Unnamed: 0.1 int64 0 1.04k | Unnamed: 0 int64 0 1.05k | unique_id stringlengths 12 15 | speaker stringclasses 121
values | sentence stringlengths 5 471 | utterance stringlengths 15 2.92k ⌀ | -5 sentences stringlengths 2 1.13k | -200+ tokens stringlengths 2 1.87k | 1_opinion stringclasses 3
values | 2_mp stringclasses 3
values | 3_mp_context stringclasses 4
values | 4_stance_nli stringclasses 4
values | 5_stance_nli_context stringclasses 4
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,000 | 1,006 | 19941115_149_8 | MR. LINDSEY. | "[Laughter] I don't think they were talking about the Australians and New Zealanders, but here we are." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'If so, if we are bridging to a 50 basis point move, which everyone anticipates, then it would be like building a bridge to the middle of the river, which is actually another thing they do in Rumania, [Laughter] but so much for that. The key is that I think markets will probably thi... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Frankly, I think that had we done that at the time, the move would have been both appropriate and, I would add, sufficient.Why did we have the intervention?It wasn\'t because of volatility or disorderly markets.It wasn\'t a signal of policy change at the time.The word that was most... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,001 | 1,007 | 19950328_14_8 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "I gather that a number of the members have raised this issue." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'He is now Senior Vice President and Director of Research. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there discussion? Would somebody like to move it? SEVERAL. So move. '}] | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Ernie Patrikis, who has been serving in that position, has been elected with the approval of the Board of Governors to the position of First Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, effective June 1.His successor as the General Counsel of the New York Ban... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,002 | 1,008 | 19950706_307_10 | MR. BLINDER. | "Those are two very coherent thoughts that I can relate to on these ranges." | Right, I don't think there is either, and it is hard for me get exercised about this issue one way or another. Now, unlike the mumbling with great incoherence, there were two things that were said around the table that I can relate to very strongly. First, the kind of plan that Al Broaddus outlined seems to me greatly ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The reason basically is that the M2 range is wholly an accident of history. M2 has become a crucial variable in discussions on the Hill. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'It used to be M1. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Yes. I am just saying that if yo... | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'At any rate, that is where I would come out.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLINDER.', 'text': "I am in the Lindsey-Yellen camp here, but I must say that I have a little trouble articulating a view on the Ms. I find myself mumbli... | yes | yes | utterance | ambiguous | null |
1,003 | 1,009 | 19950926_114_4 | MR. FISHER. | "Even the expectation of it can create the disturbance." | I'll just insert there: A number of the European countries continue to prefer to hold a relatively large portion of their reserves in dollars for investment purposes. But in a crisis, they want to convert those into marks to be able to defend their own currency. There are two effects on the market that in the very shor... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The effect on the dollar, it seems to me, is largely secondary. It partly depends on what you mean by the dollar. The dollar tends to weaken relative to the deutschemark the less likely the EMU appears to be and therefore the more likely the deutschemark will be free to rise relativ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "You saw, for example, how Mr. Arthuis got beat up on Thursday by Mr. Waigel who came out at Majorca and said that maybe we just ought to postpone the EMU for a couple of years.Now, that's not necessarily anti-EMU, but it changes the whole timetable.The debate is heightened as the ti... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,004 | 1,010 | 19950926_248_1 | MR. MOSKOW. | "Mr. Chairman, we currently seem to have the luxury of a great deal of flexibility because the goals established for the Committee are ambiguous and in some cases contradictory." | Mr. Chairman, we currently seem to have the luxury of a great deal of flexibility because the goals established for the Committee are ambiguous and in some cases contradictory. But I think we are moving past that point. Once this issue is raised to the level of a serious discussion with hearings and so on, we are going... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'That is not what we ought to be doing with the statutory language. We should not be in that kind of position. The Committee has been operating for several years toward the goal of price stability, and I think any Committee group, however it is constituted, would have the same goa... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "I think this bill is a vast improvement over Humphrey-Hawkins, but I have some of the same concerns that were expressed by a number of people, notably Governor Blinder and Governor Yellen.Clearly, the responsibility and the objective of a central bank in the long term should be p... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,005 | 1,011 | 19950926_259_3 | MS. PHILLIPS. | "One of the major positives of the bill is the clear focus on price stability and the purchasing power of our currency." | I generally support the thrust of the bill. I think that it is useful to clear out some of the clutter in the current Humphrey-Hawkins Act. One of the major positives of the bill is the clear focus on price stability and the purchasing power of our currency. But I, too, would like to see a recognition that this focus i... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "I think that would be a terrible contribution to public policy. So, I am in favor of the bill, but I would like the bill to make it even more clear, although it does make it reasonably clear, that price stability is a means to an end. I don't like the requirement that t... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "It also would create an absolute zoo for the people who are of the hair-shirt school to appear not just once while the bill was being considered, but semiannually.It is likely that after the Chairman concluded his testimony, he would be followed by a group of learned ty... | yes | yes | null | null | null |
1,006 | 1,012 | 19951115_148_4 | MR. PRELL. | "But over limited periods of time, this relationship clearly has varied tremendously, and there isn't a very compelling short-run macro story that pushes you toward equilibrating these things or having the nominal GDP growth rate higher than the nominal interest rate." | We have discussed this in the past, and as I said, we pondered this question of whether having nominal interest rates running higher than nominal GDP growth over time is an unnatural relationship. It strikes one as being something that is unsustainable. We think of this, in terms of government budget positions and so o... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'If you take that away, it says bond yields are now expected to go back up from current levels while both nominal growth and real growth are going down. I am trying to imagine how those work out, especially how they would play out in the marketplace if people actually saw things that... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Your forecast now also assumes a 5-3/4 percent fed funds rate--and I will make some remarks about that not appearing to be as restrictive as previously envisaged--and the bond market has rallied because markets thought that we would lower the funds rate.If you take that away, it say... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
1,007 | 1,013 | 19960703_435_4 | MR. LINDSEY. | "If we saw a rise in inventory accumulation, to use your example, that suggested a sustained, above-trend rate of economic growth, we would move right away." | Mr. Chairman, yesterday I thought Governor Meyer laid out two issues very well. One of them is how GDP will grow relative to trend. Your analysis showed exactly how we would respond. If we saw a rise in inventory accumulation, to use your example, that suggested a sustained, above-trend rate of economic growth, we woul... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Given the upside risks that are associated with the projections and weighing that against the downside risk of a small tightening move, I think there is a very good case for moving now. If I were voting, I would put it in that context. But I probably would say that the asymmetric di... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, after listening to you, I have a better sense of the difficulties in this process--the uncertainty about the model or analytical framework that we use to assess the incoming data.I also appreciate Bill McDonough's comment that we need to have the public's confidence an... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | -5 sentences |
1,008 | 1,014 | 19960820_63_1 | MR. PRELL. | "I would just note that in this auto industry situation there also are peculiarities that people will be focusing on in terms of whether the union is able effectively to set a pattern after they have negotiated an agreement with one of the auto makers." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "That is not so clear to me. There have been significant strikes in the past where evident union defeats had a very damping effect on labor unions. For example, the flight controllers' strike, which was quashed, did more to suppress union power than almost anything else in th... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'So, I am wondering whether, even if a strike does not have an immediate inflationary impact, its potential to affect even nonunion relationships between labor and management may be significant going forward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That would depend on how th... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,009 | 1,015 | 19960820_175_2 | MR. MEYER. | "This position reflects my willingness to support trend growth at full employment with stable modest inflation in the near term, patiently awaiting opportunity down the road for renewed progress toward price stability." | Mr. Chairman, I also support your recommendation that we make no change in policy at this meeting and retain an asymmetric directive. This position reflects my willingness to support trend growth at full employment with stable modest inflation in the near term, patiently awaiting opportunity down the road for renewed p... | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': "And particularly because a move today would constitute a change of direction and a surprise to the public and to financial markets, I would prefer to have a slightly higher degree of confidence that a policy change is actually needed before making one. In situations where forecast u... | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': "So, the level of uncertainty about the future course of inflation under current policy settings is extremely high.And particularly because a move today would constitute a change of direction and a surprise to the public and to financial markets, I would prefer to have a slightly hig... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
1,010 | 1,016 | 19960924_35_13 | MR. MCTEER. | "We continue to hear increased anecdotes about tight labor markets and rising pressure on wages, and we hear more rumblings that the higher labor costs will have to be passed on in higher prices at some point in the future." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It is a risk, and certainly this is a part of the picture where households that have enjoyed very sizable income gains recently, and probably are continuing to do so in September, add a certain buoyancy in the economy that is visible in consumer sentiment. That is probably a response... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'To be sure, there have been sizable revisions at times in the past.On the broader point, as I tried to suggest, we certainly do see evidence that hiring has continued to be quite robust, probably outstripping the trend increase in labor force growth.However, I am not sure how much th... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,011 | 1,017 | 19961113_87_12 | MR. STERN. | "What I mean is that retailers are prone to complain and in fact do complain almost no matter how good things are." | As far as the District economy is concerned, there is little to report because the very healthy trends continue, as has been the case for a long time. Labor markets remain very tight, and I have no doubt that there are outright labor shortages that are restraining activity and expansion in some parts of the District. A... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'She was from Texas! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': "I don't know where she was from. "}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Massachusetts! [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'On the other hand, there is little evidence that the tightness is translating into upward pressures on prices.The labor picture is interesting.I have heard a lot of stories recently and have seen some of the problems that companies increasingly are experiencing in their efforts to f... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,012 | 1,018 | 19970520_120_4 | MR. GUYNN. | "In view of the hour, I will not repeat all the arguments." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I do not have strong feelings on the symmetry question because if we were to move in the intermeeting period, I think there would be some kind of consultation. I do think that tightening is eventually going to be needed, but since inflation has been rather benign recently, it seem... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Even though people would associate me with the deliberate approach, I think one could characterize a tightening move today as opportunistic.Finally, I do not think that inaction on our part will do anything to stem speculative behavior.If anything, inaction will foster such behavior... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,013 | 1,019 | 19970930_46_3 | MR. PRELL. | "We thought that somehow the world now was right and that we had a grasp of its functioning." | One of the risks we repeatedly have pointed to and then last time said it might not be such an asymmetric risk was the role of the stock market and the implications for consumption. As you may recall, the revised national income accounts that we received after the August meeting showed that the saving rate had fallen s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'We think this will put some damper on what the pickup in inflation otherwise would be going forward. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'As Jack mentioned, most of the good questions already have been asked. Mike... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It was not a sectoral phenomenon; it was a divergence between the labor market and the facilities market.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Since manufacturers cannot produce without workers, the labor market is still relevant here.We do hear, and there were some Beigebo... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,014 | 1,020 | 19980929_114_3 | MR. PARRY. | "That seems a little surprising given what happens to the equity market and particularly with the coefficient that you have in terms of net worth." | I have a question for Dave Stockton. The assumption in the forecast is that the saving rate remains basically constant at one half percent. That seems a little surprising given what happens to the equity market and particularly with the coefficient that you have in terms of net worth. I presume that what is happening i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'This suggests, I would think, that there is a risk of some substantial cumulation on the downside. Now, we could talk ourselves into being too gloomy about these things. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Sure. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It is useful to think about ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It is the affected economies in Asia that were much weaker than we had them before.But clearly in Latin America and, I think, in eastern Europe and Russia--which are not as important to our economy as to the economies of Europe as I tried to illustrate in my little story about our f... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,015 | 1,021 | 19980929_193_11 | MR. POOLE. | "It is not just an accident." | I support the proposed cut of 25 basis points. I have a preference for symmetry, but I don't believe the issue is very important. In the long run what we do is what determines the outcome, although I believe that what we say can be extremely important in the short run. So, we need to be clear about our direction and ou... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "I think it is the right measure of response at this point. As far as the tilt is concerned, I'm almost indifferent about it. I believe that we are going to be so driven by events that the tilt is likely to have no substantive influence on what we do. If we had a different disclosure... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I also think the current situation may require more than one 25 basis point cut in the funds rate in the future, and therefore I would prefer a directive with asymmetry toward ease.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text':... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
1,016 | 1,022 | 19990203_179_10 | MR. KELLEY. | "At the pace the economy has been growing, we are very likely getting close to those limits." | Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I would not have thought it possible, but somehow the Committee's policy dilemma continues to deepen rather than to show signs of beginning to resolve itself. The economy continues to surge ahead. We all, or at least most of us, believe that it should and will slow. But we have had good reason ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'We are not precluded from acting preemptively if new information were to tip the balance of risks to the outlook much more decisively toward an unacceptable probability of higher inflation. Such a probability, if it were to emerge, would in my judgment warrant a policy response. W... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Given the string of surprises we have had, including the strength of the fourth quarter, like many others here I approach a forecast of slowing with some skepticism and see the risks both internationally and perhaps even domestically as shaded slightly to the upside compared to th... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
1,017 | 1,023 | 19990630_103_19 | MR. POOLE. | "We have the same situation in agriculture and so forth that has existed for some time and has already been commented on by others, so I have nothing to add." | Mr. Chairman, it's obvious that everyone around the table is "chafing at the bit" to discuss policy, and I'm going to do my part to behave in a disciplined fashion here by just discussing the outlook. In the Eighth District the story is very simple; it's the same old story. We're seeing exactly the same kinds of things... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'We need to find a way to tactical symmetry--to a position where we, the public, and the markets think we are watchfully waiting but not looking for windmills to knock down. Because of the public perception of where we are, I do not think we can achieve tactical symmetry... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Clearly, the general posture of the Federal Reserve should always be to remain highly alert to imbalances, to forces which could end sustainable growth.Our policy regarding price stability on a continuing philosophical basis should be seen as symmetric, as being against... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,018 | 1,024 | 19990630_197_2 | MR. KOHN. | "I'm not sure of the subsequent moves because they weren't at every meeting." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'So the Committee is in a difficult position. It is a position, I guess, in which you might argue that neither symmetry nor asymmetry, as the markets potentially see it, accurately represents your perspective. Given the potential reactions to the announcements, the question is how to w... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "Yes, you think the next action is more likely to be a tightening than an easing, but you're not sure when.That's the information the markets are looking for and that's the sort of thing that used to be conveyed in the minutes and the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.That is now conveyed in ... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,019 | 1,025 | 19990630_228_16 | MR. BOEHNE. | "We ought to see how reality plays out and go from there." | I think we do need to raise the funds rate 25 basis points today. It seems to me that we are largely boxed in by our rhetoric and we ought to do it and get this episode behind us. There is a reasonable economic rationale for this, given the uncertainty that we're facing, and that is a "take-back" rationale from last fa... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "We ought to be ready to go in either direction. We know there's going to come a time when things will again be changing rapidly in a downward direction, and I would prefer to enter that environment with the risks in balance. We do not have balanced risks right now. I think we need t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "So I think announcing something that is interpreted by the market as meaning that we have already decided to raise rates at our next meeting, as I think the May announcement was interpreted, gets us into an undesirable position.I can tell you already that I don't want to go into the... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
1,020 | 1,026 | 20000628_151_1 | MR. GRAMLICH. | "I have enjoyed the discussion, too." | I have enjoyed the discussion, too. Let me cut it a slightly different way. On the inflation targeting issue I think there are three levels on which we can confront this. One is internally in our own heads. At that level I actually find inflation targeting quite useful. I have often thought in terms of that and in my s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': "So, I think at least some further discussion of this issue is worthwhile. And while I don't see us moving any time soon, I think having an opportunity to voice such issues around the table when we have these two-day meetings and to make some incremental progress toward a consensus is... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': "I have a view--I call it price stability plus a cushion--that may be a little higher than some others would have, but I think it is useful for us to have coherent internal discussions and appropriate transparency regarding what we're trying to do.I believe we should try to agree amon... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,021 | 1,027 | 20010131_155_6 | MR. FERGUSON. | "I assume it can be made manageable." | Let me ask you two factual questions. The Chairman just said that there is no effective exchange rate risk involved. On page 5 of your memo, one of the things you say is that the margin needed to protect against both the price risk and the exchange rate risk, even for dollar RPs against foreign governments, is uncertai... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': "I don't like the metaphor of either a cat's paw or front-running very much, Governor Ferguson. I don't think we're doing either one. Clearly, as Don and I have both said, it is our preference and intent to have the initial discussion of this be put forward through the Chairman's tes... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': "Given what I heard this morning, where almost no option seemed to be off the table, I'm a little concerned that we may be creating a presumption either at the Desk or in the markets that this is our preferred long-term solution.In some sense the exploratory process could be viewed... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,022 | 1,028 | 20010320_109_11 | MR. KELLEY. | "Our policy choice must be made in the face of this very fundamental uncertainty." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There's very little that I can add at this point about the economy, so I'll be brief. But let me try to summarize the situation. It was 100 percent predictable well in advance of the economic slowdown that going through such a period would be painful. We are now in a slowdown and it is painful.... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "I think the stance of monetary policy has to make two things clear to all observers. One is that we will ease when we need to, including today. The second is that in addition to today's move, we are prepared to act if and when necessary. Thank you. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAI... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "You no doubt recall that he was the economics minister for President Menem, whose political skills along with Mr. Cavallo's technical economics skills were a very favorable combination for the country.It's important that Argentina emerge from this situation in good shap... | yes | yes | sentence | neutral | null |
1,023 | 1,029 | 20010627_76_5 | MR. MEYER. | "Is that fair to say?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "In the study our staff used an approach involving a set of OECD countries, and they used OECD data. So the weakest link, if you will, is to find the data. It's certainly possible that if we focused our attention on one or two countries that produce data that they don't all have, we... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': "I went through the article to which Karen was referring, and I think ideally what one would like to have is a chart like Dan's Chart 3 for all the other countries--a chart that just sets out the decomposition of productivity growth.But as I remember, we can't get a BLS-type breakd... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,024 | 1,030 | 20020130_331_4 | MR. BROADDUS. | "But to come back to something that you said, Roger, this raises a question about the timing of the release of the minutes for the meeting." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'That is made public only with the release of the minutes, which of course occurs two weeks later. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'FOIA is an American law. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Exactly. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': "That's right. Pres... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "But I am uncomfortable about releasing the vote tally, including the name of a dissenter, by itself.The important information is really not found in the numerical tally but in the direction and the rationale for any dissents.Simply reporting the existence of a dissent after an FOMC m... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,025 | 1,031 | 20020626_24_6 | MR. ROLNICK. | "They don't show that that gives a stable relationship either." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "But if we break the period differently and look at the interval from 1992 to 2000, they actually do well in forecasting inflation, much as they did in the period prior to 1984. The third and last point I'd mention is that this study looked only at forecasting over a twelve-month per... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "We became much more anti-inflation in the 1980s and the 1990s than we were before, and that is likely to have influenced the behavior of inflation.So to some extent then, the poor performance of these inflation-forecasting models that are estimated with data going back to the 1960s ... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,026 | 1,032 | 20020924_132_3 | MR. BERNANKE. | "The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with many speakers today that the recovery remains disappointingly soft. The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity. The consumer and business sectors can't diverge indefin... | [{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'My feeling, however, is that if the market is impatient, maybe this is the time for us to be patient. On the other hand, as had to be done two or three weeks ago in this city, there was enough anecdotal evidence out there that it was deemed necessary to move to a slightly heightened ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'When you combine that with the fact that the banking industry is in a strong capital position, a strong liquid position, and has good asset quality, I can\'t figure out if that should be reassuring or a point of concern.I think, on balance, it\'s more reassuring.And coming back to so... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,027 | 1,033 | 20030625_34_4 | MR. STERN. | "If I ask myself why I might be concerned about deflation, exhibit 1 is one answer--the Depression." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I came out pretty much where you did with regard to the four questions--so I'll attenuate my remarks--but let me briefly explain why. We're having this conversation, at least from my perspective, because of our concerns about the possibility of deflation. If I ask myself why I might be concerne... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': "That's a consequence, and if we're not willing to accept that consequence, then we're not going to be able to carry through on a policy that's oriented toward forcing liquidity into the system and targeting some quantities. That's where I come out. I believe it's very important befor... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': "The more we get into targeting longer-term rates, the more directly responsible we are for capital gains and losses that people realize when we change the rate that we peg.What we want in my view is for the market essentially to be responsible for making those judgments and not the c... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
1,028 | 1,034 | 20030625_287_3 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity." | No, "sustainable" means any rate of growth for which the internal dynamic of that growth has the capability of continuing. Now, there are disagreements as to where that rate is. But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant accelerati... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': "I would argue against that on the ground that it will raise a lot of questions about what that means in these circumstances. I'd leave it alone. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Yes, I think it's a word of art in this type of statement. We've used it before; and in the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'But the actions taken were adjustments to what we termed colloquially "the discount rate."'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': "It's the same situation now except that it's the primary credit rate that we refer to as the discount ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,029 | 1,035 | 20031209_81_7 | MR. STOCKTON. | "Brian also mentioned hedging demands, but we think that was probably a relatively short-lived effect." | I mentioned the five-year inflation expectations, in part, because we don't think the five-to-ten-year inflation expectations are conditioning current wage and price setting decisions. I don't think anybody is setting a wage contract over the next year or two or three based on five-to-ten-year inflation expectations. B... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "The TIPS spread was mentioned in the staff briefing yesterday, and in your comments today you said that for the period over the next five years there has been a bit of up-and-down movement but that the five-to-ten-year period has shown a quite dramatic increase in inflation expectat... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "I'm certainly hearing a lot of comments about inflation from people I talk to, particularly because of concerns about the size of the budget deficit and the long-term problems of Social Security and Medicare, which we all know about.The TIPS spread was mentioned in the staff briefin... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,030 | 1,036 | 20040630_125_10 | MR. GAGNON. | "To our mind, that may explain why the pass-through seems to be higher lately." | I think we agree on what we've seen in the past and, of course, we both are wondering what will happen in the future. I'd just like to say that I believe a lot of the differences in our views come from how we think about commodities. That's an issue to consider going forward. We both looked at import prices, disaggrega... | [{'speaker': 'MS. GOLDBERG.', 'text': "I tend to go with the longer history in part because, after we've had a strong dollar period, foreign producers have been able to be quite profitable and build up their margins. That also gives them scope for accepting lower margins for a while, but that's a finite process. One in... | [{'speaker': 'MS. GOLDBERG.', 'text': "What I see is that the pass-through did decline; it seemed to be lower over the 1990s.But recent price observations, while on the low side, are still within historical bounds.So which is it?Do we have a permanently lower relationship, or are we on the low side of something that hi... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,031 | 1,037 | 20040630_261_11 | MR. OLINER. | "But even after you account for the fundamentals, there's a part of the increase that is hard to explain." | The biases referred to in that footnote were really technical biases in the construction of the two measures shown here, the rent measure and the price measure. Had we not adjusted for them, the rent-to-price ratio would have been much lower at the end point. So it would have looked more alarming. In part we think the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'The other question I have deals with chart 3, on housing prices. My question is about the footnote, which says that the rent-price ratio is adjusted for biases in the trends of both rents and prices. Is that where you pick up demographics and lifecycle factors? What are these bias... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': "We think that what monetary policy is doing is altering the balance of factors like the gap and resource utilization, for example.When we have moved to test a direct influence of money in our price equation, it's a little like a mirage on the highway:Sometimes it's there a little bi... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,032 | 1,038 | 20040810_71_18 | MR. MOSKOW. | "Of course, there are reasons to think that uncertainty might have risen; we've just talked about the oil prices, terrorist threats, and so on." | Light. Automakers will need a good August and September to clear dealer lots of their '04 model year cars; otherwise, they will need to reduce production schedules for their '05 models. Other sectors never really experienced much of a slowdown in June, and their activity remains strong. This pattern has been evident in... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'In particular, retailers told us that they saw something of a bounceback; and looking ahead, merchants sound quite bullish about the upcoming holiday season and are planning to build their inventories accordingly. As you know, light vehicle sales also bounced back in July. So far, r... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'On the first question, we get a sense from our Seventh District contacts that their business is good but apparently not robust enough to generate substantial hiring.We have received mixed reports on employment.Our contacts at temporary-help firms say that they are placing temporary ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,033 | 1,039 | 20040921_95_19 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "I don't recall that the G-5 said anything of great significance." | Not quite. Now, if I believed in the efficacy of intervention, which I do not, it would not surprise me to be sitting here and observing the sequence of events that Dino has described this morning. Dino is talking about reductions in volatility and related increases in stability. We're looking at an extraordinarily sta... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "There have been investment bank articles that I'm sure some of you have seen about how fifty years from now China, India, and Brazil are going to be the dominant economies in the globe.If that capital accumulation is realized, that's domestic demand in the rest of the world.The mar... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,034 | 1,040 | 20050202_149_4 | MR. STERN. | "In talking to employers, the general impression I get is that they are finding labor availability to be ample, although occasionally they've expressed some concern about the shortage of particular skills." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': "If we stop short in adjusting the fed funds rate now, we could find ourselves losing the ability to continue with the moderate steps that we've had the luxury of implementing so far. Over the past few months, many of us have noted that what we ultimately want is to move the fed fu... | [{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': "Nonetheless, when asked what will turn out to be the biggest economic surprise in 2005, the Blue Chip forecasters put higher-than-expected inflation at the top of their list.I'd like to be sure that we don't contribute to a continuation of last year's price level performance by un... | yes | null | null | null | null |
1,035 | 1,041 | 20050630_366_11 | MR. HOENIG. | "And the demand is incredible." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'Therefore, I believe that continuing on our recent policy path for the next few meetings would be the best course of action. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Let's take a break for coffee. But owing to what must have been a record question peri... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': "I have in mind here not only the fiscal deficit and the trade situation, but also the continued troubles in our domestic auto industry and, of course, problems in the airline industry.Both of these latter problem areas may have undesirable spillover effects to financial markets.It al... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
1,036 | 1,042 | 20060328_45_2 | MS. JOHNSON. | "So it is certainly true that the capital flows might be exogenous." | You know, one can approach a general equilibrium process in any number of ways, and finding things that are truly exogenous to that process is very, very difficult. So it is certainly true that the capital flows might be exogenous. However, my guess is they are responding to endogenous economic activity in the United S... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'What do we know about petroleum inventories, both crude and refined products, around the world? The Greenbook, Part 2, has the U.S. data, but what do we know about elsewhere in the world? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I just cannot resist the temptation to make a brief res... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'That is why they are moving the funds.And it is probably better shorthand to say that the current account is financing the capital account inflow as a consequence of where the exchange rate is bid with the capital flowing in.My question relates to a different topic--the oil price sit... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,037 | 1,043 | 20060920_65_1 | MR. FISHER. | "Well, again, it's just something I'm interested in." | Well, again, it's just something I'm interested in. It's not unimportant, but I have a more important question. Karen, I noticed last week that the International Monetary Fund forecasts global economic growth, non-U.S. growth, of around 5 percent. Our number is 31/4 percent. What is the difference between us? If we're ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': "Whether that's a matter of days or weeks or maybe longer, it's hard to put a time dimension on it. I was trying to make the point in my remarks, especially about natural gas, that most people just assume that last week's price movements in natural gas--I believe a very sharp drop occur... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': "I think there may be something to what you suggest, but my own assertion is that it would probably have a short-term effect on prices.Whether that's a matter of days or weeks or maybe longer, it's hard to put a time dimension on it.I was trying to make the point in my remarks, especial... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,038 | 1,044 | 20070918_66_4 | MR. PLOSSER. | "At the same time, I say to myself, "Well, you know, now it is about at the level that the Board has been forecasting all along."" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'There is not a lot of predictive content that way. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': "Yes. That's really my point. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': "Therefore, in some sense, to be consistent with the forecast, we would have to continue to expect that consumers are g... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'That would raise the forecast, as I said.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'My impression from studies and empirical work is that consumer sentiment usually is a much bigger coincident indicator than it is a forecasting tool.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': "Yes, it ... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,039 | 1,045 | 20080318_69_7 | MR. PLOSSER. | "Uncertainty about valuations seems to be the root cause of liquidity problems." | Well, I've been supportive of those, and I want to compliment the New York Desk and the people who have worked on this because I think they are very innovative. I'm not clear how successful these instruments will be, and they are not without their own set of risks of creating some potentially dangerous expectations reg... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': "Fourth and finally, like everyone else, I am very concerned about the developments in the financial markets. I've been supportive of the steps we've taken to enhance liquidity in the markets through the TAF, the TSLF, the PDCF, or whatever. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'te... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': "For example, the real funds rate is now minus 1 percent, which is below the more pessimistic Greenbook-consistent r* of minus 0.5 percent given in the Bluebook, if you measure the real rate as the nominal funds rate minus the Greenbook's one-quarter-ahead forecasted headline PCE.Th... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,040 | 1,046 | 20080430_281_6 | MR. PLOSSER. | "I just wondered if there are differences in their approaches as to how often they interact in the marketplace." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'For sure, but just thinking about whether there are other things that we could do related to stigma might be worthwhile in this context. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': "Absolutely, we agree. Of course, when the Board adopted the primary credit program in 2003, we gave a l... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': "I don't remember the exact legal wording, but at least within the current law, to back away from that might be difficult.Of course, you could conceivably pursue a change in the law, but I think we would want to think about the pros and cons of that before you went in that direction... | no | null | null | null | null |
1,041 | 1,047 | 20080430_297_14 | MR. BULLARD. | "The corridor would be narrow." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This is a proposal for study. The timeline seems fine to me. The study period is pretty important in this case because it is not clear to me which option is best, and so I think maybe we should keep more of the options on the table. One question that I have is, To what extent are current reserv... | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'Also, I would just say on the question of options 2 and 5 versus options 3 and 4, an advantage that the paper attaches to having voluntary targets is the ability to moderate the volatility in the federal funds rate. So it does seem to me that--I understand it may be difficult--the p... | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': "I would see it as an advantage of paying interest on reserves.If you are discussing this right now with the Congress and it is much discussed in the press, I think it is kind of odd to come out with a paper that doesn't even mention it.Maybe there are disadvantages and not just adva... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,042 | 1,048 | 20080625_147_18 | MR. BULLARD. | "Surely by now few market participants would be surprised to encounter the failure of certain institutions." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. U.S. economic data have been stronger than expected during the intermeeting period. The earlier, very aggressive moves in January and March taken by the FOMC were viewed in part as insurance against the possibility of a very serious downturn brought on by financial market turmoil. That very ser... | [{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': 'But while I do believe that the next policy action will be a rate hike, the potential for the recovery to sputter makes me cautious about embarking on an upward trajectory for the fed funds rate just yet. I believe that the language in alternative B conveys the right sense of dire... | [{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': "Nevertheless, I am somewhat more comfortable with the prospects for economic activity than I was in April.At the same time, I can't easily dismiss the recent behavior of energy and some other commodity prices.I found the Bluebook's supplemental analysis on oil prices, inflation ex... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1,043 | 1,049 | 20080805_5_2 | MR. DUDLEY. | "That is a big question." | Okay. That is a big question. [Laughter] | [{'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': "We are 12 months in. Isn't this likely to take 12 more months or longer? Financial institutions have a lot to digest. What do you think financial institutions and markets have to do to signal a return to acceptable functionality? What are we looking for, and what changes in fundament... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Bill.Any questions for Bill?President Evans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Bill, at our recent intermeeting call, I wasn\'t expecting the characterization of the financial stresses to sort of backtrack to the point that it ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.