Daily Papers

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

Diffusion language models (dLLMs) are an emerging alternative to autoregressive (AR) generators, but aligning them to human preferences is challenging because sequence log-likelihoods are intractable and pairwise preference data are costly to collect. We introduce ELBO-KTO, which combines an ELBO surrogate for diffusion log-likelihoods with a prospect-theoretic, unpaired preference objective (Kahneman Tversky Optimization, KTO). We analyze the bias and variance induced by the ELBO substitution and employ variance-reduction practices that stabilize gradients during training. Applied to LLaDA-8B-Instruct, ELBO-KTO yields 65.9% and 62.3% adjusted win rates on kto-mix-14k and UltraFeedback-Binary, respectively, versus the base model under an automatic LLM judge. Across downstream tasks, including GSM8K, MMLU, and additional reasoning/knowledge benchmarks, ELBO-KTO trained on UltraFeedback-Binary performs on par with or better than the base model under identical decoding. This establishes unpaired preference optimization as a viable alternative to pairwise alignment in diffusion LLMs.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Iterative generative modeling techniques, such as flow matching, provide powerful tools to model complex behaviors for effective offline reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we propose a new off-policy RL algorithm that trains a flow policy based on prior data. Our idea starts from the "expanded" Markov decision process (MDP) framework, which treats individual flow refinement steps as separate actions in an MDP. To enable off-policy RL within this framework, we apply two techniques: we generate virtual on-policy trajectories (by "reversing" flows) to make this framework compatible with prior data, and we apply a bias-and-variance reduction technique to mitigate the curse of horizon in off-policy RL. We call the resulting algorithm Reversal Q-learning (RQL). RQL has several advantages over previous flow-based RL methods: it does not suffer from backpropagation through time, makes better use of the learned value function, and directly trains the full, expressive flow policy. Through our experiments on 50 challenging simulated robotic tasks, we show that RQL leads to the best average offline RL performance compared to state-of-the-art flow-based offline RL algorithms.

Building on the probability-domain distillation framework of Sparse-KD, we develop an axiomatic, operator-theoretic framework for multi-teacher ensemble knowledge distillation. Rather than prescribing a specific aggregation formula, we define five core axioms governing valid knowledge aggregation operators, encompassing convexity, positivity, continuity, weight monotonicity, and temperature coherence. We prove the existence and non-uniqueness of operator families satisfying these axioms, establishing that multiple distinct aggregation mechanisms conform to the same foundational principles. Within this framework, we establish operator-agnostic guarantees showing that multi-teacher aggregation reduces both stochastic variance and systematic supervisory bias under heterogeneous teachers, while providing Jensen-type bounds, log-loss guarantees, and safety attenuation properties. For aggregation operators linear in teacher weights, we further establish classical ensemble variance-reduction results under standard independence assumptions, with extensions to correlated-error regimes. The framework provides theoretical grounding for multi-teacher distillation from diverse frontier models while admitting multiple valid implementation strategies.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a dominant paradigm for enhancing Large Language Models (LLMs) reasoning, yet its reliance on external verifiers limits its scalability. Recent findings suggest that RLVR primarily functions by eliciting latent capabilities, motivating the development of verifier-free algorithms. However, in such settings, standard methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization face a critical challenge: destructive gradient variance that often leads to training collapse. To address this issue, we introduceVerifier-Independent Curriculum Reinforcement Learning (VI-CuRL), a framework that leverages the model's intrinsic confidence to construct a curriculum independent from external verifiers. By prioritizing high-confidence samples, VI-CuRL effectively manages the bias-variance trade-off, specifically targeting the reduction of action and problem variance. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis, proving that our estimator guarantees asymptotic unbiasedness. Empirically, VI-CuRL promotes stability and consistently outperforms verifier-independent baselines across six challenging benchmarks with/without verifiers.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning, often caused by the small batch sizes typically used in this regime, can destabilize training by introducing large oscillations in generation quality. A popular approach to mitigating this instability is to take an Exponential moving average (EMA) of weights throughout training. While EMA reduces stochasticity, thereby smoothing training, the introduction of bias from old iterates often creates a lag in optimization relative to vanilla training. In this work, we propose the Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA), a simple and practical augmentation of EMA that retains variance-reduction benefits while eliminating bias. BEMA is motivated by a simple theoretical model wherein we demonstrate provable acceleration of BEMA over both a standard EMA and vanilla training. Through an extensive suite of experiments on Language Models, we show that BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance over both EMA and vanilla training in a variety of standard LM benchmarks, making BEMA a practical and theoretically motivated intervention for more stable and efficient fine-tuning.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are powerful models for learning representations of attributed graphs. To scale GCNs to large graphs, state-of-the-art methods use various layer sampling techniques to alleviate the "neighbor explosion" problem during minibatch training. We propose GraphSAINT, a graph sampling based inductive learning method that improves training efficiency and accuracy in a fundamentally different way. By changing perspective, GraphSAINT constructs minibatches by sampling the training graph, rather than the nodes or edges across GCN layers. Each iteration, a complete GCN is built from the properly sampled subgraph. Thus, we ensure fixed number of well-connected nodes in all layers. We further propose normalization technique to eliminate bias, and sampling algorithms for variance reduction. Importantly, we can decouple the sampling from the forward and backward propagation, and extend GraphSAINT with many architecture variants (e.g., graph attention, jumping connection). GraphSAINT demonstrates superior performance in both accuracy and training time on five large graphs, and achieves new state-of-the-art F1 scores for PPI (0.995) and Reddit (0.970).

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning is increasingly driven by the refinement of post-training loss functions and alignment strategies. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) remain constrained by static uniformity: uniform prompt sampling and a fixed number of rollouts per prompt. For heterogeneous, heavy-tailed reasoning data, this creates structural inefficiencies that waste compute on already-solved patterns while under-training the long tail of hard problems. To address this, we propose Multi-Adversary Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), an optimization-first framework that moves beyond uniform reasoning models by dynamically adapting the training distribution. We introduce an Online Difficulty Classifier that partitions prompts into dynamic pass@k difficulty groups. We then propose two independent GDRO games for post-training: (1) Prompt-GDRO, which employs an EMA-debiased multiplicative-weights bandit sampler to target the intensive difficulty margin and upweight persistently hard groups without frequency bias; and (2) Rollout-GDRO, which uses a shadow-price controller to reallocate rollouts across groups, maximizing gradient variance reduction on hard tasks under a fixed mean budget (compute-neutral). We provide no-regret guarantees for both controllers and additionally a variance-proxy analysis motivating a square-root optimal rollout allocation for Rollout-GDRO. We validate our framework on the DAPO 14.1k dataset using Qwen3-Base models. Prompt-GDRO and Rollout-GDRO achieve average relative gains of +10.6% and +10.1%, respectively, in pass@8 accuracy across 1.7B, 4B, and 8B scales compared to the GRPO baseline. Qualitative analysis shows an emergent curriculum: the adversaries shift resources to the evolving reasoning frontier, enhancing the reasoning model's performance.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Training deep neural networks--and more recently, large models--demands efficient and scalable optimizers. Adaptive gradient algorithms like Adam, AdamW, and their variants have been central to this task. Despite the development of numerous variance reduction algorithms in the past decade aimed at accelerating stochastic optimization in both convex and nonconvex settings, variance reduction has not found widespread success in training deep neural networks or large language models. Consequently, it has remained a less favored approach in modern AI. In this paper, to unleash the power of variance reduction for efficient training of large models, we propose a unified optimization framework, MARS (Make vAriance Reduction Shine), which reconciles preconditioned gradient methods with variance reduction via a scaled stochastic recursive momentum technique. Within our framework, we introduce three instances of MARS that leverage preconditioned gradient updates based on AdamW, Lion, and Shampoo, respectively. We also draw a connection between our algorithms and existing optimizers. Experimental results on training GPT-2 models indicate that MARS consistently outperforms AdamW by a large margin.

While Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs), such as LLaDA, present a promising paradigm for language modeling, there has been relatively little effort in aligning these models with human preferences via reinforcement learning. The challenge primarily arises from the high variance in Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO)-based likelihood estimates required for preference optimization. To address this issue, we propose Variance-Reduced Preference Optimization (VRPO), a framework that formally analyzes the variance of ELBO estimators and derives bounds on both the bias and variance of preference optimization gradients. Building on this theoretical foundation, we introduce unbiased variance reduction strategies, including optimal Monte Carlo budget allocation and antithetic sampling, that significantly improve the performance of MDM alignment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VRPO by applying it to LLaDA, and the resulting model, LLaDA 1.5, outperforms its SFT-only predecessor consistently and significantly across mathematical (GSM8K +4.7), code (HumanEval +3.0, MBPP +1.8), and alignment benchmarks (IFEval +4.0, Arena-Hard +4.3). Furthermore, LLaDA 1.5 demonstrates a highly competitive mathematical performance compared to strong language MDMs and ARMs. Project page: https://ml-gsai.github.io/LLaDA-1.5-Demo/.

Data balancing across multiple modalities and sources appears in various forms in foundation models in machine learning and AI, e.g. in CLIP and DINO. We show that data balancing across modalities and sources actually offers an unsuspected benefit: variance reduction. We present a non-asymptotic statistical bound that quantifies this variance reduction effect and relates it to the eigenvalue decay of Markov operators. Furthermore, we describe how various forms of data balancing in contrastive multimodal learning and self-supervised clustering can be better understood, and even improved upon, owing to our variance reduction viewpoint.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

This study addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) for advertising campaigns in online marketplaces where complete randomized experimentation is infeasible. We propose two key innovations: (1) a shrinkage estimator that optimally combines observational and experimental data without assuming smooth treatment effects across campaigns, and (2) a Bayesian adaptive experimental design framework that efficiently selects campaigns for randomized evaluation that minimizes cumulative risk. Our shrinkage estimator achieves lower risk compared to existing methods by balancing bias-variance tradeoffs, while our adaptive design significantly reduces the costs of campaign randomization. We establish theoretical guarantees including asymptotic normality and regret bounds. In an application to Amazon Ads data analyzing 2,583 campaigns, our approach achieves equivalent estimation precision while requiring only half of the randomized experiments needed by random sampling, the standard method widely used in practice today. The proposed method serves as a practical solution for marketplace platforms to efficiently measure advertising effectiveness while managing experimentation costs.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

Sampling-based algorithms, which eliminate ''unimportant'' computations during forward and/or back propagation (BP), offer potential solutions to accelerate neural network training. However, since sampling introduces approximations to training, such algorithms may not consistently maintain accuracy across various tasks. In this work, we introduce a variance-controlled adaptive sampling (VCAS) method designed to accelerate BP. VCAS computes an unbiased stochastic gradient with fine-grained layerwise importance sampling in data dimension for activation gradient calculation and leverage score sampling in token dimension for weight gradient calculation. To preserve accuracy, we control the additional variance by learning the sample ratio jointly with model parameters during training. We assessed VCAS on multiple fine-tuning and pre-training tasks in both vision and natural language domains. On all the tasks, VCAS can preserve the original training loss trajectory and validation accuracy with an up to 73.87% FLOPs reduction of BP and 49.58% FLOPs reduction of the whole training process. The implementation is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/VCAS .

Variances in ad impression outcomes across demographic groups are increasingly considered to be potentially indicative of algorithmic bias in personalized ads systems. While there are many definitions of fairness that could be applicable in the context of personalized systems, we present a framework which we call the Variance Reduction System (VRS) for achieving more equitable outcomes in Meta's ads systems. VRS seeks to achieve a distribution of impressions with respect to selected protected class (PC) attributes that more closely aligns the demographics of an ad's eligible audience (a function of advertiser targeting criteria) with the audience who sees that ad, in a privacy-preserving manner. We first define metrics to quantify fairness gaps in terms of ad impression variances with respect to PC attributes including gender and estimated race. We then present the VRS for re-ranking ads in an impression variance-aware manner. We evaluate VRS via extensive simulations over different parameter choices and study the effect of the VRS on the chosen fairness metric. We finally present online A/B testing results from applying VRS to Meta's ads systems, concluding with a discussion of future work. We have deployed the VRS to all users in the US for housing ads, resulting in significant improvement in our fairness metric. VRS is the first large-scale deployed framework for pursuing fairness for multiple PC attributes in online advertising.

We consider the problem of Learning from Label Proportions (LLP), a weakly supervised classification setup where instances are grouped into "bags", and only the frequency of class labels at each bag is available. Albeit, the objective of the learner is to achieve low task loss at an individual instance level. Here we propose Easyllp: a flexible and simple-to-implement debiasing approach based on aggregate labels, which operates on arbitrary loss functions. Our technique allows us to accurately estimate the expected loss of an arbitrary model at an individual level. We showcase the flexibility of our approach by applying it to popular learning frameworks, like Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) and Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with provable guarantees on instance level performance. More concretely, we exhibit a variance reduction technique that makes the quality of LLP learning deteriorate only by a factor of k (k being bag size) in both ERM and SGD setups, as compared to full supervision. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on multiple datasets demonstrating our algorithm performs as well or better than previous LLP approaches in spite of its simplicity.

This tutorial gives a concise overview of existing PAC-Bayesian theory focusing on three generalization bounds. The first is an Occam bound which handles rules with finite precision parameters and which states that generalization loss is near training loss when the number of bits needed to write the rule is small compared to the sample size. The second is a PAC-Bayesian bound providing a generalization guarantee for posterior distributions rather than for individual rules. The PAC-Bayesian bound naturally handles infinite precision rule parameters, L_2 regularization, {\em provides a bound for dropout training}, and defines a natural notion of a single distinguished PAC-Bayesian posterior distribution. The third bound is a training-variance bound --- a kind of bias-variance analysis but with bias replaced by expected training loss. The training-variance bound dominates the other bounds but is more difficult to interpret. It seems to suggest variance reduction methods such as bagging and may ultimately provide a more meaningful analysis of dropouts.

Federated learning algorithms, such as FedAvg, are negatively affected by data heterogeneity and partial client participation. To mitigate the latter problem, global variance reduction methods, like FedVARP, leverage stale model updates for non-participating clients. These methods are effective under homogeneous client participation. Yet, this paper shows that, when some clients participate much less than others, aggregating updates with different levels of staleness can detrimentally affect the training process. Motivated by this observation, we introduce FedStale, a novel algorithm that updates the global model in each round through a convex combination of "fresh" updates from participating clients and "stale" updates from non-participating ones. By adjusting the weight in the convex combination, FedStale interpolates between FedAvg, which only uses fresh updates, and FedVARP, which treats fresh and stale updates equally. Our analysis of FedStale convergence yields the following novel findings: i) it integrates and extends previous FedAvg and FedVARP analyses to heterogeneous client participation; ii) it underscores how the least participating client influences convergence error; iii) it provides practical guidelines to best exploit stale updates, showing that their usefulness diminishes as data heterogeneity decreases and participation heterogeneity increases. Extensive experiments featuring diverse levels of client data and participation heterogeneity not only confirm these findings but also show that FedStale outperforms both FedAvg and FedVARP in many settings.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

As models for nature language processing (NLP), computer vision (CV) and recommendation systems (RS) require surging computation, a large number of GPUs/TPUs are paralleled as a large batch (LB) to improve training throughput. However, training such LB tasks often meets large generalization gap and downgrades final precision, which limits enlarging the batch size. In this work, we develop the variance reduced gradient descent technique (VRGD) based on the gradient signal to noise ratio (GSNR) and apply it onto popular optimizers such as SGD/Adam/LARS/LAMB. We carry out a theoretical analysis of convergence rate to explain its fast training dynamics, and a generalization analysis to demonstrate its smaller generalization gap on LB training. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that VRGD can accelerate training (1sim 2 times), narrow generalization gap and improve final accuracy. We push the batch size limit of BERT pretraining up to 128k/64k and DLRM to 512k without noticeable accuracy loss. We improve ImageNet Top-1 accuracy at 96k by 0.52pp than LARS. The generalization gap of BERT and ImageNet training is significantly reduce by over 65%.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

Standard policy gradients weight each sampled action by advantage alone, regardless of how likely that action was under the current policy. This creates two pathologies: within a single decision context (e.g. one image or prompt), a rare negative-advantage action can disproportionately distort the update direction; across many such contexts in a batch, the expected gradient over-allocates budget to contexts the policy already handles well. We introduce the Delightful Policy Gradient (DG), which gates each term with a sigmoid of delight, the product of advantage and action surprisal (negative log-probability). For K-armed bandits, DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and, across multiple contexts, shifts the expected gradient strictly closer to the supervised cross-entropy oracle. This second effect is not variance reduction: it persists even with infinite samples. Empirically, DG outperforms REINFORCE, PPO, and advantage-weighted baselines across MNIST, transformer sequence modeling, and continuous control, with larger gains on harder tasks.

We consider an online learning problem with one-sided feedback, in which the learner is able to observe the true label only for positively predicted instances. On each round, k instances arrive and receive classification outcomes according to a randomized policy deployed by the learner, whose goal is to maximize accuracy while deploying individually fair policies. We first extend the framework of Bechavod et al. (2020), which relies on the existence of a human fairness auditor for detecting fairness violations, to instead incorporate feedback from dynamically-selected panels of multiple, possibly inconsistent, auditors. We then construct an efficient reduction from our problem of online learning with one-sided feedback and a panel reporting fairness violations to the contextual combinatorial semi-bandit problem (Cesa-Bianchi & Lugosi, 2009, Gy\"{o}rgy et al., 2007). Finally, we show how to leverage the guarantees of two algorithms in the contextual combinatorial semi-bandit setting: Exp2 (Bubeck et al., 2012) and the oracle-efficient Context-Semi-Bandit-FTPL (Syrgkanis et al., 2016), to provide multi-criteria no regret guarantees simultaneously for accuracy and fairness. Our results eliminate two potential sources of bias from prior work: the "hidden outcomes" that are not available to an algorithm operating in the full information setting, and human biases that might be present in any single human auditor, but can be mitigated by selecting a well chosen panel.

Despite their remarkable ability to generalize with over-capacity networks, deep neural networks often learn to abuse spurious biases in the data instead of using the actual task-related information. Since such shortcuts are only effective within the collected dataset, the resulting biased model underperforms on real-world inputs, or cause unintended social repercussions such as gender discrimination. To counteract the influence of bias, existing methods either exploit auxiliary information which is rarely obtainable in practice, or sift for bias-free samples in the training data, hoping for the sufficient existence of clean samples. However, such presumptions about the data are not always guaranteed. In this paper, we propose Contrastive Debiasing via Generative Bias-transformation~(CDvG) which is capable of operating in more general environments where existing methods break down due to unmet presumptions such as insufficient bias-free samples. Motivated by our observation that not only discriminative models, as previously known, but also generative models tend to focus on the bias when possible, CDvG uses a translation model to transform the bias in the sample to another mode of bias while preserving task-relevant information. Through contrastive learning, we set transformed biased views against another, learning bias-invariant representations. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms the current state-of-the-arts, and effectively prevents the models from being biased even when bias-free samples are extremely scarce.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models have demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of generative tasks. However, we have observed that these models often suffer from a Signal-to-Noise Ratio-timestep (SNR-t) bias. This bias refers to the misalignment between the SNR of the denoising sample and its corresponding timestep during the inference phase. Specifically, during training, the SNR of a sample is strictly coupled with its timestep. However, this correspondence is disrupted during inference, leading to error accumulation and impairing the generation quality. We provide comprehensive empirical evidence and theoretical analysis to substantiate this phenomenon and propose a simple yet effective differential correction method to mitigate the SNR-t bias. Recognizing that diffusion models typically reconstruct low-frequency components before focusing on high-frequency details during the reverse denoising process, we decompose samples into various frequency components and apply differential correction to each component individually. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly improves the generation quality of various diffusion models (IDDPM, ADM, DDIM, A-DPM, EA-DPM, EDM, PFGM++, and FLUX) on datasets of various resolutions with negligible computational overhead. The code is at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/DCW.

A range of recent optimizers have emerged that approximate the same "matrix-whitening" transformation in various ways. In this work, we systematically deconstruct such optimizers, aiming to disentangle the key components that explain performance. Across tuned hyperparameters across the board, all flavors of matrix-whitening methods reliably outperform elementwise counterparts, such as Adam. Matrix-whitening is often related to spectral descent -- however, experiments reveal that performance gains are *not explained solely by accurate spectral normalization* -- particularly, SOAP displays the largest per-step gain, even though Muon more accurately descends along the steepest spectral descent direction. Instead, we argue that matrix-whitening serves two purposes, and the variance adaptation component of matrix-whitening is the overlooked ingredient explaining this performance gap. Experiments show that variance-adapted versions of optimizers consistently outperform their sign-descent counterparts, including an adaptive version of Muon. We further ablate variance adaptation strategies, finding that while lookahead style approximations are not as effective, low-rank variance estimators can effectively reduce memory costs without a performance loss.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Many machine learning algorithms are trained and evaluated by splitting data from a single source into training and test sets. While such focus on in-distribution learning scenarios has led to interesting advancement, it has not been able to tell if models are relying on dataset biases as shortcuts for successful prediction (e.g., using snow cues for recognising snowmobiles), resulting in biased models that fail to generalise when the bias shifts to a different class. The cross-bias generalisation problem has been addressed by de-biasing training data through augmentation or re-sampling, which are often prohibitive due to the data collection cost (e.g., collecting images of a snowmobile on a desert) and the difficulty of quantifying or expressing biases in the first place. In this work, we propose a novel framework to train a de-biased representation by encouraging it to be different from a set of representations that are biased by design. This tactic is feasible in many scenarios where it is much easier to define a set of biased representations than to define and quantify bias. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across a variety of synthetic and real-world biases; our experiments show that the method discourages models from taking bias shortcuts, resulting in improved generalisation. Source code is available at https://github.com/clovaai/rebias.

Despite recent advances in inversion-based editing, text-guided image manipulation remains challenging for diffusion models. The primary bottlenecks include 1) the time-consuming nature of the inversion process; 2) the struggle to balance consistency with accuracy; 3) the lack of compatibility with efficient consistency sampling methods used in consistency models. To address the above issues, we start by asking ourselves if the inversion process can be eliminated for editing. We show that when the initial sample is known, a special variance schedule reduces the denoising step to the same form as the multi-step consistency sampling. We name this Denoising Diffusion Consistent Model (DDCM), and note that it implies a virtual inversion strategy without explicit inversion in sampling. We further unify the attention control mechanisms in a tuning-free framework for text-guided editing. Combining them, we present inversion-free editing (InfEdit), which allows for consistent and faithful editing for both rigid and non-rigid semantic changes, catering to intricate modifications without compromising on the image's integrity and explicit inversion. Through extensive experiments, InfEdit shows strong performance in various editing tasks and also maintains a seamless workflow (less than 3 seconds on one single A40), demonstrating the potential for real-time applications. Project Page: https://sled-group.github.io/InfEdit/

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Large language models (LLMs) offer an inexpensive yet powerful way to annotate text, but are often inconsistent when compared with experts. These errors can bias downstream estimates of population parameters such as regression coefficients and causal effects. To mitigate this bias, researchers have developed debiasing methods such as Design-based Supervised Learning (DSL) and Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), which promise valid estimation by combining LLM annotations with a limited number of expensive expert annotations. Although these methods produce consistent estimates under theoretical assumptions, it is unknown how they compare in finite samples of sizes encountered in applied research. We make two contributions: First, we study how each method's performance scales with the number of expert annotations, highlighting regimes where LLM bias or limited expert labels significantly affect results. Second, we compare DSL and PPI across a range of tasks, finding that although both achieve low bias with large datasets, DSL often outperforms PPI on bias reduction and empirical efficiency, but its performance is less consistent across datasets. Our findings indicate that there is a bias-variance tradeoff at the level of debiasing methods, calling for more research on developing metrics for quantifying their efficiency in finite samples.

Existing reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training methods for large language models have advanced rapidly, yet their design has largely been guided by heuristics rather than systematic theoretical principles. This gap limits our understanding of the properties of the gradient estimators and the associated optimization algorithms, thereby constraining opportunities to improve training stability and overall performance. In this work, we provide a unified theoretical framework that characterizes the statistical properties of commonly used policy-gradient estimators under mild assumptions. Our analysis establishes unbiasedness, derives exact variance expressions, and yields an optimization-loss upper bound that enables principled reasoning about learning dynamics. Building on these results, we prove convergence guarantees and derive an adaptive learning-rate schedule governed by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of gradients. We further show that the variance-optimal baseline is a gradient-weighted estimator, offering a new principle for variance reduction and naturally enhancing stability beyond existing methods. These insights motivate Optimal Baseline and Learning-Rate Policy Optimization (OBLR-PO), an algorithm that jointly adapts learning rates and baselines in a theoretically grounded manner. Experiments on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base demonstrate consistent gains over existing policy optimization methods, validating that our theoretical contributions translate into practical improvements in large-scale post-training.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

We consider the problem of finding an input to a stochastic black box function such that the scalar output of the black box function is as close as possible to a target value in the sense of the expected squared error. While the optimization of stochastic black boxes is classic in (robust) Bayesian optimization, the current approaches based on Gaussian processes predominantly focus either on i) maximization/minimization rather than target value optimization or ii) on the expectation, but not the variance of the output, ignoring output variations due to stochasticity in uncontrollable environmental variables. In this work, we fill this gap and derive acquisition functions for common criteria such as the expected improvement, the probability of improvement, and the lower confidence bound, assuming that aleatoric effects are Gaussian with known variance. Our experiments illustrate that this setting is compatible with certain extensions of Gaussian processes, and show that the thus derived acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization even if the latter assumptions are violated. An industrial use case in billet forging is presented.

Bias mitigation in image classification has been widely researched, and existing methods have yielded notable results. However, most of these methods implicitly assume that a given image contains only one type of known or unknown bias, failing to consider the complexities of real-world biases. We introduce a more challenging scenario, agnostic biases mitigation, aiming at bias removal regardless of whether the type of bias or the number of types is unknown in the datasets. To address this difficult task, we present the Partition-and-Debias (PnD) method that uses a mixture of biases-specific experts to implicitly divide the bias space into multiple subspaces and a gating module to find a consensus among experts to achieve debiased classification. Experiments on both public and constructed benchmarks demonstrated the efficacy of the PnD. Code is available at: https://github.com/Jiaxuan-Li/PnD.

Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across 20 reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to N=80 trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard Bayes_{U}@80 (mean Kendall's τ_b = 0.93--0.95), and 19--34 methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach τ_b approx 0.86. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior (Bayes_{R_0}@N) reduces variance at N=1 by 16--52%, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Although large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their effectiveness in a wide range of applications, they have also been observed to perpetuate unwanted biases present in the training data, potentially leading to harm for marginalized communities. In this paper, we mitigate bias by leveraging small biased and anti-biased expert models to obtain a debiasing signal that will be added to the LLM output at decoding-time. This approach combines resource efficiency with interpretability and can be optimized for mitigating specific types of bias, depending on the target use case. Experiments on mitigating gender, race, and religion biases show a reduction in bias on several local and global bias metrics while preserving language model performance.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffers from training collapse in long-horizon tasks due to exploding gradient variance. To mitigate this, a baseline is commonly introduced for advantage computation; however, traditional value models remain difficult to optimize, and standard group-based baselines overlook sequence heterogeneity. Although classic optimal baseline theory can achieve global variance reduction, it neglects token heterogeneity and requires prohibitive gradient-based computation. In this work, we derive the Optimal Token Baseline (OTB) from first principles, proving that gradient updates should be weighted inversely to their cumulative gradient norm. To ensure efficiency, we propose the Logit-Gradient Proxy that approximates the gradient norm using only forward-pass probabilities. Our method achieves training stability and matches the performance of large group sizes (N=32) with only N=4, reducing token consumption by over 65% across single-turn and tool-integrated reasoning tasks.

We introduce a new framework for sample-efficient model evaluation that we call active testing. While approaches like active learning reduce the number of labels needed for model training, existing literature largely ignores the cost of labeling test data, typically unrealistically assuming large test sets for model evaluation. This creates a disconnect to real applications, where test labels are important and just as expensive, e.g. for optimizing hyperparameters. Active testing addresses this by carefully selecting the test points to label, ensuring model evaluation is sample-efficient. To this end, we derive theoretically-grounded and intuitive acquisition strategies that are specifically tailored to the goals of active testing, noting these are distinct to those of active learning. As actively selecting labels introduces a bias; we further show how to remove this bias while reducing the variance of the estimator at the same time. Active testing is easy to implement and can be applied to any supervised machine learning method. We demonstrate its effectiveness on models including WideResNets and Gaussian processes on datasets including Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-100.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Text-to-Image (T2I) generative models have revolutionized content creation, yet they inherently risk amplifying societal biases. While sociological research provides systematic classifications of bias, existing T2I benchmarks largely conflate these nuances or focus narrowly on occupational stereotypes, leaving the multi-dimensional nature of generative bias inadequately measured. In this paper, we introduce BiasIG, a unified benchmark that quantifies social biases across a curated dataset of 47,040 prompts. Grounded in sociological and machine ethics frameworks, BiasIG disentangles biases across 4 dimensions to enable fine-grained diagnosis. To facilitate scalable and reliable evaluation, we propose a fully automated pipeline powered by a fine-tuned multi-modal large language model, achieving high alignment accuracy comparable to human experts. Extensive experiments on 8 T2I models and 3 debiasing methods not only validate BiasIG as a robust diagnostic tool, but also reveal critical insights: interventions on protected attributes often trigger unintended confounding effects on unrelated demographics, and debiasing methods exhibit a persistent tendency toward discrimination rather than mere ignorance. Our work advocates for a precise, taxonomy-driven approach to fairness in AIGC, providing a theoretical framework for using BiasIG's metrics as feedback signals in future closed-loop mitigation. The benchmark is openly available at https://github.com/Astarojth/BiasIG.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve mgg 1 lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling I blocks and sampling B samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of O(mepsilon^{-3I(I<m)}{II} + mepsilon^{-3}{IB}) for finding an epsilon-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

Convolutional Neural Networks have demonstrated dermatologist-level performance in the classification of melanoma from skin lesion images, but prediction irregularities due to biases seen within the training data are an issue that should be addressed before widespread deployment is possible. In this work, we robustly remove bias and spurious variation from an automated melanoma classification pipeline using two leading bias unlearning techniques. We show that the biases introduced by surgical markings and rulers presented in previous studies can be reasonably mitigated using these bias removal methods. We also demonstrate the generalisation benefits of unlearning spurious variation relating to the imaging instrument used to capture lesion images. Our experimental results provide evidence that the effects of each of the aforementioned biases are notably reduced, with different debiasing techniques excelling at different tasks.

Post-training paradigms for Large Language Models (LLMs), primarily Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), face a fundamental dilemma: SFT provides stability (low variance) but suffers from high fitting bias, while RL enables exploration (low bias) but grapples with high gradient variance. Existing unified optimization strategies often employ naive loss weighting, overlooking the statistical conflict between these distinct gradient signals. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of this bias-variance trade-off and propose DYPO (Dynamic Policy Optimization), a unified framework designed to structurally mitigate this conflict. DYPO integrates three core components: (1) a Group Alignment Loss (GAL) that leverages intrinsic group dynamics to significantly reduce RL gradient variance; (2) a Multi-Teacher Distillation mechanism that corrects SFT fitting bias via diverse reasoning paths; and (3) a Dynamic Exploitation-Exploration Gating mechanism that adaptively arbitrates between stable SFT and exploratory RL based on reward feedback. Theoretical analysis confirms that DYPO linearly reduces fitting bias and minimizes overall variance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DYPO significantly outperforms traditional sequential pipelines, achieving an average improvement of 4.8\% on complex reasoning benchmarks and 13.3\% on out-of-distribution tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tocci-Zhu/DYPO.

The robust generalization of models to rare, in-distribution (ID) samples drawn from the long tail of the training distribution and to out-of-training-distribution (OOD) samples is one of the major challenges of current deep learning methods. For image classification, this manifests in the existence of adversarial attacks, the performance drops on distorted images, and a lack of generalization to concepts such as sketches. The current understanding of generalization in neural networks is very limited, but some biases that differentiate models from human vision have been identified and might be causing these limitations. Consequently, several attempts with varying success have been made to reduce these biases during training to improve generalization. We take a step back and sanity-check these attempts. Fixing the architecture to the well-established ResNet-50, we perform a large-scale study on 48 ImageNet models obtained via different training methods to understand how and if these biases - including shape bias, spectral biases, and critical bands - interact with generalization. Our extensive study results reveal that contrary to previous findings, these biases are insufficient to accurately predict the generalization of a model holistically. We provide access to all checkpoints and evaluation code at https://github.com/paulgavrikov/biases_vs_generalization

Visual anagrams are images that change appearance upon transformation, like flipping or rotation. With the advent of diffusion models, generating such optical illusions can be achieved by averaging noise across multiple views during the reverse denoising process. However, we observe two critical failure modes in this approach: (i) concept segregation, where concepts in different views are independently generated, which can not be considered a true anagram, and (ii) concept domination, where certain concepts overpower others. In this work, we cast the visual anagram generation problem in a multi-task learning setting, where different viewpoint prompts are analogous to different tasks,and derive denoising trajectories that align well across tasks simultaneously. At the core of our designed framework are two newly introduced techniques, where (i) an anti-segregation optimization strategy that promotes overlap in cross-attention maps between different concepts, and (ii) a noise vector balancing method that adaptively adjusts the influence of different tasks. Additionally, we observe that directly averaging noise predictions yields suboptimal performance because statistical properties may not be preserved, prompting us to derive a noise variance rectification method. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate our method's superior ability to generate visual anagrams spanning diverse concepts.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

Diffusion models have demonstrated compelling generation quality by optimizing the variational lower bound through a simple denoising score matching loss. In this paper, we provide theoretical evidence that the prevailing practice of using a constant loss weight strategy in diffusion models leads to biased estimation during the training phase. Simply optimizing the denoising network to predict Gaussian noise with constant weighting may hinder precise estimations of original images. To address the issue, we propose an elegant and effective weighting strategy grounded in the theoretically unbiased principle. Moreover, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic exploration to dissect the inherent bias problem deriving from constant weighting loss from the perspectives of its existence, impact and reasons. These analyses are expected to advance our understanding and demystify the inner workings of diffusion models. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that our proposed debiased estimation method significantly enhances sample quality without the reliance on complex techniques, and exhibits improved efficiency compared to the baseline method both in training and sampling processes.

We study how to learn ε-optimal strategies in zero-sum imperfect information games (IIG) with trajectory feedback. In this setting, players update their policies sequentially based on their observations over a fixed number of episodes, denoted by T. Existing procedures suffer from high variance due to the use of importance sampling over sequences of actions (Steinberger et al., 2020; McAleer et al., 2022). To reduce this variance, we consider a fixed sampling approach, where players still update their policies over time, but with observations obtained through a given fixed sampling policy. Our approach is based on an adaptive Online Mirror Descent (OMD) algorithm that applies OMD locally to each information set, using individually decreasing learning rates and a regularized loss. We show that this approach guarantees a convergence rate of mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2}) with high probability and has a near-optimal dependence on the game parameters when applied with the best theoretical choices of learning rates and sampling policies. To achieve these results, we generalize the notion of OMD stabilization, allowing for time-varying regularization with convex increments.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

As machine learning (ML) systems increasingly impact critical sectors such as hiring, financial risk assessments, and criminal justice, the imperative to ensure fairness has intensified due to potential negative implications. While much ML fairness research has focused on enhancing training data and processes, addressing the outputs of already deployed systems has received less attention. This paper introduces 'BiasGuard', a novel approach designed to act as a fairness guardrail in production ML systems. BiasGuard leverages Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) powered by Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), a cutting-edge generative AI model, to synthesize data samples conditioned on inverted protected attribute values, thereby promoting equitable outcomes across diverse groups. This method aims to provide equal opportunities for both privileged and unprivileged groups while significantly enhancing the fairness metrics of deployed systems without the need for retraining. Our comprehensive experimental analysis across diverse datasets reveals that BiasGuard enhances fairness by 31% while only reducing accuracy by 0.09% compared to non-mitigated benchmarks. Additionally, BiasGuard outperforms existing post-processing methods in improving fairness, positioning it as an effective tool to safeguard against biases when retraining the model is impractical.

Federated learning and gossip learning are emerging methodologies designed to mitigate data privacy concerns by retaining training data on client devices and exclusively sharing locally-trained machine learning (ML) models with others. The primary distinction between the two lies in their approach to model aggregation: federated learning employs a centralized parameter server, whereas gossip learning adopts a fully decentralized mechanism, enabling direct model exchanges among nodes. This decentralized nature often positions gossip learning as less efficient compared to federated learning. Both methodologies involve a critical step: computing a representation of received ML models and integrating this representation into the existing model. Conventionally, this representation is derived by averaging the received models, exemplified by the FedAVG algorithm. Our findings suggest that this averaging approach inherently introduces a potential delay in model convergence. We identify the underlying cause and refer to it as the "vanishing variance" problem, where averaging across uncorrelated ML models undermines the optimal variance established by the Xavier weight initialization. Unlike federated learning where the central server ensures model correlation, and unlike traditional gossip learning which circumvents this problem through model partitioning and sampling, our research introduces a variance-corrected model averaging algorithm. This novel algorithm preserves the optimal variance needed during model averaging, irrespective of network topology or non-IID data distributions. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach enables gossip learning to achieve convergence efficiency comparable to that of federated learning.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

The proliferation of machine learning models in critical decision making processes has underscored the need for bias discovery and mitigation strategies. Identifying the reasons behind a biased system is not straightforward, since in many occasions they are associated with hidden spurious correlations which are not easy to spot. Standard approaches rely on bias audits performed by analyzing model performance in pre-defined subgroups of data samples, usually characterized by common attributes like gender or ethnicity when it comes to people, or other specific attributes defining semantically coherent groups of images. However, it is not always possible to know a-priori the specific attributes defining the failure modes of visual recognition systems. Recent approaches propose to discover these groups by leveraging large vision language models, which enable the extraction of cross-modal embeddings and the generation of textual descriptions to characterize the subgroups where a certain model is underperforming. In this work, we argue that incorporating visual explanations (e.g. heatmaps generated via GradCAM or other approaches) can boost the performance of such bias discovery and mitigation frameworks. To this end, we introduce Visually Grounded Bias Discovery and Mitigation (ViG-Bias), a simple yet effective technique which can be integrated to a variety of existing frameworks to improve both, discovery and mitigation performance. Our comprehensive evaluation shows that incorporating visual explanations enhances existing techniques like DOMINO, FACTS and Bias-to-Text, across several challenging datasets, including CelebA, Waterbirds, and NICO++.

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Diffusion models (DMs) excel in image generation, but suffer from slow inference and the training-inference discrepancies. Although gradient-based solvers like DPM-Solver accelerate the denoising inference, they lack theoretical foundations in information transmission efficiency. In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic perspective on the inference processes of DMs, revealing that successful denoising fundamentally reduces conditional entropy in reverse transitions. This principle leads to our key insights into the inference processes: (1) data prediction parameterization outperforms its noise counterpart, and (2) optimizing conditional variance offers a reference-free way to minimize both transition and reconstruction errors. Based on these insights, we propose an entropy-aware variance optimized method for the generative process of DMs, called EVODiff, which systematically reduces uncertainty by optimizing conditional entropy during denoising. Extensive experiments on DMs validate our insights and demonstrate that our method significantly and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) gradient-based solvers. For example, compared to the DPM-Solver++, EVODiff reduces the reconstruction error by up to 45.5\% (FID improves from 5.10 to 2.78) at 10 function evaluations (NFE) on CIFAR-10, cuts the NFE cost by 25\% (from 20 to 15 NFE) for high-quality samples on ImageNet-256, and improves text-to-image generation while reducing artifacts. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguiLi/EVODiff.

As one of the most successful generative models, diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable efficacy in synthesizing high-quality images. These models learn the underlying high-dimensional data distribution in an unsupervised manner. Despite their success, diffusion models are highly data-driven and prone to inheriting the imbalances and biases present in real-world data. Some studies have attempted to address these issues by designing text prompts for known biases or using bias labels to construct unbiased data. While these methods have shown improved results, real-world scenarios often contain various unknown biases, and obtaining bias labels is particularly challenging. In this paper, we emphasize the necessity of mitigating bias in pre-trained diffusion models without relying on auxiliary bias annotations. To tackle this problem, we propose a framework, InvDiff, which aims to learn invariant semantic information for diffusion guidance. Specifically, we propose identifying underlying biases in the training data and designing a novel debiasing training objective. Then, we employ a lightweight trainable module that automatically preserves invariant semantic information and uses it to guide the diffusion model's sampling process toward unbiased outcomes simultaneously. Notably, we only need to learn a small number of parameters in the lightweight learnable module without altering the pre-trained diffusion model. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical guarantee that the implementation of InvDiff is equivalent to reducing the error upper bound of generalization. Extensive experimental results on three publicly available benchmarks demonstrate that InvDiff effectively reduces biases while maintaining the quality of image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/Hundredl/InvDiff.

Multimodal learning often encounters the under-optimized problem and may perform worse than unimodal learning. Existing approaches attribute this issue to imbalanced learning across modalities and tend to address it through gradient balancing. However, this paper argues that balanced learning is not the optimal setting for multimodal learning. With bias-variance analysis, we prove that imbalanced dependency on each modality obeying the inverse ratio of their variances contributes to optimal performance. To this end, we propose the Asymmetric Representation Learning(ARL) strategy to assist multimodal learning via imbalanced optimization. ARL introduces auxiliary regularizers for each modality encoder to calculate their prediction variance. ARL then calculates coefficients via the unimodal variance to re-weight the optimization of each modality, forcing the modality dependence ratio to be inversely proportional to the modality variance ratio. Moreover, to minimize the generalization error, ARL further introduces the prediction bias of each modality and jointly optimizes them with multimodal loss. Notably, all auxiliary regularizers share parameters with the multimodal model and rely only on the modality representation. Thus the proposed ARL strategy introduces no extra parameters and is independent of the structures and fusion methods of the multimodal model. Finally, extensive experiments on various datasets validate the effectiveness and versatility of ARL. Code is available at https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL{https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL}

With the rapid growth in model size, fine-tuning the large pre-trained language model has become increasingly difficult due to its extensive memory usage. Previous works usually focus on reducing the number of trainable parameters in the network. While the model parameters do contribute to memory usage, the primary memory bottleneck during training arises from storing feature maps, also known as activations, as they are crucial for gradient calculation. Notably, neural networks are usually trained using stochastic gradient descent. We argue that in stochastic optimization, models can handle noisy gradients as long as the gradient estimator is unbiased with reasonable variance. Following this motivation, we propose a new family of unbiased estimators called WTA-CRS, for matrix production with reduced variance, which only requires storing the sub-sampled activations for calculating the gradient. Our work provides both theoretical and experimental evidence that, in the context of tuning transformers, our proposed estimators exhibit lower variance compared to existing ones. By replacing the linear operation with our approximated one in transformers, we can achieve up to 2.7times peak memory reduction with almost no accuracy drop and enables up to 6.4times larger batch size. Under the same hardware, WTA-CRS enables better down-streaming task performance by applying larger models and/or faster training speed with larger batch sizes.

Despite significant research efforts, deep neural networks are still vulnerable to biases: this raises concerns about their fairness and limits their generalization. In this paper, we propose a bias-agnostic approach to mitigate the impact of bias in deep neural networks. Unlike traditional debiasing approaches, we rely on a metric to quantify ``bias alignment/misalignment'' on target classes, and use this information to discourage the propagation of bias-target alignment information through the network. We conduct experiments on several commonly used datasets for debiasing and compare our method to supervised and bias-specific approaches. Our results indicate that the proposed method achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art supervised approaches, although it is bias-agnostic, even in presence of multiple biases in the same sample.

LLM-as-a-Judge has been widely adopted across various research and practical applications, yet the robustness and reliability of its evaluation remain a critical issue. A core challenge it faces is bias, which has primarily been studied in terms of known biases and their impact on evaluation outcomes, while automated and systematic exploration of potential unknown biases is still lacking. Nevertheless, such exploration is crucial for enhancing the robustness and reliability of evaluations. To bridge this gap, we propose BiasScope, a LLM-driven framework for automatically and at scale discovering potential biases that may arise during model evaluation. BiasScope can uncover potential biases across different model families and scales, with its generality and effectiveness validated on the JudgeBench dataset. It overcomes the limitations of existing approaches, transforming bias discovery from a passive process relying on manual effort and predefined bias lists into an active and comprehensive automated exploration. Moreover, based on BiasScope, we propose JudgeBench-Pro, an extended version of JudgeBench and a more challenging benchmark for evaluating the robustness of LLM-as-a-judge. Strikingly, even powerful LLMs as evaluators show error rates above 50\% on JudgeBench-Pro, underscoring the urgent need to strengthen evaluation robustness and to mitigate potential biases further.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as evaluators in lieu of humans. While scalable, their judgments are noisy due to imperfect specificity and sensitivity of LLMs, leading to biased accuracy estimates. Although bias-correction methods exist, they are underutilized in LLM research and typically assume exact knowledge of the model's specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, in general we only have estimates of these values and it is not well known how to properly construct confidence intervals using only estimates. This work presents a simple plug-in framework that corrects such bias and constructs confidence intervals reflecting uncertainty from both test and calibration dataset, enabling practical and statistically sound LLM-based evaluation. Additionally, to reduce uncertainty in the accuracy estimate, we introduce an adaptive algorithm that efficiently allocates calibration sample sizes.

Training large language models to reason with search engines via reinforcement learning is hindered by a fundamental credit assignment problem: existing methods such as Search-R1 provide only a sparse outcome reward after an entire multi-step trajectory, making it infeasible to attribute success or failure to individual reasoning and retrieval decisions. Process-reward methods like StepSearch alleviate this by introducing step-level supervision, but rely on heuristic rewards such as TF-IDF overlap with gold documents, and still sample k complete trajectories per example, retaining high gradient variance. We propose SLATE, a framework built on two complementary ideas: (1) truncated step-level sampling, which generates k trajectories that share a common prefix and differ only at the next step, and (2) dense LLM-as-judge rewards, which replace heuristic scoring with a capable LLM evaluator that assesses the quality of each reasoning step, search query, and answer, providing richer and more reliable supervision. We theoretically prove that under the same dense reward structure, truncated sampling reduces the variance of advantage estimates by up to a factor of T compared to full-trajectory sampling for T-step trajectories, yielding lower-variance, better-targeted policy gradients. Experiments on seven QA benchmarks confirm that SLATE consistently outperforms both sparse-reward and process-reward baselines, with the largest gains on harder multi-hop tasks and smaller models.

State-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) models often learn to model dataset biases and surface form correlations instead of features that target the intended underlying task. Previous work has demonstrated effective methods to circumvent these issues when knowledge of the bias is available. We consider cases where the bias issues may not be explicitly identified, and show a method for training models that learn to ignore these problematic correlations. Our approach relies on the observation that models with limited capacity primarily learn to exploit biases in the dataset. We can leverage the errors of such limited capacity models to train a more robust model in a product of experts, thus bypassing the need to hand-craft a biased model. We show the effectiveness of this method to retain improvements in out-of-distribution settings even if no particular bias is targeted by the biased model.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Can we modify the training data distribution to encourage the underlying optimization method toward finding solutions with superior generalization performance on in-distribution data? In this work, we approach this question for the first time by comparing the inductive bias of gradient descent (GD) with that of sharpness-aware minimization (SAM). By studying a two-layer CNN, we rigorously prove that SAM learns different features more uniformly, particularly in early epochs. That is, SAM is less susceptible to simplicity bias compared to GD. We also show that examples containing features that are learned early are separable from the rest based on the model's output. Based on this observation, we propose a method that (i) clusters examples based on the network output early in training, (ii) identifies a cluster of examples with similar network output, and (iii) upsamples the rest of examples only once to alleviate the simplicity bias. We show empirically that USEFUL effectively improves the generalization performance on the original data distribution when training with various gradient methods, including (S)GD and SAM. Notably, we demonstrate that our method can be combined with SAM variants and existing data augmentation strategies to achieve, to the best of our knowledge, state-of-the-art performance for training ResNet18 on CIFAR10, STL10, CINIC10, Tiny-ImageNet; ResNet34 on CIFAR100; and VGG19 and DenseNet121 on CIFAR10.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPM) have shown remarkable efficacy in the synthesis of high-quality images. However, their inference process characteristically requires numerous, potentially hundreds, of iterative steps, which could exaggerate the problem of exposure bias due to the training and inference discrepancy. Previous work has attempted to mitigate this issue by perturbing inputs during training, which consequently mandates the retraining of the DPM. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of exposure bias in DPM and, intriguingly, we find that the exposure bias could be alleviated with a novel sampling method that we propose, without retraining the model. We empirically and theoretically show that, during inference, for each backward time step t and corresponding state x_t, there might exist another time step t_s which exhibits superior coupling with x_t. Based on this finding, we introduce a sampling method named Time-Shift Sampler. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated to existing sampling algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM and other high-order solvers, inducing merely minimal additional computations. Experimental results show our method brings significant and consistent improvements in FID scores on different datasets and sampling methods. For example, integrating Time-Shift Sampler to F-PNDM yields a FID=3.88, achieving 44.49\% improvements as compared to F-PNDM, on CIFAR-10 with 10 sampling steps, which is more performant than the vanilla DDIM with 100 sampling steps. Our code is available at https://github.com/Mingxiao-Li/TS-DPM.

While backpropagation (BP) is the mainstream approach for gradient computation in neural network training, its heavy reliance on the chain rule of differentiation constrains the designing flexibility of network architecture and training pipelines. We avoid the recursive computation in BP and develop a unified likelihood ratio (ULR) method for gradient estimation with just one forward propagation. Not only can ULR be extended to train a wide variety of neural network architectures, but the computation flow in BP can also be rearranged by ULR for better device adaptation. Moreover, we propose several variance reduction techniques to further accelerate the training process. Our experiments offer numerical results across diverse aspects, including various neural network training scenarios, computation flow rearrangement, and fine-tuning of pre-trained models. All findings demonstrate that ULR effectively enhances the flexibility of neural network training by permitting localized module training without compromising the global objective and significantly boosts the network robustness.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

Score distillation has emerged as one of the most prevalent approaches for text-to-3D asset synthesis. Essentially, score distillation updates 3D parameters by lifting and back-propagating scores averaged over different views. In this paper, we reveal that the gradient estimation in score distillation is inherent to high variance. Through the lens of variance reduction, the effectiveness of SDS and VSD can be interpreted as applications of various control variates to the Monte Carlo estimator of the distilled score. Motivated by this rethinking and based on Stein's identity, we propose a more general solution to reduce variance for score distillation, termed Stein Score Distillation (SSD). SSD incorporates control variates constructed by Stein identity, allowing for arbitrary baseline functions. This enables us to include flexible guidance priors and network architectures to explicitly optimize for variance reduction. In our experiments, the overall pipeline, dubbed SteinDreamer, is implemented by instantiating the control variate with a monocular depth estimator. The results suggest that SSD can effectively reduce the distillation variance and consistently improve visual quality for both object- and scene-level generation. Moreover, we demonstrate that SteinDreamer achieves faster convergence than existing methods due to more stable gradient updates.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) enhances LLM reasoning, yet a paradox emerges as models scale: strong base models saturate standard benchmarks (e.g., MATH), yielding correct but homogeneous solutions. In such environments, the lack of failure cases causes the advantage signal in group-relative algorithms (e.g., GRPO) to vanish, driving policies into mode collapse. To address this, we propose Constrained Uniform Top-K Sampling (CUTS), a parameter-free decoding strategy enforcing structure-preserving exploration. Unlike standard sampling that follows model biases, CUTS flattens the local optimization landscape by sampling uniformly from constrained high-confidence candidates. We integrate this into Mixed-CUTS, a training framework synergizing exploitative and exploratory rollouts to amplify intra-group advantage variance. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate that our approach prevents policy degeneration and significantly boosts out-of-domain generalization. Notably, Mixed-CUTS improves Pass@1 accuracy on the challenging AIME25 benchmark by up to 15.1% over standard GRPO, validating that maintaining diversity within the semantic manifold is critical for rigorous reasoning.

Existing denoising generative models rely on solving discretized reverse-time SDEs or ODEs. In this paper, we identify a long-overlooked yet pervasive issue in this family of models: a misalignment between the pre-defined noise level and the actual noise level encoded in intermediate states during sampling. We refer to this misalignment as noise shift. Through empirical analysis, we demonstrate that noise shift is widespread in modern diffusion models and exhibits a systematic bias, leading to sub-optimal generation due to both out-of-distribution generalization and inaccurate denoising updates. To address this problem, we propose Noise Awareness Guidance (NAG), a simple yet effective correction method that explicitly steers sampling trajectories to remain consistent with the pre-defined noise schedule. We further introduce a classifier-free variant of NAG, which jointly trains a noise-conditional and a noise-unconditional model via noise-condition dropout, thereby eliminating the need for external classifiers. Extensive experiments, including ImageNet generation and various supervised fine-tuning tasks, show that NAG consistently mitigates noise shift and substantially improves the generation quality of mainstream diffusion models.

Pretrained diffusion models serve as frozen teachers feeding downstream pipelines such as text-to-3D, single-step distillation, and data attribution. The teacher gradients these pipelines consume are Monte Carlo (MC) expectations over noise levels and Gaussian noise samples; their estimator variance dominates compute cost because each draw requires expensive upstream work (rendering, simulation, encoding). We introduce CARV, a compute-aware variance-accounting framework that motivates a hierarchical MC estimator: amortize the expensive upstream computation over cheap diffusion-noise resamples, sharpened by timestep importance sampling and a stratified-inverse-CDF construction. In our text-to-3D distillation and attribution experiments, CARV delivers 2-3x effective compute multipliers (most from amortized reuse; ~25% additional from IS+stratification) without changing the objective; in single-step distillation, the same techniques cut gradient variance by an order of magnitude but do not improve downstream FID, marking the regime where MC variance is no longer the bottleneck.

Several works have proposed Simplicity Bias (SB)---the tendency of standard training procedures such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to find simple models---to justify why neural networks generalize well [Arpit et al. 2017, Nakkiran et al. 2019, Soudry et al. 2018]. However, the precise notion of simplicity remains vague. Furthermore, previous settings that use SB to theoretically justify why neural networks generalize well do not simultaneously capture the non-robustness of neural networks---a widely observed phenomenon in practice [Goodfellow et al. 2014, Jo and Bengio 2017]. We attempt to reconcile SB and the superior standard generalization of neural networks with the non-robustness observed in practice by designing datasets that (a) incorporate a precise notion of simplicity, (b) comprise multiple predictive features with varying levels of simplicity, and (c) capture the non-robustness of neural networks trained on real data. Through theory and empirics on these datasets, we make four observations: (i) SB of SGD and variants can be extreme: neural networks can exclusively rely on the simplest feature and remain invariant to all predictive complex features. (ii) The extreme aspect of SB could explain why seemingly benign distribution shifts and small adversarial perturbations significantly degrade model performance. (iii) Contrary to conventional wisdom, SB can also hurt generalization on the same data distribution, as SB persists even when the simplest feature has less predictive power than the more complex features. (iv) Common approaches to improve generalization and robustness---ensembles and adversarial training---can fail in mitigating SB and its pitfalls. Given the role of SB in training neural networks, we hope that the proposed datasets and methods serve as an effective testbed to evaluate novel algorithmic approaches aimed at avoiding the pitfalls of SB.

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Diffusion models are widely used for generative tasks across domains. Given a pre-trained diffusion model, it is often desirable to fine-tune it further either to correct for errors in learning or to align with downstream applications. Towards this, we examine the effect of shaping the distribution at intermediate noise levels induced by diffusion models. First, we show that existing variants of Rejection sAmpling based Fine-Tuning (RAFT), which we unify as GRAFT, can implicitly perform KL regularized reward maximization with reshaped rewards. Motivated by this observation, we introduce P-GRAFT to shape distributions at intermediate noise levels and demonstrate empirically that this can lead to more effective fine-tuning. We mathematically explain this via a bias-variance tradeoff. Next, we look at correcting learning errors in pre-trained flow models based on the developed mathematical framework. In particular, we propose inverse noise correction, a novel algorithm to improve the quality of pre-trained flow models without explicit rewards. We empirically evaluate our methods on text-to-image(T2I) generation, layout generation, molecule generation and unconditional image generation. Notably, our framework, applied to Stable Diffusion v2, improves over policy gradient methods on popular T2I benchmarks in terms of VQAScore and shows an 8.81% relative improvement over the base model. For unconditional image generation, inverse noise correction improves FID of generated images at lower FLOPs/image.

We systematically study antithetic initial noise in diffusion models, discovering that pairing each noise sample with its negation consistently produces strong negative correlation. This universal phenomenon holds across datasets, model architectures, conditional and unconditional sampling, and even other generative models such as VAEs and Normalizing Flows. To explain it, we combine experiments and theory and propose a symmetry conjecture that the learned score function is approximately affine antisymmetric (odd symmetry up to a constant shift), supported by empirical evidence. This negative correlation leads to substantially more reliable uncertainty quantification with up to 90% narrower confidence intervals. We demonstrate these gains on tasks including estimating pixel-wise statistics and evaluating diffusion inverse solvers. We also provide extensions with randomized quasi-Monte Carlo noise designs for uncertainty quantification, and explore additional applications of the antithetic noise design to improve image editing and generation diversity. Our framework is training-free, model-agnostic, and adds no runtime overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/jjia131/Antithetic-Noise-in-Diffusion-Models-page.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Developing models with robust group fairness properties is paramount, particularly in ethically sensitive domains such as medical diagnosis. Recent approaches to achieving fairness in machine learning require a substantial amount of training data and depend on model retraining, which may not be practical in real-world scenarios. To mitigate these challenges, we propose Bias-based Weight Masking Fine-Tuning (BMFT), a novel post-processing method that enhances the fairness of a trained model in significantly fewer epochs without requiring access to the original training data. BMFT produces a mask over model parameters, which efficiently identifies the weights contributing the most towards biased predictions. Furthermore, we propose a two-step debiasing strategy, wherein the feature extractor undergoes initial fine-tuning on the identified bias-influenced weights, succeeded by a fine-tuning phase on a reinitialised classification layer to uphold discriminative performance. Extensive experiments across four dermatological datasets and two sensitive attributes demonstrate that BMFT outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques in both diagnostic accuracy and fairness metrics. Our findings underscore the efficacy and robustness of BMFT in advancing fairness across various out-of-distribution (OOD) settings. Our code is available at: https://github.com/vios-s/BMFT

We introduce Gradient Agreement Filtering (GAF) to improve on gradient averaging in distributed deep learning optimization. Traditional distributed data-parallel stochastic gradient descent involves averaging gradients of microbatches to calculate a macrobatch gradient that is then used to update model parameters. We find that gradients across microbatches are often orthogonal or negatively correlated, especially in late stages of training, which leads to memorization of the training set, reducing generalization. In this paper, we introduce a simple, computationally effective way to reduce gradient variance by computing the cosine distance between micro-gradients during training and filtering out conflicting updates prior to averaging. We improve validation accuracy with significantly smaller microbatch sizes. We also show this reduces memorizing noisy labels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on standard image classification benchmarks including CIFAR-100 and CIFAR-100N-Fine. We show this technique consistently outperforms validation accuracy, in some cases by up to 18.2\% compared to traditional training approaches while reducing the computation required nearly an order of magnitude because we can now rely on smaller microbatch sizes without destabilizing training.

The rapid adoption of text-to-image diffusion models in society underscores an urgent need to address their biases. Without interventions, these biases could propagate a skewed worldview and restrict opportunities for minority groups. In this work, we frame fairness as a distributional alignment problem. Our solution consists of two main technical contributions: (1) a distributional alignment loss that steers specific characteristics of the generated images towards a user-defined target distribution, and (2) adjusted direct finetuning of diffusion model's sampling process (adjusted DFT), which leverages an adjusted gradient to directly optimize losses defined on the generated images. Empirically, our method markedly reduces gender, racial, and their intersectional biases for occupational prompts. Gender bias is significantly reduced even when finetuning just five soft tokens. Crucially, our method supports diverse perspectives of fairness beyond absolute equality, which is demonstrated by controlling age to a 75% young and 25% old distribution while simultaneously debiasing gender and race. Finally, our method is scalable: it can debias multiple concepts at once by simply including these prompts in the finetuning data. We share code and various fair diffusion model adaptors at https://sail-sg.github.io/finetune-fair-diffusion/.

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking, implicitly assuming all features are equally predictable. In reality, laboratory tests exhibit substantial heterogeneity in volatility: some biomarkers (e.g., sodium) remain stable, while others (e.g., lactate) fluctuate considerably and are more difficult to model. Clinically, volatile biomarkers often signal acute pathophysiology and require more sophisticated modeling to capture their complex temporal patterns. We propose a volatility-aware pretraining strategy, Coefficient of Variation Masking (CV-Masking), that adaptively adjusts masking probabilities according to the intrinsic variability of each feature. Combined with a value-only masking objective aligned with clinical workflows, CV-Masking yields systematic improvements over random and variance-based strategies. Experiments on a large panel of laboratory tests show that CV-Masking enhances reconstruction, improves downstream predictive performance, and accelerates convergence, producing more robust and clinically meaningful EHR representations.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit systematic preferences for certain answer choices when responding to multiple-choice questions-a behavior known as selection bias. This bias reduces the accuracy and reliability of LLM outputs, limiting their usefulness in decision-critical applications. While prior work has focused on adjusting model inputs or outputs to mitigate this issue, our work takes a fundamentally different approach by identifying and removing the internal sources of bias. We introduce two methods: Bias Node Pruning (BNP), which prunes parameters that contribute to selection bias, and Auxiliary Option Injection (AOI), which introduces an additional answer choice to reduce bias in both white-box and black-box settings. To address the shortcomings of existing evaluation metrics, we propose Choice Kullback-Leibler Divergence (CKLD), a new metric that captures distributional imbalances in model predictions. Experiments on three LLMs across multiple datasets demonstrate that our methods consistently improve answer accuracy while reducing selection bias, providing a robust solution for both open- and closed-source models.

Machine learning models trained on imbalanced datasets often exhibit intersectional biases-systematic errors arising from the interaction of multiple attributes such as object class and environmental conditions. This paper presents a data-driven framework for analyzing and mitigating such biases in image classification. We introduce the Intersectional Fairness Evaluation Framework (IFEF), which combines quantitative fairness metrics with interpretability tools to systematically identify bias patterns in model predictions. Building on this analysis, we propose Bias-Weighted Augmentation (BWA), a novel data augmentation strategy that adapts transformation intensities based on subgroup distribution statistics. Experiments on the Open Images V7 dataset with five object classes demonstrate that BWA improves accuracy for underrepresented class-environment intersections by up to 24 percentage points while reducing fairness metric disparities by 35%. Statistical analysis across multiple independent runs confirms the significance of improvements (p < 0.05). Our methodology provides a replicable approach for analyzing and addressing intersectional biases in image classification systems.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

We consider the reinforcement learning (RL) problem with general utilities which consists in maximizing a function of the state-action occupancy measure. Beyond the standard cumulative reward RL setting, this problem includes as particular cases constrained RL, pure exploration and learning from demonstrations among others. For this problem, we propose a simpler single-loop parameter-free normalized policy gradient algorithm. Implementing a recursive momentum variance reduction mechanism, our algorithm achieves mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-3}) and mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-2}) sample complexities for epsilon-first-order stationarity and epsilon-global optimality respectively, under adequate assumptions. We further address the setting of large finite state action spaces via linear function approximation of the occupancy measure and show a mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-4}) sample complexity for a simple policy gradient method with a linear regression subroutine.