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Jun 1

CheeseBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Rodent Behavioral Neuroscience Paradigms

We introduce CheeseBench, a benchmark that evaluates large language models (LLMs) on nine classical behavioral neuroscience paradigms (Morris water maze, Barnes maze, T-maze, radial arm maze, star maze, operant chamber, shuttle box, conditioned place preference, and delayed non-match to sample), spanning six cognitive dimensions. Each task is grounded in peer-reviewed rodent protocols with approximate animal baselines. The agent receives a unified system prompt with no task-specific instructions and must discover goals purely from ASCII text observations and reward signals, much like a rodent placed into an unfamiliar apparatus. We evaluate six open-weight LLMs (3B to 72B parameters) on text-based ASCII renderings and compare against both a random baseline and a graph-based reinforcement learning agent. Our best model (Qwen2.5-VL-7B) reaches 52.6% average success on ASCII input, compared to 32.1% for random agents and 78.9% for approximate rodent baselines. We find that (1) scaling beyond 7B yields diminishing returns, (2) longer context history degrades performance, (3) chain-of-thought prompting hurts rather than helps, and (4) a vision-language architecture provides an advantage at 7B but hurts at 32B. Because the same model's performance ranges from 20% to 57% depending on interface parameters alone, these results characterize the agent-plus-interface system, not the model in isolation. Under this unified zero-shot ASCII protocol, current open-weight LLM agents remain well below approximate rodent reference values, particularly on tasks requiring spatial navigation and within-trial state tracking.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 11

Proactive Model Adaptation Against Concept Drift for Online Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 11, 2024

Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics: Combatting Label Temporal Correlation

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

Diverse Data Augmentation with Diffusions for Effective Test-time Prompt Tuning

Benefiting from prompt tuning, recent years have witnessed the promising performance of pre-trained vision-language models, e.g., CLIP, on versatile downstream tasks. In this paper, we focus on a particular setting of learning adaptive prompts on the fly for each test sample from an unseen new domain, which is known as test-time prompt tuning (TPT). Existing TPT methods typically rely on data augmentation and confidence selection. However, conventional data augmentation techniques, e.g., random resized crops, suffers from the lack of data diversity, while entropy-based confidence selection alone is not sufficient to guarantee prediction fidelity. To address these issues, we propose a novel TPT method, named DiffTPT, which leverages pre-trained diffusion models to generate diverse and informative new data. Specifically, we incorporate augmented data by both conventional method and pre-trained stable diffusion to exploit their respective merits, improving the models ability to adapt to unknown new test data. Moreover, to ensure the prediction fidelity of generated data, we introduce a cosine similarity-based filtration technique to select the generated data with higher similarity to the single test sample. Our experiments on test datasets with distribution shifts and unseen categories demonstrate that DiffTPT improves the zero-shot accuracy by an average of 5.13\% compared to the state-of-the-art TPT method. Our code and models will be publicly released.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 11, 2023

TTSnap: Test-Time Scaling of Diffusion Models via Noise-Aware Pruning

A prominent approach to test-time scaling for text-to-image diffusion models formulates the problem as a search over multiple noise seeds, selecting the one that maximizes a certain image-reward function. The effectiveness of this strategy heavily depends on the number and diversity of noise seeds explored. However, verifying each candidate is computationally expensive, because each must be fully denoised before a reward can be computed. This severely limits the number of samples that can be explored under a fixed budget. We propose test-time scaling with noise-aware pruning (TTSnap), a framework that prunes low-quality candidates without fully denoising them. The key challenge is that reward models are learned in the clean image domain, and the ranking of rewards predicted for intermediate estimates are often inconsistent with those predicted for clean images. To overcome this, we train noise-aware reward models via self-distillation to align the reward for intermediate estimates with that of the final clean images. To stabilize learning across different noise levels, we adopt a curriculum training strategy that progressively shifts the data domain from clean images to noise images. In addition, we introduce a new metric that measures reward alignment and computational budget utilization. Experiments demonstrate that our approach improves performance by over 16\% compared with existing methods, enabling more efficient and effective test-time scaling. It also provides orthogonal gains when combined with post-training techniques and local test-time optimization. Code: https://github.com/TerrysLearning/TTSnap/.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 27, 2025

Rethinking Fine-Tuning when Scaling Test-Time Compute: Limiting Confidence Improves Mathematical Reasoning

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 10, 2025

ProMap: Datasets for Product Mapping in E-commerce

The goal of product mapping is to decide, whether two listings from two different e-shops describe the same products. Existing datasets of matching and non-matching pairs of products, however, often suffer from incomplete product information or contain only very distant non-matching products. Therefore, while predictive models trained on these datasets achieve good results on them, in practice, they are unusable as they cannot distinguish very similar but non-matching pairs of products. This paper introduces two new datasets for product mapping: ProMapCz consisting of 1,495 Czech product pairs and ProMapEn consisting of 1,555 English product pairs of matching and non-matching products manually scraped from two pairs of e-shops. The datasets contain both images and textual descriptions of the products, including their specifications, making them one of the most complete datasets for product mapping. Additionally, the non-matching products were selected in two phases, creating two types of non-matches -- close non-matches and medium non-matches. Even the medium non-matches are pairs of products that are much more similar than non-matches in other datasets -- for example, they still need to have the same brand and similar name and price. After simple data preprocessing, several machine learning algorithms were trained on these and two the other datasets to demonstrate the complexity and completeness of ProMap datasets. ProMap datasets are presented as a golden standard for further research of product mapping filling the gaps in existing ones.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 13, 2023

Protecting Copyrighted Material with Unique Identifiers in Large Language Model Training

A primary concern regarding training large language models (LLMs) is whether they abuse copyrighted online text. With the increasing training data scale and the prevalence of LLMs in daily lives, two problems arise: 1) false positive membership inference results misled by similar examples; 2) membership inference methods are usually too complex for end users to understand and use. To address these issues, we propose an alternative insert-and-detect methodology, advocating that web users and content platforms employ \textit{unique identifiers} for reliable and independent membership inference. Users and platforms can create their identifiers, embed them in copyrighted text, and independently detect them in future LLMs. As an initial demonstration, we introduce \textbf{ghost sentences} and a user-friendly last-k words test, allowing end users to chat with LLMs for membership inference. Ghost sentences consist primarily of unique passphrases of random natural words, which can come with customized elements to bypass possible filter rules. The last-k words test requires a significant repetition time of ghost sentences~(ge10). For cases with fewer repetitions, we designed an extra perplexity test, as LLMs exhibit high perplexity when encountering unnatural passphrases. We also conduct a comprehensive study on the memorization and membership inference of ghost sentences, examining factors such as training data scales, model sizes, repetition times, insertion positions, wordlist of passphrases, alignment, etc. Our study shows the possibility of applying ghost sentences in real scenarios and provides instructions for the potential application.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 23, 2024

Enhancing Sample Utilization through Sample Adaptive Augmentation in Semi-Supervised Learning

In semi-supervised learning, unlabeled samples can be utilized through augmentation and consistency regularization. However, we observed certain samples, even undergoing strong augmentation, are still correctly classified with high confidence, resulting in a loss close to zero. It indicates that these samples have been already learned well and do not provide any additional optimization benefits to the model. We refer to these samples as ``naive samples". Unfortunately, existing SSL models overlook the characteristics of naive samples, and they just apply the same learning strategy to all samples. To further optimize the SSL model, we emphasize the importance of giving attention to naive samples and augmenting them in a more diverse manner. Sample adaptive augmentation (SAA) is proposed for this stated purpose and consists of two modules: 1) sample selection module; 2) sample augmentation module. Specifically, the sample selection module picks out {naive samples} based on historical training information at each epoch, then the naive samples will be augmented in a more diverse manner in the sample augmentation module. Thanks to the extreme ease of implementation of the above modules, SAA is advantageous for being simple and lightweight. We add SAA on top of FixMatch and FlexMatch respectively, and experiments demonstrate SAA can significantly improve the models. For example, SAA helped improve the accuracy of FixMatch from 92.50% to 94.76% and that of FlexMatch from 95.01% to 95.31% on CIFAR-10 with 40 labels.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 7, 2023

Inference Scaling scriptsizeFLaws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Noisy Test-Time Adaptation in Vision-Language Models

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address distribution shifts between source and target data by relying solely on target data during testing. In open-world scenarios, models often encounter noisy samples, i.e., samples outside the in-distribution (ID) label space. Leveraging the zero-shot capability of pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs), this paper introduces Zero-Shot Noisy TTA (ZS-NTTA), focusing on adapting the model to target data with noisy samples during test-time in a zero-shot manner. We find existing TTA methods underperform under ZS-NTTA, often lagging behind even the frozen model. We conduct comprehensive experiments to analyze this phenomenon, revealing that the negative impact of unfiltered noisy data outweighs the benefits of clean data during model updating. Also, adapting a classifier for ID classification and noise detection hampers both sub-tasks. Built on this, we propose a framework that decouples the classifier and detector, focusing on developing an individual detector while keeping the classifier frozen. Technically, we introduce the Adaptive Noise Detector (AdaND), which utilizes the frozen model's outputs as pseudo-labels to train a noise detector. To handle clean data streams, we further inject Gaussian noise during adaptation, preventing the detector from misclassifying clean samples as noisy. Beyond the ZS-NTTA, AdaND can also improve the zero-shot out-of-distribution (ZS-OOD) detection ability of VLMs. Experiments show that AdaND outperforms in both ZS-NTTA and ZS-OOD detection. On ImageNet, AdaND achieves a notable improvement of 8.32% in harmonic mean accuracy (Acc_H) for ZS-NTTA and 9.40% in FPR95 for ZS-OOD detection, compared to SOTA methods. Importantly, AdaND is computationally efficient and comparable to the model-frozen method. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/ZS-NTTA.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 20, 2025

Investigating Data Contamination in Modern Benchmarks for Large Language Models

Recent observations have underscored a disparity between the inflated benchmark scores and the actual performance of LLMs, raising concerns about potential contamination of evaluation benchmarks. This issue is especially critical for closed-source models and certain open-source models where training data transparency is lacking. In this paper we study data contamination by proposing two methods tailored for both open-source and proprietary LLMs. We first introduce a retrieval-based system to explore potential overlaps between evaluation benchmarks and pretraining corpora. We further present a novel investigation protocol named Testset Slot Guessing (TS-Guessing), applicable to both open and proprietary models. This approach entails masking a wrong answer in a multiple-choice question and prompting the model to fill in the gap. Additionally, it involves obscuring an unlikely word in an evaluation example and asking the model to produce it. We find that certain commercial LLMs could surprisingly guess the missing option in various test sets. Specifically, in the TruthfulQA benchmark, we find that LLMs exhibit notable performance improvement when provided with additional metadata in the benchmark. Further, in the MMLU benchmark, ChatGPT and GPT-4 demonstrated an exact match rate of 52\% and 57\%, respectively, in guessing the missing options in benchmark test data. We hope these results underscore the need for more robust evaluation methodologies and benchmarks in the field.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 16, 2023

Accelerating Diffusion LLM Inference via Local Determinism Propagation

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) represent a significant advancement in text generation, offering parallel token decoding capabilities. However, existing open-source implementations suffer from quality-speed trade-offs that impede their practical deployment. Conservative sampling strategies typically decode only the most confident token per step to ensure quality (i.e., greedy decoding), at the cost of inference efficiency due to repeated redundant refinement iterations--a phenomenon we term delayed decoding. Through systematic analysis of dLLM decoding dynamics, we characterize this delayed decoding behavior and propose a training-free adaptive parallel decoding strategy, named LocalLeap, to address these inefficiencies. LocalLeap is built on two fundamental empirical principles: local determinism propagation centered on high-confidence anchors and progressive spatial consistency decay. By applying these principles, LocalLeap identifies anchors and performs localized relaxed parallel decoding within bounded neighborhoods, achieving substantial inference step reduction through early commitment of already-determined tokens without compromising output quality. Comprehensive evaluation on various benchmarks demonstrates that LocalLeap achieves 6.94times throughput improvements and reduces decoding steps to just 14.2\% of the original requirement, achieving these gains with negligible performance impact. The source codes are available at: https://github.com/friedrichor/LocalLeap.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025

Dynamic Delayed Tree Expansion For Improved Multi-Path Speculative Decoding

Multi-path speculative decoding accelerates lossless sampling from a target model by using a cheaper draft model to generate a draft tree of tokens, and then applies a verification algorithm that accepts a subset of these. While prior work has proposed various verification algorithms for i.i.d rollouts, their relative performance under matched settings remains unclear. In this work, we firstly present a systematic evaluation of verification strategies across model families, tasks, and sampling regimes, and find that Traversal Verification dominates consistently, with OT-based methods lagging far behind. Our analysis uncovers that this occurs because OT-based methods achieve high multi-token acceptance near the root of the draft tree, while multi-token gains are most impactful deeper in the draft tree, where draft and target distributions diverge. Based on this insight, we propose delayed tree expansion, which drafts a partial single path, delaying the i.i.d. branching point. We show that delayed tree expansion preserves the target distribution and improves on root-node i.i.d rollouts. Further, we develop a dynamic neural selector that estimates the expected block efficiency of optimal-transport-based verification methods from draft and target features, enabling context-dependent expansion decisions. Our neural selector allows OT-based methods like SpecInfer to outperform Traversal Verification for the first time, achieving 5% higher average throughput across a wide range of models, datasets, and sampling settings.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 18

Prompt Optimization with EASE? Efficient Ordering-aware Automated Selection of Exemplars

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in real-world applications. The capability of in-context learning (ICL) allows us to adapt an LLM to downstream tasks by including input-label exemplars in the prompt without model fine-tuning. However, the quality of these exemplars in the prompt greatly impacts performance, highlighting the need for an effective automated exemplar selection method. Recent studies have explored retrieval-based approaches to select exemplars tailored to individual test queries, which can be undesirable due to extra test-time computation and an increased risk of data exposure. Moreover, existing methods fail to adequately account for the impact of exemplar ordering on the performance. On the other hand, the impact of the instruction, another essential component in the prompt given to the LLM, is often overlooked in existing exemplar selection methods. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method named EASE, which leverages the hidden embedding from a pre-trained language model to represent ordered sets of exemplars and uses a neural bandit algorithm to optimize the sets of exemplars while accounting for exemplar ordering. Our EASE can efficiently find an ordered set of exemplars that performs well for all test queries from a given task, thereby eliminating test-time computation. Importantly, EASE can be readily extended to jointly optimize both the exemplars and the instruction. Through extensive empirical evaluations (including novel tasks), we demonstrate the superiority of EASE over existing methods, and reveal practical insights about the impact of exemplar selection on ICL, which may be of independent interest. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhaoxuanWu/EASE-Prompt-Optimization.

  • 8 authors
·
May 25, 2024

ECtHR-PCR: A Dataset for Precedent Understanding and Prior Case Retrieval in the European Court of Human Rights

In common law jurisdictions, legal practitioners rely on precedents to construct arguments, in line with the doctrine of stare decisis. As the number of cases grow over the years, prior case retrieval (PCR) has garnered significant attention. Besides lacking real-world scale, existing PCR datasets do not simulate a realistic setting, because their queries use complete case documents while only masking references to prior cases. The query is thereby exposed to legal reasoning not yet available when constructing an argument for an undecided case as well as spurious patterns left behind by citation masks, potentially short-circuiting a comprehensive understanding of case facts and legal principles. To address these limitations, we introduce a PCR dataset based on judgements from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which explicitly separate facts from arguments and exhibit precedential practices, aiding us to develop this PCR dataset to foster systems' comprehensive understanding. We benchmark different lexical and dense retrieval approaches with various negative sampling strategies, adapting them to deal with long text sequences using hierarchical variants. We found that difficulty-based negative sampling strategies were not effective for the PCR task, highlighting the need for investigation into domain-specific difficulty criteria. Furthermore, we observe performance of the dense models degrade with time and calls for further research into temporal adaptation of retrieval models. Additionally, we assess the influence of different views , Halsbury's and Goodhart's, in practice in ECtHR jurisdiction using PCR task.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 31, 2024

Efficient Test-Time Model Adaptation without Forgetting

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any testing sample. This task is particularly important for deep models when the test environment changes frequently. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, we still face two practical challenges: 1) existing methods have to perform backward computation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable prediction cost to many applications; 2) while existing TTA solutions can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as catastrophic forgetting). In this paper, we point out that not all the test samples contribute equally to model adaptation, and high-entropy ones may lead to noisy gradients that could disrupt the model. Motivated by this, we propose an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples, on which the model is updated to minimize the entropy loss for test-time adaptation. Furthermore, to alleviate the forgetting issue, we introduce a Fisher regularizer to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes, where the Fisher importance is estimated from test samples with generated pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 6, 2022

Towards Open-Set Test-Time Adaptation Utilizing the Wisdom of Crowds in Entropy Minimization

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 13, 2023

Query Carefully: Detecting the Unanswerables in Text-to-SQL Tasks

Text-to-SQL systems allow non-SQL experts to interact with relational databases using natural language. However, their tendency to generate executable SQL for ambiguous, out-of-scope, or unanswerable queries introduces a hidden risk, as outputs may be misinterpreted as correct. This risk is especially serious in biomedical contexts, where precision is critical. We therefore present Query Carefully, a pipeline that integrates LLM-based SQL generation with explicit detection and handling of unanswerable inputs. Building on the OncoMX component of ScienceBenchmark, we construct OncoMX-NAQ (No-Answer Questions), a set of 80 no-answer questions spanning 8 categories (non-SQL, out-of-schema/domain, and multiple ambiguity types). Our approach employs llama3.3:70b with schema-aware prompts, explicit No-Answer Rules (NAR), and few-shot examples drawn from both answerable and unanswerable questions. We evaluate SQL exact match, result accuracy, and unanswerable-detection accuracy. On the OncoMX dev split, few-shot prompting with answerable examples increases result accuracy, and adding unanswerable examples does not degrade performance. On OncoMX-NAQ, balanced prompting achieves the highest unanswerable-detection accuracy (0.8), with near-perfect results for structurally defined categories (non-SQL, missing columns, out-of-domain) but persistent challenges for missing-value queries (0.5) and column ambiguity (0.3). A lightweight user interface surfaces interim SQL, execution results, and abstentions, supporting transparent and reliable text-to-SQL in biomedical applications.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 19, 2025

Probe and Skip: Self-Predictive Token Skipping for Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference

Long-context inference enhances the reasoning capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), but incurs significant computational overhead. Token-oriented methods, such as pruning and skipping, have shown great promise in reducing inference latency, yet still suffer from inherently insufficient structure optimization, outdated selection criteria, and redundancy interference, resulting in suboptimal speed-accuracy trade-off. To address these issues, we propose a novel training-free framework dubbed Self-Predictive Token Skipping (SPTS), for efficient long-context LLM inference. Specifically, motivated by probing the influence of target layers prior to skipping, we design two selective token skipping strategies for typical structures, including Partial Attention Probing (PAP) for multi-head attention and Low-rank Transformation Probing (LTP) for feed forward network. The former selects informative tokens via partial forward attention computation, while the latter constructs a low-rank proxy network to predict token transformations. In addition, a Multi-Stage Delayed Pruning (MSDP) strategy reallocates skipping budgets and progressively removes redundant tokens across layers. Extensive experiments display the effectiveness of our method, achieving up to 2.46times and 2.29times speedups for prefilling and end-to-end generation, respectively, while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We will release the source code upon acceptance.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 1

Early Timestep Zero-Shot Candidate Selection for Instruction-Guided Image Editing

Despite recent advances in diffusion models, achieving reliable image generation and editing remains challenging due to the inherent diversity induced by stochastic noise in the sampling process. Instruction-guided image editing with diffusion models offers user-friendly capabilities, yet editing failures, such as background distortion, frequently occur. Users often resort to trial and error, adjusting seeds or prompts to achieve satisfactory results, which is inefficient. While seed selection methods exist for Text-to-Image (T2I) generation, they depend on external verifiers, limiting applicability, and evaluating multiple seeds increases computational complexity. To address this, we first establish a multiple-seed-based image editing baseline using background consistency scores, achieving Best-of-N performance without supervision. Building on this, we introduce ELECT (Early-timestep Latent Evaluation for Candidate Selection), a zero-shot framework that selects reliable seeds by estimating background mismatches at early diffusion timesteps, identifying the seed that retains the background while modifying only the foreground. ELECT ranks seed candidates by a background inconsistency score, filtering unsuitable samples early based on background consistency while preserving editability. Beyond standalone seed selection, ELECT integrates into instruction-guided editing pipelines and extends to Multimodal Large-Language Models (MLLMs) for joint seed and prompt selection, further improving results when seed selection alone is insufficient. Experiments show that ELECT reduces computational costs (by 41 percent on average and up to 61 percent) while improving background consistency and instruction adherence, achieving around 40 percent success rates in previously failed cases - without any external supervision or training.

kaist-ai KAIST AI
·
Apr 18, 2025

TS-Haystack: A Multi-Scale Retrieval Benchmark for Time Series Language Models

Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) are emerging as unified models for reasoning over continuous signals in natural language. However, long-context retrieval remains a major limitation: existing models are typically trained and evaluated on short sequences, while real-world time-series sensor streams can span millions of datapoints. This mismatch requires precise temporal localization under strict computational constraints, a regime that is not captured by current benchmarks. We introduce TS-Haystack, a long-context temporal retrieval benchmark comprising ten task types across four categories: direct retrieval, temporal reasoning, multi-step reasoning and contextual anomaly. The benchmark uses controlled needle insertion by embedding short activity bouts into longer longitudinal accelerometer recordings, enabling systematic evaluation across context lengths ranging from seconds to 2 hours per sample. We hypothesize that existing TSLM time series encoders overlook temporal granularity as context length increases, creating a task-dependent effect: compression aids classification but impairs retrieval of localized events. Across multiple model and encoding strategies, we observe a consistent divergence between classification and retrieval behavior. Learned latent compression preserves or improves classification accuracy at compression ratios up to 176times, but retrieval performance degrades with context length, incurring in the loss of temporally localized information. These results highlight the importance of architectural designs that decouple sequence length from computational complexity while preserving temporal fidelity.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 15

Optimizing Dense Retrieval Model Training with Hard Negatives

Ranking has always been one of the top concerns in information retrieval researches. For decades, the lexical matching signal has dominated the ad-hoc retrieval process, but solely using this signal in retrieval may cause the vocabulary mismatch problem. In recent years, with the development of representation learning techniques, many researchers turn to Dense Retrieval (DR) models for better ranking performance. Although several existing DR models have already obtained promising results, their performance improvement heavily relies on the sampling of training examples. Many effective sampling strategies are not efficient enough for practical usage, and for most of them, there still lacks theoretical analysis in how and why performance improvement happens. To shed light on these research questions, we theoretically investigate different training strategies for DR models and try to explain why hard negative sampling performs better than random sampling. Through the analysis, we also find that there are many potential risks in static hard negative sampling, which is employed by many existing training methods. Therefore, we propose two training strategies named a Stable Training Algorithm for dense Retrieval (STAR) and a query-side training Algorithm for Directly Optimizing Ranking pErformance (ADORE), respectively. STAR improves the stability of DR training process by introducing random negatives. ADORE replaces the widely-adopted static hard negative sampling method with a dynamic one to directly optimize the ranking performance. Experimental results on two publicly available retrieval benchmark datasets show that either strategy gains significant improvements over existing competitive baselines and a combination of them leads to the best performance.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 16, 2021

Spinning the Golden Thread: Benchmarking Long-Form Generation in Language Models

The abilities of long-context language models (LMs) are often evaluated using the "Needle-in-a-Haystack" (NIAH) test, which comprises tasks designed to assess a model's ability to identify specific information ("needle") within large text sequences ("haystack"). While these benchmarks measure how well models understand long-context input sequences, they do not effectively gauge the quality of long-form text generation--a critical aspect for applications such as design proposals and creative writing. To address this gap, we have introduced a new long-form text evaluation benchmark, Spinning the Golden Thread (SGT), which tests models' ability to identify specific events within generated long text sequences. In this benchmark, we prompt long-context LMs to create long-form text that must include particular events or constraints and evaluate their ability to incorporate these elements. We evaluated ten long-context LMs across four distinct scenarios, three types of prompt instructions, and two different generation-length settings (16K and 32K). Although these models perform well on NIAH benchmarks, none demonstrated satisfactory performance on the Spinning the Golden Thread, raising concerns about their ability to generate coherent long-form text that follows instructions. Additionally, as the length of the generated text increases, all models exhibit a significant drop in performance.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 3, 2024 3

FineCIR: Explicit Parsing of Fine-Grained Modification Semantics for Composed Image Retrieval

Composed Image Retrieval (CIR) facilitates image retrieval through a multimodal query consisting of a reference image and modification text. The reference image defines the retrieval context, while the modification text specifies desired alterations. However, existing CIR datasets predominantly employ coarse-grained modification text (CoarseMT), which inadequately captures fine-grained retrieval intents. This limitation introduces two key challenges: (1) ignoring detailed differences leads to imprecise positive samples, and (2) greater ambiguity arises when retrieving visually similar images. These issues degrade retrieval accuracy, necessitating manual result filtering or repeated queries. To address these limitations, we develop a robust fine-grained CIR data annotation pipeline that minimizes imprecise positive samples and enhances CIR systems' ability to discern modification intents accurately. Using this pipeline, we refine the FashionIQ and CIRR datasets to create two fine-grained CIR datasets: Fine-FashionIQ and Fine-CIRR. Furthermore, we introduce FineCIR, the first CIR framework explicitly designed to parse the modification text. FineCIR effectively captures fine-grained modification semantics and aligns them with ambiguous visual entities, enhancing retrieval precision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FineCIR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CIR baselines on both fine-grained and traditional CIR benchmark datasets. Our FineCIR code and fine-grained CIR datasets are available at https://github.com/SDU-L/FineCIR.git.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 27, 2025

First Finish Search: Efficient Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models

Test-time scaling (TTS), which involves dynamic allocation of compute during inference, offers a promising way to improve reasoning in large language models. While existing TTS methods work well, they often rely on long decoding paths or require a large number of samples to be generated, increasing the token usage and inference latency. We observe the surprising fact that for reasoning tasks, shorter traces are much more likely to be correct than longer ones. Motivated by this, we introduce First Finish Search (FFS), a training-free parallel decoding strategy that launches n independent samples and returns as soon as any one completes. We evaluate FFS alongside simple decoding, beam search, majority voting, and budget forcing on four reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, QwQ-32B and Phi-4-Reasoning-Plus) and across four datasets (AIME24, AIME25-I, AIME25-II and GPQA Diamond). With DeepSeek-R1, FFS achieves 82.23% accuracy on the AIME datasets, a 15% improvement over DeepSeek-R1's standalone accuracy, nearly matching OpenAI's o4-mini performance. Our theoretical analysis explains why stopping at the shortest trace is likely to yield a correct answer and identifies the conditions under which early stopping may be suboptimal. The elegance and simplicity of FFS demonstrate that straightforward TTS strategies can perform remarkably well, revealing the untapped potential of simple approaches at inference time.

  • 3 authors
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May 23, 2025 2

Entropy is not Enough for Test-Time Adaptation: From the Perspective of Disentangled Factors

Test-time adaptation (TTA) fine-tunes pre-trained deep neural networks for unseen test data. The primary challenge of TTA is limited access to the entire test dataset during online updates, causing error accumulation. To mitigate it, TTA methods have utilized the model output's entropy as a confidence metric that aims to determine which samples have a lower likelihood of causing error. Through experimental studies, however, we observed the unreliability of entropy as a confidence metric for TTA under biased scenarios and theoretically revealed that it stems from the neglect of the influence of latent disentangled factors of data on predictions. Building upon these findings, we introduce a novel TTA method named Destroy Your Object (DeYO), which leverages a newly proposed confidence metric named Pseudo-Label Probability Difference (PLPD). PLPD quantifies the influence of the shape of an object on prediction by measuring the difference between predictions before and after applying an object-destructive transformation. DeYO consists of sample selection and sample weighting, which employ entropy and PLPD concurrently. For robust adaptation, DeYO prioritizes samples that dominantly incorporate shape information when making predictions. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of DeYO over baseline methods across various scenarios, including biased and wild. Project page is publicly available at https://whitesnowdrop.github.io/DeYO/.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 12, 2024

Video-T1: Test-Time Scaling for Video Generation

With the scale capability of increasing training data, model size, and computational cost, video generation has achieved impressive results in digital creation, enabling users to express creativity across various domains. Recently, researchers in Large Language Models (LLMs) have expanded the scaling to test-time, which can significantly improve LLM performance by using more inference-time computation. Instead of scaling up video foundation models through expensive training costs, we explore the power of Test-Time Scaling (TTS) in video generation, aiming to answer the question: if a video generation model is allowed to use non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve generation quality given a challenging text prompt. In this work, we reinterpret the test-time scaling of video generation as a searching problem to sample better trajectories from Gaussian noise space to the target video distribution. Specifically, we build the search space with test-time verifiers to provide feedback and heuristic algorithms to guide searching process. Given a text prompt, we first explore an intuitive linear search strategy by increasing noise candidates at inference time. As full-step denoising all frames simultaneously requires heavy test-time computation costs, we further design a more efficient TTS method for video generation called Tree-of-Frames (ToF) that adaptively expands and prunes video branches in an autoregressive manner. Extensive experiments on text-conditioned video generation benchmarks demonstrate that increasing test-time compute consistently leads to significant improvements in the quality of videos. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Video-T1

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 24, 2025 1

Cautious Next Token Prediction

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 3, 2025

Treasure Hunt: Real-time Targeting of the Long Tail using Training-Time Markers

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

  • 5 authors
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Jun 17, 2025 4

The Surprising Effectiveness of Skip-Tuning in Diffusion Sampling

With the incorporation of the UNet architecture, diffusion probabilistic models have become a dominant force in image generation tasks. One key design in UNet is the skip connections between the encoder and decoder blocks. Although skip connections have been shown to improve training stability and model performance, we reveal that such shortcuts can be a limiting factor for the complexity of the transformation. As the sampling steps decrease, the generation process and the role of the UNet get closer to the push-forward transformations from Gaussian distribution to the target, posing a challenge for the network's complexity. To address this challenge, we propose Skip-Tuning, a simple yet surprisingly effective training-free tuning method on the skip connections. Our method can achieve 100% FID improvement for pretrained EDM on ImageNet 64 with only 19 NFEs (1.75), breaking the limit of ODE samplers regardless of sampling steps. Surprisingly, the improvement persists when we increase the number of sampling steps and can even surpass the best result from EDM-2 (1.58) with only 39 NFEs (1.57). Comprehensive exploratory experiments are conducted to shed light on the surprising effectiveness. We observe that while Skip-Tuning increases the score-matching losses in the pixel space, the losses in the feature space are reduced, particularly at intermediate noise levels, which coincide with the most effective range accounting for image quality improvement.

  • 8 authors
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Feb 23, 2024

Pretrain-then-Adapt: Uncertainty-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for Text-based Person Search

Text-based person search faces inherent limitations due to data scarcity, driven by stringent privacy constraints and the high cost of manual annotation. To mitigate this, existing methods usually rely on a Pretrain-then-Finetune paradigm, where models are first pretrained on synthetic person-caption data to establish cross-modal alignment, followed by fine-tuning on labeled real-world datasets. However, this paradigm lacks practicality in real-world deployment scenarios, where large-scale annotated target-domain data is typically inaccessible. In this work, we propose a new Pretrain-then-Adapt paradigm that eliminates reliance on extensive target-domain supervision through an offline test-time adaptation manner, enabling dynamic model adaptation using only unlabeled test data with minimal post-train time cost. To mitigate overconfidence with false positives of previous entropy-based test-time adaptation, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware Test-Time Adaptation (UATTA) framework, which introduces a bidirectional retrieval disagreement mechanism to estimate uncertainty, i.e., low uncertainty is assigned when an image-text pair ranks highly in both image-to-text and text-to-image retrieval, indicating high alignment; otherwise, high uncertainty is detected. This indicator drives offline test-time model recalibration without labels, effectively mitigating domain shift. We validate UATTA on four benchmarks, i.e., CUHK-PEDES, ICFG-PEDES, RSTPReid, and PAB, showing consistent improvements across both CLIP-based (one-stage) and XVLM-based (two-stage) frameworks. Ablation studies confirm that UATTA outperforms existing offline test-time adaptation strategies, establishing a new benchmark for label-efficient, deployable person search systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/nkuzjh/UATTA.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 26

NoMIRACL: Knowing When You Don't Know for Robust Multilingual Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounds large language model (LLM) output by leveraging external knowledge sources to reduce factual hallucinations. However, prior works lack a comprehensive evaluation of different language families, making it challenging to evaluate LLM robustness against errors in external retrieved knowledge. To overcome this, we establish NoMIRACL, a human-annotated dataset for evaluating LLM robustness in RAG across 18 typologically diverse languages. NoMIRACL includes both a non-relevant and a relevant subset. Queries in the non-relevant subset contain passages manually judged as non-relevant or noisy, whereas queries in the relevant subset include at least a single judged relevant passage. We measure LLM robustness using two metrics: (i) hallucination rate, measuring model tendency to hallucinate an answer, when the answer is not present in passages in the non-relevant subset, and (ii) error rate, measuring model inaccuracy to recognize relevant passages in the relevant subset. We build a GPT-4 baseline which achieves a 33.2% hallucination rate on the non-relevant and a 14.9% error rate on the relevant subset on average. Our evaluation reveals that GPT-4 hallucinates frequently in high-resource languages, such as French or English. This work highlights an important avenue for future research to improve LLM robustness to learn how to better reject non-relevant information in RAG.

  • 11 authors
·
Dec 18, 2023

Beyond the Needle's Illusion: Decoupled Evaluation of Evidence Access and Use under Semantic Interference at 326M-Token Scale

Long-context LLM agents must access the right evidence from large environments and use it faithfully. However, the popular Needle-in-a-Haystack (NIAH) evaluation mostly measures benign span localization. The needle is near-unique, and the haystack is largely irrelevant. We introduce EverMemBench-S (EMB-S), an adversarial NIAH-style benchmark built on a 326M-token MemoryBank. While the full MemoryBank spans 326M tokens for retrieval-based (RAG) evaluation, we evaluate native long-context models only at scales that fit within each model's context window (up to 1M tokens in this work) to ensure a fair comparison. EMB-S pairs queries with collision-tested near-miss hard negatives and gold evidence sets spanning one or more documents, validated via human screening and LLM verification. We also propose a decoupled diagnostic protocol that reports evidence access (document-ID localization) separately from end-to-end QA quality under full-context prompting. This enables consistent diagnosis for both native long-context prompting and retrieval pipelines. Across a reference-corpus ladder from domain-isolated 64K contexts to a globally shared 326M-token environment, we observe a clear reality gap. Systems that saturate benign NIAH degrade sharply in evidence access under semantic interference. These results indicate that semantic discrimination, not context length alone, is the dominant bottleneck for long-context memory at scale.

  • 9 authors
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Jan 28

LLM Dataset Inference: Did you train on my dataset?

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) in the real world has come with a rise in copyright cases against companies for training their models on unlicensed data from the internet. Recent works have presented methods to identify if individual text sequences were members of the model's training data, known as membership inference attacks (MIAs). We demonstrate that the apparent success of these MIAs is confounded by selecting non-members (text sequences not used for training) belonging to a different distribution from the members (e.g., temporally shifted recent Wikipedia articles compared with ones used to train the model). This distribution shift makes membership inference appear successful. However, most MIA methods perform no better than random guessing when discriminating between members and non-members from the same distribution (e.g., in this case, the same period of time). Even when MIAs work, we find that different MIAs succeed at inferring membership of samples from different distributions. Instead, we propose a new dataset inference method to accurately identify the datasets used to train large language models. This paradigm sits realistically in the modern-day copyright landscape, where authors claim that an LLM is trained over multiple documents (such as a book) written by them, rather than one particular paragraph. While dataset inference shares many of the challenges of membership inference, we solve it by selectively combining the MIAs that provide positive signal for a given distribution, and aggregating them to perform a statistical test on a given dataset. Our approach successfully distinguishes the train and test sets of different subsets of the Pile with statistically significant p-values < 0.1, without any false positives.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 9, 2024

Test-Time Strategies for More Efficient and Accurate Agentic RAG

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems face challenges with complex, multihop questions, and agentic frameworks such as Search-R1 (Jin et al., 2025), which operates iteratively, have been proposed to address these complexities. However, such approaches can introduce inefficiencies, including repetitive retrieval of previously processed information and challenges in contextualizing retrieved results effectively within the current generation prompt. Such issues can lead to unnecessary retrieval turns, suboptimal reasoning, inaccurate answers, and increased token consumption. In this paper, we investigate test-time modifications to the Search-R1 pipeline to mitigate these identified shortcomings. Specifically, we explore the integration of two components and their combination: a contextualization module to better integrate relevant information from retrieved documents into reasoning, and a de-duplication module that replaces previously retrieved documents with the next most relevant ones. We evaluate our approaches using the HotpotQA (Yang et al., 2018) and the Natural Questions (Kwiatkowski et al., 2019) datasets, reporting the exact match (EM) score, an LLM-as-a-Judge assessment of answer correctness, and the average number of turns. Our best-performing variant, utilizing GPT-4.1-mini for contextualization, achieves a 5.6% increase in EM score and reduces the number of turns by 10.5% compared to the Search-R1 baseline, demonstrating improved answer accuracy and retrieval efficiency.

  • 10 authors
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Mar 12 2

When Iterative RAG Beats Ideal Evidence: A Diagnostic Study in Scientific Multi-hop Question Answering

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) extends large language models (LLMs) beyond parametric knowledge, yet it is unclear when iterative retrieval-reasoning loops meaningfully outperform static RAG, particularly in scientific domains with multi-hop reasoning, sparse domain knowledge, and heterogeneous evidence. We provide the first controlled, mechanism-level diagnostic study of whether synchronized iterative retrieval and reasoning can surpass an idealized static upper bound (Gold Context) RAG. We benchmark eleven state-of-the-art LLMs under three regimes: (i) No Context, measuring reliance on parametric memory; (ii) Gold Context, where all oracle evidence is supplied at once; and (iii) Iterative RAG, a training-free controller that alternates retrieval, hypothesis refinement, and evidence-aware stopping. Using the chemistry-focused ChemKGMultiHopQA dataset, we isolate questions requiring genuine retrieval and analyze behavior with diagnostics spanning retrieval coverage gaps, anchor-carry drop, query quality, composition fidelity, and control calibration. Across models, Iterative RAG consistently outperforms Gold Context, with gains up to 25.6 percentage points, especially for non-reasoning fine-tuned models. Staged retrieval reduces late-hop failures, mitigates context overload, and enables dynamic correction of early hypothesis drift, but remaining failure modes include incomplete hop coverage, distractor latch trajectories, early stopping miscalibration, and high composition failure rates even with perfect retrieval. Overall, staged retrieval is often more influential than the mere presence of ideal evidence; we provide practical guidance for deploying and diagnosing RAG systems in specialized scientific settings and a foundation for more reliable, controllable iterative retrieval-reasoning frameworks.

  • 5 authors
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Jan 27

Look Before you Leap: Estimating LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

  • 4 authors
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Sep 24, 2025

Evidence Sufficiency Under Delayed Ground Truth: Proxy Monitoring for Risk Decision Systems

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 16