# Reproduction: Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

## Pages

| Page |
| --- |
| [Executive summary](#/executive-summary) |
| [Claim 0: Current anchored-claim evidence map](#/claim-0-current-anchored-claim-map) |
| [Claim 1: Posterior underestimation can coexist with predictive overestimation](#/claim-1-directional-variance-inversion) |
| [Claim 2: Training-distribution predictive variance is lower](#/claim-2-training-distribution-identity) |
| [Claim 3: Overestimation follows directions of data concentration](#/claim-3-data-concentration) |
| [Conclusion](#/conclusion) |
| [Claim 4: cold posteriors correct the overestimation](#/claim-4-cold-posteriors) |
| [Claim 5: optimal temperatures in- and out-of-distribution](#/claim-5-optimal-temperatures) |