Data Dictionary — AFOS Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence
🌐 EN — Data dictionary for the AFOS Colombia 2026 electoral-divergence dataset (polls × prediction market). · PT — Dicionário de dados do dataset AFOS Colômbia 2026 (pesquisas × mercado de previsão). · ES — Diccionario de datos del dataset AFOS Colombia 2026 (encuestas × mercado de predicción). Column names and definitions below are kept in English (CSV/academic standard). · Os nomes e definições de coluna seguem em inglês (padrão dos CSVs). · Los nombres y definiciones de columna se mantienen en inglés (estándar de los CSV).
All figures trace to a named pollster's published release (compiled from the Wikipedia aggregation, rowspan/colspan-aware parser) or to a public Polymarket market. Missing values are left blank, never imputed.
polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv (long format)
One row per candidate per poll. 29 polls × up to 10 candidates = 170 rows, 2025→May 2026.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
poll_date |
date | End of fieldwork (YYYY-MM-DD). For tables whose dates omit the year, the year is inferred from the table's predominant year. |
fieldwork |
string | Fieldwork window as published. |
pollster |
string | Polling firm / publishing client (e.g. "Invamer", "AtlasIntel/SEMANA"). |
sample |
integer | Sample size. |
candidate |
string | Candidate full name. |
party |
string | Party / movement. |
percent |
number | First-round voting intention, %. |
Candidates tracked (10, present in the first-round CSV): Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico), Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensores de la Patria), Sergio Fajardo, Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Vicky Dávila, Daniel Quintero, Juan Manuel Galán (Nuevo Liberalismo), María José Pizarro, Juan Carlos Pinzón, Roy Barreras. (Germán Vargas Lleras appears in the market-odds series only, not in these polls.)
polls/colombia-polls.json
Structured object: { description, source, election, counts, first_round[], runoff[] }. Each poll carries poll_date, fieldwork, pollster, sample, results[] (candidate/party/percent). runoff[] is empty (see runoff note in the README).
data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv
Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate, from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market (covers the campaign through the 21 Jun runoff). Includes all market candidates, not only those polled.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
date |
date | YYYY-MM-DD. |
candidate |
string | Candidate name (party suffix stripped). |
polymarket_pct |
number | Implied win probability, % (daily close). |
volume_usd |
number | Cumulative market volume, USD. |
data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv
Each first-round poll result joined to the candidate's market odds on the poll date.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
poll_date |
date | Poll fieldwork end. |
pollster |
string | Polling firm. |
candidate |
string | Candidate (canonical name). |
poll_pct |
number | First-round vote intention, %. |
polymarket_pct |
number | Win probability on polymarket_date, %. |
polymarket_date |
date | Market date used: nearest available on or before poll_date. |
divergence_pp |
number | polymarket_pct − poll_pct, percentage points. |
Interpretation caveat: a poll reports first-round vote share; the Polymarket contract prices probability of winning the election. These are different quantities —
divergence_ppis the gap AFOS tracks editorially (the spread is the signal, see README "Notable divergences"), not a like-for-like polling-error metric.