report.json

{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-29T10:47:33Z",
  "candidate_version": "0.9.0",
  "architecture": {
    "domains": [
      {
        "domain_id": "climate",
        "n_features": 135,
        "n_targets": 5,
        "schema_hash": "3d69ae3938606367",
        "feature_names": [
          "log_gap_last",
          "gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_gap",
          "gap_cv",
          "log_gap_prev",
          "log_tmax_c_last",
          "tmax_c_ratio_median",
          "log_median_tmax_c",
          "tmax_c_logsd",
          "tmax_c_available",
          "tmax_c_missing_rate",
          "log_trange_c_last",
          "trange_c_ratio_median",
          "log_median_trange_c",
          "trange_c_logsd",
          "trange_c_available",
          "trange_c_missing_rate",
          "log_anomaly_c_last",
          "anomaly_c_ratio_median",
          "log_median_anomaly_c",
          "anomaly_c_logsd",
          "anomaly_c_available",
          "anomaly_c_missing_rate",
          "log_precip_mm_last",
          "precip_mm_ratio_median",
          "log_median_precip_mm",
          "precip_mm_logsd",
          "precip_mm_available",
          "precip_mm_missing_rate",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__cold_anomaly",
          "cat_last__cool",
          "cat_last__seasonal_normal",
          "cat_last__warm",
          "cat_last__heat_anomaly",
          "cat_last__wet_day",
          "cat_last__extreme_precip",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "cat_rate__cold_anomaly",
          "cat_rate__cool",
          "cat_rate__seasonal_normal",
          "cat_rate__warm",
          "cat_rate__heat_anomaly",
          "cat_rate__wet_day",
          "cat_rate__extreme_precip",
          "cat_rate__unknown",
          "cat_entropy",
          "unknown_cat_rate",
          "cat_switch_rate",
          "source_count_last",
          "source_count_mean",
          "log_confirmations",
          "contradiction_rate",
          "ref_resid_gap",
          "ref_resid_magnitude",
          "ref_resid_category",
          "ref_disagreement",
          "ref_avail_gap",
          "ref_avail_magnitude",
          "ref_avail_category",
          "gap_trend",
          "cat_concentration",
          "recent_vs_old_gap",
          "tmax_c_trend",
          "trange_c_trend",
          "anomaly_c_trend",
          "precip_mm_trend",
          "log_n_past",
          "is_cold_start",
          "censored_horizon",
          "gap_ratio_median_short",
          "gap_ratio_median_long",
          "gap_cv_short",
          "gap_cv_long",
          "gap_median_short_over_long",
          "tmax_c_ratio_median_short",
          "tmax_c_ratio_median_long",
          "tmax_c_median_short_over_long",
          "trange_c_ratio_median_short",
          "trange_c_ratio_median_long",
          "trange_c_median_short_over_long",
          "anomaly_c_ratio_median_short",
          "anomaly_c_ratio_median_long",
          "anomaly_c_median_short_over_long",
          "precip_mm_ratio_median_short",
          "precip_mm_ratio_median_long",
          "precip_mm_median_short_over_long",
          "log_count_24h",
          "log_count_7d",
          "log_count_30d",
          "rate_ratio_24h_30d",
          "hour_sin",
          "hour_cos",
          "dow_sin",
          "dow_cos",
          "doy_sin",
          "doy_cos",
          "tmax_c_vs_climatology",
          "tmax_c_climatology_available",
          "trange_c_vs_climatology",
          "trange_c_climatology_available",
          "anomaly_c_vs_climatology",
          "anomaly_c_climatology_available",
          "precip_mm_vs_climatology",
          "precip_mm_climatology_available",
          "gap_quantile_pos",
          "gap_exceed_p95_rate",
          "tmax_c_skew",
          "tmax_c_kurtosis",
          "tmax_c_quantile_pos",
          "tmax_c_exceed_p95_rate",
          "tmax_c_hill_tail",
          "trange_c_skew",
          "trange_c_kurtosis",
          "trange_c_quantile_pos",
          "trange_c_exceed_p95_rate",
          "trange_c_hill_tail",
          "anomaly_c_skew",
          "anomaly_c_kurtosis",
          "anomaly_c_quantile_pos",
          "anomaly_c_exceed_p95_rate",
          "anomaly_c_hill_tail",
          "precip_mm_skew",
          "precip_mm_kurtosis",
          "precip_mm_quantile_pos",
          "precip_mm_exceed_p95_rate",
          "precip_mm_hill_tail",
          "resid_ewma_fast",
          "resid_ewma_slow",
          "resid_drift",
          "resid_median",
          "resid_seasonal_naive",
          "baseline_spread",
          "baseline_max_abs",
          "baseline_available"
        ]
      },
      {
        "domain_id": "hydrology",
        "n_features": 120,
        "n_targets": 5,
        "schema_hash": "5d147bb24c2cbe00",
        "feature_names": [
          "log_gap_last",
          "gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_gap",
          "gap_cv",
          "log_gap_prev",
          "log_discharge_cfs_last",
          "discharge_cfs_ratio_median",
          "log_median_discharge_cfs",
          "discharge_cfs_logsd",
          "discharge_cfs_available",
          "discharge_cfs_missing_rate",
          "log_abs_daily_change_cfs_last",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_ratio_median",
          "log_median_abs_daily_change_cfs",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_logsd",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_available",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_missing_rate",
          "log_rise_ratio_last",
          "rise_ratio_ratio_median",
          "log_median_rise_ratio",
          "rise_ratio_logsd",
          "rise_ratio_available",
          "rise_ratio_missing_rate",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__very_low_flow",
          "cat_last__low_flow",
          "cat_last__normal_flow",
          "cat_last__elevated_flow",
          "cat_last__high_flow",
          "cat_last__flood_flow",
          "cat_last__no_flow",
          "cat_last__estimated_record",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "cat_rate__very_low_flow",
          "cat_rate__low_flow",
          "cat_rate__normal_flow",
          "cat_rate__elevated_flow",
          "cat_rate__high_flow",
          "cat_rate__flood_flow",
          "cat_rate__no_flow",
          "cat_rate__estimated_record",
          "cat_rate__unknown",
          "cat_entropy",
          "unknown_cat_rate",
          "cat_switch_rate",
          "source_count_last",
          "source_count_mean",
          "log_confirmations",
          "contradiction_rate",
          "ref_resid_gap",
          "ref_resid_magnitude",
          "ref_resid_category",
          "ref_disagreement",
          "ref_avail_gap",
          "ref_avail_magnitude",
          "ref_avail_category",
          "gap_trend",
          "cat_concentration",
          "recent_vs_old_gap",
          "discharge_cfs_trend",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_trend",
          "rise_ratio_trend",
          "log_n_past",
          "is_cold_start",
          "censored_horizon",
          "gap_ratio_median_short",
          "gap_ratio_median_long",
          "gap_cv_short",
          "gap_cv_long",
          "gap_median_short_over_long",
          "discharge_cfs_ratio_median_short",
          "discharge_cfs_ratio_median_long",
          "discharge_cfs_median_short_over_long",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_ratio_median_short",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_ratio_median_long",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_median_short_over_long",
          "rise_ratio_ratio_median_short",
          "rise_ratio_ratio_median_long",
          "rise_ratio_median_short_over_long",
          "log_count_24h",
          "log_count_7d",
          "log_count_30d",
          "rate_ratio_24h_30d",
          "hour_sin",
          "hour_cos",
          "dow_sin",
          "dow_cos",
          "doy_sin",
          "doy_cos",
          "discharge_cfs_vs_climatology",
          "discharge_cfs_climatology_available",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_vs_climatology",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_climatology_available",
          "rise_ratio_vs_climatology",
          "rise_ratio_climatology_available",
          "gap_quantile_pos",
          "gap_exceed_p95_rate",
          "discharge_cfs_skew",
          "discharge_cfs_kurtosis",
          "discharge_cfs_quantile_pos",
          "discharge_cfs_exceed_p95_rate",
          "discharge_cfs_hill_tail",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_skew",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_kurtosis",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_quantile_pos",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_exceed_p95_rate",
          "abs_daily_change_cfs_hill_tail",
          "rise_ratio_skew",
          "rise_ratio_kurtosis",
          "rise_ratio_quantile_pos",
          "rise_ratio_exceed_p95_rate",
          "rise_ratio_hill_tail",
          "resid_ewma_fast",
          "resid_ewma_slow",
          "resid_drift",
          "resid_median",
          "resid_seasonal_naive",
          "baseline_spread",
          "baseline_max_abs",
          "baseline_available"
        ]
      },
      {
        "domain_id": "markets",
        "n_features": 137,
        "n_targets": 5,
        "schema_hash": "ff0fef09349ea5a3",
        "feature_names": [
          "log_gap_last",
          "gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_gap",
          "gap_cv",
          "log_gap_prev",
          "log_abs_return_bps_last",
          "abs_return_bps_ratio_median",
          "log_median_abs_return_bps",
          "abs_return_bps_logsd",
          "abs_return_bps_available",
          "abs_return_bps_missing_rate",
          "log_range_bps_last",
          "range_bps_ratio_median",
          "log_median_range_bps",
          "range_bps_logsd",
          "range_bps_available",
          "range_bps_missing_rate",
          "log_volume_base_last",
          "volume_base_ratio_median",
          "log_median_volume_base",
          "volume_base_logsd",
          "volume_base_available",
          "volume_base_missing_rate",
          "log_notional_usd_last",
          "notional_usd_ratio_median",
          "log_median_notional_usd",
          "notional_usd_logsd",
          "notional_usd_available",
          "notional_usd_missing_rate",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__quiet_drift",
          "cat_last__mild_up",
          "cat_last__mild_down",
          "cat_last__strong_up",
          "cat_last__strong_down",
          "cat_last__shock_up",
          "cat_last__shock_down",
          "cat_last__illiquid_session",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "cat_rate__quiet_drift",
          "cat_rate__mild_up",
          "cat_rate__mild_down",
          "cat_rate__strong_up",
          "cat_rate__strong_down",
          "cat_rate__shock_up",
          "cat_rate__shock_down",
          "cat_rate__illiquid_session",
          "cat_rate__unknown",
          "cat_entropy",
          "unknown_cat_rate",
          "cat_switch_rate",
          "source_count_last",
          "source_count_mean",
          "log_confirmations",
          "contradiction_rate",
          "ref_resid_gap",
          "ref_resid_magnitude",
          "ref_resid_category",
          "ref_disagreement",
          "ref_avail_gap",
          "ref_avail_magnitude",
          "ref_avail_category",
          "gap_trend",
          "cat_concentration",
          "recent_vs_old_gap",
          "abs_return_bps_trend",
          "range_bps_trend",
          "volume_base_trend",
          "notional_usd_trend",
          "log_n_past",
          "is_cold_start",
          "censored_horizon",
          "gap_ratio_median_short",
          "gap_ratio_median_long",
          "gap_cv_short",
          "gap_cv_long",
          "gap_median_short_over_long",
          "abs_return_bps_ratio_median_short",
          "abs_return_bps_ratio_median_long",
          "abs_return_bps_median_short_over_long",
          "range_bps_ratio_median_short",
          "range_bps_ratio_median_long",
          "range_bps_median_short_over_long",
          "volume_base_ratio_median_short",
          "volume_base_ratio_median_long",
          "volume_base_median_short_over_long",
          "notional_usd_ratio_median_short",
          "notional_usd_ratio_median_long",
          "notional_usd_median_short_over_long",
          "log_count_24h",
          "log_count_7d",
          "log_count_30d",
          "rate_ratio_24h_30d",
          "hour_sin",
          "hour_cos",
          "dow_sin",
          "dow_cos",
          "doy_sin",
          "doy_cos",
          "abs_return_bps_vs_climatology",
          "abs_return_bps_climatology_available",
          "range_bps_vs_climatology",
          "range_bps_climatology_available",
          "volume_base_vs_climatology",
          "volume_base_climatology_available",
          "notional_usd_vs_climatology",
          "notional_usd_climatology_available",
          "gap_quantile_pos",
          "gap_exceed_p95_rate",
          "abs_return_bps_skew",
          "abs_return_bps_kurtosis",
          "abs_return_bps_quantile_pos",
          "abs_return_bps_exceed_p95_rate",
          "abs_return_bps_hill_tail",
          "range_bps_skew",
          "range_bps_kurtosis",
          "range_bps_quantile_pos",
          "range_bps_exceed_p95_rate",
          "range_bps_hill_tail",
          "volume_base_skew",
          "volume_base_kurtosis",
          "volume_base_quantile_pos",
          "volume_base_exceed_p95_rate",
          "volume_base_hill_tail",
          "notional_usd_skew",
          "notional_usd_kurtosis",
          "notional_usd_quantile_pos",
          "notional_usd_exceed_p95_rate",
          "notional_usd_hill_tail",
          "resid_ewma_fast",
          "resid_ewma_slow",
          "resid_drift",
          "resid_median",
          "resid_seasonal_naive",
          "baseline_spread",
          "baseline_max_abs",
          "baseline_available"
        ]
      },
      {
        "domain_id": "seismic",
        "n_features": 137,
        "n_targets": 4,
        "schema_hash": "2cd75de68c3480f8",
        "feature_names": [
          "log_gap_last",
          "gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_gap",
          "gap_cv",
          "log_gap_prev",
          "log_magnitude_last",
          "magnitude_ratio_median",
          "log_median_magnitude",
          "magnitude_logsd",
          "magnitude_available",
          "magnitude_missing_rate",
          "log_depth_km_last",
          "depth_km_ratio_median",
          "log_median_depth_km",
          "depth_km_logsd",
          "depth_km_available",
          "depth_km_missing_rate",
          "log_azimuthal_gap_last",
          "azimuthal_gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_azimuthal_gap",
          "azimuthal_gap_logsd",
          "azimuthal_gap_available",
          "azimuthal_gap_missing_rate",
          "log_rms_residual_last",
          "rms_residual_ratio_median",
          "log_median_rms_residual",
          "rms_residual_logsd",
          "rms_residual_available",
          "rms_residual_missing_rate",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__micro_shallow",
          "cat_last__light_shallow",
          "cat_last__moderate_shallow",
          "cat_last__strong_event",
          "cat_last__intermediate_depth",
          "cat_last__deep_focus",
          "cat_last__quarry_blast",
          "cat_last__other_event",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "cat_rate__micro_shallow",
          "cat_rate__light_shallow",
          "cat_rate__moderate_shallow",
          "cat_rate__strong_event",
          "cat_rate__intermediate_depth",
          "cat_rate__deep_focus",
          "cat_rate__quarry_blast",
          "cat_rate__other_event",
          "cat_rate__unknown",
          "cat_entropy",
          "unknown_cat_rate",
          "cat_switch_rate",
          "source_count_last",
          "source_count_mean",
          "log_confirmations",
          "contradiction_rate",
          "ref_resid_gap",
          "ref_resid_magnitude",
          "ref_resid_category",
          "ref_disagreement",
          "ref_avail_gap",
          "ref_avail_magnitude",
          "ref_avail_category",
          "gap_trend",
          "cat_concentration",
          "recent_vs_old_gap",
          "magnitude_trend",
          "depth_km_trend",
          "azimuthal_gap_trend",
          "rms_residual_trend",
          "log_n_past",
          "is_cold_start",
          "censored_horizon",
          "gap_ratio_median_short",
          "gap_ratio_median_long",
          "gap_cv_short",
          "gap_cv_long",
          "gap_median_short_over_long",
          "magnitude_ratio_median_short",
          "magnitude_ratio_median_long",
          "magnitude_median_short_over_long",
          "depth_km_ratio_median_short",
          "depth_km_ratio_median_long",
          "depth_km_median_short_over_long",
          "azimuthal_gap_ratio_median_short",
          "azimuthal_gap_ratio_median_long",
          "azimuthal_gap_median_short_over_long",
          "rms_residual_ratio_median_short",
          "rms_residual_ratio_median_long",
          "rms_residual_median_short_over_long",
          "log_count_24h",
          "log_count_7d",
          "log_count_30d",
          "rate_ratio_24h_30d",
          "hour_sin",
          "hour_cos",
          "dow_sin",
          "dow_cos",
          "doy_sin",
          "doy_cos",
          "magnitude_vs_climatology",
          "magnitude_climatology_available",
          "depth_km_vs_climatology",
          "depth_km_climatology_available",
          "azimuthal_gap_vs_climatology",
          "azimuthal_gap_climatology_available",
          "rms_residual_vs_climatology",
          "rms_residual_climatology_available",
          "gap_quantile_pos",
          "gap_exceed_p95_rate",
          "magnitude_skew",
          "magnitude_kurtosis",
          "magnitude_quantile_pos",
          "magnitude_exceed_p95_rate",
          "magnitude_hill_tail",
          "depth_km_skew",
          "depth_km_kurtosis",
          "depth_km_quantile_pos",
          "depth_km_exceed_p95_rate",
          "depth_km_hill_tail",
          "azimuthal_gap_skew",
          "azimuthal_gap_kurtosis",
          "azimuthal_gap_quantile_pos",
          "azimuthal_gap_exceed_p95_rate",
          "azimuthal_gap_hill_tail",
          "rms_residual_skew",
          "rms_residual_kurtosis",
          "rms_residual_quantile_pos",
          "rms_residual_exceed_p95_rate",
          "rms_residual_hill_tail",
          "resid_ewma_fast",
          "resid_ewma_slow",
          "resid_drift",
          "resid_median",
          "resid_seasonal_naive",
          "baseline_spread",
          "baseline_max_abs",
          "baseline_available"
        ]
      },
      {
        "domain_id": "wildfire",
        "n_features": 135,
        "n_targets": 6,
        "schema_hash": "cc1cddf8c7ac8333",
        "feature_names": [
          "log_gap_last",
          "gap_ratio_median",
          "log_median_gap",
          "gap_cv",
          "log_gap_prev",
          "log_frp_mw_last",
          "frp_mw_ratio_median",
          "log_median_frp_mw",
          "frp_mw_logsd",
          "frp_mw_available",
          "frp_mw_missing_rate",
          "log_brightness_k_last",
          "brightness_k_ratio_median",
          "log_median_brightness_k",
          "brightness_k_logsd",
          "brightness_k_available",
          "brightness_k_missing_rate",
          "log_detections_last",
          "detections_ratio_median",
          "log_median_detections",
          "detections_logsd",
          "detections_available",
          "detections_missing_rate",
          "log_frp_growth_last",
          "frp_growth_ratio_median",
          "log_median_frp_growth",
          "frp_growth_logsd",
          "frp_growth_available",
          "frp_growth_missing_rate",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__sparse_detection",
          "cat_last__cluster_forming",
          "cat_last__active_front",
          "cat_last__intense_front",
          "cat_last__extreme_front",
          "cat_last__night_detection",
          "cat_last__low_confidence",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "cat_rate__sparse_detection",
          "cat_rate__cluster_forming",
          "cat_rate__active_front",
          "cat_rate__intense_front",
          "cat_rate__extreme_front",
          "cat_rate__night_detection",
          "cat_rate__low_confidence",
          "cat_rate__unknown",
          "cat_entropy",
          "unknown_cat_rate",
          "cat_switch_rate",
          "source_count_last",
          "source_count_mean",
          "log_confirmations",
          "contradiction_rate",
          "ref_resid_gap",
          "ref_resid_magnitude",
          "ref_resid_category",
          "ref_disagreement",
          "ref_avail_gap",
          "ref_avail_magnitude",
          "ref_avail_category",
          "gap_trend",
          "cat_concentration",
          "recent_vs_old_gap",
          "frp_mw_trend",
          "brightness_k_trend",
          "detections_trend",
          "frp_growth_trend",
          "log_n_past",
          "is_cold_start",
          "censored_horizon",
          "gap_ratio_median_short",
          "gap_ratio_median_long",
          "gap_cv_short",
          "gap_cv_long",
          "gap_median_short_over_long",
          "frp_mw_ratio_median_short",
          "frp_mw_ratio_median_long",
          "frp_mw_median_short_over_long",
          "brightness_k_ratio_median_short",
          "brightness_k_ratio_median_long",
          "brightness_k_median_short_over_long",
          "detections_ratio_median_short",
          "detections_ratio_median_long",
          "detections_median_short_over_long",
          "frp_growth_ratio_median_short",
          "frp_growth_ratio_median_long",
          "frp_growth_median_short_over_long",
          "log_count_24h",
          "log_count_7d",
          "log_count_30d",
          "rate_ratio_24h_30d",
          "hour_sin",
          "hour_cos",
          "dow_sin",
          "dow_cos",
          "doy_sin",
          "doy_cos",
          "frp_mw_vs_climatology",
          "frp_mw_climatology_available",
          "brightness_k_vs_climatology",
          "brightness_k_climatology_available",
          "detections_vs_climatology",
          "detections_climatology_available",
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          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
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        "slices": {
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          "flow_scale": {
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        "status": "candidate_not_promoted",
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        "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one."
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    },
    "markets": {
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        "domain_id": "markets",
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        "schema_hash": "ff0fef09349ea5a3",
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        "context_dims": [
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          {
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          {
            "name": "volume_regime_shift",
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            "channel": "notional_usd",
            "shift": 0.6
          },
          {
            "name": "dislocation_ahead",
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            "channel": "abs_return_bps",
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            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of abs_return_bps"
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            "over": [
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        ],
        "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0,
        "permitted": [
          "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)",
          "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)",
          "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators",
          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
          "regime indicators derived from past observations only",
          "cold-start state",
          "unavailable-reference mask",
          "censored-horizon indicator"
        ],
        "forbidden": [
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          "future events or future aggregates",
          "ownership labels",
          "private partner data",
          "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes"
        ],
        "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature."
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 49759,
                "auroc": 0.6776204494721509,
                "prevalence": 0.2383287400007248
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 42346,
                "auroc": 0.6585858613559076,
                "prevalence": 0.20450574159622192
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            },
            "usdc": {
              "regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 432,
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                "prevalence": 0.06481481343507767
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 480,
                "auroc": 0.638462167020755,
                "prevalence": 0.12083332985639572
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 536,
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                "prevalence": 0.29291045665740967
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 480,
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                "prevalence": 0.05000000074505806
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            }
          },
          "liquidity_tier": {
            "tier_1": {
              "regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 504,
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                "prevalence": 0.125
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 538,
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                "prevalence": 0.07620818167924881
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "prevalence": 0.10071942210197449
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "prevalence": 0.0535714291036129
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            },
            "tier_2": {
              "regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 1735,
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                "prevalence": 0.42997118830680847
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "auroc": 0.6620193076111626,
                "prevalence": 0.23303046822547913
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 2046,
                "auroc": 0.7590142407215578,
                "prevalence": 0.24046920239925385
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 2125,
                "auroc": 0.8431700553883119,
                "prevalence": 0.25552940368652344
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 1871,
                "auroc": 0.8181298946651582,
                "prevalence": 0.19347941875457764
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            },
            "tier_3": {
              "regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "auroc": 0.6537457648280399,
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "prevalence": 0.20622630417346954
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 13415,
                "auroc": 0.6659178161566514,
                "prevalence": 0.31375324726104736
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 13931,
                "auroc": 0.7065969499348127,
                "prevalence": 0.3116789758205414
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 12399,
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                "prevalence": 0.22050164639949799
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            },
            "tier_4": {
              "regime_transition": {
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "auroc": 0.612907603235057,
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 31825,
                "auroc": 0.6042398194588535,
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 28052,
                "auroc": 0.6104223063478623,
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            }
          },
          "session_direction": {
            "down": {
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 25501,
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "auroc": 0.6733201582447885,
                "prevalence": 0.23017969727516174
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 22873,
                "auroc": 0.6653956769740244,
                "prevalence": 0.20146024227142334
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            },
            "up": {
              "regime_transition": {
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              "volatility_regime_shift": {
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              "volume_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 22323,
                "auroc": 0.6306854943925712,
                "prevalence": 0.33812659978866577
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              "dislocation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 23444,
                "auroc": 0.692994679591389,
                "prevalence": 0.24193823337554932
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              "compound_market_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
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            }
          }
        }
      },
      "gate": {
        "criteria": {
          "real_corpus_required": true,
          "min_targets_significant": 2,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0,
          "max_collapsed_targets": 0,
          "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005,
          "max_ece": 0.1,
          "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02,
          "min_entities": 100,
          "leakage_tests_must_pass": true
        },
        "checks": {
          "real_corpus": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [
            "regime_transition",
            "volatility_regime_shift",
            "volume_regime_shift",
            "dislocation_ahead",
            "compound_market_stress"
          ],
          "enough_significant_targets": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [
            "regime_transition",
            "volatility_regime_shift"
          ],
          "beats_logistic_baseline": true,
          "collapsed_targets": [],
          "no_collapsed_heads": true,
          "calibration_within_bound": false,
          "worst_ece": 0.12414417739337054,
          "abstention_helps": true,
          "enough_entities": true,
          "leakage_tests_passed": true
        },
        "status": "candidate_not_promoted",
        "blocking_reasons": [
          "worst-target ECE 0.124 exceeds bound"
        ],
        "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one."
      }
    },
    "seismic": {
      "domain": {
        "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0",
        "domain_id": "seismic",
        "schema_version": "0.3.0",
        "schema_hash": "2cd75de68c3480f8",
        "entity_kind": "opaque_spatial_cell",
        "categories": [
          "micro_shallow",
          "light_shallow",
          "moderate_shallow",
          "strong_event",
          "intermediate_depth",
          "deep_focus",
          "quarry_blast",
          "other_event",
          "unknown"
        ],
        "channels": [
          "magnitude",
          "depth_km",
          "azimuthal_gap",
          "rms_residual"
        ],
        "context_dims": [
          "network",
          "magnitude_type",
          "depth_class"
        ],
        "targets": [
          {
            "name": "event_regime_transition",
            "kind": "category_transition",
            "horizon": 4
          },
          {
            "name": "cadence_shift",
            "kind": "cadence_shift",
            "horizon": 32,
            "factor": 2.0
          },
          {
            "name": "significant_event_ahead",
            "kind": "threshold_crossing",
            "horizon": 6,
            "channel": "magnitude",
            "level": 4.6,
            "direction": "above",
            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of magnitude"
          },
          {
            "name": "compound_seismic_stress",
            "kind": "compound",
            "horizon": 32,
            "over": [
              "cadence_shift",
              "significant_event_ahead"
            ],
            "k": 2
          }
        ],
        "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0,
        "permitted": [
          "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)",
          "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)",
          "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators",
          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
          "regime indicators derived from past observations only",
          "cold-start state",
          "unavailable-reference mask",
          "censored-horizon indicator"
        ],
        "forbidden": [
          "entity identity as a semantic claim",
          "future events or future aggregates",
          "ownership labels",
          "private partner data",
          "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes"
        ],
        "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature."
      },
      "horizon_selection": {
        "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0",
        "band": [
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        ],
        "min_prevalence": 0.05,
        "level_quantile": 0.9,
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            "selected_horizon": 4,
            "prevalence": 0.07634221762418747,
            "in_band": false,
            "level": null,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
                "prevalence": 0.07634221762418747
              },
              {
                "horizon": 8,
                "prevalence": 0.06724417209625244
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.06361907720565796
              },
              {
                "horizon": 16,
                "prevalence": 0.061134327203035355
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.05923910811543465
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
                "prevalence": 0.061163995414972305
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            ]
          },
          "cadence_shift": {
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            "selected_horizon": 32,
            "prevalence": 0.28494489192962646,
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            "level": null,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
                "prevalence": 0.40345537662506104
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              {
                "horizon": 8,
                "prevalence": 0.3469008207321167
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.31892725825309753
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              {
                "horizon": 16,
                "prevalence": 0.30543282628059387
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.2934751808643341
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
                "prevalence": 0.28494489192962646
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            ]
          },
          "significant_event_ahead": {
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            "selected_horizon": 6,
            "prevalence": 0.3442642390727997,
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            "prevalence_curve": [
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                "prevalence": 0.3442642390727997
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              {
                "horizon": 12,
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                "horizon": 18,
                "prevalence": 0.4442712664604187
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.46078550815582275
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              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.4779368042945862
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.4901275038719177
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            ]
          }
        },
        "excluded": [
          {
            "target": "magnitude_regime_shift",
            "kind": "magnitude_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
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                "horizon": 18,
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                "horizon": 24,
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              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 4.234776133671403e-05
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
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            ]
          }
        ],
        "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance."
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "source": "USGS FDSN event web service (public, credential-free)",
        "quakepulse_earth": {
          "status": "ok",
          "entities": 60,
          "event_days": 19908,
          "blocked_channels": [],
          "since": "2023-07-01"
        },
        "source_url": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query",
        "licence": "USGS public domain; cite USGS Earthquake Hazards Program",
        "windows": [
          [
            "2023-01-01",
            "2023-07-01"
          ],
          [
            "2023-07-01",
            "2024-01-01"
          ],
          [
            "2024-01-01",
            "2024-07-01"
          ],
          [
            "2024-07-01",
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          ],
          [
            "2025-01-01",
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          ],
          [
            "2025-07-01",
            "2026-01-01"
          ],
          [
            "2026-01-01",
            "2026-07-01"
          ]
        ],
        "min_magnitude": 2.0,
        "cell_size_degrees": 2.0,
        "min_events_per_entity": 60,
        "n_entities": 397,
        "n_events": 138186,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:04:26Z",
        "note": "Descriptive public event records only. Spatial cells are opaque grouping keys and are never used as features."
      },
      "split": {
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        "n_val": 18554,
        "n_test": 27638,
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        "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 21418
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      "features": {
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        "degenerate_zeroed": [
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          "depth_km_available",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "censored_horizon"
        ]
      },
      "sequence": {
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        "steps": 12
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
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      "calibration": {
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        "piecewise_targets": [
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      "evaluation": {
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        "domain_id": "seismic",
        "schema_hash": "2cd75de68c3480f8",
        "targets": {
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            "candidate": {
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            "baselines": {
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              "ewma_z": {
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              "logistic": {
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                "auroc": 0.7571609575093896,
                "prevalence": 0.08208955079317093
              },
              "frp_regime_shift": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 0
              },
              "cluster_expansion": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 851,
                "auroc": 0.6024597690594798,
                "prevalence": 0.40305522084236145
              },
              "escalation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 851,
                "auroc": 0.5383244206773619,
                "prevalence": 0.4394829571247101
              },
              "compound_fire_stress": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 0
              }
            },
            "low": {
              "fire_regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 437,
                "auroc": 0.7966409787530477,
                "prevalence": 0.4027459919452667
              },
              "cadence_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 1863,
                "auroc": 0.525896560752987,
                "prevalence": 0.1470746099948883
              },
              "frp_regime_shift": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 0
              },
              "cluster_expansion": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 1682,
                "auroc": 0.7146138951790226,
                "prevalence": 0.13733650743961334
              },
              "escalation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 1682,
                "auroc": 0.6700853248362542,
                "prevalence": 0.5202140212059021
              },
              "compound_fire_stress": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 0
              }
            },
            "medium": {
              "fire_regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 626,
                "auroc": 0.7536472420293419,
                "prevalence": 0.4696485698223114
              },
              "cadence_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 2251,
                "auroc": 0.6161333543505675,
                "prevalence": 0.13282985985279083
              },
              "frp_regime_shift": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 1
              },
              "cluster_expansion": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 2076,
                "auroc": 0.6395466577369563,
                "prevalence": 0.22543352842330933
              },
              "escalation_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
                "n": 2076,
                "auroc": 0.5773751874567631,
                "prevalence": 0.48892101645469666
              },
              "compound_fire_stress": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 1
              }
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "gate": {
        "criteria": {
          "real_corpus_required": true,
          "min_targets_significant": 2,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0,
          "max_collapsed_targets": 0,
          "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005,
          "max_ece": 0.1,
          "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02,
          "min_entities": 100,
          "leakage_tests_must_pass": true
        },
        "checks": {
          "real_corpus": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [
            "fire_regime_transition",
            "cadence_shift",
            "cluster_expansion",
            "escalation_ahead"
          ],
          "enough_significant_targets": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [],
          "beats_logistic_baseline": false,
          "collapsed_targets": [],
          "no_collapsed_heads": true,
          "calibration_within_bound": false,
          "worst_ece": 0.13678368329116114,
          "abstention_helps": false,
          "enough_entities": true,
          "leakage_tests_passed": true
        },
        "status": "candidate_not_promoted",
        "blocking_reasons": [
          "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot",
          "worst-target ECE 0.137 exceeds bound",
          "abstention does not improve selective accuracy enough to be useful"
        ],
        "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one."
      }
    },
    "spaceweather": {
      "domain": {
        "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0",
        "domain_id": "spaceweather",
        "schema_version": "0.5.0",
        "schema_hash": "d06f95410a1ddb08",
        "entity_kind": "opaque_solar_rotation",
        "categories": [
          "quiet",
          "unsettled",
          "active",
          "minor_storm",
          "moderate_storm",
          "strong_storm",
          "severe_storm",
          "unknown"
        ],
        "channels": [
          "kp",
          "ap",
          "ap_rise",
          "f107"
        ],
        "context_dims": [
          "solar_phase",
          "season",
          "activity_band"
        ],
        "targets": [
          {
            "name": "ap_regime_shift",
            "kind": "magnitude_shift",
            "horizon": 48,
            "channel": "ap",
            "shift": 0.8,
            "min_observations": 2
          },
          {
            "name": "storm_onset",
            "kind": "threshold_crossing",
            "horizon": 6,
            "channel": "kp",
            "level": 3.333,
            "direction": "above",
            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of kp"
          },
          {
            "name": "severe_storm_onset",
            "kind": "threshold_crossing",
            "horizon": 8,
            "channel": "kp",
            "level": 3.333,
            "direction": "above",
            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of kp"
          },
          {
            "name": "compound_geomagnetic_stress",
            "kind": "compound",
            "horizon": 48,
            "over": [
              "ap_regime_shift",
              "storm_onset"
            ],
            "k": 2
          }
        ],
        "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0,
        "permitted": [
          "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)",
          "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)",
          "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators",
          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
          "regime indicators derived from past observations only",
          "cold-start state",
          "unavailable-reference mask",
          "censored-horizon indicator"
        ],
        "forbidden": [
          "entity identity as a semantic claim",
          "future events or future aggregates",
          "ownership labels",
          "private partner data",
          "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes"
        ],
        "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature."
      },
      "horizon_selection": {
        "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0",
        "band": [
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          0.25
        ],
        "min_prevalence": 0.05,
        "level_quantile": 0.9,
        "selected": {
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            "declared_horizon": 6,
            "selected_horizon": 48,
            "prevalence": 0.1642405092716217,
            "in_band": true,
            "level": null,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.20475594699382782
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.19053763151168823
              },
              {
                "horizon": 18,
                "prevalence": 0.18375499546527863
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.1881759911775589
              },
              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.17039215564727783
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.1642405092716217
              }
            ]
          },
          "storm_onset": {
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            "selected_horizon": 6,
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            "level": 3.333,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.15736337006092072
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.24223655462265015
              },
              {
                "horizon": 18,
                "prevalence": 0.3136262893676758
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.37855178117752075
              },
              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.48990195989608765
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.577531635761261
              }
            ]
          },
          "severe_storm_onset": {
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            "selected_horizon": 8,
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            "level": 3.333,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 8,
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              },
              {
                "horizon": 16,
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.3787766396999359
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
                "prevalence": 0.4547393023967743
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              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.576602578163147
              },
              {
                "horizon": 64,
                "prevalence": 0.6694047451019287
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            ]
          }
        },
        "excluded": [
          {
            "target": "activity_transition",
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            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
                "prevalence": 0.01815950870513916
              },
              {
                "horizon": 8,
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              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.0051085567101836205
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              {
                "horizon": 16,
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.0028105168603360653
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
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            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "cadence_shift",
            "kind": "cadence_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
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              },
              {
                "horizon": 8,
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              },
              {
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              },
              {
                "horizon": 16,
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
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              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
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            ]
          }
        ],
        "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance."
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "source": "GFZ Potsdam Kp/ap/F10.7 (definitive, CC BY 4.0, credential-free)",
        "source_url": "https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_Ap_SN_F107_since_1932.txt",
        "licence": "GFZ Kp index, CC BY 4.0 \u2014 cite Matzka et al. (2021)",
        "cadence": "3-hourly Kp/ap, daily F10.7 broadcast across the day",
        "since_year": 1932,
        "n_entities": 300,
        "n_events": 64768,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:35:39Z",
        "note": "Externally forced, punctuated activity. Bartels rotation numbers are opaque grouping keys and never enter the feature space."
      },
      "split": {
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        "n_train": 38813,
        "n_val": 12905,
        "n_test": 12954,
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        "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 96
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      "features": {
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        "degenerate_zeroed": [
          "kp_available",
          "ap_available",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "source_count_last",
          "log_confirmations",
          "censored_horizon"
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      },
      "sequence": {
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        "steps": 12
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
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      "calibration": {
        "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half",
        "parameters": [
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            "selected_on": "held-out half of validation",
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            "selected_on": "held-out half of validation",
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        ],
        "piecewise_targets": [
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      "excluded_targets": [],
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        "selective_accuracy": 0.8750968616815188,
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        "schema_hash": "d06f95410a1ddb08",
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            "baselines": {
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              "ewma_z": {
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              "logistic": {
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                "lead_at_far10_hours": 23014.5
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            "auroc_ci95": {
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              "phase0_rules": [
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              "ewma_z": [
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            "paired_auroc_lift": {
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                "significant": true
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                "significant": true
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                "significant": false
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            },
            "bootstrap": {
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              "n_entities": 60,
              "n_replicates": 300,
              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          },
          "storm_onset": {
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              "ece": 0.06325471762836832,
              "lead_at_far10_hours": 22896.0
            },
            "baselines": {
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                "auroc": 0.49785620913706735,
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                "ece": 0.5308981240161494,
                "lead_at_far10_hours": 23022.0
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              "ewma_z": {
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                "ece": 0.18713698283170982,
                "lead_at_far10_hours": 22950.0
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              "logistic": {
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                "auroc": 0.784736371351453,
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            "auroc_ci95": {
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              "ewma_z": [
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            "paired_auroc_lift": {
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                "ci95": [
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                "significant": true
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                "significant": true
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              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          },
          "severe_storm_onset": {
            "status": "ok",
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              "n": 11746,
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            "baselines": {
              "phase0_rules": {
                "n": 11746,
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              "ewma_z": {
                "n": 11746,
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              "logistic": {
                "n": 11746,
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            "auroc_ci95": {
              "candidate": [
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                0.7389046660790738,
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            "paired_auroc_lift": {
              "phase0_rules": {
                "mean": 0.1959352127103046,
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                  0.16226085511865893,
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                "significant": true
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                "significant": true
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              "resampling_unit": "entity",
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              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          },
          "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
            "status": "ok",
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              "n": 9328,
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            "baselines": {
              "phase0_rules": {
                "n": 9328,
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              "ewma_z": {
                "n": 9328,
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                "lead_at_far10_hours": 24210.0
              },
              "logistic": {
                "n": 9328,
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                "auroc": 0.7737650737822476,
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              }
            },
            "auroc_ci95": {
              "candidate": [
                0.5,
                0.5
              ],
              "phase0_rules": [
                0.5013043479053909,
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              ],
              "ewma_z": [
                0.5779600930253628,
                0.6473202633226324
              ],
              "logistic": [
                0.7313304212933378,
                0.8129081322385838
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            },
            "paired_auroc_lift": {
              "phase0_rules": {
                "mean": -0.06361333750784656,
                "ci95": [
                  -0.1235972332018338,
                  -0.0013043479053909265
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                "significant": false
              },
              "ewma_z": {
                "mean": -0.11017035942069858,
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                  -0.14732026332263237,
                  -0.07796009302536283
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                "significant": false
              },
              "logistic": {
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                "ci95": [
                  -0.3129081322385838,
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            },
            "bootstrap": {
              "resampling_unit": "entity",
              "n_entities": 60,
              "n_replicates": 300,
              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          }
        },
        "slices": {
          "solar_phase": {
            "active": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "storm_onset": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "severe_storm_onset": {
                "status": "ok",
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              "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
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            },
            "maximum": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "status": "ok",
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              "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
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            },
            "rising": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "status": "ok",
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                "prevalence": 0.05921052768826485
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            },
            "unknown": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 24
              },
              "storm_onset": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 24
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              "severe_storm_onset": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
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              "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
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            }
          },
          "season": {
            "autumn": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
                "status": "ok",
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                "status": "ok",
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            },
            "spring": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
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            },
            "summer": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
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            },
            "winter": {
              "ap_regime_shift": {
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              "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
                "status": "ok",
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            },
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              "compound_geomagnetic_stress": {
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                "prevalence": 0.12628304958343506
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        }
      },
      "gate": {
        "criteria": {
          "real_corpus_required": true,
          "min_targets_significant": 2,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0,
          "max_collapsed_targets": 0,
          "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005,
          "max_ece": 0.1,
          "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02,
          "min_entities": 100,
          "leakage_tests_must_pass": true
        },
        "checks": {
          "real_corpus": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [
            "ap_regime_shift",
            "storm_onset",
            "severe_storm_onset"
          ],
          "enough_significant_targets": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [],
          "beats_logistic_baseline": false,
          "collapsed_targets": [
            "compound_geomagnetic_stress"
          ],
          "no_collapsed_heads": false,
          "calibration_within_bound": true,
          "worst_ece": 0.08460442632775922,
          "abstention_helps": true,
          "enough_entities": true,
          "leakage_tests_passed": true
        },
        "status": "candidate_not_promoted",
        "blocking_reasons": [
          "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot",
          "1 head(s) sit within 0.005 AUROC of chance (compound_geomagnetic_stress) \u2014 a collapsed head is a defect and blocks promotion"
        ],
        "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one."
      }
    },
    "celo": {
      "domain": {
        "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0",
        "domain_id": "celo",
        "schema_version": "0.5.0",
        "schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c",
        "entity_kind": "opaque_block_range",
        "categories": [
          "idle_block",
          "light_block",
          "normal_block",
          "busy_block",
          "saturated_block",
          "slow_block",
          "burst_block",
          "unknown"
        ],
        "channels": [
          "tx_count",
          "gas_ratio",
          "block_interval_s",
          "base_fee_gwei"
        ],
        "context_dims": [
          "chain",
          "utilisation_band",
          "hour_band"
        ],
        "targets": [
          {
            "name": "block_regime_transition",
            "kind": "category_transition",
            "horizon": 10
          },
          {
            "name": "congestion_ahead",
            "kind": "threshold_crossing",
            "horizon": 8,
            "channel": "gas_ratio",
            "level": 0.17303338666666668,
            "direction": "above",
            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of gas_ratio"
          }
        ],
        "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0,
        "permitted": [
          "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)",
          "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)",
          "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators",
          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
          "regime indicators derived from past observations only",
          "cold-start state",
          "unavailable-reference mask",
          "censored-horizon indicator"
        ],
        "forbidden": [
          "entity identity as a semantic claim",
          "future events or future aggregates",
          "ownership labels",
          "private partner data",
          "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes"
        ],
        "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature."
      },
      "horizon_selection": {
        "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0",
        "band": [
          0.08,
          0.25
        ],
        "min_prevalence": 0.05,
        "level_quantile": 0.9,
        "selected": {
          "block_regime_transition": {
            "declared_horizon": 5,
            "selected_horizon": 10,
            "prevalence": 0.17083333432674408,
            "in_band": true,
            "level": null,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 5,
                "prevalence": 0.20357142388820648
              },
              {
                "horizon": 10,
                "prevalence": 0.17083333432674408
              },
              {
                "horizon": 15,
                "prevalence": 0.19583334028720856
              },
              {
                "horizon": 20,
                "prevalence": 0.17604166269302368
              },
              {
                "horizon": 30,
                "prevalence": 0.20416666567325592
              },
              {
                "horizon": 40,
                "prevalence": NaN
              }
            ]
          },
          "congestion_ahead": {
            "declared_horizon": 8,
            "selected_horizon": 8,
            "prevalence": 0.40486112236976624,
            "in_band": false,
            "level": 0.17303338666666668,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 8,
                "prevalence": 0.40486112236976624
              },
              {
                "horizon": 16,
                "prevalence": 0.5445075631141663
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.5922619104385376
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
                "prevalence": 0.6354166865348816
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": NaN
              },
              {
                "horizon": 64,
                "prevalence": NaN
              }
            ]
          }
        },
        "excluded": [
          {
            "target": "cadence_shift",
            "kind": "cadence_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 5,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 10,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 15,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 20,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 30,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 40,
                "prevalence": NaN
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "demand_regime_shift",
            "kind": "magnitude_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.0234375
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.013621794991195202
              },
              {
                "horizon": 18,
                "prevalence": 0.008333333767950535
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.0059523810632526875
              },
              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": NaN
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "fee_regime_shift",
            "kind": "magnitude_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 18,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": NaN
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "compound_chain_stress",
            "kind": "compound",
            "reason": "only 1 of its 2 required component targets survived selection",
            "prevalence_curve": []
          }
        ],
        "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance."
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "source": "Celo public JSON-RPC block sampling (credential-free)",
        "source_url": "https://forno.celo.org",
        "licence": "public chain state; no third-party terms",
        "sampling": "30000 blocks at stride 120 back from head",
        "median_seconds_per_block": 1.0,
        "n_entities": 240,
        "n_events": 12000,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T06:49:29Z",
        "note": "Chain-level operational behaviour only. No price target, no address identity: block ranges are opaque grouping keys. Protocol-level state is a follow-up on the general onchain pack."
      },
      "split": {
        "version": "surprise-splits/0.3.0",
        "n_train": 7200,
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        "dropped_for_horizon_quarantine": 0
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      "features": {
        "n": 135,
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        "degenerate_zeroed": [
          "tx_count_available",
          "gas_ratio_available",
          "base_fee_gwei_available",
          "reference_missing_rate",
          "cat_last__idle_block",
          "cat_last__saturated_block",
          "cat_last__slow_block",
          "cat_last__burst_block",
          "cat_last__unknown",
          "source_count_last",
          "log_confirmations",
          "censored_horizon",
          "resid_seasonal_naive"
        ]
      },
      "sequence": {
        "version": "surprise-sequence/0.4.0",
        "steps": 12
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      "targets": {
        "prevalence": {
          "block_regime_transition": 0.20319443941116333,
          "congestion_ahead": 0.44013887643814087
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
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      "calibration": {
        "method": "per-target calibration fitted on validation: affine Platt, or a monotone piecewise-linear map when it wins on a held-out half",
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          [
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        "per_target": [
          {
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            "kind": "piecewise",
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              -6.641004,
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            "selected_on": "held-out half of validation",
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            "affine_held_out_ece": 0.5999999999999066
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        ],
        "piecewise_targets": [
          "block_regime_transition",
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      "excluded_targets": [],
      "abstention": {
        "threshold": 0.9149428226570102,
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        "selective_accuracy": 0.6026041666666667,
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        "curve": [
          {
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        "fit_split": "validation",
        "evaluation_split": "test",
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        "test_base_accuracy": 0.48541666666666666,
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      "evaluation": {
        "version": "surprise-eval/0.3.0",
        "domain_id": "celo",
        "schema_hash": "2eae33f0adc6fc7c",
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                "n": 1440,
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                "n": 1440,
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              "candidate": [
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                0.7281527598913989,
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            "paired_auroc_lift": {
              "phase0_rules": {
                "mean": 0.07665228882212914,
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                  0.010642411099388155,
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                "significant": true
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              "ewma_z": {
                "mean": 0.08203585414830397,
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                "significant": true
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              "resampling_unit": "entity",
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              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          },
          "congestion_ahead": {
            "status": "ok",
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                "n": 1440,
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                "lead_at_far10_hours": 31.733333333333334
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            },
            "auroc_ci95": {
              "candidate": [
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            "paired_auroc_lift": {
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                "mean": 0.0998746356765293,
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                "significant": true
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              "ewma_z": {
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                "significant": true
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              "logistic": {
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            },
            "bootstrap": {
              "resampling_unit": "entity",
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              "note": "Intervals resample entities with replacement. They describe sampling variability on this corpus only and are not evidence of transfer to another corpus."
            }
          }
        },
        "slices": {
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              "congestion_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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            }
          },
          "utilisation_band": {
            "high": {
              "block_regime_transition": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
                "n": 12
              },
              "congestion_ahead": {
                "status": "insufficient_rows",
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            },
            "low": {
              "block_regime_transition": {
                "status": "ok",
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              },
              "congestion_ahead": {
                "status": "ok",
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            },
            "medium": {
              "block_regime_transition": {
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                "auroc": 0.6874952795750359,
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              "congestion_ahead": {
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          },
          "hour_band": {
            "utc_afternoon": {
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            },
            "utc_evening": {
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                "status": "ok",
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                "auroc": NaN,
                "prevalence": 0.0
              },
              "congestion_ahead": {
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            },
            "utc_morning": {
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              "congestion_ahead": {
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            },
            "utc_night": {
              "block_regime_transition": {
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              "congestion_ahead": {
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      },
      "gate": {
        "criteria": {
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          "min_targets_significant": 2,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_phase0": 0.03,
          "min_paired_lift_vs_logistic": 0.0,
          "max_collapsed_targets": 0,
          "collapse_auroc_band": 0.005,
          "max_ece": 0.1,
          "min_selective_accuracy_gain": 0.02,
          "min_entities": 100,
          "leakage_tests_must_pass": true
        },
        "checks": {
          "real_corpus": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_phase0": [
            "block_regime_transition",
            "congestion_ahead"
          ],
          "enough_significant_targets": true,
          "targets_significant_vs_logistic": [],
          "beats_logistic_baseline": false,
          "collapsed_targets": [],
          "no_collapsed_heads": true,
          "calibration_within_bound": true,
          "worst_ece": 0.06456675400619105,
          "abstention_helps": true,
          "enough_entities": true,
          "leakage_tests_passed": true
        },
        "status": "candidate_not_promoted",
        "blocking_reasons": [
          "only 0 target(s) beat a plain logistic regression on the same features with a CI excluding zero \u2014 the learned representation is not yet doing work the baseline cannot"
        ],
        "statement": "Not promoted. Published as a candidate with its blocking reasons attached; the frozen released checkpoint remains the recommended one."
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "domain": {
        "contract_version": "surprise-contract/0.3.0",
        "domain_id": "macro",
        "schema_version": "0.5.0",
        "schema_hash": "a483c38e354bd308",
        "entity_kind": "opaque_series",
        "categories": [
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          "mild_move",
          "notable_move",
          "large_move",
          "shock_print",
          "revision",
          "stale_print",
          "unknown"
        ],
        "channels": [
          "level",
          "abs_change",
          "z_change",
          "days_since_prev"
        ],
        "context_dims": [
          "family",
          "cadence",
          "move_band"
        ],
        "targets": [
          {
            "name": "print_regime_transition",
            "kind": "category_transition",
            "horizon": 4
          },
          {
            "name": "shock_ahead",
            "kind": "threshold_crossing",
            "horizon": 6,
            "channel": "z_change",
            "level": 1.4704358187934363,
            "direction": "above",
            "level_source": "train-split q0.9 of z_change"
          }
        ],
        "unavailable_sentinel": -9.0,
        "permitted": [
          "declared event category (incl. the unknown slot)",
          "time gaps and cadence statistics (past-only)",
          "declared magnitude channels and their explicit missingness indicators",
          "event and source evidence-quality indicators",
          "reference predictions, residuals and disagreement (as-of t)",
          "regime indicators derived from past observations only",
          "cold-start state",
          "unavailable-reference mask",
          "censored-horizon indicator"
        ],
        "forbidden": [
          "entity identity as a semantic claim",
          "future events or future aggregates",
          "ownership labels",
          "private partner data",
          "repayment, credit, default or causal outcomes"
        ],
        "notes": "entity_key and the declared context dimensions are used only for grouping, splitting and slice reporting. Neither is ever encoded as a feature."
      },
      "horizon_selection": {
        "version": "surprise-horizons/0.1.0",
        "band": [
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        ],
        "min_prevalence": 0.05,
        "level_quantile": 0.9,
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            "selected_horizon": 4,
            "prevalence": 0.12220495939254761,
            "in_band": true,
            "level": null,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
                "prevalence": 0.12220495939254761
              },
              {
                "horizon": 8,
                "prevalence": 0.09200801700353622
              },
              {
                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.07721874862909317
              },
              {
                "horizon": 16,
                "prevalence": 0.06795667111873627
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.058708369731903076
              },
              {
                "horizon": 32,
                "prevalence": 0.053314823657274246
              }
            ]
          },
          "shock_ahead": {
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            "selected_horizon": 6,
            "prevalence": 0.4313455820083618,
            "in_band": false,
            "level": 1.4704358187934363,
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.4313455820083618
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                "horizon": 12,
                "prevalence": 0.5995871424674988
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              {
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                "prevalence": 0.6955165266990662
              },
              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.758023738861084
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              {
                "horizon": 36,
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              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.877090334892273
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            ]
          }
        },
        "excluded": [
          {
            "target": "cadence_shift",
            "kind": "cadence_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (4, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 4,
                "prevalence": 0.0024317624047398567
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                "prevalence": 0.0001898591435747221
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            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "volatility_regime_shift",
            "kind": "magnitude_shift",
            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
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                "prevalence": 0.027699023485183716
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            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "level_regime_shift",
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            "reason": "prevalence stays below 5% at every admissible horizon (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48)",
            "prevalence_curve": [
              {
                "horizon": 6,
                "prevalence": 0.017022740095853806
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              {
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                "prevalence": 0.019052591174840927
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              {
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              {
                "horizon": 24,
                "prevalence": 0.024952244013547897
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              {
                "horizon": 36,
                "prevalence": 0.02974996715784073
              },
              {
                "horizon": 48,
                "prevalence": 0.03552227094769478
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            ]
          },
          {
            "target": "compound_macro_stress",
            "kind": "compound",
            "reason": "only 1 of its 2 required component targets survived selection",
            "prevalence_curve": []
          }
        ],
        "note": "Horizons are selected on the calibration split only and recorded here. A target that cannot reach the minimum prevalence at any admissible horizon is excluded with its prevalence curve, never shipped at chance."
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "source": "FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) observations API",
        "source_url": "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations",
        "licence": "FRED terms of use; series carry their originating agency's terms",
        "series": [
          "DGS10",
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          "DGS3MO",
          "T10Y2Y",
          "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
          "BAMLC0A0CM",
          "ICSA",
          "CCSA",
          "UNRATE",
          "PAYEMS",
          "CPIAUCSL",
          "PCEPI",
          "FEDFUNDS",
          "SOFR",
          "M2SL",
          "INDPRO",
          "HOUST",
          "UMCSENT",
          "VIXCLS",
          "DTWEXBGS",
          "DCOILWTICO",
          "TEDRATE",
          "NFCI",
          "STLFSI4",
          "DGS1",
          "DGS5",
          "DGS30",
          "DGS1MO",
          "DGS20",
          "DFII10",
          "T10YIE",
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        "cluster_expansion": 0.776759225110014,
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        "storm_onset": 0.7520402402899485,
        "severe_storm_onset": 0.7371317013747916,
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        "storm_onset": 0.7319841101261414,
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        "congestion_ahead": 0.814706039991345
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      "joint_auroc": {
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      "gate": "candidate_not_promoted",
      "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted"
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        "shock_ahead": 0.7269032590397267
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      "joint_auroc": {
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      "protocol": "trunk + z^S trained on the other domains only, then frozen; only the held-out adapter and heads were fitted"
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  "external_transfer": {
    "gifteval": {
      "status": "ok",
      "external": true,
      "gates_release": false,
      "entities": 240,
      "rows": 338832,
      "auroc": {
        "regime_transition": 0.8485763586187108,
        "value_regime_shift": 0.8379383660942458,
        "volatility_regime_shift": 0.8780953327258311,
        "compound_regime_break": 0.8625072356274331
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      "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted",
      "targets": {
        "prevalence": {
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          "value_regime_shift": 0.19231393933296204,
          "volatility_regime_shift": 0.16776002943515778,
          "compound_regime_break": 0.08943432569503784
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "external": true,
        "pretraining_only": true,
        "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain",
        "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain",
        "subsets_used": [
          "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN",
          "LOS_LOOP",
          "PEMS07",
          "alibaba_cluster_trace_2018",
          "cdc_fluview_who_nrevss",
          "cmip6_1885"
        ],
        "subsets_failed": {},
        "n_entities": 240,
        "n_events": 338832,
        "max_len": 1500,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T09:14:22Z",
        "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating."
      },
      "missing_trunk_keys": 10,
      "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release."
    },
    "lotsa": {
      "status": "ok",
      "external": true,
      "gates_release": false,
      "entities": 240,
      "rows": 337140,
      "auroc": {
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        "volatility_regime_shift": 0.8427907661146429,
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
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      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "external": true,
        "pretraining_only": true,
        "source": "Hugging Face dataset Salesforce/lotsa_data",
        "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/lotsa_data",
        "subsets_used": [
          "BEIJING_SUBWAY_30MIN",
          "LOOP_SEATTLE",
          "PEMS04",
          "SHMETRO",
          "cdc_fluview_ilinet",
          "cmip6_1890"
        ],
        "subsets_failed": {},
        "n_entities": 240,
        "n_events": 337140,
        "max_len": 1500,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T09:51:09Z",
        "note": "External pre-training corpus. No anomaly ground truth exists in this collection, so only the observable proxy targets are declared. Excluded from promotion gating."
      },
      "missing_trunk_keys": 10,
      "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release."
    },
    "airquality": {
      "status": "skipped",
      "reason": "corpus has only 38 usable rows"
    },
    "agriculture": {
      "status": "ok",
      "external": true,
      "gates_release": false,
      "entities": 31,
      "rows": 3618,
      "auroc": {
        "crop_regime_transition": null,
        "stress_ahead": 0.6375289031868905
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      "gate_status": "candidate_not_promoted",
      "targets": {
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          "crop_regime_transition": NaN,
          "stress_ahead": 0.2257072627544403
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        "version": "surprise-targets/0.4.0"
      },
      "corpus": {
        "real_corpus": true,
        "source": "QuakePulse corpus API \u2014 agriculture domain (publication-time availability)",
        "source_url": "https://quakepulse.live/corpus/v1/agriculture",
        "licences": [
          "CC-BY-4.0",
          "Copernicus-Data-Space-Legal-Notice",
          "QuakePulse derived output",
          "QuakePulse model output"
        ],
        "blocked_channels": [],
        "since": "2026-05-01",
        "resampled_daily": false,
        "n_entities": 31,
        "n_events": 3618,
        "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T10:47:09Z",
        "note": "Rows are publication-time available; model.* channels are carried as reference predictions, never as observations. Hourly sources are daily-resampled with the hourly count in source_count.",
        "dropped_model_only_rows": 0
      },
      "missing_trunk_keys": 10,
      "protocol": "trunk + z^S frozen at their jointly-trained weights; only the external adapter and heads were fitted. Reported as generalisation evidence \u2014 external corpora never gate a release."
    },
    "marine": {
      "status": "skipped",
      "reason": "corpus has only 942 usable rows"
    },
    "urban": {
      "status": "skipped",
      "reason": "corpus has only 57 usable rows"
    }
  },
  "gate_summary": {
    "promoted_domains": [
      "climate",
      "seismic"
    ],
    "lodo_transfer_promoted": [
      "seismic"
    ],
    "external_transfer_domains": [
      "agriculture",
      "airquality",
      "gifteval",
      "lotsa",
      "marine",
      "urban"
    ],
    "status": "promoted",
    "rule": "v0.9.0 ships only if at least two real-corpus domains clear the gate; leave-one-domain-out and external-corpus transfer results are reported, never required \u2014 an external corpus cannot qualify a release"
  }
}