Datasets:

electricsheepafrica
/

africa-synth-governance-public-debt-management-all

country stringclasses 12 values	year int64 2.02k 2.03k	scenario stringclasses 1 value	debt_to_gdp_pct float64 7.82 126	external_debt_pct float64 5 95	domestic_debt_pct float64 5 95	debt_service_ratio_pct float64 1 64.4	concessional_debt_pct float64 0 95	average_maturity_years float64 1 33	average_interest_rate_pct float64 0.1 15.5	debt_sustainability_rating int64 2 5	refinancing_risk_score float64 0 96.4	primary_balance_pct float64 -12.13 6.87	fiscal_space_score float64 0 71.2	gdp_growth_pct float64 -2.29 14	inflation_pct float64 0 47.7	reserves_months_imports float64 0.1 11.6	revenue_to_gdp_pct float64 2.21 38.5	expenditure_to_gdp_pct float64 6.88 40.2
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	41.76	48	52	32.7	14.39	5.9	7.69	4	38.7	-2.97	23.8	2.98	14.59	8.32	8.67	12.13
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	50.81	35.13	64.87	29.84	22.33	10.26	7.43	4	36	-2.78	16.1	2.18	22.89	6.77	6.86	11.3
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	50.19	45.3	54.7	30.15	47.13	7.69	6.73	4	30.9	-3.72	18	3.74	22.52	6.83	6.24	10.35
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	52.46	46.35	53.65	24.67	31.86	8.73	7.83	4	37.9	-1.19	24.2	3.27	20.72	7.1	7.93	13.26
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	46.08	38.24	61.76	24.81	27.8	11.49	6.2	4	18.1	-1.05	21.4	0.98	16.66	7.24	8.38	13.42
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	45.91	38.3	61.7	32.29	28.47	5.95	5.8	4	37	-3.88	17.8	3.6	18.57	8.04	6.86	12.32
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	46.14	45.65	54.35	24.69	27.1	7.74	5.71	4	22.6	-1.77	18.5	2.44	18.05	7.72	8.17	13.33
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	45.46	41.36	58.64	19.56	18.42	5.85	6	4	38.7	-1.9	37.6	1.91	16.49	8.95	6.97	13.48
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	46.77	34.4	65.6	26.3	36.72	5.05	8.15	4	39.3	-2.14	15.7	2.29	12.22	7.11	6.71	12.47
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	57.61	40.09	59.91	22.88	31.43	8.94	9.54	4	29.5	-1.25	33.3	3.43	23.85	5.22	6.54	10.15
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	39.74	47.08	52.92	26.89	18.23	6.47	7.97	4	31.5	-1.24	36.5	5.4	29.66	7.62	6.02	7.74
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	43.12	38.68	61.32	24.94	28.87	10.63	7.74	4	30.5	-2.74	25.8	1.76	11.3	6.27	7.42	15.54
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	53.9	38.01	61.99	22.08	22.28	7.05	10.69	4	36.8	-3.73	17.2	4.01	14.39	8.4	8.08	11.69
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	44.07	45.57	54.43	25.73	20.2	5.94	7.76	4	38.4	-0.13	28.7	3.19	17.53	7.43	9.46	12.44
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	54.64	45.43	54.57	35.68	31.47	6.05	5.45	4	32.6	-0.02	32.2	5.07	17.28	6.43	9.69	9.79
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	51.86	38.84	61.16	27.97	28.69	9.18	9.61	4	31	-2.36	10.4	3.77	9.8	6.93	6.24	9.56
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	46	49.33	50.67	21.37	30.25	7.53	7.01	4	27.3	-1	18.5	3.65	23.35	6.77	6.46	11.55
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	49.06	33.32	66.68	28.45	31.83	13.53	10.32	4	25.9	-3.78	30.7	2.66	12.15	6.11	7.97	14.41
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	44.08	24.82	75.18	27.19	21.5	7.44	6.18	4	26.8	-2.64	28.4	0.89	12.13	10.19	5.57	9.81
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	65.43	32.63	67.37	26.16	32.73	11.96	6.02	4	42.3	-2.87	17	3.93	19.74	6.44	7.3	9.25
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	46.4	43.86	56.14	25.22	33.77	10.53	7.73	4	29.4	-1.97	34.2	3.06	18	5.92	7.97	11.81
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	57.44	45.09	54.91	24.18	21.1	10.88	7.89	4	37.4	-1.78	17.5	0.91	21.71	7.68	5.83	11.06
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	48.31	39.66	60.34	27.48	27.98	8.81	9.71	4	34.7	-6.35	21	2.72	18.71	7.44	6.94	8.49
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	58.36	29.73	70.27	32.32	27.37	8.38	5.92	4	31.6	-3	13.2	4.56	20.33	9.6	9.27	12.88
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	50.63	48.62	51.38	26.52	30.53	7.11	8.98	4	40.5	-4.27	30	3.94	17.24	8.76	8.63	15.64
Nigeria	2,019	baseline	38.57	41.46	58.54	22.14	25.85	11.52	8.46	4	32.7	-3.55	29.8	1.78	18.13	5.18	6.49	12.62
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	51.65	23.67	76.33	29.52	30.58	9.33	9.92	4	35.8	-5.59	26.5	2.29	20.36	4.63	9.71	12.74
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	44.57	48.51	51.49	33.34	31.86	8.97	7.91	4	37.1	-3.8	21.4	2.82	17.39	7.58	9	9.88
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	56.89	36.05	63.95	23.89	31.62	10.19	7.52	4	41.1	-0.51	17.7	4.03	21.37	7.83	10.99	11.59
Nigeria	2,019	baseline	57.63	38.34	61.66	28.54	40.48	5.3	5.62	4	39.9	-4.9	11.8	2.05	19.76	7.79	7.91	9.17
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	48.33	38.23	61.77	30.3	35.62	8.78	8.64	4	30.8	-2.16	21.7	3.64	15.18	6.73	7.8	13.64
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	51.13	39.87	60.13	27.41	36.64	4.51	5.56	4	42.2	-4.72	17	0.2	15.29	8.12	7.07	12.4
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	55.97	41.45	58.55	34.77	30.74	6.83	6.61	4	28.4	-4.72	13.1	1.93	16.57	8.21	10.08	10.08
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	41.76	45.8	54.2	27.34	15.35	10.36	6.59	4	25.5	-3.3	27.6	1.72	15.38	7.64	7.22	12.66
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	55.92	39.26	60.74	20.62	38.54	7.84	9.17	4	30.6	-1.92	36.8	2.84	19.4	9.93	10.62	12.14
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	54.46	35.23	64.77	29.67	29.79	9.13	6.25	4	29.2	-4.88	18.7	0.51	13.53	6.31	7.06	15.87
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	42.23	44.78	55.22	25.96	27.73	8.87	8.43	4	35.9	-3.01	22.3	4.28	13.43	7.01	11.4	12.45
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	48.55	46.65	53.35	27.72	28.64	6.94	8.15	4	36	-3.78	31.7	3.8	22.34	7.55	7.07	12.91
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	53.61	27.35	72.65	26.32	14.07	5.51	9.55	4	41.8	-1.16	23.5	2.14	11.99	2.55	6.68	16.84
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	44.64	45.72	54.28	20.2	27.62	8.7	7.37	4	39.3	-1.31	34.4	3.41	20.67	5.97	8.85	15.26
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	42.67	52.69	47.31	27.04	41.23	7.61	9.68	4	28.6	-2.3	32.5	3.31	24.26	6.46	6.09	11.1
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	38.61	47.1	52.9	25.31	39.18	3.71	6.32	4	28.2	-5.03	16.8	2.01	18.99	6.73	7.12	11.68
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	41.95	47.65	52.35	31.31	33.08	9.61	7.94	4	31.6	0.55	26.8	2.9	16.77	5.87	5.95	9.51
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	44.92	34.89	65.11	27.65	32.67	8.6	6.35	4	32.7	-1.15	21.2	3.89	17.36	6.02	8.32	12.38
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	47.59	44.1	55.9	23.5	31.52	5.59	9.5	4	27.3	-0.63	23.3	2.7	19.45	3.39	5.77	11.41
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	52.29	57.98	42.02	22.12	23.3	8.97	9.92	4	35.3	-4.33	21.8	3.3	25.29	4.52	5.58	11.15
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	52.88	43.93	56.07	19.13	34.12	7.34	9.41	4	30.4	-3.44	20.2	2.24	20.16	8.14	8.17	8.63
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	41.79	43.88	56.12	20.88	33.57	6.89	5.58	4	38.6	-1.43	26.8	3.29	15.54	9.18	6.84	12.06
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	44.28	45.77	54.23	25.33	26.71	11.23	5.94	4	29.7	-6.12	18.6	4.93	28.2	6.39	4.59	11.38
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	46.86	33.09	66.91	30.9	34.2	5.51	8.55	4	39.3	0.58	34.8	3.21	16.65	6.79	8.42	8.54
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	45.66	56.78	43.22	27.13	43.34	6.29	8.38	4	36.6	-2.02	30.6	1.96	18.71	8.82	7.01	8.62
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	42.59	39.26	60.74	27.59	16.35	5.27	8.22	4	41.3	-3.28	23.1	-0.08	21.14	7.41	6.43	9.37
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	50.1	61.06	38.94	30.1	33.1	8.17	8.73	4	31.1	-1.56	4.7	4.5	15.91	6.35	6.78	13.58
Nigeria	2,019	baseline	45.25	38.6	61.4	29.57	28.03	10.4	4.12	4	39.2	-3.74	31.9	2.06	8.72	5.55	6.13	11.6
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	46.53	33.75	66.25	27.72	38.39	6.55	6.13	4	35.6	-1.66	27.9	2.73	20.59	6.98	8.55	9.93
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	46.74	32.27	67.73	20.18	35.49	7.8	5.97	4	33.7	-2.64	24.3	4.35	8.88	4.76	6.12	14.92
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	52.6	32.88	67.12	22.4	33.58	8.62	8.32	4	27	-2.78	27.1	3.33	18.63	8.17	8.71	8.76
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	54.01	51.5	48.5	22.9	15.12	8.7	8.9	4	47.2	0.2	34.3	3.62	16.51	5.66	7.52	11.4
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	60.29	56.28	43.72	33.68	22.63	10.21	8.46	5	40.1	-1.84	29.5	4.5	20.54	8.11	8.46	12.68
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	48.5	37.55	62.45	21.6	43.45	11.96	9.54	4	28.2	-2.12	33	4.62	18.05	7.3	5.86	12.79
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	40.18	41.59	58.41	27.6	44.38	10.29	7.52	4	26.1	-2.13	30.2	3.05	17.19	5.38	7.27	10.51
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	51.07	45.13	54.87	19.07	29.02	10.49	9.09	4	39	-0.96	29.6	3.05	14.62	5.37	8.02	12.76
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	54.6	40.94	59.06	21.78	27.45	8.93	7.2	4	28.5	-3.37	24.7	3.3	15.98	6.06	7.97	11.2
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	49.64	32.88	67.12	25.59	41.5	6.18	4.33	4	30.9	-5.29	24.6	3.03	18.12	6.82	9.32	9.32
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	57.37	32.98	67.02	26.1	23.98	6.71	7.01	4	40.4	-0.36	32.8	5.2	16.66	9.86	7.55	15.51
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	48.79	44.92	55.08	43.89	36.81	7.09	8.95	5	38.1	-3.04	13.7	2.41	21.63	7.05	7.92	12.03
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	50.55	26.5	73.5	31.33	22.14	5.62	7.41	4	42.6	-2.37	19.1	2.17	21.32	4.99	6.89	10.83
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	49.67	33.94	66.06	31.62	30.5	4.72	4.56	4	37.7	-2.52	35.6	2.73	17.59	6.96	7.84	13.9
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	40.97	33.25	66.75	29.44	39.96	7.64	3.75	4	27.6	-5.06	18.5	2	15.77	6.39	7.56	11.38
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	43.94	35.1	64.9	30.39	17.71	9.28	7.65	4	39.3	-2.72	21.9	4.91	15.51	10.09	7.16	9.45
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	41.54	35.99	64.01	29.99	34.44	7.26	8.98	4	41.1	-0.76	21.4	4.72	20.12	9.05	4.68	11.36
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	48.72	37.43	62.57	27.17	45.06	8.16	8.12	4	23.9	-2.85	39.4	3.09	18.02	7.67	9.25	15.29
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	51.54	32.79	67.21	27.56	37.52	10.23	7.82	4	34.7	-1.17	15.2	3.59	22.8	7.43	6.97	12.67
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	50.3	12.81	87.19	19.38	33.61	9.46	5.76	4	31.4	-3.57	24.8	4.64	16.06	10.36	7.5	12.82
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	48.79	33.98	66.02	27.45	29.72	5.77	7.12	4	39.2	-3.61	28.6	4.11	18.14	6.58	7.34	12.45
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	42	33.67	66.33	33.52	26.7	5.67	8.17	4	33.1	-1.8	30.9	1.16	18.92	8.1	8.06	13.26
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	49.99	39.58	60.42	25.59	36.96	11.46	10.19	4	31.3	-0.53	24.6	2.87	19.41	8.15	7.68	12.26
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	47.64	36.17	63.83	25.93	35.07	8.51	8.01	4	28.7	-1.49	40.8	2.55	21.02	7.57	5.65	14.88
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	38.07	33.64	66.36	22.89	30.42	7.95	6.99	4	37	-1.57	27.5	3.41	19.26	7.61	8.42	8.42
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	34.92	42.29	57.71	27.98	38.36	10.88	7.8	4	14.4	-3.25	26.9	3.58	15.89	7	8.98	10.88
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	52.06	34.36	65.64	32.87	35.59	8.7	6.36	4	32	-3.79	16.7	2.35	20.17	5.57	8.16	9.52
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	48.66	61.56	38.44	21.11	41.78	8.8	8.12	4	14.3	-2.32	28.4	3.53	17.39	9.18	6.82	14.26
Nigeria	2,020	baseline	47.64	33.42	66.58	30.28	41.56	8.35	7.2	4	31	-4.17	23.2	2.72	11.63	5.63	7.84	14.64
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	44.48	53.48	46.52	29.22	28.79	9.37	7.59	4	29.4	-2.33	26	2.51	12.41	4.68	8.48	11.45
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	48.05	48.36	51.64	28.9	24.75	10.95	9.87	4	28.2	-1.76	33	4.17	22.97	8.7	8.42	13.2
Nigeria	2,024	baseline	41.42	47.61	52.39	21.22	23.64	11.11	8.76	4	28.9	-0.27	36.1	2.67	13.39	6.64	7.65	12.16
Nigeria	2,019	baseline	45.83	44.82	55.18	23.06	33.6	8.51	6.38	4	35.8	-2.85	29.4	2.78	16.92	9.66	7.35	11.51
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	42.63	39.9	60.1	24.57	41.05	8.17	9.43	4	26	-2.41	29.7	3.04	17.64	7.01	10.08	10.08
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	44.74	42.12	57.88	31.45	33.78	7.73	9.03	4	34.8	-0.95	26.1	3.22	21.85	7.41	6.66	13.4
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	48.01	53.78	46.22	15.75	18.66	6.13	6.96	4	36.1	-2.88	33.4	1.19	14.06	5.71	11.19	15.6
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	45.82	32.81	67.19	18.46	29.06	6.5	7.37	4	34	-4.9	31.1	2.09	18.59	7.55	8.13	9.36
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	43.2	47.06	52.94	27.95	18.99	7.87	8.05	4	29.8	-1.58	26.3	2.83	24.13	8.51	7.12	13.5
Nigeria	2,021	baseline	59.76	32.18	67.82	23.37	41.88	6.38	5.52	4	31.6	-3.23	24.9	3.5	17.59	6.02	6.49	10.58
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	61.69	44.38	55.62	32.43	26.09	8.13	6.43	5	38.4	-6.48	5.1	1.35	10.76	3.63	5.71	14.65
Nigeria	2,025	baseline	55.74	45.29	54.71	31.91	22.79	9.55	8.59	4	31.7	-3.36	12.1	3.67	20.26	6.18	5.82	9.63
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	34.29	42.69	57.31	29.64	23.66	8.55	8.36	4	29.4	-1.57	41.3	4.86	23.11	5.5	10.03	10.94
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	48.41	38.7	61.3	18.96	28.63	5.38	8.95	4	37.8	-0.22	34	2.04	19.21	5.91	6.56	13.55
Nigeria	2,022	baseline	58.44	38.14	61.86	33	30.78	10.09	6.83	4	28.6	-2.57	32.4	2.86	14.66	7.99	8.48	13.19
Nigeria	2,018	baseline	56.7	39	61	29.87	25.01	8.55	6.6	4	41.7	-0.07	34.6	3.44	17.13	8.79	4.24	7.97
Nigeria	2,023	baseline	48.36	44	56	21.37	29.81	12.51	8.74	4	29.6	-2.25	30	2.47	16.42	3.81	7.89	13.69

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

⚠️ Synthetic dataset — Parameterized from published SSA literature, not real observations. Not suitable for empirical analysis or policy inference.

African Public Debt Management Dataset

Overview

This dataset provides synthetic public debt management indicators for 12 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries across 3 policy scenarios (baseline, debt consolidation, debt distress), totaling 29,988 records with 19 variables per record.

The data is parameterized from published indicators and stylized facts reported by the IMF, World Bank, AfDB, and UNCTAD, capturing realistic distributions of debt-to-GDP ratios, debt composition, debt service burdens, concessional financing shares, and macroeconomic fundamentals.

Countries

Country	Region	Debt Profile
Nigeria	West Africa	Moderate debt/GDP (~40-55%), high service-to-revenue, Eurobond-dependent
Kenya	East Africa	Elevated debt/GDP (~67%), refinancing pressure, infrastructure-driven
Ghana	West Africa	Post-restructuring (~44%), IMF program, was in debt distress (>80%)
South Africa	Southern Africa	High debt/GDP (~78%), predominantly domestic, SOE risks
DRC	Central Africa	Low debt/GDP (~24%), heavily concessional, IDA-eligible
Ethiopia	East Africa	Low-moderate (~28%), restructuring under G20 Common Framework
Tanzania	East Africa	Moderate (~46%), concessional-heavy, fiscal discipline
Rwanda	East Africa	Rising rapidly (~85%), concessional-heavy, ambitious spending
Mozambique	Southern Africa	Very high (~97%), debt distress, hidden debt legacy
Zambia	Southern Africa	Post-restructuring (~70%), was in debt distress
Senegal	West Africa	Rising (~65%), oil/gas transition, infrastructure investment
Côte d'Ivoire	West Africa	Moderate (~56%), infrastructure-driven, first IDA Eurobond issuer

Scenarios

Baseline

Current trajectory reflecting prevailing fiscal policies, debt composition, and macroeconomic conditions. Debt-to-GDP ratios average ~58%, with debt service consuming ~25-30% of revenue. Years: 2018–2025.

Debt Consolidation

Favorable policy path: fiscal tightening, extended maturities, increased concessional borrowing, lower interest rates, stronger growth. Debt-to-GDP falls ~15%, debt service ratio drops ~25%. Years: 2022–2030.

Debt Distress

Adverse scenario: rising debt stocks, refinancing difficulties, loss of concessional access, higher interest rates, weaker growth, rising inflation. Debt-to-GDP rises ~25%, debt service ratio increases ~50%. Years: 2020–2028.

Variable Descriptions

Core Debt Indicators

debt_to_gdp_pct: Total government debt as percentage of GDP. World Bank/IMF threshold of 55% used for low-income countries; many SSA countries exceed this.
external_debt_pct: Share of total public debt owed to external creditors (multilateral, bilateral, private). SSA average ~42% of total debt stock.
domestic_debt_pct: Share held by domestic creditors (banks, pension funds, central bank). Complement of external_debt_pct.
debt_service_ratio_pct: Total debt service (principal + interest) as percentage of government revenue. SSA median ~18.7% for external debt service alone (UNCTAD 2024); many countries exceed 30%.

Debt Composition & Terms

concessional_debt_pct: Share of external debt on concessional terms (below-market interest, long grace periods). IDA-eligible countries typically >50%; market-accessing countries <30%.
average_maturity_years: Weighted average remaining maturity. Shorter maturity = higher rollover risk. Concessional loans: 15-30 years; Eurobonds: 5-10 years.
average_interest_rate_pct: Weighted average effective rate. Concessional: 0.5-2%; commercial: 5-10%; Eurobonds: 6-12%.

Risk & Sustainability

debt_sustainability_rating: Composite rating 1-5 based on debt-to-GDP, debt service ratio, concessionality, and interest rates. 1=low risk, 3=moderate risk, 5=debt distress. Based on IMF-World Bank DSF methodology.
refinancing_risk_score: Score 0-100 capturing rollover risk from maturity structure, debt level, and concessionality.
fiscal_space_score: Score 0-100 capturing room for counter-cyclical spending based on primary balance, debt level, revenue mobilization, and debt service burden.

Fiscal & Macro

primary_balance_pct: Fiscal balance excluding interest payments (% of GDP). Negative = deficit.
gdp_growth_pct: Real GDP growth. SSA average ~3.5-4% pre-COVID, recovering post-2020.
inflation_pct: Consumer price inflation. Varies widely: 3-5% (WAEMU) to 20%+ (Ethiopia, Ghana).
reserves_months_imports: Foreign exchange reserves in months of import cover. <3 months = vulnerability threshold.
revenue_to_gdp_pct: Government revenue/GDP. SSA average ~16%, well below OECD ~34%. Critical constraint.
expenditure_to_gdp_pct: Government expenditure/GDP.

Data Sources & Parameterization

Parameters derived from:

IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa (April 2025) — median debt-to-GDP <60%, debt stabilization trends
World Bank International Debt Report 2025 — LMIC external debt stocks, service ratios, creditor composition
AfDB "State of Play of Debt Burden in Africa 2024" — debt sustainability assessments, liquidity indicators
UNCTAD external debt sustainability data — SSA debt service at 18.7% of revenue (3× 2014 levels)
ONE Data "African Debt" (Feb 2025) — 21 low-income African countries in/at risk of debt distress
Debt Service Watch 2024 — SSA spending 55% of revenue on debt service

Key stylized facts embedded in parameters:

SSA aggregate debt-to-GDP ~61% (2024), with wide country dispersion (24% DRC to 97% Mozambique)
Debt service consuming 15-55% of government revenue across the region
Commercial debt share rising from 20% to 43% of total since 2000 (AfDB)
25+ African countries carrying excess debt or high risk (AfDB)
Concessional financing declining as countries access capital markets

Intended Use

Debt sustainability analysis — Train models to predict debt distress risk
Fiscal policy simulation — Evaluate consolidation vs. expansionary scenarios
Macroeconomic forecasting — Model debt trajectory under different growth/inflation assumptions
Development finance research — Study concessional vs. commercial borrowing tradeoffs
ML benchmarking — Classification (sustainability rating), regression (debt ratios), scenario analysis

Limitations

Synthetic data: Not a substitute for official national accounts or IMF Article IV data
Cross-sectional stylization: Each row is an independent draw, not a time series per country
No bilateral/multilateral creditor-level detail: Concessional share is aggregate
No currency composition: Exchange rate effects modeled implicitly through scenario shifts
No domestic debt detail: Treasury bills, bonds, and central bank financing not disaggregated

Citation

If you use this dataset, please cite:

@dataset{african_public_debt_management_2026,
  title={African Public Debt Management Synthetic Dataset},
  author={Electric Sheep Africa},
  year={2026},
  url={https://huggingface.co/datasets/electricsheepafrica/african-public-debt-management},
  license={CC-BY-4.0}
}

License

CC BY 4.0 — You may share and adapt with attribution.

Downloads last month: 61