ny", "tx" ], "windows": [ [ "2023-01-01", "2024-01-01" ], [ "2024-01-01", "2025-01-01" ], [ "2025-01-01", "2026-01-01" ], [ "2026-01-01", "2026-08-20" ] ], "parameter": "00060 discharge (cfs), daily mean", "min_days_per_entity": 400, "n_entities": 320, "n_events": 424960, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T05:29:09Z", "note": "Descriptive public measurements only. 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0.5682528220547441, "prevalence": 0.2649652063846588 }, "volume_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 26879, "auroc": 0.64061413434015, "prevalence": 0.34707391262054443 }, "dislocation_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 26879, "auroc": 0.6513942461279466, "prevalence": 0.2749358117580414 }, "compound_market_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 26879, "auroc": 0.6120726347767442, "prevalence": 0.2375088334083557 } }, "up": { "regime_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 23766, "auroc": 0.6231183275873938, "prevalence": 0.4946562349796295 }, "volatility_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 23444, "auroc": 0.5858802086530266, "prevalence": 0.27119946479797363 }, "volume_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 23444, "auroc": 0.6287743852299834, "prevalence": 0.3583432734012604 }, "dislocation_ahead": { "status": "ok", "n": 23444, "auroc": 0.6724571084508293, "prevalence": 0.2846783697605133 }, "compound_market_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 23444, "auroc": 0.6157841295146994, "prevalence": 0.2469715029001236 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "regime_transition", "volatility_regime_shift", "volume_regime_shift", "dislocation_ahead", "compound_market_stress" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [], "no_collapsed_heads": true, "calibration_within_bound": false, "worst_ece": 0.10107148478254421, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "worst-target ECE 0.101 exceeds bound" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "spaceweather": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "spaceweather", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "e470be55b5ec586a", "entity_kind": "opaque_solar_rotation", "categories": [ "quiet", "unsettled", "active", "minor_storm", "moderate_storm", "strong_storm", "severe_storm", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "kp", "ap", "ap_rise", "f107" ], "context_dims": [ "solar_phase", "season", "activity_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "activity_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 4 }, { "name": "cadence_shift", "kind": "cadence_shift", "horizon": 4, "factor": 2.0 }, { "name": "ap_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 6, "channel": "ap", "shift": 0.8, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "storm_onset", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 6, "channel": "kp", "level": 5.0, "direction": "above" }, { "name": "severe_storm_onset", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "kp", "level": 7.0, "direction": "above" }, { "name": "compound_geomagnetic_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 8, "over": [ "ap_regime_shift", "storm_onset", "cadence_shift" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "GFZ Potsdam Kp/ap/F10.7 (definitive, CC BY 4.0, credential-free)", "source_url": "https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_Ap_SN_F107_since_1932.txt", "licence": "GFZ Kp index, CC BY 4.0 \u2014 cite Matzka et al. (2021)", "cadence": "3-hourly Kp/ap, daily F10.7 broadcast across the day", "since_year": 2005, "n_entities": 293, "n_events": 63248, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T06:07:29Z", "note": "Externally forced, punctuated activity. Bartels rotation numbers are opaque grouping keys and never enter the feature space." }, "split": { "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0", "n_train": 37941, "n_val": 12641, "n_test": 12650, "boundary_train_val": 1514637360.0, "boundary_val_test": 1651250880.0, "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 16 }, "features": { "n": 135, "version": "surprise-features/0.4.0", "degenerate_zeroed": [ "kp_available", "ap_available", "reference_missing_rate", "cat_last__unknown", "source_count_last", "log_confirmations", "censored_horizon" ] }, "sequence": { "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0", "steps": 12 }, "targets": { "prevalence": { "activity_transition": 0.0658441036939621, "cadence_shift": 0.0, "ap_regime_shift": 0.23536543548107147, "storm_onset": 0.04373292252421379, "severe_storm_onset": 0.005332125350832939, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": 0.030581306666135788 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "calibration": { "method": "per-target affine Platt scaling fitted on validation", "parameters": [ [ 121.54364311857529, -110658.44442854088 ], [ 0.0, -9.387146748082028 ], [ 0.7471558983028271, -1.245687053368764 ], [ 84.89668441305305, -885186.3462995173 ], [ 6.043652240193365, -908222.1225696675 ], [ 70.95474681257528, -258776.50825128573 ] ] }, "abstention": { "threshold": 0.08029820007749375, "coverage": 0.8000158215331066, "selective_accuracy": 0.9638419196413858, "base_accuracy": 0.9032249558315535, "curve": [ { "coverage": 0.5000395538327664, "threshold": 0.06394886669096711, "selective_accuracy": 0.9742393081263514 }, { "coverage": 0.6000316430662131, "threshold": 0.06724315447030066, "selective_accuracy": 0.9704680290046144 }, { "coverage": 0.7000237322996599, "threshold": 0.07158870498315499, "selective_accuracy": 0.9679248125965271 }, { "coverage": 0.8000158215331066, "threshold": 0.08029820007749375, "selective_accuracy": 0.9638419196413858 }, { "coverage": 0.9000079107665533, "threshold": 0.12160234610271388, "selective_accuracy": 0.9563446719990625 }, { "coverage": 1.0, "threshold": 0.9352884246014569, "selective_accuracy": 0.9032249558315535 } ], "fit_split": "validation", "evaluation_split": "test", "test_coverage": 0.7811857707509882, "test_base_accuracy": 0.8698089591567852, "test_selective_accuracy": 0.9387101126627538, "test_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.0689011535059686 }, "evaluation": { "version": "surprise-eval/0.3.0", "domain_id": "spaceweather", "schema_hash": "e470be55b5ec586a", "targets": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11950, "prevalence": 0.11196652799844742, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.1554593208621271, "brier": 0.11196652719663175, "ece": 0.11196652785557704, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24832.5 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11950, "prevalence": 0.11196652799844742, "auroc": 0.5030226378801221, "auprc": 0.1208917237933993, "brier": 0.6888292769566858, "ece": 0.7548363534783136, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24144.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11950, "prevalence": 0.11196652799844742, "auroc": 0.7103417345735459, "auprc": 0.23804317694901683, "brier": 0.2260840200773261, "ece": 0.30221232469295, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24828.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11950, "prevalence": 0.11196652799844742, "auroc": 0.8402919925379904, "auprc": 0.4661639643799101, "brier": 0.07636432018957792, "ece": 0.014675215657543626, "lead_at_far10_hours": 24831.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.46275457518657953, 0.5413388935968279 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.688864952633059, 0.7323991330177982 ], "logistic": [ 0.821319660385719, 0.8557778662236556 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": -0.003801852814242732, "ci95": [ -0.0413388935968278, 0.0372454248134204 ], "significant": false }, "ewma_z": { "mean": -0.21148855373437725, "ci95": [ -0.2323991330177983, -0.18886495263305902 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.3408846897893191, "ci95": [ -0.3557778662236556, -0.321319660385719 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 59, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "single_class_test_target", "n": 11950, "prevalence": 0.0, "note": "Target cannot support discrimination or promotion metrics on this test split." }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.2236258089542389, "auroc": 0.6570348009694723, "auprc": 0.36992742669780404, "brier": 0.1635060681896286, "ece": 0.023054120761233057, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20776.5 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.2236258089542389, "auroc": 0.4961193411079109, "auprc": 0.25167592558969454, "brier": 0.6150753816544247, "ece": 0.6434207592182638, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20251.5 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.2236258089542389, "auroc": 0.6487653745963329, "auprc": 0.3859951018590054, "brier": 0.23395092166320122, "ece": 0.21865555669036998, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20794.5 }, "logistic": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.2236258089542389, "auroc": 0.6872016136612352, "auprc": 0.4169332996233348, "brier": 0.15797987333240646, "ece": 0.017854862917591918, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20794.5 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.6311707197552067, 0.6822320834103609 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.46856149498758853, 0.5201941316434257 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6308086366756931, 0.6629421176274631 ], "logistic": [ 0.6641962458452316, 0.7097739955418549 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.16081396299652487, "ci95": [ 0.12636263422484406, 0.19366438292250002 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": 0.008782336377208499, "ci95": [ -0.014900717528419719, 0.03229862658957026 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.031316497722365506, "ci95": [ -0.0497550378652062, -0.013662301521490384 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 59, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.07639125734567642, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.09172635551801814, "brier": 0.07639125981562243, "ece": 0.07639125951633709, "lead_at_far10_hours": 23094.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.07639125734567642, "auroc": 0.47854229232523765, "auprc": 0.07231461332513094, "brier": 0.7179602824806715, "ece": 0.7906553094687931, "lead_at_far10_hours": 22392.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.07639125734567642, "auroc": 0.7042986454540339, "auprc": 0.17781905783850252, "brier": 0.23296427011563056, "ece": 0.3381250781565156, "lead_at_far10_hours": 23085.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11716, "prevalence": 0.07639125734567642, "auroc": 0.7782603555366944, "auprc": 0.4053404645703072, "brier": 0.05703660601732102, "ece": 0.016422725198383777, "lead_at_far10_hours": 23088.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.4357235490284449, 0.52746188752232 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6743655844416584, 0.7349089834289754 ], "logistic": [ 0.7412823796346556, 0.811994363846606 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.020404378824324568, "ci95": [ -0.027461887522320073, 0.06427645097155503 ], "significant": false }, "ewma_z": { "mean": -0.20528987458017506, "ci95": [ -0.23490898342897534, -0.17436558444165842 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.27706171420121495, "ci95": [ -0.311994363846606, -0.24128237963465562 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 59, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.01228009071201086, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.01406345064558781, "brier": 0.012280090576552308, "ece": 0.012280090540603488, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20898.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.01228009071201086, "auroc": 0.5258020075280739, "auprc": 0.013529437814561944, "brier": 0.764722403023677, "ece": 0.8549975805440274, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20196.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.01228009071201086, "auroc": 0.7707283120742476, "auprc": 0.054552736677123216, "brier": 0.24434213645322897, "ece": 0.4019378798871277, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20889.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.01228009071201086, "auroc": 0.6779056220416602, "auprc": 0.18545379085499386, "brier": 0.011614215901018443, "ece": 0.025723305586599216, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20826.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.3753643557767429, 0.6882788020564918 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.723978870146187, 0.8179125827559198 ], "logistic": [ 0.5750866720590114, 0.7750208930048573 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": -0.028570791303604674, "ci95": [ -0.1882788020564919, 0.1246356442232571 ], "significant": false }, "ewma_z": { "mean": -0.27010309633424756, "ci95": [ -0.3179125827559199, -0.22397887014618714 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.17592343869409646, "ci95": [ -0.2750208930048573, -0.07508667205901154 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 59, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "candidate": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.05077512562274933, "auroc": 0.5, "auprc": 0.05697793460434663, "brier": 0.0507751262846099, "ece": 0.05077512644382888, "lead_at_far10_hours": 21471.0 }, "baselines": { "phase0_rules": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.05077512562274933, "auroc": 0.4268679660761676, "auprc": 0.04214484292141239, "brier": 0.7392168567428841, "ece": 0.816502544230465, "lead_at_far10_hours": 20769.0 }, "ewma_z": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.05077512562274933, "auroc": 0.7209288088337058, "auprc": 0.15321600076682024, "brier": 0.23542653977164132, "ece": 0.36344284337654537, "lead_at_far10_hours": 21462.0 }, "logistic": { "n": 11482, "prevalence": 0.05077512562274933, "auroc": 0.7574720452896917, "auprc": 0.2976632441161217, "brier": 0.04179545257619189, "ece": 0.01847667300607188, "lead_at_far10_hours": 21465.0 } }, "auroc_ci95": { "candidate": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "phase0_rules": [ 0.3770368468063597, 0.4833073126407172 ], "ewma_z": [ 0.6882071568550765, 0.7494412746149995 ], "logistic": [ 0.7220167711206648, 0.7903600471365544 ] }, "paired_auroc_lift": { "phase0_rules": { "mean": 0.07141170329143105, "ci95": [ 0.01669268735928276, 0.12296315319364026 ], "significant": true }, "ewma_z": { "mean": -0.221484525938847, "ci95": [ -0.24944127461499957, -0.18820715685507647 ], "significant": false }, "logistic": { "mean": -0.25679121656134585, "ci95": [ -0.2903600471365544, -0.2220167711206648 ], "significant": false } }, "bootstrap": { "resampling_unit": "entity", "n_entities": 59, "n_replicates": 300, "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus." } } }, "slices": { "solar_phase": { "active": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6346, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.10699653625488281 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 6346, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 6228, "auroc": 0.644054240127851, "prevalence": 0.21499678492546082 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6228, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06390494853258133 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6110, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.006382978521287441 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 6110, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.03944353386759758 } }, "maximum": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 4864, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.12171052396297455 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 4864, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 4766, "auroc": 0.6820799842381211, "prevalence": 0.2373059242963791 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4766, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09232060611248016 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4668, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.02185089886188507 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 4668, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06319622695446014 } }, "rising": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 716, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09357541799545288 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 716, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 698, "auroc": 0.6321532846715329, "prevalence": 0.2148997187614441 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 698, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0816618874669075 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 680, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 680, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06911765038967133 } }, "unknown": { "activity_transition": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "insufficient_rows", "n": 24 } } }, "season": { "autumn": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 2744, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.13520407676696777 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2744, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2688, "auroc": 0.6152723300591147, "prevalence": 0.2723214328289032 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2688, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0944940447807312 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2632, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.01785714365541935 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2632, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.05699088051915169 } }, "spring": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 3034, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.12755438685417175 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3034, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2980, "auroc": 0.6330899019466947, "prevalence": 0.2328859120607376 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2980, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.09899328649044037 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2926, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.017429938539862633 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2926, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.06527683138847351 } }, "summer": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 3452, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.08632677048444748 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3452, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 3384, "auroc": 0.7036500851195024, "prevalence": 0.18351063132286072 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3384, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.05791962146759033 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3316, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0051266588270664215 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3316, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.045536790043115616 } }, "winter": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 2720, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.10367646813392639 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2720, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 2664, "auroc": 0.6434599208942505, "prevalence": 0.2150900959968567 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2664, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.05630630627274513 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 2608, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.009969324804842472 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 2608, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.03489263728260994 } } }, "activity_band": { "extreme": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 156, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.7948718070983887 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 156, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 153, "auroc": 0.5467532467532468, "prevalence": 0.6405228972434998 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 153, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.8496732115745544 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 149, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.3288590610027313 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 149, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5906040072441101 } }, "high": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 697, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.5050215125083923 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 697, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 682, "auroc": 0.5958874051783587, "prevalence": 0.4002932608127594 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 682, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.3328445851802826 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 659, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.031866464763879776 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 659, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.2033383846282959 } }, "low": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 6927, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.027284538373351097 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 6927, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 6824, "auroc": 0.6442327494412656, "prevalence": 0.17878077924251556 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6824, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.027989448979496956 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 6710, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.0037257825024425983 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 6710, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.020566318184137344 } }, "medium": { "activity_transition": { "status": "ok", "n": 4170, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.16139088571071625 }, "cadence_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 4170, "auroc": NaN, "prevalence": 0.0 }, "ap_regime_shift": { "status": "ok", "n": 4057, "auroc": 0.6126739995866246, "prevalence": 0.2536357045173645 }, "storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 4057, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.08553118258714676 }, "severe_storm_onset": { "status": "ok", "n": 3964, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.01160444039851427 }, "compound_geomagnetic_stress": { "status": "ok", "n": 3964, "auroc": 0.5, "prevalence": 0.05625630542635918 } } } } }, "gate": { "criteria": { "real_corpus_required": true, "min_targets_significant": 2, "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03, "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0, "max_collapsed_targets": 0, "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005, "max_ece": 0.1, "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02, "min_entities": 100, "leakage_tests_must_pass": true }, "checks": { "real_corpus": true, "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [ "ap_regime_shift", "compound_geomagnetic_stress" ], "enough_significant_targets": true, "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [], "beats_logistic_baseline": false, "collapsed_targets": [ "activity_transition", "storm_onset", "severe_storm_onset", "compound_geomagnetic_stress" ], "no_collapsed_heads": false, "calibration_within_bound": false, "worst_ece": 0.11196652785557704, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "4 head(s) sit within 0.005 AUROC of chance (activity_transition, storm_onset, severe_storm_onset, compound_geomagnetic_stress) \u2014 a collapsed head is a defect and blocks promotion", "worst-target ECE 0.112 exceeds bound" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "climate": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "climate", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "0e637920318818fc", "entity_kind": "opaque_station", "categories": [ "cold_anomaly", "cool", "seasonal_normal", "warm", "heat_anomaly", "wet_day", "extreme_precip", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "tmax_c", "trange_c", "anomaly_c", "precip_mm" ], "context_dims": [ "latitude_band", "season", "anomaly_band" ], "targets": [ { "name": "weather_regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 6 }, { "name": "anomaly_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "anomaly_c", "shift": 0.7, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "diurnal_collapse", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "trange_c", "shift": 0.5, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "heat_extreme_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "anomaly_c", "level": 6.0, "direction": "above" }, { "name": "cold_extreme_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "anomaly_c", "level": -6.0, "direction": "below" }, { "name": "compound_climate_stress", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 10, "over": [ "anomaly_regime_shift", "heat_extreme_ahead", "diurnal_collapse" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "NOAA GHCN-Daily station access files (public, credential-free)", "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-historical-climatology-network-daily/access/", "licence": "US Government public domain; cite Menne et al. (2012) GHCN-Daily", "stations": [ "USW00023174", "USW00094728", "USW00023234", "USW00013874", "USW00094846", "USW00012960", "USW00003017", "USW00024233", "USW00012839", "USW00023183", "USW00014922", "USW00013881", "USW00012916", "USW00014739", "USW00093134", "USW00023044", "USW00024131", "USW00013994", "USW00003927", "USW00014820", "USW00026451", "USW00025309", "USW00012842", "USW00013873", "USW00093814", "ASN00066062", "UKM00003772", "FRM00007150", "JA000047662", "SPE00120287", "CA001108395", "SWE00140790", "NLE00101920", "RSM00027612", "AYW00090001", "AYM00089022", "AYM00089606", "AYM00089062", "AYM00089063", "AYM00089002", "AYM00089004", "AYM00089512", "AYM00089532", "AYM00089564", "AYM00089571", "AYM00089592", "AYM00089611", "AYM00089642", "AYM00088963", "AYM00088968", "AR000087860", "FKM00088889", "SXM00088903", "SF000068994", "FSM00061997", "FRM00061998", "ASM00094998", "NZ000093844", "AR000087715", "AR000087623", "ASN00009500", "ASN00018115", "ASN00068151", "NZ000093417", "NZ000093292", "NZ000093994", "FP000091958", "CI000085469", "CI000085585", "AR000087217", "AR000000011", "BR002554002", "BC004612080", "MZ000067335", "MA000067197", "ASN00006105", "ASN00006022", "ASN00011003", "ASN00016001", "ASN00035070", "ASM00094995", "NFM00094996", "FJM00091652", "CWM00091843", "FP000091929", "FP000091948", "AR000087007", "WAM00068098", "BC000068032", "BC012192590", "EUM00061972", "MA000067083", "MP000061986", "ASN00005007", "ASN00003003", "ASN00001006", "ASN00014703", "ASM00094299", "NC000091577", "NH000091554", "FJM00091680", "WF000917530", "AQW00061705", "FP000091943", "FP000091925", "PE000084455", "BL000085041", "BL000085114", "BR037041370", "AO000066160", "TZ000063832", "MZ000067215", "FSM00061968", "MP000061974", "CK000096996", "ID000096745", "ID000097340", "ASN00001007", "ASN00014508", "ASN00031213", "BP000091517", "NHM00091551", "FJM00091650", "ECM00084008", "CO000080259", "CO000080222", "BR000047002", "IV000005592", "GHM00065465", "CF000004400", 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Neither is ever encoded as a feature." }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "source": "NASA FIRMS active fire detections (VIIRS_NOAA20_SP, VIIRS_SNPP_NRT)", "products": [ "VIIRS_NOAA20_SP", "VIIRS_SNPP_NRT" ], "source_url": "https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/api/area/csv", "licence": "NASA FIRMS open data; cite NASA LANCE/FIRMS", "regions": [ "usa_west", "iberia", "australia_se", "amazon" ], "days_back": 120, "n_entities": 250, "n_events": 13223, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T06:58:27Z", "note": "Detections aggregated to ~1 degree cells per day. 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"no_collapsed_heads": false, "calibration_within_bound": false, "worst_ece": 0.9498181868032038, "abstention_helps": true, "enough_entities": true, "leakage_tests_passed": true }, "status": "candidate_not_promoted", "blocking_reasons": [ "only 0 target(s) beat the rule baseline by +0.03 AUROC with a CI excluding zero", "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot", "6 head(s) sit within 0.005 AUROC of chance (fire_regime_transition, cadence_shift, frp_regime_shift, cluster_expansion, escalation_ahead, compound_fire_stress) \u2014 a collapsed head is a defect and blocks promotion", "worst-target ECE 0.950 exceeds bound" ], "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one." } }, "chaos": { "domain": { "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0", "domain_id": "chaos", "schema_version": "0.5.0", "schema_hash": "c037a57b78b4a96b", "entity_kind": "opaque_trajectory", "categories": [ "fixed_point", "periodic", "quasiperiodic", "weak_chaos", "strong_chaos", "intermittent", "unknown" ], "channels": [ "energy", "residual", "spread", "order_param" ], "context_dims": [ "system", "forcing_band", "phase" ], "targets": [ { "name": "regime_transition", "kind": "category_transition", "horizon": 6 }, { "name": "residual_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "residual", "shift": 0.8, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "spread_regime_shift", "kind": "magnitude_shift", "horizon": 8, "channel": "spread", "shift": 0.7, "min_observations": 2 }, { "name": "decoherence_ahead", "kind": "threshold_crossing", "horizon": 8, "channel": "order_param", "level": 0.45, "direction": "below" }, { "name": "compound_bifurcation", "kind": "compound", "horizon": 10, "over": [ "residual_regime_shift", "spread_regime_shift", "decoherence_ahead" ], "k": 2 } ], "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0, "permitted": [ "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)", "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)", "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators", "event and source evidence-quality indicators", "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)", "regime indicators derived from past observations only", "cold-start state", "unavailable-reference mask", "censored-horizon indicator" ], "forbidden": [ "entity identity as a semantic claim", "future events or future aggregates", "ownership labels", "private partner data", "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes" ], "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. 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only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted" } }, "external_transfer": { "gifteval": { "status": "ok", "external": true, "gates_release": false, "entities": 240, "rows": 338832, "auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.785708030260655, "value_regime_shift": 0.5, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.5, "compound_regime_break": 0.5 }, "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted", "targets": { "prevalence": { "regime_transition": 0.26838499307632446, "value_regime_shift": 0.1990034580230713, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.2334088832139969, "compound_regime_break": 0.10160034894943237 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "external": true, "pretraining_only": true, "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain", "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain", "subsets_used": [ "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN", "LOS_LOOP", "PEMS07", "alibaba_cluster_trace_2018", "cdc_fluview_who_nrevss", "cmip6_1885" ], "subsets_failed": {}, "n_entities": 240, "n_events": 338832, "max_len": 1500, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T08:29:22Z", "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating." }, "missing_trunk_keys": 8, "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release." }, "lotsa": { "status": "ok", "external": true, "gates_release": false, "entities": 240, "rows": 337140, "auroc": { "regime_transition": 0.7705380379648501, "value_regime_shift": 0.9202110903990187, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.8373657577881606, "compound_regime_break": 0.9036125796616359 }, "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted", "targets": { "prevalence": { "regime_transition": 0.3043476939201355, "value_regime_shift": 0.23023563623428345, "volatility_regime_shift": 0.23386669158935547, "compound_regime_break": 0.12828300893306732 }, "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0" }, "corpus": { "real_corpus": true, "external": true, "pretraining_only": true, "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/lotsa_data", "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/lotsa_data", "subsets_used": [ "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN", "LOOP_SEATTLE", "PEMS04", "SHMETRO", "cdc_fluview_ilinet", "cmip6_1890" ], "subsets_failed": {}, "n_entities": 240, "n_events": 337140, "max_len": 1500, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T08:44:38Z", "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating." }, "missing_trunk_keys": 8, "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release." } }, "gate_summary": { "promoted_domains": [ "hydrology", "climate" ], "lodo_transfer_promoted": [], "external_transfer_domains": [ "gifteval", "lotsa" ], "status": "promoted", "rule": "v0.7.0 ships only if at least two real-corpus domains clear the gate; leave-one-domain-out and external-corpus transfer results are reported, never required \u2014 an external corpus cannot qualify a release" } }