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Manuscript Tables

Table 1. Broad Model First-Appearance Temporal Metrics

Caption: No-review-status broad score_model evaluated on variants first appearing between ClinVar 2023-12-26 and 2025-12-21.

Split N AUROC AUPRC Brier ECE
first-appearance temporal 509974 0.99125 0.96938 0.02903 0.03428

Table 2. Per-Consequence Breakdown

Caption: Same first-appearance split; low-N classes are aggregated.

Consequence N Pos Neg AUROC AUPRC Brier ECE
non-coding_transcript_variant 34607 257 34350 0.91551 0.61517 0.00398 0.00219
3_prime_UTR_variant 3861 24 3837 0.89588 0.13295 0.00623 0.00464
other (low-N) 534 336 198 0.87042 0.90320 0.13473 0.05293
unknown 1503 542 961 0.86056 0.75580 0.14478 0.05336
missense_variant 67847 12943 54904 0.81292 0.55438 0.18069 0.23174
splice_donor_variant 8438 8238 200 0.81240 0.99205 0.01565 0.00245
5_prime_UTR_variant 6609 68 6541 0.77156 0.23015 0.00891 0.00739
inframe_deletion 386 219 167 0.76963 0.80047 0.20247 0.08748
initiator_codon_variant 713 615 98 0.74360 0.93131 0.09672 0.04770
intron_variant 153601 951 152650 0.73241 0.03627 0.00619 0.00863
frameshift_variant 38296 37947 349 0.72617 0.99567 0.00786 0.00094
nonsense 22375 22034 341 0.70115 0.99182 0.01238 0.00779
splice_acceptor_variant 7209 7081 128 0.70025 0.98999 0.01468 0.00421
synonymous_variant 163995 121 163874 0.64395 0.00175 0.00074 0.00078

Table 3. External Comparator, All-Variant Overlap

Caption: First-appearance temporal overlap where Project 1 external annotations exist; AlphaMissense/REVEL coverage is limited by design.

Model N AUROC AUPRC Brier
score_model v0 27850 0.98520 0.98167 0.04545
CADD PHRED 27850 0.99209 0.99086 0.18824
AlphaMissense 4988 0.97183 0.98189 0.07705
REVEL 6275 0.95642 0.97127 0.09579

Table 4. External Comparator, Missense-Only

Caption: First-appearance temporal missense-only comparison; AlphaMissense and REVEL are missense-oriented predictors.

Model N AUROC AUPRC Brier
score_model v0 5220 0.78497 0.83876 0.18825
missense v1 5018 0.83644 0.87361 0.20575
CADD PHRED 5220 0.94829 0.95653 0.15822
AlphaMissense 4965 0.97209 0.98214 0.07687
REVEL 5140 0.97769 0.98612 0.06937

Table 5. Qwen v0.1 vs Llama v0.2 Report Generation

Caption: Structured report-generation comparison; see source comparison report for full details.

KAUBioMED-LLM Qwen v0.1 vs Llama v0.2 Comparison

Date: 2026-06-15

Scientific Position

This comparison evaluates two KAUBioMED-LLM report-generation models under the same score-schema and guarded-report framework. The current kaubiomed_score remains an evidence-label score for report organization, not a leakage-free calibrated pathogenicity probability.

Summary Table

Metric Qwen v0.1 Llama v0.2
Base model Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct
Base/snapshot size 2.89 GB 29.93 GB
Adapter path models/kaubiomed_qwen2p5_1p5b_lora_calibrated models/kaubiomed_llama31_8b_lora_score_schema
Adapter size 304.0 MB 1.14 GB
Training records 910 910
Validation records 101 101
Epochs 1 2
Train loss 0.0475554999552275 0.22699994018726183
Eval loss 0.04750876873731613 0.0603446401655674
50-example raw strict JSON not separately measured for calibrated Qwen 50/50 (1.0)
Fresh strict valid 5/5 5/5
Fresh repaired records NA 0
Citation guard pass 5/5 5/5
Structure mapping OK 1/5 1/5
Structure abstained 4 4
Fresh inference runtime not consistently recorded in final Qwen summary 114.12 sec

Interpretation

  • Qwen v0.1 remains the lightweight reproducible prototype baseline.
  • Llama v0.2 is the stronger structured-output candidate: it achieved 50/50 raw strict JSON on validation and 5/5 raw strict JSON on fresh variants without repair.
  • Both models pass citation and abstention guards on the 5 fresh reports.
  • Structure behavior is identical because structure mapping is evidence-layer dependent, not base-model dependent: 1/5 fresh variants map to a reconciled missense residue; 4/5 correctly abstain.
  • Llama is larger and more expensive, so it should be positioned as a stronger v0.2 candidate rather than simply replacing Qwen without cost discussion.

Recommendation

Use Qwen v0.1 as the lightweight baseline and Llama v0.2 as the preferred high-capability report-generation model. The next scientific step is not another base-model swap; it is the leakage-free score_model and temporal validation benchmark.

Required Next Work

  1. Build label-free feature tables without ClinVar-derived prompt labels.
  2. Train a separate score model on clean features.
  3. Run temporal ClinVar validation with AUROC, AUPRC, Brier, and ECE.
  4. Add the benchmark results to the manuscript and model card.