Daily Papers

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have garnered widespread attention for their exceptional capabilities. Prompts are central to the functionality and performance of LLMs, making them highly valuable assets. The increasing reliance on high-quality prompts has driven significant growth in prompt services. However, this growth also expands the potential for prompt leakage, increasing the risk that attackers could replicate original functionalities, create competing products, and severely infringe on developers' intellectual property. Despite these risks, prompt leakage in real-world prompt services remains underexplored. In this paper, we present PRSA, a practical attack framework designed for prompt stealing. PRSA infers the detailed intent of prompts through very limited input-output analysis and can successfully generate stolen prompts that replicate the original functionality. Extensive evaluations demonstrate PRSA's effectiveness across two main types of real-world prompt services. Specifically, compared to previous works, it improves the attack success rate from 17.8% to 46.1% in prompt marketplaces and from 39% to 52% in LLM application stores, respectively. Notably, in the attack on "Math", one of the most popular educational applications in OpenAI's GPT Store with over 1 million conversations, PRSA uncovered a hidden Easter egg that had not been revealed previously. Besides, our analysis reveals that higher mutual information between a prompt and its output correlates with an increased risk of leakage. This insight guides the design and evaluation of two potential defenses against the security threats posed by PRSA. We have reported these findings to the prompt service vendors, including PromptBase and OpenAI, and actively collaborate with them to implement defensive measures.

Graphs are widely used for modeling relational data in real-world scenarios, such as social networks and urban computing. Existing LLM-based graph analysis approaches either integrate graph neural networks (GNNs) for specific machine learning tasks, limiting their transferability, or rely solely on LLMs' internal reasoning ability, resulting in suboptimal performance. To address these limitations, we take advantage of recent advances in LLM-based agents, which have shown capabilities of utilizing external knowledge or tools for problem solving. By simulating human problem-solving strategies such as analogy and collaboration, we propose a multi-agent system based on LLMs named GraphTeam, for graph analysis. GraphTeam consists of five LLM-based agents from three modules, and the agents with different specialities can collaborate with each other to address complex problems. Specifically, (1) input-output normalization module: the question agent extracts and refines four key arguments from the original question, facilitating the problem understanding, and the answer agent organizes the results to meet the output requirement; (2) external knowledge retrieval module: we first build a knowledge base consisting of relevant documentation and experience information, and then the search agent retrieves the most relevant entries for each question. (3) problem-solving module: given the retrieved information from search agent, the coding agent uses established algorithms via programming to generate solutions, and in case the coding agent does not work, the reasoning agent will directly compute the results without programming. Extensive experiments on six graph analysis benchmarks demonstrate that GraphTeam achieves state-of-the-art performance with an average 25.85% improvement over the best baseline in terms of accuracy. The code and data are available at https://github.com/BUPT-GAMMA/GraphTeam.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have garnered increasing attention in the field of natural language processing, revolutionizing numerous downstream tasks with powerful reasoning and generation abilities. For example, In-Context Learning (ICL) introduces a fine-tuning-free paradigm, allowing out-of-the-box LLMs to execute downstream tasks by analogy learning without any fine-tuning. Besides, in a fine-tuning-dependent paradigm where substantial training data exists, Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT), as the cost-effective methods, enable LLMs to achieve excellent performance comparable to full fine-tuning. However, these fascinating techniques employed by LLMs have not been fully exploited in the ABSA field. Previous works probe LLMs in ABSA by merely using randomly selected input-output pairs as demonstrations in ICL, resulting in an incomplete and superficial evaluation. In this paper, we shed light on a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs in the ABSA field, involving 13 datasets, 8 ABSA subtasks, and 6 LLMs. Specifically, we design a unified task formulation to unify ``multiple LLMs for multiple ABSA subtasks in multiple paradigms.'' For the fine-tuning-dependent paradigm, we efficiently fine-tune LLMs using instruction-based multi-task learning. For the fine-tuning-free paradigm, we propose 3 demonstration selection strategies to stimulate the few-shot abilities of LLMs. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that LLMs achieve a new state-of-the-art performance compared to fine-tuned Small Language Models (SLMs) in the fine-tuning-dependent paradigm. More importantly, in the fine-tuning-free paradigm where SLMs are ineffective, LLMs with ICL still showcase impressive potential and even compete with fine-tuned SLMs on some ABSA subtasks.

Fault attacks are active, physical attacks that an adversary can leverage to alter the control-flow of embedded devices to gain access to sensitive information or bypass protection mechanisms. Due to the severity of these attacks, manufacturers deploy hardware-based fault defenses into security-critical systems, such as secure elements. The development of these countermeasures is a challenging task due to the complex interplay of circuit components and because contemporary design automation tools tend to optimize inserted structures away, thereby defeating their purpose. Hence, it is critical that such countermeasures are rigorously verified post-synthesis. As classical functional verification techniques fall short of assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, developers have to resort to methods capable of injecting faults in a simulation testbench or into a physical chip. However, developing test sequences to inject faults in simulation is an error-prone task and performing fault attacks on a chip requires specialized equipment and is incredibly time-consuming. To that end, this paper introduces SYNFI, a formal pre-silicon fault verification framework that operates on synthesized netlists. SYNFI can be used to analyze the general effect of faults on the input-output relationship in a circuit and its fault countermeasures, and thus enables hardware designers to assess and verify the effectiveness of embedded countermeasures in a systematic and semi-automatic way. To demonstrate that SYNFI is capable of handling unmodified, industry-grade netlists synthesized with commercial and open tools, we analyze OpenTitan, the first open-source secure element. In our analysis, we identified critical security weaknesses in the unprotected AES block, developed targeted countermeasures, reassessed their security, and contributed these countermeasures back to the OpenTitan repository.

Code Executing Reasoning is becoming a new non-functional metric that assesses the ability of large language models (LLMs) in programming tasks. State-of-the-art frameworks (CodeMind or REval) and benchmarks (CruxEval) usually focus on LLM's prediction of a given code's input/output or intermediate variable states/values on limited programs. However, there is no tool for more in-depth analysis of the results. Without such a tool, the observations about LLM's code execution reasoning cannot be generalized to more datasets, preventing the research community and practitioners from devising the next generation of LLMs with better code execution reasoning abilities. This paper introduces ExeRScope, a series of tools and heuristics to analyze the result of code execution reasoning frameworks to understand better the impact of code properties in the studied benchmarks on the code execution reasoning. With such tooling, analysis can be generalized to code with similar properties without the urgent need to design more benchmarks, which is a cumbersome effort.

Sentiment analysis is a crucial task that aims to understand people's emotional states and predict emotional categories based on multimodal information. It consists of several subtasks, such as emotion recognition in conversation (ERC), aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA), and multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA). However, unifying all subtasks in sentiment analysis presents numerous challenges, including modality alignment, unified input/output forms, and dataset bias. To address these challenges, we propose a Task-Specific Prompt method to jointly model subtasks and introduce a multimodal generative framework called UniSA. Additionally, we organize the benchmark datasets of main subtasks into a new Sentiment Analysis Evaluation benchmark, SAEval. We design novel pre-training tasks and training methods to enable the model to learn generic sentiment knowledge among subtasks to improve the model's multimodal sentiment perception ability. Our experimental results show that UniSA performs comparably to the state-of-the-art on all subtasks and generalizes well to various subtasks in sentiment analysis.

Migrating existing C programs into Rust is increasingly desired, as Rust offers superior memory safety while maintaining C's high performance. However, vastly different features between C and Rust--e.g., distinct definitions and usages of pointers and references--pose significant challenges beyond mere syntactic translation. Existing automated translation tools, such as C2Rust, may rely too much on syntactic, template-based translation and generate unsafe Rust code that is hard for human developers to read, maintain, or even compile. More semantic-aware translation that produces safer, idiomatic, and runnable Rust code is much needed. This paper introduces a novel dependency-guided and large language model (LLM)-based C-to-Rust translation approach, RustMap, based on three key ideas: (1) Utilize LLM capabilities to produce idiomatic Rust code from given small pieces of C code, (2) Mitigate LLM limitations in handling large codebases by breaking project-scale C programs into smaller units for translation according to their usage dependencies and composing them into a runnable Rust program, and (3) Enhance the correctness of the translated Rust program by using test cases to check input/output equivalence, isolate faulty code when execution states deviate, and iteratively refine the translation using feedback from compilation and test errors. We empirically evaluate RustMap on 126 real-world programs, including 125 from Rosetta Code and a 7000+ line bzip2 implementation using GPT-4o as the LLM. RustMap shows promising results, guiding GPT-4o to produce idiomatic, readable, and functional Rust code with significantly less unsafe code than other tools, and revealing non-trivial translation patterns reusable for future research.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Recent vision-language-action models (VLAs) build upon pretrained vision-language models and leverage diverse robot datasets to demonstrate strong task execution, language following ability, and semantic generalization. Despite these successes, VLAs struggle with novel robot setups and require fine-tuning to achieve good performance, yet how to most effectively fine-tune them is unclear given many possible strategies. In this work, we study key VLA adaptation design choices such as different action decoding schemes, action representations, and learning objectives for fine-tuning, using OpenVLA as our representative base model. Our empirical analysis informs an Optimized Fine-Tuning (OFT) recipe that integrates parallel decoding, action chunking, a continuous action representation, and a simple L1 regression-based learning objective to altogether improve inference efficiency, policy performance, and flexibility in the model's input-output specifications. We propose OpenVLA-OFT, an instantiation of this recipe, which sets a new state of the art on the LIBERO simulation benchmark, significantly boosting OpenVLA's average success rate across four task suites from 76.5% to 97.1% while increasing action generation throughput by 26times. In real-world evaluations, our fine-tuning recipe enables OpenVLA to successfully execute dexterous, high-frequency control tasks on a bimanual ALOHA robot and outperform other VLAs (pi_0 and RDT-1B) fine-tuned using their default recipes, as well as strong imitation learning policies trained from scratch (Diffusion Policy and ACT) by up to 15% (absolute) in average success rate. We release code for OFT and pretrained model checkpoints at https://openvla-oft.github.io/.

Deep models have achieved impressive progress in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). A burgeoning paradigm is learning neural operators to approximate the input-output mappings of PDEs. While previous deep models have explored the multiscale architectures and various operator designs, they are limited to learning the operators as a whole in the coordinate space. In real physical science problems, PDEs are complex coupled equations with numerical solvers relying on discretization into high-dimensional coordinate space, which cannot be precisely approximated by a single operator nor efficiently learned due to the curse of dimensionality. We present Latent Spectral Models (LSM) toward an efficient and precise solver for high-dimensional PDEs. Going beyond the coordinate space, LSM enables an attention-based hierarchical projection network to reduce the high-dimensional data into a compact latent space in linear time. Inspired by classical spectral methods in numerical analysis, we design a neural spectral block to solve PDEs in the latent space that approximates complex input-output mappings via learning multiple basis operators, enjoying nice theoretical guarantees for convergence and approximation. Experimentally, LSM achieves consistent state-of-the-art and yields a relative gain of 11.5% averaged on seven benchmarks covering both solid and fluid physics. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Latent-Spectral-Models.

In this paper we describe a new mobile architecture, MobileNetV2, that improves the state of the art performance of mobile models on multiple tasks and benchmarks as well as across a spectrum of different model sizes. We also describe efficient ways of applying these mobile models to object detection in a novel framework we call SSDLite. Additionally, we demonstrate how to build mobile semantic segmentation models through a reduced form of DeepLabv3 which we call Mobile DeepLabv3. The MobileNetV2 architecture is based on an inverted residual structure where the input and output of the residual block are thin bottleneck layers opposite to traditional residual models which use expanded representations in the input an MobileNetV2 uses lightweight depthwise convolutions to filter features in the intermediate expansion layer. Additionally, we find that it is important to remove non-linearities in the narrow layers in order to maintain representational power. We demonstrate that this improves performance and provide an intuition that led to this design. Finally, our approach allows decoupling of the input/output domains from the expressiveness of the transformation, which provides a convenient framework for further analysis. We measure our performance on Imagenet classification, COCO object detection, VOC image segmentation. We evaluate the trade-offs between accuracy, and number of operations measured by multiply-adds (MAdd), as well as the number of parameters

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can be represented as graphs whose links and vertices iteratively process data and solve tasks sub-optimally. Complex Network Theory (CNT), merging statistical physics with graph theory, provides a method for interpreting neural networks by analysing their weights and neuron structures. However, classic works adapt CNT metrics that only permit a topological analysis as they do not account for the effect of the input data. In addition, CNT metrics have been applied to a limited range of architectures, mainly including Fully Connected neural networks. In this work, we extend the existing CNT metrics with measures that sample from the DNNs' training distribution, shifting from a purely topological analysis to one that connects with the interpretability of deep learning. For the novel metrics, in addition to the existing ones, we provide a mathematical formalisation for Fully Connected, AutoEncoder, Convolutional and Recurrent neural networks, of which we vary the activation functions and the number of hidden layers. We show that these metrics differentiate DNNs based on the architecture, the number of hidden layers, and the activation function. Our contribution provides a method rooted in physics for interpreting DNNs that offers insights beyond the traditional input-output relationship and the CNT topological analysis.

Information Extraction (IE) stands as a cornerstone in natural language processing, traditionally segmented into distinct sub-tasks. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) heralds a paradigm shift, suggesting the feasibility of a singular model addressing multiple IE subtasks. In this vein, we introduce the General Information Extraction Large Language Model (GIELLM), which integrates text Classification, Sentiment Analysis, Named Entity Recognition, Relation Extraction, and Event Extraction using a uniform input-output schema. This innovation marks the first instance of a model simultaneously handling such a diverse array of IE subtasks. Notably, the GIELLM leverages the Mutual Reinforcement Effect (MRE), enhancing performance in integrated tasks compared to their isolated counterparts. Our experiments demonstrate State-of-the-Art (SOTA) results in five out of six Japanese mixed datasets, significantly surpassing GPT-3.5-Turbo. Further, an independent evaluation using the novel Text Classification Relation and Event Extraction(TCREE) dataset corroborates the synergistic advantages of MRE in text and word classification. This breakthrough paves the way for most IE subtasks to be subsumed under a singular LLM framework. Specialized fine-tune task-specific models are no longer needed.

As deep neural networks include a high number of parameters and operations, it can be a challenge to implement these models on devices with limited computational resources. Despite the development of novel pruning methods toward resource-efficient models, it has become evident that these models are not capable of handling "imbalanced" and "limited number of data points". We proposed a novel filter pruning method by considering the input and output of filters along with the values of the filters that deal with imbalanced datasets better than others. Our pruning method considers the fact that all information about the importance of a filter may not be reflected in the value of the filter. Instead, it is reflected in the changes made to the data after the filter is applied to it. In this work, three methods are compared with the same training conditions except for the ranking values of each method, and 14 methods are compared from other papers. We demonstrated that our model performed significantly better than other methods for imbalanced medical datasets. For example, when we removed up to 58% of FLOPs for the IDRID dataset and up to 45% for the ISIC dataset, our model was able to yield an equivalent (or even superior) result to the baseline model. To evaluate FLOP and parameter reduction using our model in real-world settings, we built a smartphone app, where we demonstrated a reduction of up to 79% in memory usage and 72% in prediction time. All codes and parameters for training different models are available at https://github.com/mohofar/Beta-Rank

We propose DeepASA, a one-for-all model for auditory scene analysis that performs multi-input multi-output (MIMO) source separation, dereverberation, sound event detection (SED), audio classification, and direction-of-arrival estimation (DoAE) within a unified framework. DeepASA is designed for complex auditory scenes where multiple, often similar, sound sources overlap in time and move dynamically in space. To achieve robust and consistent inference across tasks, we introduce an object-oriented processing (OOP) strategy. This approach encapsulates diverse auditory features into object-centric representations and refines them through a chain-of-inference (CoI) mechanism. The pipeline comprises a dynamic temporal kernel-based feature extractor, a transformer-based aggregator, and an object separator that yields per-object features. These features feed into multiple task-specific decoders. Our object-centric representations naturally resolve the parameter association ambiguity inherent in traditional track-wise processing. However, early-stage object separation can lead to failure in downstream ASA tasks. To address this, we implement temporal coherence matching (TCM) within the chain-of-inference, enabling multi-task fusion and iterative refinement of object features using estimated auditory parameters. We evaluate DeepASA on representative spatial audio benchmark datasets, including ASA2, MC-FUSS, and STARSS23. Experimental results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance across all evaluated tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness in both source separation and auditory parameter estimation under diverse spatial auditory scenes.

In this paper we present a Java-to-Python (J2P) and Python-to-Java (P2J) back-to-back code translation method, and associated tool called CoTran, based on large language models (LLMs). Our method leverages the attention mechanism of LLMs, compilation, and symbolic execution-based test generation for equivalence testing between the input and output programs. More precisely, we modify the typical LLM training loop to incorporate compiler and symbolic execution loss. Via extensive experiments comparing CoTran with 10 other transpilers and LLM-based translation tools over a benchmark of more than 57,000 Java-Python equivalent pairs, we show that CoTran outperforms them on relevant metrics such as compilation and runtime equivalence accuracy. For example, our tool gets 97.43% compilation accuracy and 49.66% runtime equivalence accuracy for J2P translation, whereas the nearest competing tool only gets 96.44% and 6.8% respectively.

Recent Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents replicate the R1-Zero paradigm, coupling online Reinforcement Learning (RL) with explicit chain-of-thought reasoning prior to object grounding and thereby achieving substantial performance gains. In this paper, we first conduct extensive analysis experiments of three key components of that training pipeline: input design, output evaluation, and policy update-each revealing distinct challenges arising from blindly applying general-purpose RL without adapting to GUI grounding tasks. Input design: Current templates encourage the model to generate chain-of-thought reasoning, but longer chains unexpectedly lead to worse grounding performance. Output evaluation: Reward functions based on hit signals or box area allow models to exploit box size, leading to reward hacking and poor localization quality. Policy update: Online RL tends to overfit easy examples due to biases in length and sample difficulty, leading to under-optimization on harder cases. To address these issues, we propose three targeted solutions. First, we adopt a Fast Thinking Template that encourages direct answer generation, reducing excessive reasoning during training. Second, we incorporate a box size constraint into the reward function to mitigate reward hacking. Third, we revise the RL objective by adjusting length normalization and adding a difficulty-aware scaling factor, enabling better optimization on hard samples. Our GUI-G1-3B, trained on 17K public samples with Qwen2.5-VL-3B-Instruct, achieves 90.3% accuracy on ScreenSpot and 37.1% on ScreenSpot-Pro. This surpasses all prior models of similar size and even outperforms the larger UI-TARS-7B, establishing a new state-of-the-art in GUI agent grounding. The project repository is available at https://github.com/Yuqi-Zhou/GUI-G1.

Deep learning techniques have dominated the literature on aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA), yielding state-of-the-art results. However, these deep models generally suffer from spurious correlation problems between input features and output labels, which creates significant barriers to robustness and generalization capability. In this paper, we propose a novel Contrastive Variational Information Bottleneck framework (called CVIB) to reduce spurious correlations for ABSA. The proposed CVIB framework is composed of an original network and a self-pruned network, and these two networks are optimized simultaneously via contrastive learning. Concretely, we employ the Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) principle to learn an informative and compressed network (self-pruned network) from the original network, which discards the superfluous patterns or spurious correlations between input features and prediction labels. Then, self-pruning contrastive learning is devised to pull together semantically similar positive pairs and push away dissimilar pairs, where the representations of the anchor learned by the original and self-pruned networks respectively are regarded as a positive pair while the representations of two different sentences within a mini-batch are treated as a negative pair. To verify the effectiveness of our CVIB method, we conduct extensive experiments on five benchmark ABSA datasets and the experimental results show that our approach achieves better performance than the strong competitors in terms of overall prediction performance, robustness, and generalization.

Media compression standards have reached a plateau in terms of the rate-distortion-complexity trade-off, limiting the ability to offload expensive AI perception to the cloud in applications like robotics, wearables, and remote sensing. DNN-based codecs improve compression efficiency, but at a cost: they cannot easily adapt to large changes in available bitrate, and real-time encoding requires expensive, power-hungry GPUs that prohibit use on low-cost or resource-constrained platforms. To address these limitations, we propose a novel autoencoding framework (FRAPPE) that uses the Full input to predict the Residual output via a Projection Pursuit Encoder. FRAPPE's encoding objective naturally sorts latent channels by importance, allowing zero-overhead variable-rate coding. Unlike RNN-based learned codecs, whose encoder consumes the previous reconstruction's residual, or RVQ-style codecs, whose codebooks must be applied sequentially, FRAPPE's analysis path is an embarrassingly parallel DAG of independent input projections. Using FRAPPE, we build a variable-rate RGB image codec (FRAPPE-Image), and evaluate its rate-distortion-complexity trade-off against standard image codecs. At high compression ratios (approx. 0.1 bpp) FRAPPE-Image provides higher perceptual quality than AVIF with 47 times faster encoding, making it capable of real-time 1080p, 30fps CPU-only encoding. Our code and pre-trained models are available: https://github.com/UT-SysML/FRAPPE .

Linear relaxation based perturbation analysis (LiRPA) for neural networks, which computes provable linear bounds of output neurons given a certain amount of input perturbation, has become a core component in robustness verification and certified defense. The majority of LiRPA-based methods focus on simple feed-forward networks and need particular manual derivations and implementations when extended to other architectures. In this paper, we develop an automatic framework to enable perturbation analysis on any neural network structures, by generalizing existing LiRPA algorithms such as CROWN to operate on general computational graphs. The flexibility, differentiability and ease of use of our framework allow us to obtain state-of-the-art results on LiRPA based certified defense on fairly complicated networks like DenseNet, ResNeXt and Transformer that are not supported by prior works. Our framework also enables loss fusion, a technique that significantly reduces the computational complexity of LiRPA for certified defense. For the first time, we demonstrate LiRPA based certified defense on Tiny ImageNet and Downscaled ImageNet where previous approaches cannot scale to due to the relatively large number of classes. Our work also yields an open-source library for the community to apply LiRPA to areas beyond certified defense without much LiRPA expertise, e.g., we create a neural network with a probably flat optimization landscape by applying LiRPA to network parameters. Our opensource library is available at https://github.com/KaidiXu/auto_LiRPA.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly becoming commodity components of larger software systems. This poses natural security and privacy problems: poisoned data retrieved from one component can change the model's behavior and compromise the entire system, including coercing the model to spread confidential data to untrusted components. One promising approach is to tackle this problem at the system level via dynamic information flow (aka taint) tracking. Unfortunately, the traditional approach of propagating the most restrictive input label to the output is too conservative for applications where LLMs operate on inputs retrieved from diverse sources. In this paper, we propose a novel, more permissive approach to propagate information flow labels through LLM queries. The key idea behind our approach is to propagate only the labels of the samples that were influential in generating the model output and to eliminate the labels of unnecessary input. We implement and investigate the effectiveness of two variations of this approach, based on (i) prompt-based retrieval augmentation, and (ii) a k-nearest-neighbors language model. We compare these with the baseline of an introspection-based influence estimator that directly asks the language model to predict the output label. The results obtained highlight the superiority of our prompt-based label propagator, which improves the label in more than 85% of the cases in an LLM agent setting. These findings underscore the practicality of permissive label propagation for retrieval augmentation.

Interpretability tools are increasingly used to analyze failures of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet prior work largely focuses on short prompts or toy settings, leaving their behavior on commonly used benchmarks underexplored. To address this gap, we study contrastive, LRP-based attribution as a practical tool for analyzing LLM failures in realistic settings. We formulate failure analysis as contrastive attribution, attributing the logit difference between an incorrect output token and a correct alternative to input tokens and internal model states, and introduce an efficient extension that enables construction of cross-layer attribution graphs for long-context inputs. Using this framework, we conduct a systematic empirical study across benchmarks, comparing attribution patterns across datasets, model sizes, and training checkpoints. Our results show that this token-level contrastive attribution can yield informative signals in some failure cases, but is not universally applicable, highlighting both its utility and its limitations for realistic LLM failure analysis. Our code is available at: https://aka.ms/Debug-XAI.

With the growing use of information technology in all life domains, hacking has become more negatively effective than ever before. Also with developing technologies, attacks numbers are growing exponentially every few months and become more sophisticated so that traditional IDS becomes inefficient detecting them. This paper proposes a solution to detect not only new threats with higher detection rate and lower false positive than already used IDS, but also it could detect collective and contextual security attacks. We achieve those results by using Networking Chatbot, a deep recurrent neural network: Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) on top of Apache Spark Framework that has an input of flow traffic and traffic aggregation and the output is a language of two words, normal or abnormal. We propose merging the concepts of language processing, contextual analysis, distributed deep learning, big data, anomaly detection of flow analysis. We propose a model that describes the network abstract normal behavior from a sequence of millions of packets within their context and analyzes them in near real-time to detect point, collective and contextual anomalies. Experiments are done on MAWI dataset, and it shows better detection rate not only than signature IDS, but also better than traditional anomaly IDS. The experiment shows lower false positive, higher detection rate and better point anomalies detection. As for prove of contextual and collective anomalies detection, we discuss our claim and the reason behind our hypothesis. But the experiment is done on random small subsets of the dataset because of hardware limitations, so we share experiment and our future vision thoughts as we wish that full prove will be done in future by other interested researchers who have better hardware infrastructure than ours.

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is a powerful but computationally intensive method for simulating physical phenomena. Recent advancements in machine learning have led to surrogate models capable of accelerating FEA. Yet there are still limitations in developing surrogates of transient FEA models that can simultaneously predict the solutions for both nodes and elements with applicability on both the 2D and 3D domains. Motivated by this research gap, this study proposes DeepFEA, a deep learning-based framework that leverages a multilayer Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network branching into two parallel convolutional neural networks to predict the solutions for both nodes and elements of FEA models. The proposed network is optimized using a novel adaptive learning algorithm, called Node-Element Loss Optimization (NELO). NELO minimizes the error occurring at both branches of the network enabling the prediction of solutions for transient FEA simulations. The experimental evaluation of DeepFEA is performed on three datasets in the context of structural mechanics, generated to serve as publicly available reference datasets. The results show that DeepFEA can achieve less than 3% normalized mean and root mean squared error for 2D and 3D simulation scenarios, and inference times that are two orders of magnitude faster than FEA. In contrast, relevant state-of-the-art methods face challenges with multi-dimensional output and dynamic input prediction. Furthermore, DeepFEA's robustness was demonstrated in a real-life biomedical scenario, confirming its suitability for accurate and efficient predictions of FEA simulations.

To support software developers in finding and fixing software bugs, several automated program repair techniques have been introduced. Given a test suite, standard methods usually either synthesize a repair, or navigate a search space of software edits to find test-suite passing variants. Recent program repair methods are based on deep learning approaches. One of these novel methods, which is not primarily intended for automated program repair, but is still suitable for it, is ChatGPT. The bug fixing performance of ChatGPT, however, is so far unclear. Therefore, in this paper we evaluate ChatGPT on the standard bug fixing benchmark set, QuixBugs, and compare the performance with the results of several other approaches reported in the literature. We find that ChatGPT's bug fixing performance is competitive to the common deep learning approaches CoCoNut and Codex and notably better than the results reported for the standard program repair approaches. In contrast to previous approaches, ChatGPT offers a dialogue system through which further information, e.g., the expected output for a certain input or an observed error message, can be entered. By providing such hints to ChatGPT, its success rate can be further increased, fixing 31 out of 40 bugs, outperforming state-of-the-art.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great capabilities in solving a wide range of tasks in a resource-efficient manner through prompting, which does not require task-specific training, but suffers from performance fluctuation when there are multiple prompt candidates. Previous works have introduced gradient-free probability-based prompt selection methods that aim to choose the optimal prompt among the candidates for a given task but fail to provide a comprehensive and fair comparison between each other. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to interpret and evaluate the existing probability-based prompt selection methods by performing extensive experiments on 13 common NLP tasks. We find that all existing methods can be unified into some variant of the method that maximizes the mutual information between the input and the corresponding model output (denoted as MI). Using the finding, we develop several variants of MI and increases the effectiveness of the best prompt selection method from 87.79% to 94.98%, measured as the ratio of the performance of the selected prompt to that of the optimal oracle prompt. Furthermore, we propose a novel calibration method called Calibration by Marginalization (CBM) that is orthogonal to existing methods and helps increase the prompt selection effectiveness of the best method by 99.44%. The code and datasets used in our work will be released at https://github.com/soheeyang/unified-prompt-selection.

Tool-augmented LLM agents raise new security risks: tool executions can introduce runtime-only behaviors, including prompt injection and unintended exposure of external inputs (e.g., environment secrets or local files). While existing scanners often focus on static artifacts, analyzing runtime behavior is challenging because directly executing untrusted tools can itself be dangerous. We present MCP-SandboxScan, a lightweight framework motivated by the Model Context Protocol (MCP) that safely executes untrusted tools inside a WebAssembly/WASI sandbox and produces auditable reports of external-to-sink exposures. Our prototype (i) extracts LLM-relevant sinks from runtime outputs (prompt/messages and structured tool-return fields), (ii) instantiates external-input candidates from environment values, mounted file contents, and output-surfaced HTTP fetch intents, and (iii) links sources to sinks via snippet-based substring matching. Case studies on three representative tools show that MCP-SandboxScan can surface provenance evidence when external inputs appear in prompt/messages or tool-return payloads, and can expose filesystem capability violations as runtime evidence. We further compare against a lightweight static string-signature baseline and use a micro-benchmark to characterize false negatives under transformations and false positives from short-token collisions.

Prompt engineering is crucial for deploying LLMs but is poorly understood mathematically. We formalize LLM systems as a class of discrete stochastic dynamical systems to explore prompt engineering through the lens of control theory. We investigate the reachable set of output token sequences R_y(mathbf x_0) for which there exists a control input sequence mathbf u for each mathbf y in R_y(mathbf x_0) that steers the LLM to output mathbf y from initial state sequence mathbf x_0. We offer analytic analysis on the limitations on the controllability of self-attention in terms of reachable set, where we prove an upper bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) as a function of the singular values of the parameter matrices. We present complementary empirical analysis on the controllability of a panel of LLMs, including Falcon-7b, Llama-7b, and Falcon-40b. Our results demonstrate a lower bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) w.r.t. initial state sequences mathbf x_0 sampled from the Wikitext dataset. We find that the correct next Wikitext token following sequence mathbf x_0 is reachable over 97% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. We also establish that the top 75 most likely next tokens, as estimated by the LLM itself, are reachable at least 85% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. Intriguingly, short prompt sequences can dramatically alter the likelihood of specific outputs, even making the least likely tokens become the most likely ones. This control-centric analysis of LLMs demonstrates the significant and poorly understood role of input sequences in steering output probabilities, offering a foundational perspective for enhancing language model system capabilities.

Stage lighting plays an essential role in live music performances, influencing the engaging experience of both musicians and audiences. Given the high costs associated with hiring or training professional lighting engineers, Automatic Stage Lighting Control (ASLC) has gained increasing attention. However, most existing approaches only classify music into limited categories and map them to predefined light patterns, resulting in formulaic and monotonous outcomes that lack rationality. To address this issue, this paper presents an end-to-end solution that directly learns from experienced lighting engineers -- Skip-BART. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to conceptualize ASLC as a generative task rather than merely a classification problem. Our method modifies the BART model to take audio music as input and produce light hue and value (intensity) as output, incorporating a novel skip connection mechanism to enhance the relationship between music and light within the frame grid.We validate our method through both quantitative analysis and an human evaluation, demonstrating that Skip-BART outperforms conventional rule-based methods across all evaluation metrics and shows only a limited gap compared to real lighting engineers.Specifically, our method yields a p-value of 0.72 in a statistical comparison based on human evaluations with human lighting engineers, suggesting that the proposed approach closely matches human lighting engineering performance. To support further research, we have made our self-collected dataset, code, and trained model parameters available at https://github.com/RS2002/Skip-BART .

We present TIGERScore, a Trained metric that follows Instruction Guidance to perform Explainable, and Reference-free evaluation over a wide spectrum of text generation tasks. Different from other automatic evaluation methods that only provide arcane scores, TIGERScore is guided by the natural language instruction to provide error analysis to pinpoint the mistakes in the generated text. Our metric is based on LLaMA, trained on our meticulously curated instruction-tuning dataset MetricInstruct which covers 6 text generation tasks and 23 text generation datasets. The dataset consists of 48K quadruple in the form of (instruction, input, system output rightarrow error analysis). We collected the `system outputs' through diverse channels to cover different types of errors. To quantitatively assess our metric, we evaluate its correlation with human ratings on 5 held-in datasets, 2 held-out datasets and show that TIGERScore can achieve the highest overall Spearman's correlation with human ratings across these datasets and outperforms other metrics significantly. As a reference-free metric, its correlation can even surpass the best existing reference-based metrics. To further qualitatively assess the rationale generated by our metric, we conduct human evaluation on the generated explanations and found that the explanations are 70.8\% accurate. Through these experimental results, we believe TIGERScore demonstrates the possibility of building universal explainable metrics to evaluate any text generation task.

Interpretability researchers have attempted to understand MLP neurons of language models based on both the contexts in which they activate and their output weight vectors. They have paid little attention to a complementary aspect: the interactions between input and output. For example, when neurons detect a direction in the input, they might add much the same direction to the residual stream ("enrichment neurons") or reduce its presence ("depletion neurons"). We address this aspect by examining the cosine similarity between input and output weights of a neuron. We apply our method to 12 models and find that enrichment neurons dominate in early-middle layers whereas later layers tend more towards depletion. To explain this finding, we argue that enrichment neurons are largely responsible for enriching concept representations, one of the first steps of factual recall. Our input-output perspective is a complement to activation-dependent analyses and to approaches that treat input and output separately.

Mathematical reasoning---a core ability within human intelligence---presents some unique challenges as a domain: we do not come to understand and solve mathematical problems primarily on the back of experience and evidence, but on the basis of inferring, learning, and exploiting laws, axioms, and symbol manipulation rules. In this paper, we present a new challenge for the evaluation (and eventually the design) of neural architectures and similar system, developing a task suite of mathematics problems involving sequential questions and answers in a free-form textual input/output format. The structured nature of the mathematics domain, covering arithmetic, algebra, probability and calculus, enables the construction of training and test splits designed to clearly illuminate the capabilities and failure-modes of different architectures, as well as evaluate their ability to compose and relate knowledge and learned processes. Having described the data generation process and its potential future expansions, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of models from two broad classes of the most powerful sequence-to-sequence architectures and find notable differences in their ability to resolve mathematical problems and generalize their knowledge.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) achieve strong performance on multimodal tasks, yet they often default to their language prior (LP) -- memorized textual patterns from pre-training while under-utilizing visual evidence. Prior analyses of LP mostly rely on input-output probing, which fails to reveal the internal mechanisms governing when and how vision influences model behavior. To address this gap, we present the first systematic analysis of language prior through the lens of chain-of-embedding, which examines the layer-wise representation dynamics within LVLMs. Our analysis reveals a universal phenomenon: each model exhibits a Visual Integration Point (VIP), a critical layer at which visual information begins to meaningfully reshape hidden representations and influence decoding. Building on this observation, we introduce the Total Visual Integration (TVI) estimator, which aggregates representation distance beyond the VIP to quantify how strongly visual query influences response generation. Across 54 model-dataset combinations spanning 9 contemporary LVLMs and 6 benchmarks, we demonstrate that VIP consistently emerges, and that TVI reliably predicts the strength of language prior. This offers a principled toolkit for diagnosing and understanding language prior in LVLMs.

Audio-Visual Speech Recognition (AVSR) leverages both acoustic and visual information for robust recognition under noise. However, how models balance these modalities remains unclear. We present Dr. SHAP-AV, a framework using Shapley values to analyze modality contributions in AVSR. Through experiments on six models across two benchmarks and varying SNR levels, we introduce three analyses: Global SHAP for overall modality balance, Generative SHAP for contribution dynamics during decoding, and Temporal Alignment SHAP for input-output correspondence. Our findings reveal that models shift toward visual reliance under noise yet maintain high audio contributions even under severe degradation. Modality balance evolves during generation, temporal alignment holds under noise, and SNR is the dominant factor driving modality weighting. These findings expose a persistent audio bias, motivating ad-hoc modality-weighting mechanisms and Shapley-based attribution as a standard AVSR diagnostic.

The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) aims to uncover the inner workings of complex deep neural models. While being crucial for safety-critical domains, XAI inherently lacks ground-truth explanations, making its automatic evaluation an unsolved problem. We address this challenge by proposing a novel synthetic vision dataset, named FunnyBirds, and accompanying automatic evaluation protocols. Our dataset allows performing semantically meaningful image interventions, e.g., removing individual object parts, which has three important implications. First, it enables analyzing explanations on a part level, which is closer to human comprehension than existing methods that evaluate on a pixel level. Second, by comparing the model output for inputs with removed parts, we can estimate ground-truth part importances that should be reflected in the explanations. Third, by mapping individual explanations into a common space of part importances, we can analyze a variety of different explanation types in a single common framework. Using our tools, we report results for 24 different combinations of neural models and XAI methods, demonstrating the strengths and weaknesses of the assessed methods in a fully automatic and systematic manner.

The study of the attention mechanism has sparked interest in many fields, such as language modeling and machine translation. Although its patterns have been exploited to perform different tasks, from neural network understanding to textual alignment, no previous work has analysed the encoder-decoder attention behavior in speech translation (ST) nor used it to improve ST on a specific task. In this paper, we fill this gap by proposing an attention-based policy (EDAtt) for simultaneous ST (SimulST) that is motivated by an analysis of the existing attention relations between audio input and textual output. Its goal is to leverage the encoder-decoder attention scores to guide inference in real time. Results on en->{de, es} show that the EDAtt policy achieves overall better results compared to the SimulST state of the art, especially in terms of computational-aware latency.

Implicit Sentiment Analysis (ISA) aims to infer sentiment that is implied rather than explicitly stated, requiring models to perform deeper reasoning over subtle contextual cues. While recent prompting-based methods using Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in ISA, they often rely on majority voting over chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning paths without evaluating their causal validity, making them susceptible to internal biases and spurious correlations. To address this challenge, we propose CAPITAL, a causal prompting framework that incorporates front-door adjustment into CoT reasoning. CAPITAL decomposes the overall causal effect into two components: the influence of the input prompt on the reasoning chains, and the impact of those chains on the final output. These components are estimated using encoder-based clustering and the NWGM approximation, with a contrastive learning objective used to better align the encoder's representation with the LLM's reasoning space. Experiments on benchmark ISA datasets with three LLMs demonstrate that CAPITAL consistently outperforms strong prompting baselines in both accuracy and robustness, particularly under adversarial conditions. This work offers a principled approach to integrating causal inference into LLM prompting and highlights its benefits for bias-aware sentiment reasoning. The source code and case study are available at: https://github.com/whZ62/CAPITAL.

Automatic analysis of the enormous sets of images is a critical task in life sciences. This faces many challenges such as: algorithms are highly parameterized, significant human input is intertwined, and lacking a standard meta-visualization approach. This paper proposes an alternative iterative approach for optimizing input parameters, saving time by minimizing the user involvement, and allowing for understanding the workflow of algorithms and discovering new ones. The main focus is on developing an interactive visualization technique that enables users to analyze the relationships between sampled input parameters and corresponding output. This technique is implemented as a prototype called Veni Vidi Vici, or "I came, I saw, I conquered." This strategy is inspired by the mathematical formulas of numbering computable functions and is developed atop ImageJ, a scientific image processing program. A case study is presented to investigate the proposed framework. Finally, the paper explores some potential future issues in the application of the proposed approach in parameter space analysis in visualization.

Large Audio Language Models (LALMs) achieve strong performance on a variety of audio understanding tasks but continue to struggle with temporal reasoning, a fundamental capability central to human auditory perception. Understanding the causes of these failures remains challenging as existing benchmarks report performance gaps without probing underlying mechanisms. To address this, we introduce a benchmark with 1,657 questions across three foundational tasks designed specifically for mechanistic analysis. Examining model outputs across varying input settings (behavioral analysis) reveals that models often under-utilize audio when textual cues are available. We also provide the first causal mechanistic analysis of temporal reasoning failures in LALMs. Comparing attention upweighting against scaling, we find that redistributing attention across audio tokens is more effective than increasing audio attention. Targeting task-relevant tokens yields further gains. These findings suggest that modality imbalance alone cannot explain failures. Attention scaling at bottleneck layers improves accuracy from 55.9% to 59.1% without fine-tuning, demonstrating a promising direction for future work.

AI coding agents are increasingly used to write real-world software, but ensuring that their outputs are correct remains a fundamental challenge. Formal verification offers a promising path: an agent generates code together with a machine-checked proof, guaranteeing that the code satisfies a formal specification. However, there is no guarantee that the formal spec itself matches the user's intent. In this work, we study specification autoformalization: whether LLM agents can translate informal programming problems into faithful formal specifications. We introduce Verus-SpecBench, a benchmark of 581 spec-writing tasks derived from Codeforces problems targeting Verus, a verifier for Rust, and Verus-SpecGym, an agentic environment in which models interact with Verus, bash, & the filesystem to develop these specs. The central challenge is evaluation: expert-written reference specs are expensive to write, & LLM judges can miss subtle mistakes. We address this by (a) extending Verus's exec_spec mechanism so that generated specs can be executed as Rust code, & (b) testing them against official Codeforces tests & adversarial cases extracted from Codeforces "hacks", which are edge cases written by competitors to break incorrect solutions. On Verus-SpecBench, the strongest model, Gemini 3.1 Pro, solves 77.8% of tasks, other frontier models solve 51.1--57.8% & OSS models reach only 21.5--25.5%. Our analysis of failure modes shows that model-generated specs can omit important input assumptions, accept incorrect outputs, & reject valid ones. We also find that LLM-as-a-judge evaluation misses 26% of the failures our evaluator catches. Overall, our results suggest that spec autoformalization is within reach for frontier agents but remains brittle even on problems where they can already generate correct code. The code, data, & logs can be found at https://github.com/formal-verif-is-cool/verus-spec-gym

Recent advances in retrieval-augmented models for image captioning highlight the benefit of retrieving related captions for efficient, lightweight models with strong domain-transfer capabilities. While these models demonstrate the success of retrieval augmentation, retrieval models are still far from perfect in practice: the retrieved information can sometimes mislead the model, resulting in incorrect generation and worse performance. In this paper, we analyze the robustness of a retrieval-augmented captioning model SmallCap. Our analysis shows that the model is sensitive to tokens that appear in the majority of the retrieved captions, and the input attribution shows that those tokens are likely copied into the generated output. Given these findings, we propose to train the model by sampling retrieved captions from more diverse sets. This decreases the chance that the model learns to copy majority tokens, and improves both in-domain and cross-domain performance.

This paper describes the architecture and implementation of a rule-based grapheme to phoneme converter for Turkish. The system accepts surface form as input, outputs SAMPA mapping of the all parallel pronounciations according to the morphological analysis together with stress positions. The system has been implemented in Python

Spatial reasoning, the ability to determine where objects are, how they relate, and how they move in 3D, remains a fundamental challenge for vision-language models (VLMs). Tool-augmented agents attempt to address this by augmenting VLMs with specialist perception modules, yet their effectiveness is bounded by the action interface through which those tools are invoked. In this work, we study how the design of this interface shapes the agent's capacity for open-ended spatial reasoning. Existing spatial agents either employ single-pass code execution, which commits to a full analysis strategy before any intermediate result is observed, or rely on a structured tool-call interface that often offers less flexibility for freely composing operations or tailoring the analysis to each task. Both designs offer limited flexibility for open-ended, complex 3D/4D spatial reasoning. We therefore propose SpatialClaw, a training-free framework for spatial reasoning that adopts code as the action interface. SpatialClaw maintains a stateful Python kernel pre-loaded with input frames and a suite of perception and geometry primitives, letting a VLM-backed agent write one executable cell per step conditioned on all prior outputs, enabling the agent to flexibly compose and manipulate perception results and adapt its analysis to both intermediate text and visual observations and the demands of each problem. Evaluated across 20 spatial reasoning benchmarks spanning a broad range of static and dynamic 3D/4D spatial reasoning tasks, SpatialClaw achieves 59.9% average accuracy, outperforming the recent spatial agent by +11.2 points, with consistent gains across six VLM backbones from two model families without any benchmark- or model-specific adaptation.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art video generation quality, but their inference remains expensive due to the large number of sequential denoising steps. This has motivated a growing line of research on accelerating diffusion inference. Among training-free acceleration methods, caching reduces computation by reusing previously computed model outputs across timesteps. Existing caching methods rely on heuristic criteria to choose cache/reuse timesteps and require extensive tuning. We address this limitation with a principled sensitivity-aware caching framework. Specifically, we formalize the caching error through an analysis of the model output sensitivity to perturbations in the denoising inputs, i.e., the noisy latent and the timestep, and show that this sensitivity is a key predictor of caching error. Based on this analysis, we propose Sensitivity-Aware Caching (SenCache), a dynamic caching policy that adaptively selects caching timesteps on a per-sample basis. Our framework provides a theoretical basis for adaptive caching, explains why prior empirical heuristics can be partially effective, and extends them to a dynamic, sample-specific approach. Experiments on Wan 2.1, CogVideoX, and LTX-Video show that SenCache achieves better visual quality than existing caching methods under similar computational budgets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are primarily designed for batch processing. Existing methods for adapting LLMs to streaming rely either on expensive re-encoding or specialized architectures with limited scalability. This work identifies three key mismatches in adapting batch-oriented LLMs to streaming: (1) input-attention, (2) output-attention, and (3) position-ID mismatches. While it is commonly assumed that the latter two mismatches require frequent re-encoding, our analysis reveals that only the input-attention mismatch significantly impacts performance, indicating re-encoding outputs is largely unnecessary. To better understand this discrepancy with the common assumption, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of position encoding on LLMs in streaming, showing that preserving relative positions within source and target contexts is more critical than maintaining absolute order. Motivated by the above analysis, we introduce a group position encoding paradigm built on batch architectures to enhance consistency between streaming and batch modes. Extensive experiments on cross-lingual and cross-modal tasks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches. Our method requires no architectural modifications, exhibits strong generalization in both streaming and batch modes. The code is available at repository https://github.com/EIT-NLP/StreamingLLM.

The sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) task aims at generating the target sequence based on the given input source sequence. Traditionally, most of the seq2seq task is resolved by the Encoder-Decoder framework which requires an encoder to encode the source sequence and a decoder to generate the target text. Recently, a bunch of new approaches have emerged that apply decoder-only language models directly to the seq2seq task. Despite the significant advancements in applying language models to the seq2seq task, there is still a lack of thorough analysis on the effectiveness of the decoder-only language model architecture. This paper aims to address this gap by conducting a detailed comparison between the encoder-decoder architecture and the decoder-only language model framework through the analysis of a regularized encoder-decoder structure. This structure is designed to replicate all behaviors in the classical decoder-only language model but has an encoder and a decoder making it easier to be compared with the classical encoder-decoder structure. Based on the analysis, we unveil the attention degeneration problem in the language model, namely, as the generation step number grows, less and less attention is focused on the source sequence. To give a quantitative understanding of this problem, we conduct a theoretical sensitivity analysis of the attention output with respect to the source input. Grounded on our analysis, we propose a novel partial attention language model to solve the attention degeneration problem. Experimental results on machine translation, summarization, and data-to-text generation tasks support our analysis and demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

We propose a novel interpretation technique to explain the behavior of structured output models, which learn mappings between an input vector to a set of output variables simultaneously. Because of the complex relationship between the computational path of output variables in structured models, a feature can affect the value of output through other ones. We focus on one of the outputs as the target and try to find the most important features utilized by the structured model to decide on the target in each locality of the input space. In this paper, we assume an arbitrary structured output model is available as a black box and argue how considering the correlations between output variables can improve the explanation performance. The goal is to train a function as an interpreter for the target output variable over the input space. We introduce an energy-based training process for the interpreter function, which effectively considers the structural information incorporated into the model to be explained. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed using a variety of simulated and real data sets.

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

Earth observation data such as satellite imagery can, when combined with machine learning, have profound impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty through the prediction of living conditions, especially where government-derived economic indicators are either unavailable or potentially untrustworthy. Recent work has progressed in using EO data not only to predict spatial economic outcomes, but also to explore cause and effect, an understanding which is critical for downstream policy analysis. In this review, we first document the growth of interest in EO-ML analyses in the causal space. We then trace the relationship between spatial statistics and EO-ML methods before discussing the four ways in which EO data has been used in causal ML pipelines -- (1.) poverty outcome imputation for downstream causal analysis, (2.) EO image deconfounding, (3.) EO-based treatment effect heterogeneity, and (4.) EO-based transportability analysis. We conclude by providing a workflow for how researchers can incorporate EO data in causal ML analysis going forward.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

As global fertilizer application rates increase, high-quality datasets are paramount for comprehensive analyses to support informed decision-making and policy formulation in crucial areas such as food security or climate change. This study aims to fill existing data gaps by employing two machine learning models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and HistGradientBoosting algorithms to produce precise country-level predictions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P_2O_5), and potassium oxide (K_2O) application rates. Subsequently, we created a comprehensive dataset of 5-arcmin resolution maps depicting the application rates of each fertilizer for 13 major crop groups from 1961 to 2019. The predictions were validated by both comparing with existing databases and by assessing the drivers of fertilizer application rates using the model's SHapley Additive exPlanations. This extensive dataset is poised to be a valuable resource for assessing fertilization trends, identifying the socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental drivers of fertilizer application rates, and serving as an input for various applications, including environmental modeling, causal analysis, fertilizer price predictions, and forecasting.

The paper explores the transformation of port logistics operations with artificial intelligence during the port transformation into a smart port. The research integrates capabilities-based resource analysis and dynamic capabilities with sociotechnicalimplementations of technologies and resilience approaches of complex systems under disruptions. The system applies robustdata infrastructures to propel analytical and AI modules that become effective once integrated with sufficient governance systems and trained personnel and operational processes to transform planning and safety and sustainability operations.It applies Scopus bibliometric research to analyze 123 articles using a systematic approach with both a search protocol and a document screening and duplication verification. It incorporates annual behavior and distribution of author and country performance analysis with science mapping techniques that explore keyword relation and co-citation and bibliographic coupling and conceptual structuring tools that construct thematic maps and multiple correspondence analysis with community detection while applying explicit thresholding and robust tests.The research connects AI applications to smart port domains through specific data-to-impact pathways while providing a method for bibliometric analysis that enables future updates. The research presents a step-by-step approach for data readiness followed by predictive and optimization implementation and organizational integration. The paper supports public policy through recommendations for data sharing standards and complete environmental benefit assessments. The research proposes a future study plan whichcombines field-based testing with multiple port assessments to enhance both cause-effect understanding and research applicability.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

Automated interpretability pipelines generate natural language descriptions for the concepts represented by features in large language models (LLMs), such as plants or the first word in a sentence. These descriptions are derived using inputs that activate the feature, which may be a dimension or a direction in the model's representation space. However, identifying activating inputs is costly, and the mechanistic role of a feature in model behavior is determined both by how inputs cause a feature to activate and by how feature activation affects outputs. Using steering evaluations, we reveal that current pipelines provide descriptions that fail to capture the causal effect of the feature on outputs. To fix this, we propose efficient, output-centric methods for automatically generating feature descriptions. These methods use the tokens weighted higher after feature stimulation or the highest weight tokens after applying the vocabulary "unembedding" head directly to the feature. Our output-centric descriptions better capture the causal effect of a feature on model outputs than input-centric descriptions, but combining the two leads to the best performance on both input and output evaluations. Lastly, we show that output-centric descriptions can be used to find inputs that activate features previously thought to be "dead".

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

The progress in generative AI has fueled AI-powered tools like co-pilots and assistants to provision better guidance, particularly during data analysis. However, research on guidance has not yet examined the perceived efficacy of the source from which guidance is offered and the impact of this source on the user's perception and usage of guidance. We ask whether users perceive all guidance sources as equal, with particular interest in three sources: (i) AI, (ii) human expert, and (iii) a group of human analysts. As a benchmark, we consider a fourth source, (iv) unattributed guidance, where guidance is provided without attribution to any source, enabling isolation of and comparison with the effects of source-specific guidance. We design a five-condition between-subjects study, with one condition for each of the four guidance sources and an additional (v) no-guidance condition, which serves as a baseline to evaluate the influence of any kind of guidance. We situate our study in a custom data preparation and analysis tool wherein we task users to select relevant attributes from an unfamiliar dataset to inform a business report. Depending on the assigned condition, users can request guidance, which the system then provides in the form of attribute suggestions. To ensure internal validity, we control for the quality of guidance across source-conditions. Through several metrics of usage and perception, we statistically test five preregistered hypotheses and report on additional analysis. We find that the source of guidance matters to users, but not in a manner that matches received wisdom. For instance, users utilize guidance differently at various stages of analysis, including expressing varying levels of regret, despite receiving guidance of similar quality. Notably, users in the AI condition reported both higher post-task benefit and regret.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

We study long-run progress in artificial intelligence in a quantitative way. Many measures, including traditional ones such as patents and publications, machine learning benchmarks, and a new Aggregate State of the Art in ML (or ASOTA) Index we have constructed from these, show exponential growth at roughly constant rates over long periods. Production of patents and publications doubles every ten years, by contrast with the growth of computing resources driven by Moore's Law, roughly a doubling every two years. We argue that the input of AI researchers is also crucial and its contribution can be objectively estimated. Consequently, we give a simple argument that explains the 5:1 relation between these two rates. We then discuss the application of this argument to different output measures and compare our analyses with predictions based on machine learning scaling laws proposed in existing literature. Our quantitative framework facilitates understanding, predicting, and modulating the development of these important technologies.

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

The global trade in electronic and electrical goods is complicated by the challenge of identifying e-waste, which is often misclassified to evade regulations. Traditional analysis methods struggle to discern the underlying patterns of this illicit trade within vast datasets. This research proposes and validates a robust, data-driven framework to segment products and identify goods exhibiting an anomalous "waste signature" a trade pattern defined by a clear 'inverse price-volume'. The core of the framework is an Outlier-Aware Segmentation method, an iterative K-Means approach that first isolates extreme outliers to prevent data skewing and then re-clusters the remaining products to reveal subtle market segments. To quantify risk, a "Waste Score" is developed using a Logistic Regression model that identifies products whose trade signatures are statistically similar to scrap. The findings reveal a consistent four-tier market hierarchy in both Malaysian and global datasets. A key pattern emerged from a comparative analysis: Malaysia's market structure is defined by high-volume bulk commodities, whereas the global market is shaped by high-value capital goods, indicating a unique national specialization. The framework successfully flags finished goods, such as electric generators (HS 8502), that are traded like scrap, providing a targeted list for regulatory scrutiny.

This study examines the relationship between trade openness, logistics performance, and economic growth within G20 economies. Using a Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model augmented by a dynamic error correction mechanism (ECM), the analysis quantifies both short run and long run effects of trade facilitation and logistics infrastructure, measured via the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) from 2007 to 2023, on economic growth. The G20, as a consortium of the world's leading economies, exhibits significant variation in logistics efficiency and degrees of trade openness, providing a robust context for comparative analysis. The ARDL-ECM approach, reinforced by bootstrap resampling, delivers reliable estimates even in the presence of small samples and complex variable linkages. Findings are intended to inform policymakers seeking to enhance trade competitiveness and economic development through targeted investment in infrastructure and regulatory reforms supporting trade facilitation. The results underscore the critical role of efficient logistics specifically customs administration, physical infrastructure, and shipment reliability in driving international trade and fostering sustained economic growth. Improvements in these areas can substantially increase a country's trade capacity and overall economic performance.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), has raised concerns regarding its global environmental impact that extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include consideration of hardware fabrication and end-of-life processes. The opacity from major providers hinders companies' abilities to evaluate their AI-related environmental impacts and achieve net-zero targets. In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate the environmental impact of a company's AI portfolio, providing actionable insights without necessitating extensive AI and Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) expertise. Results confirm that large generative AI models consume up to 4600x more energy than traditional models. Our modelling approach, which accounts for increased AI usage, hardware computing efficiency, and changes in electricity mix in line with IPCC scenarios, forecasts AI electricity use up to 2030. Under a high adoption scenario, driven by widespread Generative AI and agents adoption associated to increasingly complex models and frameworks, AI electricity use is projected to rise by a factor of 24.4. Mitigating the environmental impact of Generative AI by 2030 requires coordinated efforts across the AI value chain. Isolated measures in hardware efficiency, model efficiency, or grid improvements alone are insufficient. We advocate for standardized environmental assessment frameworks, greater transparency from the all actors of the value chain and the introduction of a "Return on Environment" metric to align AI development with net-zero goals.

In this paper, we introduce the idea of decomposing the residuals of regression with respect to the data instances instead of features. This allows us to determine the effects of each individual instance on the model and each other, and in doing so makes for a model-agnostic method of identifying instances of interest. In doing so, we can also determine the appropriateness of the model and data in the wider context of a given study. The paper focuses on the possible applications that such a framework brings to the relatively unexplored field of instance analysis in the context of Explainable AI tasks.

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

The advent of Industry 4.0 has precipitated the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods within industrial contexts, aiming to realize intelligent manufacturing, operation as well as maintenance, also known as industrial intelligence. However, intricate industrial milieus, particularly those relating to energy exploration and production, frequently encompass data characterized by long-tailed class distribution, sample imbalance, and domain shift. These attributes pose noteworthy challenges to data-centric Deep Learning (DL) techniques, crucial for the realization of industrial intelligence. The present study centers on the intricate and distinctive industrial scenarios of Nuclear Power Generation (NPG), meticulously scrutinizing the application of DL techniques under the constraints of finite data samples. Initially, the paper expounds on potential employment scenarios for AI across the full life-cycle of NPG. Subsequently, we delve into an evaluative exposition of DL's advancement, grounded in the finite sample perspective. This encompasses aspects such as small-sample learning, few-shot learning, zero-shot learning, and open-set recognition, also referring to the unique data characteristics of NPG. The paper then proceeds to present two specific case studies. The first revolves around the automatic recognition of zirconium alloy metallography, while the second pertains to open-set recognition for signal diagnosis of machinery sensors. These cases, spanning the entirety of NPG's life-cycle, are accompanied by constructive outcomes and insightful deliberations. By exploring and applying DL methodologies within the constraints of finite sample availability, this paper not only furnishes a robust technical foundation but also introduces a fresh perspective toward the secure and efficient advancement and exploitation of this advanced energy source.

Time-series data is critical across many scientific and industrial domains, including environmental analysis, agriculture, transportation, and finance. However, mining insights from this data typically requires deep domain expertise, a process that is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. In this paper, we propose Insight Miner, a large-scale multimodal model (LMM) designed to generate high-quality, comprehensive time-series descriptions enriched with domain-specific knowledge. To facilitate this, we introduce TS-InsightsAvailable at \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/zhykoties/time-series-language-alignment{https://huggingface.co/datasets/zhykoties/time-series-language-alignment}.}, the first general-domain dataset for time series and language alignment. TS-Insights contains 100k time-series windows sampled from 20 forecasting datasets. We construct this dataset using a novel agentic workflow, where we use statistical tools to extract features from raw time series before synthesizing them into coherent trend descriptions with GPT-4. Following instruction tuning on TS-Insights, Insight Miner outperforms state-of-the-art multimodal models, such as LLaVA liu2023llava and GPT-4, in generating time-series descriptions and insights. Our findings suggest a promising direction for leveraging LMMs in time series analysis, and serve as a foundational step toward enabling LLMs to interpret time series as a native input modality.

Data analytics is essential for extracting valuable insights from data that can assist organizations in making effective decisions. We introduce InsightBench, a benchmark dataset with three key features. First, it consists of 100 datasets representing diverse business use cases such as finance and incident management, each accompanied by a carefully curated set of insights planted in the datasets. Second, unlike existing benchmarks focusing on answering single queries, InsightBench evaluates agents based on their ability to perform end-to-end data analytics, including formulating questions, interpreting answers, and generating a summary of insights and actionable steps. Third, we conducted comprehensive quality assurance to ensure that each dataset in the benchmark had clear goals and included relevant and meaningful questions and analysis. Furthermore, we implement a two-way evaluation mechanism using LLaMA-3 as an effective, open-source evaluator to assess agents' ability to extract insights. We also propose AgentPoirot, our baseline data analysis agent capable of performing end-to-end data analytics. Our evaluation on InsightBench shows that AgentPoirot outperforms existing approaches (such as Pandas Agent) that focus on resolving single queries. We also compare the performance of open- and closed-source LLMs and various evaluation strategies. Overall, this benchmark serves as a testbed to motivate further development in comprehensive automated data analytics and can be accessed here: https://github.com/ServiceNow/insight-bench.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

As large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their powerful capabilities in plenty of domains and tasks, including context understanding, code generation, language generation, data storytelling, etc., many data analysts may raise concerns if their jobs will be replaced by AI. This controversial topic has drawn a lot of attention in public. However, we are still at a stage of divergent opinions without any definitive conclusion. Motivated by this, we raise the research question of "is GPT-4 a good data analyst?" in this work and aim to answer it by conducting head-to-head comparative studies. In detail, we regard GPT-4 as a data analyst to perform end-to-end data analysis with databases from a wide range of domains. We propose a framework to tackle the problems by carefully designing the prompts for GPT-4 to conduct experiments. We also design several task-specific evaluation metrics to systematically compare the performance between several professional human data analysts and GPT-4. Experimental results show that GPT-4 can achieve comparable performance to humans. We also provide in-depth discussions about our results to shed light on further studies before we reach the conclusion that GPT-4 can replace data analysts.