| --- |
| license: cc-by-4.0 |
| language: |
| - en |
| - he |
| pretty_name: Jerusalem Air Quality — Weekday vs Shabbat |
| size_categories: |
| - 1M<n<10M |
| tags: |
| - air-quality |
| - environmental |
| - jerusalem |
| - israel |
| - time-series |
| - shabbat |
| - sabbath |
| - pm25 |
| - no2 |
| - environmental-monitoring |
| configs: |
| - config_name: default |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: data/readings.parquet |
| - config_name: aqi_hourly |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: data/aqi_hourly.parquet |
| - config_name: weather_hourly |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: data/weather_hourly.parquet |
| - config_name: jlm_deweathered |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: data/jlm_deweathered.parquet |
| - config_name: control_deweathered |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: data/control_deweathered.parquet |
| --- |
| |
|  |
|
|
| # Jerusalem Air Quality — Weekday vs Shabbat |
|
|
| Twelve months of 5-minute-resolution air-quality readings from **12 monitoring |
| stations across Jerusalem**, formatted for analysing the weekday vs Friday vs |
| Shabbat (Saturday) pattern in urban pollution. |
|
|
| > 📊 **Companion analysis repository:** |
| > [`danielrosehill/JLM-Air-Quality-Analysis`](https://github.com/danielrosehill/JLM-Air-Quality-Analysis) |
| > — exact halachic relabeling, cross-city control analysis (London + New |
| > York), and the figure set summarised below. Reproducible scripts included. |
|
|
| The motivation: Jerusalem has a uniquely strong weekly traffic cycle — many |
| streets in observant neighbourhoods empty out from Friday afternoon to |
| Saturday night. This dataset is intended to support quantitative work on |
| the resulting air-quality signal. |
|
|
| ## Source and attribution |
|
|
| All readings come from the **Israeli Ministry of Environmental Protection |
| (המשרד להגנת הסביבה)** national air-quality monitoring network, accessed |
| through the public portal at <https://air.sviva.gov.il/>. |
|
|
| The MoEP / sviva.gov.il site is the canonical source. This dataset is a |
| convenience repackaging of that public data into a tidy parquet file with |
| some derived columns (local time, day-of-week, Shabbat/Friday flags) and |
| 12 months of history pre-aggregated for the Jerusalem stations. |
|
|
| If you use this data in research or downstream work, please cite the |
| **Israeli Ministry of Environmental Protection** as the original source. |
|
|
| ## Coverage |
|
|
| - **Window:** 2025-04-28 → 2026-04-28 (12 months, full year) |
| - **Resolution:** 5 minutes (native sensor cadence) |
| - **Stations:** 12 active continuous monitoring stations within the |
| Jerusalem region (`regionId == 8` in the source system). |
| - **Total valid readings:** ~7.1 million (only readings flagged `valid` |
| by the source system are included; sensor-error / calibration rows are |
| dropped). |
|
|
| ### Stations |
|
|
| | station_id | Name (English) | Name (Hebrew) | Notes | |
| |---|---|---|---| |
| | 5 | Bar Ilan St | רחוב בר אילן | Major arterial through ultra-Orthodox neighbourhood | |
| | 13 | Baka | בקעה | Residential mixed | |
| | 36 | Safra Square | כיכר ספרא | City centre / municipal complex | |
| | 193 | Romema | רוממה | Ultra-Orthodox | |
| | 310 | Central Bus Station Platform 10 | רציף 10 תחנה מרכזית | Heavy bus traffic | |
| | 328 | Atarot industrial zone | אזור תעשייה עטרות | Industrial / north | |
| | 458 | Devorah HaNevia St | רחוב דבורה הנביאה | Residential | |
| | 547 | Highway 16 / Beit interchange | כביש 16-מחלף בייט | Highway interchange | |
| | 568 | Rockefeller Museum | מוזיאון רוקפלר | East Jerusalem corridor | |
| | 607 | Beit Safafa | בית צפאפא | South-east neighbourhood | |
| | 623 | Atarot Eden | עטרות עדן | North; partial coverage from 2025-08 | |
| | 635 | Bezalel St | ירושלים, רחוב בצלאל בזק | City centre; partial coverage from 2026-02 | |
| |
| Full station metadata is in `stations.csv`. |
| |
| ### Pollutants and parameters |
| |
| Per-station coverage varies — not every station measures every parameter. |
| The full set present in the dataset: |
| |
| | code | pollutant_en | typical units | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `NO` | Nitric oxide | ppb | |
| | `NOX` | Nitrogen oxides | ppb | |
| | `NO2` | Nitrogen dioxide | ppb | |
| | `CO` | Carbon monoxide | ppm | |
| | `O3` | Ozone | ppb | |
| | `SO2` | Sulphur dioxide | ppb | |
| | `PM2.5` | Fine particulates | µg/m³ | |
| | `PM10` | Coarse particulates | µg/m³ | |
| | `TSP` | Total suspended particulates | µg/m³ | |
| | `Benzene` | Benzene | ppb | |
| | `Toluene` | Toluene | ppb | |
| | `Temp`, `ITemp`, `RH`, `WS`, `WD` | Meteorological co-variates | — | |
|
|
| ## Schema |
|
|
| The dataset ships **two parquet tables**: a long-format table of raw readings |
| with halachic labels, and a wide-format hourly table with derived AQI and |
| activity-isolating composite indices. |
|
|
| ### `data/readings.parquet` — long form (one row per station × timestamp × pollutant) |
|
|
| | column | type | description | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `station_id` | int | MoEP station identifier | |
| | `station_name_he` | string | Station name in Hebrew | |
| | `station_name_en` | string | Station name in English | |
| | `station_lat`, `station_lon` | float | Station coordinates (WGS-84) | |
| | `timestamp` | timestamp\[UTC\] | Reading timestamp in UTC | |
| | `timestamp_local` | timestamp\[Asia/Jerusalem\] | Same instant in local time (handles DST) | |
| | `dow` | int8 | Day of week, Sun=0 … Sat=6 (Israeli convention) | |
| | `hour` | int8 | Local hour 0–23 | |
| | `is_friday` | bool | Calendar Friday | |
| | **`is_shabbat`** | **bool** | **Exact halachic Shabbat: candle-lighting → tzeit hakochavim, weekly Shabbatot only** (Hebcal, Jerusalem times) | |
| | `shabbat_or_chag_exact` | bool | Either Shabbat or any chag with driving prohibition, exact halachic windows | |
| | `is_yom_tov` | bool | Inside a chag window (Pesach, Shavuot, Rosh Hashana, Sukkot, Shemini Atzeret) | |
| | `is_yom_kippur` | bool | Exact Yom Kippur window — broken out from `is_yom_tov` | |
| | `is_pre_shabbat` | bool | 2-hour window before candle-lighting (erev-Shabbat shopping rush) | |
| | `is_post_havdalah` | bool | 2-hour window after havdalah (post-Shabbat rebound) | |
| | `segment` | string | Mutually-exclusive bucket: `weekday`, `pre_shabbat`, `shabbat`, `post_havdalah`, `yom_tov`, `yom_kippur` (priority-ordered, highest wins). The recommended grouping column. | |
| | `holiday` | string \| null | Name of any Jewish holiday for that local date (joined with `; ` if multiple) | |
| | `pollutant` | string | Source code (e.g. `NO2`, `PM2.5`) | |
| | `pollutant_en` | string | English long name | |
| | `pollutant_he` | string | Hebrew long name | |
| | `pollutant_id` | int | MoEP pollutant identifier | |
| | `value` | float64 | Reading value | |
| | `units` | string | Reading units | |
| |
| > ⚠️ **Schema change vs earlier revisions**: `is_shabbat` is now the **exact halachic** flag (candle-lighting → havdalah). The old naïve "calendar Saturday" semantics are no longer carried — use `dow == 6` if you need that. New columns: `is_yom_kippur`, `is_pre_shabbat`, `is_post_havdalah`, `segment`. |
|
|
| ### `data/aqi_hourly.parquet` — wide form (one row per station × hour) |
| |
| Pivots the long parquet to one row per station-hour with all measured |
| pollutants as columns, then adds EPA AQI sub-indices, the composite EPA |
| AQI, and two activity-isolating indices. |
| |
| | column group | columns | description | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | Identifiers | `station_id`, `station_name_en`, `station_lat`, `station_lon`, `hour_bin`, `dow`, `hour` | One row per station × UTC hour | |
| | Halachic labels | `is_friday`, `is_shabbat`, `is_pre_shabbat`, `is_post_havdalah`, `is_yom_tov`, `is_yom_kippur`, `segment`, `holiday` | Same semantics as the long parquet | |
| | Hourly pollutant means | `pm25`, `pm10`, `no2`, `no`, `nox`, `co`, `o3`, `benzene`, `toluene`, `tsp` | Mean over the hour, native units (PM in µg/m³, gases in ppb / CO in ppm) | |
| | AQI averaging windows | `pm25_24h`, `pm10_24h`, `o3_8h`, `co_8h` | Rolling means as required by EPA AQI breakpoints | |
| | EPA AQI sub-indices | `aqi_pm25`, `aqi_pm10`, `aqi_o3`, `aqi_no2`, `aqi_co` | Linear-interpolated per-pollutant sub-indices using EPA breakpoints | |
| | Composite AQI | `aqi_epa`, `aqi_dominant`, `aqi_category` | Max of sub-indices; name of the pollutant driving it; verbal band (Good / Moderate / Unhealthy / …) | |
| | Canadian AQHI | `aqhi`, `aqhi_band` | Health Canada's additive, mortality-risk-weighted index of NO₂ + O₃ + PM2.5 (3-hour rolling means). Computed at *city* level (no single Jerusalem station measures all three pollutants) and broadcast to every station-row at that hour. Bands: Low 1–3, Moderate 4–6, High 7–10, Very High 11+. | |
|
|
| ### `data/weather_hourly.parquet` — meteorological covariates |
| |
| Hourly weather from [Open-Meteo's Historical Weather API](https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api) (ERA5-backed reanalysis), one row per (`city`, `timestamp_utc`): |
|
|
| | column | description | |
| |---|---| |
| | `city` | `Jerusalem`, `London`, or `New York` | |
| | `timestamp_utc` | UTC hour | |
| | `temperature_2m` | °C at 2 m | |
| | `relative_humidity_2m` | % at 2 m | |
| | `wind_speed_10m` | m/s at 10 m | |
| | `wind_direction_10m` | degrees at 10 m | |
| | `pressure_msl` | hPa, sea-level reduced | |
| | `boundary_layer_height` | m — most important variable for surface pollution (low BLH traps emissions) | |
| | `precipitation` | mm | |
|
|
| Used for meteorological normalisation in `jlm_deweathered.parquet` and `control_deweathered.parquet`. |
|
|
| ### `data/jlm_deweathered.parquet` and `data/control_deweathered.parquet` — meteorology-controlled series |
|
|
| Per-station, per-pollutant, per-hour pollutant series after Random Forest meteorological normalisation following the openair `deweather::buildMod` workflow. Each row contains: |
|
|
| | column | description | |
| |---|---| |
| | `station_id` (or `location_id`+`city` for controls) | Station | |
| | `timestamp_utc` | UTC hour | |
| | `pollutant_en` (or `pollutant`) | Pollutant | |
| | `value_raw` | Raw hourly mean concentration (same units as original) | |
| | `value_dw` | Deweathered concentration: `raw − RF_predicted + mean(raw)` | |
| | `units` | Native units | |
| | (Jerusalem only) | `is_shabbat`, `is_yom_tov`, `is_yom_kippur`, `segment`, `dow`, `hour` | |
|
|
| **Method.** A Random Forest is fit per pollutant per city, regressing hourly concentration on weather covariates (T, RH, wind speed, wind direction sin/cos, pressure, BLH, precipitation), seasonal day-of-year (sin/cos), and station ID. Hour-of-day and day-of-week are deliberately **excluded** from the feature set — they would let the model absorb the diurnal traffic cycle and the Shabbat / weekend effect along with weather, eliminating the very signal the analysis is trying to measure. Day-of-year stays in to capture seasonal trend (winter heating, summer photochemistry). |
|
|
| Subtracting the model's prediction from the raw value gives a residualised series whose Shabbat-vs-weekday contrast is attributable to *non-meteorological* factors. R² typically 0.7–0.95 depending on pollutant. |
|
|
| ### `data/deweathered_comparison.csv` — summary |
| |
| Headline weather-controlled Shabbat % drops, Jerusalem only: |
| |
| | Pollutant | Raw drop | After weather control | |
| |---|---:|---:| |
| | NO | −80% | **−52%** | |
| | NOx | −69% | **−43%** | |
| | NO₂ | −59% | **−34%** | |
| | Toluene | −52% | **−17%** | |
| | PM10 | +11% | **−12%** *(paradox flips)* | |
| | Benzene | −27% | **−9%** | |
| | PM2.5 | +28% | **−4%** *(paradox dissolves)* | |
| | CO | −12% | −4% | |
| | O₃ | +3% | +1% | |
| |
| Roughly **half the raw NO₂ drop is real**, the rest is weather. Both PM paradoxes (PM2.5 and PM10 going *up* on Shabbat) dissolve once meteorology is controlled — they were dust-event artefacts, not Shabbat effects. |
| | **Traffic-Combustion Index** | `tci`, `tci_n_inputs` | Mean of per-station z-scores (vs `segment == 'weekday'` daytime baseline) of NO₂, NO, NOx, CO, benzene, toluene. Negative = below the workweek norm. | |
| | **Photochemical/Dust Index** | `pd_index`, `pd_n_inputs` | Mean of z-scores of O₃ + PM2.5. Moves opposite to TCI on Shabbat — captures the "wrong-way" pollutants. | |
|
|
| The two custom indices are not standards. They exist because the EPA |
| composite AQI is dominated by particulates here and barely moves on Shabbat, |
| which obscures the (very real) drop in traffic-attributable pollutants. |
| TCI is the cars-and-construction signal; PD-Index is the photochemistry + |
| long-range-transport signal that goes the other way. |
|
|
| **AQI methodology in one paragraph.** Hourly station means are computed |
| from the long table. PM2.5 and PM10 are 24-hour-rolling-averaged before |
| applying their breakpoints; O₃ and CO are 8-hour-averaged; NO₂ uses the |
| 1-hour value directly. Each pollutant produces a 0–500 sub-index via |
| linear interpolation between the EPA breakpoint table; the composite AQI |
| is the maximum sub-index at that station-hour. EPA's standard category |
| bands (Good ≤ 50, Moderate ≤ 100, Unhealthy for sensitive ≤ 150, |
| Unhealthy ≤ 200, Very Unhealthy ≤ 300, Hazardous ≤ 500) are applied to |
| the composite. SO₂ is not included because Jerusalem stations do not |
| report it. |
|
|
| ## Quick start |
|
|
| ```python |
| from datasets import load_dataset |
| |
| ds = load_dataset("danielrosehill/Jerusalem-Air-Quality-Shabbat", split="train") |
| df = ds.to_pandas() |
| |
| # Mean NO2 by day of week, for Bar Ilan St |
| import pandas as pd |
| no2 = df[(df.station_id == 5) & (df.pollutant == "NO2")] |
| print(no2.groupby("dow")["value"].mean()) |
| ``` |
|
|
| Or directly with pandas / pyarrow: |
|
|
| ```python |
| import pandas as pd |
| |
| # Long-format raw readings with halachic labels |
| df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/danielrosehill/Jerusalem-Air-Quality-Shabbat/data/readings.parquet") |
| |
| # Wide-format hourly table with EPA AQI + Traffic-Combustion + Photochemical indices |
| aqi = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/danielrosehill/Jerusalem-Air-Quality-Shabbat/data/aqi_hourly.parquet") |
| |
| # Composite-index summary by halachic segment |
| print(aqi.groupby("segment")[["aqi_epa", "tci", "pd_index"]].mean()) |
| ``` |
|
|
| ## Headline finding: the Jerusalem amplification factor |
|
|
| The most informative way to read this dataset is not the absolute Shabbat |
| % drop in Jerusalem (raw or deweathered), but the **ratio of the Jerusalem |
| off-day drop to the averaged London + NYC weekend drop, after controlling |
| for weather**. That ratio is the part that isn't captured anywhere else in |
| the literature: every city has a weekend cycle, but the question is how |
| much *additional* signal Jerusalem's Shabbat carries beyond it. |
|
|
| After meteorological deweathering (Random Forest with T, RH, wind, BLH, |
| pressure, precipitation; openair `deweather::buildMod` workflow): |
|
|
| | Pollutant | Jerusalem | West avg (London + NYC) | **Amplification** | |
| |---|---:|---:|---:| |
| | **NO₂** | **−34 %** | **−8 %** | **≈ 4 ×** | |
| | CO | −4 % | −4 % | ≈ 1 × | |
| | O₃ | +1 % | +2 % | ≈ 0.6 × | |
| | PM10 | −12 % | −1 % | ≈ 9 × *(small denom)* | |
| | PM2.5 | −4 % | −1 % | ≈ 7 × *(small denom)* | |
|
|
| **NO₂ at ~4× is the clean, defensible headline** because both the |
| numerator and denominator are large enough for the ratio to be robust. |
| The PM ratios are real but the Western denominators are small (London + |
| NYC weekend PM barely drops at all), so the ratios are inflated by a |
| near-zero divisor and should be reported with that caveat. |
|
|
|  |
|
|
| ### Why ~4× is plausible — what stops on Shabbat that doesn't stop on a Western weekend |
|
|
| The 4× ratio isn't well described as "Jerusalem has a stronger weekend |
| cycle." It's better described as **Shabbat being closer to a full |
| traffic-plus-construction ban than a Western weekend is**. |
|
|
| The Shabbat intervention removes essentially the entire urban NO₂ |
| inventory at once: |
|
|
| - **Private cars** — sharp reduction city-wide, near-total in observant neighbourhoods |
| - **Diesel buses** — Egged, Superbus, Dan, intercity coaches all stop completely |
| - **Light-rail and high-rise construction** — Jerusalem is in an unusually active build-out phase (Green and Blue line works, dozens of high-rise sites), all of which run diesel excavators, drills, and generators six days a week and go silent on Shabbat. Non-road mobile machinery (NRMM) is a known top-3 NO₂ source in growing cities. |
| - **Trucks and freight delivery** — near-zero |
| - **Sherut / shared taxis** — stopped in observant areas |
|
|
| A typical Western weekend removes only part of this: |
|
|
| - **London**: cars and freight reduce ~25–30% (not zero), buses run reduced schedule, *some* central-zone construction restrictions, but domestic gas heating, Heathrow aviation, and most infrastructure works continue. |
| - **New York**: traffic and freight reduce ~25–30%, but **building heating with #4/#6 fuel oil** is uniquely large in NYC's NO₂ inventory and runs continuously regardless of the day of week. JFK/LGA aviation, peaker power generation, and bus service are all weekend-unchanged. |
|
|
| So Jerusalem's Shabbat removes *commuter traffic + buses + freight + |
| construction simultaneously*, while Western weekends remove only commuter |
| traffic and some freight. A factor of ~4 between those two interventions |
| is what a back-of-envelope source apportionment would predict — and it's |
| what the deweathered data shows. |
|
|
| ### Why the other ratios sit where they do |
|
|
| - **CO ≈ 1×** because catalytic converters have pushed urban CO close to the noise floor in all three cities; whatever traffic CO remains is roughly proportional to the day's traffic reduction, and the magnitudes are all small. |
| - **O₃ ≈ 0.6×** is the *opposite* direction — Jerusalem's ozone bump on Shabbat is *smaller* than the Western weekend ozone bump despite a much larger NOx drop. This is the signature of NOx-saturated urban photochemistry: in this regime, a deeper NOx cut doesn't translate to a proportionally larger O₃ rise, because the local atmosphere flips into a different chemical regime at low NOx. |
| - **PM10 ≈ 9× and PM2.5 ≈ 7×** are real in direction but the Western denominators (London/NYC weekend PM drops of −1 to 0%) are too small for the ratio to be quantitatively stable. The right read is "Western PM doesn't have a weekend cycle, Jerusalem PM has a small but real Shabbat cycle once dust is controlled" — the construction halt is probably the dominant mechanism. |
|
|
| ### What the table predicts about Yom Kippur |
|
|
| Yom Kippur removes the residual that Shabbat doesn't reach: through-traffic |
| on Highway 1, traffic in non-observant West Jerusalem, and Arab-sector |
| traffic in East Jerusalem and the corridors that pass through it. The |
| amplification ratio for Yom Kippur should therefore be even larger than |
| for Shabbat — and the data agrees: combined PM falls 74% on YK, NOx |
| collapses to a near-floor, and composite EPA AQI itself drops to 28 (Good |
| band) which it never does on a regular Shabbat. YK is the natural |
| extension of the same source-removal logic, with the last few categories |
| finally peeled away. |
|
|
| ## Pre-deweathering Shabbat drops, Jerusalem only |
|
|
| For transparency, these are the *raw* (uncontrolled) Shabbat % drops, with |
| Friday sitting roughly half-way: |
|
|
| | Pollutant | Friday % drop vs Sun-Thu | Shabbat % drop vs Sun-Thu | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | NO | ~40 % | ~55 % (range 19–76 %) | |
| | NOx | ~34 % | ~52 % | |
| | NO₂ | ~30 % | ~47 % | |
| | Toluene | ~44 % | ~38 % | |
| | Benzene | ~25 % | ~21 % | |
| | CO | ~7 % | ~8 % | |
|
|
| Biggest Shabbat drops are in observant West-Jerusalem neighbourhoods |
| (Bezalel ~73 %, Bar Ilan ~55 %, Romema ~52 %); smallest along corridors |
| carrying significant non-observant traffic (Rockefeller Museum ~13 %, |
| Safra Square ~33 %). |
|
|
| **Particulates (PM2.5, PM10) do _not_ drop on Shabbat — they often rise.** |
| A real signal but confounded by Saharan dust intrusions and weekend |
| grilling; needs its own controlled analysis. |
|
|
|  |
|
|
| The Saturday row is dramatically lighter than Sun–Thu; Friday is clearly |
| intermediate. |
|
|
| ## Cross-city comparison |
|
|
| The same 12-month window was pulled from [OpenAQ](https://openaq.org/) for |
| **London** (3 stations) and **New York** (4 stations) and aggregated using |
| each city's *own* off-day convention. |
|
|
| **Off-day vs workweek % change, stratified by pollutant:** |
|
|
| | Pollutant | Jerusalem (Shabbat exact vs Sun–Thu) | London (Sat+Sun vs Mon–Fri) | New York (Sat+Sun vs Mon–Fri) | |
| |---|---:|---:|---:| |
| | NO₂ | **−62.4 %** | −20.0 % | −31.3 % | |
| | NO | **−62.5 %** | — | −57.1 % | |
| | NOx | **−63.4 %** | — | −39.1 % | |
| | CO | 0.0 % | −13.7 % | 0.0 % | |
| | O₃ | +5.3 % | +8.3 % | +7.1 % | |
| | PM10 | **−16.0 %** | −7.1 % | — | |
| | PM2.5 | −6.8 % | +1.4 % | +1.6 % | |
| | SO₂ | — | −45.0 % | — | |
|
|
| (Cells marked `—` are missing in OpenAQ's coverage for that station/pollutant |
| combination.) |
|
|
| **What the table shows:** |
|
|
| - **NOx-family (NO, NO₂, NOx) is where Jerusalem stands apart.** All three |
| drop ~62–63 % on Shabbat. New York's weekend drop in this family runs |
| ~31–57 % depending on species; London's NO₂ weekend drop is only −20 %. |
| Jerusalem's signal is roughly 2× New York's and 3× London's — far larger |
| than the generic secular weekend cycle. |
| - **O₃ rises slightly on off-days in every city** (~+5 to +8 %). Consistent |
| with reduced NOx scavenging when traffic emissions fall — a universal |
| photochemical signature, not a Shabbat-specific effect. |
| - **PM2.5 does not follow the traffic story.** Jerusalem shows only a |
| small drop on Shabbat (and the source's `is_shabbat` calendar-day flag |
| often shows PM2.5 *rising*). London and NYC weekend PM2.5 actually rises |
| slightly — the same paradox plays out cross-city, suggesting weekend PM |
| is dominated by non-traffic sources (cooking, dust events, secondary |
| formation) everywhere. |
| - **PM10 drops modestly in Jerusalem (−16 %) and London (−7 %)**, intermediate |
| between the strong NOx signal and the flat PM2.5 signal — coarser |
| particulates carry more road-dust and resuspended traffic dust component |
| than PM2.5. |
|
|
|  |
|
|
| **Bottom line:** The Shabbat effect in Jerusalem is real, large, and |
| specifically a **traffic-emissions** story — the gap between Jerusalem and |
| the secular control cities is widest in NO/NO₂/NOx and narrowest (or |
| flipped) in PM2.5 and O₃. This pattern is consistent with a step-change |
| reduction in vehicle activity rather than any kind of generalised industrial |
| or commercial slowdown. |
|
|
| ## AQI vs Traffic-Combustion Index |
|
|
| A reading of `aqi_hourly.parquet` by halachic segment exposes the headline |
| paradox: composite EPA AQI **barely moves** between workweek and Shabbat |
| because particulate matter dominates the index, and PM in Jerusalem is |
| driven by long-range dust as much as by local emissions. |
|
|
| | Segment | EPA AQI | Canadian AQHI | TCI (z) | PD-Index (z) | |
| |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| |
| | Workweek (Sun–Thu) | 64 | 4.7 | −0.10 | −0.05 | |
| | Pre-Shabbat (2h) | 63 | 4.7 | −0.58 | +0.20 | |
| | **Shabbat** | **67** | **4.4** | **−0.61** | **+0.15** | |
| | Post-Havdalah (2h) | 69 | 4.5 | −0.17 | +0.06 | |
| | Yom Tov | 71 | 4.1 | −0.66 | +0.03 | |
| | **Yom Kippur** | **28** | **3.0** | **−0.90** | **−0.55** | |
|
|
| Both standard composite indices — EPA's max-based AQI and Canada's |
| additive AQHI — are dominated by the Jerusalem PM2.5 baseline (which is |
| itself dominated by long-range dust transport). EPA AQI is essentially |
| flat on Shabbat (64→67); AQHI moves a little (4.7→4.4) but not in |
| proportion to the underlying NOx drop, because PM2.5 is the largest term |
| in its additive sum here. The Traffic-Combustion Index plunges by half a |
| standard deviation on Shabbat (and almost a full standard deviation on |
| Yom Kippur), while the Photochemical/Dust Index drifts the other way — |
| exactly as the NOx-saturated urban photochemistry would predict. |
|
|
| **The takeaway**: standard composites are calibrated for cities where |
| PM2.5 sources are mostly local. In Jerusalem they become "dust meters" |
| that are structurally blind to traffic-emission interventions. An |
| activity-attributable index like TCI is the right tool for evaluating |
| this kind of natural experiment. |
|
|
| ## Halachic time-window methodology |
|
|
| The dataset ships two Shabbat flags: a coarse calendar one (`is_shabbat`, |
| all of Saturday) and an exact halachic one (`shabbat_or_chag_exact`, |
| candle-lighting → havdalah). Real analysis should use the latter, and |
| extend it. The companion analysis repo derives a 6-flag schema from the |
| Hebcal export bundled in this dataset (`hebcal-jerusalem.json`): |
|
|
| | Flag | Window | |
| |------|--------| |
| | `is_shabbat` | candle-lighting → havdalah, weekly Shabbatot only | |
| | `is_yom_tov` | onset → conclusion of biblical chagim with driving prohibition (incl. Yom Kippur) | |
| | `is_yom_kippur` | exact YK window — broken out, since YK is the cleanest natural experiment in the year | |
| | `is_pre_shabbat` | 2 hours **before** candle-lighting — captures the erev-Shabbat shopping rush | |
| | `is_post_havdalah` | 2 hours **after** havdalah — captures the post-Shabbat rebound | |
|
|
| Plus a derived `segment` column resolving these into a single |
| mutually-exclusive bucket: `weekday`, `pre_shabbat`, `shabbat`, |
| `post_havdalah`, `yom_tov`, `yom_kippur` (priority order, highest wins). |
|
|
| **Time anchors (Jerusalem, via Hebcal):** |
|
|
| - Candle-lighting (Shabbat & chag onset): 40 minutes before sunset (Jerusalem custom) |
| - Havdalah (Shabbat & chag conclusion): *tzeit hakochavim* (~3 medium stars) |
|
|
| **Why the custom segmentation matters:** the naïve "Saturday vs Tuesday" |
| comparison under-states the effect because (a) calendar Saturday includes |
| the post-Shabbat rebound after tzeit, and (b) calendar Friday includes a |
| full normal weekday morning rush. The exact halachic windows eliminate |
| both contamination sources. |
|
|
| **Chol HaMoed is intentionally not flagged** — driving is permitted, so |
| those days are indistinguishable from weekdays for the traffic hypothesis. |
|
|
| **Yom Kippur is broken out** because near-universal observance among |
| Israelis (including secular Israelis who drive on regular Shabbat) means |
| the traffic drop is steeper than for any other day — see the 72-hour case |
| study figure in the analysis repo. |
|
|
| In the 12-month window: **50 Shabbatot, 9 Yom Tov windows, 1 Yom Kippur**. |
|
|
| ## Cross-city methodology |
|
|
| Because the secular weekly cycle differs from Jerusalem's, the control |
| cities use their own convention: |
|
|
| | City | Workweek | Off-days | |
| |------|----------|----------| |
| | Jerusalem | Sun–Thu (segment = `weekday`, daytime 07–22) | Shabbat (segment = `shabbat`, exact halachic window) | |
| | London / New York | Mon–Fri | Sat + Sun | |
|
|
| The cross-city headline metric — **off-day % change vs workweek** — uses |
| each city's own convention. This is conceptually apples-to-apples ("off-days |
| vs work-days for the local population"), even though calendar boundaries |
| differ. NO₂ values were converted from ppb (Jerusalem source) to µg/m³ |
| (OpenAQ convention; 1 ppb ≈ 1.88 µg/m³ at 25 °C, 1 atm) for overlay charts. |
|
|
| OpenAQ control stations used: |
| - **London**: 148, 154, 155 |
| - **New York**: 384, 626, 857, 1122 |
|
|
| ## Figure set |
|
|
| All figures available in [`figures/`](figures/) and in the analysis repo: |
|
|
| 1. `01_jerusalem_hour_of_day.png` — NOx / NO₂ / PM2.5 hourly curves |
| 2. `02_jerusalem_segment_bars.png` — Per-station % change vs workweek by segment |
| 3. `03_jerusalem_dow_hour_heatmap.png` — NOx by day-of-week × hour |
| 4. `04_jerusalem_yom_kippur.png` — 72-hour line plot bracketing YK 2025 |
| 5. `05_jerusalem_pm_paradox.png` — NOx falls, PM2.5 doesn't |
| 6. `06_jerusalem_friday_split.png` — Friday's intermediate signal concentrates in afternoon |
| 7. `07_jerusalem_segment_distribution.png` — Box plot by halachic segment |
| 8. `08_cross_city_no2_weekly.png` — NO₂ day-of-week curve, three cities overlaid |
| 9. `09_cross_city_offday_drop.png` — Headline cross-city panel |
|
|
| Reproducible via the scripts in |
| [`danielrosehill/JLM-Air-Quality-Analysis`](https://github.com/danielrosehill/JLM-Air-Quality-Analysis): |
|
|
| ```bash |
| python scripts/relabel.py # 6-flag halachic relabel |
| python scripts/build_controls.py # OpenAQ -> tidy control parquet |
| python scripts/generate_figures.py # All 9 figures |
| ``` |
|
|
| Per-station summary tables are also in `analysis/` of this dataset; full |
| preliminary write-up is in `analysis/FINDINGS.md`. |
|
|
| ## Caveats and known limitations |
|
|
| - **Two Shabbat flags are provided.** `is_shabbat` is the naïve calendar |
| Saturday (Sun=6, Sat=5) and is included for backwards compatibility. |
| `shabbat_or_chag_exact` is the **recommended** flag — it uses Hebcal's |
| Jerusalem-specific candle-lighting (Friday eve, 40 minutes before |
| sunset) and havdalah (≈42 minutes after sunset, three medium stars) |
| times, and also covers Yom Tov days. There is a single set of |
| Hebcal times applied to all stations; intra-Jerusalem variation is |
| under one minute and not material for hourly analysis. |
| - **Jewish holidays are flagged but not removed.** Use `is_yom_tov` to |
| exclude the seven major Israeli yamim tovim from your weekday |
| baseline; use `holiday` to filter by name. **Yom Kippur in particular |
| is the cleanest air day of the year** (Wed 2025-10-01 was YK 2025); |
| leaving it in inflates the apparent cleanness of the weekday baseline. |
| - **Sensor validity flag is trusted as-is.** Only `valid: true` readings |
| are included; the source system's QC decisions have not been |
| re-verified. |
| - **Two stations have partial coverage**: 623 (Atarot Eden) starts |
| 2025-08-06; 635 (Bezalel St) starts 2026-02-05. Their statistics use |
| fewer Saturdays. |
| - **Station 509** (Malchei Israel) is listed as active in the source |
| metadata but returned no historical data over this window and is |
| omitted from `data/readings.parquet`. |
| - **Region filter:** stations were selected by `regionId == 8` in the |
| source system. Two stations on the periphery of the region (Highway 16 |
| and Atarot) sit outside the historical city core but are functionally |
| part of the Jerusalem network. |
|
|
| ## License |
|
|
| The underlying data is published by the Israeli Ministry of Environmental |
| Protection as a public-information service. This dataset is shared under |
| **CC-BY-4.0** with attribution to the Ministry as the original data |
| source. |
|
|
| ## Versioning |
|
|
| - **v1** (2026-04-28): initial release. 12 months × 5-min × 12 stations, |
| long-form parquet. |
| - **v1.1** (2026-04-28): adds Hebcal-derived columns |
| `shabbat_or_chag_exact`, `is_yom_tov`, and `holiday` for |
| Jerusalem-precise temporal filtering. Underlying readings unchanged. |
|
|
| ## External data sources |
|
|
| - **Air-quality readings:** Israeli Ministry of Environmental Protection |
| (<https://air.sviva.gov.il/>). |
| - **Shabbat candle / havdalah times and Jewish-calendar metadata:** |
| [Hebcal](https://www.hebcal.com/), public REST API, |
| Jerusalem (geonameid 281184). |
|
|