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200 | 202 | 19820330_97_3 | MR. AXILROD. | "I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point." | Well, I would relax myself if it were between 8 and 10 percent. I think you're getting on to strong policy judgments beyond that. I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point. | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Is that published? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'So the people in the market know what that number is? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Oh, yes; that's right. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': "Are you not sayin... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Except for 1980, which we threw out.And then 1981 gets thrown out by the machines.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Well, we didn't throw 1980 out."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "The last two years aren't in there.And it looks as if--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. A... | yes | no | null | null | null |
201 | 203 | 19820824_193_4 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I'm just making a technical point." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It's a matter of choice here. We have a directive now that says immediately in the next sentence that somewhat more rapid growth would be acceptable [depending upon certain developments]. So, I think one could interpret this M2 running a bit high as basically being in line wit... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Steve, under alternative A, had put in 10 percent for M2.At this moment in time [M1] is running below the 5 percent, but that target is for the quarter as a whole and it's not clear it is going to run below 5 percent for the quarter as a whole.That depends upon what we think i... | no | null | null | null | null |
202 | 204 | 19821005_179_4 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I don't know whether we can [unintelligible] that issue." | But, in my opinion, it's only going to be manageable with unusual exertions. And in the end I'm afraid this institution may be called upon for unusual exertion simply because there is no other in a comparable position. It's the only possibility in terms of having the leadership and the resources necessary to deal with ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "In a very big sense, I think we are on the verge of victory in what we've been trying to do. It's a delicate situation, but it's also a very risky situation. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What kind of victory, a Pyrrhic victory? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN V... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And that raises issues that we have not had to face before--except perhaps marginally in the case of Mexico.I don't know if it's going to come up; I hope it doesn't.My position is that it should not come up.On the other hand, I cannot exclude it, given the nature of the proble... | yes | no | null | null | null |
203 | 205 | 19821221_170_1 | MR. AXILROD. | "Well, that would only be if the Committee wanted to; we just suggested that." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "So the built-in response could be less and the practical question would be [whether to take] a $200 million, roughly, movement of total reserves beyond where the Committee wanted it on average to trigger an ad hoc adjustment to the nonborrowed [reserve path]. It may be as we gain e... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': "I'm saying, as Lyle has just said, that we have to pay more attention to interest rates; I don't understand how the Desk would accommodate either an increase or a decrease in the nonborrowed path for the purpose of trying to adjust [operations] in an intermeeting period on [the basi... | no | null | null | null | null |
204 | 206 | 19821221_190_8 | MR. BOEHNE. | "But I certainly would stay quite flexible, with a sharp eye on interest rates." | Well, I think it is the time for focusing on what works rather than some predetermined theology. That is clearly what we need. Jerry Corrigan put it well: An intermediate target is a very useful thing to have both for political and self discipline reasons. I think it's going to be a while, if ever, before M1 is clear. ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't know how much longer [we can continue]. We're not going to get through everybody on this [issue today]. Not everybody wants to say something. Maybe we can go through a few more. Mr. Boehne. "}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': "It's a bit vague; certainly M3 is a bit vague.For that matter M2 is not a model of clarity.But I'd like to see M2 and M3 specified and a little more emphasis in our public utterances on interest rates.We're not fooling anybody, you know.The folks out there know that we're paying a l... | yes | yes | sentence | neutral | utterance |
205 | 207 | 19821221_256_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Well, what I understand is that we were asked to give a Committee or a Board forecast." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The bill rate is now slightly higher than it was in the middle of September. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But Tony is right. The discount rate and the funds rate have been closely linked. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'They are bound to be when we are... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "But I don't think the market or other people are faulting us one way or another for pegging an interest rate.I don't think that it has gotten to a point where they think we are pegging in a targeting sense.If the fed funds rate doesn't move more than 20 basis points or so... | no | null | null | null | null |
206 | 208 | 19821221_402_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Well, we just have to wait and see." | I don't think the IMF has said they would accept $4-1/2 billion except as a starting point--that they might go ahead temporarily if Mexico will be getting the rest later. Well, we just have to wait and see. But that's the general strategy. On Brazil, which is not irrelevant even though we have no money in there, the Tr... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That will really be serious. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Then we have a real problem. But they already have [commitments for] basically more than $4 billion except that some of that is contingent on getting more, so it's not perfectly clear yet. "}, {'speaker': 'VI... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "It just seems too uncertain, though, doesn't it, Tony?We just don't know.That bank credit might be [$4] billion instead of $5 billion or something like that.I don't know what a little shortfall like that does to their arithmetic."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It will ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
207 | 209 | 19821221_635_1 | MR. BALLES. | "Just to nail that down once more, how many points off the M2 numbers in the Bluebook?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "I'm sorry, I meant M2--I meant M3 actually. We used the numbers for M3, but we reduced M2. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Those you think are pretty good? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'For the M3 numbers. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': "In the first quarter, it's 2 percent real and 4-1/2 percent inflation."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles, you had a question before.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "Well, I think my clarifying question has been asked twice now.I gather that the alterna... | no | null | null | null | null |
208 | 210 | 19830209_412_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Yes, but you're saying if your velocity assumption is wrong." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If everybody else really believes his or her forecast and believes this velocity business, we ought to have higher-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Higher targets. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Higher targets. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Our quarterly model, for what it's worth, given the interest rates and income, would predict about a 7 percent growth in Ml.That was one of the reasons I thought that a higher growth than 5-1/2 percent was likely; I couldn't see this downward demand shift we've been experiencing oc... | no | null | null | null | null |
209 | 211 | 19830209_973_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Just to be clear, I think the second part would reflect a view that right now we don't want to tighten, which is implied by the existing language but is not quite as clear." | Expecting; that's not promising, but expecting. Just to be clear, I think the second part would reflect a view that right now we don't want to tighten, which is implied by the existing language but is not quite as clear. If we're putting in both sentences, it says we don't want to tighten right now but we do contemplat... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "and then you suggested something else that I didn't quite understand. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The other thing is not an alternative; it just takes care of another possibility--a further [action] not for today. The first one says we will maintain the existing de... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It leaves open the question of how we quantify this or whether we quantify it at all in the directive.I think what that says is that we don't want to tighten up in this next seven-week period as we see it nowand we don't want to ease up unless the aggregates turn in a favorabl... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
210 | 212 | 19830524_272_2 | MR. BOEHNE. | "I think things are sort of at an even keel and if business and mortgage markets thought that the low rates were over and that rates not only were not going to stay about where they are but were going to back up, that would have a major negative impact on psychology." | I would think that a prime rate increase that could be linked, rightly or wrongly, with a snugging up by the Fed would have a definite detrimental effect on these expectations of good things to happen. I think things are sort of at an even keel and if business and mortgage markets thought that the low rates were over a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "We're going to get an upward bias, which I think is the wrong thing at the present time. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't think one can say the market expects no change. A straightforward reading of the market says they already anticipate it. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "One can't be 100 percent certain, but the probabilities are that the prime rate would go up if the funds rate is moved up as much as half a point, and it just seems to me that we're going much too far."}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What are the expectations in th... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | sentence |
211 | 213 | 19840327_252_1 | MR. PARTEE. | "It is conceivable that we might have some embarrassments looking ahead." | It is conceivable that we might have some embarrassments looking ahead. We don't have any now. We can get out gracefully now. And it won't present a possible issue later on. | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "Going back some years, yes. When government securities were in short supply it was helpful but it hasn't been that critical. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': "But that's no longer present. The market is mature; I don't see why we don't get out of it. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Well, I don't think it is absolutely dependent but I may be wrong.Historically when we used to buy them outright--maybe not in recent years but going back to the '20s, '30s and '40s--somebody would sit there and say: Is this a good acceptance?Has it got the document attached?D... | yes | no | null | null | null |
212 | 214 | 19840327_692_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I think you're back at the wording of the directive." | I think you're back at the wording of the directive. Let me see whether we can sort this out. | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Except that you have promoted M1. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Well, that's a separate decision. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "I think there is a difference between starting off the way the Chairman has been talking about on the degree of reserv... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't know what ball game you think we've been playing in the last few months, but I don't see much difference here, frankly.It says we're going to set a restraint level and we're going to stick to it depending upon how these aggregates go, but we are going to look at what i... | yes | null | null | null | null |
213 | 215 | 19840522_115_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "If those banks down in Atlanta aren't worried about Continental, I assume they are fully funded." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "On the wage side, the automobile people I talked to--and I talked to them as recently as last week--are indicating that they think the auto settlement could well be a leading indicator and they are concerned about what might happen during those negotiations. Just one final point:... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "This is more of a gut feeling, I suppose, that inflation is going to pop up again probably by the end of the year; they don't have any hard evidence except in some isolated industries where they are seeing some price increases.On the wage side, the automobile people I talked to--... | no | null | null | null | null |
214 | 216 | 19840821_21_4 | MR. PARTEE. | "I seem to recall that we observed the same kind of phenomenon when Franklin borrowed sizable amounts in the summer of 1974, and I'm wondering whether there isn't something about the channels of distribution that could have some marginal impact on the rate relationship." | Peter, I too am sort of mystified by this up-creep in the funds rate relative to borrowings. It's really quite obvious and seems to be rather enduring. You mentioned Continental's borrowing in a negative way--as not being a factor--but I'm inclined to wonder whether in fact it isn't a factor. I seem to recall that we o... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'If it did happen pretty soon, would you hold to your borrowing target and let the federal funds rate come down? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "Well, that would depend a good deal on the nature of the discussion around the table here. I think [the answer is] mechanically,... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any comments or questions about the earlier part?Mr. Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "Peter, do you regard this recently widening spread between the discount rate and federal funds rate as a transitory phenomenon that's likely to be reversed fairly soon?If so, how ... | yes | yes | null | null | null |
215 | 217 | 19840821_268_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. | "But we don't know how long that shift will persist." | But we don't know how long that shift will persist. The usual-- | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'There would be two ways of going at it and getting the same result: one prejudging and one not prejudging. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "Chuck, even though we did end up with a higher Fed funds rate than we would have expected for a $1 billion borrowing assumpt... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Clearly, another way would be not necessarily to change itbut, as we observe what is happening in the course of operations, to adjust in the way we might adjust if we observed more excess reserves and a change in borrowing attitudes.We would be more willing to oversupply nonborrowe... | no | null | null | null | null |
216 | 218 | 19850213_207_5 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Maybe we can dispose of that issue quickly, if you haven't changed your opinion." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': "While we don't think it is monetary policy's role to deal with this, monetary policy is not going to be immune in that there is a great deal of sensitivity to interest rates. And if rates start to rise, I think perhaps some political pressure that currently is not on the Fed will gr... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': "There are serious debt problems; collateral value is falling; and it has become a fairly hot political issue in our District and elsewhere, as you can imagine.There are bills in every one of our [state] legislatures to try to provide some relief for the agricultural sector.Most deal... | no | null | null | null | null |
217 | 219 | 19850521_132_1 | MR. AXILROD. | "I think what you're observing is the interest sensitivity of M1." | I think what you're observing is the interest sensitivity of M1. This is why the models have been predicting large growth in M1. This was somewhat of a phenomenon in earlier periods. Part of the growth of the Super NOWs, of course, is related to the switching out of NOWs when the minimum went down from $2500 to $1000 a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'It also raises again the question that I have been raising for several years: If a large, and the fastest growing, component of M1 is paying a rate very close to the money market mutual funds rate, should you expect the aggregate that contains that rapidly growing component to behav... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "As the opportunity cost changes I think you would expect that the public's willingness to hold Super NOWs relative to money market funds would change; and it changes in precisely the direction that you would expect.So, I think this explains a part of the acceleration in M1 growth--n... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
218 | 220 | 19851001_128_10 | MR. FORRESTAL. | "If there were extreme changes in the value of the dollar one way or the other, I think that we ought to move aggressively." | A very low saving rate as well. The inflation picture looks pretty good. Everyone I have talked to doesn't see any price pressures at all. There are certainly no wage pressures in my area. Altogether, I think that the situation, while not dramatically great, is certainly better than it has been. And I think the outlook... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "I would think that perhaps we are going to have a little less strength in housing than in the Greenbook, but otherwise I am generally in accord. I think consumer spending is a real question mark here. My staff is telling me that they expect consumer spending to increase, especial... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "The people I talked to are seeing some forward momentum in the economy that they think is going to carry over into the fourth quarter and, indeed, into the first half of 1986.Now, that view of the economy may be influenced a little by conditions in the Southeast, which are relati... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
219 | 221 | 19851217_422_12 | MR. MORRIS. | "But there's a long time until the next meeting; and if the dollar should start strengthening in the exchange markets, I would lead off with a cut in the discount rate." | I think the gnomes would look at our situation and would say: "Well, the dollar is going down; the economic news is mixed but certainly not weak; and the perception is that monetary policy is very accommodative." What we actually have in the monetary numbers is a split decision: M1 and debt suggest a very expansionary ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "But we're not a closed economy. We have overhanging us a necessity to continue to finance a $140 billion current account deficit. So we have to keep in mind what the gnomes of Zurich are thinking about us. I hate to alarm, I hate to recognize-- "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', '... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I presume the center of gravity is toward some easing so we can get these money and credit figures really moving![Laughter.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "They're perverse; they might turn around the other way."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Maybe so.'}, {... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | sentence |
220 | 222 | 19860212_153_8 | MR. GUFFEY. | "I will just make one observation with respect to the energy situation and how it may impact my District." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Picking up on what Governor Johnson has just noted, I think there will be a greater impact on prices coming from the decrease in the oil price than there will be from the effects of the dollar, and I think the dollar effects will [begin to] show up later in 1986 and have a greater i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'and I think we really have to watch that situation carefully and [determine] what the lags look like in terms of commodity prices and how that filters all the way into other production prices.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 't... | no | null | null | null | null |
221 | 223 | 19860819_299_6 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "I can't entirely exclude a move, but the straight answer to your question is: I wouldn't count on it purely because of [concern about] exchange rate movements." | Well, I think the answer to that question is no. Whether I would exclude it entirely, I don't know. I am afraid neither of them will move without the other moving and I just [unintelligible]. I can find that out, but my suspicion is they won't. I can't entirely exclude a move, but the straight answer to your question i... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What is sterling doing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "It has gotten some strength but net, on balance, it's down against the dollar. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think both the British and the French are probably in an untenable position. They woul... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That probably [now] appears as a very small blip on the charts.But they were both very sensitive to that fact.We probably discussed that as late as a Tuesday, at an Open Market Committee meeting, and they had told me the previous weekend that they would move.But on Wednesday, ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
222 | 224 | 19861216_442_16 | MR. BOYKIN. | "So, while there is not anything really to brag about openly, we are going to go along and gradually improve." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "Nonresidential construction is off. So it's a very mixed picture, Mr. Chairman, in the Southeast. Despite that, there is still a fair degree of confidence among most people outside of Louisiana that we are going to have continued expansion in 1987. There is the evidence that the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "Now, that's a lower price than we have heard before.The farm sector also is fairly depressed in most areas of the Southeast.We are looking for greater liquidation, mostly due to the drought that we suffered last summer.More and more farmers are being forced to the wall and land p... | no | null | null | null | null |
223 | 225 | 19861216_490_1 | MR. TRUMAN. | "Well, [unintelligible] you're right about how the rest of the world is behaving." | Well, [unintelligible] you're right about how the rest of the world is behaving. Your words about the rest of the world suggested an even soggier picture; that too could affect the base prices and then you don't have the given exchange rate change. Whatever you want to assume about [unintelligible] could be less-- | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Moving both at the same time is built in this four-quarter time period-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': "It just seems to me, Ted, that we do have quite ample capacity at a lot of these manufacturers in basic industry areas worldwide. The evidence seems to point to increased... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'It seems to me that if the price pattern is stronger we will then get more desire to hold inventories and the economy could turn out to be stronger than the staff estimates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "Well, there's another factor too.To the extent--"}, {'speaker': 'CHAIR... | yes | no | null | null | null |
224 | 226 | 19861216_515_4 | MR. JOHNSON. | "Although I favored [a tilt] last time, I feel a bit more strongly about it this time." | I'll volunteer. After condensing all of this--what I hear and the way I feel--I don't feel strongly about changing monetary policy from where we were before. I still think that a $300 million borrowing target is about right. Although I favored [a tilt] last time, I feel a bit more strongly about it this time. I think w... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, it dissipates slowly in the model. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "We'll go and have a short lag for coffee. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, after half of an afternoon and most of the morning we have to get to a decision. Who would like to say s... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And you're saying that the lag is more than six months?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, the total lag would be more than six months.The models probably were projecting a bit more of a slowdown over the last couple of months than we actually had.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAI... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
225 | 227 | 19870211_417_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "That's one of my language changes here: not just passively "could" but "should."" | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "I think I've got five points. You have four, you're saying? "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You can get but so many in the paragraph. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "No, no I think I've got it. You're saying: first, there's no target as ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And at a particular time during the year, the implication is that we may specify a target.Those four thoughts somehow we should get in the paragraph.I know that's pretty vague.We'll come back with [specific] language; I think it needs a little massaging.Is that acceptable, gen... | no | null | null | null | null |
226 | 228 | 19870331_265_12 | MR. FORRESTAL. | "But even if our trading partners don't make those moves, if the dollar were to fall somewhat more I'd be prepared to go ahead unilaterally on our own." | As I look at the domestic economy, Mr. Chairman, I don't see any case at all for doing anything with respect to policy at the present time. We have had reports around the table this morning that reflect perhaps somewhat better economic conditions than we had last time. The forecast isn't all that bad, although inflatio... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': "I'm not sure that I would be prepared to go to $500 million. On the other hand, I feel that there may be some advantage to showing some modestly higher interest rates earlier rather than later--that is, to permit the market to understand that somewhat higher interest rates effected ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Having that in mind, and trying to capture that within the framework of the way we talk about these things, that is somewhere in the "B-C" area.I\'m not sure that I would be prepared to go to $500 million.On the other hand, I feel that there may be some advantage to showing some mod... | yes | yes | null | contradiction | utterance |
227 | 229 | 19870331_492_1 | MR. BLACK. | "That's the best one if we don't go with 4 to 7 percent." | That's the best one if we don't go with 4 to 7 percent. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If they came in at 4 percent, all other things being equal, would that be a cause for easing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Not if we had to restrain reserves. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Not [unintelligible] at this point in time. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. B... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I believe that a continuation of M2 along a 5 percent path would be consistent with the dollar stabilizing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "That's not true.That's not what the staff says.They have already built the March numbers into their projection."}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOH... | yes | yes | -5 sentences | ambiguous | null |
228 | 230 | 19870519_88_6 | MR. JOHNSON. | "And I've never gotten a really satisfactory explanation of which one makes the most sense." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "I think it really comes down to some doubt about whether we can keep these adjustments to be one-time adjustments or whether we're about to set off a new upward trend in inflation. I think that is the real change in the last six weeks to two months--that concern about inflation is s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "In the trade area, at least I feel better--not so much because we're exceeding expectations but because some evidence supporting the forecast of a turnaround, while not dramatic, seems to be there.There is some positive evidence that exports are improving and that we can expect some... | no | null | null | null | null |
229 | 231 | 19870922_240_2 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "I, personally, would go along with those vague notions of Governor Johnson on the issue of not fighting the world to try to get $600 million in this maintenance period, because it may be a futile endeavor." | Well, it is clear that there is a fairly strong consensus here for alternative B, at $600 million on borrowing; there is a small support amongst the voting members for a tilt toward something stronger in the language, and something on the other side. I, personally, would go along with those vague notions of Governor Jo... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice President Hendricks, would you like to comment? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HENDRICKS.', 'text': "Our preference would be to line up fairly closely with Si Keehn's suggestion on the decision. We would go with $600 million, but would lean on the side of further tightening. "}, ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'And I think Bob Black said it: any way you look at this--whether you look at rates, at the provision of reserves, or at the behavior of the aggregates--over the course of this year, we have taken some significant steps.And I am not quite sure, as I expressed earlier, what the impact... | yes | yes | utterance | null | utterance |
230 | 232 | 19880210_517_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. | "Yes, especially if Don thinks that the numbers are coming in a little higher anyway." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': '6-1/2 percent, yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': "Let's not argue about that. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I would suggest, what about 6 to 7 percent? Okay? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Put it that way--yes, I feel comfortable with that. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': "What are the numbers you're penciling in for the M growths?"}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "I'm sorry, for the--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Monetary Ms?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In the short term?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text':... | no | null | null | null | null |
231 | 233 | 19880210_584_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. | "You're calling a spade a spade." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '"Taking account of conditions in financial markets, somewhat lesser reserve restraint or somewhat greater reserve restraint would be acceptable depending on the strength of the business expansion, indications of inflationary pressures, developments in foreign exchange markets, as w... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '"The Committee agrees that the current more normal approach to open market operations remains appropriate; still sensitive conditions in financial markets and uncertainties in the economic outlook may continue to call for some flexibility in operations."'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GR... | no | null | null | null | null |
232 | 234 | 19880329_387_17 | MR. HOSKINS. | "If we don't get that, then I think we are going to get the inflation forecast that my own staff is turning out, which is very similar to yours." | The Fourth District is pretty much as I reported last time. Manufacturing activity is very strong. We have several firms, primarily in primary metals, that have reported that they are at capacity levels; they simply can't produce anything else. One of those firms is considering some kind of expansion at this point, bec... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'What it says about the longer-term prospect for real growth, I am not altogether sure, but it makes me marginally more confident about the outlook. As several people already have commented, the really striking feature about the outlook--both the one presented in the Greenbook and the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': "I, too, have heard a few scattered reports about double ordering, and I don't think there is any question that, at least at current exchange rates, a lot of businesses in our District certainly can compete with foreign producers and foreign products.As far as the national outlook is ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
233 | 235 | 19880630_184_1 | MR. JOHNSON. | "No, he is very responsible; I respect his judgment." | No, he is very responsible; I respect his judgment. So, on the wage front, once again I say there's nothing yet, but you do get the feeling that something is out there. At the same time, I think all of the strong good feelings going on now are a cumulative effect of the positive growth we've seen in the past. And where... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'He is. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "That's a fast turnaround in two weeks. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "He doesn't expect his own or his associates' [wages to go up], but he's worried about the inflationary pressures emanating elsewhere with no increases in sal... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think another year of accelerating prices relative to nominal wages might be a problem.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "I think the wage models don't have in them the ratio of imports to domestic demand, if you're going to do it that way.Because that's clearly ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
234 | 236 | 19890328_297_2 | MR. JOHNSON. | "That's all I need." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'On the Hoey survey, was that last survey taken before or after our discount rate [action]? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "I don't know. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "It's a February survey number. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "Yes, it was the last half of ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Or is it because other proxies don't give you as good a correlation with the very present?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "Yes, I think it's sort of suspicious too.This chart is plotted from 1978 because that's when the 10-year Hoey survey started.We have done some othe... | no | null | null | null | null |
235 | 237 | 19890328_331_3 | MR. FORRESTAL. | "But even if it is not a pause, even if we are seeing some real slowing, I think the risks of recession with a firmer policy are minimal." | Well, Mr. Chairman, I think that a somewhat firmer policy at the moment would be appropriate. My judgment is that we are, in fact, experiencing a pause and not a sustained downturn in the economy. But even if it is not a pause, even if we are seeing some real slowing, I think the risks of recession with a firmer policy... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "but I don't think it has been done. Too much additional tightening, I think, could negatively impact those third world nations. Finally, I'm very concerned about the dollar perhaps not performing as Ted and his people think it will--that it will stay strong and that that will prevent... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "Also, as Manley said, there have been some signs of slowing.I personally would argue that there's going to be some more coming, particularly in housing and in the auto industry.I haven't heard it mentioned but I think that the thrift situation is something we should be aware of, if f... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | sentence |
236 | 238 | 19891003_414_5 | MR. GUFFEY. | "I wanted that last time, as you may remember, and I've seen no accumulating evidence that suggests we are any closer to a recession at this meeting than we were at the last meeting." | [Unintelligible] and I think most of the comments around the table about using monetary policy with respect to the dollar are right on the mark. I don't think the old adage "you can't serve two masters" is to be taken lightly. I think monetary policy should be devoted to domestic economic policy and not to the dollar. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I\'m very sympathetic to the point that Lee Hoskins made because I tend to focus on the longer run, as I think he does. And I think our long-run problem is inflation rather than recession. I\'m also sympathetic to the points made by those who favor symmetry just because... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "A whole variety of things: the dollar, price stability, making room for export growth.You could make a pretty good argument based on the discussion around this table that we should be tightening policy.I'm not prepared to make it."}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "Y... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | -5 sentences |
237 | 239 | 19891114_206_3 | MR. KOHN. | "But the other factor was that policy had just eased and thinking about reversing that action after it had just been taken seemed so strange." | I gave this some thought. There were two major factors weighing in my mind for not having an alternative C. One was that not having it in the Bluebook didn't mean the Committee couldn't vote on it at the meeting if it wanted to. But the other factor was that policy had just eased and thinking about reversing that actio... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "I think it's possibly quite feasible. I don't think we're in a situation where we're in danger of somehow letting the funds rate/discount rate relationship get out of whack or losing control over where it's running now. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': "I'd like you to talk a l... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "If the Committee were to decide to ease, for example, I do think that Mr. Sternlight could inject some more nonborrowed reserves, attain a funds rate that wasn't somehow out of control in relation to the discount rate, and borrowing would decline.Now, we said that under alternative A ... | yes | yes | null | contradiction | null |
238 | 240 | 19891219_99_5 | MR. MELZER. | "I think I know what would happen to the expectational effects and the credibility and so forth." | I had one question, Mike. You mentioned at the beginning that five years was a relatively short time frame in the sense, I think, that if you didn't get right at it there was no way you could slow money growth by enough, quickly enough. I don't want to read too much into what you said. My question revolves around what ... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "Well, [remember] some of the pieces of 2X4s that floated around this building that came in from builders in the early '80s! I think that suggests that at a certain point the sectoral burden gets a little heavy, and they speak out even if it's by flooding [us with] 2X4s. Anyway, thank... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "Maybe nationally the cost was very marginal, but when two states assumed about the whole cost it looked a little heavy.Also, in looking ahead at sacrifices, I think you have to be much more micro in your analysis and think far more about sectoral differences, because it doesn't all a... | yes | no | null | null | null |
239 | 241 | 19891219_284_1 | MR. LAWARE. | "Well, we better make sure that we can do it." | Well, we better make sure that we can do it. | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'I think it has a nice added-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Again, I don\'t want to seem like I\'m marketing that idea because I\'m not sure I believe it myself. But the fact of the matter is that there is almost this mystique about that period in the \'50s and ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "And that's where I would come out, in part because of the concerns that John LaWare expressed.I don't think we get anywhere if we just say we're going to get therebut we're not going to tell you by when.I think we have to give something like a two-year band or something, depending on... | yes | no | null | null | null |
240 | 242 | 19891219_452_1 | MR. BLACK. | "If we didn't approve it, Sam would end up having to buy some dollars with some of his earnings on foreign currencies to stay below the limit." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': "Jerry, it would be helpful if you'd speak up a little. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I was saying that I think one can make a pretty good analytical case that even in the time frame of the past six weeks or so the risks have shifted in the direction in which ra... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "One is that I do think we have had a genuine measure of success in terms of the Treasury's attitudes and eagerness.That's not to say, as Alan said, that it guarantees anything for the future.But I think there has been some clear progress there.The second thing is more fu... | no | null | null | null | null |
241 | 243 | 19901002_301_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "If we believe that the oil price goes up and the [unintelligible] comes down and there's no wage effect, it's a complete washout." | If we believe that the oil price goes up and the [unintelligible] comes down and there's no wage effect, it's a complete washout. There is no way to keep the [higher] price in there unless it embodies itself in some nonprice cost, in other words wage costs, cost of capital, or something. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "What I'm trying to say is that there are two types of inflation. One is the oil price pass-through. The other is whether it embodies itself in the wage structure. It's the second that we have to be very careful to avoid. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "That's right. "... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "If, as I thought was stated, most of the weakness was a result of this supply shock, there's nothing we can do about that really."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Oh no, it's more weakness than that.I would say that the appropriate policy under the oil price supply shoc... | yes | no | null | null | null |
242 | 244 | 19910206_434_1 | MR. MELZER. | "I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year." | I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year. | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "Which, of course, we haven't seen. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy. But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "But no matter how you measure reserves or anything else, in the kind of situation we're in right now the only way that we can deal with this conundrum would be to run a policy, in effect deliberately, that is prepared to accept the risks of very large amounts of free res... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | null |
243 | 245 | 19910206_435_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. | "That's part of the reason why I made the suggestion about trying to get some reserves out through the discount window in a way in which Peter could do a pretty good job of protecting against--" | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy. But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no matter how you measure reserves, would be the willingness of this Committe... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'And by definition if there is something real to this so-called credit crunch, that approach to policy--no matter how you define the base or how you define reserves--carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "Which,... | no | null | null | null | null |
244 | 246 | 19910703_189_1 | MR. HOSKINS. | "The District isn't showing anything much different from what anybody else's District seems to be showing, at least from what I've heard here." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, I wanted to come here today also and congratulate Mike by confirming that the recovery started in the quarter in which he called it. However, I was not able to get hold of Mr. Smuckers to get my apple ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "That's now beginning to spill through to some other sectors of the economy.GE in Louisville has called back 1,000 employees because of what they see going on in homebuilding.As far as banking conditions go, if you compare the numbers in the first quarter to the first quarter a year ... | no | null | null | null | null |
245 | 247 | 19920701_266_8 | MR. MULLINS. | "The difficulty I see--and the reason I would agree with your proposal--is that it's simply difficult to send a clear signal in the current environment with the context of a distorted M2; it's difficult to separate the policy target from the questions of distortions of M2." | I would support your proposal. I do think there's a case for cutting [the range] a half point in 1993. It seems to me that it's simply time to do so in the normal rhythm of things. It was not unusual to skip last year. In the summer of '88 the Committee cut the ranges for the following year, skipped '89, cut in '90, an... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "We are working hard to reformulate the guidelines to policy [to foster] new understanding when that's possible to do. I'm not sure when it will be possible to do, which is the only other point I would like to make. I think we have to discipline ourselves and probably educate the Con... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'It would be a mistake if we were to try to bluff our way through and say that we know more than we know or alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum, if we were to stick our head in the sand and say: "Never mind, we are still going to fly on the same old instruments."I don\'t ... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
246 | 248 | 19920818_202_5 | MR. JORDAN. | "I would be with John LaWare on preferring symmetric language at this point because I think things are in motion except--and this is not a policy issue but a communications issue--if we went with symmetric now, when that is released in the middle of October after the next meeting I would expect that the headlines would... | I feel a lot more comfortable with several [recent] developments: the rebound in July in reserve growth, in the monetary base, and in Ml, whereas everything was negative in June. And I would want to see that--especially [the growth in] reserves--continue to be positive. I wouldn't want foreign operations to show up and... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I agree with Bob Forrestal. I would prefer to ease now in the direction of "A" but certainly find "B" with asymmetric language acceptable. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': '"B" asymmetric. '}, {'spe... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "However, it does seem to me that we've had considerable slippage in economic activity from the first quarter.I see very few signs or areas of strength that will give us any forward momentum here.I ask myself the question, first of all: What good would easing do at this point?It's... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
247 | 249 | 19930203_250_2 | MR. MELZER. | "I think some reduction in the M2 range is important." | I had some similar thoughts, but I would favor alternative II, though I could certainly live with what you have suggested. I think some reduction in the M2 range is important. I don't think one can emphasize too much this credibility point that you made and [the need to avoid] any perception whatsoever that we're cavin... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "It seems to me it would be desirable to make 3 points in the testimony. The first is the one you emphasized, that this is a technical adjustment designed to accommodate a decline in money demand and, therefore, it wouldn't be expected to produce lower growth in 1993. The other thing ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': "So, I would say that if we want to avoid what Jerry Corrigan was afraid of, and that is an outcome outside our range of expectations, we'd want to have a range of 2-1/2 to 5-1/2 percent.That's just to throw another option on the table."}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'A narr... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | sentence |
248 | 250 | 19930203_315_12 | MR. ANGELL. | "I don't have the courage to vote to tighten at this point, Mr. Chairman, because I'm hopeful that this will get reversed." | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your prescription. I am very tempted, of course, to believe that we may be falling behind in regard to maintaining price level targeting by targeting the fed funds rate at 3 percent. I think all of us know the difficulty of targeting M2; we've all discussed that. Certainly, there's difficulty... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "And hopefully this recovery will lose all of its head wind, if I may use that phrase that I've got myself involved in. But as I said earlier, I think that policy is beginning to look better by the day in retrospect. And I find it hard to think of any reason why we would want... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "It's a very small part, obviously, of the gross domestic product, but it is a very large part of the collateral for the financial intermediary system and a horrendous part of the nonperforming loans which are particularly important because intermediaries are very highly leve... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | sentence |
249 | 251 | 19930323_25_5 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "But I personally don't feel comfortable with anything new in here." | I think you're raising a separate issue, which ought to stand on its own merits, and that is whether we look good or bad. As I understand the proposal that Governor Mullins and his subcommittee are making, it is to consolidate already existing documents and in effect not to create anything new. It's the new that I thin... | [{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': "I'd like to support Governor Kelley on this. I thought the one-page summary was probably one of the more positive new things coming out of this. A lot of these news services will extract from the summary; and if we give them what we'd like them to extract, I think we have a better... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "And it can be done in a way that presents the FOMC's story in a light that we approve of as opposed to relying on some reporter who may not understand what he's reading and who plows through the policy record and picks out a phrase here and there that suits his purpose and presents ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
250 | 252 | 19930707_168_1 | MR. PRELL. | "Certainly, this would be the case going back several years before this, but I don't have data going back much earlier." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "Yes, we've used the ECI here. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': "And this has been falling like that since the '70s? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, undoubtedly, you [have to] go back to a period when interest rates were moving sharply enough to have significantly ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Yes, we can provide you with a longer time series.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Is this an unusual amount of change?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "The computer prices have been falling fast for so long that if we stretched this back--at least going back to the '70s... | no | null | null | null | null |
251 | 253 | 19940204_206_9 | MR. KELLEY. | "Number one is that consumer debt seems to be accelerating, and this is at a time when the ratio of consumer debt to worth is still at an all-time high." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "The CRB futures price index is up by nearly 13 percent from its level a year ago despite a very significant decline in energy prices. An even sharper increase is seen in the Board's experimental commodity price index when the food and crude oil components are omitted. In addition, l... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "We project that the CPI will move up sharply in 1994 and will be even higher in 1995.Indeed, there may be some early warning signs that the economy's disinflationary course has already come to an end.When its volatile food and energy components are removed, the CPI rose at a 3.4 per... | no | null | null | null | null |
252 | 254 | 19940706_450_4 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "If the CPI came in at 0, we probably wouldn't move." | Let me be very specific using Jerry Jordan's CPI as the model. Let us assume our normal expected CPI just for the sake of argument was .3 percent and we were asymmetric toward tightening. If the CPI came in at 0, we probably wouldn't move. If it came in at .6 percent, we would tighten. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "As I said in my briefing, the use of asymmetry in the past has been an expression of the Committee's disposition about how it would like to react to incoming data. If you think the risks are more on one side than on the other ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "We don't have a specific formulation.Asymmetry merely means a general sense of the Committee's disposition or the direction of our bias."}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'How long we should expect you to wait before making a change?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.'... | yes | yes | null | null | null |
253 | 255 | 19940927_143_12 | MR. HOENIG. | "Their margins are coming under pressure and how much more they can be squeezed is on their minds." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'What we have been doing on the funds rate does not look to me like either too low a level or one that came up too slowly. But I have problems with what happens between the 1-year and the 2-year maturities. Why is the 1-year forward rate for the 1-year maturity 7-1/2 percent? It leav... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "I would have expected that if moving up to the 4-3/4 percent level from the 3 percent level in the funds rate was behind the curve, then we would have seen symptoms of that in reserves, central bank money, demand deposits, other things suggesting that there was something in the mark... | no | null | null | null | null |
254 | 256 | 19950201_937_19 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "But now that issue is moot because we have a Treasury take-out." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The question is, did we realistically have the option of saying, "this is a slippery-slope issue and we would prefer not to be involved." The answer is that it would have been \'irresponsible for us not to get involved. The reason I went up to the Hill at one point to speak ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The crucial thing that we have to do, no matter how we get involved in this, is to review Mexico\'s forthcoming plan.We were fully aware when this began that we were dealing with a serious problem.We knew that if we did not get involved, there were going to be some very seri... | no | null | null | null | null |
255 | 257 | 19950328_137_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "That sounds like a precedent to me!" | That sounds like a precedent to me! [Laughter] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Whatever happened to the chart presentation? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "We didn't have it in February. It's an open issue for July. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "We don't have it today? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'No. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The mark is at extraordinary highs on a trade-weighted basis.The mark clearly is strong--however defined--against us, against Europe, against everybody.There also is a problem of an ever appreciating yen.Now, something may break that at some point, but until it does I think there ar... | yes | no | null | null | null |
256 | 258 | 19950706_134_1 | MS. JOHNSON. | "I did not mean to suggest any pejorative notion by using the word "deflation."" | I did not mean to suggest any pejorative notion by using the word "deflation." I meant it literally as just that the rate of change of certain prices was negative. Now, it is certainly true that it is happening in the goods sector because to some degree what you described has happened. That is, we have opened up--a lit... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "The price of these things, converted into the equivalent of some other currency, has to fall either by a depreciation of the yen or by declines in absolute yen prices. Whether it is proper to think about that as deflation or not, I don't know. What else could happen? If the yen is n... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'We would say "Yes and try to get it."All the stocks listed on the Nikkei, if aggregated, would have exceeded the present value of GDP for the world.We thought it probably wasn\'t true.Or at that time a cantaloupe cost 70 U.S. dollars.If you think during the course of the decade that... | no | null | null | null | null |
257 | 259 | 19950706_292_5 | MS. YELLEN. | "I think we are dealing with an imperfect law that asks us to communicate our objectives in an imperfect way." | I would like to associate myself with Governor Lindsey's comments. I would favor alternative III for 1995 [Laughter] and alternative II for 1996. I certainly understand the sentiments that you expressed, Mr. Chairman. This is not the most important decision we are going to make this morning. I think we are dealing with... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I think it would be important for us to give Senator Mack the impression that we are eager to work with him on this--not the impression that he is dragging us along kicking and screaming. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, and we are trying specifically to do that. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I wanted to talk to them about it before sending the letter over.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'A letter will be going out![Laughter] I said in the letter that I was not speaking for the Board or the FOMC but was expressing my own views on certain issues.But I must sa... | yes | no | null | null | null |
258 | 260 | 19960131_261_14 | MR. PARRY. | "I see no reason to change now." | Mr. Chairman, I would not favor reducing the federal funds rate. I would refer to President Boehne's comment about our deeds speaking more loudly than our words. If you look at the members' economic projections for 1996, we are saying in effect that we are at potential. The midpoint of the central tendency of the Commi... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'For now, I am comfortable with the idea that it is appropriate to move the funds rate down and see whether or not inflation in fact comes in at a lower rate. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "Mr. Chair... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'If I thought that the Greenbook/Bluebook projections were correct about a 5-1/2 percent funds rate producing a 3 percent inflation rate out through 1997, I would have to be arguing for raising the funds rate.The only way I can support reducing the funds rate is to be consistent and ... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
259 | 261 | 19960131_269_4 | MR. STERN. | "There may be an opportunity here, were we to do nothing, to do a bit better on inflation." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The current situation gives me some considerable pause. As I try to look at the real interest rate situation, Charts 4 and 5 in the "Financial Indicators" package don't suggest to me that real rates are particularly high, at least relative to history. There may be an opportunity here, were we t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "All those things incline me to caution. Sometimes I think inertia can be a good thing, and I am feeling the need for a lot of it at this point. I hear Jerry Jordan's point, but I do think it needs to be said that it may be more difficult this year than in most other years to move ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "Beyond what she said, it's not at all clear to me yet how much of a real deceleration in activity is actually occurring.We have bad weather, government shutdowns, and structural changes in the retail sector all fogging up, in my view, the meaning of much of the recent information.... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
260 | 262 | 19960521_140_13 | MR. BOEHNE. | "On balance, I prefer symmetry mainly because I can't imagine that you, Mr. Chairman, would make a decision to move toward tightening in this particular environment without a consultation with the Committee." | Several issues have been talked about around the table, and in the end people have to make their own judgments. With regard to the issue about the economy and the structure of the economy, most of the models, which I think the Greenbook reflects, clearly indicate that we should have had accelerating inflation over the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The way I thought about it was that, on the basis of the information we were getting, the equilibrium real funds rate appeared to have moved down from what I felt was an appropriate level, and to avoid a de facto tightening of policy, the nominal funds rate needed to come down from ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "I didn't view the reduction in the federal funds rate on January 31 as an insurance policy against the downside risks in the real economy.The way I thought about it was that, on the basis of the information we were getting, the equilibrium real funds rate appeared to have moved down... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
261 | 263 | 19960703_393_8 | MS. PHILLIPS. | "Like Governor Meyer, I am uncomfortable with the current ranges, but I do not want to use them as a monetary policy signal." | It is. certainly premature to restore M2 and M3 to their full status as policy indicators, but I do think that we should recognize that they are performing a bit better in terms of velocity and GDP growth. I thought David Lindsey's chart presentation was extremely useful, and I particularly liked the first chart that s... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'At this point, I think keeping the M2 range where it is will send the message that we want to send concerning our reasonably near-term objectives relating to price stability. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Mr... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'At this time, however, I am going to defer to the judgment of the Chairman, but I hope that between now and the next time I have to vote on this issue, we will find some means to improve the way that we handle the monetary growth ranges.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ... | yes | yes | sentence | neutral | utterance |
262 | 264 | 19960703_478_5 | VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH. | "I think the Committee could give certain guidelines for the Desk and the Chairman to follow." | Yes, and we do not want a leaked list or somebody trying to obtain it through a FOIA request. A list cannot be leaked or released if it does not exist. My preference would be for us to have a discussion to arrive at a sense of the Committee concerning standards. The latter might include the requirements that a country ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do you think we should have at least some indication from the Committee as to the eligible list of countries or some mechanism for making that sort of judgment other than requiring it to be made by the Chairman or the Vice Chairman of this Committee? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CH... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'A Manager thinks that through a few times before making that phone call, and I believe that would be appropriate.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Just a couple of questions relevant to this issue: The real danger here, as you imply... | yes | no | null | null | null |
263 | 265 | 19970325_17_6 | MR. PRELL. | "Another factor to keep in mind is that we have had a surge in income growth over the past year or so." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mike? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mike, I was a little uncertain as to the wealth effects on consumer spending in the Greenbook forecast. I had the impression that there certainly was ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I say that only half tongue in cheek.Questions for Peter?Starting with his second request, is there any objection to including the detailed portfolio information in the annual report?If not, we will assume that it is acceptable, and we need a vote on domestic operations.'}, ... | no | null | null | null | null |
264 | 266 | 19970930_78_17 | MR. BOEHNE. | "But I think the time has come for us to be less defensive, and the way we do that is to adopt the stance of being open minded and alert and let the truth, whatever it is, fall out wherever it might." | The economy in the Philadelphia District currently is performing much as it has in recent months. It features steady growth at a moderate pace, tight labor markets, and little or no upward pressure on prices. In commercial real estate, vacancy rates are low and rents are rising. More capacity is in train, however, and ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I do not mean to ignore some other developments, which I will keep in mind when Don Kohn presents his alternatives to us a little later. These include a real fed funds rate that remains high in an historical context, core CPI inflation that has been trending lower, pipeline inflatio... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'A host of special factors seem to be affecting various parts of the economy, but fundamental economic forces may well come back to bear on the course of this cycle.I am alerted to that possibility when I look at the level of resource utilization throughout the economy, and that make... | yes | no | null | null | null |
265 | 267 | 19980204_287_3 | MS. MINEHAN. | "Maybe it will be more productive this time in the sense that we will have a longer period of low inflation to observe." | I very much favor your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I agree it would be useful to revisit our discussions about inflation even though we have had many of them without coming to any hard conclusions. Maybe it will be more productive this time in the sense that we will have a longer period of low inflation to observe. P... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We have been given a bonus that we did not earn. The question is, do we make good use of it or do we dissipate it? That may well be the usefulness of trying to focus on where we want to go and what we should do from here. I think the issues raised in our earlier discussions ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Now that inflation has come down a good deal, I think it is important that we focus more specifically on what we view as our price objective.I say that not only because it may help us to communicate to the public what we are trying to do, but I believe it will help the inner workings... | yes | null | null | null | null |
266 | 268 | 19980701_308_15 | MS. MINEHAN. | "In that regard, I would retain the tilt toward tightening as well." | Mr. Chairman, there is no question in my view that we currently face heightened risks. On the downside, the risks discussed during our lengthy review of the economic outlook yesterday and this morning stem from developments in Asia, Russia, and other places, projections of declining inventory investment over the short ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'That sort of constraint underlies the need to take advantage of opportunities to tighten policy when they arise in an environment like this. They do not arise very often, and the window of opportunity does not often stay open very long. I know people can disagree about this, but I... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I still think that an increase now in the funds rate would be prudent and could well increase the lifespan of this expansion.Having said that, I recognize that for many reasons that have been expressed around this table, this would not be a convenient time to tighten policy since ... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | sentence |
267 | 269 | 19981222_73_1 | MR. BROADDUS. | "Let me just respond to that, Mike." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "Having listened to the discussions at recent meetings, people have basically said they would be very happy if we had an outcome like that. So, I do not have a sense that, with our forecast based on a stable funds rate assumption, we are giving you something that does not provide a ba... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "I am not sure I fully grasp the point that President Broaddus is making.I will follow up bilaterally with him to make sure I have an understanding.But just to be clear on the basis of our assumption for the funds rate, let me say that our default is to assume a stable funds rate unle... | no | null | null | null | null |
268 | 270 | 19991116_33_3 | MR. JORDAN. | "Oil prices are among the many things that I have absolutely no confidence in my ability to predict, so I will go with your forecast." | Mike, you mentioned oil prices spiking. When I was reading the Greenbook, I was struck by the fact that in the very week in which oil prices were spiking, you were writing down a forecast that has the price going back down by $5 a barrel, 25 percent or so. Oil prices are among the many things that I have absolutely no ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Another element undoubtedly is the recent slump in emerging market economies and the attraction of the United States and U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven. Probably the central question for you is to what extent these so-called "imbalances" are reflective of an unsustainable cyclica... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'The NIPA revisions shuffled things around a bit, but the basic contours remain the same: The personal saving rate has plummeted in this decade; the private saving-investment balance has swung sharply into the negative, the counterpart being a considerable run-up in business and house... | yes | no | null | null | null |
269 | 271 | 19991221_139_2 | MR. GUYNN. | "I hope that won't be interpreted as any lack of enthusiasm for getting back to our work after the first of the year." | I prefer symmetry as well. I hope that won't be interpreted as any lack of enthusiasm for getting back to our work after the first of the year. I think all the arguments have been made. To change from symmetry at this point and give people even six weeks to try to figure out why we did it and whether we anticipate doin... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I prefer the symmetric one, Mr. Chairman. After all we have invested in Y2K preparations, with options and special liquidity programs, changing our bias as we get to this point near the end does not seem to me to be the best thing to do. To my mind the symmetric language makes clear... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': "I have a slight preference for the symmetric one because in my mind it really does put the horse before the cart in that it says quite clearly that first we have the rollover to the year 2000 and then we have next year.And I think it's important to keep reinforcing that sense of p... | yes | yes | utterance | null | null |
270 | 272 | 20001219_117_5 | MR. MOSKOW. | "So, I don't see any good side to it." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have a slight difference of opinion with my colleague, Mr. Parry, on the Wall Street Journal article. I consider that article very unfortunate because when leaks like that occur I think it makes us look bad as a central bank. We've had this discussion before. So, I don't see any good side to ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "When I was thinking about that possibility at the end of last week, I was concerned that the markets might find it a bit confusing in terms of what we are trying to communicate. Ironically, as it turns out, the article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal may make that less of a ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': "In my view a quarter point reduction in the rate now would still leave us with a tight policy, one that continues to slow the economy, and yet it would recognize the risks that we've talked about around the table.I believe it is likely that we will have a conference call and that we... | yes | no | null | null | null |
271 | 273 | 20001219_122_6 | MR. GUYNN. | "So I think your recommendation is the right one." | Mr. Chairman, I would prefer not to ease today. I don't know how you scored me on your note pad, but in the go-around I was trying to convey that I came with a view that a balanced risk statement would be the proper first move. My staff would tell you that we were debating until I left for the airport whether the slowd... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I thought the article was abominable. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Now you agree! So do I. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "So, I don't see any good side to it.Getting back to the subject at hand, clearly we are in a situation where we're all concerned that the slowing that we wanted to see and are now seeing is going to be excessive.As you and others have pointed out, no one knows with certainty whether... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
272 | 274 | 20011211_44_2 | MR. STOCKTON. | "But I don't think the Blue Chip forecast or our forecast is consistent with what is currently built into fed funds futures." | Yes, indeed. But I don't think the Blue Chip forecast or our forecast is consistent with what is currently built into fed funds futures. In some sense the experiment that we tried to construct in the Greenbook was to ask how much of an upward revision would the markets have had to make in their outlook. Now, that wasn'... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Therefore, the imperative to raise rates would not be so clear that we were going to build it into our forecast by the second half of 2002. As you know, we do have rates on an uptrend in 2003 as the economy gathers even more strength and as the unemployment rate begins to turn dow... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'One is that we would expect, if the Committee were not raising interest rates as much as the markets currently expect--or as the markets began to realize that the outcome was not going to be as strong as they currently anticipate--that there would be some subsidence in long-term i... | yes | yes | null | null | utterance |
273 | 275 | 20011211_180_12 | MR. STERN. | "And at least in my view our economy has a history of being resilient and largely self-correcting." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would prefer to leave policy unchanged today. Let me quickly sketch out the elements of my reasoning. Part of it I touched on earlier. I do think that the story in the mainstream Greenbook forecast is a reasonably convincing one and I'm certainly more confident about the outlook than I have b... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "In my view it's appropriate this time because I think it will help to underpin the consumer while the inventory cycle completes itself and corporate profits and capital spending slowly return to more normal levels. I also believe that the balance of risks should be toward weaker eco... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'So I still think the case is persuasive and in my view a 50 basis point cut is the best option.I recognize though that the tone of the economic data is a bit stronger in some respects and in some places this time.Therefore the argument for a half point is a little less compelling ... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
274 | 276 | 20020319_171_3 | VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH. | "And I would point out that if the next move has to be up, which I think it will be, we can certainly move from a balanced balance of risks statement." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I concur with your recommendation. And I would point out that if the next move has to be up, which I think it will be, we can certainly move from a balanced balance of risks statement. There is no reason at all in my view to inhibit us from doing that. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "But I also believe that our decisions are going to become progressively more complex. The one thing we're certain about is that the world doesn't move as smoothly as Vince has portrayed in his charts and it's not going to look that way later. Perhaps he should have taken the... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "And if we decide not to move in May, that would be accepted as well.By the time of the May meeting, I think we will have learned a good deal about what is happening to inventory investment and its impact on the economy and, of course, about trends in profits and capital inve... | yes | yes | -5 sentences | contradiction | -5 sentences |
275 | 277 | 20020924_192_5 | VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH. | "That's a lot easier to convey in a couple of words in the statement." | I think there's a little confusion about what we mean when we're talking about the importance of geopolitical events. It's not as if we mean that a geopolitical event is, say, that we start bombing Iraq three or four weeks from now. Maybe we will, and maybe we won't. Rather, the point is what the geopolitical environme... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': "I'm just wondering how you're going to get all of that in the statement! [Laughter] "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I wrote it in disappearing ink! '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'May I make a comment? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'te... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "If it doesn't happen that way, that will mean that the expansion is continuing, and indeed I think the possibility of a lot of momentum when the malaise is lifted is being underestimated.I do not believe that we can effectively make a judgment that economic activity is going... | yes | no | null | null | null |
276 | 278 | 20030129_140_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "You know, that's the issue of risk aversion right there." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "That is the sort of policy error that allows expectations to get out in front. It allows a spiral to develop that becomes very, very hard to reverse. If we react too aggressively, that also can be a policy mistake. But tightening too much because we're afraid of inflation or easing to... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "Having said that, I think there is a valuable lesson embedded here, and it goes to the discussion you were having about policy mistakes.It's better generally for policy to act too strongly than too weakly to developing situations.Serious policy errors have been made when policy doesn'... | no | null | null | null | null |
277 | 279 | 20030129_263_13 | MR. BROADDUS. | "So I would ask what sort of adjustments that would induce in the U.S. economy." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'One quick detail question: On the middle left panel of chart 5, what is the difference between the trend and the transitory components of structural productivity? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': 'The trend component was the part that we thought would persist; the trans... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is that a technical--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': "We've found over the last couple of years that inflation compensation inferred from the indexed debt is very sensitive to oil prices--a little oversensitive.So we can explain part of that by the run-up in oil pri... | no | null | null | null | null |
278 | 280 | 20030812_18_5 | MR. KOS. | "I don't believe the size of those countries, which is fairly modest, would be large enough to explain what we've seen." | I have not seen any data on that. I don't believe that the ECB makes those data available if they have them. Obviously, the euro is becoming used more actively. Some countries in eastern Europe have currency boards, but I don't know that that would explain the shift in the reflow of U.S. currency. I don't believe the s... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "Well, I'd say that the improvement that's apparent in Argentina--whether it will be long-lasting is a different question--no doubt has had an impact in getting people to use the domestic currency there. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "That's the reason I asked if th... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "The rate of inflation is falling everywhere.The decline in the growth of currency seems rather dramatic, and it calls out for an explanation.You're not about to give it to me![Laughter]"}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': "I wish I could.I don't know if Mr. Reinhart has any i... | yes | no | null | null | null |
279 | 281 | 20030812_154_6 | MR. KOHN. | "But like Governor Bernanke, I think we need to work on how we talk about our assessments and judgments regarding the economy and our objectives going forward, without perhaps being very specific." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also support both parts of your recommendation. I agree with those who've said that it's very difficult to talk about the future. And I play second fiddle to no one in my humility regarding my ability to forecast; as you can attest to over the years, that humility is well earned. I also agree... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': "Obviously, bad communication is much worse than no communication, but I wouldn't want to rule out communication completely as a way of trying to enhance our arsenal. Thank you. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Olson. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'I... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': "Now, the reaction of the Committee has been that it's so powerful that perhaps we want to stay away from it completely.[Laughter]But if we give no information about our future intentions, then somehow or another the market has to make an assumption or come to some conclusion about... | yes | no | null | null | null |
280 | 282 | 20030812_200_2 | MR. HOENIG. | "If we just repeat what we said before, we're signaling to everyone that policy is on hold." | On balance, I think it would be preferable to drop the last sentence because it does change the statement, which gets attention, and then expectations change. If we just repeat what we said before, we're signaling to everyone that policy is on hold. In terms of policy announcements or implications, I think that is the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I think we can convey Roger\'s sense of the message in that last sentence but cut down the use of the word "disinflation" by one, by dropping "aimed at raising" all the way through to "disinflation." In other words, Roger wants to convey that policy accommodation can be maintained... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "But this is an important issue, and I'd like to hear from those of you who have views one way or the other on this.Governor Gramlich."}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I\'ll suggest a compromise.A lot of people do word counts on these statements--count how often a par... | yes | null | null | null | null |
281 | 283 | 20030915_6_4 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "Let's see if we can get most of that out of the way and completed this evening, if possible." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Then we'll go to a broad discussion of the issues. I might add for those of you who have specific points of view that differ from what Vincent laid out or from what I laid out, we will use the discussion period for you to expound on your views. If your commentary gets too ex... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "As I said at the beginning, the fact that communication is the problem and not the fundamentals of what we do--namely, what the target funds rate is, how soon we move, and the size of any changes--suggests that we are handling those big things rather well.Communication shoul... | no | null | null | null | null |
282 | 284 | 20030915_129_8 | MR. STERN. | "Second, I think we should try to accelerate the release of the minutes whatever we do with the statement." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First of all, I count myself among those who don't think that our current policies are all that bad and in need of a major overhaul. I agree with most, but not all, of the comments that President Moskow just made. So let me offer a few quick suggestions and express a couple of concerns. As I un... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'We said that although the "foreseeable future" is "intended to cover an interval extending beyond the next FOMC meeting," the concept is necessarily elastic. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'What could be clearer! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'It clearl... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'We should think carefully about that--whether we really want to talk about the risks to price stability as opposed to the risks to the outlook for inflation.I think that\'s a question we should discuss as a group.The other part of option 4 was that, when a substantive change is cont... | yes | no | null | null | null |
283 | 285 | 20031028_136_1 | MR. REINHART. | "Well, I would say that, on one level, rapid growth in aggregate supply only raises the bar for the growth of aggregate demand that the Committee should desire to get the outcomes it wants." | Well, I would say that, on one level, rapid growth in aggregate supply only raises the bar for the growth of aggregate demand that the Committee should desire to get the outcomes it wants. So in that sense, there still could be unwelcome declines in inflation. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Vincent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Vincent, in the top panel of exhibit 4, there is a column labeled "unwelcome fall." One thing we\'ve learned in the last two quarters is that productivity has been extraordinarily strong. Certainly the probability... | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'That is, the Committee=s definition of a considerable period could be made contingent upon the outlook for further disinflation.One such possibility, given at the bottom right, would have the statement read that "the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained f... | yes | no | null | null | null |
284 | 286 | 20040316_140_12 | MR. KOHN. | "I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It will come as a surprise to no one that I have at least a mild preference for staying with the inflation risk toward the downside. In my mind, we haven't yet actually seen evidence--we have a lot of anecdotes but no real evidence--that inflation has even stabilized. It is true that core PCE h... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'In fact, I think we may have stayed with the phrase "unwelcome decline in inflation" too long. Those words in the statement don\'t seem to be reflective of the discussion we had this morning. So I would have a preference for a balanced risks statement on inflation. Thank you. '}, {'s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': "I think a change in our statement about the inflation risks is imminent; it's just a matter of exactly when it will be made."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': "Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I, too, would have at least a mil... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
285 | 287 | 20040630_147_2 | MS. JOHNSON. | "But, you know, when I read my own briefing I realize what it means--that this problem is going to continue to grow." | If U.S. macroeconomic policy remains well grounded, if the value of goods in terms of U.S. dollars is well maintained by this Committee, if nature doesn't impose some truly exogenous crazy event on the U.S. economy, and if U.S. fiscal policy could get a little better, I think those are the things that will determine ho... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "On the other hand, I was an adult in the 1970s and early 1980s, and I remember periods when the dollar was thought to be a very weak currency. And I remember periods when Federal Reserve policies weren't well regarded. So I'm not about to say that could never happen. I just don't s... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Karen, do you want to hazard a view on whether the probability of a benign adjustment exceeds that of a malign disorderly adjustment?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Ask her to predict the exchange rate!'}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "We're just not in t... | yes | null | null | null | null |
286 | 288 | 20040810_157_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "That's not what I said." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I\'m comfortable with the statement and with your recommendation. I just want to raise a question about your "no surprises" rule. That\'s not quite the way you framed it. I\'m a little uncomfortable being in a r... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': "And as I noted in my earlier statements, whether or not we pause at some point has to depend very much on the data; but I think the market also has given us some signals that a pause would not be completely unexpected, so we shouldn't worry too much.Finally, without piling it on, ... | no | null | null | null | null |
287 | 289 | 20040921_95_23 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "The problem here is that there is a wide consensus that this is the time we want the devaluation of the dollar to happen, not later when the economy may be in a weakened structural situation." | Not quite. Now, if I believed in the efficacy of intervention, which I do not, it would not surprise me to be sitting here and observing the sequence of events that Dino has described this morning. Dino is talking about reductions in volatility and related increases in stability. We're looking at an extraordinarily sta... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "There have been investment bank articles that I'm sure some of you have seen about how fifty years from now China, India, and Brazil are going to be the dominant economies in the globe.If that capital accumulation is realized, that's domestic demand in the rest of the world.The mar... | yes | null | null | null | null |
288 | 290 | 20041110_127_9 | MR. POOLE. | "If I think about where we were six months ago, I thought it was extraordinarily unlikely that we were going to remain at 1 percent on the funds rate." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation both for the increase in the funds rate and the statement. I'd like to offer just a couple of other observations. The reason the communications process is so important is that it's highly desirable that the market and the Federal Reserve read incoming data the same... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "I really feel that in our communication we now need to move back to something that says what we did, why we did it, maybe gives some perspective on the balance of risks, and leaves it at that. Whether we move there in December or in February--or in March, April, or May of next year... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "But my basic instinct says that we need to get out of the zero zone on the real fed funds rate and to a positive rate for any number of reasons, which you've done a better job of touching on than I ever could.I also would like to say that I think our use of language over the last y... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | utterance |
289 | 291 | 20050503_12_5 | MR. KOS. | "The thing I would note is that GM is a smaller component of the BBB index than it would be of the high-yield index." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': "Oh, I see. I'm sure that there would be an effect, but I haven't looked at this. As that paper was taken out, I guess it would tend to reduce the posted spreads. We did see that in the emerging-market indexes, as some countries defaulted and were taken out of the indexes. "}, {'speaker... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "To what extent do the GM, Ford, and collateral issues, as they move out of investment-grade into high-yield, impact the average yields of, say, BBBs?Clearly, we are getting a huge increase in the supply of marginally non-investment-grade bonds.We can see the impact all over ... | no | null | null | null | null |
290 | 292 | 20060510_154_9 | MR. STERN. | "I'm not exactly sure where right is, and so as a consequence of that I want to make sure that we have some flexibility going forward and that we continue to emphasize the data-driven nature of our decisions." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall, I think policy is currently well positioned to maintain price stability over time, and a 1/4 point increase today, which I favor, will on the margin enhance that position. As I noted earlier this morning, I do think the uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased, and it may ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "I always thought a sensible path for policy here would be to go up quickly and then kind of flatten out the trajectory. We kind of got caught in an every-time escalator and never were able to flatten out that trajectory. But we're in a position where we can both be concerned about inf... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'If we say we\'re worried about inflation and inflation comes in a little higher, markets will react very quickly.I think the new language of alternative B does this, and I support it.I think the key part is in row 4: "The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be ne... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
291 | 293 | 20061025_179_1 | MR. LACKER. | "Governor Kohn, concerning the assessment of risk, I think I heard you say about alternative B+ that you weren't sure what effect it would have." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': "I would say, President Minehan, that the reference in the minutes of the past two meetings to the staff's marking down the rate of growth of potential has certainly caught the attention of market participants. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Do you think it has caught eno... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Looking at what would have been referred to in a "moderate" or "solid" context, the numbers were different two years ago from what they are now.That creates an even greater level of possible confusion here.Is 2 percent good, bad, or indifferent?It depends on where you think potenti... | no | null | null | null | null |
292 | 294 | 20061212_220_13 | VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER. | "That distinction is important, I think, because I don't know how you get into repeating or summarizing your past position without inevitably getting into the broader set of choices that we're going to be debating in the Committee." | Let me just say a couple of things. I think Rick's point about education is right. You can make a statement educating people about the virtues of price stability and anchoring long-term inflation expectations and the reason that's important, without taking on the challenge of educating people today about alternative wa... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "You can say a lot that is positive--for example, the timeliness with which we bring the minutes out. Also, I can't see that people have difficulty understanding that we have issues left to resolve. If people ask a question about communications, we can say that we've taken really ma... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Actually, I think Vice Chair Geithner was slightly ahead of me.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'No, go ahead.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': "Thank you.I think Don's and your points, Mr. Chairman, are very well made.Coming at this maybe from a little diff... | yes | no | null | null | null |
293 | 295 | 20070321_238_4 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "I did not go to negotiate, I went to inform, and therefore I don't have any commitments to bring to you." | Thank you. I'd like to make a couple of prefatory remarks. Some of the issues here are political in nature, so I'd like you to know that I have consulted a bit with the Congress. I did not go to negotiate, I went to inform, and therefore I don't have any commitments to bring to you. But I was generally pretty encourage... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "Once we finish the discussion, the subcommittee will compile the results, try to ascertain where we are and what the center of gravity would be, and consider what the next steps might be, depending on what people say. On the trial run, I don't anticipate an extended discussion. If peo... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "We are not going to have staff briefings this morning, in part because they did such a good job on the memos that I didn't think we really needed to follow up with briefings this morning.But thank you all very much.We have two items on the agenda--the numerical specification of price ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
294 | 296 | 20071031_267_9 | VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER. | "Bill, I think you asked a good question." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'For example, today, given that we are having a policy move and I am not sure that everyone around the table had anticipated that move today in their path, will we be articulating that these are not the numbers that we came into the meeting with, but these are the numbers that we t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'In terms of this initial launch--again emphasizing the fact that there really is a lot of consensus on the Committee because we know that the press loves to create the opposite of consensus because it sells newspapers--the more we can be supportive and to the extent that we can loo... | no | null | null | null | null |
295 | 297 | 20080130_99_1 | MR. MADIGAN. | "Well, that is a hard question, actually." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'What is the message that comes out of the projections--that is, if I am talking to the press or to others and they say, "What do I make of all of this?" My question to you is, What do you make of all of this? What is the message for the implications for policy or the implications for... | [{'speaker': 'MR. WASCHER.', 'text': "But without much to go on, they don't take a very strong stand on whether they do a very good job of picking up the turning points because they don't have any history on which to base their analysis.So I think there are reasons to suspect that that is possibly the case, but I don't... | no | null | null | null | null |
296 | 298 | 20080318_105_2 | VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER. | "I think there was a pretty big change this morning at least in risk perceptions today across a bunch of markets." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'So right now as we speak, it is ten in the 100 camp, eight in the 75 camp, and two in the 50 camp. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay. Thank you. Questions? Vice Chairman. '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'You may judge that a policy decision today to implement somewhat less easing than markets expect and a statement that implies somewhat greater concern about inflation could be helpful in leaning against inflation expectations and any sense in markets that you are indifferent to dow... | no | null | null | null | null |
297 | 299 | 20080430_289_7 | MR. ROSENGREN. | "I think we could be a little more innovative--I agree with President Lacker's point--but I think that the H.4.1 does seem to have an effect; and if we will be doing all these other things, taking another look at the H.4.1 and making sure that we don't have more untapped flexibilities probably makes a lot of sense." | Okay. Just a quick question, which doesn't have to be answered now--given all of the financial turmoil, it would be interesting to see whether in other countries that have these different arrangements there was a decrease in either overnight or term lending with counterparties. Given the extent to which you can just wo... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "We can try to keep it secret, but there's a broad ability in the market to infer when somebody goes to the window by their behavior before that. I'm saying that I don't think we should get our hopes up about ever eliminating stigma. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': "Oka... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Basically everything clears through their equivalent of Fedwire, so they know in real time what the balances are.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.Did you have a question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "A comment about stigma.Every financial transaction that... | yes | no | null | null | null |
298 | 300 | 19770118_107_1 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans." | The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans. | [{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': "I just want to say that I'm going to withhold any such determination. It is in effect a loan. Until I talk to, if necessary, to experts whether this is a loan or a purchase of foreign currencies that the Treasury-- "}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'I use "repurchase agreement,... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'That will be in a written record?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': "It should be written-in that, in the normal course of events, as we consider our various directives, we'll take this up, among others.That should be reported to files."}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'W... | no | null | null | null | null |
299 | 301 | 19770118_487_10 | CHAIRMAN BURNS. | "I would say that, for the coming month, it would be an unacceptable increase." | Increase in both. Let me give you the multifamily: August--366; September--560; remember there was a sudden increase associated with special activity by HUD; October--477; November--479; December--617. On the other hand, building permits figures show somewhat different results: July 1,215; August 1,296; September 1,504... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': '[Lunch break] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Now we are ready for item 4. Let me give you the housing figure. Here is the way they have been running, to give you a frame of reference: August--1,537,000; September--1,840,000; October--1,814,000; November--1,716,000; ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Yes, but I might add that it seems as certain as death and taxes in May and June.The refunds that we are projecting--and we could be off again on that projection of the amount of refund--but if it does turn out to be $3 billion higher, it's likely it will bulge in March."}, {'speak... | yes | yes | utterance | null | utterance |
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