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The dataset generation failed
Error code: DatasetGenerationError
Exception: CastError
Message: Couldn't cast
condition_id: string
bundle_day: timestamp[s]
instance_id: string
event_cluster_id: string
cluster_source: string
split: string
n_posts: int64
first_post_time: timestamp[s]
followers_max: int64
engagement_sum: int64
engagement_max: int64
max_final_grade: int64
tweet_ids: list<item: int64>
child 0, item: int64
price_d: double
price_1d: double
price_3d: double
price_7d: double
delta_1d: double
delta_3d: double
delta_7d: double
horizon_curve: struct<1d: double, 3d: double, 7d: double>
child 0, 1d: double
child 1, 3d: double
child 2, 7d: double
sigma_14d: double
sigma_n_obs: int64
z_1d: double
z_3d: double
z_7d: double
direction_label: string
magnitude_bucket: string
confound_1d: bool
confound_3d: bool
confound_7d: bool
confound_flag: bool
magnitude_tercile_1: double
magnitude_tercile_2: double
label_version: string
created_at: string
tweet_count: int64
linked_tweet_count: int64
max_link_confidence: double
market_created_at: string
avg_link_confidence: double
in_3d_share: double
in_3d_tweet_count: int64
market_group_id: string
question: string
interest_label: string
domain: null
post_timestamps: list<item: timestamp[s]>
child 0, item: timestamp[s]
score: double
description_char_len: int64
dataset_version: string
feature_max_time: timestamp[s]
description: string
question_char_len: int64
event_group_id: string
market_slug: string
category: string
burst_duration_hours: double
market_end_at: string
unique_user_count: int64
event_end_at: timestamp[s]
creation_cohort_month: timestamp[s]
event_start_at: timestamp[s]
text_similarity: double
to
{'dataset_version': Value('string'), 'condition_id': Value('string'), 'event_group_id': Value('string'), 'market_group_id': Value('string'), 'split': Value('string'), 'market_created_at': Value('string'), 'market_end_at': Value('string'), 'market_slug': Value('string'), 'event_start_at': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'event_end_at': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'feature_max_time': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'tweet_ids': List(Value('int64')), 'post_timestamps': List(Value('timestamp[s]')), 'creation_cohort_month': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'question': Value('string'), 'description': Value('string'), 'category': Value('string'), 'domain': Value('null'), 'question_char_len': Value('int64'), 'description_char_len': Value('int64'), 'score': Value('float64'), 'linked_tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'avg_link_confidence': Value('float64'), 'max_link_confidence': Value('float64'), 'text_similarity': Value('float64'), 'tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'unique_user_count': Value('int64'), 'burst_duration_hours': Value('float64'), 'in_3d_tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'in_3d_share': Value('float64'), 'interest_label': Value('string')}
because column names don't match
Traceback: Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1816, in _prepare_split_single
for key, table in generator:
^^^^^^^^^
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 613, in wrapped
for item in generator(*args, **kwargs):
~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 343, in _generate_tables
self._cast_table(pa_table, json_field_paths=json_field_paths),
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 132, in _cast_table
pa_table = table_cast(pa_table, self.info.features.arrow_schema)
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2369, in table_cast
return cast_table_to_schema(table, schema)
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2297, in cast_table_to_schema
raise CastError(
...<3 lines>...
)
datasets.table.CastError: Couldn't cast
condition_id: string
bundle_day: timestamp[s]
instance_id: string
event_cluster_id: string
cluster_source: string
split: string
n_posts: int64
first_post_time: timestamp[s]
followers_max: int64
engagement_sum: int64
engagement_max: int64
max_final_grade: int64
tweet_ids: list<item: int64>
child 0, item: int64
price_d: double
price_1d: double
price_3d: double
price_7d: double
delta_1d: double
delta_3d: double
delta_7d: double
horizon_curve: struct<1d: double, 3d: double, 7d: double>
child 0, 1d: double
child 1, 3d: double
child 2, 7d: double
sigma_14d: double
sigma_n_obs: int64
z_1d: double
z_3d: double
z_7d: double
direction_label: string
magnitude_bucket: string
confound_1d: bool
confound_3d: bool
confound_7d: bool
confound_flag: bool
magnitude_tercile_1: double
magnitude_tercile_2: double
label_version: string
created_at: string
tweet_count: int64
linked_tweet_count: int64
max_link_confidence: double
market_created_at: string
avg_link_confidence: double
in_3d_share: double
in_3d_tweet_count: int64
market_group_id: string
question: string
interest_label: string
domain: null
post_timestamps: list<item: timestamp[s]>
child 0, item: timestamp[s]
score: double
description_char_len: int64
dataset_version: string
feature_max_time: timestamp[s]
description: string
question_char_len: int64
event_group_id: string
market_slug: string
category: string
burst_duration_hours: double
market_end_at: string
unique_user_count: int64
event_end_at: timestamp[s]
creation_cohort_month: timestamp[s]
event_start_at: timestamp[s]
text_similarity: double
to
{'dataset_version': Value('string'), 'condition_id': Value('string'), 'event_group_id': Value('string'), 'market_group_id': Value('string'), 'split': Value('string'), 'market_created_at': Value('string'), 'market_end_at': Value('string'), 'market_slug': Value('string'), 'event_start_at': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'event_end_at': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'feature_max_time': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'tweet_ids': List(Value('int64')), 'post_timestamps': List(Value('timestamp[s]')), 'creation_cohort_month': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'question': Value('string'), 'description': Value('string'), 'category': Value('string'), 'domain': Value('null'), 'question_char_len': Value('int64'), 'description_char_len': Value('int64'), 'score': Value('float64'), 'linked_tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'avg_link_confidence': Value('float64'), 'max_link_confidence': Value('float64'), 'text_similarity': Value('float64'), 'tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'unique_user_count': Value('int64'), 'burst_duration_hours': Value('float64'), 'in_3d_tweet_count': Value('int64'), 'in_3d_share': Value('float64'), 'interest_label': Value('string')}
because column names don't match
The above exception was the direct cause of the following exception:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1369, in compute_config_parquet_and_info_response
parquet_operations, partial, estimated_dataset_info = stream_convert_to_parquet(
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^
builder, max_dataset_size_bytes=max_dataset_size_bytes
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
)
^
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 948, in stream_convert_to_parquet
builder._prepare_split(split_generator=splits_generators[split], file_format="parquet")
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1683, in _prepare_split
for job_id, done, content in self._prepare_split_single(
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^
gen_kwargs=gen_kwargs, job_id=job_id, **_prepare_split_args
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
):
^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1869, in _prepare_split_single
raise DatasetGenerationError("An error occurred while generating the dataset") from e
datasets.exceptions.DatasetGenerationError: An error occurred while generating the datasetNeed help to make the dataset viewer work? Make sure to review how to configure the dataset viewer, and open a discussion for direct support.
dataset_version string | condition_id string | event_group_id string | market_group_id string | split string | market_created_at string | market_end_at string | market_slug string | event_start_at timestamp[s] | event_end_at timestamp[s] | feature_max_time timestamp[s] | tweet_ids list | post_timestamps list | creation_cohort_month timestamp[s] | question string | description string | category string | domain null | question_char_len int64 | description_char_len int64 | score float64 | linked_tweet_count int64 | avg_link_confidence float64 | max_link_confidence float64 | text_similarity float64 | tweet_count int64 | unique_user_count int64 | burst_duration_hours float64 | in_3d_tweet_count int64 | in_3d_share float64 | interest_label string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902 | t1e_517d5d5c700fc95e3ccb | t1m_49fd1b40b566e5945bd1 | train | 2025-05-02T17:00:26.233000+00:00 | 2026-05-31T12:00:00+00:00 | gta-vi-released-before-june-2026 | 2025-04-28T20:12:24 | 2025-05-02T16:56:09 | 2025-05-02T16:56:09 | [
1916948636111450600,
1917188482889371600,
1917226191788102100,
1917323275559899400,
1917567780909445600,
1917920261908685000,
1917975945669169400,
1918265468076605700,
1918266470351413500,
1918267422835868000,
1918267826730893600,
1918267907274072000,
1918267999372423400,
19182680079122025... | [
"2025-04-28T20:12:24",
"2025-04-29T12:05:28",
"2025-04-29T14:35:19",
"2025-04-29T21:01:05",
"2025-04-30T13:12:40",
"2025-05-01T12:33:18",
"2025-05-01T16:14:34",
"2025-05-02T11:25:01",
"2025-05-02T11:29:00",
"2025-05-02T11:32:47",
"2025-05-02T11:34:24",
"2025-05-02T11:34:43",
"2025-05-02T11:3... | 2025-05-01T00:00:00 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versio... | liquid | null | 33 | 611 | 1.663154 | 59 | 0.648909 | 0.8374 | 0.648909 | 59 | 33 | 92.729167 | 56 | 0.949153 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e | t1e_5420f63173c7d5391788 | t1m_a83dbfeaaad64000e3c1 | train | 2025-07-17T12:15:02.471079+00:00 | 2026-06-16T00:00:00+00:00 | will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals | 2025-07-10T18:58:18 | 2025-07-12T22:36:16 | 2025-07-12T22:36:16 | [
1943384300713288000,
1943461497503650000,
1943466927378325800,
1943693944438612000,
1944163930013938000
] | [
"2025-07-10T18:58:18",
"2025-07-11T00:05:03",
"2025-07-11T00:26:38",
"2025-07-11T15:28:43",
"2025-07-12T22:36:16"
] | 2025-07-01T00:00:00 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Western Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA.
If the 20... | liquid | null | 69 | 507 | 0.991624 | 5 | 0.561916 | 0.60059 | 0.561916 | 5 | 4 | 51.632778 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xb9e518a563d955037698fec22b03bca649aeb4423fc0999c6862b805e23a1ec9 | t1e_1719a1d453c77929b107 | t1m_d3c22869b756bf30a298 | train | 2025-08-04T22:51:57.308119+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | tom-holland-announced-as-next-james-bond-679 | 2025-08-01T16:00:16 | 2025-08-01T16:31:06 | 2025-08-01T16:31:06 | [
1951312032805835000,
1951319790590509000
] | [
"2025-08-01T16:00:16",
"2025-08-01T16:31:06"
] | 2025-08-01T00:00:00 | Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made ther... | emerging | null | 41 | 600 | 0.838863 | 2 | 0.56421 | 0.58447 | 0.56421 | 2 | 2 | 0.513889 | 0 | 0 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x0b4d4807d9ada3da32f66bd906f7c79b931e836338ea9127840a22357dc80d6b | t1e_006063549ab8d0aff3c8 | t1m_4af2fe8b2f6b495b86d8 | train | 2025-08-18T21:01:41.891892+00:00 | 2026-05-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-mohamed-salah-be-the-top-goal-scorer-in-the-202526-english-premier-league-season | 2025-08-12T15:00:01 | 2025-08-15T23:20:00 | 2025-08-15T23:20:00 | [
1955283134527701500,
1955506084254286000,
1955661178270831000,
1955979217658896600,
1956460656883875800,
1956467843748242000,
1956478346294174000,
1956496123436097800
] | [
"2025-08-12T15:00:01",
"2025-08-13T05:45:56",
"2025-08-13T16:02:13",
"2025-08-14T13:06:00",
"2025-08-15T20:59:04",
"2025-08-15T21:27:38",
"2025-08-15T22:09:22",
"2025-08-15T23:20:00"
] | 2025-08-01T00:00:00 | Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season? | This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.
If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Goals scored in Premier League match... | liquid | null | 87 | 890 | 1.047328 | 8 | 0.560365 | 0.62744 | 0.560365 | 8 | 3 | 80.333056 | 3 | 0.375 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x0efaf81024bc4cefd1c35a5b53ebe9f441fa1b7774c1d086374fc5dcc35be042 | t1e_31569a58a592e7713b8f | t1m_82a69284b8d08044d7be | train | 2025-08-18T21:01:46.435666+00:00 | 2026-05-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-hugo-ekitike-be-the-top-goal-scorer-in-the-202526-english-premier-league-season | 2025-08-15T18:42:16 | 2025-08-16T09:31:00 | 2025-08-16T09:31:00 | [
1956426228379848700,
1956441666069438700,
1956441884488028400,
1956470268203032600,
1956479891148259300,
1956482558323306800,
1956494272233984300,
1956649886696509700
] | [
"2025-08-15T18:42:16",
"2025-08-15T19:43:36",
"2025-08-15T19:44:28",
"2025-08-15T21:37:16",
"2025-08-15T22:15:30",
"2025-08-15T22:26:06",
"2025-08-15T23:12:39",
"2025-08-16T09:31:00"
] | 2025-08-01T00:00:00 | Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season? | This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.
If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Goals scored in Premier League match... | liquid | null | 86 | 890 | 1.070629 | 8 | 0.571166 | 0.62744 | 0.571166 | 8 | 3 | 14.812222 | 5 | 0.625 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x7499cb05b10df8f07a0cd31417e9f48ece68ef3bd13a8197c12487a3630d5017 | t1e_22b12288d2fb3d7aed54 | t1m_53a01ad402d8000fb03f | train | 2025-08-18T21:02:10.650325+00:00 | 2026-05-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-cody-gakpo-be-the-top-goal-scorer-in-the-202526-english-premier-league-season | 2025-08-14T15:34:20 | 2025-08-15T20:17:24 | 2025-08-15T20:17:24 | [
1956016548251836700,
1956449239317553400,
1956450170633171200
] | [
"2025-08-14T15:34:20",
"2025-08-15T20:13:42",
"2025-08-15T20:17:24"
] | 2025-08-01T00:00:00 | Will Cody Gakpo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season? | This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.
If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Goals scored in Premier League match... | liquid | null | 84 | 890 | 0.919 | 3 | 0.572427 | 0.6167 | 0.572427 | 3 | 3 | 28.717778 | 0 | 0 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x690d504367efdec61936e7dc1c572c1598281f3e91d30d3b6148f3f1f48642d5 | t1e_55e3524a178d8926b16e | t1m_a489718d6c3cbfd85641 | train | 2025-09-15T19:49:10.836000+00:00 | 2026-06-09T00:00:00+00:00 | will-janet-mills-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-senate-in-maine | 2025-09-09T20:13:54 | 2025-09-10T16:51:17 | 2025-09-10T16:51:17 | [
1965508985429344500,
1965770809974133000,
1965771833564639500,
1965818110453375200,
1965820384198144300
] | [
"2025-09-09T20:13:54",
"2025-09-10T13:34:18",
"2025-09-10T13:38:22",
"2025-09-10T16:42:15",
"2025-09-10T16:51:17"
] | 2025-09-01T00:00:00 | Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.
If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic pa... | liquid | null | 63 | 393 | 1.032344 | 5 | 0.602636 | 0.67529 | 0.602636 | 5 | 4 | 20.623056 | 0 | 0 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xfab0d8f0a9cfb7aa8ac5f37cfa9e3c2cca648c242fa6f18af132e30278603d19 | t1e_9064a4cba3f1d235b210 | t1m_eed84daa8bc5a84a242a | train | 2025-09-17T19:00:59.469081+00:00 | 2026-05-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-kylian-mbappe-be-the-20252026-top-ucl-goal-scorer | 2025-09-12T09:06:04 | 2025-09-13T14:37:20 | 2025-09-13T14:37:20 | [
1966428083117813800,
1966454638573433000,
1966788957481443800,
1966873838072849000
] | [
"2025-09-12T09:06:04",
"2025-09-12T10:51:35",
"2025-09-13T09:00:03",
"2025-09-13T14:37:20"
] | 2025-09-01T00:00:00 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | This market will resolve according to the top goalscorer of the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League.
If multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player's last name alphabetically if ties per... | liquid | null | 56 | 612 | 0.940835 | 4 | 0.56079 | 0.6123 | 0.56079 | 4 | 3 | 29.521111 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x370ee4a82b6b36581ebf892d41ee60ad926d54db92721e0e9c3a77b7778d15c7 | t1e_6d1c72bcdd822c320225 | t1m_90167310c4be5412451f | train | 2025-09-30T23:13:35.251373+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-turkey-182-161-789 | 2025-09-25T14:42:10 | 2025-09-26T15:22:13 | 2025-09-26T15:22:13 | [
1971223708543992300,
1971237879662748000,
1971238856545460700,
1971239065489113600,
1971240939818815700,
1971242187284512800,
1971255867480957400,
1971260055610851600,
1971280888865382700,
1971315224910373000,
1971334987480785200,
1971335270608900000,
1971596175288455400
] | [
"2025-09-25T14:42:10",
"2025-09-25T15:38:28",
"2025-09-25T15:42:21",
"2025-09-25T15:43:11",
"2025-09-25T15:50:38",
"2025-09-25T15:55:36",
"2025-09-25T16:49:57",
"2025-09-25T17:06:36",
"2025-09-25T18:29:23",
"2025-09-25T20:45:49",
"2025-09-25T22:04:21",
"2025-09-25T22:05:28",
"2025-09-26T15:2... | 2025-09-01T00:00:00 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter ... | emerging | null | 41 | 934 | 1.18559 | 13 | 0.59514 | 0.6709 | 0.59514 | 13 | 6 | 24.6675 | 0 | 0 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1827f7e35c24f0cd5ff86318af815e61fdf89364977ead7e20ff867efec98c39 | t1e_221ac970b719e83e499e | t1m_b9f19deba8df2d44b08f | train | 2025-09-30T23:13:43.277447+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-japan-711-288-527 | 2025-09-24T19:18:09 | 2025-09-25T20:08:48 | 2025-09-25T20:08:48 | [
1970930775899111400,
1971109347448050200,
1971153332820656600,
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"2025-09-25T20:08:48"
] | 2025-09-01T00:00:00 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan? | This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter ... | liquid | null | 40 | 934 | 0.993205 | 4 | 0.61316 | 0.66602 | 0.61316 | 4 | 3 | 24.844167 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95 | t1e_11e13d49dcd6ea5cf117 | t1m_664488d50f60bdcbaa91 | train | 2025-10-10T21:52:43.171772+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-june-30-824 | 2025-10-04T00:04:39 | 2025-10-10T15:17:00 | 2025-10-10T15:17:00 | [
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"2025-10-06T14:2... | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | liquid | null | 73 | 194 | 1.586709 | 70 | 0.551276 | 0.66455 | 0.551276 | 70 | 39 | 159.205833 | 38 | 0.542857 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xf1ed2e6df582b055e94b3ff00b9dce996af9f04c5cc67e9a6fbfef487169c0e7 | t1e_a0758101e7065fc7f718 | t1m_7bd4ebdbefe37687a93d | train | 2025-10-10T21:52:43.930038+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-tesla-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-june-30 | 2025-10-03T22:00:59 | 2025-10-10T15:27:42 | 2025-10-10T15:27:42 | [
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"2025-10-06T01:5... | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | liquid | null | 72 | 194 | 1.39485 | 36 | 0.552342 | 0.65039 | 0.552342 | 36 | 15 | 161.445278 | 17 | 0.472222 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca | t1e_602b2a049ca264624742 | t1m_04dd0e0f9952a0aeaaa6 | train | 2025-10-10T21:52:57.234000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 | 2025-10-07T00:02:49 | 2025-10-08T02:20:09 | 2025-10-08T02:20:09 | [
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"2025-10-07T00:02:49",
"2025-10-07T11:08:01",
"2025-10-08T02:20:09"
] | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:... | liquid | null | 62 | 1,395 | 0.940714 | 3 | 0.577473 | 0.63623 | 0.577473 | 3 | 3 | 26.288889 | 1 | 0.333333 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xc2b5121b8b8da7d63cc127f7ecdd613477623707a023d581e05197c085fc41db | t1e_9e311ba15a792100f226 | t1m_b4815d57b8d074d6f6dd | train | 2025-10-10T21:53:03.863000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-xai-have-the-top-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026-292 | 2025-10-07T23:23:40 | 2025-10-09T11:01:27 | 2025-10-09T11:01:27 | [
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"2025-10-07T23:23:40",
"2025-10-08T21:20:01",
"2025-10-09T11:01:27"
] | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderb... | emerging | null | 55 | 1,409 | 0.965097 | 3 | 0.568523 | 0.62842 | 0.568523 | 3 | 3 | 35.629722 | 3 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xe0738027b5b1fedc415b34cb392fd3c4f5834c369485ab77b22535d13b116a20 | t1e_cc2974a81620fccf7961 | t1m_c792d300be2421e38b0c | train | 2025-10-10T21:53:05.713000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 | 2025-10-06T09:41:16 | 2025-10-06T19:31:34 | 2025-10-06T19:31:34 | [
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] | [
"2025-10-06T09:41:16",
"2025-10-06T19:31:34"
] | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderb... | emerging | null | 56 | 1,409 | 0.838373 | 2 | 0.56372 | 0.60693 | 0.56372 | 2 | 2 | 9.838333 | 0 | 0 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x44878f202dd18a286de9235acec372e9e6e6ca2b28d269c4138fc2604c9b78a9 | t1e_86043b13534625ab5b57 | t1m_0a6eded64312aa23d790 | train | 2025-10-30T19:25:57.140097+00:00 | 2026-07-01T04:00:00+00:00 | will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-june-30 | 2025-10-27T15:10:04 | 2025-10-30T17:59:32 | 2025-10-30T17:59:32 | [
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"2025-10-28T18:5... | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information ... | emerging | null | 40 | 396 | 1.339716 | 19 | 0.568361 | 0.63721 | 0.568361 | 19 | 15 | 74.824444 | 17 | 0.894737 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xfe842812a2eee8cc9bc9c71f1e1ed7c40c2776cf710dc962a7a6f74f45562784 | t1e_cefe16e9c8e4da2fe04e | t1m_ceba0249308f6b41d1af | train | 2025-10-31T15:02:46.045000+00:00 | 2026-07-01T04:00:00+00:00 | will-consensys-ipo-by-june-30-2026-144 | 2025-10-29T20:36:37 | 2025-10-30T14:56:38 | 2025-10-30T14:56:38 | [
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"2025-10-30T14:12:41",
"2025-10-30T14:56:38"
] | 2025-10-01T00:00:00 | Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConsenSys (the parent company of MetaMask) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the liste... | emerging | null | 35 | 569 | 1.200559 | 11 | 0.583232 | 0.66943 | 0.583232 | 11 | 6 | 18.333611 | 11 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x5462f8d31cc41314da1b56ff424068657315c66c0404b8cb5dff466939ca6625 | t1e_f4ea1384e5c20b6c6619 | t1m_118058b20b5985803b07 | train | 2025-11-07T00:43:35.276531+00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 | sam-altman-in-jail-by-june-30 | 2025-11-01T17:01:29 | 2025-11-04T12:41:26 | 2025-11-04T12:41:26 | [
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"2025-11-02T19:45:28",
"2025-11-03T21:39:16",
"2025-11-04T12:41:26"
] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible re... | liquid | null | 30 | 345 | 0.989567 | 4 | 0.574707 | 0.60791 | 0.574707 | 4 | 4 | 67.665833 | 1 | 0.25 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xd7bcc8892de53920e83b7935847a6d8b1472cea90c72cb00c9c8e139e7e555ac | t1e_57b898f2afe4d4ac515f | t1m_cc4a28cb456f328af034 | train | 2025-11-13T15:15:06.544893+00:00 | 2026-04-12T00:00:00+00:00 | will-victor-wembanyama-record-a-quadruple-double-this-season | 2025-11-08T02:07:40 | 2025-11-11T06:32:52 | 2025-11-11T06:32:52 | [
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"2025-11-11T02:10:30",
"2025-11-11T06:32:52"
] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Victor Wembanyama records a quadruple-double in any game during the 2025-2026 NBA regular season or post-season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A 'quadruple-double' is defined as, in a single game, achieving double digits in four of the following categories: points, r... | liquid | null | 61 | 944 | 0.971575 | 5 | 0.57295 | 0.646 | 0.57295 | 5 | 2 | 76.42 | 2 | 0.4 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xfc613d67a16f3a9a10b63baa0f48cee855d49310b33643112e43f769d68b80a5 | t1e_07ec4c34325308b93dce | t1m_a48cfebfdee18744003d | train | 2025-11-15T00:17:16.462831+00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 | will-the-steam-machine-cost-700-or-more-at-release | 2025-11-12T15:22:06 | 2025-11-14T16:11:06 | 2025-11-14T16:11:06 | [
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"2025-11-12T23:3... | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be a... | liquid | null | 52 | 861 | 1.332566 | 25 | 0.563593 | 0.70947 | 0.563593 | 25 | 9 | 48.816667 | 25 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4c35eee5846b4ebbbf8d5fcb112faa82677c4caf45fbbf622b29cc08f4bc1b9b | t1e_835a68296f46fc61c275 | t1m_547c4de3948422b900a5 | train | 2025-11-19T00:25:11.077000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T05:00:00+00:00 | will-arc-launch-a-token-by-june-30-2026 | 2025-11-12T11:31:29 | 2025-11-13T22:53:14 | 2025-11-13T22:53:14 | [
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"2025-11-13T11:36:10",
"2025-11-13T12:0... | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolut... | emerging | null | 40 | 437 | 1.248491 | 15 | 0.576107 | 0.64111 | 0.576107 | 15 | 12 | 35.3625 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x971617659e97edf90f31fb60f676944dda5526ff15b25a5a6d2dcce5476fd339 | t1e_45231313fa78fc9f4d7f | t1m_7ece83742b9643b516c0 | train | 2025-11-20T16:58:40.643123+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-ubisoft-announce-bankruptcy-by-june-30 | 2025-11-13T17:44:54 | 2025-11-13T18:44:52 | 2025-11-13T18:44:52 | [
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] | [
"2025-11-13T17:44:54",
"2025-11-13T18:17:04",
"2025-11-13T18:44:52"
] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ubisoft announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.
The announcement must be made through any of their o... | emerging | null | 44 | 549 | 0.955947 | 3 | 0.609373 | 0.62988 | 0.609373 | 3 | 3 | 0.999444 | 0 | 0 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x74d26fda5f74ce870cba8688df741d844a31e163ccf5bde2cd4131d37bf0e6ad | t1e_d75611054290536f55ee | t1m_b00ee891d1641377d84d | train | 2025-11-21T15:59:05.648094+00:00 | 2026-06-23T00:00:00+00:00 | will-cameron-kasky-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12 | 2025-11-18T15:06:26 | 2025-11-19T15:19:07 | 2025-11-19T15:19:07 | [
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] | [
"2025-11-18T15:06:26",
"2025-11-19T15:19:07"
] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20... | liquid | null | 55 | 593 | 0.926603 | 2 | 0.62695 | 0.65234 | 0.62695 | 2 | 2 | 24.211389 | 1 | 0.5 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xd1dcc98673debc97919f9dd8584bfa16ee8f37996d78c24679f0cf4045a99b45 | t1e_7cf5438c5b3590f26338 | t1m_645da1f8323b7aac8963 | train | 2025-11-21T15:59:13.939000+00:00 | 2026-06-23T00:00:00+00:00 | will-george-conway-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12 | 2025-11-19T21:16:49 | 2025-11-19T21:56:17 | 2025-11-19T21:56:17 | [
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] | [
"2025-11-19T21:16:49",
"2025-11-19T21:55:27",
"2025-11-19T21:56:17"
] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20... | liquid | null | 55 | 593 | 1.011849 | 3 | 0.644043 | 0.70508 | 0.644043 | 3 | 2 | 0.657778 | 3 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x23862cc33d499e4f93c0fba6e64a4db04d4a83ac5f180458e3d13b97cb9c78d0 | t1e_1dc92ba22d3c34994a5b | t1m_a92b30b011f7ed2a7f61 | train | 2025-11-25T20:43:18.013000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T05:00:00+00:00 | will-tempo-launch-a-token-by-june-30-2026 | 2025-11-24T21:14:14 | 2025-11-25T20:03:32 | 2025-11-25T20:03:32 | [
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] | [
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] | 2025-11-01T00:00:00 | Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary reso... | emerging | null | 43 | 442 | 1.094426 | 5 | 0.596486 | 0.7793 | 0.596486 | 5 | 5 | 22.821667 | 5 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xef416cfd80afbb43c7550a8fe0f950679ab3d6e60551e2a90f230106809fe2c5 | t1e_e46edff57a7963339524 | t1m_8725033d6b8c9f5ee96d | train | 2025-12-04T17:01:14.696599+00:00 | 2026-06-30T12:00:00+00:00 | mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by-june-30 | 2025-11-30T00:40:58 | 2025-12-04T14:00:45 | 2025-12-04T14:00:45 | [
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"2025-12-03T17:3... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an ... | emerging | null | 39 | 715 | 1.275574 | 17 | 0.567642 | 0.62939 | 0.567642 | 17 | 9 | 109.329722 | 15 | 0.882353 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xbab5703006a17b1339ad99c904505693d56ad2f8ded327fdc953fd1a3f21a425 | t1e_eae9666edda80ce063dc | t1m_53df7f0a4e898da4f606 | train | 2025-12-04T23:28:12.019818+00:00 | 2026-06-23T00:00:00+00:00 | will-elise-stefanik-win-the-2026-new-york-governor-republican-primary-election | 2025-12-02T15:52:59 | 2025-12-03T19:17:59 | 2025-12-03T19:17:59 | [
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"2025-12-03T19:17:59"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? | This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place... | liquid | null | 79 | 558 | 1.055264 | 5 | 0.557324 | 0.60986 | 0.557324 | 5 | 5 | 27.416667 | 5 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xec3db24e9dd340f3e1aa8f68d730c666845c8e85f90f2a49df03290b18c66f74 | t1e_3553ad4500f62624c2a9 | t1m_fe045ce51f904bdc31bb | train | 2025-12-06T00:00:22.199438+00:00 | 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-canada-win-group-a-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup | 2025-12-05T19:24:17 | 2025-12-05T19:24:34 | 2025-12-05T19:24:34 | [
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] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, ... | liquid | null | 51 | 643 | 0.960148 | 2 | 0.635495 | 0.7041 | 0.635495 | 2 | 2 | 0.004722 | 2 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x810354c62431246e10c094cb357e8209994a467145fc9801d2f1965c8ac5f3ce | t1e_6271e5d5eda82f8ebae7 | t1m_98484ecc6529353ccefa | train | 2025-12-06T00:10:19.911213+00:00 | 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-scotland-win-group-c-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup | 2025-12-05T19:01:07 | 2025-12-05T22:32:37 | 2025-12-05T22:32:37 | [
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] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, ... | liquid | null | 53 | 643 | 1.104367 | 5 | 0.646974 | 0.73633 | 0.646974 | 5 | 3 | 3.525 | 5 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xcbc96c93a1e80ffb7b5efeb2bd6c6a587ec16957eec8d2e823988cc51d6dac30 | t1e_8de48ea631c6fb466807 | t1m_79ce30b29c7920d107e9 | train | 2025-12-06T00:10:20.997986+00:00 | 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 | will-usa-win-group-d-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup | 2025-12-03T14:12:44 | 2025-12-06T00:06:34 | 2025-12-06T00:06:34 | [
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"2025-12-05T19:3... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, ... | liquid | null | 48 | 643 | 1.389135 | 23 | 0.57339 | 0.69238 | 0.57339 | 23 | 17 | 57.897222 | 23 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4e4a7df876b0c04f0b8b29b9073eddfbaf5c787192da825ae7ca1031bc8cfd15 | t1e_ae8c4a2ac1cd7575465c | t1m_0ff3c97f789045da56d2 | train | 2025-12-10T21:45:56.196927+00:00 | 2026-06-17T00:00:00+00:00 | will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting | 2025-12-08T14:44:46 | 2025-12-10T21:23:34 | 2025-12-10T21:23:34 | [
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"2025-12-10T18:2... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate ... | liquid | null | 76 | 1,309 | 1.353939 | 21 | 0.551246 | 0.64697 | 0.551246 | 21 | 17 | 54.646667 | 21 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xdde06286a7b9464d344f410ab0b3d2ebc6469904e72c27fd982f65fdbf78768d | t1e_e767be366dd2091d9b39 | t1m_5af9ebd2772effac5f11 | train | 2025-12-10T21:45:58.522699+00:00 | 2026-06-17T00:00:00+00:00 | will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting | 2025-12-04T01:06:03 | 2025-12-10T21:04:44 | 2025-12-10T21:04:44 | [
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"2025-12-05T04:3... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate ... | liquid | null | 75 | 1,309 | 1.772969 | 120 | 0.592501 | 0.74072 | 0.592501 | 120 | 69 | 163.978056 | 87 | 0.725 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xd2aea784fec0395820e7b26faeb1b494cdd48da2ec23f4c6c1e4fb0b733dd687 | t1e_819ebce8d4d2b1799ca7 | t1m_e660213765ada6cdc08c | train | 2025-12-16T01:36:20.724184+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | nasdaq-round-the-clock-trading-by-june-30 | 2025-12-15T21:02:06 | 2025-12-15T23:53:56 | 2025-12-15T23:53:56 | [
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"2025-12-15T23:5... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (Nasdaq) extends its trading schedule to cover at least 22 hours per day, 5 days per week by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
5 days per week refers to any 5 24-hour periods which Nasdaq treats as trading days. This ... | liquid | null | 42 | 1,366 | 1.273654 | 13 | 0.563889 | 0.59912 | 0.563889 | 13 | 13 | 2.863889 | 13 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4 | t1e_4b05ebf11f73d2429cdc | t1m_5af9ebd2772effac5f11 | train | 2025-12-16T19:29:02.653507+00:00 | 2026-06-17T00:00:00+00:00 | fed-rate-cut-by-june-2026-meeting | 2025-12-09T19:29:23 | 2025-12-16T19:26:11 | 2025-12-16T19:26:11 | [
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"2025-12-10T12:3... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June mee... | emerging | null | 34 | 706 | 1.895031 | 268 | 0.56068 | 0.71436 | 0.56068 | 268 | 124 | 167.946667 | 66 | 0.246269 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xc80571a1a13b24f40b1855fb51b0339612d548e3a453731832768bbb94c45e68 | t1e_34b384acea56fa16f4f6 | t1m_1abbc961f9aea71a9683 | train | 2025-12-16T21:39:01.432028+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-kamala-harris-announce-a-2028-run-for-president-by-june-30 | 2025-12-15T00:04:07 | 2025-12-16T18:56:16 | 2025-12-16T18:56:16 | [
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"2025-12-16T18:5... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, r... | emerging | null | 64 | 680 | 1.273251 | 14 | 0.577254 | 0.70557 | 0.577254 | 14 | 10 | 42.869167 | 14 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xd51d5847de5fad102d1a36b03eeb0dcd68277d997e123abac30065f891420de3 | t1e_7d5388bd45a566c4abce | t1m_e7d0d8920f4d471555c8 | train | 2025-12-22T22:32:19.770669+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-nvidia-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30 | 2025-12-16T14:31:17 | 2025-12-22T16:21:06 | 2025-12-22T16:21:06 | [
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"2025-12-20T15:0... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmar... | emerging | null | 42 | 793 | 1.253652 | 17 | 0.5569 | 0.62598 | 0.5569 | 17 | 11 | 145.830278 | 5 | 0.294118 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x843256b0c49a6deab845ede353cb6201ef1f371e82d1c996ef2fd9062b605d80 | t1e_a5a621dab6c1bb256ca7 | t1m_3728fb0e08f01167aeda | train | 2025-12-22T22:32:21.364843+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30 | 2025-12-16T18:43:02 | 2025-12-18T21:52:02 | 2025-12-18T21:52:02 | [
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] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmar... | emerging | null | 40 | 793 | 1.012 | 5 | 0.56406 | 0.60498 | 0.56406 | 5 | 5 | 51.15 | 0 | 0 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4 | t1e_3a597ac94ed0fbd51f8c | t1m_72c02d6bbf7c8ff02279 | train | 2025-12-22T22:32:21.872741+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-openai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30 | 2025-12-16T01:51:47 | 2025-12-20T03:30:00 | 2025-12-20T03:30:00 | [
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"2025-12-17T09:57:07",
"2025-12-17T10:4... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmar... | emerging | null | 42 | 793 | 1.396685 | 32 | 0.552841 | 0.61279 | 0.552841 | 32 | 23 | 97.636944 | 1 | 0.03125 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956 | t1e_769185ec70c6b5c3550a | t1m_a12882a4fcf9800dc80c | train | 2025-12-26T23:29:15.952000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-hit-7000-high-jun-2026-433-244-291 | 2025-12-22T02:28:43 | 2025-12-24T14:35:15 | 2025-12-24T14:35:15 | [
2002929263251468800,
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"2025-12-22T02:28:43",
"2025-12-22T13:31:07",
"2025-12-22T14:27:41",
"2025-12-23T19:58:58",
"2025-12-24T10:27:46",
"2025-12-24T14:35:15"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Mo... | emerging | null | 48 | 1,500 | 1.055306 | 6 | 0.552162 | 0.63281 | 0.552162 | 6 | 6 | 60.108889 | 2 | 0.333333 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232 | t1e_a94a9e620df30cf681fd | t1m_a12882a4fcf9800dc80c | train | 2025-12-26T23:29:16.713000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-hit-6000-high-jun-2026-148-914-853 | 2025-12-26T19:06:07 | 2025-12-26T22:59:51 | 2025-12-26T22:59:51 | [
2004629817505837300,
2004688640862232600
] | [
"2025-12-26T19:06:07",
"2025-12-26T22:59:51"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Mo... | emerging | null | 48 | 1,500 | 0.929388 | 2 | 0.604735 | 0.67627 | 0.604735 | 2 | 2 | 3.895556 | 2 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80 | t1e_0a4c201d3722bf69f963 | t1m_a12882a4fcf9800dc80c | train | 2025-12-26T23:29:19.301000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-hit-8000-high-jun-2026-342-647-753 | 2025-12-20T16:47:23 | 2025-12-23T22:37:27 | 2025-12-23T22:37:27 | [
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"2025-12-20T16:47:23",
"2025-12-22T01:53:06",
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"2025-12-23T12:41:07",
"2025-12-23T21:41:06",
"2025-12-23T22:37:27"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Mo... | emerging | null | 48 | 1,500 | 1.057523 | 6 | 0.571045 | 0.62646 | 0.571045 | 6 | 6 | 77.834444 | 0 | 0 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca | t1e_142dd9f102402f01f9da | t1m_8140e4d29ac139277148 | train | 2025-12-26T23:29:21.933000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-hit-3800-low-jun-2026-729-384-549-926-881-297-655-985-818-121-784-162 | 2025-12-22T15:22:16 | 2025-12-24T15:46:02 | 2025-12-24T15:46:02 | [
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] | [
"2025-12-22T15:22:16",
"2025-12-24T01:08:57",
"2025-12-24T15:46:02"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Mo... | emerging | null | 47 | 1,500 | 0.97089 | 3 | 0.590983 | 0.62842 | 0.590983 | 3 | 3 | 48.396111 | 2 | 0.666667 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xcc828ff006c5edbf3ee959d79cb53c3c47e66db759fe9e9ce2090b0886d7ff98 | t1e_0bbb199b5be4579eb738 | t1m_a12882a4fcf9800dc80c | train | 2025-12-26T23:31:57.467000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-above-6000-jun-2026 | 2025-12-22T03:22:26 | 2025-12-23T13:59:55 | 2025-12-23T13:59:55 | [
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] | [
"2025-12-22T03:22:26",
"2025-12-22T13:56:52",
"2025-12-22T14:37:17",
"2025-12-23T13:59:55"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated deliver... | emerging | null | 72 | 1,466 | 0.975969 | 4 | 0.57361 | 0.63184 | 0.57361 | 4 | 4 | 34.624722 | 0 | 0 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x5e75c47528185caa0b8140d5199a505b111d535d004f10c14c77099e160f8c43 | t1e_e5f41dddf3dd9a8563f3 | t1m_ccba77702a0ca17ad6d4 | train | 2025-12-26T23:33:33.925042+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-settle-4600-5000-jun-2026 | 2025-12-22T00:24:45 | 2025-12-26T01:06:43 | 2025-12-26T01:06:43 | [
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20036174918186232... | [
"2025-12-22T00:24:45",
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"2025-12-22T01:52:39",
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"2025-12-23T15:06:38",
"2025-12-23T16:59:40",
"2025-12-24T00:0... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? | This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (f... | liquid | null | 47 | 1,865 | 1.359329 | 23 | 0.575386 | 0.64062 | 0.575386 | 23 | 16 | 96.699444 | 11 | 0.478261 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xa19142e40da92f4110d29f63475ed9689f1471f8963c87e3220a989cdb356d45 | t1e_f608389980b13d740a76 | t1m_0348a9193201b5e8364b | train | 2025-12-26T23:33:34.432461+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | gc-settle-4200-4600-jun-2026 | 2025-12-21T20:37:39 | 2025-12-26T23:28:45 | 2025-12-26T23:28:45 | [
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20033926355460096... | [
"2025-12-21T20:37:39",
"2025-12-22T01:41:27",
"2025-12-22T10:47:48",
"2025-12-22T10:52:54",
"2025-12-22T12:01:08",
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"2025-12-23T02:04:30",
"2025-12-23T09:0... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (f... | emerging | null | 47 | 1,865 | 1.450239 | 36 | 0.561958 | 0.66406 | 0.561958 | 36 | 25 | 122.851667 | 15 | 0.416667 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1b252df7e5281d8fb86888619f4ee1f5045c9f2aecb857d361819ca6522e4665 | t1e_efbdbe7cc8dcd33dcb59 | t1m_ed80ce6e4709a32a0047 | train | 2025-12-26T23:35:17.578000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | will-silver-si-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june | 2025-12-25T23:02:34 | 2025-12-26T20:53:25 | 2025-12-26T20:53:25 | [
2004326932981469200,
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] | [
"2025-12-25T23:02:34",
"2025-12-26T01:42:12",
"2025-12-26T15:49:55",
"2025-12-26T20:53:25"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Activ... | emerging | null | 48 | 1,499 | 1.00695 | 4 | 0.576905 | 0.62256 | 0.576905 | 4 | 3 | 21.8475 | 4 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xbb6db11fa76323814a73cd76cdaa459f502078166bf5810e6de1b013af7334f8 | t1e_3d352cea56a5627c280e | t1m_696f784326110150540e | train | 2025-12-26T23:35:18.343000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | will-silver-si-hit-high-150-by-end-of-june | 2025-12-25T23:59:13 | 2025-12-26T22:54:40 | 2025-12-26T22:54:40 | [
2004341190096048600,
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] | [
"2025-12-25T23:59:13",
"2025-12-26T19:04:32",
"2025-12-26T22:54:40"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Activ... | emerging | null | 48 | 1,499 | 0.986414 | 3 | 0.58984 | 0.61279 | 0.58984 | 3 | 3 | 22.924167 | 3 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x35241fd758ba0da8bc3d7df2706aaf87d8420c5004ae3c4ceaa07b432f955850 | t1e_12ed7ede97b43cf1cfd2 | t1m_696f784326110150540e | train | 2025-12-26T23:35:18.598000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | will-silver-si-hit-high-200-by-end-of-june | 2025-12-21T23:40:24 | 2025-12-23T22:33:16 | 2025-12-23T22:33:16 | [
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] | [
"2025-12-21T23:40:24",
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"2025-12-22T14:59:44",
"2025-12-22T22:10:41",
"2025-12-23T11:12:58",
"2025-12-23T19:34:46",
"2025-12-23T22:33:16"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Activ... | liquid | null | 48 | 1,499 | 1.081119 | 7 | 0.608259 | 0.71631 | 0.608259 | 7 | 4 | 46.881111 | 0 | 0 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x36d8503ac63c0e55c3926fc9a903aee46ad2e1b28532af32f239eeda4aa6dbaa | t1e_cf0079d834e9ed8d10a5 | t1m_cd0a58ac7f0aca4c1846 | train | 2025-12-26T23:35:24.017000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | will-silver-si-hit-low-35-by-end-of-june-325-231 | 2025-12-23T12:04:21 | 2025-12-24T02:02:34 | 2025-12-24T02:02:34 | [
2003436514727125200,
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] | [
"2025-12-23T12:04:21",
"2025-12-24T00:33:11",
"2025-12-24T02:02:34"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Activ... | liquid | null | 46 | 1,499 | 0.9608 | 3 | 0.580893 | 0.58936 | 0.580893 | 3 | 3 | 13.970278 | 2 | 0.666667 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xfc1c23e6b01435e0222e652f86ecc498a2d1680f0b63fec90f498418ee2f5a94 | t1e_650f265b8c6303316188 | t1m_c97880c3e04082cc26c8 | train | 2025-12-26T23:35:25.450811+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | si-above-90-jun-2026 | 2025-12-22T16:26:59 | 2025-12-23T19:41:03 | 2025-12-23T19:41:03 | [
2003140219256852700,
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] | [
"2025-12-22T16:26:59",
"2025-12-23T14:58:38",
"2025-12-23T19:41:03"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated del... | liquid | null | 71 | 1,465 | 0.90126 | 3 | 0.554687 | 0.61133 | 0.554687 | 3 | 3 | 27.234444 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4b062c82af15ed00e6f2085e41250e48d057cc951adccacad30c976e3f7e44f8 | t1e_b654f3567a91a2f3bde3 | t1m_20157ba8c3ec1ff98024 | train | 2025-12-26T23:38:54.905858+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | si-settle-60-70-jun-2026 | 2025-12-21T23:33:29 | 2025-12-23T13:35:31 | 2025-12-23T13:35:31 | [
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] | [
"2025-12-21T23:33:29",
"2025-12-22T01:27:10",
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"2025-12-23T03:07:44",
"2025-12-23T03:15:17",
"2025-12-23T13:35:31"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? | This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened ... | emerging | null | 43 | 1,864 | 1.163318 | 12 | 0.583984 | 0.69678 | 0.583984 | 12 | 6 | 38.033889 | 0 | 0 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x893f70675597eeba1e8108a1e9da79387bb9f7bf56845481f246a1e8c9885101 | t1e_4a3eee78f53815bac973 | t1m_20157ba8c3ec1ff98024 | train | 2025-12-26T23:38:56.077779+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | si-settle-70-80-jun-2026 | 2025-12-22T02:59:51 | 2025-12-26T22:41:14 | 2025-12-26T22:41:14 | [
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"2025-12-23T11:49:23",
"2025-12-23T13:1... | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? | This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened ... | emerging | null | 43 | 1,864 | 1.594119 | 85 | 0.574632 | 0.67529 | 0.574632 | 85 | 23 | 115.689722 | 57 | 0.670588 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x0629c2518036e5d7705718d0e828e49d79ac40a919ec90a134f75c8cda35e89c | t1e_543fb0f1ffc247d76adb | t1m_7b9c70dee7f1ad1489e6 | train | 2025-12-28T17:38:13.865852+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-tim-walz-resign-by-june-30 | 2025-12-26T19:40:07 | 2025-12-28T16:06:27 | 2025-12-28T16:06:27 | [
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] | [
"2025-12-26T19:40:07",
"2025-12-27T04:25:07",
"2025-12-27T11:33:26",
"2025-12-27T14:34:03",
"2025-12-28T07:26:55",
"2025-12-28T14:05:12",
"2025-12-28T14:31:32",
"2025-12-28T16:06:27"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.),... | emerging | null | 32 | 769 | 1.13652 | 8 | 0.57776 | 0.69971 | 0.57776 | 8 | 5 | 44.438889 | 8 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xbf509397093d71086f561eac7ae3abb3d276a0135f5f06b1529c5c45cb8c6a5e | t1e_80dfd8732aa7dc9def4a | t1m_779b81d27afa805e84c5 | train | 2025-12-29T22:55:47.904767+00:00 | 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00 | will-rayan-cherki-break-the-premier-league-assists-record | 2025-12-27T14:45:10 | 2025-12-27T22:45:30 | 2025-12-27T22:45:30 | [
2004926533870199000,
2004959432225313000,
2004988175664456000,
2005047414542287000
] | [
"2025-12-27T14:45:10",
"2025-12-27T16:55:53",
"2025-12-27T18:50:06",
"2025-12-27T22:45:30"
] | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | Will Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rayan Cherki of Manchester City records more than 20 assists in the 2025-2026 English Premier League Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League (https://www.premierl... | liquid | null | 58 | 340 | 0.992707 | 4 | 0.59143 | 0.71875 | 0.59143 | 4 | 2 | 8.005556 | 4 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x9e0e621f21099a443d0deebbb624c8cf2e40ff0ebb51d67576e4fe7070974f3d | t1e_3aa990208731230441df | t1m_bdbee040ff15b196b4b2 | train | 2026-01-05T22:56:12.404932+00:00 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00+00:00 | israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30 | 2026-01-03T10:35:10 | 2026-01-05T15:13:28 | 2026-01-05T15:13:28 | [
2007400337666199600,
2007871553049141500,
2008145239064609000,
2008145443427914200,
2008149010784076000,
2008195149709574400
] | [
"2026-01-03T10:35:10",
"2026-01-04T17:47:37",
"2026-01-05T11:55:09",
"2026-01-05T11:55:57",
"2026-01-05T12:10:08",
"2026-01-05T15:13:28"
] | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market refers only to agreements which directly address bor... | emerging | null | 45 | 1,140 | 1.048874 | 6 | 0.568358 | 0.64111 | 0.568358 | 6 | 3 | 52.638333 | 6 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xbafb642f421ed7b46654936a9fb85adc1b278fa5388a47364da7e67a8df15eca | t1e_0e5bb2e37c9d6ed5a625 | t1m_c6536b4adf2728d92f80 | train | 2026-01-06T05:23:35.369000+00:00 | 2026-01-07T00:00:00+00:00 | new-stranger-things-episode-released-by-december-31-587-657-824-246 | 2025-12-30T14:00:01 | 2026-01-06T04:05:00 | 2026-01-06T04:05:00 | [
2006002335827247400,
2006003729753862700,
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2006051535717880000,
2006079705771086000,
2006089740798341000,
2006168427669447000,
2006168701934944500,
2006259094621946000,
2006349620062900500,
20064254002144876... | [
"2025-12-30T14:00:01",
"2025-12-30T14:05:33",
"2025-12-30T14:30:56",
"2025-12-30T14:49:48",
"2025-12-30T15:03:15",
"2025-12-30T16:20:17",
"2025-12-30T17:15:31",
"2025-12-30T19:07:27",
"2025-12-30T19:47:20",
"2025-12-31T01:00:00",
"2025-12-31T01:01:06",
"2025-12-31T07:00:17",
"2025-12-31T13:0... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, an “episo... | liquid | null | 55 | 1,067 | 1.527404 | 60 | 0.589169 | 0.70459 | 0.589169 | 60 | 21 | 158.083056 | 15 | 0.25 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x3c71361d4ba3647619c72661c30f9942d1fd1e9885dd982c280177a6884a773e | t1e_9ace09e4885ff7a9749b | t1m_48cccc49149b8a7f4308 | train | 2026-01-07T02:33:24.133634+00:00 | 2026-06-30T20:00:00+00:00 | spx-hit-8000-high-jun-2026 | 2026-01-03T18:00:07 | 2026-01-07T00:55:38 | 2026-01-07T00:55:38 | [
2007512310932238600,
2007958995030724900,
2008221346132545500,
2008618166096982500,
2008630831779090700,
2008647802298241500,
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] | [
"2026-01-03T18:00:07",
"2026-01-04T23:35:05",
"2026-01-05T16:57:34",
"2026-01-06T19:14:23",
"2026-01-06T20:04:43",
"2026-01-06T21:12:09",
"2026-01-07T00:55:38"
] | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular tra... | liquid | null | 45 | 834 | 1.145933 | 7 | 0.583216 | 0.62402 | 0.583216 | 7 | 7 | 78.925278 | 6 | 0.857143 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x4da3a5e2a18e682f7b6407ef1c853adf09de0a3e1a5637879827ac11792f5166 | t1e_2e7a5838a0feb7903dd8 | t1m_847f4cd3e31bb9e099ba | train | 2026-01-07T02:33:28.736000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T20:00:00+00:00 | spx-hit-6000-low-jun-2026-898-611 | 2025-12-31T06:58:22 | 2026-01-06T19:09:12 | 2026-01-06T19:09:12 | [
2006258612658962400,
2006287276276420900,
2006301515104113200,
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2007027064294281700,
2007027359913030000,
2007428860434841600,
2007455661311877400,
2007967790289014800,
20080604048035310... | [
"2025-12-31T06:58:22",
"2025-12-31T08:52:16",
"2025-12-31T09:48:51",
"2025-12-31T14:57:59",
"2026-01-01T05:16:56",
"2026-01-01T17:00:01",
"2026-01-01T20:57:09",
"2026-01-02T09:48:05",
"2026-01-02T09:51:55",
"2026-01-02T09:53:06",
"2026-01-03T12:28:31",
"2026-01-03T14:15:01",
"2026-01-05T00:1... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trad... | emerging | null | 44 | 833 | 1.348165 | 25 | 0.556191 | 0.65576 | 0.556191 | 25 | 15 | 156.180556 | 13 | 0.52 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1b89a207ec7cd01f825b5470222b45a4437325bc97bbc50b55a038b29ff7eb5d | t1e_2c5140e09fe40637eadd | t1m_7f4b433d99c438c72f02 | train | 2026-01-12T01:35:37.200799+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | jerome-powell-federally-charged-by-june-30 | 2026-01-12T00:06:22 | 2026-01-12T01:30:51 | 2026-01-12T01:30:51 | [
2010503585281262000,
2010503610942021600,
2010503784900735500,
2010503792890949600,
2010504110617821700,
2010504699590410800,
2010505394284572700,
2010505534290428200,
2010505865242230800,
2010506742321303600,
2010506909174956000,
2010506952225215000,
2010507190247768300,
20105075872848161... | [
"2026-01-12T00:06:22",
"2026-01-12T00:06:28",
"2026-01-12T00:07:10",
"2026-01-12T00:07:12",
"2026-01-12T00:08:27",
"2026-01-12T00:10:48",
"2026-01-12T00:13:34",
"2026-01-12T00:14:07",
"2026-01-12T00:15:26",
"2026-01-12T00:18:55",
"2026-01-12T00:19:35",
"2026-01-12T00:19:45",
"2026-01-12T00:2... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subd... | emerging | null | 43 | 562 | 1.645164 | 69 | 0.575026 | 0.66162 | 0.575026 | 69 | 45 | 1.408056 | 69 | 1 | moderate_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xbad704f2ae063322169bf3add805258727ecd3e6c0ad37fc7e6590c993375732 | t1e_8edcc1e3271f5ecbcfe2 | t1m_993f6defda88a7007573 | train | 2026-01-13T19:24:08.576736+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026 | 2026-01-06T23:48:28 | 2026-01-13T08:39:04 | 2026-01-13T08:39:04 | [
2008687139794415900,
2008704356347244800,
2008858466643792400,
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2008910667458265600,
2008931762156757000,
2009240826598051800,
2009308503165256000,
2009309381779722800,
2009310004248023000,
2009687866969076200,
2009807453702021000,
2009814049542775000,
20098717054229176... | [
"2026-01-06T23:48:28",
"2026-01-07T00:56:53",
"2026-01-07T11:09:15",
"2026-01-07T13:21:54",
"2026-01-07T14:36:41",
"2026-01-07T16:00:30",
"2026-01-08T12:28:37",
"2026-01-08T16:57:32",
"2026-01-08T17:01:02",
"2026-01-08T17:03:30",
"2026-01-09T18:05:00",
"2026-01-10T02:00:12",
"2026-01-10T02:2... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 12, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strik... | liquid | null | 46 | 1,525 | 1.28472 | 21 | 0.552664 | 0.63818 | 0.552664 | 21 | 12 | 152.843333 | 5 | 0.238095 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0xb740ce80109379eff6b906889bcc5e8e801c221a11a52dbad6e7f965a825bc78 | t1e_01f0d2f36833ee71b27f | t1m_a5dc7b41c59b14ac0f53 | train | 2026-01-17T03:17:24.699000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-elon-musk-buy-ryanair | 2026-01-16T13:07:52 | 2026-01-17T02:31:44 | 2026-01-17T02:31:44 | [
2012149807192981800,
2012201864901677000,
2012265080834933000,
2012271965151564000,
2012292674145952300,
2012300184991011000,
2012302564042178800,
2012323546337263900,
2012349011144188200,
2012352105617531400
] | [
"2026-01-16T13:07:52",
"2026-01-16T16:34:44",
"2026-01-16T20:45:56",
"2026-01-16T21:13:17",
"2026-01-16T22:35:34",
"2026-01-16T23:05:25",
"2026-01-16T23:14:52",
"2026-01-17T00:38:15",
"2026-01-17T02:19:26",
"2026-01-17T02:31:44"
] | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters i... | emerging | null | 27 | 825 | 1.291564 | 10 | 0.64209 | 0.76465 | 0.64209 | 10 | 10 | 13.397778 | 10 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x51cd99a4fd1b0ba0fa46548b3ef82f52a765b0caea8a7053b6dccef6507c75e5 | t1e_c44087534bf83d9dcad8 | t1m_63c542a18fed9e922414 | train | 2026-01-21T23:24:01.985153+00:00 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00+00:00 | will-chinas-2026-annual-gdp-growth-yy-be-between-3pt0-and-4pt0 | 2026-01-19T03:42:54 | 2026-01-21T05:52:59 | 2026-01-21T05:52:59 | [
2013094790175293400,
2013125253908807700,
2013653335178346800,
2013852302801810000
] | [
"2026-01-19T03:42:54",
"2026-01-19T05:43:57",
"2026-01-20T16:42:21",
"2026-01-21T05:52:59"
] | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? | This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the tab... | liquid | null | 67 | 1,465 | 1.054652 | 4 | 0.602293 | 0.66357 | 0.602293 | 4 | 4 | 50.168056 | 4 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x3dbeee81527f6d4868a6e500fca15d8905a6dda0e9b1f525145a4ad813bac98e | t1e_526c58bebcff0a65dab9 | t1m_69632ef6c779e12c96ec | train | 2026-01-23T20:09:40.757000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | will-spacex-ipo-by-june-30-2026-372-264-619 | 2026-01-21T09:51:25 | 2026-01-23T18:41:17 | 2026-01-23T18:41:17 | [
2013912306615251500,
2013968754124685600,
2014021679819702300,
2014060030518026200,
2014106045946208800,
2014329764002103800,
2014368417021604400,
2014368584516948000,
2014369562427273200,
2014370340747571200,
2014374157224472800,
2014375110572954000,
2014376604596670700,
20143794538711782... | [
"2026-01-21T09:51:25",
"2026-01-21T13:35:43",
"2026-01-21T17:06:01",
"2026-01-21T19:38:25",
"2026-01-21T22:41:16",
"2026-01-22T13:30:14",
"2026-01-22T16:03:50",
"2026-01-22T16:04:30",
"2026-01-22T16:08:23",
"2026-01-22T16:11:29",
"2026-01-22T16:26:39",
"2026-01-22T16:30:26",
"2026-01-22T16:3... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the li... | liquid | null | 33 | 569 | 1.445486 | 29 | 0.567501 | 0.67236 | 0.567501 | 29 | 23 | 56.831111 | 29 | 1 | high_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x1b3f1f2bec1c92ff851c9b02c3c8bbc320e5aac7bc371ad0f615c5521a4494e7 | t1e_20561b93431b19691702 | t1m_cae4a6163c86dde05582 | train | 2026-01-24T17:36:35.890816+00:00 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 | 100-tariff-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30 | 2026-01-23T20:23:59 | 2026-01-24T17:14:00 | 2026-01-24T17:14:00 | [
2014796275493798400,
2015062837903688000,
2015063083392139800,
2015065639669420300,
2015066539335074000,
2015066778527781000,
2015070438993346800,
2015070793332298000,
2015071322804806100,
2015071392228659500,
2015071520146567200,
2015074021876867000,
2015074872125162000,
20150760155889300... | [
"2026-01-23T20:23:59",
"2026-01-24T14:03:13",
"2026-01-24T14:04:11",
"2026-01-24T14:14:21",
"2026-01-24T14:17:55",
"2026-01-24T14:18:52",
"2026-01-24T14:33:25",
"2026-01-24T14:34:49",
"2026-01-24T14:36:56",
"2026-01-24T14:37:12",
"2026-01-24T14:37:43",
"2026-01-24T14:47:39",
"2026-01-24T14:5... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? | On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if... | emerging | null | 43 | 1,773 | 1.451539 | 25 | 0.595019 | 0.63867 | 0.595019 | 25 | 23 | 20.833611 | 25 | 1 | low_interest |
t1.kdd.v2 | 0x27651d9f3426ef2a4f907aa78f2ed69cdb22f2570d5c05d85f6f998b5b5a4524 | t1e_33846fd634debdd8ce09 | t1m_1abc2a66eecdaf15f4ab | train | 2026-01-26T19:00:12.567000+00:00 | 2026-06-30T17:30:00+00:00 | will-silver-si-hit-high-130-by-end-of-june | 2026-01-19T23:48:50 | 2026-01-26T18:09:00 | 2026-01-26T18:09:00 | [
2013398274099532300,
2013414009840546300,
2013536689579286500,
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2013701717032862000,
2013704696892920300,
2013755782211260400,
2013870136244216300,
2014248021630857500,
2014270266063348200,
20143725914697403... | [
"2026-01-19T23:48:50",
"2026-01-20T00:51:22",
"2026-01-20T08:58:51",
"2026-01-20T11:54:20",
"2026-01-20T13:44:12",
"2026-01-20T14:15:41",
"2026-01-20T16:08:01",
"2026-01-20T19:54:36",
"2026-01-20T20:06:27",
"2026-01-20T23:29:26",
"2026-01-21T07:03:51",
"2026-01-22T08:05:25",
"2026-01-22T09:3... | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Activ... | liquid | null | 48 | 1,499 | 1.66634 | 93 | 0.586347 | 0.67773 | 0.586347 | 93 | 41 | 162.336111 | 46 | 0.494624 | moderate_interest |
End of preview.
ICAIF26-EventXbench
EventX is a multimodal benchmark connecting ~9M Twitter/X posts from 1,152 KOL accounts to 11,952 Polymarket prediction markets (2021–2026). It defines seven tasks across two tiers: resolution (human-annotated ground truth) and forecast (deterministic labels from post-publication tick data).
This repository hosts the canonical KDD v2 release of the EventXBench data (tasks T1, T2, T4, T5, T6). The companion codebase is available at github.com/mlsys-io/EventXBench; the primary dataset mirror is mlsys-io/EventXBench.
Quick Start
pip install datasets
from datasets import load_dataset
# T1: train + test (2-way temporal split)
ds = load_dataset("hayshn/ICAIF26-EventXbench", "t1")
# T4/T5/T6: train + validation + test
ds = load_dataset("hayshn/ICAIF26-EventXbench", "t4")
Alternatively, use the repository loader (eventxbench.loader) with local_dir= pointing at this dataset's data directory.
Benchmark Overview (v2 counts)
| Task | Name | Tier | Output | Instances (v2) | Primary Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Market Volume Prediction | Forecast | 3-class (high_interest/moderate_interest/low_interest) |
984 | Macro-F1 |
| T2 | Post-to-Market Linking | Resolution | Market ID or NONE |
5,543 (5,000 human-gold eval) | Accuracy@1, MRR |
| T4 | Market Movement Prediction | Forecast | Direction × Magnitude | 10,934 | Dir-Acc, Mag-F1 |
| T5 | Volume & Price Impact | Forecast | Continuous + decay_class |
3,342 | Spearman ρ, Decay macro-F1 |
| T6 | Cross-Market Propagation | Forecast | 3-class (no_effect/primary_only/cross_market) |
4,583 | Macro-F1 |
T3 (Evidence Grading) is not included in this repository. See the primary mirror for the rebuilt T3 artifacts (train + gold).
Splits
| Task | Train | Validation | Test | Split policy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 709 | — | 275 | Event- and market-group atomic, temporal 60/0/40 |
| T2 | 543 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Train: silver + single-human; val/test: three-reviewer human gold, zero cross-split overlap |
| T4 | 2,875 | 2,268 | 5,791 | Event-cluster atomic temporal (2025-05→2026-06) |
| T5 | 889 | 692 | 1,761 | Same temporal policy as T4 (non-flat subset) |
| T6 | 766 | 1,225 | 2,592 | Event-cluster atomic temporal × horizons {1,3,7}d |
Task Descriptions
- T1 – Market Volume Prediction: predict the creation-cohort volume percentile of a market from pre-market social signals (post links within 7 days, cosine+entity-verified).
- T2 – Post-to-Market Linking: given a post and a frozen BGE-M3 candidate set (top-10), select the addressed market or
NONE. - T4 – Market Movement Prediction: predict the YES-price direction (
up/down/flat) and magnitude bucket at 1/3/7-day horizons for a market-day bundle. - T5 – Volume & Price Impact: predict continuous
price_impactandvolume_multipliertargets and thedecay_class(transient/sustained/reversal). - T6 – Cross-Market Propagation: predict whether a bundle's move propagates to sibling markets (graph v2, 35,526 edges / 14,739 nodes), labeled
no_effect/primary_only/cross_marketat 1/3/7-day horizons.
Label Distributions
- T1:
high_interest480,moderate_interest387,low_interest117 - T2: train LINK 402 / NONE 141; validation LINK 1,179 / NONE 1,321; test LINK 1,198 / NONE 1,302
- T4:
flat7,592;up1,730;down1,612 (direction) - T5:
sustained1,932;reversal807;transient300; (303 rows have no computable decay class) - T6:
cross_market2,796;no_effect1,366;primary_only421
Leakage Control
All forecast tasks (T1, T4, T5, T6) use event-disjoint temporal splits with an embargo ≥ the maximum label horizon. Features are computed as-of the decision time; labels are strictly in the future. T4/T5/T6 attach confound_flag when a different-author high-evidence post appears within the label window. T2's val/test sets are sealed human gold with zero instance, tweet, or exact-text overlap across splits.
Privacy
Raw tweet text is not included for non-T2 tasks; records carry tweet_ids for rehydration. T2's val/test include post text under the dataset's Data Usage Agreement (ID-only distribution otherwise). Market data from Polymarket is fully included.
Files
data/
├── t1/ train.jsonl, test.jsonl
├── t2/ t2_train.jsonl, t2_val.jsonl, t2_test.jsonl
├── t4/ train.jsonl, validation.jsonl, test.jsonl
├── t5/ train.jsonl, validation.jsonl, test.jsonl
└── t6/ train.jsonl, validation.jsonl, test.jsonl
License
- Data: CC BY-NC 4.0
- Tweet text excluded; use Twitter API for rehydration
- Polymarket data included under fair use for research
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