Data Dictionary: AFOS · United Kingdom 2024 Electoral Divergence
Every file and column, with type, unit and provenance. Party-level: polls measure party vote share, the market prices the probability of winning the most seats (FPTP plurality). Values are never imputed or smoothed, missing values are left blank.
polls/uk-polls.csv
Party vote-share polling, long format, one row per party × poll.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
poll_date |
date | Last date of poll (YYYY-MM-DD). |
fieldwork |
string | Date or window as published. |
pollster |
string | Polling firm (YouGov, Savanta, Deltapoll, Opinium, Ipsos, Survation, More in Common, …). |
sample |
integer | Sample size, blank when not declared (thousands separators normalized). |
party |
string | Party (canonical): Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, Reform, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru. |
party_full |
string | Full party name (Labour Party, Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, …). |
percent |
number | Party vote-share intention, %. |
polls/uk-polls.json
Full structured polls (pollster, fieldwork, sample, per-party results). Deduplicated by (pollster, date), keeping the most complete row. Parsed from the single national voting-intention table of 2024 (older-year and regional tables excluded).
data/uk-market-odds-timeseries.csv
Polymarket "wins the most seats" probability per series, daily, from the "Which party wins the most seats after UK Election?" market.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
date |
date | YYYY-MM-DD. |
party |
string | Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, Reform, Other. |
polymarket_pct |
number | Implied probability of winning the most seats, %. |
volume_usd |
number | Cumulative traded volume for that series, USD (total market about US$ 1.76M). |
Post-election resolution points (after
2024-07-04) were dropped, so the series ends on election day. This removes a settlement spike on the Reform series on 5 July.
data/uk-divergence-timeseries.csv
Market × poll divergence per party, each poll's vote share joined to that party's market odds on the poll's date (nearest on or before). Only the four parties present in both market and polls cross: Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, Reform.
| Column | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
poll_date |
date | Poll date. |
pollster |
string | Polling firm. |
party |
string | Canonical party name. |
poll_pct |
number | Party vote share, %. |
polymarket_pct |
number | Market "wins most seats" probability on polymarket_date, %. |
polymarket_date |
date | Market date used (nearest on-or-before poll_date). |
divergence_pp |
number | polymarket_pct minus poll_pct, percentage points. |
Interpretation caveat: a poll reports vote share, the market prices probability of winning the most seats (the FPTP plurality). The two are different quantities, so
divergence_ppis the spread AFOS tracks, not an error metric. In 2024 Labour led the vote around 39% while the market priced it near 99% to win the most seats, and first-past-the-post turned 33.7% of the vote into 411 of 650 seats. Polls before the market opened (2024-05-01) are not joined: 523 such poll rows are left out of the divergence file by design, and that is logged when the build runs.
data/uk-poly-raw.json
Raw Polymarket payload (event plus per-series price histories) for the most-seats market, via a US-resolving function, kept for provenance.
data/uk-poly-vote-share-raw.json
Raw payload for the secondary "UK Election: Labour % of the vote?" market, kept for provenance.
Sources: Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election · Polymarket "Which party wins the most seats after UK Election?". Maintained by AFOS Analytics. Data CC BY 4.0, code Apache 2.0.