Update model card: accurate TempoPFN attribution + Apache-2.0 license
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README.md
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It is trained in two stages:
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1. Base model: A ~1.2M-parameter linear-RNN backbone (
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TempoPFN), trained from
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2. **MacroCast** — Base model **fine-tuned** on FRED-MD via an expanding-window,
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real-time-vintage procedure, using a mixture of macro-calibrated synthetic
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panels (block-bootstrap, per-variable AR, Dynamic Factor Model, and BVAR).
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- Built for **monthly macroeconomic** panels. Feed transformed/stationary inputs.
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- Forecasts are statistical outputs, **not financial or policy advice**.
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## Acknowledgements
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It is trained in two stages:
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1. Base model: A ~1.2M-parameter linear-RNN backbone (built on
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[TempoPFN](https://github.com/automl/TempoPFN), Apache-2.0), trained from
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scratch **entirely on synthetic data** (no real macro data).
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2. **MacroCast** — Base model **fine-tuned** on FRED-MD via an expanding-window,
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real-time-vintage procedure, using a mixture of macro-calibrated synthetic
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panels (block-bootstrap, per-variable AR, Dynamic Factor Model, and BVAR).
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- Built for **monthly macroeconomic** panels. Feed transformed/stationary inputs.
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- Forecasts are statistical outputs, **not financial or policy advice**.
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## Acknowledgements & license
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Built on [TempoPFN](https://github.com/automl/TempoPFN) (Apache-2.0): the model
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backbone, trainer, and synthetic-data generators are vendored from that project
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and modified for macroeconomic forecasting. Released under Apache-2.0. Please
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cite TempoPFN (Moroshan et al., 2025; [arXiv:2510.25502](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25502)).
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