AFOS-Analytics1/colombia-2026-electoral-divergence

AFOS · Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset

🌐 English · Español · Português

Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls × prediction markets for Colombia's 2026 presidential election (first round 31 May 2026; runoff 21 June 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda), built like the AFOS Brazil & Peru datasets: sources are reported side by side with explicit divergence, not blended into a single average.

Maintained by AFOS Analytics. Part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method across Latin America. No personal data — only public electoral information.

License (dual): data → CC BY 4.0 (LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0); code/scripts → Apache 2.0 (LICENSE-APACHE-2.0), matching the repo root and the Hugging Face mirror. Please attribute AFOS Analytics and the original pollsters.

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English

Path	Rows	Content
polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv	170	First-round voting intention, long format (one row per candidate × poll), 10 candidates, 29 polls, 2025→May 2026.
polls/colombia-polls.json	—	Full structured polls with methodology.
data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv	4,620	Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (19 candidates, Jul 2025→Jun 2026) from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market.
data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv	121	Market × poll divergence per candidate — each first-round poll joined to the candidate's market odds on its date.
data/colombia-poly-raw.json	—	Raw Polymarket payload (provenance).

Runoff note: the runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda, 21 Jun) is in the market series, but Wikipedia's runoff polling is published as hypothetical-matchup matrices that don't parse cleanly, so the poll side here is first round only.

⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)

The point of this dataset is the gap between what the market prices (probability of winning) and what polls measure (first-round vote share). Averaging the two would erase exactly the signal below. From the latest pre-election poll (Invamer, 20 May 2026):

• Abelardo de la Espriella — poll 31.6% × market 43.5% (+11.9pp). The market priced his win probability ~12 points above his first-round vote-share polling — and he won the first round with 43.7%. The market's signal matched the result; vote-share polls understated him.
• Iván Cepeda — poll 44.6% × market 43.5% (−1.1pp). Near-zero divergence: market and polls agreed he led on vote share, but priced him roughly even with Espriella to win — foreshadowing a tight runoff.
• Paloma Valencia — poll 14% × market 14.5% (+0.5pp): market and polls in lockstep.
• Earlier in the cycle the market ran below some candidates' vote share (e.g. Daniel Quintero, Nov 2025, poll 5.2% × market 0.6%, −4.6pp) — it never believed they could win.

The reading: a single blended "market + polls" average would have shown Cepeda comfortably ahead and hidden that the market gave the eventual first-round winner (Espriella) a far higher chance than his vote-share suggested. The divergence was the signal.

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Español

Dataset abierto que cruza encuestas × mercados de predicción para la elección presidencial de Colombia 2026 (primera vuelta 31 may; segunda vuelta 21 jun, de la Espriella vs Cepeda), con divergencia explícita en lugar de un promedio único.

• polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv — intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, 10 candidatos, 29 encuestas (2025→may 2026).
• data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv / colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv — probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta.

⚖️ Divergencias destacadas (por qué la divergencia supera al promedio)

Lo importante es la brecha entre lo que valora el mercado (probabilidad de ganar) y lo que miden las encuestas (voto de primera vuelta). De la última encuesta preelectoral (Invamer, 20 may 2026):

• Abelardo de la Espriella — encuesta 31,6% × mercado 43,5% (+11,9pp). El mercado valoró su probabilidad de ganar ~12 puntos por encima de su voto — y ganó la primera vuelta con 43,7%. La señal del mercado coincidió con el resultado; las encuestas lo subestimaron.
• Iván Cepeda — encuesta 44,6% × mercado 43,5% (−1,1pp). Divergencia casi nula: mercado y encuestas coincidían en que lideraba en voto, pero lo valoraban casi a la par con Espriella para ganar — anticipando un balotaje reñido.
• Paloma Valencia — encuesta 14% × mercado 14,5% (+0,5pp): mercado y encuestas al unísono.
• Daniel Quintero — (nov 2025) encuesta 5,2% × mercado 0,6% (−4,6pp): el mercado nunca creyó que pudiera ganar.

La lectura: un promedio "mercado + encuestas" habría mostrado a Cepeda cómodamente al frente y ocultado que el mercado le dio al ganador efectivo de primera vuelta (Espriella) una probabilidad mucho mayor que su voto. La divergencia era la señal.

Encuestadoras: Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG. Fuente: Wikipedia + AS/COA. Licencia: CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.

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Português

Dataset aberto cruzando pesquisas × mercados de previsão para a eleição presidencial da Colômbia 2026 (1º turno 31/mai; 2º turno 21/jun, de la Espriella × Cepeda), com divergência explícita entre fontes. Pesquisas (10 candidatos, 29 do 1º turno) compiladas da Wikipedia + AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.

⚖️ Divergências em destaque (por que a divergência supera a média)

O ponto é a diferença entre o que o mercado precifica (probabilidade de vencer) e o que as pesquisas medem (voto de 1º turno). Da última pesquisa pré-eleição (Invamer, 20/mai/2026):

• Abelardo de la Espriella — pesquisa 31,6% × mercado 43,5% (+11,9pp). O mercado precificou a chance de vencer dele ~12 pontos acima do voto — e ele venceu o 1º turno com 43,7%. O sinal do mercado bateu com o resultado; a pesquisa o subestimou.
• Iván Cepeda — pesquisa 44,6% × mercado 43,5% (−1,1pp). Divergência quase nula: mercado e pesquisa concordavam que ele liderava em voto, mas o precificavam quase empatado com Espriella para vencer — antecipando um 2º turno apertado.
• Paloma Valencia — pesquisa 14% × mercado 14,5% (+0,5pp): mercado e pesquisa em uníssono.
• Daniel Quintero — (nov 2025) pesquisa 5,2% × mercado 0,6% (−4,6pp): o mercado nunca acreditou que ele pudesse vencer.

A leitura: uma média "mercado + pesquisas" mostraria Cepeda confortavelmente à frente e esconderia que o mercado deu ao vencedor efetivo do 1º turno (Espriella) uma chance bem maior que o voto dele. A divergência era o sinal.

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Sources / Fuentes: Pollsters (Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG, …) · Wikipedia — 2026 Colombian presidential election · AS/COA poll tracker · Polymarket. Column definitions in DATA_DICTIONARY.md.