Changelog
All notable changes to this dataset. The data itself is dated and append-only; this log records structural changes (new files, schema, coverage).
2026-06-10 — Robustness & research release
Major enrichment toward academic-grade, poll-centric use.
Added
polls/tse-registry.csv/.json— official TSE poll-registration registry (382 records): institute, sample, scope, UF, field dates, registration number, declared cost. Registration metadata only.polls/national-poll-results-firstround.csv(158 rows) and-secondround.csv(38 rows) — published national poll results, long format, carrying TSE registration numbers; reconstructed from the full platform history (22 distinct national polls, Mar–Jun 2026).polls/national-polls.json— full structured national polls (results + methodology).data/market-odds-timeseries.csv— daily Polymarket presidential odds per candidate, backfilled to 2026-04-17 (previously divergence/market files began only 2026-06-04).data/divergence-timeseries.csv— market × poll divergence per candidate, reconstructed by joining each national poll to the market odds on its date.DATA_DICTIONARY.md,CITATION.cff,CHANGELOG.md— academic documentation.
Fixed
- Backfill gap: the daily divergence/poll/news files had no historical backfill (only the analysis snapshots did), so the market & divergence series started on 2026-06-04. The new time-series files restore the full history from the archived snapshots.
2026-06-05 — Initial public mirror
- Daily mirror established:
snapshots/analysis-criteriosa,snapshots/analysis-cards(backfilled from 2026-04-17),polls/polls-data-{date}.json,data/divergence-{date}.csv,news/news-{date}.json. - Dual license (CC BY 4.0 data / Apache 2.0 code); database-free export pipeline (no subscriber data).