Daily Papers

General-purpose skills promise reusable procedural knowledge for language agents, yet semantic relevance does not guarantee execution utility: a retrieved skill may encode assumptions that conflict with the current task, execution environment, or other retrieved skills. We formalize this problem as the skill--execution misfit. To address it, we propose SkillAligner, a training-free execution-time skill adaptation framework that treats retrieved skills as adaptable drafts rather than fixed instructions. Before execution, SkillAligner performs a one-time joint adaptation that specializes useful skill fragments to task requirements, aligns their procedural assumptions with the available execution interface, and composes the resulting guidance by resolving dependencies, conflicts, and redundancy across skills. The adapted content is consolidated into a compact execution guide and reused throughout the subsequent trajectory. Extensive experiments across diverse agent benchmarks and model backbones show that SkillAligner substantially improves task performance over existing skill-use baselines, reduces skill-induced regressions at the instance level, and lowers total inference cost.

Agent skills are the de facto mechanism for extending LLM agents with reusable guidance. A skill can shape the agent's task execution, including planning, tool use, problem-solving, and validation. Prior work reported mixed results of agent skills: some skills improve task success rates, while others have no effect, increase token use and execution time, and even reduce success rates. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of skill-induced agent failures by attributing task failures and cost regressions to specific loaded skills. We introduce a differential analysis framework that attributes a failure or regression to a skill by comparing a target skill-guided run against a no-skill or semantically matched skill reference run that solves the same task, or solves it more cheaply. We instantiate this framework on SkillsBench and SWE-Skills-Bench, yielding 307 skill-induced failures, including 125 functional failures and 182 efficiency regressions. We also build SkillTriage, a taxonomy-guided attribution tool that normalizes paired cases, extracts differential evidence, and produces triage reports. Our major findings include: (1) Skill induced functional failures are rarely caused by obviously irrelevant skills; instead, seemingly relevant skills often make the agent incorrectly implement or omit task-required implementation elements. (2) Skill-induced efficiency regressions are not explained by prompt length alone. (3) The largest sources within Excessive Procedure are excessive verification and heavy implementation pipelines, contributing 67 and 30 cases, respectively. This shows that skills often turn validation checklists and construction recipes into mandatory work. Based on our findings, we propose research topics and tooling improvements for safer and more cost-aware skill reuse.

Adding procedural skills to an LLM agent is typically evaluated by average improvement in task success. However, this metric hides an important cost: skills can also make agents worse. We measure both sides by comparing agents with and without skills across nearly 6,000 runs spanning two office automation benchmarks and three model harness stacks. This allows us to distinguish two outcomes. A regression is a task solved without skills but failed after skills are added. A residual failure is a task that fails both with and without skills. We find that regressions are substantial enough that the best performing skills outperform others primarily by regressing less, not by gaining more. We identify three causes of regression: (i) skill description osmosis, a skill changes an agent's behavior simply by being present in context, even when it is never invoked; (ii) grounding displacement, a skill's prescribed procedure overrides how the agent interprets its inputs; and (iii) verification displacement, where the procedure suppresses checks the agent would otherwise perform on its outputs. Analysing persistent failures reveals the same underlying pattern. Existing skills overemphasize procedural guidance the stage least often responsible for failure while under supporting grounding and verification, the dominant sources of remaining errors. After correcting evaluation artifacts and studying traces, we find many regressions and persistent failures recoverable through better grounding and verification. Procedural skills should be evaluated by decomposing their net effect into gains and regressions, not by aggregate improvement alone. We identify three regression modes skills should avoid, and find that reliability depends more on grounding and verification than on procedural skill choice.

Skills are a promising way to improve LLM agent capabilities without retraining, while keeping the added procedure reusable and controllable. However, high-quality skills are still largely written by hand. We introduce SkillGen, a multi-agent framework that synthesizes a single auditable skill from trajectories generated by a base agent. The output is a human-readable artifact that can be inspected before use. Rather than merely summarizing trajectories, SkillGen leverages contrastive induction over both successful and failed trajectories to identify reusable success patterns, recurring failure modes, and behaviors that appear in nearby successes but are missing from failures. SkillGen then generates candidate skills and iteratively refines the skill. A key novelty in SkillGen is that we model agent skills as interventions to empirically verify the net effect of skills on the overall performance. Specifically, we compare outcomes on the same instances with and without the skill, so that we account for both repairs (cases where the skill fixes a baseline failure) and regressions (cases where the skill breaks a baseline success). Across a broad range of agents and datasets, SkillGen consistently improves held-out performance, outperforms existing skill-generation baselines, and produces skills that transfer across models.

Skills have emerged as a practical and effective approach for enhancing LLM agents at inference time through structured packages of knowledge. However, existing evaluations largely measure whether skills improve aggregated task success, leaving a more fundamental question underexplored: \textbf{When do skills help, why do they work, and where do they fail?} Through controlled experiments across various benchmarks, agent harnesses and LLMs, we isolate the effects of representation, outcome annotation, retrieval difficulty, and cross-framework robustness of skills. To further answer this question, we design a contrastive study that combines controlled quantitative experiments with paired trajectory analysis. We normalize 8,135 trial records from controlled experiments and retain 238 valid unique labels from 240 open-coded records. We consolidate these observations into a taxonomy of three high-level categories and twelve skill-use modes: skills work when noisy trajectories become procedural anchors that stabilize execution. Skills improve over Workflow Memory by 6.06 points in matched comparisons. Procedural anchoring accounts for 65.7\% of skill cases, versus 4.5\% for explicit knowledge injection, showing that skills stabilize action rather than inject missing facts. Retrieval is a separate bottleneck: as pools grow from 5 to 100, actual-use precision falls from 29.6\% to 3.3\%. Confusable distractors impair offline identification, yet downstream success remains stable; exact ground-truth invocation is neither sufficient nor necessary. Skills fail under brittle assumptions, incompatible contexts, or insufficient adaptation. These findings move evaluation beyond aggregate success rates and guide reliable self-evolving agents.

Reasoning models leveraging long chains of thought employ various cognitive skills, such as verification of their answers, backtracking, retrying by an alternate method, and more. Previous work has shown that when a base language model exhibits these skills, training that model further with reinforcement learning (RL) can learn to leverage them. How can we get models to leverage skills that aren't exhibited by base models? Our work, SkillFactory, is a method for fine-tuning models to roughly learn these skills during a supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage prior to RL. Our approach does not rely on distillation from a stronger model, but instead uses samples from the model itself, rearranged to provide training data in the format of those skills. These "silver" SFT traces may be imperfect, but are nevertheless effective for priming a model to acquire skills during RL. Our evaluation shows that (1) starting from SkillFactory SFT initialization helps a model to generalize to harder variants of a task post-RL, despite lower performance pre-RL; (2) cognitive skills are indeed used by the model; (3) RLed SkillFactory models are more robust to regression on out-of-domain tasks than RLed base models. Our work suggests that inductive biases learned prior to RL help models learn robust cognitive skill use.

Skill-augmented reinforcement learning improves language agents by storing reusable procedural knowledge acquired from past experience. Existing methods typically use strong language models to analyze trajectories, generate skills, and update a retrievable skill bank during online training. However, they rarely assess whether a newly generated skill is useful before it is stored and reused. We find that this assumption is unreliable: even skills generated by proprietary frontier LLMs exhibit highly mixed utility, with many providing little benefit or even degrading performance. Once such skills enter the bank, their effects are difficult to identify, because subsequent rollout feedback is delayed and usually reflects the combined effect of multiple retrieved skills rather than the marginal contribution of any individual skill. We propose an online reinforcement learning framework for pre-storage skill validation. The framework estimates whether a candidate skill contributes useful information beyond the skills already retrieved for the current task. It uses the standard rollout budget to form two matched groups under the same task and retrieval context: base rollouts conditioned on the currently retrieved skills, and skill-augmented rollouts conditioned on the same skills plus one candidate skill induced from the base trajectories. The reward gap between these two groups estimates the candidate skill's context-dependent marginal utility, enabling the framework to promote useful skills while filtering ineffective or harmful ones without additional rollout overhead. The framework further uses this marginal-utility signal to train the policy itself as a skill generator, reducing reliance on repeated calls to proprietary models. The learned skill-generation likelihood serves as a context-dependent score for retrieval-time reranking and outdated-skill pruning as the policy evolves.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Enabling large language model (LLM) agents to accumulate and reuse experience from past interactions remains a central challenge in real-world applications. A promising solution is to treat skills as trainable states and optimize them in the same way as model parameters in neural network training. However, data-driven skill optimization is prone to overfitting to the limited trajectories collected from real environments. Overexploiting these trajectories overfits the current batch, while unconstrained exploration causes regression on previously solved cases. This tension motivates a constrained search view of skill self-evolution, governed by an exploration--exploitation trade-off. We propose SkillBoost, a three-stage framework that mitigates both risks: structured exploitation localizes observed failures to editable skill components, prior-guided exploration draws on prior knowledge in the LLM to generate diverse repair candidates, and verified acceptance commits a candidate only when it improves performance within a regression bound. Experiments across 23 model--benchmark configurations show that SkillBoost achieves state-of-the-art performance while mitigating overfitting, outperforming both human-crafted and LLM-generated skills. Transfer experiments further show that optimized skills can be reused by other agents on similar tasks.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Recently, the practice of augmenting LLM agent capability with skills has gained prevalence. We explore the cost effective adaptation of agents to novel domains by means of learning skills. Existing works focus on performance gain over cost effectiveness. As a result, little is known about what skill learning strategies save cost. We argue that among all the different skill learning methods, those that view skills as programs can achieve the best cost reduction. By executing sequences of actions deterministically, a program-augmented agent can reliably and cheaply achieve goals that would otherwise require trial and error and risk degenerate behavior over long horizons. An agent can learn at inference time by incrementally discovering these programs and equipping them for future tasks. We hypothesize that past trajectories contain enough signal to guide skill learning, even without replay or validation, provided the agent can learn to analyze them. To test our claims, we propose SpeedRunner, a coding agent that analyzes trajectories and refactors skills for better performance on future tasks. Across three different embodied environments, we show that SpeedRunner consistently achieves the frontier in learning and cost reduction while remaining robust against distribution shifts and environmental randomness.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Large language model agents increasingly rely on external skills to solve complex tasks, where skills act as modular units that extend their capabilities beyond what parametric memory alone supports. Existing methods assume external skills either accumulate as persistent guidance or internalized into the policy, eventually leading to zero-skill inference. We argue this assumption is overly restrictive, since with limited parametric capacity and uneven marginal contribution across skills, the optimal active skill set is non-monotonic, task- and stage-dependent. In this work, we propose SLIM, a framework of dynamic Skill LIfecycle Management for agentic reinforcement learning (RL), which treats the active external skill set as a dynamic optimization variable jointly updated with policy learning. Specifically, SLIM estimates each active skill's marginal external contribution through leave-one-skill-out validation, then applies three lifecycle operations: retaining high-value skills, retiring skills whose contribution becomes negligible after sufficient exposure, and expanding the skill bank when persistent failures reveal missing capability coverage. Experiments show that SLIM outperforms the best baselines by an average of 7.1% points across ALFWorld and SearchQA. Results further indicate that policy learning and external skill retention are not mutually exclusive: some skills are absorbed into the policy, while others continue to provide external value, supporting SLIM as a more general paradigm for skill-based agentic RL.

With the rise of large language models (LLMs) for flexibly processing information as strings, a natural application is regression, specifically by preprocessing string representations into LLM embeddings as downstream features for metric prediction. In this paper, we provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into embedding-based regression and demonstrate that LLM embeddings as features can be better for high-dimensional regression tasks than using traditional feature engineering. This regression performance can be explained in part due to LLM embeddings over numeric data inherently preserving Lipschitz continuity over the feature space. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of different model effects, most notably model size and language understanding, which we find surprisingly do not always improve regression performance.

Existing skill generation methods largely rely on heuristics or pipeline-style consolidation, which must be specially designed for different evidence sources. In contrast, learning-based approaches offer a more unified way to model skill generation across heterogeneous sources. However, learning-based skill generation remains challenging because skills lack a natural supervision signal based on relevance or correctness; their value can largely be determined only by whether they improve the behavior of the agent on downstream tasks. To address this challenge, we propose Skill-α, a reinforcement learning method for progressively generating high-quality agent skills. Specifically, we formulate skill generation as a sequential editing process that decomposes skill construction into individually evaluable edits, and introduce a novel rollback reward that evaluates each edit by comparing downstream execution under the original and edited skills on an anchored query. Extensive experiments show that Skill-α generates more effective skills than methods based on heuristics or pipelines in both document-to-skill and experience-to-skill settings. Under the main GPT-4o worker, Skill-α improves average downstream success rates over the strongest skill-generation baseline by 3.3 points on CL-Bench and 6.7 points on tau2-bench. Further ablations validate the importance of rollback reward and progressive generation.

Language agents increasingly improve by reusing skills -- structured procedural artifacts distilled from past experience. In particular, domain-level and model-generated skills are especially promising. They offer fast adaptation within a domain by encoding domain-specific recurring procedures, and they scale beyond labor-intensive hand-crafting. However, while extraction methods continue to proliferate, understanding remains limited, with no comprehensive study spanning the full skill lifecycle -- experience generation, skill extraction, and skill consumption -- to ask whether such skills actually work, when they work, and what makes them succeed or fail. To close this gap, we build a utility-grounded evaluation framework that provides systematic experimental results across extractors and target agents, covering five diverse agentic task domains. We find that model-generated skills are beneficial on average but exhibit non-trivial negative transfer, and that neither extractors nor targets behave uniformly. A model can be a strong extractor yet a weak consumer, or vice versa, with skill utility independent of model scale or baseline task strength. To explain these patterns, we then dissect each lifecycle stage in depth, analyzing how experience composition shapes skill quality, what properties characterize useful skills, and how the same skill transfers across different consumers. Finally, we translate these findings into a concrete meta-skill that guides skill extraction toward the features tied to actual utility, which consistently improves skill quality across domains and substantially reduces negative transfer.

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

A modular design encourages neural models to disentangle and recombine different facets of knowledge to generalise more systematically to new tasks. In this work, we assume that each task is associated with a subset of latent discrete skills from a (potentially small) inventory. In turn, skills correspond to parameter-efficient (sparse / low-rank) model parameterisations. By jointly learning these and a task-skill allocation matrix, the network for each task is instantiated as the average of the parameters of active skills. To favour non-trivial soft partitions of skills across tasks, we experiment with a series of inductive biases, such as an Indian Buffet Process prior and a two-speed learning rate. We evaluate our latent-skill model on two main settings: 1) multitask reinforcement learning for grounded instruction following on 8 levels of the BabyAI platform; and 2) few-shot adaptation of pre-trained text-to-text generative models on CrossFit, a benchmark comprising 160 NLP tasks. We find that the modular design of a network significantly increases sample efficiency in reinforcement learning and few-shot generalisation in supervised learning, compared to baselines with fully shared, task-specific, or conditionally generated parameters where knowledge is entangled across tasks. In addition, we show how discrete skills help interpretability, as they yield an explicit hierarchy of tasks.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Although language models are trained to mimic humans, the resulting systems display capabilities beyond the scope of any one person. To understand this phenomenon, we use a controlled setting to identify properties of the training data that lead a model to transcend the performance of its data sources. We build on previous work to outline three modes of transcendence, which we call skill denoising, skill selection, and skill generalization. We then introduce a knowledge graph-based setting in which simulated experts generate data based on their individual expertise. We highlight several aspects of data diversity that help to enable the model's transcendent capabilities. Additionally, our data generation setting offers a controlled testbed that we hope is valuable for future research in the area.

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

The labor market is changing rapidly, prompting increased interest in the automatic extraction of occupational skills from text. With the advent of English benchmark job description datasets, there is a need for systems that handle their diversity well. We tackle the complexity in occupational skill datasets tasks -- combining and leveraging multiple datasets for skill extraction, to identify rarely observed skills within a dataset, and overcoming the scarcity of skills across datasets. In particular, we investigate the retrieval-augmentation of language models, employing an external datastore for retrieving similar skills in a dataset-unifying manner. Our proposed method, Nearest Neighbor Occupational Skill Extraction (NNOSE) effectively leverages multiple datasets by retrieving neighboring skills from other datasets in the datastore. This improves skill extraction without additional fine-tuning. Crucially, we observe a performance gain in predicting infrequent patterns, with substantial gains of up to 30\% span-F1 in cross-dataset settings.

Transforming complex actions into discrete skill abstractions has demonstrated strong potential for robotic manipulation. Existing approaches mainly leverage latent variable models, e.g., VQ-VAE, to learn skill abstractions through learned vectors (codebooks), while they suffer from codebook collapse and modeling the causal relationship between learned skills. To address these limitations, we present Skill Training with Augmented Rotation (STAR), a framework that advances both skill learning and composition to complete complex behaviors. Specifically, to prevent codebook collapse, we devise rotation-augmented residual skill quantization (RaRSQ). It encodes relative angles between encoder outputs into the gradient flow by rotation-based gradient mechanism. Points within the same skill code are forced to be either pushed apart or pulled closer together depending on gradient directions. Further, to capture the causal relationship between skills, we present causal skill transformer (CST) which explicitly models dependencies between skill representations through an autoregressive mechanism for coherent action generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of STAR on both LIBERO benchmark and realworld tasks, with around 12\% improvement over the baselines.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Reusable skills, which encapsulate the procedural knowledge required to solve real-world professional tasks, offer LLM-based agents a path toward self-evolution in expert domains. Existing self-evolving skill methods construct skills internally from the model's parametric knowledge or trajectories, and are therefore bounded by what the model already knows. However, the domain conventions and standard procedures underlying professional skills often lie beyond this boundary and are hard to elicit from the agent alone. To address this issue, we therefore propose a novel framework, Search2Skill, that automatically identifies the agent's capability gaps, searches external sources to address them, and distills the retrieved evidence into structured, reusable skills. Specifically, Search2Skill is optimized by a rubric-based reinforcement learning scheme that jointly improves when to search, how to search, and how to generate skills. Experiments on eight expert-level domains from three benchmarks show that Search2Skill consistently outperforms both search-augmented and trajectory-based skill-learning baselines under both streaming and held-out evaluation protocols. Further analyses show that the gains arise from skill abstraction rather than raw retrieved evidence, and that the acquired skills transfer across model scales.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

Recent LLM agents benefit from skills for solving complex tasks. Skills encapsulate modular packages of procedural knowledge and instructions for performing specialized tasks, such as setting up a sandboxed environment, running a test suite, or refactoring a function across multiple files. As skill libraries grow and become reusable across tasks and domains, selecting an appropriate skill composition has emerged as a central bottleneck. Existing approaches fall into two categories. One exposes the agent's reasoning to the entire skill collection; the other performs skill retrieval via embeddings or LLM-based rerankers. Both provide useful insights; however, they miss the structural nature of skill composition, which is a joint decision over which skills, how many, and in what order -- three dimensions that cannot be decoupled. We formalize this as structured skill composition: given a task and a skill library, predict an executable skill plan that jointly specifies the activated subset, count, and execution order. We propose SkillComposer, which instantiates structured skill composition as task-conditioned skill sequence prediction. SkillComposer uses a constrained autoregressive decoder over skill identifiers, so subset, count, and order emerge jointly from a single decoding pass, and dependencies between successive skills are captured naturally. We build a training set of task-composition pairs from a real, human-curated skill library. We then evaluate SkillComposer along two axes: composition quality on a held-out test set, and downstream task success on SkillsBench across two production-grade coding agents. On GPT-5.2-Codex, Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, SkillComposer raises the pass rate by +23.1, +18.2pp over the no-skill baseline, surpassing top-3 retrieval and matching the gold-skill retrieval upper bound at lower prompt-token cost.

Deploying LLM-powered agents in enterprise scenarios such as cloud technical support demands high-quality, domain-specific skills. However, existing skill creators lack domain grounding, producing skills poorly aligned with real-world task requirements. Moreover, once deployed, there is no systematic mechanism to trace execution failures back to skill deficiencies and drive targeted refinements, leaving skill quality stagnant despite accumulating operational evidence. We introduce SkillForge, a self-evolving framework that closes an end-to-end creation-evaluation-refinement loop. To produce well-aligned initial skills, a Domain-Contextualized Skill Creator grounds skill synthesis in knowledge bases and historical support tickets. To enable continuous self-optimization, a three-stage pipeline -- Failure Analyzer, Skill Diagnostician, and Skill Optimizer -- automatically diagnoses execution failures in batch, pinpoints the underlying skill deficiencies, and rewrites the skill to eliminate them. This cycle runs iteratively, allowing skills to self-improve with every round of deployment feedback. Evaluated on five real-world cloud support scenarios spanning 1,883 tickets and 3,737 tasks, experiments show that: (1) the Domain-Contextualized Skill Creator produces substantially better initial skills than the generic skill creator, as measured by consistency with expert-authored reference responses from historical tickets; and (2) the self-evolution loop progressively improves skill quality from diverse starting points (including expert-authored, domain-created, and generic skills) across successive rounds, demonstrating that automated evolution can surpass manually curated expert knowledge.

We study continual skill acquisition in open-ended embodied environments where an agent must construct, refine, and reuse an expanding library of executable skills. We introduce the Programmatic Skill Network (PSN), a framework in which skills are executable symbolic programs forming a compositional network that evolves through experience. PSN defines three core mechanisms instantiated via large language models: (1)REFLECT for structured fault localization over skill compositions, (2) progressive optimization with maturity-aware update gating that stabilizes reliable skills while maintaining plasticity for uncertain ones, and (3) canonical structural refactoring under rollback validation that maintains network compactness. We further show that PSN's learning dynamics exhibit structural parallels to neural network training. Experiments on MineDojo and Crafter demonstrate robust skill reuse, rapid adaptation, and strong generalization across open-ended task distributions.\footnote{We plan to open-source the code.

Self-evolving agents increasingly convert interaction histories into reusable skills that persist beyond individual tasks. While prior work studies memory and retrieval poisoning, such attacks only affect agents when poisoned records are retrieved as context. We uncover a new and more fundamental risk: poisoned experiences can be transformed by the agent itself into durable behavioral artifacts. We present SkillJack, the first attack that exploits the experience-to-skill pipeline of self-evolving agents. Instead of directly manipulating runtime context, SkillJack hijacks the agent's own learning process to implant malicious behaviors into its reusable skill repertoire. We identify three key properties of this transformation: sanitization whitewashing, where malicious intent is obscured during skill extraction; cross-layer promotion, where transient experiences become persistent capabilities; and persistence isolation, where the attack survives removal of its original source records. We evaluate SkillJack on two representative systems, SkillX and Anything2Skill, using a shared dataset of 150 trajectories across four policy-risk categories. Results show that skill extraction substantially reduces attack detectability: in SkillX, safety detection drops from 98.5\% for poisoned trajectories to 11.4\% for extracted skills, while Anything2Skill shows a similar effect. Meanwhile, the implanted skills remain effective, achieving attack success rates of 56.2\% and 89.2\% on the two systems, respectively. Furthermore, 80.0\% of skill-mediated attacks persist after deleting the original poisoned records, and some skills unintentionally activate on benign queries. Our findings reveal skill evolution as a new attack surface and motivate provenance-aware skill lifecycle protection. Our code is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AI-Infra-Guard/research/skilljack.

Large language model (LLM) agents accumulate rich episodic trajectories while solving real-world tasks, but it remains unclear whether such experience can be distilled into reusable procedural skills. We introduce SkillEvolBench, a diagnostic benchmark for evaluating this step from experience reuse to skill formation. It contains 180 tasks across six real-world agent environments, organized into role-conditioned task families with shared latent procedures. Agents learn from acquisition tasks, update an external skill library using compacted trajectories and verifier feedback, and then face frozen deployment tasks testing context shift, adversarial shortcuts, and composition. By comparing self-generated and curated-start skill evolution against no-skill and raw-trajectory controls, SkillEvolBench separates procedural abstraction from base capability, curated prior knowledge, and direct reuse of episodic traces. Across ten model configurations and three agent harnesses, we find that current agents often adapt locally but rarely form robust reusable skills. Skill-based conditions can improve acquisition or replay, and individual models sometimes gain on specific deployment axes, but these gains are unstable under frozen deployment. Raw-trajectory reuse frequently outperforms distilled skills, suggesting that current abstraction procedures discard contextual and procedural cues that remain useful for future tasks. Capacity and cost analyses further show that writing more skills or larger Tier-3 resource libraries is not sufficient: additional updates can improve coverage while introducing episode-specific drift and procedural clutter. These findings position SkillEvolBench as a testbed for measuring when one-off experience becomes durable procedural knowledge rather than task-local memory.

Agentic large language models often rely on skills, reusable natural language procedures that guide planning, action, and tool use. In practice, skills are typically improved through prompt engineering or by aligning the task LLM itself, which is costly, model-specific, and often infeasible for closed-source models. Skill optimization is not a one-step problem but a recurrent process with two coupled levels of credit assignment: a useful skill must improve rollout quality under current conditioning, while a useful revision must turn observed outcomes into a better skill for the next round. We propose Skill-R1, a reinforcement learning framework for instance-level recurrent skill optimization from verifiable rewards. Rather than updating the task LLM, Skill-R1 trains a lightweight skill generator that conditions on the task context, prior rollouts, and their verified outcomes to produce skills that steer a frozen task LLM. This preserves black-box compatibility with both open- and closed-source models while making adaptation substantially cheaper than model-level updates. Skill-R1 proceeds over multiple generations: at each step, the current skill induces rollouts whose verified outcomes are fed back to produce the next revision. To optimize this recurrent process, we introduce a bi-level group-relative policy optimization objective combining intra-generation and inter-generation advantages. The intra-generation term compares rollouts under shared skill conditioning, while the inter-generation term rewards revisions that improve behavior across successive generations. Together, these provide a principled objective for directional skill evolution rather than one-shot self-refinement. Empirically, Skill-R1 achieves consistent gains over no-skill baselines and standard GRPO across benchmarks with verifiable rewards, with particularly strong improvements on complex, multi-step tasks.

Learning skills in open-world environments is essential for developing agents capable of handling a variety of tasks by combining basic skills. Online demonstration videos are typically long but unsegmented, making them difficult to segment and label with skill identifiers. Unlike existing methods that rely on sequence sampling or human labeling, we have developed a self-supervised learning-based approach to segment these long videos into a series of semantic-aware and skill-consistent segments. Drawing inspiration from human cognitive event segmentation theory, we introduce Skill Boundary Detection (SBD), an annotation-free temporal video segmentation algorithm. SBD detects skill boundaries in a video by leveraging prediction errors from a pretrained unconditional action-prediction model. This approach is based on the assumption that a significant increase in prediction error indicates a shift in the skill being executed. We evaluated our method in Minecraft, a rich open-world simulator with extensive gameplay videos available online. Our SBD-generated segments improved the average performance of conditioned policies by 63.7% and 52.1% on short-term atomic skill tasks, and their corresponding hierarchical agents by 11.3% and 20.8% on long-horizon tasks. Our method can leverage the diverse YouTube videos to train instruction-following agents. The project page can be found in https://craftjarvis.github.io/SkillDiscovery.

Agent skills, which consist of reusable strategies that guide agent reasoning and action, have shown strong potential for improving model capability at inference time. However, current skill construction methods treat the problem as one-shot extraction, overlooking a fundamental tension: a skill tailored to the specific task fails to transfer, while the abstracted skill often provides insufficient guidance. We attribute this fragility to the absence of explicit mechanisms for skill specification and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce SkillComposer, a framework that decomposes skill construction into three learnable operations: create, improve, and merge. Trained via systematic rejection sampling recipe, SkillComposer enables language models to self-evolve skills at inference time and supports three deployment modes: offline for building generalized libraries, online for task-specific refinement, and hybrid for combining both. Comprehensive experiments on τ^2-Bench, LiveCodeBench v6, and AppWorld show that SkillComposer consistently outperforms baselines. Our SkillComposer-4B improves a 27B executor by up to +4.5 on agent tasks and +3.4 on code tasks, while generalizing across domains and task types unseen during training. Analysis reveals that merge and improve address orthogonal quality dimensions and that skill composition is a transferable meta-ability, providing a practical recipe for skill-augmented inference.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

This study investigates the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting human-perceived misery scores from natural language descriptions of real-world scenarios. The task is framed as a regression problem, where the model assigns a scalar value from 0 to 100 to each input statement. We evaluate multiple prompting strategies, including zero-shot, fixed-context few-shot, and retrieval-based prompting using BERT sentence embeddings. Few-shot approaches consistently outperform zero-shot baselines, underscoring the value of contextual examples in affective prediction. To move beyond static evaluation, we introduce the "Misery Game Show", a novel gamified framework inspired by a television format. It tests LLMs through structured rounds involving ordinal comparison, binary classification, scalar estimation, and feedback-driven reasoning. This setup enables us to assess not only predictive accuracy but also the model's ability to adapt based on corrective feedback. The gamified evaluation highlights the broader potential of LLMs in dynamic emotional reasoning tasks beyond standard regression. Code and data link: https://github.com/abhi1nandy2/Misery_Data_Exps_GitHub

A core goal of computational social science is to discover interpretable differences in how language varies across outcomes of interest, such as political affiliation or instructional quality. Recent LLM-based hypothesis generation methods describe such differences in natural language, but select for globally discriminative patterns without accounting for covariates that shape the data based on researchers' domain knowledge. When covariates are ignored, selected patterns can reflect confounds rather than differences of substantive interest. We introduce conditional hypothesis generation, a framework that incorporates researcher-specified covariates to steer hypothesis discovery toward differences that hold within relevant subgroups. Two challenges arise: the target subgroup may be underrepresented (stratum imbalance), and the direction of a difference may reverse across subgroups (sign reversal). We propose two econometrics-inspired methods: one introduces feature--covariate interactions to detect sign reversals, and the other applies within-stratum demeaning and inverse-frequency reweighting to equalize underrepresented strata. Synthetic experiments show each method outperforms global baselines in its targeted setting, and expert evaluation on two real-world datasets confirms that covariate-aware generation surfaces more useful hypotheses within relevant subgroups.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Scaling laws are a critical component of the LLM development pipeline, most famously as a way to forecast training decisions such as 'compute-optimally' trading-off parameter count and dataset size, alongside a more recent growing list of other crucial decisions. In this work, we ask whether compute-optimal scaling behaviour can be skill-dependent. In particular, we examine knowledge and reasoning-based skills such as knowledge-based QA and code generation, and we answer this question in the affirmative: scaling laws are skill-dependent. Next, to understand whether skill-dependent scaling is an artefact of the pretraining datamix, we conduct an extensive ablation of different datamixes and find that, also when correcting for datamix differences, knowledge and code exhibit fundamental differences in scaling behaviour. We conclude with an analysis of how our findings relate to standard compute-optimal scaling using a validation set, and find that a misspecified validation set can impact compute-optimal parameter count by nearly 50%, depending on its skill composition.

We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm trained via contrastive learning and LLM-driven data augmentation, we map vacancy requirements to the ESCO framework. By benchmarking occupation-skill relationships against 2018 O*NET-ESCO mappings, we document a robust causal relationship between AI adoption and the expansion of skill portfolios. Our analysis identifies two distinct mechanisms. First, AI reduces information asymmetry in the labor market, enabling firms to specify current occupation-specific requirements with greater precision. Second, AI empowers firms to anticipate evolving labor market dynamics. We find that AI adoption significantly increases the demand for "forward-looking" skills--those absent from 2018 standards but subsequently codified in 2022 updates. This suggests that AI allows firms to lead, rather than follow, the formal evolution of occupational standards. Our findings highlight AI's dual role as both a stabilizer of current recruitment information and a catalyst for proactive adaptation to future skill shifts.

Large language model agents often encounter related yet distinct tasks that share reusable solution patterns. Yet standard agentic reinforcement learning treats tasks as independent episodes, while existing approaches to skill learning either focus on repeated attempts of one task or use pipelines with multiple stages that entangle extraction, retrieval, and execution. We introduce SkillRise, a unified reinforcement learning framework for learning skills across tasks. SkillRise organizes related instances into progressively challenging sequences and uses a single policy to alternate between task solving and curating an evolving skill document passed directly to the next task. Decoupled credit assignment across tasks supervises solving with the current task outcome and curation with discounted downstream outcomes. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld show that SkillRise achieves the strongest Pass@1 performance among the compared methods, with gains over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.3 to 8.5 percentage points. Although trained across distinct tasks, its learned curation policy remains effective for repeated attempts on the same task. Further analysis reveals scaling at test time across tasks: performance improves with longer sequences of related tasks even when each task is attempted only once. This trend suggests that SkillRise reuses transferable skills across tasks rather than benefiting from repeated sampling of the same task. SkillRise further retains strong performance while substantially reducing the runtime overhead of skill learning pipelines with multiple stages. Together, these results provide a simple and efficient training paradigm for LLM agents to extract, refine, and reuse transferable skills across tasks.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Skill-based prompting has become a practical mechanism for improving large language model (LLM) agents, yet existing skill acquisition methods often treat skills as experience summaries, memory entries, or direct summaries of successful demonstrations. This creates a mismatch for weaker student agents: when a student fails because it lacks task knowledge or operational strategy, its failed trajectory may not contain enough evidence to infer the missing behavior, while the teacher trajectory may be too implicit to be internalized as reusable guidance. We propose SKILL-KD, a contrastive skill distillation framework that treats skills as an explicit distillation medium between agents of different capabilities. Given a student failure and the teacher trajectory on the same task, SKILL-KD distills their actionable discrepancy into a textual skill patch, evaluates the patch by re-running the student, and iteratively refines the patch when the student still fails. To prevent repeated local updates from causing skill drift, SKILL-KD further maintains trace-linked edit histories and performs Drift-Aware Skill Consolidation, deciding whether each patch should add a new rule, delete or modify an existing rule, or be skipped. Across five agent benchmarks and two student settings, SKILL-KD consistently improves frozen student agents over fixed-model adaptation baselines.

Skills play a central role in the job market and many human resources (HR) processes. In the wake of other digital experiences, today's online job market has candidates expecting to see the right opportunities based on their skill set. Similarly, enterprises increasingly need to use data to guarantee that the skills within their workforce remain future-proof. However, structured information about skills is often missing, and processes building on self- or manager-assessment have shown to struggle with issues around adoption, completeness, and freshness of the resulting data. Extracting skills is a highly challenging task, given the many thousands of possible skill labels mentioned either explicitly or merely described implicitly and the lack of finely annotated training corpora. Previous work on skill extraction overly simplifies the task to an explicit entity detection task or builds on manually annotated training data that would be infeasible if applied to a complete vocabulary of skills. We propose an end-to-end system for skill extraction, based on distant supervision through literal matching. We propose and evaluate several negative sampling strategies, tuned on a small validation dataset, to improve the generalization of skill extraction towards implicitly mentioned skills, despite the lack of such implicit skills in the distantly supervised data. We observe that using the ESCO taxonomy to select negative examples from related skills yields the biggest improvements, and combining three different strategies in one model further increases the performance, up to 8 percentage points in RP@5. We introduce a manually annotated evaluation benchmark for skill extraction based on the ESCO taxonomy, on which we validate our models. We release the benchmark dataset for research purposes to stimulate further research on the task.

Agent Skills are structured packages of procedural knowledge that augment LLM agents at inference time. Despite rapid adoption, there is no standard way to measure whether they actually help. We present SkillsBench, a benchmark of 86 tasks across 11 domains paired with curated Skills and deterministic verifiers. Each task is evaluated under three conditions: no Skills, curated Skills, and self-generated Skills. We test 7 agent-model configurations over 7,308 trajectories. Curated Skills raise average pass rate by 16.2 percentage points(pp), but effects vary widely by domain (+4.5pp for Software Engineering to +51.9pp for Healthcare) and 16 of 84 tasks show negative deltas. Self-generated Skills provide no benefit on average, showing that models cannot reliably author the procedural knowledge they benefit from consuming. Focused Skills with 2--3 modules outperform comprehensive documentation, and smaller models with Skills can match larger models without them.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

LLM agents acting in structured environments fail in operational rather than conversational ways, and reliability depends on procedural knowledge of the environment. Prior self-improvement methods accumulate natural-language guidance without checking that each new item preserves previously correct behavior, so a note that fixes one trajectory can silently regress another. We introduce GRASP (Gated Regression-Aware Skill Proposer), which treats agent improvement as a sequence of edits to a bounded skill library, admitting each candidate only if it produces a net improvement on a balanced held-out probe under a hard regression budget. We evaluate GRASP across five base models (gpt-oss-120b, DeepSeek V4 Flash, Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite, GPT-4.1, GPT-5.4) on two FHIR-based clinical benchmarks. On MedAgentBench, GRASP lifts gpt-oss-120b from 40.6% to 88.8%, exceeds the strongest of five self-improvement baselines by 21.0 points, and improves every other base model by 17.2 to 40.3 points. Ablations attribute the gain to comparative proposal generation, the acceptance gate, and the hard regression budget rather than to skill writing itself, which without validation is no better than using no skills. The mechanism generalizes beyond the clinical domain, improving agents on three of four non-clinical environments and remaining flat only where the action space is open-ended. Frozen libraries transfer across models, where skills from a stronger model improve weaker executors beyond what they learn for themselves while the reverse does not, an asymmetry that no ungated baseline reproduces.

Skills are a natural unit for describing what a language model can do and how its behavior can be changed. However, existing characterizations rely on human-written taxonomies, textual descriptions, or manual profiling pipelines--all external hypotheses about what matters that need not align with the model's internal representations. We argue that when the goal is to intervene on model behavior, skill characterization should be *model-native*: grounded in the model's own representations rather than imposed through external ontologies. We instantiate this view by recovering a compact orthogonal basis from sequence-level activations. The resulting basis is semantically interpretable but need not correspond to any predefined human ontology; instead, it captures axes of behavioral variation that the model itself organizes around. We validate this characterization on reasoning post-training, using the recovered basis for both SFT data selection and inference-time steering. We develop lightweight proxy interventions to identify which directions are most useful for a given model. Across Llama3-8B and Qwen2.5-3B, selecting data along those directions improves Pass@1 by up to 20% on MATH and 41% on AMC, outperforming data selection based on human-characterized skills. Because the basis lives in activation space, the same directions also serve as steering vectors at inference time, improving Pass@8 by up to 4.8% on MATH--an intervention that human-characterized skills cannot support. We further validate the characterization on safety alignment, where selecting adversarial training data for model-native skill coverage rather than textual diversity yields more sample-efficient learning. These results suggest that recovering skills from the model's own representations, rather than imposing them externally, provides a more effective foundation for intervening on model behavior. Codes are open-sourced.

Agents increasingly rely on reusable skills to encode task knowledge, tool-use procedures, and validation rules. Existing skill self-evolution methods primarily revise skills using execution trajectories collected from current tasks, leaving the evolution knowledge accumulated in public skill version histories largely untapped. Our pilot study reveals a clear complementarity between the two sources: public skill changes provide reusable evolution priors, whereas trajectories provide evidence grounded in the current task. Motivated by this, we propose VCE-Skill, which distills noisy and implementation-specific public skill changes into reusable, structured version-change experience and adaptively fuses it with trajectory-derived proposals from the base evolver, thereby exploiting external experience while retaining task-specific evidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VCE-Skill improves skill self-evolution, increasing mean scores by 3.20--4.98 points; transfer experiments further show that the resulting skills achieve stronger cross-model transfer performance. Our work highlights public skill version changes as a previously underexplored yet effective source of prior knowledge and advances trajectory-driven skill self-evolution.

LLM agents increasingly retrieve externally curated skills-procedural instructions retrieved at decision time-to improve performance on long-horizon interactive tasks. Existing skill libraries are typically treated as model-agnostic, reusing the same skill formulations across backbones with substantially different capacities and behaviors. However, our controlled experiments across multiple model scales show that skill effectiveness is strongly model-dependent: a skill that benefits one backbone can harm another. Motivated by this observation, we propose MASA Model-Aware Skill Alignment, a framework that adapts skills to each target backbone without modifying agent weights. MASA operates in two stages: (1) a hierarchical skill evolution pipeline that iteratively rewrites general and task-specific skills using hill climbing and UCB-driven tree search, guided by environment feedback and model capability profiles; and (2) a lightweight model-conditioned skill rewriter trained on evolution trajectories to reproduce the adaptation in a single forward pass. Experiments across three interactive environments and four backbones show that MASA consistently achieves the best overall performance, with gains of up to 25.8 points over the strongest baseline. The learned rewriter further generalizes to unseen tasks and environments without additional search, consistently outperforming a much larger teacher LLM at a fraction of the inference cost.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Skill extraction and recommendation systems have been studied from recruiter, applicant, and education perspectives. While AI applications in job advertisements have received broad attention, deficiencies in the instructed skills side remain a challenge. In this work, we address the scarcity of publicly available datasets by releasing both manually annotated and synthetic datasets of skills from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy and university course pairs and publishing corresponding annotation guidelines. Specifically, we match graduate-level university courses with skills from the Systems Analysts and Management and Organization Analyst ESCO occupation groups at two granularities: course title with a skill, and course sentence with a skill. We train language models on this dataset to serve as a baseline for retrieval and recommendation systems for course-to-skill and skill-to-course matching. We evaluate the models on a portion of the annotated data. Our BERT model achieves 87% F1-score, showing that course and skill matching is a feasible task.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Accurately modeling the relationships between skills is a crucial part of human resources processes such as recruitment and employee development. Yet, no benchmarks exist to evaluate such methods directly. We construct and release SkillMatch, a benchmark for the task of skill relatedness, based on expert knowledge mining from millions of job ads. Additionally, we propose a scalable self-supervised learning technique to adapt a Sentence-BERT model based on skill co-occurrence in job ads. This new method greatly surpasses traditional models for skill relatedness as measured on SkillMatch. By releasing SkillMatch publicly, we aim to contribute a foundation for research towards increased accuracy and transparency of skill-based recommendation systems.

Self-evolving skill systems promise to improve agents by turning execution feedback into persistent skill updates without changing the underlying model. Yet it remains unclear when further evolution helps, how successful and failed trajectories shape revision, and whether extra test-time computation can recover the same gains. To address these questions, we present a controlled evaluation framework across five benchmarks and three models. Our primary study contains 42 feedback runs across 14 supported model-benchmark settings. Within each setting, we hold the executor and optimizer configuration, revision procedure, validation rule, and round budget fixed, while varying only the feedback shown to the optimizer: successes and failures (Normal), failures only, or successes only. Evolution is sparse: only 55 of 388 candidates establish byte-distinct validation bests. Validation-based selection chooses an evolved skill in 11 of 14 settings, nine of which improve released-test performance. All 11 selections come from feedback conditions that include failed trajectories, although the relative ranking of Normal and Fail-only varies across settings. Validation and downstream evaluations on test, robustness, and transfer sometimes favor different feedback views. A broader SearchQA analysis covering eight models shows similarly sparse, feedback-dependent dynamics. In the GPT-5.5 test-time-scaling controls, oracle Parallel Sampling comes within 0.43 points of the evolved SearchQA skill but remains 30.96 points behind on SpreadsheetBench; Sequential Refinement recovers neither gain. Overall, persistent skill self-evolution is better understood as sparse, validation-filtered search with model- and benchmark-dependent returns, rather than steady improvement from additional rounds. The implementation is available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/rethinkskill.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Teaching language models to use search tools is not only a question of whether they search, but also of whether they issue good queries. This is especially important in open-domain question answering, where broad or copied queries often waste retrieval budget and derail later reasoning. We propose \Ours, a framework that makes query planning explicit through reusable search skills. At each step, the model first selects a skill, then generates a search or answer action conditioned on the selected skill card. The skill inventory itself is not fixed: SearchSkill maintains an evolving SkillBank, expands or refines it from recurrent failure patterns, and reconstructs affected trajectories before supervised training. The resulting two-stage SFT recipe aligns training with the inference-time protocol of skill selection followed by skill-grounded execution. Across open-source and closed-source models, SearchSkill improves exact match on knowledge-intensive QA benchmarks and yields better retrieval behavior, including fewer copied first queries, more atomic hop-focused queries, and more correct answers within a small search budget. These results suggest that explicit skill-conditioned query planning is a lightweight alternative to treating search as an undifferentiated action.

Agent skills are reusable procedural artifacts that extend language agents with specialized workflows, tool conventions, and domain behaviors at inference time. However, creating reliable skills still depends largely on human authorship, model priors, or execution traces. These sources are often unavailable for unfamiliar tasks, suggesting the need to create skills from open-world materials. In this paper, we study open-world skill creation: given an underspecified skill brief and a source-access specification, a creator must discover behavior-relevant requirements omitted by the brief and determine how broadly each source-derived procedure is justified. We propose SkillAlchemy, an admission-centered framework for source-grounded skill creation. SkillAlchemy identifies implicit requirements through contrastive evidence, admits candidate procedures based on evidence-supported scope, and compiles the admitted content into a grammar-guided skill package. Extensive experiments across 87 SkillsBench v1.1 tasks demonstrate that SkillAlchemy improves pass rate over no-skill execution by 19.9 percentage points and the strongest automated baseline by 8.6 percentage points, while achieving performance comparable to human-curated skills.

Equipping Large Language Model (LLM) agents with domain-specific skills is critical for tackling complex tasks. Yet, manual authoring creates a severe scalability bottleneck. Conversely, automated skill generation often yields fragile or fragmented results because it either relies on shallow parametric knowledge or sequentially overfits to non-generalizable trajectory-local lessons. To overcome this, we introduce Trace2Skill, a framework that mirrors how human experts author skills: by holistically analyzing broad execution experience before distilling it into a single, comprehensive guide. Instead of reacting sequentially to individual trajectories, Trace2Skill dispatches a parallel fleet of sub-agents to analyze a diverse pool of executions. It extracts trajectory-specific lessons and hierarchically consolidates them into a unified, conflict-free skill directory via inductive reasoning. Trace2Skill supports both deepening existing human-written skills and creating new ones from scratch. Experiments in challenging domains, such as spreadsheet, VisionQA and math reasoning, show that Trace2Skill significantly improves upon strong baselines, including Anthropic's official xlsx skills. Crucially, this trajectory-grounded evolution does not merely memorize task instances or model-specific quirks: evolved skills transfer across LLM scales and generalize to OOD settings. For example, skills evolved by Qwen3.5-35B on its own trajectories improved a Qwen3.5-122B agent by up to 57.65 absolute percentage points on WikiTableQuestions. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that complex agent experience can be packaged into highly transferable, declarative skills -- requiring no parameter updates, no external retrieval modules, and utilizing open-source models as small as 35B parameters.

Agent skills are procedural artifacts that enable LLM agents to execute workflows, verify constraints, and recover from failures. Existing self-evolving methods refine skills using accumulated trajectories. However, they struggle in cold-start settings, where only an initial, imperfect skill is available. Consequently, skill construction defaults to expert authoring or one-shot LLM generation. Expert-authored skills are costly and may not align with how LLM agents actually execute tasks, while one-shot generated skills can be syntactically well formed yet behaviorally weak. To bridge this gap, we propose SkillRevise, an execution-grounded framework designed to iteratively refine these initial skills. SkillRevise diagnoses skill defects from execution evidence, retrieves relevant repair principles from a general memory, and applies execution-anchored edits. By re-executing candidates and measuring empirical utility, it systematically retains the optimal skill version. Evaluated across three benchmarks and five LLMs, SkillRevise substantially outperforms one-shot baselines, improving the base agent's success rate on SkillsBench from 36.05% to 61.63%. Furthermore, the revised skills exhibit strong cross-model transferability, capturing generalized procedural knowledge over model-specific artifacts.

Does RL teach LLMs genuinely new skills, or does it merely activate existing ones? This question lies at the core of ongoing debates about the role of RL in LLM post-training. On one side, strong empirical results can be achieved with RL even without preceding supervised finetuning; on the other, critics argue that RL contributes little beyond reweighting existing reasoning strategies. This work provides concrete evidence that LLMs can acquire genuinely new skills during RL by composing existing ones, mirroring one of the central mechanisms by which humans acquire new cognitive skills. To mitigate data contamination and other confounding factors, and to allow precise control over task complexity, we develop a synthetic framework for our investigation. Specifically, we define a skill as the ability to infer the output of a string transformation function f(x) given x. When an LLM has already learned f and g prior to RL, our experiments reveal that RL enables it to learn unseen compositions of them h(x)=g(f(x)). Further, this compositional ability generalizes to more difficult problems such as compositions of >2 functions unseen during RL training. Surprisingly, our experiments show that compositional skill acquired on a source task transfers to a different target task. This transfer happens even without compositional training on the target, requiring only prior knowledge of the target's atomic skills. Our qualitative analysis shows that RL fundamentally changes the reasoning behaviors of the models. In contrast, next-token training with the same data yields none of these findings. Our systematic experiments provide fresh insights into LLM learning, suggesting the value of first building base models with basic skills, then using RL to incentivize advanced, generalizable skills for complex problems.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Computer-Use Agents (CUAs) are increasingly deployed in dynamic interactive environments, creating a growing need for continual skill learning during interaction. Recent approaches address this challenge by learning reusable skills from successful trajectories. However, these skill learning methods largely assume static and safe environments, overlooking risks from adversarial interactions (e.g., prompt injections) and environmental dynamics (e.g., pop-ups). In dynamic settings, such assumptions can lead to risky skill learning and brittle execution, undermining the reliability of CUAs. This raises the question: how can CUAs learn and use skills safely in dynamic environments? To address this problem, we propose SkillHarness, a framework for safe skill harnessing in dynamic environments. SkillHarness moves beyond static skill abstractions by modeling skill learning and utilization as a safety-constrained interaction process. Specifically, we introduce the skill boundary that leverages multi-source supervision signals to identify safe skills from interaction trajectories, and construct self-improving safety constraints throughout the skill lifecycle. In addition, SkillHarness introduces selective skill reuse, where tasks are guided to decompose according to context and completed through the selective activation of skill subsets. Our experiments demonstrate that SkillHarness significantly reduces the unsafe rate of learned skills by 57.1% and consistently improves execution stability under dynamic environmental changes, outperforming existing baselines.

As LLM agents are increasingly built around reusable skills, a central challenge is no longer only whether agents can use provided skills, but whether they can generate correct, reusable, and executable skills from repositories and documents. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate the efficacy of given skills or the ability of agents to solve downstream tasks from raw context, but they do not isolate skill generation itself as the object of study. We introduce SkillGenBench, a benchmark for evaluating skill generation pipelines under a unified and controlled protocol. In SkillGenBench, a generator receives raw corpora and produces standardized skill artifacts, which are then executed under fixed harnesses and assessed with unified evaluation procedures. The benchmark covers two generation regimes: task-conditioned generation, where a task-specific skill is synthesized after the task is revealed, and task-agnostic generation, where a reusable skill library must be distilled before downstream tasks are known. It also spans two complementary procedural sources: repository-grounded instances, where procedures are distributed across code, configuration, and scripts, and document-grounded instances, where procedures and constraints must be distilled from long-form text. We provide standardized task specifications, pinned environments, and evaluation protocols centered on deterministic execution-based checks, supplemented by auxiliary signals for diagnosis. Experiments across a range of skill-generation methods and backbones show substantial performance variation, highlight the difficulty of reusable skill distillation, and reveal distinct failure modes in skill generation from software repositories versus long-form documents. SkillGenBench establishes a reproducible testbed for studying skill generation as an independent research problem in agent systems.

Self-supervised skill learning aims to acquire useful behaviors that leverage the underlying dynamics of the environment. Latent variable models, based on mutual information maximization, have been successful in this task but still struggle in the context of robotic manipulation. As it requires impacting a possibly large set of degrees of freedom composing the environment, mutual information maximization fails alone in producing useful and safe manipulation behaviors. Furthermore, tackling this by augmenting skill discovery rewards with additional rewards through a naive combination might fail to produce desired behaviors. To address this limitation, we introduce SLIM, a multi-critic learning approach for skill discovery with a particular focus on robotic manipulation. Our main insight is that utilizing multiple critics in an actor-critic framework to gracefully combine multiple reward functions leads to a significant improvement in latent-variable skill discovery for robotic manipulation while overcoming possible interference occurring among rewards which hinders convergence to useful skills. Furthermore, in the context of tabletop manipulation, we demonstrate the applicability of our novel skill discovery approach to acquire safe and efficient motor primitives in a hierarchical reinforcement learning fashion and leverage them through planning, significantly surpassing baseline approaches for skill discovery.

Modern LLMs show mastery over an ever-growing range of skills, as well as the ability to compose them flexibly. However, extending model capabilities to new skills in a scalable manner is an open-problem: fine-tuning and parameter-efficient variants risk catastrophic forgetting, while context-based approaches have limited expressiveness and are constrained by the model's effective context. We explore skill neologisms--i.e., soft tokens integrated in the model's vocabulary and optimized to improve capabilities over a specific skill--as a way to selectively extend model capabilities to new skills without weight updates. We first observe that off-the-shelf pre-trained LLMs already demonstrate tokens associated with procedural knowledge. We then show that skill neologisms can be learned to improve model capabilities on specific skills while being composable with out-of-distribution skills, and that independently trained skill neologisms can be composed zero-shot. These results suggest that skill neologisms may provide a scalable path towards skill-based continual learning.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

The origin of adversarial examples is still inexplicable in research fields, and it arouses arguments from various viewpoints, albeit comprehensive investigations. In this paper, we propose a way of delving into the unexpected vulnerability in adversarially trained networks from a causal perspective, namely adversarial instrumental variable (IV) regression. By deploying it, we estimate the causal relation of adversarial prediction under an unbiased environment dissociated from unknown confounders. Our approach aims to demystify inherent causal features on adversarial examples by leveraging a zero-sum optimization game between a casual feature estimator (i.e., hypothesis model) and worst-case counterfactuals (i.e., test function) disturbing to find causal features. Through extensive analyses, we demonstrate that the estimated causal features are highly related to the correct prediction for adversarial robustness, and the counterfactuals exhibit extreme features significantly deviating from the correct prediction. In addition, we present how to effectively inoculate CAusal FEatures (CAFE) into defense networks for improving adversarial robustness.

Modern agent frameworks equip large language models with external skill libraries to solve complex tasks. However, it remains unclear whether these systems can effectively evolve their skills and whether the resulting skills improve task-solving capabilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce ContinualSkillBench, a dynamic evaluation framework for in-context continual skill learning. It covers five representative domains, each containing 100 interconnected subtasks ordered by increasing difficulty and opportunities for cross-task skill reuse. Our experiments show that sequential execution generally improves performance, but the gains vary substantially across models and domains. Moreover, in-context learning performs comparably to explicit skill maintenance on average, suggesting that much of the improvement arises from adaptation to prior context and feedback rather than reusable skill abstraction alone. Explicit skills nevertheless provide selective benefits for tasks requiring reusable procedures or precise outputs. We further find that less capable models tend to accumulate larger, more fragmented collections of task-specific skills. These findings show that current in-context skill evolution mechanisms can support continual adaptation, but still struggle to consistently consolidate experience into robust and transferable skills.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Skill self-evolution methods for LLM agents aim to turn execution trajectories into reusable skill documents. However, current pipelines typically derive skill patches from a single trajectory per task, merge them indiscriminately, and load the entire skill corpus during inference. These choices lead to unreliable evidence extraction, the accumulation of low-quality or even harmful skill edits, and inefficient use of context due to irrelevant or conflicting skill content. We propose SkillCAT, a framework that decomposes this process into three stages. (1) Contrastive Causal Extraction (CCE) samples multiple trajectories per task and contrasts same-task success/failure pairs to find the evidence that explains outcome differences. (2) Assessment-Augmented Evolution (AAE) replays each candidate patch on source-task clones, retains only those that do not damage task outcomes, and then merges the retained patches hierarchically. (3) Topology-Aware Task Execution (TTE) compiles the evolved skills into routable sub-skill topologies, so that inference loads only task-relevant capability nodes. We evaluate SkillCAT on widely-used agent benchmarks, including SpreadsheetBench, WikiTableQuestions, and DocVQA, and further assess cross-model and out-of-distribution generalization. Across these settings, SkillCAT improves the average score over the initial skill by up to 49.69%, demonstrating reliable and effective skill evolution.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Large Language Models (LLMs) solely trained on next-token prediction learn to solve a wide range of problems involving mathematical reasoning. But how does this ability evolve during training? We show the first analysis of how mathematical reasoning abilities of several open-weight LLMs develop during pre-training and post-training. To this end, we construct MathCAMPS, a synthetic dataset of novel mathematical reasoning problems grounded in 44 fine-grained skills taken from the Common Core curriculum from K to 8th grades. In one experiment, we show that mathematical skills are learned during pre-training in an order that measurably correlates with the human-designed curriculum, even though training data are randomly ordered. We also show a detailed analysis of which mathematical abilities benefit from instruction tuning, a widely used post-training method and, in contrast, which skills suffer. Our work paves the way for an empirical understanding of LLM training dynamics in relation to reasoning.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

LLM training is shifting from manual design and annotation to interaction-driven self-evolution. However, existing self-evolutionary methods face a fundamental dilemma between task diversity and verification reliability: environment-bound methods obtain precise feedback but confine learning to narrow domains, while open-ended self-generation broadens the task space but lacks reliable verification, allowing misleading rewards to pollute the training loop. We identify agent skills as a powerful middle ground to reconcile this tension: each skill ensures deep, verifiable execution in a specific scenario, while dynamic routing across skills maintains open-ended task variety. Leveraging this insight, we introduce Skill Self-Play (Skill-SP), a co-evolutionary framework comprising a proposer, a solver, and a dynamic skill controller. Orchestrated via a reinforcement learning loop, these components co-evolve in a continuous self-play loop: the proposer generates challenging tasks conditioned on dynamically sampled skills; the solver explores candidate solutions to push its capability boundaries; and the skill controller collects execution feedback to update and expand the skill library. This interactive co-evolution effectively bridges the gap between structured verification and open-ended exploration. Empirical evaluations on tool-use and reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that Skill-SP, serving as a robust evolution engine, consistently pushes the performance ceiling of competent backbones while catalyzing striking turnarounds for initially misaligned models. Our code is available at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/skill-self-play.

Agent skills package specialized knowledge and workflows into reusable resources that extend AI agent capabilities. Recent work automatically discovers such skills from agent experience, which enables agents to progressively adapt through interaction. However, the insights that guide skill development typically remain scattered across optimization histories, limiting their systematic reuse across iterations. We introduce WikiSkill, a framework that co-evolves agent skills with a persistent knowledge base (wiki). At a high level, WikiSkill separates raw execution experience, accumulated knowledge, and executable skills, while continuously consolidating experience into the wiki, which subsequent skill updates can build on. Across diverse benchmarks and models, WikiSkill consistently outperforms state-of-the-art skill-evolution methods and improves over no-skill baselines in most model-benchmark settings. We find that skill evolution complements model scaling: larger models generally benefit more from evolved skills, while smaller models with skills can outperform substantially larger models without them. We also find that evolved skills transfer effectively across models and model families, and skills evolved by other models can outperform self-evolved skills. Finally, our ablation studies confirm that persistent knowledge accumulation in the wiki is critical for effective skill evolution. These results demonstrate the benefits of systematically accumulating and refining agent experience for developing reusable and transferable skills.

Automated skill evolution enables Large Language Model (LLM) agents to continuously improve without expensive retraining. However, existing approaches typically treat skill evolution as a sequence of local updates, overlooking relationships among skills and often producing overfitted skill updates that fail to generalize across tasks. We propose GSE, a globalized skill evolution framework that jointly optimizes skill compatibility and skill generalization. To preserve consistency across the skill bank, GSE maintains a Skill Relation Graph (SRG) that explicitly models and co-evolves inter-skill relationships. To improve generalization, GSE performs cluster-based skill consolidation to abstract reusable capabilities from local updates and employs replay-driven verification to prevent overfitting and behavioral regressions. We evaluate GSE on two representative software engineering tasks: bug-revealing test generation and false-positive bug report filtering. Across two state-of-the-art coding agents, OpenHands and mini-SWE-agent, GSE consistently achieves the best precision, recall, and F1-score. Compared with existing evolution techniques, GSE improves precision and recall by 6.1%~34.1% and 31.8%~180.0% for test generation, and by 15.4%~96.4% and 13.1%~19.8% for false-positive filtering. Deployment on an internal industrial agent further yields a 61.4% improvement in F1-score, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of GSE for evolving effective skills.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Agent skills, structured packages of procedural knowledge and executable resources that agents dynamically load at inference time, have become a reliable mechanism for augmenting LLM agents. Yet inference-time skill augmentation is fundamentally limited: retrieval noise introduces irrelevant guidance, injected skill content imposes substantial token overhead, and the model never truly acquires the knowledge it merely follows. We ask whether skills can instead be internalized into model parameters, enabling zero-shot autonomous behavior without any runtime skill retrieval. We introduce SKILL0, an in-context reinforcement learning framework designed for skill internalization. SKILL0 introduces a training-time curriculum that begins with full skill context and progressively withdraws it. Skills are grouped offline by category and rendered with interaction history into a compact visual context, teaching he model tool invocation and multi-turn task completion. A Dynamic Curriculum then evaluates each skill file's on-policy helpfulness, retaining only those from which the current policy still benefits within a linearly decaying budget, until the agent operates in a fully zero-shot setting. Extensive agentic experiments demonstrate that SKILL0 achieves substantial improvements over the standard RL baseline (+9.7\% for ALFWorld and +6.6\% for Search-QA), while maintaining a highly efficient context of fewer than 0.5k tokens per step. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/SkillZero.

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

Agent Skills augment large language model (LLM) agents with procedural knowledge at inference time, but current benchmarks rarely distinguish what a Skill says from how it is organized. We study this distinction through Progressive Disclosure, where a concise root file points agents to supporting resources on demand, and compare it with a normalized flat baseline. We present SkillJuror, a framework for evaluating Skill writing paradigms through semantically controlled variants, matched multi-trial evaluations, and trajectory evidence while holding task knowledge fixed. In an 82-task SkillsBench study, Progressive Disclosure changes runtime behavior before aggregate outcomes: distinct Skill resources touched per trajectory rise from 1.18 to 3.85, and effective uptake events rise from 1.33 to 3.92. It also yields 17 additional verifier-passing trials out of 410 matched trials (+4.1%) over the normalized flat baseline. The benefit is task-dependent. Progressive Disclosure helps when supporting resources guide implementation, checking, or repair, but is weaker when success hinges on exact output conventions, numerical thresholds, or long artifact-generation pipelines. These results show that Skill organization is not mere presentation: it can change how agents search and apply procedural knowledge, while outcome gains depend on whether the exposed resources are actionable for the task. Code is available at https://github.com/zhiyuchen-ai/skill-juror.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

A persistent skill library allows language model agents to reuse successful strategies across tasks. Maintaining such a library requires three coupled capabilities. The agent selects a relevant skill, utilizes it during execution, and distills new skills from experience. Existing methods optimize these capabilities in isolation or with separate reward sources, resulting in partial and conflicting evolution. We propose Skill1, a framework that trains a single policy to co-evolve skill selection, utilization, and distillation toward a shared task-outcome objective. The policy generates a query to search the skill library, re-ranks candidates to select one, solves the task conditioned on it, and distills a new skill from the trajectory. All learning derives from a single task-outcome signal. Its low-frequency trend credits selection and its high-frequency variation credits distillation. Experiments on ALFWorld and WebShop show that Skill1 outperforms prior skill-based and reinforcement learning baselines. Training dynamics confirm the co-evolution of the three capabilities, and ablations show that removing any credit signal degrades the evolution.

Agentic (tool-using) language models are mainly trained on tool-call traces and agent trajectories during post-training. These data provide direct behavioral supervision, but producing them requires task environments, execution, and verification, making broad tool and task coverage expensive. Publicly available skills offer another source of training data: they encode reusable tool semantics and workflows but are typically used only as inference-time context. We introduce Skill Pre-Training (SPT), a mid-training method that applies causal language modeling to SkillCorpus, a collection of public multi-file skill packages, optionally mixed with general data. To preserve relations among files within each package, we also introduce Reference Insert, a reference-aware assembly strategy that places supporting files near their mentions in the primary instruction. Experiments across multiple model scales and post-training recipes show that SPT consistently improves agentic performance over mid-training on general or trajectory data, while largely preserving general performance. Data mixture experiments show additional benefits from combining skill data with general annealing corpora. These results indicate that skill packages are a valuable data source for pre-training agentic language models.

LLM agents benefit from reusable skills, yet test-time tasks often require guidance more specific than a static skill library can provide. We propose SkillTTA, a Test-Time Adaptive Skill Synthesis method that retrieves a small set of training trajectories relevant to the current task and synthesizes them into a temporary, task-specific textual skill. The solver model is kept fixed, so adaptation happens entirely through generated context rather than parameter updates. We evaluate the method on SpreadsheetBench, ALFWorld, and BigCodeBench. Compared with static trajectory-to-skill synthesis using GPT-5.5, task-specific skills improve SpreadsheetBench Pass@1 from 0.397 to 0.505 and BigCodeBench Pass@1 from 0.517 to 0.651. On ALFWorld, the method matches a heavier memory-learning baseline within four points of success rate while producing the shortest successful trajectories among reported methods. Ablations on SpreadsheetBench further show that synthesized skills outperform raw trajectory prompting, that top-k retrieval should stay small, and that failed trajectories are especially useful because they expose recurring evaluator-facing mistakes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

Large language model (LLM) agents such as OpenClaw rely on reusable skills to perform complex tasks, yet these skills remain largely static after deployment. As a result, similar workflows, tool usage patterns, and failure modes are repeatedly rediscovered across users, preventing the system from improving with experience. While interactions from different users provide complementary signals about when a skill works or fails, existing systems lack a mechanism to convert such heterogeneous experiences into reliable skill updates. To address these issues, we present SkillClaw, a framework for collective skill evolution in multi-user agent ecosystems, which treats cross-user and over-time interactions as the primary signal for improving skills. SkillClaw continuously aggregates trajectories generated during use and processes them with an autonomous evolver, which identifies recurring behavioral patterns and translates them into updates to the skill set by refining existing skills or extending them with new capabilities. The resulting skills are maintained in a shared repository and synchronized across users, allowing improvements discovered in one context to propagate system-wide while requiring no additional effort from users. By integrating multi-user experience into ongoing skill updates, SkillClaw enables cross-user knowledge transfer and cumulative capability improvement, and experiments on WildClawBench show that limited interaction and feedback, it significantly improves the performance of Qwen3-Max in real-world agent scenarios.

Agent skills have become an important mechanism for equipping language-model agents with reusable procedural knowledge. However, providing skills alone does not guarantee that current models can effectively identify, apply, and coordinate them. To improve skill-use capabilities, we introduce SKT, a verified data synthesis pipeline that constructs skill-grounded tasks and executable trajectories from large collections of agent skills. SKT selects suitable single-skill and multi-skill configurations, synthesizes tasks through rule-based and agent-based verification with feedback-guided repair, and retains only successful trajectories that substantially use every required skill. Using 2,000 public skills, SKT produces 4,000 task packages and 27,164 verified trajectories. Based on the same pipeline and a disjoint test pool, we further construct SkillEval, a held-out executable benchmark for evaluating skill use. Experiments across diverse models, benchmarks, and agent harnesses show that supervised fine-tuning on SKT-generated trajectories consistently improves skill-use performance. Verification ablations, cross-harness evaluation, and scaling experiments further demonstrate that these gains depend on high-quality supervision, extend beyond a single agent interface, and increase with broader skill coverage. Together, these results establish verified data synthesis as an effective and scalable approach for skill-use training.

Behavior of deep neural networks can be inconsistent between different versions. Regressions during model update are a common cause of concern that often over-weigh the benefits in accuracy or efficiency gain. This work focuses on quantifying, reducing and analyzing regression errors in the NLP model updates. Using negative flip rate as regression measure, we show that regression has a prevalent presence across tasks in the GLUE benchmark. We formulate the regression-free model updates into a constrained optimization problem, and further reduce it into a relaxed form which can be approximately optimized through knowledge distillation training method. We empirically analyze how model ensemble reduces regression. Finally, we conduct CheckList behavioral testing to understand the distribution of regressions across linguistic phenomena, and the efficacy of ensemble and distillation methods.

Modern scientific ecosystems are rich in procedural knowledge across repositories, APIs, scripts, notebooks, documentation, databases, and papers, yet much of this knowledge remains fragmented across heterogeneous artifacts that agents cannot readily operationalize. This gap between abundant scientific know-how and usable agent capabilities is a key bottleneck for building effective scientific agents. We present SkillFoundry, a self-evolving framework that converts such resources into validated agent skills, reusable packages that encode task scope, inputs and outputs, execution steps, environment assumptions, provenance, and tests. SkillFoundry organizes a target domain as a domain knowledge tree, mines resources from high-value branches, extracts operational contracts, compiles them into executable skill packages, and then iteratively expands, repairs, merges, or prunes the resulting library through a closed-loop validation process. SkillFoundry produces a substantially novel and internally valid skill library, with 71.1\% of mined skills differing from existing skill libraries such as SkillHub and SkillSMP. We demonstrate that these mined skills improve coding agent performance on five of the six MoSciBench datasets. We further show that SkillFoundry can design new task-specific skills on demand for concrete scientific objectives, and that the resulting skills substantially improve performance on two challenging genomics tasks: cell type annotation and the scDRS workflow. Together, these results show that automatically mined skills improve agent performance on benchmarks and domain-specific tasks, expand coverage beyond hand-crafted skill libraries, and provide a practical foundation for more capable scientific agents.

Unsupervised skill learning aims to learn a rich repertoire of behaviors without external supervision, providing artificial agents with the ability to control and influence the environment. However, without appropriate knowledge and exploration, skills may provide control only over a restricted area of the environment, limiting their applicability. Furthermore, it is unclear how to leverage the learned skill behaviors for adapting to downstream tasks in a data-efficient manner. We present Choreographer, a model-based agent that exploits its world model to learn and adapt skills in imagination. Our method decouples the exploration and skill learning processes, being able to discover skills in the latent state space of the model. During adaptation, the agent uses a meta-controller to evaluate and adapt the learned skills efficiently by deploying them in parallel in imagination. Choreographer is able to learn skills both from offline data, and by collecting data simultaneously with an exploration policy. The skills can be used to effectively adapt to downstream tasks, as we show in the URL benchmark, where we outperform previous approaches from both pixels and states inputs. The learned skills also explore the environment thoroughly, finding sparse rewards more frequently, as shown in goal-reaching tasks from the DMC Suite and Meta-World. Website and code: https://skillchoreographer.github.io/

Skill Extraction (SE) is an important and widely-studied task useful to gain insights into labor market dynamics. However, there is a lacuna of datasets and annotation guidelines; available datasets are few and contain crowd-sourced labels on the span-level or labels from a predefined skill inventory. To address this gap, we introduce SKILLSPAN, a novel SE dataset consisting of 14.5K sentences and over 12.5K annotated spans. We release its respective guidelines created over three different sources annotated for hard and soft skills by domain experts. We introduce a BERT baseline (Devlin et al., 2019). To improve upon this baseline, we experiment with language models that are optimized for long spans (Joshi et al., 2020; Beltagy et al., 2020), continuous pre-training on the job posting domain (Han and Eisenstein, 2019; Gururangan et al., 2020), and multi-task learning (Caruana, 1997). Our results show that the domain-adapted models significantly outperform their non-adapted counterparts, and single-task outperforms multi-task learning.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

Robot learning is splitting into two bets: policies that bake competence into frozen weights (vision-language-action, or VLA, models), and agents that write and refine their own executable skills as code. This survey organises the field around that axis of weights versus skills. Its central analytical contribution is a deep-dive that arranges code-as-policy methods by their degree of self-improvement, from zero-shot program synthesis, through closed-loop self-repair and persistent skill memory, to the sparsely populated cell in which execution feedback, skill memory, and evolutionary search combine into one open-ended loop; only a few very recent systems (for example ASPIRE, ENPIRE, and RoboClaw) occupy that cell. We map the complementary "skills" pole, from unsupervised reinforcement-learning skill discovery to large-language-model skill libraries, and show that the word "skill" is used in at least five distinct senses, of which only the code sense self-improves without gradient updates. We then connect the taxonomy to the emerging skill economy: commercial robot-skill marketplaces now distribute one-tap skills across robots but ship only static playback, which surfaces open problems of adaptation, cross-embodiment portability, provenance, safety verification, composition, and standardisation. This is a deliberately focused survey. Rather than cataloguing the field exhaustively, it examines 77 representative systems across six technique families through one taxonomy and a set of contrast tables, and it supplies operational definitions of the self-improvement mechanisms together with a statement of what each family cannot do.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents have rapidly evolved from code-completion tools into solvers of complex software engineering tasks. As developers collaborate with coding agents over time, their preferences emerge through repeated interactions and can be used to adapt agent behavior to better meet individual developers' needs. Capturing and reusing these preferences may reduce repeated corrections and improve developer-agent collaboration. Agent skills provide a lightweight mechanism for transferring experience without modifying model parameters. However, existing work primarily focuses on task-specific skills, and it remains unclear whether developer-specific skills distilled from interaction histories can generalize to future tasks. We propose a framework for extracting reusable developer preferences from interaction traces. It first generates personalized skills through rule-based bootstrapping and evidence-grounded refinement, and then evaluates them using a reproducible replay framework with an interactive, trajectory-conditioned LLM-based human developer simulator. We conduct an experiment on 206 real-world developer-agent sessions from 13 developers and compare personalized skills against no-skill, generic-skill, and other-user-skill baselines. Personalized skills provide small and inconsistent improvements over the no-skill baseline, whereas generic skills pooled across developers achieve the largest and most consistent gains. Further analysis suggests that personalized skills become more effective when developer preferences appear frequently, particularly when their histories contain multiple examples relevant to future tasks. These findings provide empirical insights into when developer-specific personalization is effective and demonstrate that broadly transferable procedural knowledge can be more robust than developer-specific preference signals.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

LLM agents increasingly rely on reusable skills, capability packages that combine instructions, control flow, constraints, and tool calls. In most current agent systems, however, skills are still represented by text-heavy artifacts, including SKILL.md-style documents and structured records whose machine-usable evidence remains embedded largely in natural-language descriptions. This poses a challenge for skill-centered agent systems: managing skill collections and using skills to support agent both require reasoning over invocation interfaces, execution structure, and concrete side effects that are often entangled in a single textual surface. An explicit representation of skill knowledge may therefore help make these artifacts easier for machines to acquire and leverage. Drawing on Memory Organization Packets, Script Theory, and Conceptual Dependency from Schank and Abelson's classical work on linguistic knowledge representation, we introduce what is, to our knowledge, the first structured representation for agent skill artifacts that disentangles skill-level scheduling signals, scene-level execution structure, and logic-level action and resource-use evidence: the Scheduling-Structural-Logical (SSL) representation. We instantiate SSL with an LLM-based normalizer and evaluate it on a corpus of skills in two tasks, Skill Discovery and Risk Assessment, and superiorly outperform the text-only baselines: in Skill Discovery, SSL improves MRR from 0.573 to 0.707; in Risk Assessment, it improves macro F1 from 0.744 to 0.787. These findings reveal that explicit, source-grounded structure makes agent skills easier to search and review. They also suggest that SSL is best understood as a practical step toward more inspectable, reusable, and operationally actionable skill representations for agent systems, rather than as a finished standard or an end-to-end mechanism for managing and using skills.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.