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100 | 101 | 19811117_513_3 | VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. | "And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery." | The reaction to that would be very perverse in the bond market. I'm convinced of it. And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery. | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "To me it's really important that we not repeat what we did last year. That's the one time I dissented and I'd have to dissent again, I think, if the fed funds floor were put so as to permit such a sharp drop in the funds rate over a short period of time. "}, {'speaker': '... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Do you mean 7 percent for October to December?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'November to December.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "He means September to December, doesn't he?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Septem... | yes | yes | null | ambiguous | null |
101 | 102 | 19901113_269_18 | MR. BOYKIN. | "We had a joint meeting last week of all four of our boards of directors and the comments made at that meeting certainly confirmed what our statistics are saying." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "But I just can't come to a different conclusion because regardless of what we do in policy--and we're constrained with the dollar on one side of the prospective policy--it would take an awful big move to divert some of the enormous increase in conservatism and risk premiums by many l... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "It feels somewhat silly raising this, but I think what is becoming more and more an issue nationwide, and it is for real, is that we need to take some steps to reconcile our objectives in macro policy with what we're doing in the supervisory area.I must say I hate to raise that becau... | no | null | null | null | null |
102 | 103 | 19990630_78_2 | MR. STERN. | "That's fine." | No, I understand that. That's fine. | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "Well, the model that is embedded in these two charts was put together by the International Finance Division two years ago. And it came to somewhat less fearsome conclusions because the dollar is two years' worth of appreciation lower now and we have not had two years of full-blown ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': "If I understood Peter's litany of things that might come back to haunt us--having to do especially with the euro and the yen--they seem to imply that the euro and the yen might both depreciate relative to the dollar once market perceptions change.That is, the attitude right now may b... | yes | no | null | null | null |
103 | 104 | 19830209_596_3 | MR. AXILROD. | "We didn't think that there was room for any more private credit within the monetary targets and given the government's [needs]." | Mr. Chairman, we don't feel extremely confident about all of these numbers--and Mr. Prell may be able to make some comments on how he got to here a little more elaborately--but if we attempted to have a lot more private credit, we believe that interest rates would be a lot higher in that process and we wouldn't get the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'And I divided that by the GNP and got 7-1/2 percent. I looked at my own tables here, which I happen to have with me, to compare that 7-1/2 percent. And when I went back, I thought: Well, in 1975 we had 6.9 percent. And then I went all the way back and had to go back to 1961 to find... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "You certainly don't want it to be 16 or 17 percent."}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': "No. I wouldn't suggest anything of the kind."}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Lyle, may I ask what you did?Did you take the $413.3 billion in the middle column in the third set of numb... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
104 | 105 | 19960521_201_7 | MR. KELLEY. | "One of the pleasures of my job is that I get to discuss goals with all 12 Reserve Banks." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I agree with Governor Lindsey. I think this is a discussion that we definitely need to have to clarify what we mean by price stability and what strategy we have in mind to get there. I am also concerned, especially given my interest in an opportunistic strategy, that it would be awf... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I am proud of being an opportunist, but the thing I don\'t know is when the opportunity is going to present itself.We are not going to induce a recession, but we know the business cycle is going to produce one.When it does, then inflation will come down.I don\'t know if that will o... | no | null | null | null | null |
105 | 106 | 19840717_134_1 | MR. WALLICH. | "My numbers are on the high side of the forecasts, but not extraordinarily so." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': "If the drop-off does materialize, that will likely bring inflation pressures back on the domestic side. Given capacity utilization and the other things that we normally look at, it just seems to me that pressures are going to start building as we get into 1985. Therefore, I'm not as... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': "In terms of real growth, we're about where the Board staff is; we have a little higher nominal GNP and are higher on the deflator.When we are as uncertain as we are, maybe we can learn something from history just from the standpoint of where we are in the cycle.We are going into the... | no | null | null | null | null |
106 | 107 | 19891219_199_1 | MR. ANGELL. | "Well, take table 1 of Mike's December 14th" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "I don't think there's an easy answer to your question, Governor Angell. Ultimately, you would have to crank the whole thing through a big model of interest rates and money demand and all that sort of thing. The P* model tends to cut through it a bit. I do think that some attention to ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "The P* model was an attempt to cut through all that and to say: Suppose velocity grows at its long-run trend and output grows at its long-run trend, then how does money in a statistical sense feed through to prices?And where we are right now is that P* is below P.We've got a sense of ... | no | null | null | null | null |
107 | 108 | 20040128_90_7 | MR. GRAMLICH. | "So I would be for gradual evolution." | I began the exercise thinking that we could come up with a formulaic statement that would work most of the time. In working through it--I was also part of the working group--I now think we can't. I'm pretty much in sympathy with the Chairman in believing that we will face situations where we may think the differences a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': "Others may disagree, I realize, but that's where I came out. However, I would have no trouble--as you know, Roger--going with gradual evolution. Indeed, if you look at the criteria on page 5 in Vincent's memo, I think that approach may well do a better job on items 2, 3, and 4. So I ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'But I think I understand where you are.The next one on my list is President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'I was part of the working group, but I certainly agree that none of the alternatives is perfect.Confining myself to the risk assessment, if I were going to sele... | yes | no | null | null | null |
108 | 109 | 20001219_95_8 | MR. POOLE. | "Back in May when we raised it to 6-1/2 percent, some rates were above and some rates were below." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'But in the process of trying to land that plane in the simulator of the aircraft carrier, I ended up producing what the instructor called "pilot-induced oscillation." [Laughter] That means finding oneself wobbling first one way and then the other way. And I think we have some of the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I see these reflected in areas like durable goods orders and much wider credit spreads that are reducing credit availability to more marginal borrowers.In my view we are observing a fairly standard set of cyclical processes.But they need not, of course, end up creating recession if w... | no | null | null | null | null |
109 | 110 | 20080805_185_4 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "[Laughter] I listened very carefully to what has been said." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'I don\'t think that the "severe financial stress" scenario is out of the question right now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support alternative B for the reasons th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': "We won't have boards of directors that will be good.We won't have all of the benefits that we think we have from the current system.The other alternative is that we then have presidents who are actually appointed by the President and then confirmed by the Senate.I think, again, tha... | no | null | null | null | null |
110 | 111 | 19861105_58_1 | MR. PARRY. | "Are there any indicators that support the slowing in state and local spending to that extent?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "It didn't last quarter, I don't think. Government spending last quarter actually declined very substantially. The rate of growth in the fourth quarter was up, so maybe it just got swamped. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "Defense spending in the third quarter was flat and we ha... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "It's the change in weights and then the change in prices."}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'One question about the near term: I noticed that you have a fair runoff in farm inventories and also an increase in government.Is that an offset?Is there a CCC thing going on there?'}, {'... | no | null | null | null | null |
111 | 112 | 19960326_54_9 | MR. MCTEER. | "Retail sales along the border area have improved a little lately." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Prices of raw materials are showing some increases. On the national front, I think that the fundamentals remain strong, and we expect, as the Greenbook does, growth at about the potential rate of 2 percent. With the capacity in the economy being used at its current level, the rise i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': "The region's energy industry remains lackluster despite some higher oil and natural gas prices in recent months.Another weak area is agriculture, where a continued slump in cattle prices and continued dry weather are hurting the income prospects for many in that sector.However, thos... | no | null | null | null | null |
112 | 113 | 19840327_933_1 | MR. BOYKIN. | "That was the question I wanted to ask: If we take "B" as specified and say 7 to 11 percent, have we done anything?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': "This is going to come back to haunt us if we don't decide to act. And we can't act by just confirming what happened in the market in the past couple of weeks. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Do you interpret alternative B as just validating that? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRA... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Based upon all the experience, I don't interpret it as a barrier anyway.But it is a mechanical point that means we have a consultation.So, where do you want the consultation?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'At 11 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'At 11 pe... | no | null | null | null | null |
113 | 114 | 20061212_151_2 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "President Pianalto." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I was asking myself about "and spending had been slightly weaker"--that raises the question "than what?" In truth, it is slightly weaker than anticipated, but the Committee doesn\'t have a record showing exactly what we\'re anticipating. It is slightly weaker, if you think about the i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'We do need to indicate to the markets and to the public that we are aware that some data have been just a touch--or, as Governor Mishkin said, a smidgen--weaker than we anticipated.I like the new version because it does home in on production and spending.By implication, the labor mark... | no | null | null | null | null |
114 | 115 | 19860212_389_7 | MR. MARTIN. | "We will release the record of policy actions for December in a couple of days, so we are going to release some interesting numbers one day and some interesting history the next day." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "We have some complications on the international side, but I think we ought to heed the adage that you quoted and keep running in place--maintain the status quo or an even keel or whatever it is. My tendency would be a little different from Tom Melzer's in that the inflation pictu... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Would you technically interpret that as "B" or what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "I come out pretty much the same place, Mr. Chairman.I think you analyzed the s... | no | null | null | null | null |
115 | 116 | 20010515_140_1 | MR. FERGUSON. | "Thank you, Mr. Chairman." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'I can support your recommendation for a 50 basis point easing today and a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness. On the other hand, I could also have joined Presidents Minehan and Broaddus in supporting a case for slowing the pace of easing today and mov... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "Second, if this release will have an asymmetric tilt--as I think it should because it's the only honest thing that we can say now--then that coupled with too strong a statement about ending this process could send the market a very confusing message and have a counterproductive impa... | no | null | null | null | null |
116 | 117 | 19850326_230_2 | MR. STERNLIGHT. | "We have been making an allowance in this current reserve period; even though $600 million is in there for excess reserves, we've been thinking of it as somewhat higher and not rushing in to take out what has looked over the last couple of days, for example, like more than enough reserves for the path." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "If you had $500 million of borrowing and the same free reserves, it may be a little higher--perhaps an eighth of a point, I would guess--but it isn't very far off. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'At some point, though, do we at this Committee meeting have to take into accoun... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "So, to a great extent we're at the mercy of the market in that distribution.And I would think that the funds rate recently probably has been a bit higher than either Peter or I would have expected early in the period."}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "It's higher than I thought... | no | null | null | null | null |
117 | 118 | 19901002_412_3 | MR. HOSKINS. | "I don't see that yet, and that's why I'm having a little trouble right now." | Well, I would agree if I could see a little more clearly that that was happening. If, as I think Don suggested, we begin to see some real weakness in M2, then we would recognize this as a severe credit related problem. I don't see that yet, and that's why I'm having a little trouble right now. | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': "So, I do think that the explanation that you give--and I would prefer to link this motion if it carries to the economy and M2--needs to be done carefully. Again, I didn't want to tie it continuously to the credit crunch because then we're locking ourselves in. As the banking system... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': "But with respect to policy moves, I'm very concerned about the reaction in the marketplace--that they might see us as tossing in the towel on inflation.So, I do think that the explanation that you give--and I would prefer to link this motion if it carries to the economy and M2--nee... | yes | yes | utterance | null | null |
118 | 119 | 19850710_856_4 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "We could if you wanted to." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I just changed something. Instead of just putting that number in parallel [with the others], I said "with a substantial slowing of M1 to a rate of 5 to 6 percent." And then the rest of it would be "might" and "would." There\'s nothing else there that needs to be changed ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 at annual rates of"--what is that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': '7-1/2 percent and 7-1/4 percent, I think.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Yes, but we don't want 7-1/4 percent in there."}, {... | no | null | null | null | null |
119 | 120 | 19890516_451_4 | MR. BOYKIN. | "But it seems to me that more or less what I'm hearing is the commitment for a conference call before the next meeting, which gives the opportunity to make any slight adjustment if that's wrong." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'In fact, if we are, we probably won\'t have to tighten policy down the road. So, my view would be to accept "B." I don\'t feel strongly about the language because I don\'t think the market will misinterpret it. The Humphrey-Hawkins report will be in front of them when that language... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'The reason I gave Mike Prell\'s staff credit for putting the notion that we might have a recession into the Greenbook is that if we don\'t walk up and take a look at one we\'ll end up always having higher rates of inflation than we anticipated and, therefore, less output and employ... | no | null | null | null | null |
120 | 121 | 20070321_172_15 | MR. WARSH. | "The most important thing that we're accomplishing in alternative B is suggesting that we aren't going to come to the rescue of market tumult, that market discipline is working, that we don't want complacency in the markets, and that our job is not to make sure that people make money in those markets." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also generally share the views of alternative B and favor maintaining the federal funds rate today. I thought what I'd do is just highlight a couple of things. First, I think the statement needs to be reflective of the real economy rather than financial markets, as we discussed yesterday. So ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "I also agree with President Plosser. I'll just register agreement with his concern about the capacity utilization language. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Governor Warsh. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "These concerns have given me the jitters as well both because I would prefer stronger growth to less and because at times in the past such concerns have deterred needed action on inflation.So to repeat, I'm okay leaving the fed funds rate unchanged.As I said, I do believe we will ne... | yes | yes | null | contradiction | utterance |
121 | 122 | 19990630_256_4 | MR. BERNARD. | "Yes Governor Gramlich" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "As I read the Committee, we're strongly in support of a 25 basis point increase and modestly in support of symmetry. So I would suggest that we read the directive in that context and then proceed to vote. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'This time we\'re on page 22 o... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "There will be more uncertainty about how we're using this language.Frankly, without an asymmetric tilt, I think we're likely to see the market get ahead of itself--experience a somewhat euphoric increase, thinking that we are not engaged in the kind of tightening that I believe mos... | no | null | null | null | null |
122 | 123 | 19910703_136_4 | MR. PARRY. | "However, I should point out that total District employment still remains 0.4 of a percent above the May 1990 level, with California the only District state to lose employment over the year." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "So, what we've done is to assume that M2 will come in slightly above the midpoint of its current range this year and that the FOMC will lower the range for 1992 to 2 to 6 percent and will hold the actual growth of money within that range.This assumption of a lower target range for 19... | no | null | null | null | null |
123 | 124 | 19770719_282_1 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "Any other questions or comment." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The government stockpile program will add $3 billion to oil imports currently estimated for 1978. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'So you are saying that the entire swing in net exports is an oil-related phenomenon. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Yes, most of it. M... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Well, basically, as is often the case in the international area, that is an oil-related phenomenon.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'That is what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "An oil-related phenomenon.You had a big buildup in oil imports in the first quarter.A c... | no | null | null | null | null |
124 | 125 | 19771220_294_1 | MR. PARTEE. | "But the exchange rate is taken in for financial assets, and therefore they will have appreciation." | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And of course, for many U.S. companies [with] operations abroad, it has a direct impact on their profits. And it makes an already not-very-robust profit picture look worse in terms of reported profits-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Particularly FASB 8 [Stateme... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And partly psychologically as well as through its direct effects in terms of the trade balance, I think this has certainly reached a point where the concern in some of the other major economies, specifically Japan and Germany, may affect their investment activity and econ... | no | null | null | null | null |
125 | 126 | 20081216_51_2 | MR. LACKER. | "It guarantees the commercial paper rate." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': "There's one little detail that is causing another piece of friction in the market, and that is that, if the servicer doesn't perform on the loan, then the Department of Education has the right to not make good on the guarantee. But other than that, it's about 97 percent guaranteed. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': "So I think it's a slightly different thing."}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "Well, wouldn't investors want to discount or take into account the fact that the trust, which is their only source of payment, is earning about 300 basis points less than the coupon?Wouldn't that show... | no | null | null | null | null |
126 | 127 | 19861216_613_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Presumably, the directive will get interpreted in that light anyway, which [unintelligible] arguments." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me write it down here. It took me some time to figure out how to spell it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "We've had less-- "}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "It seems like we can kill two birds with one stone with that. I don't think the implications are gre... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It may not offset other things if it [unintelligible] but that's my own view on it."}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'But would you be easing policy through the Desk or would you be considering a discount rate decrease under those circumstances?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN V... | no | null | null | null | null |
127 | 128 | 20051101_12_2 | MR. REINHART. | "[Laughter]" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'What we do is take the energy futures curve, take the weight in the CPI-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but I never saw the result. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Actually, Governor Ferguson saw something very similar just this week. '}, {'speaker... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'Then again, maybe the reaction will come with a lag that is longer than usual.Mr. Chairman, there were no foreign operations in this period.I will need a vote to approve domestic operations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Thank you.I notice that we still don't endeavor ... | no | null | null | null | null |
128 | 129 | 19790918_13_5 | MR. PARDEE. | "It's just that we are caught in this box." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, I don't know what credence we ought to put in the rumors, and maybe we shouldn't even bring them to this table. One of my directors called up very excited yesterday about a rumor that the dollar was going to be ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': "Won't that still be their primary concern in terms of the market?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': "Well, the market is concerned about inflation however it is induced.There are some monetarists in the market who do follow closely the aggregates, but they are just one segment.The... | no | null | null | null | null |
129 | 130 | 19830209_1050_2 | MR. BOEHNE. | "I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut." | The last time it was done, it was done before the funds rate was dropped. I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut. | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': "I agree with Lyle that 50 basis points isn't going to make a lot of difference except for the psychological impact that that 50 basis points may have in the market. And we need it now, not at the end of March. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'It could have the same psychologi... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could just leave it there or add something after that, such as "in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates, or further evidence of low velocity, or further evidence of unusual demands for liquidity, or evidence of unexpected weakness in the economy."W... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | sentence |
130 | 131 | 19770517_244_1 | MR. MORRIS. | "Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating. I think the economy is quite strong. I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think wil... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "But at the same time, as Governor Partee has pointed out, we ought to be careful to note that, historically, the second quarter in the last couple of years has been rather strong, and the third quarter has been somewhat weak.And I think we ought to take that into consideration in rea... | no | null | null | null | null |
131 | 132 | 19861216_430_4 | MR. KICHLINE. | "It's a shade weaker than we had built into the forecast, but not much." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'On the price side, we believe there is somewhat greater risk. But in general I would be quite satisfied if we achieved the 2.7 percent growth that the Board staff is looking for next year. As Mrs. Horn was saying, that sort of growth rate tends to facilitate the kind of adjustment t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "There continues to be anxiety about the Christmas selling season; there is evidence of a lot of promotional activity in the newspapers and some talk of price cutting, but that still remains to be seen.I would say that in general the anxieties remain what we have heard about before--... | no | null | null | null | null |
132 | 133 | 19990203_250_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit." | We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit. | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "That's a good point. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The more I think about it, the more it strikes me as being subtly obvious. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes, I agree. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We may actually be better off with th... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Why don't we leave it there, then?"}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'May I raise a technical point as a word of caution?If we start to indicate what we would like future Humphrey-Hawkins reports to include, in terms of what we would want specified in the law, we will no... | no | null | null | null | null |
133 | 134 | 19770816_320_1 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1." | May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1. The reason for lowering the lower limit [on money] is not to tap lower interest rates very quickly. But if you permit the lower limit [of the federal funds rate] to go down to 5-1/2, you may be fo... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "I'm talking about publications. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': "Well, that's what I wanted to clarify. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'On the federal funds rate, I am disturbed about this concentration and limitation on the range. And I would hope if we are g... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'I had suggested in my jotted notes here that we might go down to a 1 to 6 frame [for M1][and] in the 3-1/2 to 8-1/2 range [for M2], but I would be willing to go to zero on the M1.I would not want to see a negative figure.As far as the funds--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'tex... | yes | yes | sentence | neutral | null |
134 | 135 | 19820701_587_8 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Then we'd come to our federal funds limitation, anyway, at some point." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "I don't either. That's hard to do, of course, because it depends on what happens to the aggregates. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "It's hard to do unless we specify a range, which captures that element. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEEK.', 'text': "Let me just say that I think the ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'And if we get too much downward movement in short rates in July, they may not believe it is sustainable and we will not get as healthy an effect as we could get in the bond market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Or even in the short-term market.It is not jus... | no | null | null | null | null |
135 | 136 | 19850710_105_13 | MR. STERN. | "You hear about layoffs in high-tech companies or one or two of the computer firms and you get the impression that employment is dropping, net; and yet you look at the data and [don't see it]." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you pessimistic on prices? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Well, I think the exchange rate situation is likely to turn around a little; it seems to me that there are some underlying pressures there that will add to prices. And, frankly, it does seem to me that w... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'We are doing this against the background of a highly stimulative fiscal policy and a monetary policy that I think is at least accommodative and, as a consequence, at this point the risk of a recession or any significant downside run from the forecast is somewhat unlikely.Therefore, I... | no | null | null | null | null |
136 | 137 | 19831115_700_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Put 5 to 6 percent?" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think we can either put in 5 to 6 percent percent or 7 percent or less. Or we can change it to October through December and leave it at 7 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "I think I prefer September to December, Paul. We [generally] follow this policy and I'd ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could just put a semicolon and say "lesser restraint would be acceptable..."'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'How about "might be acceptable"?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Well, that's all right."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '... | no | null | null | null | null |
137 | 138 | 19981117_284_2 | MR. BERNARD. | "Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The directive language is: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent. In the... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay, I think we have a majority for "A" symmetric, 25 basis points.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'I have a question, Mr. Chairman, regarding the final sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'David Lindsey, we are still using the old directive.Do w... | no | null | null | null | null |
138 | 139 | 20031209_219_13 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "We can go later than that if you want." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Also, I have a list of people from the last meeting who wanted to speak on this issue but we ran out of time '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "Oh, I'm sorry. Did I speak out of turn? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': "No, you did not speak out of turn. I recognized y... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "You indicated that the January discussion would not preclude that possibility.My concern is that an intensive amount of stress-testing of three alternatives with the same amount of moving parts--albeit phrased somewhat differently or focused somewhat differently--will result in our... | no | null | null | null | null |
139 | 140 | 19780418_326_8 | MR. COLDWELL. | "[regarding] my expectations for the economy--that we are going to attack this inflation rate promptly and are likely to slow down the economy in the latter part of this year." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil Coldwell. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I find myself very compatible with what Paul Volcker just said. The 2 to 8 range seems terribly wide to me for M1 but I like the upper limit; the lower limit seems a bit low to me. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "We could go along too easily, I think, going above the long-term range.The 6 to 10 also looks a trifle high to me.I would rather see that at 5-1/2 to 9-1/2 or even 5 to 9 and then just pinning down the federal funds a little closer.A range that I had in mind was 6-3/4 to ... | no | null | null | null | null |
140 | 141 | 19800318_360_1 | MR. SCHULTZ. | "Unless we have a meeting." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "What happened to Richmond's projections? Is Richmond no longer in the projection business? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "We began to have as many misses as the Board's staff, so-- "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So you gave it up? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.'... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "If it started coming in even as high as we have projected, we'd begin resisting."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't think we should kid ourselves, either.If the New York projections turned out to be right and there were enormous upward pressure[in April], I don't ... | no | null | null | null | null |
141 | 142 | 19830713_1050_1 | MR. BLACK. | "You have to rewrite this." | You have to rewrite this. | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That is right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Hope over experience. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That leaves us with 5 to 9 percent for the remainder of this year and 5 to 9 percent for next year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "Well, the whole perio... | [{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Heck, I want 4 to 7 percent next year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, we could have 5 to 9 and 4 to 8.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'That would be my preference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'That would be my preference.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRM... | yes | no | null | null | null |
142 | 143 | 20040504_182_14 | MR. BROADDUS. | "Jack, of course, is the President of the Atlanta Fed, which is the Sixth Federal Reserve District." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "I think that's an important follow-up to your testimony as well. Whatever way we look at it, I think we're stuck with sentence 8. We're probably going to take grief from some quarters for this new language, but I think we're stuck with doing this. So I agree with your recommendatio... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "So I look forward to seeing what is in store for us.I very much agree with what Don just said.I think if we left out sentence 8, we would be sending the wrong message.We actually could be sending the wrong message in another way.We could be interpreted as saying that everything is ... | no | null | null | null | null |
143 | 144 | 19900207_372_1 | MR. BLACK. | "Some of you are still there!" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': '"B," symmetric, Mr. Chairman. I really have no new thoughts to add to those that have already been suggested. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhere between "B" and "C," as a matter... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'They do a lot of things that contribute to inflation and I don\'t see how we can offset here all the bad policy moves that come out of the Congress.It may sound macho to beat our chest and pretend we can, but I think the cost to the economy of doing this is going to be very, very sev... | no | null | null | null | null |
144 | 145 | 20000202_212_3 | MR. GUYNN. | "I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not." | I would like to join Bill Poole and Al Broaddus on the comments that you just heard. I, too, see considerable merit in moving in the direction of a more explicit inflation target. I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not. But particularly in the absence of such a target, I beli... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "The other thing that bothers me a little is that while I certainly have the sense that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth, I am uncertain how transitory it is and exactly what its magnitude is. So, I don't think the argument is absolutely ironclad. And if we g... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "One can make a pretty solid argument for making a change, so I don't feel that strongly about not doing so.But if we do, I believe there is going to be a significant communications issue, as Bill Poole and Jerry Jordan and others have pointed out.To me, this whole discussion is a ... | no | null | null | null | null |
145 | 147 | 19851105_49_9 | MS. HORN. | "but I think now their view is that the fiscal impasse will remain an impasse." | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "I myself just can't see anything out there that is going to get growth up into the 3 to 3-1/2 percent range as opposed to the 2 to 3 percent range. For a long time I thought housing could make the difference in terms of that marginal contribution, but I can't see that no... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'They are buying implements that might cost $50,000 to $60,0000 and picking them up for $15,000, $20,000, or $25,000.It is worth the trip out.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "That isn't recorded as consumer spending though, is it?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "No.But s... | no | null | null | null | null |
146 | 148 | 19800422_62_2 | MR. AXILROD. | "My memory is that there is genuine weakness in the unadjusted deposits." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'We thought we had a sure thing going with April because [the money supply in] April has bulged every year for the past 4 or 5 years it seems. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "You can't believe in anything anymore, can you? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "I'm n... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't know if you can arrange to get the swap repaid before then, Mr. Pardee.If not, let's negotiate vigorously so that the Treasury gets [the funds]."}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Gets to realize its losses!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Sternlig... | no | null | null | null | null |
147 | 149 | 19780228_243_4 | MR. WILLES. | "[Inflation] does seem to be a concern that more of our people have, and for that reason the major difference we have with the staff forecast is on their expectation of inflation." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'But what really perplexes me, Mr. Chairman--and I don=t say this to be critical--is the fact that so many sitting here today can recognize, apparently all of a sudden, that one of the big problems we face is inflation and one of the big inhibiting factors that is stopping businessmen ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Some day I assume those problems will occur, but we always seem to be somewhat pessimistic.Maybe that=s a way those of you who are much more skilled in the science of economics than I hedge your bets.But what really perplexes me, Mr. Chairman--and I don=t say this to be critical--is t... | no | null | null | null | null |
148 | 150 | 19770118_143_3 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish." | Gentlemen, let me just interrupt. I don't know why I was favored with this cup of coffee, but I was so favored, and therefore, if any of the rest of you would like coffee, you will not be so favored, but the coffee is right there. And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish. Gentlemen, the coffee... | [{'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': 'Does that respond to your question? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'If we decide that we are not an agency covered by the statute, but do decide to publish as a public gesture the Committee rules of procedure, we are then not constrained as to time by the Administrative ... | [{'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': 'There is item after item that I could take you through, were we covered, that make more difficult, more burdensome, [our] operation under the statute than if we were not under the statute but, in our own way, almost fully comply with the spirit of that statute.Does that respond t... | no | null | null | null | null |
149 | 151 | 19770419_276_12 | MR. GARDNER. | "We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment." | I hope to be brief. The economic [situation], as Willis has just indicated, is clearly buoyant. It has rekindled more specific fears of inflation. We have to expect that. That was bound to happen whenever the economic data became clearly positive. It seems remarkable to me that with the dispensing of the rebate program... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn now, please. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, I feel quite inadequate in trying to assess the psychological aspects of many of the current developments, but I feel rather strongly that the economic underlying factors are quite strong, and we may even ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'And I reconciled myself, I think pretty much because of what I judged to be the politics of the situation, to a stand-still posture during a couple months of high uncertainty with the fiscal stimulus program coming in.[But] it seems to me that, with that big uncertainty set aside,... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | utterance |
150 | 152 | 19770517_246_1 | MR. MORRIS. | "Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now." | Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now. I think the economy is very strong. I think the lull that Mr. Partee and Mr. Eastburn speak of is certainly a possibility, but I don't see in the indicators any evidence that it's probable. We are faced with this April bulge ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal? Do I understand you properly that you keep the funds rate at around 5-1/4 and only move it up if we were hitting the higher part of the ranges? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': "No, I would use the federal funds rate range in th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating.I think the economy is quite strong.I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think will ... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | -5 sentences |
151 | 153 | 19770621_411_1 | MR. O'CONNELL. | "Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision." | Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision. I agree with President Mayo that, at this time--or, may I suggest, Mr. Chairman, the [discussion], first, as to whether or not you will continue this operation, is appropriate; and then, whatever sense of the Committee [is] in terms of the alternative, to fol... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I think that's right, and I don't think we need to know specifically which approach will be adopted in the end. I think we need to know that one of the three will be adopted. That decision, I think, should be made today. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'So the decisi... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': 'Paul, you are suggesting, really, that we continue under the first approach and consider, after the IRS ruling, whether to adopt the second or the third approach.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': "Now, you've already ha... | yes | no | null | null | null |
152 | 154 | 19770719_81_5 | MR. ZEISEL. | "But on the negative side, we've had an extremely rapid recovery recently in residential construction activity." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "But at the same time, I see some things that suggest to me that strongly expansive factors may be at work, especially the federal deficit. We've got a rise in the federal deficit projected in a range, I guess, of $10 billion to $15 billion. And state and local expenditures, which I... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "With the rate of expansion that is indicated--that is, a slowing in 1978 even below 5 percent--I don't see much wrong because, as time goes by, we are getting closer to the full-employment ceiling and, even sooner probably, to the manufacturing capacity ceiling, the capital stock c... | no | null | null | null | null |
153 | 155 | 19770816_286_1 | MR. MAYO. | "Oh, I understand that, Steve." | Oh, I understand that, Steve. | [{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'The absurdity of that has stayed with me to this day and, I guess, colors what I have to say. End of second speech. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "President Mayo, I think there might be a misunderstanding of how we make the projections. The projections for the period between... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': "We are entitled to our best evaluation of the seasonal.But if I may take one more minute of the Committee's time.Thirty years ago I was in charge of doing the revenue estimating base in the Treasury.We had to get our base figures from Commerce.Obviously you do your revenue estimates n... | no | null | null | null | null |
154 | 156 | 19771018_266_3 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "But I've got to go to another meeting, and I believe the Bank Presidents have scheduled a meeting to start at 5:00." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If one factors in that probability, one-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'And assumes great wisdom. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': '--assumes great wisdom--I was going to say this raises other risks. It raises risks of acceleration of inflation; it reduces, I t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Now, I think if one wanted to make the realistic assessment of the situation, it is that we may very well get a stimulus from the Administration during the course of the year.The Administration talks about a 5 percent rate of growth during 1978--that is well above what we think.The... | no | null | null | null | null |
155 | 157 | 19771018_435_2 | MR. PARTEE. | "I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and the banks into the market, and the characteristics of a tightening in the old terms, a tightening financial environmen... | Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm in a real quandary today. I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and the banks into the market, and the characteristics of a tightening in... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "But any stimulus one gets from the supply side of the economy, in view of expectations of inflation, gets quickly undone by reactions on the demand side, with consumers saving more as a percent of their income when unanticipated inflation occurs, spending relatively less, and that f... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "But in terms of my own view, I am leaning increasingly toward the belief that there is little if any real tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, based on some work that has been done by various sources, including our own staff.But any stimulus one gets from the supply side of ... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
156 | 158 | 19771018_442_2 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off." | Strange things have happened in this room. Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off. | [{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, I'd like to note to the Committee that this is the period in our discussion when time is standing still. I'd like to follow Chuck's comments-- "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Let me just interrupt. Now, somebody on earth or in Heaven, is, I think, sensing the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "Mainly, I wouldn't give so much the [reason] that we want to cut back on housing, but mainly on the basis of interest rate relationships and past behavior and to say we would continue to watch the situation quite carefully.As far as the overrun is concerned, I know it's very substan... | no | null | null | null | null |
157 | 159 | 19771115_137_2 | MR. BLACK. | "I just mean over the future." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "And similarly, if we're forced to make these directives available immediately, I think that strengthens the case for looking further into the possibility of using a reserves target rather than a federal funds target, so that the interest rate movements in the federal funds market wil... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, along the lines of what Mr. Mayo suggested a while ago, I would think as a practical modus operandi in the interim that, when in doubt, we would tend to lean more towards an aggregates directive than a money market directive.For example, in today's meeting, I think a mo... | no | null | null | null | null |
158 | 160 | 19780117_208_2 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "I've had a similar meeting with Mr. Reuss." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'My understanding is that before he acts on this case, he and I will sit down and talk this over at length. Therefore, such a meeting will still take place. '}, {'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': "May I add, Mr. Chairman, as the Committee is also advised by materials in front ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'After receiving absolute assurance that it was entirely proper to talk with the Solicitor General, I had a telephone conversation with him.My understanding is that before he acts on this case, he and I will sit down and talk this over at length.Therefore, such a meeting will sti... | no | null | null | null | null |
159 | 161 | 19780117_389_8 | VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically." | Mr. Chairman, if I may have a point of personal privilege, as Vice Chairman of this Committee. I remember when I was first elected. When I arrived here you told me--indeed you announced to the Committee--that the job wasn't going to be very onerous. And I think that prediction, as many others, was borne out. I did get ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': "This may be the last--well, it will be the last meeting that I'll be presiding over. I want to say just one word. I don't think I've said it before. I am very pleased that at this last meeting of mine the Committee was unanimous. Thank you very much. "}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, I assume that this would mean not moving below 6-3/4 percent--not even considering a move below 6-3/4 percent--unless we were down at the low end of the ranges.And if we were down at that low end, we would want to be in touch with the Committee.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BU... | yes | no | null | null | null |
160 | 162 | 19780228_151_4 | MR. HOLMES. | "Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that." | Mr. Chairman, regrettably, I do have one final recommendation. As you know, the Committee has authorized an open position of $1.75 billion in foreign currencies. At the present time, we have a leeway of exactly $106 million, which is not very large relative to potential [operations]. Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I think, Mr. Chairman, that you=re right. Though in particular in the German case, as Governor Wallich was commenting, I think the deceleration, if any, is imperceptible relative to the United States. But for most of the weaker countries, there has been a sharp deceleration in their... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'The rate of money growth [in their] M3 is higher than in our M1, but not higher than our M3, which is really a different number.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Their M1 is higher than our--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'The direction of the trend--'}, {'sp... | yes | null | null | null | null |
161 | 163 | 19780321_65_4 | CHAIRMAN MILLER. | "Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies." | Yes. We have all these policy dilemmas we are speaking about. Relative growth rates are such that we are going to continue to have these large current account deficits. Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the rel... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "Scott, if my arithmetic is correct, there's $50 million of Treasury money left. What happens if you hit a big day? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Well, Alan was going to cover this question. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil, do you have a question? '}, {'... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': "The German banks and Swiss bankers--I have talked to some of these fellows--said they sold dollars out of anger that they did not get the bonds they wanted.They thought [such bonds] were going to be very attractive for them to hold and to market and they were looking for those to be... | yes | null | null | null | null |
162 | 164 | 19780321_270_15 | VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass." | I'll be brief with a couple of random comments, Mr. Chairman. I don't think there is a great deal of informational content, as a number of people have said, in the recent statistics so far as the future is concerned. My own presumption is that [the economy] should be fairly strong after we get through this period, reco... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': "So it seems to me that we're likely to find much more stimulus there than is [implicit] in the projection and I'm disturbed by the stirrings in Congress about wanting to do something at this level. Once they take the bit in their teeth we may get a much greater stimulus than firm lead... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': "I think then people may realize that this may follow through a little longer than one would normally expect.My chief concern, however, is in the fiscal policy area, and this is where I would quarrel, I think, with the staff estimates.I would focus primarily on the state and local area... | yes | null | null | null | null |
163 | 165 | 19780321_363_2 | MR. WILLES. | "What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason." | Just to respond to that point because I think that's one of the key points to the argument on the other side, which is that we ought to be making policy looking ahead as to what's going to happen six to nine months down the road. What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appea... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I think there has been a tremendously favorable reaction to my strong statement on inflation already. It hasn\'t been negative. [The reaction] has been, "My God, if that\'s true, let us do something." '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think there is a subtle ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You see, if I\'m asked before the [Congressional] Committee on April 25 what my personal views on inflation are, they are going to be higher than the Administration\'s and that\'s going to be in the newspaper.Now whether we want to say we all have a view that\'s leaning a bit t... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
164 | 166 | 19780418_7_1 | MR. PARDEE. | "Well, I haven't seen-- We had one day or two days on which the dollar rose." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Our policy, as I understand it, is to counter disorder. It would appear that when the mark-dollar relationship goes adverse to the dollar, we buy $100 million. When it goes favorably to the dollar, we buy 5 or 10 million [marks]. W... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'On that occasion he again reminded me that I had an obligation to inform the FOMC of his concern about this.I am now so informing you so that you will all know he is concerned about why we want to handle M3 in that way and he wanted me to bring this to your attention with redou... | no | null | null | null | null |
165 | 167 | 19780418_137_9 | MR. WILLES. | "It was interesting to me that I found nobody below 7 percent." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'I think our recent changes in the forecast really have been driven by largely exogenous factors. But I would not disagree with your underlying point, which I guess is that [money growth] does matter. If we had had higher interest rates in l977 and lower rates of growth in the aggr... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': "According to the Board's econometric model, the System model, it really is a matter of looking ahead two or three years.So I would think the results of having overshoots in l977 probably would have a very small impact today but it may be growing over time.One of the difficulties h... | no | null | null | null | null |
166 | 168 | 19780418_425_1 | MR. PARTEE. | "I would be very much opposed to taking it out." | I would be very much opposed to taking it out. | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'There are all sorts of [references to] M1 below that. This is just the historic past now. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "But I still don't-- "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "Yes, M2 is the second sentence, isn't it? What is the sentiment? "}] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I am a little nervous that if we get it down to 4 and find ourselves--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'We have protected ourselves by that consultation at 7-1/4.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes.Well, how about 4 to 8-1/2?Is that all right?SEVERAL.Sure'},... | yes | no | null | null | null |
167 | 169 | 19780516_107_3 | MR. WALLICH. | "We are likely to get another bad month in April because we've had a bad wholesale price index." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': "I've also been convinced since last fall that it's time to change automobiles. There are an incredible number of models which offer longer mileage and certain advantages like front wheel drive. It's quite impressive and, therefore, I'm not surprised at all by the automobile record ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "Do we want to start with volunteers or should I just start here with Steve and go around?Why don't we ask you, Steve, to give us your views?Do you agree with the staff or do you have--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': "Yes, I'm reasonably in agreement with the staff.I've ... | no | null | null | null | null |
168 | 170 | 19780516_111_4 | MR. COLDWELL. | "I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify." | Mr. Chairman, I find myself in agreement with Governor Wallich's comments. I think our effective labor supply is narrowing and I think our capacity availability is less than shown. I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "We don't have to shift to that right now but by the end of the year it seems to me we ought to not worry at all if we're in the 3 to 4 or around the 3-1/2 percent range. That makes me somewhat more relaxed about concerns that the economy is not as strong as it seemed to be. "}, {'s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "[The unemployment rate for] married males is 3 percent, if it hasn't gone down below that.So my concern about inflation rests on these factors.Now, as far as income is concerned, if you take 6 percent unemployment or near there--I would be surprised if it did go below that--what we... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | sentence |
169 | 171 | 19780516_392_6 | MR. BLACK. | "Otherwise, I think we act at the same trigger point." | I do have one technical point--and I hate to prolong this--but it says here that the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of the aggregates M1 and M2 and "the following ranges..." But when we use a money market directive we have a different trigger point. When we have a moneta... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I think it's wrong when it's not actively influencing the direction of what we are doing. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': "And you are pretty sure you won't want it [in again] before a month has passed? "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I hope not. Bob... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "While I tend to like Phil Coldwell's suggestion, I think I agree with you that we are getting into substance and it probably shouldn't be done.But I'm also willing to leave everything the way it is and let you consider it at the next meeting."}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCK... | yes | no | null | null | null |
170 | 172 | 19780718_104_1 | MR. BAUGHMAN. | "Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fair time for them to become great enough, to terminate the expansive influences." | Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fair time for them to become great enough, to terminate the expansive influences. And I think there is still some possibil... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'So I would expect something like 6 to 6-1/2 on prices in that kind of situation and obviously the unemployment rate above 6 percent by the second quarter of the year. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you so sure about a recession? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRI... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'The unemployment side I think is the most favorable of the whole package.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you.Frank.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "Well, Mr. Chairman I think we are headed for a recession in l979.I don't know whether it is going to start ... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
171 | 173 | 19780919_48_1 | MR. PARTEE. | "I think it depends partly, Mr. Chairman, on what you think the intervention is for." | I think it depends partly, Mr. Chairman, on what you think the intervention is for. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "I hope, because the next meeting is the meeting for setting ranges, that we will use the interim time [to look carefully at] the memo so that we'll be prepared to respond to this. I think the proposals are reasonable. It doesn't make sense [currently]. The United States should ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'May I say one more thing, Mr. Chairman, at the risk of running [too long on] this.The EC government wants to homogenize all our swaps.That means bringing up things like the 50-50 and other minor differences, although we homogenized them pretty much last year.Lester said he would tr... | yes | no | null | null | null |
172 | 174 | 19780919_59_10 | MR. KICHLINE. | "I think a major difference in these forecasts relates to consumer spending patterns." | On the second one, I feel comfortable in talking about it but Steve has developed some material on that and perhaps he might wish to comment on your second question. With regard to the first question--that is, the Greenbook forecast relative to various outside forecasts--of the ones I've seen I think it's quite correct... | [{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': "Jim, I have a question--or really two questions. One has to do with the Greenbook forecast compared with what I understand to be most of the other forecasts around. As near as I can determine, the Greenbook is more optimistic than any other projection, and I wonder if you would sp... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "I think that it might be desirable today to omit that particular round robin since we've done it fairly frequently on the second quarter.There isn't that much change and perhaps we'll do that quarterly instead of every time.Instead, I would suggest after a chance to comment or ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
173 | 175 | 19781017_228_12 | MR. WILLES. | "The only way we can make the adjustment is to figure out what we think the most likely adjustment is." | I found Steve's presentation very helpful. I'd like to follow his presentation to make a couple of statements as much by way of making sure I understand what he said as well as arguing what I think is right. If you look first at M1, for example, without adjusting for automatic transfers, there is a question as to wheth... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "I think it's very hard to estimate. And remember, M1+ will include all of the ATS accounts whether they're truly transactions accounts or idle balances. It will include any conversion from thrifts to the banks that are put in there in order to raise the minimum size of the account t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "I think for policy purposes it's highly desirable not to raise the M2 and M3 ranges and to leave the current ranges, which give enough scope--even if the staff projections are right--to be within them.And they provide added scope, in case the President's program is effective, to ha... | yes | null | null | null | null |
174 | 176 | 19781219_257_2 | VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "This is the basic limit and I think the Committee probably ought to have one." | I happen to have a preference along with Governor Coldwell on this. This is the basic limit and I think the Committee probably ought to have one. I would swallow the public relations disadvantage and make sure it's big enough, but I could go either way in the end. | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Are you suggesting that you can take the aggregate limit and put it under the procedural instructions? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'The aggregate limit would disappear under this proposal. You would not be without some control. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.',... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "And we would not, as I understand it--subject to being better informed--have to publish any of what we do in this area because it comes under the procedural instructions, which we don't publish, [whereas] any [change] in the authorization does have to be made public.Furthermore, ev... | yes | no | null | null | null |
175 | 177 | 19781219_409_1 | CHAIRMAN MILLER. | "It comes up every meeting because I don't know that you can bind future FOMCs to having only certain spreads." | It comes up every meeting because I don't know that you can bind future FOMCs to having only certain spreads. I think any FOMC can put on any spread they want. New people come on and change their minds. | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "Well, there's recommendation 4, which has a great deal to do with the question of whether we can say that what the Committee has done has some relationship with what the President wants done. And I think [following] your suggestion would make it less likely that we'd consider it con... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "That's a very good point; the cone gets wider as you go up."}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, we slip the base every quarter now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "That's the problem.Where we get the problem now is slipping the base.If we stuck by our original o... | yes | no | null | null | null |
176 | 178 | 19790522_398_2 | MR. BALLES. | "I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is saying." | I share Chuck's view. I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is saying. I'd keep it where it is. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'In other words, you would not want to expand it to $2 billion. Then the question is: Do you like the proposal in the memo? Paul. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, it is reasonable. MR. AL"N. President Balles. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "Well, I had that attitude, too.I was very much opposed to it until [the dollar's weakness] went so far that I knew it was oversold."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "Let's run down [the list] and ask the members if they are for the policy and if so, if they have a preferen... | yes | no | null | null | null |
177 | 179 | 19790814_299_5 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Well, let's go all the way and say acceptable." | Well, I don't attribute any great weight to that other than the inherent uncertainty in these things. I have been watching those numbers enough that my discount factor is extremely high. The trouble is my discount factor on all these numbers is extremely high in any short-run period. Let me just ask the preferences fir... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Following Phil, here, the money market directive at the moment. With that high a range, I'm a little worried about an aggregates directive. Again, there's just some uncertainty about what will happen in the very short run. I just looked over Tom's shoulder and New York already... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'It seems to me, then, that if we want the 10-3/4 to 11-1/4 percent [funds range], that just gives us a 1/4 point to work in, which bothers me a little.But the telephone is always there and we can call a meeting and raise it if we have to.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text'... | yes | yes | utterance | ambiguous | null |
178 | 180 | 19790918_21_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I don't know what that implies." | Well, [you say] "does need to be." I don't know what that implies. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It's true that the dollar has been appreciating against most other currencies. But if the market gets in its head that the dollar is really going down, would we be able to stop it without spending a lot more money than we're already spending? That is the question. And let me s... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "That does not say that they would mind particularly if the mark appreciated, and that notion is fairly well imbedded in market thinking.On the other hand, I don't think the other Europeans want the mark to appreciate because of the opposite side of that coin from their standpo... | no | null | null | null | null |
179 | 181 | 19790918_261_1 | MR. COLDWELL. | "If I had a preference straight out, the range would be 3 to 7 percent, but I'm persuaded that with the present projection 8 percent growth is a possibility." | If I had a preference straight out, the range would be 3 to 7 percent, but I'm persuaded that with the present projection 8 percent growth is a possibility. All I'm saying is that I'd much prefer to make sure that we do use some of the [funds] range if we're approaching that [upper limit]. I just think 8 is too high. I... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't think there is any question about that. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "I have no objections to having a telephone call. I'm a little bothered about saying that [Ml growth] has to be at 8 percent [before we confer] because I think 8 is too high. If it means t... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If the aggregates were strong enough, I think we could use this whole range here.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'If the aggregates were strong enough?You would say that [Ml growth] would have to get up to the full 8 percent in order to move even to the 11-3/4 percent... | yes | yes | null | entailment | -5 sentences |
180 | 182 | 19791006_29_13 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "We wouldn't be here today if we didn't have a problem with the state of the markets, whether international or domestic." | Well, let me say where I think we are even though Emmett is still absent. I appreciate your all standing by so patiently over the past few days, but we've had a few complications putting this together, with some people out of town and so forth. Just in terms of the schedule for today, I think we have to assume that the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Well, Sears has gone through particular problems. '}, {'speaker': 'M R . PARTEE.', 'text': 'It seems to me that they were in bad shape about a year ago. '}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': "It shouldn't be used as an example for the whole country. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'te... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Bones did you want to comment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMEREL.', 'text': "I'd simply echo [Tom Timlenl.In the last week we had a series of business leaders in from Jacksonville, Atlanta, and New Orleans.They [exhibited] an enthusiastic lack of confidence in so many areas.But for ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
181 | 183 | 19800109_597_1 | MR. COLDWELL. | "You mean we should react more rapidly if M1 growth goes up with the interest rates falling than if M1 growth went down and interest rates were rising." | You mean we should react more rapidly if M1 growth goes up with the interest rates falling than if M1 growth went down and interest rates were rising. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But let me say that we would be more concerned about a situation where [growth] was tending toward the lower side, 4 percent or below--we can't control these things that closely--and interest rates were rising; we would tend to get aggressive more quickly, providing more reser... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'In terms of the range [for Ml], as I said, everybody was [for growth] between 4 and 5 percent, and I would propose that we just state it in the directive as "between 4 and 5 percent," which I think is consistent with the atmospherics of the [situation].That is open to an inter... | no | null | null | null | null |
182 | 184 | 19800205_86_8 | MR. WILLES. | "And yet if we structure that penalty in the right way, in fact, we're not going to give away much in terms of sloppiness in the reserve figures." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I found Henry's comments and Chuck's comments particularly useful. So I would like to [be recorded as agreeing with] whatever you wrote down for them. I would add one thought, which goes back to the comment that Bob Mayo made. I am not much for gimmicks, either. But if there's a bank relations ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "First, I would agree with the Account Manager that this is likely to have [only] minor advantages. But secondly, I would caution the Committee that this is another interruption in the overall picture of [the policy] the Committee is trying to follow. If we add that on top of our r... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "I know this is somewhat general, but that's how I would respond to the kinds of comments that Irv makes."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It depends in considerable part upon what we do with the discount window issue.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Yes.I am sur... | yes | null | null | null | null |
183 | 185 | 19800422_154_9 | MS. TEETERS. | "And we're obviously not going to have very many automobiles built." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "I find it hard to imagine that whatever inflationary psychology might develop as a result of a temporary expansion in the rate of growth in money would last for a long time in the face of a nominal GNP growth that is roughly twice the rate of growth of the money supply. In other words... | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "It seems to me that the basic risks are that if we revise our targets downward, we risk making the recession worse and that if we stick to our current targets, we risk some misunderstanding of our policy and the inflationary psychology in the market might worsen.I would be clearly inc... | no | null | null | null | null |
184 | 186 | 19800520_339_1 | MR. WALLICH. | "Why don't you let individual members of the Committee call you when they think that Chuck's zone is being approached?" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is the difference. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And there was no vote on the 16 percent, as a matter of fact. It was just an understanding that at 15 or 16 percent, whatever it was-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '16. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTM... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Would you refer to this as the twilight zone?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "I think if the Committee indicates as it passes through that zone that it doesn't see a need to change the fundamental range, Mr. Altmann might not view it as a vote that needs to be reported."}, ... | no | null | null | null | null |
185 | 187 | 19800709_317_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with playing games." | I think there is something to what you say, looking at history. And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with playing games. We said a certain range was valid at one po... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': "We will enforce our credibility by being candid. I don't think we ought to play games. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I don\'t think we ought to associate a change in the ranges--if we think we have good grounds for a change --with playing games or horsing around.... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': "And I think we should make at least a strong statement--we don't want to be specific--that going into 1981 we are going to reduce gradually the rate of growth of the narrow aggregates.Incidentally, our people did a study of M2 and they feel that M2 is not an accurate predictor of GNP,... | yes | no | null | null | null |
186 | 188 | 19800709_423_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "It calls for a decision, but I don't know that it says how it has to go in [the directive]." | It calls for a decision, but I don't know that it says how it has to go in [the directive]. We have to put down some language in the report anyway, but I don't quite see why it has to be in the directive. Steve has some [suggested] language. Let me just try it out in terms of the tenor of it. "Looking ahead to 1981, th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "It's in the longer-term paragraph, isn't it? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': "That's right. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why do we need it in there now? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'That was the decision made at the time that the Committee consid... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "What do we have to say in the directive, Mr. Secretary, about 1981?Nothing, do we?This isn't a directive question, is it?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'I can answer that perhaps by telling you what we said at this time last year.After citing the ranges for 1979, the ... | yes | null | null | null | null |
187 | 189 | 19800916_135_1 | MR. KICHLINE. | "Well, I am referring to the nonfarm business sector." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Just a small amount--3 percent relative to [a decline of] 8-3/4 percent in the second quarter. So they are still down. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Three percent down. But you have a GNP estimate down 3 percent, roughly. I just-- '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': "Well, people refer to different things.A standard approach is to use a cyclically adjusted productivity number, and those estimates range all over the lot.Our own is something like 3/4 of a percentage point.And it's assumed that businesses tend to respond to changes in productivit... | no | null | null | null | null |
188 | 190 | 19801021_27_1 | MR. SCHULTZ. | "But we're coming up pretty close to the limit right now." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "We didn't pay all [our mark indebtedness] off and we could have done so at that time. Now the question really is: If similar conditions develop, and there's no assurance that they will, should we follow the same strategy or should we follow a different strategy? That is, should we ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "Now, last time we operated so as to allow the dollar to run up pretty far; it came down again.We had a very pronounced upward and downward trip which did no particular good.We didn't accumulate or gather in for repayment a very large amount, although we did do some but over time.We... | no | null | null | null | null |
189 | 191 | 19801021_331_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "It's just the opposite of what we did last time." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And I suppose we need to make the borrowing number a little more concrete to give us some feeling of how fast we should react if the number comes in high--I don't know that it's so much a question of how fast, but how strongly--and the reverse if it comes in low, as to how pas... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I suppose after listening to all of this, I\'d be perfectly happy to put that number between "A" and "B." So, let me hear your reactions to all of that.And I suppose we need to make the borrowing number a little more concrete to give us some feeling of how fast we should react... | no | null | null | null | null |
190 | 192 | 19801219_195_5 | MR. WALLICH. | "And we would get some of the protection that you have in mind, Chuck." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Confidence in [none], Chuck? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Absolutely none. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Including your own? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, we owe it to ourselves-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I'll strike th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'We could run those up and run those down, and the effect would be a form of multicurrency intervention.We could buy DM or we could go to the market and convert those DM into a SDR denominated deposit and we would then cover some of our exchange risks.We may worry about the investmen... | no | null | null | null | null |
191 | 193 | 19810331_161_2 | MR. PARTEE. | "I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are." | It just shows how tricky this whole thing is; I hadn't understood it. I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are. Nothing happened adversely as a result of it, but I thought we had made a downward adjustment in the path that [would not be changed] until the Committee reconsidered the matte... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "That is exactly what was done after the February 24th call. The borrowing level in the last 2 weeks of the first 4 weeks of the 8-week interval--I don't know what it was in the 3rd week, but it was very low in the 4th week--would have been zero. It was understood after that call th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "Well, I hadn't understood that that was going to happen.I can see how that would be an interpretation, but this is the first I have heard of that--that it was a temporary reduction and then the path was restored."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I'm not sure that's quite... | yes | no | null | null | null |
192 | 194 | 19810331_379_5 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I'm a little surprised that you came out for "C." It's against that background that I ask this." | Well, we will see. It would certainly ease our problems if it were over fairly soon. I'm a bit confused by what you said, [Larry]. I just want to clarify it. I'm a little surprised that you came out for "C." It's against that background that I ask this. My confusion is what numbers you are using. The numbers in the tab... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The idea that the country is going to adapt to this in a few months just does not jive with the New England experience. Now, maybe the rest of the country moves a lot faster than we do in New England, but I doubt it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'The fact that we have muc... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'In the early part of this month, increases had been about $2 billion.I would assume from here on out--or early next month--that the increases might be more in the $1 to $1-1/2 billion range and then come down again.We are at a higher rate of growth than we expected.'}, {'speaker': ... | yes | yes | utterance | neutral | utterance |
193 | 195 | 19810518_229_8 | VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. | "I'm influenced not only by the strength of the economy--and there is a widespread feeling around the country, and certainly in the market, that with the exception of the troubled sectors the economy is very strong--but I'm also influenced by the fact that if the President's program goes through, even with a compromise... | Unless you could tell us that, I feel that we have to go even further this way. I feel we should take alternative C, but not the initial borrowing assumption of $3 billion. I'd start off with a $2-1/4 to $2-1/2 billion borrowing assumption. I think that we have to have a fed funds range going up to 22 percent. And even... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'What we\'ve done so far isn\'t having too much effect. So, I guess I would now come out somewhere between "B" and "C," keeping borrowing around $2 billion and perhaps shading that up if necessary. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAI... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'In addition, I have the same thoughts that were expressed here a little earlier: That we are putting a lot of pressure on various parts of the economy and that it\'s going to be hard to get out of this without some kind of financial crisis.The one really strong feeling I have is th... | yes | yes | null | entailment | utterance |
194 | 196 | 19810518_268_11 | MR. CORRIGAN. | "As I suggested earlier, there are some risks here, and I think we have to be prepared to take some risks." | We have a little frustration, too, with respect to this question of how quickly the banking system responds to what we do. We saw a classic illustration of that in this period here, apropos to your comment earlier, Governor Partee. We seem to have a situation where, even when we begin to firm up, what happens for a cou... | [{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': "We have more than our share of frustrations in policy here, too. We just got through revising up the money supply a little in the first quarter, convincing ourselves that that made more sense. But now we find that the GNP may be revised up more, so we're further away than we thoug... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "This leads us to conclude that it's distinctly possible that we can get a slowdown in money growth this year from last year, along the lines of the midpoint of our shift-adjusted range, without keeping interest rates that high that long, and to a point where we would see somewhat mo... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
195 | 197 | 19810518_579_1 | SPEAKER(?). | "No, I was going to vote--" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How many will accept the 2 percent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': "Accept 2 percent? I'll accept either one. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Eight. I'm afraid I succeeded in biasing the thing. "}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'Five.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Five, okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "There's an exception."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Was your hand up or down?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I accept this.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 't... | no | null | null | null | null |
196 | 198 | 19811006_481_3 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "If it's $4 or $5 billion, we wouldn't be." | I don't know what the number is. But let's say it's distinctly below $2-1/2 billion; we will probably gradually be lowering the borrowing right off. If it's $4 or $5 billion, we wouldn't be. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I hope you are right in this sense. But what we are probably running into here is this: If the low money figure for publication this week is confirmed and next week is low, this $800 million that we started with will probably be lowered pretty promptly. If we get a bulge in th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "We've assumed that that level of borrowing implies a funds rate of something like 14-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent.I don't know if Peter thinks it is exactly in that range.We probably are going to get M-1B growth on the order of 6, 7, or 8 percent; so if that's right, I wouldn't assume any... | no | null | null | null | null |
197 | 199 | 19811117_56_1 | MR. BLACK. | "That would be interesting to watch over time." | That would be interesting to watch over time. I'm not sure that that will [continue]. | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Well, in the short run our experience is that [growth in] money market funds tends to speed up with rate declines because of the lag in [the adjustment of] their rates. As rates declined this time, we found a rather unusual experience in that savings deposits at banks accelerated. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Let me tell you, it'd be--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Would you care to designate him?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Now that Mr. Axilrod has consulted all of us--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': "It depends on whether you're a smoker or a non-smoker... | yes | yes | -5 sentences | null | null |
198 | 200 | 19811222_106_1 | MR. KEEHN. | "On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way." | On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way. Their focus is now shifting from concentration on the financial aspects of the package to the job per se. For example, the UAW has indicated a willin... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'So, it seems to be very widespread. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Eastern Pennsylvania you mean? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "There is an area around Lancaster and Harrisburg, the South Central area, where generally the unemployment rate is well under the nation... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "I wouldn't say a lot more than we are used to in my part of the country, but I am hearing of more cutbacks in the work force in the plants that are operating--not outright shutdowns but [reductions of] 450 here and 800 there.It is very common [to hear such reports] in talking to peo... | yes | no | null | null | null |
199 | 201 | 19811222_433_5 | MR. BALLES. | "So, despite all of our frustrations about what money is, how it behaves, and what should be in M1 and M2, it is still the only game in town as far as I am concerned." | Mr. Chairman, one more observation: I'd just like to remind you that back in the mid-1970s we had one of the several Committees on the directive--some of us at this table served on it--chaired first by Bob Holland and later by Chuck Partee. We took a long, hard look at optimal control, working on the ultimate variables... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But this is a reflection of a change in law. It's like the M1 adjustment problem. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "It's so clearly understandable by everybody that there's a rationale for taking it out. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I'm not ar... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Conceptually, the argument is very strong, as I see it, to take those out of M2 on liquidity grounds.But suppose we went ahead and did that.What we don't know is how much money is going into IRA accounts that otherwise would have been in M2 or is already in M2, so we'd get an ... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
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