{ "paper": { "title": "Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance", "openreview": "RG7maF4bGu" }, "protocol": { "precision": "float64", "device": "CPU", "external_compute_cost": 0 }, "summary": { "problems": 140, "dimensions": [ 2, 3, 5, 8, 16, 32, 64 ], "alpha_range": [ 0.0011005438914875921, 946.4622246988179 ], "noise_variance_range": [ 0.0011138089123204126, 900.7295682224885 ], "maximum_posterior_condition": 13850.875912934025, "gate_counts": { "posterior_trace_exceeds_mfvi": 140, "mfvi_overestimates_min_direction": 140, "max_direction_mutation_reverses": 140, "training_distribution_mfvi_exceeds_exact": 140, "training_identity": 140, "first_pc_is_min_posterior_direction": 140, "first_pc_overestimate": 140, "last_pc_mutation_reverses": 140, "nonspherical_prior_breaks_alignment": 140 }, "claim_1": { "minimum_trace_margin": 7.880246609540988e-07, "minimum_overestimate_margin": 4.3670042426917865e-09, "maximum_direction_mutation_failures": 140, "kl_optimizer_checks": 24, "kl_optimizer_worst_relative_error": 4.930412283060204e-07 }, "claim_2": { "largest_expected_exact_minus_mfvi": -1.6610865466911604e-12, "worst_identity_absolute_error": 1.2079226507921703e-13, "all_training_distribution_expectations_nonpositive": true }, "claim_3": { "worst_first_pc_alignment_error": 1.3322676295501878e-15, "minimum_first_pc_overestimate": 4.3670042426897426e-09, "last_pc_mutation_failures": 140, "nonspherical_prior_alignment_breaks": 140 }, "general_derivation": { "mfvi_optimum": "S*=diag(1/diag(Sigma^-1))", "trace_proof": "For A=Sigma^-1, A_ii <= lambda_max(A), and Schur complements give Sigma_ii >= 1/A_ii; summing yields Tr(Sigma)>=Tr(S*).", "direction_proof": "min_i 1/A_ii >= 1/lambda_max(A)=lambda_min(Sigma), hence S* dominates Sigma along Sigma's minimum-eigenvalue direction.", "training_distribution_identity": "tr[(X'X/N)(Sigma-S*)]=-(sigma^2 alpha/N)[Tr(Sigma)-Tr(S*)] <= 0.", "first_pc_proof": "Sigma^-1=X'X/sigma^2+alpha I commutes 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